The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities

Transcription

1 The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities Report on new survey of Republicans February 2016

2 Methodology National Web-Survey of 800 Likely 2016 Republican Voters. This survey took place February 11-16, Likely voters were determined based on whether they voted in 2012 or registered since and stated intention of voting in Data shown in this deck is among those who identify as Republicans or independents who lean Republican and vote in Republican primaries or caucuses. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.47 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Republican Party Project typology. The 5 categories of Republicans are mutually exclusive categories determined by respondents responses on ideology, religion, frequency of service attendance, strength of Tea Party support and favorability towards the Tea Party. To ensure that the web-survey accurately reflects the national Republican Party, the typologies were weighted to the average for each type from Democracy Corps last three national surveys. Factor analysis. A factor analysis was conducted using principal-components analysis on the thermometer and agree/disagree responses, while also trying the principal factors and maximum likelihood methods to check the results. The most prominent factors from each analysis were used to compute factors scores. The PCA results retained 9 factors with eigenvalues greater than 1. Cumulatively, the 9 retained factors explain 64.1% of the variance in the feeling thermometers and attitudinal questions. Regression analysis. A series of fractional logistic regressions were conducted to obtain the marginal effects of explanatory variables (candidate doubts/democratic & Republican messages) on outcome variables (presidential revote, stated likelihood of voting for candidate, and electability), representing the change in outcome probabilities estimated for a hypothetical shift in explanatory variables, all else held equal. No causation is implied by these results. 1

3 Key findings When you see these results, you will believe that either Donald Trump has an amazing antenna for the mood of the party, or a great pollster. You will also believe this explosive civil war inside the GOP can move significant numbers of voters out of the Republican camp and this poll is a start to show how. Trump is poised to win because his intense opposition to Obama Democrats and anti-immigration views gives him a Tea Party and working class base, and because he competes among Evangelicals and moderates. Cruz has faltered because Observant Catholics don t like him; Rubio is faltering because his hard pro-life stance blocks gains with Moderates, as it did for Jeb Bush. What unites and animates today s Republican Party are two things: the fight against Obama- Democratic governance and insistence that the party get serious about fighting growing immigration: They are fundamentally opposed to Clinton, Obama, Obamacare and the Democrats they believe are socialists that threaten the Constitution; They are opposed to illegal immigration and the growing foreign presence in a more racially diverse America. Thus, they deny facts and evidence about net-migration across the U.S.-Mexico border and demand their presidential candidate fight to get immigration under control; They also favor a strong military and oppose regulation, but those preferences are not what is motivating today s Republicans. 2

4 Key findings, cont. The GOP s problems begin the Moderates who form 31 percent of the base. They are heavily college-educated and accept the sexual revolution. They believe most abortions should be legal and they dislike the pro-life groups. They want the Republican nominee to stop fighting gay marriage. Their distinct attitudes are the reason why the GOP establishment has not been able to consolidate their votes behind any candidate. Their attitudes create a vast opening for Democrats in the General Election. The GOP is further endangered by a huge crack that runs right down the middle of the GOP separating the Tea Party and Evangelical voters (47 percent) from the Moderates and Observant Catholics (45 percent). These are the issues that fracture the party: The Moderate/Observant Catholic bloc believes government should help with health care and the free market needs regulation. Not the Tea Party/Evangelical bloc. The Moderate led bloc believes the facts and scientific consensus about climate change. Not the Tea Party led bloc. The Moderate led bloc is anti-nra, not the Tea Party led bloc 3

5 Key findings, cont. The Trump race in particular already pushes 20 of Republicans to say they are uncertain what they will do in the general election against Hillary Clinton, including one quarter of the Catholics and one third of the moderates. The party is poised to shed voters. After attacks and messages, the Trump vote drops 14 points among the Catholics and among the moderates, the Trump margin against Clinton drops 9 points. The strongest attacks on Trump are that he is an ego-maniac that is for himself, not the country; he is disrespectful of women; he can t be trusted with nuclear weapons; and he denies America a clean energy future. The strongest Democratic messages that shift the Observant Catholics and Moderates away from Trump make the case for long-term investment in modernizing America; for reforming corporate governance so CEOs and corporations focus on investing in their companies and employees, not stock prices; and for an end to fighting to turn back the clock on social issues so we can address the country s problems. This GOP civil war has consequences and this poll gives people the tools they need to plan their strategy and campaigns. 4

