Hillary Clinton IA Caucus Survey

Transcription

1 Hillary Clinton IA Caucus Survey Poll Findings & Recommendations July 15

2 Methodology Anzalone Liszt Grove Research conducted n=8 live telephone interviews with likely 16 caucus-goers in Iowa between July -23, 15. Respondents were selected at random and reached on landline and cellphones. Expected margin of sampling error for the full sample is ±3.5% at the 95% confidence level and higher for subgroups. Key Audiences in Slides HRC Consolidation Targets (11%) Voting for Clinton but neither definitely voting for her nor viewing her very favorably HRC Expansion Targets (12%) NOT voting for Clinton but shifts to her post-messaging OR who say there is a fair chance they will AND either views her very favorably or views her somewhat favorably and is undecided All HRC Targets (24%) Combination of consolidation and expansion targets Core HRC (26%) Those definitely voting for Clinton HRC Consolidation* (Expanded) (27%) Those voting for Clinton but who say they could still change their mind HRC Expansion* (Expanded) (%) NOT voting for Clinton but shift to her postmessaging OR who say there is a fair chance they will *These groups are used for split questions where the more refined consolidation and expansion universes are too small to view 2

3 CANDIDATE SUPPORT MEASURES

4 Clinton's popularity continues to be very strong and consistent. Among the voters most open to moving to Sanders, 92% rate Clinton favorably, making it more difficult for Sanders to continue to grow his support. Clinton Popularity Very Favorable Total Favorable /5/15 2/25/15 3/1/15 6/28/15 7/23/15 4

5 Sanders has increased his favorable rating from 64% to 78% since the last poll, and his very favorable rating is up from 36% to 45%. These gains were most pronounced with year olds, non-college men, and undecideds. But with his name identification now at 85%, it's going to be hard for Sanders to maintain his pace of growth. Sanders Popularity Very Favorable Total Favorable /5/15 6/28/15 7/23/15 NAME ID 48% 72% 85% 5

6 Voters are becoming more familiar with O'Malley, but his name ID is still 35 points below Sanders, who is blocking his growth. O Malley Popularity Very Favorable Total Favorable /5/15 6/28/15 7/23/15 NAME ID % 42% 5% 6

7 Voters are clearly seeing more positive coverage of Sanders than Clinton. By a 51-point margin, they say they are hearing mostly positive news about Sanders, compared to just an 8-point net positive rating for Clinton. This trend holds among our consolidation targets. Has the news you've been hearing lately about Hillary Clinton/Bernie Sanders been mostly positive, mostly negative or a mix of both? Positive Negative Mixed 8 Overall Consolidation Targets Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders POSITIVE - NEGATIVE

8 While concerns about HRC are relatively diffused, the knock on Sanders is clear: he can't win. A majority (55%) say their top concern is that Sanders will lose the general election to a Republican. The top concern about Clinton is her authenticity. Biggest Worry about Clinton Biggest Worry about Sanders Overall HRC Consolidation HRC Expansion Overall HRC Consolidation HRC Expansion I'm never sure if she's saying what she really believes There will always be another scandal coming I do not agree with where she stands on the issues [vol] Nothing He will lose the general election to a Republican He will never be able to get things done that he promises I do not agree with where he stands on the issues [vol] Nothing

9 The economy, effectiveness and electability are Clinton s biggest strengths against Sanders. He does better on populism and honesty. Is someone you can count on to get things done, and Understands how to keep the economy moving and create jobs are major Clinton advantages that were also predictive of the vote. Will fight for people like you" (which Sanders leads by 7) was also predictive. I m going to read you some qualities people might use to describe a president. For each one, please tell me if it applies more to Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. Can win a general election against a Republican Is a strong leader Is someone you can count on to get things done Understands how to keep the economy moving and create jobs Will fight for people like you Is in touch with the lives of everyday Americans Will hold Wall Street accountable Most predictive of vote based on regressions Is honest Clinton Sanders All Net Difference HRC Consolidation HRC Expansion

