Unique web panel shows how RAE really delivered December, 2018

Transcription

1 Unique web panel shows how RAE really delivered 2018 December, 2018

2 Innovative new research program BATTLEGROUND PHONE POLL 4 phone polls in 2018: April 5-12 June September 4-10 November 4-7 1,000 registered voters wave registered voters wave 4 Voter file matched 65% reached on cell phones Taking political & cultural measures nationally & among the RAE+ To compare & weight RAE+ panel to offset bias of online sample ON-GOING RAE+ BATTLEGROUND PANEL 4 web-surveys in 2018: April 4-16 among 3,137 June among 1,813 Aug. 28 Sept. 10 among 1,085 November 1-14 among 791 Among unmarried women, millennials, minorities (RAE) + white working class women (RAE+) 732 are 2018 Voters Voter file matched With touch-ins between waves Tracking changing attitudes Vote preference & engagement Unless otherwise stated, the results shown are among the RAE (unmarried women, minorities and millennials) plus white working class women. 1

3 HOW THE RAE VOTED 2

4 Democrats outperformed 2016 vote among all types of women Now let me ask you about the election for Congress. Did you vote for (ROTATE) the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? 2016 V NATIONAL CONGRESSIONAL VOTE Clinton 2016/Democrat 2018 Trump 2016/Republican % of 2018 voters Nation 18 Nation 16 Nation 18 Nation 16 Nation 18 Nation 16 Nation 18 Nation 16 Nation 18 Nation 16 Nation 18 Nation White College Women White Working Class Women White Unmarried Women Hispanic Women Unmarried Women African American Women 15% 25% 16% 6% 23% 8% Compared to the 2016 presidential vote in national exit polls. White working class = non college educated. 3

5 All RAE delivered huge House margins, except white millennials Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district, did you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT IN STATE BATTLEGROUND Democrat for Congress Republican for Congress African American Millennial Women Unmarried Women White Unmarried Women Hispanic Millennial White Millennial White Working Class Women 4

6 RAE delivered late surge in margin in Rust Belt states Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district, did you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT IN STATE BATTLEGROUND RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE Democrat for Congress Republican for Congress April June Sept Election April June Sept Election Diverse States Rust Belt + States 5

7 All unmarried women in big early, delivered House majority Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district, did you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT IN STATE BATTLEGROUND Democrat for Congress Republican for Congress April June Sept Election April June Sept Election Unmarried Women White Unmarried Women 6

8 Unmarried women delivered big and with growing margin in Rust Belt Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district, did you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT IN STATE BATTLEGROUND UNMARRIED WOMEN Democrat for Congress Republican for Congress April June Sept Election April June Sept Election Diverse States Rust Belt + States 7

9 Millennials helped deliver late surge in vote support for House Democrats Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district, did you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT IN STATE BATTLEGROUND Democrat for Congress Republican for Congress April June Sept Election April June Sept Election Millennials White Millennials 8

10 AA delivered big %, but Hispanics late after Trump s anti-immigration push Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district, did you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT IN STATE BATTLEGROUND Democrat for Congress Republican for Congress April June Sept Election April June Sept Election African American Hispanic 9

11 White working women weakened in Diverse, but got closer in Rust Belt Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district, did you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT IN STATE BATTLEGROUND WHITE WORKING CLASS WOMEN Democrat for Congress Republican for Congress April June Sept Election April June Sept Election Diverse States Rust Belt + States 10

12 RAE all delivered in the U.S. Senate elections Thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in your state, did you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? in SENATE BALLOT IN STATE BATTLEGROUND Democrat for Senate Republican for Senate African American Unmarried Women Millennial Women White Unmarried Women Millennial Hispanic White Millennial White Working Class Women 11

13 RAE delivered late surge for Senate Democrats in Rust Belt Thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in your state, did you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? SENATE BALLOT IN STATE BATTLEGROUND RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE Democrat for Senate Republican for Senate April June Sept Election April June Sept Election Diverse States Rust Belt + States 12

14 Unmarried women delivered 2 to 1 for Senate & Governor Thinking about the election for U.S. Senate/Governor in your state, did you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? STATEWIDE RACES IN STATE BATTLEGROUND Democratic Senate candidate UNMARRIED WOMEN Republican Senate candidate April June Sept Election April June Sept Election Senate Governor 13

15 In governor races, RAE slipped in Diverse and surged in Rust Belt Thinking about the election for Governor in your state, did you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? GOVERNOR BALLOT IN STATE BATTLEGROUND RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE Democrat for Governor Republican for Governor April June Sept Election April June Sept Election Diverse States Rust Belt + States 14

16 THE CAMPAIGN 15

17 16 RAE in Diverse states broke in Fall and RAE in Rust Belt broke at the end When did you finally decide how you would vote: in the last few days before the election, the week before the election, a month before the election, during the Kavanaugh hearings, sometime in September, during the summer or before that? DECISION TIME BY GROUP RAE Diverse RAE Rust Belt+ % of 2018 RAE voters in battleground Before the summer During the summer During In Kavanaugh September hearings Month Before Week before Last few days Election Day Before Fall Fall Last Week 35% 38% 27%

