Obama Builds Real Lead in Presidential Contest
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- Rudolph Chase
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1 Obama Builds Real Lead in Presidential Contest Report on post-convention survey September 14, 2012
2 2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. The survey of 1000 likely 2012 voters (1000 weighted) nationwide was conducted from September 8 to 12, Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence.
3 3 Key Findings Obama leads by 5 points on the ballot, to percent against Mitt Romney. All of the President s gains came with what we have called the Rising American Electorate young people, minorities, and unmarried women the new broad base for progressives. This was a base convention for Democrats whose base forms nearly half of the electorate. Obama is now winning 68 percent of unmarried women matching his 2008 level with this group. Romney s running mate, Paul Ryan, is not helping the ticket. His personal rating has not improved in the three weeks since the Republican convention stuck in slightly negative territory. The engagement gap: Nearly an equal number of Democrats and Republicans now say they are following the election very closely. But minorities, unmarried women, and particularly women, trail the electorate overall on this key measure. Both candidates improved their personal images in the conventions, but Mitt Romney remains in negative territory and he is running out of opportunities to change voters gut feelings about him. In our monthly tracking dating back to January 2011, Mitt Romney has yet to receive a net positive personal rating. Obama makes gains, but the weak economy still helps Romney. Obama has narrowed Romney s advantage on the economy to a 2-point deficit, but that still creates downward pressure in the race. There is no improvement in the country s economic mood, even if there is greater confidence in its leadership.
4 Political climate 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 4
5 5 Direction of the country: strongest in 3 years Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold The state of the economy. Right Direction Wrong Track Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12
6 6 Tough economy, with no improvement in 2012 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold The state of the economy. Warm Cool Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12
7 Image bump for everyone Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and meaning not particularly warm or cold. Barack Obama Democratic Party Democrats in Congress Republican Party Republican Congress 2010 Election /12/2010 4/20/2010 7/29/ /16/2010 2/9/2011 5/25/ /18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/12/2012 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past two years. Data represents MEAN ratings, likely voters.
8 8 Obama, Democrats continue to enjoy favorability gap with Romney, Republicans Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. President Congress Parties Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 51.9 Mean:.0 Mean:.6 Mean:.7 Mean: 48.0 Mean:.0 Net: +7 Net: -4 Net: -8 Net: -17 Net: -2 Net: Barack Obama Mitt Romney Democrats in Congress Republican Congress Democratic Party Republican Party
9 9 Obama a net 11 points more favorable than Romney Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Barack Obama Mitt Romney Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 51.9 Net: +7 Mean:.0 Net:
10 Opinion of Ryan hasn t moved; not helping the ticket Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Paul Ryan Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean:.3 Net: -1 Mean:.6 Net: Percent identifying: 83% August Percent identifying: 85% September 10
11 11 Negative ratings of Romney down after Republican convention Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mitt Romney. Warm Cool Mitt Romney Cool Warm Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12
12 12 Among white non-college Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mitt Romney. Warm Cool Mitt Romney Among white non-college Cool Warm Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12
13 13 The vote matchup: After his convention, Obama s lead up to 5 points I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? September /11/2011 5/25/ /18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/12/2012 Obama Romney
14 In battleground states, Obama gains I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Presidential Battleground States September /11/2011 5/25/ /20/2011 5/1/2012 8/27/2012 Obama Romney *Note: The presidential battleground is composed of PA, WI, MI, NC, NV, CO, NM, VA, FL, IA, OH, and NH. 14
15 15 Race tightening among white non-college voters I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? White non-college-educated September /11/2011 5/25/ /18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/12/2012 Obama Romney
16 16 Obama trending upwards among suburban voters I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Suburban 63 September /11/2011 5/25/ /18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/12/2012 Obama Romney
17 17 Makes big gains among unmarried women I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Unmarried women September /11/2011 5/25/ /18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/12/2012 Obama Romney
18 18 Strong among youth last two months I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Youth September /11/2011 5/25/ /18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/12/2012 Obama Romney
19 Obama ahead on potential voters, loyalist support Potential: 53% 39 Obama Not Obama Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable Potential: 49% 35 Romney Not Romney Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable 19
20 20 No enthusiasm gap: Democrats are following nearly as closely as Republicans How closely have you been following news about candidates for this year's presidential election -- very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Following the race very closely 53 All voters Democrats Independents Republicans
21 21 But engagement among important Obama voters still lagging How closely have you been following news about candidates for this year's presidential election -- very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very closely All voters Minorities Rising American Electorate Unmarried women Youth
22 22 Obama gains, but Romney with lead on the economy Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Barack Obama or the Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue The economy. The economy September Total Romney better +2 Total Obama better May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Obama Romney
23 Voters trust Obama more on Medicare Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue Medicare. Medicare Obama much better Romney much better Obama Romney
24 Obama approval at 49 percent Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Total Approve Total Disapprove Barack Obama Inauguration 2010 Election /23/2008 3/8/2009 6/2/2009 9/17/2009 3/18/2010 7/29/2010 1/11/2011 5/25/ /20/2011 6/28/2012 9/12/2012 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys since the 2008 election. Before inauguration, question read: Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president-elect? 24
25 Congressional race still dead even I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE or REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE*? Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 2008 Election Health care reform 2010 Election /6/2008 7/26/2009 2/23/2010 7/29/ /18/2010 6/21/2011 2/14/2012 9/12/2012 * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic
26 WORLD HEADQUARTERS 10 G Street, NE Suite 0 Washington, DC T: F: EUROPEAN HEADQUARTERS 5 Carrington House 6 Hertford Street London, UK W1J 7SU T: +.(0) F: +.(0) LATIN AMERICAN HEADQUARTERS Cabrera 6060, 7D C14 BHN Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina T:
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