ANALYZING SOCIAL India s 2011 MEDIA MOMENTUM Anticorruption

Transcription

1 ANALYZING SOCIAL India s 2011 MEDIA MOMENTUM Anticorruption Movement Prepared for: The U.S. Office of South Asia Policy By: Sasha Bong Kenneth Chung Karen Parkinson Andrew Peppard Justin Rabbach Nicole Thiher

2 RESEARCH QUESTIONS Explore role of social media in social movements How did India s anticorruption movement use Facebook? How is user activity on Facebook related to type of content? How do real-world protest events and government actions affect user activity?

3 SOCIAL MEDIA IN INDIA AND THE 2011 ANTI-CORRUPTION MOVEMENT Lokpal arose as a possible solution to India s ongoing corruption problem Lokpal would create ombudsman Versions proposed since 1968 Exclusion of key officials (especially Prime Minister) is a lingering issue Key events: April, August, and December

4 DATA COLLECTION Narrowed our focus to Facebook India Against Corruption (official page), Anna Hazare (fan page) Facebook provides easily identifiable measures of interactions with post content Likes: positive and supportive of content, unique users Comments: positive or negative, unique or repeat users We used levels of user interaction with post content as a measurement of social engagement

5 FACEBOOK INTERACTIONS

6 SOCIAL AND TRADITIONAL MEDIA COMPARISON Print Media Articles per Day F M A M J J A S O N D J F AH + IAC Likes AH + IAC Comments Times of India + The Hindu AH + IAC Likes, Comments per Day Thousands s

7 MARCH 25 APRIL 4 The movement begins following a failed March 28 th meeting: The sub-committee met colleagues of Hazare "but the interactions proved fruitless as the activists were insisting on the government accepting their draft in full. Times of India news article, April 4 After meeting with PM ended inconclusively, there is no point in meeting more ministers and committees we demand Jan Lokpal and we will have it!!!! IAC Facebook post, March 25 Delhi / NCR Volunteer Meet on Sunday 27th March to mobilise maximum people for Anna Hazare s fast. Lets create a Tahrir Chowk at Jantar Mantar. All Delhi volunteers, please join us. IAC Facebook post, March 25

8 DECEMBER 22 JANUARY 5 How did the movement end? Where is the movement today? Due to what is happening in the Parliament, the Anshan will finish today and our aim for now will be voter awareness and the elections in the five states, Anna. IAC Facebook post, December 28, 4:49 a.m. CST The anti-corruption movement is at the crossroads today. Where do we go from here?. If we do not go for the tour of election-bound states, what should we do? Should Anna go for another fast? But the government has already indicated that if people participating in the movement don t translate into votes, they don t care. Some have suggested we should form our own party. But we neither have the will nor the capacity. IAC Facebook post, January 5, 2012, 9:21 p.m. CST

9 ANALYTICAL GOALS Correlation between Facebook user activity, news media coverage, and movement activity on the ground Used regression analysis to determine the following: Which themes were important in what phases? Did their importance change over time? Are real world events one of the main drivers of Facebook interaction?

10 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES Real World Events Government actions; Protests; Parliamentary Sessions Days of the week Phases Protests (2, 4, 6); Lulls (1, 3, 5, 7) Themes Corruption, Lokpal, Anna Hazare, Hunger Strike, Demonstration, and Government Theme/Phase Interactions Post Characteristics Video, Photos, News Articles, Blog Posts

11 PARLIAMENTARY SESSIONS AH + IA AC Likes, Comments per Day x Budget Monsoon Winter 1 0 F M A M J J A S O N D J F AH + IAC Likes AH + IAC Comments ParlSess Parliamen nt in Sessio on

12 DEPENDENT VARIABLES

13 BASIC MODEL OUTPUT Basic Model Explanatory Variables Percentage Change Percentage Change in in Comments on a Likes on a Post Post Hazare 4.3% 4.2% Hunger Strike 4.4% RW Protest Event 7.7% 8.7% RW Positive Gov't Act 14.1% 15.2% RW Negative Gov't Act 15.0% RW Parliament Session 21.2% Video 4.5% 7.4% Wednesday 8.8% 15.0% Thursday 13.1% 1% 16.5% Friday 10.9% 16.1%

14 INTERACTION MODEL OUTPUT Explanatory Variables Interaction Model Percentage Change in Likes on a Post Percentage Change in Comments on a Post Corruption Phase 5 7.0% Demonstration Phase % Government Phase % Hazare 60.6% 56.7% Hazare Phase 2 9.4% 0.9% Hazare Phase 3 9.5% 5.6% HazarePhase 4 2.7% 2.3% Hazare Phase 5 3.8% 9.2% Hazare Phase 6 4.8% 3.1% Hazare Phase 7 8.4% 0.1% Hunger Strike Phase % Hunger Strike Phase % Explanatory Variables Interaction Model Percentage Change in Likes on a Post Lokpal Phase 2 9.6% Lokpal Phase 3 8.8% Percentage Change in Comments on a Post Lokpal Phase % LokpalPhase % RW Protest Event 14.4% RW Positive Gov't Act 13.3% 14.2% RW Negative Gov't Act 15.0% RW Parliament Session 7.8% 16.0% Video 5.3% 7.9% Wednesday 9.1% 15.3% Thursday 14.0% 17.8% Friday 11.0% 16.5%

15 POST THEMES BY PHASE Posts eme entage of P taining The Perce Cont 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Phase Corruption Lokpal Hazare Hunger Strike Demonstration Government

16 RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS Not able to determine causal relationships between social media content and effect on real world action Predictive ability in understanding how a movement may respond to a specific government action or in a certain situation Implications for the use of social media in movements for governments or organizers Potential for greater real time data collection and broader source collection to inform conclusions

17 QUESTIONS? Thank You For further information Contact the La Follette School s publications office at (608) or publications@lafollette.wisc.edu Or see

18 y DAY-OF-THE-WEEK ACTIVITY 2.0 number of ificant Posts Averagee number of posts pe r weekday Average Most Sign Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun AvgPosts AvgMostSigPost 1.0

19 FACEBOOK VS. REAL WORLD PROTESTS AH + IAC Likes, Comments per day x Real world protest event R F M A M J J A S O N D J F AH + IAC Likes AH + IAC Comments ProtestEvent

20 FACEBOOK VS. GOVERNMENT ACTION (-) Likes and Comments per day x Real world government action (-) F M A M J J A S O N D J F AH + IAC Likes AH + IAC Comments NegGovAct AH, IAC

21 FACEBOOK VS. GOVERNMENT ACTION (+) AH + IAC Likes, Comments per day x Real world government action F M A M J J A S O N D J F AH + IAC Likes AH + IAC Comments PosGovAct