2016: The Year of the Outsider

Transcription

1 2016: The Year of the Outsider CCI Foundation Summer Conference Professor Floyd Ciruli Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver June 2016 Floyd Ciruli 777 Grant St., Ste 303, Denver, CO PH (303) FAX (303)

2 Trump vs. Clinton: What Does it Mean for Colorado? Topics Both parties dealing with major change/ candidates not popular Policy changes in 2017 Foreign Domestic Colorado candidates and ballot issues Swing state, great place to watch 1

3 Barry Goldwater Donald Trump Year of the Outsider Historical Precedents 1964 Barry Goldwater 1968 Eugene McCarthy 1972 George McGovern/George Wallace 1976 Jimmy Carter 1980 Ronald Reagan 1984 Gary Hart 1992 Ross Perot 1996 Pat Buchanan 2004 Howard Dean 2008 Barack Obama 2012 Herman Cain, Ron Paul 2016 Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Bernie Sanders 2 George McGovern Photo: Getty Bernie Sanders

4 Major Challenge to Parties Donald Trump Republicans Tea Party/working class revolt (limited to no government) Democrats Income inequity, anti-wall Street revolt (regulated to no capitalism) Independents Anti-gridlock, corruption, campaign finance revolt (reform to no Citizens United) Ted Cruz John Kasich Hillary Clinton Europe and U.S.: 2008/09 Economic crisis, Demographic change, Migration, Ethnic, Race, Religious tension, Terror 3 Bernie Sanders

5 Colorado Outsider Characteristics In Colorado, Independence and Anti-establishment Image and Tone are Major Asset Pat Schroeder John Hickenlooper Pat Schroeder Dick Lamm Gary Hart Ben Nighthorse Campbell Tom Tancredo John Hickenlooper Tom Tancredo Ben Nighthorse Campbell 4

6 Clinton Close to Delegate Win; Sanders Won t Quit Democratic Delegate Race Need 2,382 Delegates to Win; 906 Remaining Delegates Delegates % Votes Clinton Pledges Super delegates 1, Total 2, Sanders Pledges 1, Super delegates 44 1 Total 1, million Needs 8% of remaining delegates 10.0 million Needs 92% of remaining delegates Total 3,857 19% delegates Total Delegates 4, remaining California: Clinton: RCP 50%, PPIC 46%, Hoover 51% Sanders: RCP 42%, PPIC 44%, Hoover 38% Photo: Rich Pedroncelli/AP Bernie Sanders Source: AP, RealClearPolitics, 2016 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2016 Photo: CNN Hillary Clinton

7 Colorado Caucus Rigged or Chaos? Presidential Primary is Back Republicans 60,000 rigged No preference poll Cruz 34 delegates Trump 0 delegates Unpledged 3 Republican State Chair Steve House Democrats 120,000 chaos Super delegates Sanders 41 delegates Clinton 25 delegates Democratic State Chair Super delegates 13 Rick Palacio Clinton 9 (Hickenlooper, Bennet, Polis, DeGette) March 1 Super Tuesday to April 16 final convention 6

8 Who Will Have a More Fun Convention: Trump or Clinton? Different Conventions Same Challenges Trump Clinton Location Cleveland Philadelphia Date July July Delegates 2,472 passionate backers for nominee, but many conservative 4,765 little passion for nominee, but passion for platform dissenters Party Leadership Disgruntled, absent On board Entertainment Value Very high, top production values Good, but not exceptional Viewership Very high Better if conflict Likely to Leave Unified Maybe Maybe 7

9 Clinton vs. Trump Now What? Highly Volatile, Very Negative. The Regret Election. Favorability Rating of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump 70% 60% 54% 50% 58% 69% 50% 40% 34% 29% 30% 20% Hillary Clinton Photo: Spencer Pratt/Getty 10% 0% Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Donald Trump Photo: IPWatchdog Favorable-USA Unfavorable-USA Unfavorable-Metro Area NBC/WSJ Ciruli Associates 2016 Popularity of parties (R s 62% unfavorable to D s 50%, Pew, ); Will party vote for candidates (Trump 61%, Clinton 80%)? 8

10 2016: Democratic Sweep 1964, 1974 or Stalemate? Obama s Approval Improves President Obama s Approval Ratings Metrics Obama spread (+1%) Congressional approval 13% Generic ballot test Dems 2% Direction, right 26% House 234, need 17/lost 13 (30) Senate 45, need 6/won 9 (5) 60% 50% 40% 30% 49% 50% 50% 48% 48% 47% 54% 42% 52% 43% 49% 47% 56% 40% 51% 44% 49% 48% Approval Disapproval Source: Real Clear Politics 2013/14/15/16 Formatted: Ciruli Associates (2) 247 (+13) 54 (+9) House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Speaker Paul Ryan Senator Mitch McConnell 9

11 Immigration Polarizing Two Continents: U.S., EU, German Politicians Struggle With Solutions 80% German Chancellor Angela Merkel Welcomes refugees, Open Borders, Multi-Culturalism Her Approval Rating Plummets in % 75% 70% Angela Merkel 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 63% 50% 59% 46% 54% Welcome to the Party, Pal 40% Mar Sept Oct Dec Jan Feb Source: Deutschlandtrend survey for AfD by Infratest Dimap, N1005, Feb , ±3.1 percentage points Photo: YouTube Nationalism, Nativism, Populism, Anti-Austerity 10

12 Y Para Siempre (And Forever) Venezuela parliamentary election, recall Argentina election presidential/legislative Brazil presidential impeachment Cuba rapprochement National Assembly employees remove photos of late President Hugo Chávez in Caracas, January 6, 2016 Photo: AFP/Getty Images 11