10 VOTE DYNAMICS

11 Clinton s vote share is stable, while Sanders' is up from the last poll as his popularity has increased. The gains for Sanders have come mainly from the undecided, which has dropped from 13% to 8% after spiking temporarily in the last poll. Sanders made double-digit gains with ages (+15), liberal men (+1) and non-college men (+11) Clinton Sanders O'Malley Warren Biden Undecided /5/15 2/25/15 3/1/15 6/28/15 7/23/15 11

12 Clinton s hard support is almost as big as Sanders' total support. The share of voters definitely voting for Clinton (26%) is just 4 points below Sanders total vote share and more than double the share definitely voting for him. Clinton s core supporters are disproportionately older women and liberal women Would you say that you are definitely caucusing for Hillary Clinton/Bernie Sanders in the Democratic presidential caucus or could you still change your mind? 8 Definitely Voting for Might change mind/dk Clinton 12 Sanders 12

13 Not only is Clinton s support firmer than Sanders, the share of additional voters open to her is just as large as his. 18% of voters are not currently with her but say there is a fair chance they will support her, compared to 17% for him. Additionally, twice as many voters are off limits to Sanders (3% to 17% for Clinton). 56 Even though you are not supporting Hillary Clinton/Bernie Sanders now, what are the chances that you might support her/him in the Democratic presidential caucus -- is there a fair chance that you might support her/him, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all that you might support her/him? HRC Sanders CLINTON Current Support Fair Chance Small/Very slight chance/dk No chance/definitely voting for someone else SANDERS

14 There is still a large gender gap for Clinton, although it has declined slightly since last month. Her vote share is similar with new and core caucus-goers, but Sanders does 8 points better with new voters. Vote by Gender and Caucus History Clinton Sanders O'Malley Other candidates Undecided HRC June CLINTON SANDERS Men Women Core Caucus-goers New Caucus-goers

15 The gender gap also persists across boundaries of age and education. Group Clinton Sanders HRC Lead College-educated men College-educated women Non-college men Non-college women Men Women Men Women Men Women

16 The older the voters, the better Clinton does. She leads by 39 points with seniors but trails by 17 points with millennials. Vote by Age Clinton Sanders O'Malley Other candidates Undecided HRC June CLINTON SANDERS

17 Clinton s support is 13 points higher among those who identify as somewhat liberal, than those who identify as very liberal. The gender gap is clear here as well, with Clinton doing especially well with somewhat liberal women, nearly three-quarters of whom support her. Vote by Liberal and by Gender 8 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Other candidates Undecided Very Liberal Somewhat Liberal Very Liberal Men Very Liberal Women Smwt Liberal Men Smwt Liberal Women CLINTON SANDERS

18 Clinton s support also exceeds % among moderate/conservatives, who make up a disproportionate share of our target universe, especially for consolidation. There is not much of a gender gap here, as Clinton s support is much higher with moderate/conservative men than it was in our previous two polls. Vote by Moderate/Conservative and by Gender Clinton Sanders O'Malley Other candidates Undecided HRC June Moderate/Conservative Mod/Cons Men Mod/Cons Women CLINTON SANDERS

19 There is not much differentiation in Clinton s support regionally, with the exception of the East (Davenport/Dubuque), where her support is at 51%. That is 9 points below her standing last month so we will have to monitor to see if that is real or simply noise. She also saw a 1-point increase in the Southeast (Iowa City). Vote by Region Clinton Sanders O'Malley Other candidates Undecided HRC June West North Central East East Central Southeast South Central Polk CLINTON SANDERS

20 There is no difference in the race between Clinton and Sanders in the two main media markets, with Clinton holding a 58% vote share and 29-point lead in both. Her support in Cedar Rapids rose 7 points since June. Vote by Media Market Clinton Sanders O'Malley Other candidates Undecided HRC June Des Moines Cedar Rapids Davenport CLINTON SANDERS