18 Broke for Democrats early and at the close! Thinking about the election for U.S. Senate/Governor in [STATE] / Congress, did you vote for -- (ROTATE DEM, REP CANDIDATE) -- [DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE] or [DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE]? STATE BATTLEGROUND BALLOTS BY DECISION TIME RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE + WHITE WORKING CLASS WOMEN Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate % of % 2018 of 2018 RAE+ voters voters in battleground Congress Senate Governor Congress Senate Governor Congress Senate Governor Before Fall Fall Last Week 34% 40% 26% 17

19 Early and last week deciders give Democrats landslide numbers in all races Thinking about the election for U.S. Senate/Governor in [STATE] / Congress, did you vote for -- (ROTATE DEM, REP CANDIDATE) -- [DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE] or [DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE]? STATE BATTLEGROUND BALLOTS BY DECISION TIME UNMARRIED WOMEN Democratic Candidate 58 Republican Candidate % of unmarried women 18 voters in battleground Congress Senate Governor Congress Senate Governor Congress Senate Governor Before Fall Fall Last Week 39% 36% 25% 18

20 Late surge in white unmarried and millennial women determined to vote Compared to previous midterm elections, do you think it is/was more important for you to vote, less important for you to vote, or about the same? SHIFT IN RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF VOTING IN THIS MIDTERM Election somewhat more important Sept somewhat more important 2018 VOTERS Election much more important Sept much more important Rising American Electorate White Millennial Women White Working Class Women White Unmarried Women Unmarried Women African American White Millennial Hispanic 19

21 Mail and phone dominate communication with RAE in 2018 These are some ways that candidates, campaigns, and other organizations try to reach people before elections. Please select all of the ways that you were contacted or received information before the election. RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE GOTV CONTACT METHODS UNMARRIED WOMEN Print materials in mail 63 Print materials in mail 74 Saw campaign ads on TV 53 Saw campaign ads on TV 65 Received phone calls 38 Received phone calls 44 Received s 32 Received s 38 Saw campaign ad online 31 Received texts 33 Campaign commercial online 26 Saw campaign ad online 31 Received texts 25 Contacted by campaing to vote 21 Contacted by campaing to vote 16 Campaign commercial online 17 Followed on social media 15 Voter participation organization 17 Visited campaignwebsite 12 Spoke with someone at door 16 Spoke with someone at door 11 Followed on social media 11 Voter participation organization 11 Not contacted 11 Contacted by friend volunteer 4 Visited campaignwebsite 7 Not contacted 12 Contacted by friend volunteer 6 20

22 Voted against Republicans to protect Medicare and pre-existing conditions This is a list of reasons to support the Democratic candidate for Congress and to oppose the Republican candidate. Which FOUR describe the most important reasons why you voted/will vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in your district? Voted Dem To be a check on Donald Trump Protect Medicare & Social Security End Rep's control of all govt Protect pre-existing conditions Lower cost of healthcare & Rx drugs Protect woman's right to choose Protect against gun violence Protect DREAMers Tax cut helped corporations & rich Less division & polarization So govt helps with climate change Because they are a Democrat To protect the Russia investigation REASONS TO VOTE FOR CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE Protect Medicare & Social Security Protect pre-existing conditions Lower cost of healthcare & Rx drugs End Rep's control of all govt To be a check on Donald Trump Protect woman's right to choose Protect against gun violence Tax cut helped corporations & rich Protect DREAMers So govt helps with climate change To protect Russia investigation Less division & polarization Because they are a Democrat Voted/ Considered Dem WHITE WORKING CLASS WOMEN 69 21

23 Trump won his vote on supporting Trump, stopping Democrats & immigration This is a list of reasons to support the Republican candidate for Congress and to oppose the Democratic candidate. Which FOUR describe the most important reasons why you voted/will vote for the Republican candidate for Congress in your district? Support Trump's agenda To stop Dems Against sactuary cities Reps keep control Support America first Against liberal media Keep tax reform law Stop Pelosi Protect Trump impeach Protect 2nd amendment Repeal and Replace ACA Stop abortion Help Trump on trade REASONS TO VOTE FOR CONGRESSIONAL GOP RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE To stop Dems Against sactuary cities Support Trump's agenda Support America first Reps keep control Repeal and Replace ACA Stop Pelosi Keep tax reform law Against liberal media Stop abortion Protect 2nd amendment Protect Trump impeach Help Trump on trade Voted GOP WHITE WORKING CLASS WOMEN