13 Denver Metro Population Triples in 50 Years Year Denver Drops From Half to a Fifth of Metro Population, But on Tear Today Denver Population Denver Metro Population % Change Metro Population % Change Seven counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson Denver % of Metro Population , ,199-52% , ,235, , ,618, , ,848, , ,400, , ,784, , ,077,

14 Denver, Pueblo and Chicago Crime, Drugs, Gangs vs. Affordable Housing, Congestion Direction of Your Community 80% 75% 70% 60% 50% 58% 54% 40% 30% 20% 10% 28% 29% 14% 17% 18% 6% 0% Denver Pueblo Chicago Right Direction Wrong Track Don't Know Ciruli Associates 2016 NYT/Kaiser

15 Colorado Congressional Races National Politics Has Impact 1. Diana DeGette gets primary/feels the Bern 2. Jared Polis, super delegate wants leadership 3. Scott Tipton, Gail Schwartz and Donald Trump 4. Ken Buck, Ted Cruz campaign 5. Doug Lamborn primary 6. Mike Coffman funding race with Morgan Carroll, Nancy s last stand 7. Ed Perlmutter for governor? (Salazar, Kennedy) Scott Tipton Mike Coffman Gail Schwartz Morgan Carroll 14

16 Bennet is on Deck Democrats Need to Hold the Seat in 2016 Metro area 56% of state 65% of Democratic vote Job Performance Approval Denver Metro Area Voters Approve Disapprove Don t Know Governor John Hickenlooper 61% 28% 11% President Barack Obama Senator Michael Bennet Senator Cory Gardner Ciruli Associates, N300, 2016 Q: Let me ask you about your approval or disapproval of the job performance of some Colorado and national politicians. [ROTATED] Illinois New Hampshire Pennsylvania Ohio Wisconsin North Carolina 15

17 Republican U.S. Senate Candidates Colorado Primary June 28, 2016 Convention Petitions Darryl Glenn Rob Blaha Ryan Frazier Jack Graham Jon Keyser 2014 Governor Primary Votes % Bob Beauprez 116, Tom Tancredo 102, Scott Gessler 89, Mike Kopp 36, Total 384, Senate Primary Votes % Ken Buck 209, Jane Norton 196, Total 406,

18 Hickenlooper Goes to D.C. Opposite of Woe Governor Hickenlooper s Approval Among Metro Area Partisans 61% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 75% 68% 58% 34% 18% 14% 11% 12% 8% Democrat Unaffiliated Republican Approval Disapproval Don't Know Ciruli Associates, N300, 2016 Near end of term Good at politics Does he add value to ticket? Hart, Romer, Salazar? Q: Let me ask you about your approval or disapproval of the job performance of some Colorado and national politicians. [ROTATED] 17

19 Single-Payer ColoradoCare Losing in Metro Area 30% in Favor to 43% Against 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Denver Metro Area Partisan Support and Opposition Self-Description 44% 21% 35% 31% 47% 9% Democrat Unaffiliated Republican Vote For Vote Against Don't Know 71% 22% 19% Ciruli Associates, N600, 2016 Between the Clinton and establishment wing of the party versus the Sanders, liberal, youth wing of the party, there are some real tensions and difference and it plays out in singlepayer. (Colorado Public Radio, 5-16) Q: There will be a proposal, Amendment 69, on this November s election ballot to create ColoradoCare, a single-payer government run health care system for Colorado residents, partially paid for by a $25 billion dollar increase in state taxes. Will you vote for ballot Amendment 69 or vote against it? 18

20 Environment/Gas and Oil/Local Control Gas and oil development down from 2014 North Front Range communities (NIMBY) lower priority Gas and oil step up public affairs, public relations and advertising Where s the money? Environmentalism lost passion with public more partisan, more extreme, some wins, fewer problems 19 It s an extraordinary amount of money for research and polling (ColoradoComplete, ) You just don t quite sense the edginess, the concern on that issue the way you did two years ago. (Inside Energy, Corporation for Public Broadcasting)

21 Clinton vs. Trump Close, Volatile, Mean Clinton Primary on until June 7 (longer?) Slight unfavorability advantage Obama s approval 50%, electoral college advantage/has the establishment Women, minorities Commander in Chief Not change agent Not trusted Problems with youth, independents Trump Primary over May 26 Record-high unfavorability Establishment barely onboard Politically incorrect/very resilient Media savvy/counter puncher Not ideological Strong leader Change agent Anglo men, especially noncollege 20

22 1972, 1992, 2002, 2014, 2016 Colorado Politics in the 1970s 1972 Olympic bid defeated 61% 1972 Wayne Aspinall, Mr. Chairman, defeated 1972 Pat Schroeder goes to Congress 1974 Nixon resigns (August) 1974 Dick Lamm, Gary Hart, Tim Wirth, Sam Brown elected 1974 Democrats take State House, lose it in 1976 Govs. (L to R) Dick Lamm, Bill Ritter, John Hickenlooper, Bill Owens and Roy Romer at a fundraiser at the governor s mansion on Nov. 20. Photo: Bernard Grant/The Colorado Statesman Colorado Politics in the 2000s Offices All Republican 2002 All Democrat 2008 Divided 2014 Results 2016 Governor Owens R Ritter D Hickenlooper D Same U.S. Senate Campbell R Salazar D Bennet D? U.S. Senate Allard R Udall D Gardner R Same Congress 5R, 2D 2R, 5D 4R, 3D? Colorado House 37R, 28D 27R, 37D 3 seats D? Colorado Senate 18R, 17D 14R, 21D 1 seat R? President Bush 8% (2000) Obama 9% Obama 5%? Bush 5% (2004) 21