21 There was little overall difference in the two narratives we tested, though both tested far better with voters overall than a comparable message from Sanders. CLINTON POSITIVES % much more likely to support All [ECONOMIC] Hillary Clinton says she'll be a President who renews America's basic bargain: when you work hard and do your part, you should be able to get ahead and stay ahead. She will provide incentives to companies to share their profits with their employees, so Americans can benefit from the record corporate earnings their hard work produced. She'll end tax loopholes for Wall Street hedge fund managers and provide tax credits for families instead. She will lower the cost of college and give everyone a chance to refinance their student loans at lower rates. She will help small businesses start and succeed. Hillary Clinton says the deck has been stacked for those at the top for too long. Americans worked hard to bring this country back and it s time they got the rewards. [FAMILY] Hillary Clinton says she'll be a President who puts children and families first. She will fight to ensure that women finally receive equal pay for equal work. She'll establish paid family leave, so you don t lose your paycheck if you have a baby or a sick relative. She will lower taxes on families with two incomes, so that families don't face a tax penalty when both parents are in the workforce, and cut taxes for those caring for sick and aging relatives. Hillary believes education is the key to success, so she'll work to provide pre-school for every child, reduce the cost of college and let people refinance their student loans at lower rates, just like you do with mortgages. Hillary Clinton says families will be at the top of her agenda because when our families are strong, America is strong. HRC Cons. (Exp) HRC Expansion (Exp) 47% 55% 27% 48% 57% 33% Bernie Sanders, the U.S. Senator from Vermont, says he's running for President because America should belong to all of its people, not a handful of billionaires. As President, Sanders will close the income gap and change the rigged system that has created such inequality. He says it is time to break up the big banks. He will end tax breaks for companies that ship job overseas. He has a plan to invest a trillion dollars in infrastructure which could support 13 million jobs. He opposes the secretive TPP Free Trade deal, will stop the Keystone Pipeline, will fight to make tuition free for public colleges and expand Social Security. 33% 21% 39% 21

22 We didn't get much movement in the vote from the narratives, with neither moving the vote more than 2 points. This was true among subgroups as well. 8 HRC Initial Support HRC Post Msg Support HRC Economic Narrative HRC Family Narrative 22

23 The effectiveness of the middle-class economics elements of both narratives is evident in the open end results following the narratives. Takeaways related to the middle-class and standing up for people were cited at high levels after both narratives. What was most appealing about what you heard about Hillary Clinton? Middle-class economics / Stands up for the people Strong leader Experience 9 17 Family advocacy 2 22 College affordability 7 1 Improve education 3 13 Women's rights 3 11 Holding Wall Street accountable 6 Economic Split First woman president Most electable Family Split

24 Following his positive narrative, Sanders increased his vote share by 4 points (and decreased Clinton s by 3). His gains were similar across demographic groups, with his biggest gains coming from undecideds (+14) and voters in the North / Waterloo region (+8). 8 Clinton Sanders Other candidates Undecided HRC Vote Share CLINTON - SANDERS Current Post Clinton Narrative Post Sanders Positive

25 While we saw slightly more movement in the vote with the battery of positive issue testing for Clinton than the narratives, the gains here were also fairly small. This limited movement is consistent with past polls, whether we were isolating positive or negative information on Clinton or Sanders. 8 Clinton Sanders Other candidates Undecided HRC Vote Share CLINTON - SANDERS Current Post Clinton Narrative Post Sanders Narrative Post Clinton Messages

26 The positive messages from Clinton had little impact on her attributes relative to Sanders. He maintained solid advantages both on being in touch and fighting for people like you. 8 Is in touch with everyday Americans Clinton Sanders Understands how to keep the economy moving and create jobs Will fight for people like you Initial Final Initial Final Initial Final CLINTON - SANDERS

