2014 Midterm Election Results

Transcription

1 2014 Midterm Election Results Forecasting and Results Professor Floyd Ciruli Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research Korbel School of International Studies November 2014 Ciruli Associates 1115 Grant St., Ste G-6 Denver, CO PH (303) FAX (303)

2 2014: Wave or No Wave Nationalization or All Elections are Local or Both Metrics Obama spread (11%) Congressional approval 13% Generic ballot test Reps 2% Direction, right 27% House 234, need 17 Senate 55, need 6 60% 50% 40% 30% President Obama s Approval Ratings % 49% 50% 50% 48% 47% 54% 42% 52% 43% 49% 47% 56% 40% 51% 53% 44% 42% Approval Disapproval Source: Real Clear Politics 2013/14 House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Speaker John Boehner Senator Mitch McConnell 1

3 Democrats in Difficult Races Seats with late poll showing Democrats in danger of losing. Current prediction: Republicans win six seats 75% (538). Amanda Curtis Montana Democrat Mark Begich Alaska Democrat Mary L. Landrieu Louisiana Democrat Mark Pryor Arkansas Democrat Mark Udall Colorado Democrat Kay Hagan North Carolina Democrat 99% Chance of losing seat 67% Chance of losing seat 77% Chance of losing seat 90% Chance of losing seat 75% Chance of losing seat 32% Chance of losing seat R +18 R +2 R +5 R +7 R +2 D +1 Sources: 538, Nov. 3, 2014; Real Clear Politics, Nov. 3,

4 Thirteen Key States Control of U.S. Senate 2014 Montana R-16 November 3, 2014 South Dakota R-11 Iowa R-2 New Hampshire D-1 Kentucky R-7 West Virginia R-16 Alaska R-2 Colorado R-2 Kansas I-1 Louisiana R-5 Arkansas R-7 North Carolina D-1 Georgia R-3 Win the Senate % R Huffington Post 77% R New York Times 70% R 3

5 Colorado Senate Race Top of List Gardner by Two Points; Post Endorses Gardner vs. Udall Real Clear Politics Abut 85 percent of Colorado voters immediately decided who they supported. Since then, the lead has shifted and remains close. Gardner s current lead is just at the margin of error in the polling average. Denver Post Perspective, Poll Date Gardner Udall Average % 44% PPP Quinnipiac YouGov Denver Post Quinnipiac Rasmussen CBS/NYT/YouGov NBC/Marist USA Today/Suffolk Quinnipiac Denver Post CBS/NYT/YouGov Quinnipiac Denver Post Source: Real Clear Politics 2014 Sen. Mark Udall Sen. Cory Gardner 4

6 Forecasts on Udall vs. Gardner November 3, 2014 Udall Will Lose The forecasters, such as FiveThirtyEight, New York Times, Washington Post and Huffington Post, are predicting Cory Gardner the Senate winner with higher and higher percentages. Forecast % New York Times 80 R FiveThirtyEight 81 R Huffington Post 66 R Washington Post 97 R Cook Toss-up Rothenberg Toss-up Sabato Lean R The Buzz,

7 War on Women Overkill? One Dimensional, Loses Favorability, Alienates Men Colorado Senate Race Gender Differences Republicans win as gender gap shrinks. Wall Street Journal, Udall Gardner Difference Favor Quinnipiac Men 34% 53% 19 Gardner Women Udall Source: Quinnipiac, PPP Men 39% 46% 7 Gardner Women Udall Source: PPP, USA Today/Suffolk Men 38% 46% 8 Gardner Women Gardner Source: USA Today/Suffolk,

8 Game Changer DENVER POST Endorsement The overall theme is that the best anecdote to gridlock is change. Washington is gridlocked. It needs fresh leadership, energy and ideas. Gardner has been a reservoir of ideas and leadership from the start of his career. Udall is a fine man, but not perceived as a leader and not at the center of the issues that count. Udall s multi-million dollar war on women ad campaign is now damaging him more than Gardner. As the Post says, the obnoxious one-issue campaign is insult to those he seeks to convince. Flipping the Senate to Republican control will, in their view, be more productive for the next two years. President Obama s desire for a legacy and Republican self-interest in repairing their reputation for gridlock could converge and would be enhanced in the Post s view by Gardner s election (See The Buzz, October 13). 7