6 THE GOP BASE 5

7 The Republican base Establishment 8% Tea Party 17% Moderate 31% Evangelical 30% Observant Catholic 14% 6

8 About the RPP Segments 47% 45% Tea Party 17% Evangelical 30% Observant Catholic 14% Moderate 31% Tea Party: Evangelicals: Observant Catholic: Moderate: 63% Strong Republican 73% Strong Republican 73% Strong Republican 33% Strong Republican 66% working class 63% working class 63% working class 66% college educated 75% married 74% married 58% unmarried 64% married 62% male 51% male 55% male 52% female 36% live in Conservative Heartland 46% live in Expanded East Coast 7

9 GOP PRIMARY 8

10 Trump dominates primary vote choice Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? 32 Primary Vote Choice Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 3 9

11 No evidence any candidate considered more electable than Trump Regardless of who you are supporting for president, which of the Republican candidates for president has the best chance of defeating the Democratic candidate in November? Best Chance in November Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 10

12 Trump's base is in the Tea Party bloc Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? 50 Primary Vote Choice Tea Party Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 11

13 Trump and Cruz are splitting the Evangelical vote Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Evangelicals Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 12

14 Catholic vote split between Kasich, Trump and Rubio Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Observant Catholic Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 13

15 Moderates vote fragmented, with Trump more than competitive Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Moderates Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 14

16 Trump s support starts with working class base Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Working Class v. College Educated Non College College Non College College Non College College Non College College Non College College Non College College Non College College Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not Sure 15

17 Men s preference for Trump drives up his margins Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Men v. Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not Sure 16

18 WHAT DO REPUBLICANS BELIEVE? 17

19 What unites the GOP? Democrats a threat to the nation Disdain for its leaders, starting with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama The Democratic Party's policies are so misguided that they threaten the nation's well-being. The Constitution is under daily attack by the Obama Administration. Democrats are socialists Today, there is no real difference between the Democratic Party and socialism. Disdain for Obamacare. Bothered by non-english speaking immigrants & foreign born It bothers me when I come in contact with immigrants who speak little or no English. Want a nominee who will fight the 12 million undocumented immigrants live in the U.S. and the foreign-born make up a growing proportion of our major cities. They believe reports that net migration from Mexico has been zero or less since 2005 and the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants in the U.S. has declined to 1.3 million since 2007 are just liberal media bias. 18

20 The factors that underlie GOP attitudes: anti-democratic twice as powerful as pro-republican factor % of responses explained by each factor Dem. Leaders, Party, Policies GOP Leaders & Party Trump, antiimmgration, populism, environmentalism Conservative attitude on social issues Attitudes towards women, minorities, and politicians associated with them Role of government Attitudes towards minorities, immigrants, women, Kasich & Bush Free market economic attitudes Populism & community 19

21 Dominant underlying dimension is anti-obama, Clinton, Democrats, Obamacare, and Constitutional threat FACTOR 1: Democratic leaders & Democrats generally Explains 24% of Responses Barack Obama Democratic Party Constitution under daily attack by Obama Admin. Hillary Clinton Affordable Care Act/Obamacare Democratic policies so misguided they threaten the country Nancy Pelosi Bernie Sanders 20

22 Universal, intense anti-democratic feelings, starting with Hillary Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 7.1 Mean: 8.2 Mean: 15.3 Mean: 13.5 Mean: 16.6 Mean: 19.6 Net: -94 Net: -89 Net: -89 Net: -84 Net: -79 Net: Hillary Clinton Nancy Pelosi Dem Party Barack Obama Bill Clinton Bernie Sanders 21