27 TARGETS AND MESSAGING

28 Our top testing messages reinforce our economic fairness theme. Tax fairness is a big deal. Of the 24 messages tested, the tax fairness/gop contrast frame came out on top, both overall and with key targets, and a similar message with no contrast did almost as well. Protecting Social Security & Medicare, healthcare and equal pay (the top testing in our policy poll) were other economic fairness messages that tested in the top tier. ECONONIC FAIRNESS MESSAGES % 7 much more likely to vote for Clinton All [TAX CUT W/ GOP] Republicans want to keep giving the wealthy and big corporations a tax cut but Clinton supports giving hard-working families a tax cut and making those at the top have to pay their fair share. [SS & MEDICARE W/ GOP] While Republicans want to privatize Social Security and end Medicare as we know it by turning it into a voucher system, Hillary Clinton will fight to preserve the benefits our seniors have paid for and deserve, and she will strengthen these programs to ensure they will be there for generations to come. [HEALTHCARE] Clinton will protect the Affordable Care Act and build on it to lower out-of-pocket health care costs, including insurance premiums, and make prescription drugs more affordable. [TAX CUT] Clinton supports giving hard-working families a tax cut and making those at the top have to pay their fair share. [EQUAL PAY] Clinton will fight to ensure that women receive equal pay. This will strengthen America's families by helping women and their families get ahead. HRC Consolidation (Expanded) HRC Expansion (Expanded) All HRC Targets HRC Core

29 The importance of tax fairness was also evident when caucus-goers were asked what bothers them most about the Republican candidates. GOP support for more tax cuts for the wealthy and big corporations clearly emerged as the biggest concern, both among voters overall and our consolidation targets. Tax fairness should be central to our economic fairness case. Which of the following bothers you most about the Republican candidates for President? 1st Choice 2nd Choice They support more tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations They deny climate change is real and oppose any actions to address it They support cuts to Medicare and Social Security They support a plan that cuts education funding by billions They oppose comprehensive immigration reform and refuse to fix our broken immigration system They oppose legislation to ensure women receive equal pay for equal work They oppose legalizing gay marriage

30 The resonance of tax fairness was also seen in our February policy poll, which found that by a nearly two-to-one margin, caucus goers said the bigger obstacle to people getting ahead is that Wall Street and corporations pay lower taxes than the middle class, rather than people working harder but not getting ahead. This was a sharp difference from voters nationwide. February Policy Poll 1 8 Which of the following do you think is the bigger obstacle to Americans getting ahead? 63 Wall Street and big corporations get all the breaks and pay lower tax rates than the middle class People are working harder than ever but can't get ahead because costs are rising and people aren't getting the raises they deserve Iowa Nationwide WALL STREET RISING COSTS

31 A message on Citizens United equaled the tax fairness message (with GOP contrast) in strength with both voters overall and our consolidation targets (though it did not refer to it by name). We see this as a fairness issue as well, as it goes after the unlimited money from corporations and the super rich that stacks our political system against everyday Americans. MONEY IN POLITICS: ANOTHER TOP TESTING FAIRNESS POLICY % 7 much more likely to vote for Clinton All [$ IN POLITICS] Clinton would support a constitutional amendment to get secret donations and unlimited corporate money out of political campaigns and make sure any Supreme Court judge she nominates supports it too, because she believes billionaires and corporations shouldn't be able to buy our elections. HRC Consolidation (Expanded) HRC Expansion (Expanded) All HRC Targets HRC Core