24 In Senate, protect Social Security & Medicare & pre-existing conditions, check Trump This is a list reasons to support (DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE) for Senate and to oppose (REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE). Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for (DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE)? Voted/ Considered REASONS FOR SENATE DEMOCRAT IN STATE BATTLEGROUND Dem RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE Will be a check on Trump 51 WHITE WORKING CLASS WOMEN Protect Social Security and Medicare 65 Protect Social Security and Medicare 49 Supports pre-existing conditions 50 Supports pre-existing conditions 48 Will be a check on Trump 38 Oppose Rep tax cuts for rich & corporations 35 Independent thinker that can cross party lines 36 Independent thinker that can cross party lines 30 Oppose Rep tax cuts for rich & corporations 32 Is a Democrat 27 Stand up for human rights 31 Stand up for human rights 26 Supports laws against gun violence 23 Supports laws against gun violence 24 Is a Democrat 13 Brett Kavanaugh nomination 9 Brett Kavanaugh nomination 11 23

25 Governor: Democrats for health care and GOP for immigration This is a list of reasons why some people vote for one candidate over another. Please select the THREE reasons that are the most important to you when deciding who to vote for in the election for GOVERNOR in (STATE). REASONS FOR GOVERNOR VOTE IN STATE BATTLEGROUND RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE Voted Democrat for Governor Voted GOP for Governor Medicaid/Health care The economy/jobs Education Taxes Because of Trump Guns Protecting democracy Immigration Abortion/gay marriage Their political party Climate/environment Work across party Immigration The economy/jobs Taxes Guns Medicaid/Health care Protecting democracy Because of Trump Abortion/gay marriage Their political party Work across party Education Climate/environment

26 White working class women vote Dems for health care; GOP, immigration This is a list of reasons why some people vote for one candidate over another. Please select the THREE reasons that are the most important to you when deciding who to vote for in the election for GOVERNOR in (STATE). REASONS FOR GOVERNOR VOTE IN STATE BATTLEGROUND WHITE WORKING CLASS WOMEN Voted Democrat for Governor Voted GOP for Governor Medicaid/Health care 66 The economy/jobs 56 The economy/jobs 45 Immigration 48 Education Because of Trump Guns Taxes Climate/environment Work across party Their political party Protecting democracy Abortion/gay marriage Immigration Medicaid/Health care Taxes Guns Because of Trump Their political party Protecting democracy Work across party Education Abortion/gay marriage Climate/environment

27 Strong belief in immigration, with Rust Belt RAE immune to Trump s close Which one of the following statements comes closer to your point of view, even if neither is exactly right? Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents. Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing & healthcare. RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE 2018 VOTERS Burden somewhat more Burden much more Strengthen somewhat more Strengthen much more April June September Election April June September Election DIVERSE STATES RUST BELT STATES 26

28 White working class women cooler on immigration in diverse states at end Which one of the following statements comes closer to your point of view, even if neither is exactly right? Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents. Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing & healthcare. WHITE WORKING CLASS WOMEN 2018 VOTERS Burden somewhat more Burden much more Strengthen somewhat more Strengthen much more April June September Election April June September Election DIVERSE STATES RUST BELT STATES 27

29 Democrats make gains at end on corruption, health care and taxes For each, of the issues below, please indicate whether, overall, you think the Democrats or Donald Trump and the Republicans would do a better a job. RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE Dems Much Better Dems Somewhat Better Trump Much Better Trump Somewhat Better Cleaning up corruption Election September The cost of health care Election September Immigration Election September Taxes Election September The economy Election September Working for change Election September

30 Language for priorities for Democratic house As you may know, the Democrats won control of the House of Representatives. These are some of the things they may prioritize going forward. Where does each issue belong on the list of priorities for the new Democratic House? PRIORITIES FOR DEMOCRATIC HOUSE Prevent cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security Lower prescription drug costs Begin investigations and potential impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump Address the growing inequality by reversing the new tax cut for the rich and corporations Expose government corruption and bar dark campaign money Legalize the status of DREAMers Reverse oil and coal decisions and start addressing climate change Invest in our transportation, education, and energy infrastructure Make sure new NAFTA creates American jobs Restore regulations on Wall Street Banks and corporations 29

31 Priorities for Congress start with no cuts to SS/Medicare & lower drug costs As you may know, the Democrats won control of the House of Representatives. These are some of the things they may prioritize going forward. Where does each issue belong on the list of priorities for the new Democratic House? PRIORITIES FOR DEMOCRATIC HOUSE RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE & WHITE WORKING CLASS WOMEN 1st priority Near top of list Middle of list Bottom of list Not priority Prevent Cuts to SS & Medicare Lower Prescription Drug Costs Investigate/ Impeach Trump Reverse Rep Tax Cut Expose Corruption& Bar Dark Money Legalize DREAMers Address Climate Change 26 Invest in Transport/ Educ/Energy Ensure New NAFTA Creates Jobs Restore Wall Street Regulations 30

32 DEMOCRACY CORPS 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW Floor 10 Washington, DC Phone: GREENBERG RESEARCH th Street NW Suite 900 Washington, DC Phone: WOMEN S VOICES WOMEN VOTE ACTION FUND 1707 L Street, N.W. Suite 300 Washington, DC Phone: