Toplines. UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Registered/Likely Voters

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1 Toplines UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Registered/Likely Voters Field Dates: September 15 - September 20, 2016 Sample: 800 Registered Voters in Massachusetts 700 Likely Voters Margin of Error: 4.1% for Registered Voters 4.3% for Likely Voters YouGov interviewed 837 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology, and political interest. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2012 American Community Survey (ACS) sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on voter registration status and turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2012 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification were then matched to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Life Survey. The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and ideology. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. All figures presented in this document are for registered adults unless otherwise noted. UMass Poll Directors/Fellows Brian F. Schaffner, Ph.D. Director schaffne@polsci.umass.edu Raymond La Raja, Ph.D. Associate Director laraja@polsci.umass.edu Tatishe Nteta, Ph.D. Associate Director nteta@polsci.umass.edu Mia Costa Research Fellow micosta@polsci.umass.edu Kaylee Johnson Research Fellow ktjohnson@polsci.umass.edu poll@polsci.umass.edu - 1

2 If the presidential election were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? If answered not sure then follow up question was Who would you say you are leaning towards voting for? W/o Leaners W/ Leaners W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other Not sure Among Trump Supporters: Is your vote for Donald Trump more of a vote in support of Trump or against Hillary Clinton? In support of Trump Against Clinton Among Clinton Supporters Is your vote for Hillary Clinton more of a vote in support of Clinton or against Donald Trump? In support of Clinton Against Trump poll@polsci.umass.edu - 2

3 There will be four questions on the ballot in November. If the election were held today, how would you vote on each of the following? If answered not sure then follow up question was How would you say you are leaning towards voting? Question 1 would allow the state Gaming Commission to issue one additional category 2 license, which would permit operation of a gaming establishment with no table games and not more than 1,250 slot machines. W/o Leaners W/ Leaners W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Yes No Not Sure Question 2 would allow the state Board of Elementary and Secondary Education to approve up to 12 new charter schools or enrollment expansions in existing charter schools each year. W/o Leaners W/ Leaners W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Yes No Not Sure Question 3 would prohibit any farm owner or operator from knowingly confining any breeding pig, calf raised for veal, or egg-laying hen in a way that prevents the animal from lying down, standing up, fully extending its limbs, or turning around freely. W/o Leaners W/ Leaners W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Yes No Not Sure Question 4 would permit the possession, use, distribution, and cultivation of marijuana in limited amounts by persons age 21 and older and would remove criminal penalties for such activities. W/o Leaners W/ Leaners W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Yes No Not Sure poll@polsci.umass.edu - 3

4 All remaining results are for all registered voters. In a few words, please explain why you oppose legalizing marijuana in Massachusetts. Asked if R opposes Question 4. Coded for the first reason mentioned. Hurts individuals and society 36 It s a gateway drug 14 Increases crime/dangerous 10 It s addictive and dangerous 9 Medical use ok, but not recreational 7 It s illegal and needs to be policed 6 Bad for young people 5 In a few words, please explain why you support legalizing marijuana in Massachusetts. Asked if R supports Question 4. Coded for the first reason mentioned. Not as dangerous as other drugs 30 Enforcement is expensive and problematic 19 It has medical benefits 15 Need better regulation and tax revenue 13 It s a personal choice/people will do it anyway 11 Other 12 If marijuana were legal, would any of the following bother you? Would bother People using marijuana in public 61 Advertisements for marijuana on television, radio, or billboards. 52 A store or business selling marijuana opening up in your neighborhood 41 People growing up to 12 marijuana plants in their own homes 24 People using marijuana in their own homes 11 If marijuana were legal, how often do you think you would use it? More than once a week 10 Once a week 3 Once or twice a month 4 A few times a year 4 Seldom 9 Never 64 Not sure 7 poll@polsci.umass.edu - 4