32 Beyond the economic fairness messages that constituted the top tier, the second tier of messages dealt more with social policies, such as Planned Parenthood, common-sense gun reforms, and climate change. The holding Wall Street accountable frame also made in it into the second tier, which we saw in previous polls is more resonant in Iowa than nationally. SECOND TIER MESSAGES % 7 much more likely to vote for Clinton All [PLANNED PARENTHOOD / GOP] Clinton will protect funding for Planned Parenthood, and will fight Republicans who are trying to take away women's right to basic healthcare like affordable birth control. [PLANNED PARENTHOOD] Clinton will protect funding for Planned Parenthood, and will protect women's access to basic healthcare like cancer screenings and birth control. [CLIMATE CHANGE] Clinton believes climate change is a threat to our health, our national security and the world we will leave behind for the next generation, and she will fight to address it by investing in clean energy such as solar and wind and cracking down on polluters to reduce carbon emissions. [COMMON-SENSE GUN REFORMS] Clinton will fight for common-sense reforms to our gun laws, like background checks, which will keep weapons out of the hands of criminals and the mentally unstable while respecting responsible gun owners. [WALL STREET ACCOUNTABLE] Clinton will hold Wall Street firms accountable when they break the law, so they don't just pay a fine and get a slap on the wrist. She'll also make sure individuals who break the law actually go to jail. HRC Consolidation (Exp.) HRC Expansion (Exp.) All HRC Targets HRC Core

33 When it comes to the prospect of Clinton being the first woman president, younger women care more about making history and the message it sends to future generations of women, while older women care more about bringing a woman's perspective on children / family issues. 8 Importance of First Woman President Electing Hillary Clinton as America's first woman president will make history and break our highest glass ceiling, showing our daughters and granddaughters that they can be anything they want to be. Electing Hillary Clinton as America's first woman president will bring a woman's perspective and a new focus on the needs of our children and families to the highest office in America Overall Women < Women + Women HRC Consolidation 33

34 Below is the demographic make-up of our top targets for consolidation and expansion. Combined, they each make-up half of our total target universe. DEMOGRAPHICS ALL VOTERS HRC CONSOLIDATION TARGETS HRC EXPANSION TARGETS ALL HRC TARGETS % of Electorate 1% 11% 12% 24% Male 42% 54% 37% 45% Female 58% 46% 63% 55% Ages <5 28% 27% 37% 33% Ages % 44% 27% 35% Ages % 29% 35% 32% Non-College 36% 3% 34% 32% College 63% 7% 64% 67% Very Liberal 32% 14% 32% 23% Somewhat Liberal 25% 3% 24% 27% Moderate / Cons. % 56% 38% 46% M Liberal 23% 19% 24% 22% M Mod/Cons 17% 34% 9% 21% F Liberal 34% 25% 31% 28% F Mod/Cons 23% 21% 29% 25% 34

35 Our consolidation targets are predominantly moderate, college-educated, older men, while our expansion targets skew towards younger, moderate women. The main shared trait of our consolidation and expansion targets is a disproportionate share of moderates. HRC Consolidation Targets (11%) (#) Refers to % of All Voters HRC Expansion Targets (12%) (#) Refers to % of All Voters Moderates 51% (34%) Moderate/conservative men 34% (17%) College-educated men 41% (26%) Women under 5 24% (15%) Moderate/conservative women 29% (23%) Unmarried women 27% (21%) 5-64 year-old men 24% (15%) North / Waterloo Region 22% (14%) 35

36 Contrast Issues with GOP The following issues offer our strongest contrasts with the GOP: o They support more tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations o They support cuts to Medicare and Social Security o They deny climate change is real and oppose any actions to address it o They support allowing unlimited corporate money and secret donations in political campaigns o They support a plan that cuts education funding by billions o They are trying to defund Planned Parenthood and take away women's right to basic healthcare 36

37 Messaging Imperatives Reinforce Economic Fairness Our best messages reinforce the economic fairness theme we ve been using and our biggest advantage over Sanders is that people think Hillary Clinton will be more effective on the economy, and better able to get things done. We need to be talking about policies that play to those strengths. To reinforce the economic fairness theme, we should focus on the following issues: o Cut taxes for working families and make the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share o Protect Social Security & Medicare from GOP threats and strengthen them for the future o Move beyond the uninsured and ACA and speak to helping everyday Americans lower out of pocket healthcare costs o Fight to ensure equal pay for women that helps strengthen the economic future of families o Support a constitutional amendment to get unlimited money from corporations and the super rich out of political campaigns, which stack the deck against everyday Americans 37