WHAT S LOOMING OVER YOUR HEAD? NATIONAL AND COLORADO POLITICS AND POLICIES IN Wednesday, March 4, 2015

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1 WHAT S LOOMING OVER YOUR HEAD? NATIONAL AND COLORADO POLITICS AND POLICIES IN 2015 Wednesday, March 4, 2015

2 WHAT S LOOMING OVER YOUR HEAD? NATIONAL AND COLORADO POLITICS AND POLICIES IN 2015 Wednesday, March 4, 2015

3 WELCOME Kirk Monroe EVP, Director of Wholesale Banking Vectra Bank Colorado

4 SPEAKER INTRODUCTION Michael Lewis Managing Partner RubinBrown

5 Floyd Ciruli is a pollster and political analyst providing consulting, strategy, policy management, public opinion research, public relations and management. Clients include major Colorado corporations, business and civic associations. Among Denver based Ciruli Associates specialties is consulting for government, nonprofit and corporate organizations proposing initiatives for public approval.

6 The New Political Environment Opportunity and Risk Floyd Ciruli March 2015 Ciruli Associates 1115 Grant St., Ste G 6 Denver, CO PH (303) FAX (303)

7 The New Colorado Election System 2014 election The new Colorado election system Nationalization of election All Obama, all the time Harry vs. Mitch show Proliferation of forecasts Who s in and out Who s up and down Money is overwhelming Mostly independent, out-of-state TV is still king, advertisements at saturation Power of media Endorsements Debates, truth tests Ideological web platforms 7

8 U.S. Generations Years Born Ages Today High School Years Formative Experiences Greatest Generation WWI, Roaring Twenties, Crash, Depression Silent Generation End of WWII, Cold War, Post-war boom, civil rights Baby Boomers Cold War, urban riots, Kennedy, space, King, Vietnam, protest, Woodstock, Haight-Ashbury, Nixon, Silent Majority Generation X Feminism, MTV, Chernobyl, Reagan, AIDS, end of Soviet empire, Rodney King, globalization, Clinton Millennials/ Generation Y Internet, Columbine, Y2K, smartphone, Bush, Twin Towers, Katrina, War on Terror, Iraq, Great Recession, Obama, social media, reality TV, gay rights, legal pot Generation Z Ciruli Associates

9 Millennials Size of Generations Generation Ages Numbers in Short Millennial million 79 million Generation X million 50 million Baby Boomer million 17 million Silent million -- Greatest 88 and older? -- Ideology of Generations Source: Pew Research 2015 Formatted: Liberal Moderate Conservative Gap Millennial (18-34) 30% 40% 28% -2 Generation X (35-50) Baby Boomers (51-69) Silent/Greatest (over 69) Overall Source: Pew Research 2015 Formatted: 9

10 Changes in Colorado Voters Social Viewpoints Legalize Recreational Marijuana and Approve Civil Unions Colorado 2006 and percentage point shift from 2006 to Amendment 43: yes 56%; prohibited minority status for gays Yes 2006 Legalize No 2006 Yes 2012 Legalize No 2012 Yes 2006 Civil unions No 2006 Civil unions Yes 2013 Poll No 2013 Poll 22% 41% 45% 47% 55% 53% 59% Sources: Colorado Secretary of the State, 2006, 2013; Quinnipiac 2013 Formatted: Ciruli Associates % 10

11 One Country Two Governments White House and Congress President Barack Obama Vice President Joe Biden Different elections 2008, 2012 vs. 2010, 2014 Democrats vs. Republicans Different constituencies Young vs. old College educated vs. attended Color vs. White Different powers Executive vs. Finance Pulpit vs. courts Different agendas Immigration Foreign policy o Iran, Ukraine, ISIS Spending vs. debt Equality vs. growth 11 Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell House Speaker John Boehner

12 2014: Wave or No Wave Nationalization or All Elections are Local or Both Metrics Obama spread (4%) Congressional approval 19% Generic ballot test Reps 2% Direction, right 33% House 234, need 17/lost 13 (30) Senate 45, need 6/won 9 (5) 60% 50% 40% 30% President Obama s Approval Ratings % 54% 49% 50% 52% 56% 51% 49% 50% 48% 48% 47% 42% 43% 47% 40% 44% 46% (2) 247 (+13) 54 (+9) Approval Disapproval Source: Real Clear Politics 2013/14/15 Formatted: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Speaker John Boehner 12 Senator Mitch McConnell