23 Socialist Democrats threaten nation's well-being: all factions believe Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. Today, there is no real difference between the Democratic Party and socialism. The Democratic Party's policies are so misguided that they threaten the nation's well-being. Disagree Agree Disagree Agree NET NET All Republicans All Republicans Tea Party Tea Party Evangelical Evangelical Observant Catholic Observant Catholic Moderate Moderate

24 Trump and immigration: most important non-party factor FACTOR 3: Trump, opposition to non-english speaking immigrants, support for taxing the rich and environmentalism Explains 6% of Responses Donald Trump It bothers me when immigrants don't speak English Rich should pay more taxes Measures to address global warming Measures to protect environment 23

25 Bothered by non-english speaking immigrants Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. It bothers me when I come in contact with immigrants who speak little or no English Disagree Agree NET All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

26 Want party to fight illegal immigration Please indicate if you want a Republican nominee who will fight to stop it or one who will accept it and move on to other issues. 12 million undocumented immigrants live in the U.S. and the foreign-born make up a growing proportion of our major cities. Accept it Fight it NET All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

27 Reject evidence & facts on immigration more than any other subject Below are some things reported in the paper and on the news. For each, please tell me if you think that it might be true OR it might be the liberal media trying to justify their agenda. True The liberal media Net migration from Mexico has been zero or less since 2005, the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants in the U.S. has declined to 1.3 million since NET +54 Scientists say that 2015 was the hottest year in historical record by a wide margin, and 98 percent of climate scientists agree that human activity is a significant factor in climate change States that have passed laws closing loopholes at gun shows some people use to get around background checks have seen 40 percent fewer cases of fatal domestic violence incidence and 40 percent fewer police killed on duty Women on average make 77 cents for every dollar a man makes

28 GOP CIVIL WAR: BEGINS WITH MODERATES 27

29 28 Two-thirds of Moderates believe that abortion should be legal in most cases Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases? Legal in all cases Illegal in all cases Legal in most cases Illegal in most cases Legal Illegal Legal Illegal Legal Illegal Legal Illegal Observant Tea Party Evangelical Moderate Catholic

30 Moderates accept sexual revolution and pre-marital sex Many Republicans think the country is off on the wrong track. Below are some changes taking place in America. For each, please indicate if you want a Republican nominee who will fight to stop it or one who will accept it and move on to other issues. Women and men feel free to have sex without any interest in getting married, forming a family or a long-term relationship. Accept it Fight it NET All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

31 Moderates hostile to pro-life groups and for Planned Parenthood Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. % Favorable % Unfavorable Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate Pro-life groups Planned Parenthood 30

32 Moderates isolated in GOP by their lack of negativity towards gay marriage Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. % Unfavorable Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate Gay Marriage 31

33 Moderates want to accept homosexuality, not discourage it Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. Homosexuality should be discouraged by society. Disagree Agree NET All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

34 Moderates want party to accept gay marriage, not fight it Many Republicans think the country is off on the wrong track. Below are some changes taking place in America. For each, please indicate if you want a Republican nominee who will fight to stop it or one who will accept it and move on to other issues. Gay marriage is now legal in the U.S. Accept it Fight it NET All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

35 Moderate stand apart on climate change and environmental protection Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. Because the earth is getting warmer because of what humans are doing, we need to begin taking serious measures to address global warming. Disagree Agree NET There needs to be stricter laws and regulations to protect the environment. Disagree Agree NET All Republicans All Republicans Tea Party Tea Party Evangelical Evangelical Observant Catholic Observant Catholic Moderate Moderate

36 Moderates don't rally to Scalia Supreme Court replacement Below is a statement by a Republican candidate about the country. Please indicate how much more likely you would be to support the Republican candidate who says it. SCALIA: Everything we believe in is at stake in this election. Justice Scalia's death means that voters in November will decide whether Democrats or Republicans will control the White House, the Supreme Court and the U.S. Senate. Liberals really could be fully in control and unions could get more power, business could face suffocating regulation, we could lose the right to bear arms, abortions could be available without restrictions and the president s illegal executive action on amnesty could go forward. We must unify as a Party to win in November. Much more likely All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