5 Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction 18 Wrong track 64 Not sure 18 Do you think things in Massachusetts are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction 37 Wrong track 40 Not sure 23 Do you approve or disapprove of the way each is doing their job? Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly approve approve disapprove disapprove Not sure President Barack Obama Governor Charlie Baker Senator Elizabeth Warren Senator Edward Markey Atty. General Maura Healey Mayor Marty Walsh What is your opinion of the following individuals? Very Somewhat Somewhat Very favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorable Not sure Hillary Clinton Donald Trump President Barack Obama Governor Charlie Baker Senator Elizabeth Warren Senator Edward Markey Atty. General Maura Healey Mayor Marty Walsh Former Governor Deval Patrick poll@polsci.umass.edu - 5

6 What one word would you use to describe the following individuals? Hillary Clinton Donald Trump - 6

7 What one word would you use to describe the following individuals? Charlie Baker Elizabeth Warren - 7

8 In a word or two, what do you think is the most important issue facing Massachusetts? Economy/jobs 28 Healthcare 12 Taxes 8 Federal deficit/gov t spending 8 Immigration 6 Education 6 Crime/Violence 5 Gov t ethics 4 Electing the right people to office 4 Infrastructure 3 Social issues 3 Income inequality 3 Environment/climate change 3 Guns 1 Other 6 poll@polsci.umass.edu - 8

9 Thinking back on Governor Baker s past two years in office, would you say that Massachusetts is better off or worse off than it was before? Better off than before 27 About the same 55 Worse off than before 10 Not Sure 8 Do you happen to know whether Governor Charlie Baker has endorsed Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump? Yes, Baker has endorsed Trump 2 No, Baker has not endorsed Trump 48 Not sure 50 How likely do you think it is that Governor Charlie Baker will vote for Donald Trump? Very likely 3 Somewhat likely 15 Somewhat unlikely 19 Very unlikely 26 Not sure 37 When it comes to the positions they hold on important issues, would you say that Charlie Baker and Donald Trump are...? Very similar 1 Mostly similar 15 Mostly different 29 Very different 23 Not sure 33 poll@polsci.umass.edu - 9

10 2018 Potential Matchups In 2018, Republican Governor Charlie Baker will be up for re-election. If Baker was running against [CANDIDATE NAME] in the election for governor, who would you be most likely to vote for? Each respondent was asked about three pairings. Candidates were described by title, name and party. N is approximately 400 registered voters for each matchup. Baker 39 Baker 40 Baker 43 Katherine Clark 24 Setti Warren 17 Maura Healey 25 Not sure 31 Not sure 36 Not sure 29 Would not vote 5 Would not vote 7 Would not vote 4 Baker 37 Baker 39 Baker 33 Marty Walsh 28 Seth Moulton 21 Joe Kennedy III 33 Not sure 32 Not sure 34 Not sure 29 Would not vote 4 Would not vote 6 Would not vote 6 In 2018, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren will be up for re-election. If Warren was running against [CANDIDATE NAME] in the election for senator, who would you be most likely to vote for? Each respondent was asked about three pairings. Candidates were described by title, name and party. N is approximately 450 registered voters for each matchup. Warren 47 Warren 44 Warren 40 Curt Schilling 28 Mitt Romney 31 William Weld 37 Not sure 16 Not sure 15 Not sure 16 Would not vote 9 Would not vote 10 Would not vote 8 Warren 39 Warren 40 Richard Tisei 32 Karyn Polito 36 Not sure 26 Not sure 19 Would not vote 3 Would not vote 5 poll@polsci.umass.edu

11 Sample Demographics Category Registered Voters Likely Voters Gender Male 46% 44% Female 54% 56% Age % 16% % 42% % 42% Education HS or less 31% 28% Some college 19% 19% College degree 33% 34% Postgraduate 18% 20% Party ID Democrat 33% 35% Republican 12% 12% Independent 54% 53% Ideology Liberal 22% 24% Moderate 40% 38% Conservative 29% 31% Income < $40k 33% 32% $40 - $100k 47% 47% > $100k 20% 21% poll@polsci.umass.edu