13 Bennet is on Deck Democrats Need 5 Seats to Win Back Senate in 2016 There are several factors that point to his initial advantages going into the election: Voter turnout will be up to presidential levels. The 2 million this year will balloon to 2.8 or 3.0 million. Many of the less frequent voters lean Democratic. Bennet works his Washington and Senate networks for maximum advantage. He s substantially less publicity shy than Mark Udall. It s assumed he ll be ready with a powerful resume and a substantial war chest. Denver Post likes him. The Republican bench in Colorado is thin if current officeholders are the main prospective candidates. Congressman Coffman and State Treasurer Stapleton may not be interested. But there are several factors that point to a tough race for Bennet: The Democratic nominee for president and Democratic senators up for re-election will likely be running with a very unpopular president. Historically, passing on the presidency to the same party after an unpopular president is difficult. 13

14 Hillary Inevitable? Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton was called inevitable in She lost to Barack Obama. Is she inevitable today? Bill Clinton 40% ahead Behind in Iowa polls Obama and Edwards doing well in invisible primary Obama already declared She voted for war Black voters for Obama Got 48% even with handicaps 14 60% ahead Ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire Biden, no traction (VP), Warren, modest support not running No one declared, no other money No obvious issues with base of opposition (deep liberals) Women leadership

15 Control of U.S. Senate 2014 Forecasts Mostly Right; Miss Size of Republican Tide Montana R-18 (18) November 4 and Results South Dakota Iowa R-11 (20) R-2 (8) New Hampshire D-1 (4) Kentucky R-7 (15) West Virginia R-16 (28) North Carolina D-1 (R-2) Colorado R-2 (2) Georgia R-3 (8) Alaska R-2 (4) Kansas I-1 (R-11) Louisiana R-5 (13) Arkansas R-7 (16) Win the Senate % R Huffington Post 77% R New York Times 70% R R win 7, maybe 9 15

16 Forecasts and Results on Udall vs. Gardner Calling the Race, Election Night Narrative, Final Results The forecasters, such as FiveThirtyEight, New York Times, Washington Post and Huffington Post, are predicting Cory Gardner the Senate winner with higher and higher percentages. The Buzz, Udall Will Lose November 4, 2014 Forecast % New York Times FiveThirtyEight Huffington Post Washington Post 80 R 81 R 66 R 97 R Year Candidate Vote % Difference 2008 Udall D 1,230, ,239 Schaffer R 990, Udall D 944, ,888 Gardner R 983,

17 New Model: Udall Loses With Swing Counties Gov. John Hickenlooper Hickenlooper Udall Adams Wins by 7,000 Wins by 4,000 Arapahoe Wins by 18,000 Wins by 3,000 Jefferson Wins by 15,000 Wins by 900 Larimer Wins by 7,000 Loses by 600 Pueblo Wins by 3,000 Wins by 300 Ciruli Associates Former Sen. Mark Udall

18 1972, 1992, 2002, 2014 Colorado Politics in the 70s 1972 Olympic bid defeated 61% 1972 Wayne Aspinall, Mr. Chairman, defeated 1972 Pat Schroeder goes to Congress 1974 Nixon resigns (August) 1974 Dick Lamm, Gary Hart, Tim Wirth, Sam Brown elected 1974 Democrats take State House, lose it in 1976 Colorado Politics in the 2000s All Republican All Democrat 2008 Divided 2014 Results Offices Governor Owens R Ritter D Hickenlooper D U.S. Senate Campbell R Salazar D Bennet D U.S. Senate Allard R Udall D Gardner R Congress 5R, 2D 2R, 5D 4R, 3D Colorado House 37R, 28D 27R, 37D 3 seats D Colorado Senate 18R, 17D 14R, 21D 1 seat R President Bush 8% (2000) Bush 5% (2004) Obama 9% Obama 5%

19 Former Mayor Bill McNichols Denver Mayor Unopposed? Bill McNichols Federico Peña Wellington Webb John Hickenlooper Michael Hancock Denver Mayors (4 terms) (2 terms) (3 terms) (2 terms) (1 term) Note: McNichols served 3 years remaining on Tom Currigan s second term. John Hickenlooper resigned to run for governor of Colorado near the end of his second term. He was replaced for 7 months by Bill Vidal (Jan. 12 to Jul. 18, 2011). Floyd Ciruli Ciruli Associates 2014 Mayor Michael Hancock There is generally a good feeling about the city right now, he said. And Hancock nicely represents a fulcrum point in the politics of the city. He is not too left or not too right. Ultimately, the final thing is leadership, Ciruli said. Is there someone with the name ID and money and grassroots support not just a gadfly or marginal candidate? I don't see that person. (Denver Post, ) 19

20 Denver Metro Population Triples in 50 Years Denver Drops From Half to a Fifth of Population Denver Metro Population Year Denver Population % Change Metro Population % Change Denver % of Metro Population , ,199-52% , ,235, , ,618, , ,848, , ,400, , ,784, Seven counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson 20