37 THE GOP CIVIL WAR 36

38 Free market and low taxes win support from Tea Party and Evangelicals, but not Moderates & Catholics Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. A free market economy needs government regulation in order to best serve the public interest. People making over $250,000 a year should pay a lot more in taxes. Disagree Agree NET Disagree Agree NET All Republicans All Republicans Tea Party Tea Party Evangelical Evangelical Observant Catholic Observant Catholic Moderate Moderate

39 Tea Party & Evangelicals reject climate change consensus, not so with Catholics & Moderates For each, please tell me if you think that it might be true OR it might be the liberal media trying to justify their agenda. Scientists say that 2015 was the hottest year in historical record by a wide margin, and 98 percent of climate scientists agree that human activity is a significant factor in climate change. True The liberal media NET All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

40 Moderates & Catholics not fans of N.R.A Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. % Favorable Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate N.R.A 39

41 THE GOP CIVIL WAR S OPPORTUNITIES 40

42 Trump pushes 20 percent to uncertain vote Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican (Donald Trump/Ted Cruz/Marco Rubio)? TOTAL Other Not Sure Won t Vote Trump Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote Cruz Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote Rubio Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 41

43 Observant Catholics: Trump pushes uncertain to 24 percent, Cruz pushes 21percent to Clinton Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican (Donald Trump/Ted Cruz/Marco Rubio)? Observant Catholic Other Not Sure Won t Vote Trump Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 4 21 Cruz Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote Rubio Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 42

44 Moderates: Trump pushes 30 percent to uncertain vote Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican (Donald Trump/Ted Cruz/Marco Rubio)? Moderates Other Not Sure Won t Vote Trump Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote Cruz Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote Rubio Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 43

45 Strongest attacks on Trump are ego, views of women, and security Below is a list of reasons why some Republicans say they couldn't vote for Donald Trump in an election against Hillary Clinton. For each one, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Donald Trump? ATTACKS ON DONALD TRUMP Very serious doubts EGOMANIAC: He is an ego-maniac and entertainer that cares more about gaining power and fame than helping the country NATIONAL SECURITY: He is not qualified to deal with national security issues and shouldn't be trusted with our nuclear weapons WOMEN: He is very disrespectful of women ANTI-IMMIGRANT: He would expel millions of undocumented immigrants and is intolerant of immigrants, Hispanics, Muslims, and people who look different BIG OIL-CLEAN ENERGY: He backs a big oil and coal agenda and denies climate change when clean energy is America's future

46 Abortion position most worrisome about Rubio Below is a list of reasons why some Republicans say they couldn't vote for Marco Rubio in an election against Hillary Clinton. For each one, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Marco Rubio? ATTACKS ON MARCO RUBIO Very serious doubts ABORTION: He thinks abortion should be illegal in all cases, even in cases of rape and incest GAY MARRIAGE: He thinks gay marriage is a sin and would appoint Supreme Court justices that would end marriage equality WEAK: He is too weak to stand up to our adversaries, like Vladimir Putin INEXPERIENCED: He is a junior U.S. Senator with no executive experience and could be another Obama BIG OIL-CLEAN ENERGY: He backs a big oil and coal agenda and denies climate change, even though Florida is already paying the price of extreme weather and even though it denies Florida the benefit of clean energy

47 Attacks lead 25 percent to pull away from Trump but 30 percent pull off from Cruz and Rubio After reading these doubts about [Republican Candidate], how much less likely are you to vote for [Republican Candidate] in a race against Hillary Clinton? Much less likely Somewhat less likely A little less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Trump Cruz Rubio