9 Changing the Turnout? Voter Registration Oct Voters In Oct. 29, 2014 Unaffiliated 35% 3rd Parties 2% Unaffiliated 27% 3rd Parties 1% Democrats 31% Democrat 32% Republicans 32% Republican 40% Active Registered Date Voter Returns Voter Returns % Dems % Rep % Unaffiliated % 2,916, , % 8,714 32% 12,766 46% 5,864 21% 2,916, ,050 11% 105,401 32% 145,824 44% 77,285 23% 2,916, ,610 17% 164,443 32% 226,923 44% 121,812 23% 2,916, ,500 31% 294,648 33% 379,250 42% 222,043 24% 2,916, ,607,220 55% 519,225 32% 636,223 40% 433,648 27% 8

10 Governor Race - Tie; Denver Post and Pueblo Chieftain Endorse Hick Approval 46% to 45% (Sept. 2014); Approval 62% to 19% (Sept. 2012); J. Brown Approval 58% (Sept.) Denver Post Denver Post Gubernatorial Polls CBS News NBC News Denver Post YouGov Quinnipiac Hickenlooper 45% 45% 48% 46% 46% 44% 43% Beauprez Don t know/other Sources: Quinnipiac, Denver Post, CBS, NBC, YouGov 2014 Gov. John Hickenlooper Bob Beauprez Party Control of States 37 One-Party Left Middle Right Democrat Bipartisan Republican 14 States 12 States 23 States *Nebraska is non-partisan (conservative control) **24 states had one-party control in 1980, 20 states in 1990, 21 states in

11 Sixth Congressional Difficult Year for Democratic Challenger Obama Wins it by Five Points in 2012 Voter Affiliation in the 6 th Congressional District Floyd Ciruli Andrew Romanoff Rep. Mike Coffman Unaffiliated, 33.6% Democrat, 31.8% Republican, 33.6% Sources: Denver Post 2014 Denver District court records Secretary of State Nancy Pelosi is not going to add 17 seats (for Democrats to retake the House) without getting this one. It ll be one of the most heavily fought races in the country. It ll be highly negative. I have no doubt about that. (Denver Post, Jan. 19, 2014) 2012 votes: Adams 39,166; Arapahoe 248,461; Douglas 55,287 10

12 Down Ballot Republican Advantage Colorado State Constitutional Offices USA Today PPP USA Today Denver Post Attorney General Don Quick, D 30% 32% 31% 38% Cynthia Coffman, R Other Don t know State Treasurer Betsy Markey, D -- 40% -- 41% Walker Stapleton, R Other Don t know Secretary of State Joe Neguse, D 29% 31% 28% 39% Wayne Williams, R Other Don t know Sources: USA Today/Suffolk, PPP 2014 Cynthia Coffman Don Quick

13 Colorado State Legislature The Change Partisan Comparison State House State Senate Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Governor Ritter Hickenlooper Hickenlooper Hickenlooper Senate House SD 5 Western Slope HD 3 Arapahoe SD 11 Colorado Springs HD 11 Colorado Springs SD 16 Jefferson HD 33 Broomfield SD 19 Arapahoe HD 50 Greeley SD 20 Jefferson HD 59 Southwest SD 22 SD 24 Jefferson Adams 12

14 Colorado Ballot Issues 145 Filed, 4 Make Ballot, 1 Ahead USA Today USA Today Denver Post Amendment 67 - Personhood Yes 35% 31% 32% No Don t know Amendment 68 Gaming at Racetracks Yes 33% 21% 32% No Don t know Proposition 104 School Board Open Meetings Yes 54% 64% 61% No Don t know Proposition 105 Label Genetically Modified Food Yes 52% 30% 34% No Don t know

15 $100 Million-Dollar Senate Race Mostly TV, Mostly Negative Contributions September 30 Gardner Udall Total Candidate $ 9.3 million $17.7 million $27.0 million Independent committees 26.8 million 29.2 million 56.0 million Total $36.1 million $46.9 million $83.0 million Source: Denver Post 2014 Brandon Rittiman of 9News tosses coin in debate with Mark Udall (L) and Cory Gardner (R) Photo: Brennan Linsley, AP 14

16 Colorado Politics in Transition Election Isn t About Colorado Any More Nationalization of 2014 Colorado election Change of Senate Forecasting No local issues Flood of money $100 million Senate Mostly independent expenditures TV is king TV debates, advertisements, truth tests GOTV is challenger/online third Denver Post endorsement still powerful Gridlock, change, poor campaign No access, less free media No mistake campaigns 15