21 Nature/Science Art MuseumZoo Botanic Gardens Childrens Museum DCPA Butterfly Pavillion Broncos Symphony vada Center enlooper Favorability Rating in Region Regional Cultural Organizations are Very Popular Voters Highest Rating of Favorability for Culture, Sports and Politicians 25% Very Favorable 21 76% 69% 62% 60% 59% 56% 55% 53% 48% 43% Ciruli Associates, N600, 2013

22 Denver Metro Economic Surge The latest sales tax revenue report from the Denver metro seven-county region shows a 9.22 percent increase over last year. A one-percent sales tax collected region-wide would have produced $467 million for local governments (or RTD) through September, on its way to more than half billion by year s end. Colorado s economy in 2014 has benefitted from the national economic improvement and specifically local population increases (4 th fastest growth in U.S. in 2014). One risk is the impact of declining oil prices on metro economic activity. $600,000,000 One Percent Denver Metro (7 county) Sales Tax Revenue Increase from 2013 to 2014 $400,000,000 $200,000,000 $0 *estimate November 2014 December Source: State of Colorado 2014 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014

23 Colorado Legislation and Ballot Issues Legislation Spending/TABOR Fracking Construction defects Education/health care Marijuana Social issues Transportation Water Ballot Issues 145 filed, 4 make it, 1 wins Personhood loses Gaming loses Open meeting wins Labeling loses 23

24 H2O 2015: The Year of Water One of the newly re-elected Governor Hickenlooper s priorities in 2015 is to refine the just released draft state water plan into a final document. I think pressure is building to make some decision. (Ciruli, 9KUSA, ) State Water Policy Support Strongly agree average 52%, total agree 86% A considerable amount of water that belongs to Colorado flows out of the state. Colorado should maintain and store its legal share of water 63%/89%. Colorado believes creating a water plan will require cooperation and compromise. Citizens and water experts in each of the main river basins, like the Colorado, Arkansas and Platte rivers, have been meeting together for several years to help design a water plan. This work should continue 60%/89%. Colorado believes water strategies and projects must be developed to avoid the loss of irrigated agriculture in the state 57%/88%. One good aspect of a state plan is the cooperation among smaller and larger cities and the urban areas and agricultural communities 48%/82%. Colorado believes it will require several actions to address the gap, including water conservation, reuse, water storage and developing new supplies 47%/87%. Colorado will develop a state water plan to address the gap, which is a good idea 37%/80%. 24

25 TABOR Timeout? Surplus over population growth and inflation Last timeout 2005 Referendum C, Governor Owens Legal challenge, Republican form of government Elected Republicans mostly support refund; Democrats don t, but not willing to take on Business, local government and civic community don t see path forward 2005 Referendum C Metro Vote -52% Yes Adams 41% Arapahoe 52 Boulder 63 Broomfield 51 Denver 65 Douglas 48 Jefferson 50 Total 54% Prospects for change poor, but more surplus coming 25

26 Fracking: Compromise or 2016 Election? Gov. John Hickenlooper Sen. Bill Cadman Task force report due February 27 (more regulation, more local control?) Divided legislature needed if statutory changes Plunging gas prices Less exploration Few jobs Some cities still oppose Ballot initiative(s) in 2016? 26 Sen. Jared Polis Sen. Dickey Lee Hullinghorst

27 Marijuana Okay, It was Reckless, Now What? Usage up, not support 10% to 12% usage; second to Rhode Island; 12% of impaired drivers due to marijuana But has same support as 2012: 50% to 55% Public concerned about national, international reputation Building political infrastructure: Campaign contributions, lobbyists, cartel approach Continue to regulate and monitor. Data collection important. 27

28 Use Public and Elite Opinion to Forecast Change in Policy Direction Forecast 2016 foreign policy top of agenda, moving toward power projections, defense spending/forward positioning (NATO, Far East), boots on ground Ciruli Blogs Failure of Diplomacy Ukraine Policy in Transition Public Supports ISIS Authorization and Some Ground Troops Even Obama is Moving to the Right of Obama There is No Military Solution National Security Strategy and Sexual Identity Politics The Europe of Brussels is Dead 28

29 Geopolitical Risk Weather Economy Political turmoil Political gridlock Social turbulence Populism Pandemic Tech disruption 100-year flood Gas and oil down 50%, EU weak, euro parity, China, Japan Crimea, Charlie Hebdo, ISIL Shutdown, sequester, TABOR Ferguson Anti-fracking, anti-immigration, Arab Spring, Tea Party Ebola, flu, measles Hacking, rioting, terror networks 29

30 Mark Williams Senior Member Sherman & Howard

31 THANK YOU FOR JOINING US!