48 For moderates, top attacks are abortion, gay marriage & women Below Moderates is a list of reasons why some Republicans say they couldn't vote for [Republican candidate] in an election against Hillary Clinton. For each one, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about [Republican candidate]? MODERATES TRUMP ATTACKS EGOMANIAC: He is an ego-maniac and entertainer that cares more about gaining power and fame than helping the country. WOMEN: He is very disrespectful of women. IMMIGRANTS: He would expel millions of undocumented immigrants and is intolerant of immigrants, Hispanics, Muslims, and people who look different. CRUZ ATTACKS PRO-LIFE: He thinks abortion should be illegal in all cases, even in cases of rape and incest, and is fighting to defund Planned Parenthood. ANTI-GAY MARRIAGE: He thinks gay marriage is a sin and would appoint Supreme Court justices that would end marriage equality. GRIDLOCK WORSE: He is so ideological and uncompromising that he led to the shutdown of the federal government and will make gridlock worse. RUBIO ATTACKS Very serious doubts ABORTION: He thinks abortion should be illegal in all cases, even in cases of rape and incest. GAY MARRIAGE: He thinks gay marriage is a sin and would appoint Supreme Court justices that would end marriage equality. DEPENDENCY: He is the only GOP presidential candidate who wants to spend $1 trillion on new tax credits for the poor that will create just more dependency

49 America first economic policies and big oil produced opposition to clean energy future shift vote away IMPACT OF TRUMP ATTACKS ON PRESIDENTIAL REVOTE 82: Big Oil-Clean Energy 48

50 Catholics most receptive to criticisms about Rubio After reading these doubts about Marco Rubio, how much less likely are you to vote for Marco Rubio in a race against Hillary Clinton? IMPACT OF ATTACKS ON VOTE FOR MARCO RUBIO Much less likely Somewhat less likely A little less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Observant Tea Party Evangelical Moderate Catholic

51 Infrastructure, corporate governance, beyond social issues top visions Below are some statements by a Democratic candidate about the country. For each statement, please indicate how much more likely you would be to support the Democratic candidate who says it. INVESTMENT: We have been too focused on short-term fixes when our country should be making long-term investments so America can lead in the 21st century. We should make sure we get our money's worth for all government spending, and we know national public investments pay off. Lincoln built the transcontinental railroad; Eisenhower built the interstate highway system. Today, America must modernize our infrastructure, expand our energy and Internet grid and ensure we lead in all scientific research. CORPORATIONS: CEOs and senior corporate management have let down their own companies, employees, and America. They jacked up their compensation while outsourcing jobs and avoided paying taxes by moving their corporate headquarters overseas. And they stopped investing in research, innovation and their own work force. We should change the rules around CEO pay so they profit from long-term investment in innovation and skill training, not from inflating stock prices Much more likely 48 CAMPAIGN MONEY: Billionaires and corporate donors are spending millions of dollars on secret campaign contributions to buy politicians and make sure government works for them, not you. It is time to reduce the toxic influence of money in politics and fight for a new way of funding campaigns that amplifies the voices of everyday Americans so democracy works for all of us BEYOND SOCIAL ISSUES: So many leaders are determined to turn back the clock on social issues that are settled for the rest of the country. Leave Planned Parenthood alone, allow women to get contraceptive coverage, and accept that same sex marriages are now legal. Let's start addressing our country's problems WORKING WOMEN: Women today are working as much as men, and our policies need to catch up to the modern family where many women are on their own. Its time women get equal pay with men, help with childcare, and paid sick days and family leave CLIMATE: So many leaders are stuck in the past, denying climate change and supporting the agenda of the big oil and coal companies. That's hurting the country. American technology and innovation has driven down the price of solar power by 80 percent and now creates 8 times more new jobs a year than old energy. America's economic future lies with building a new, clean energy economy

52 Moving beyond social issues and infrastructure investment have greatest impact on voting for Clinton over Trump IMPACT OF MESSAGES ON PRESIDENTIAL REVOTE 113: (DEM) Beyond Social Issues 51

53 Attacks, Democratic messages dislodge GOP base voters Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Trump Trump v. Clinton Clinton Other Not sure Won t Vote Observant Tea Party Evangelical Moderate Catholic 52

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