Denmark: Uniting local and European perspectives

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1 FIFTH FRAMEWORK RESEARCH PROGRAMME ( ) Democratic Participation and Political Communication in Systems of Multi-level Governance Denmark: Uniting local and European perspectives Palle Svensson and Søren Risbjerg Thomsen University of Aarhus Presentation made at the Conference on European Public Opinion and the 2004 European Parliament Elections, Paul Henri Spaak Building, The European Parliament, Brussels, Belgium September 18, 2003

2 The turnout in national and European parliamentary elections in Denmark is different both with regard to level and to development. The turnout in national parliamentary elections is at a high level, whereas the turnout in the European Parliamentary elections has consistently shown a very substantial deficit. It has been rather stable at about 50 per cent, whereas the turnout in national parliamentary elections has after a short decline in the 1980s increased during the 1990s. Thus, whereas turnout has declined in parliamentary elections in other European countries, it has actually increased in Denmark. << See, figure 1 >> Figure 1 shows that the turnout in the European elections in Denmark is lower than both national and local elections. The election in 2001 was exceptional as the national and the local elections were held on the same day, which explains the sudden increase in county and municipal election turnout. The turnout in the Danish referendums on European issues is at about the same level as the turnout in the national parliamentary elections. Denmark is often described as a very homogenous country. Nevertheless, we find very interesting geographical variations in turnout. In the maps we have used ecological (electoral results) data and as units we have used the municipalities outside Copenhagen and the polling station districts in Copenhagen. << See, figure 2 >> Taking a look at the European Parliament election in 1999, there is a clear centre-periphery pattern with regard to turnout. Electoral participation was highest in and around Copenhagen, in particular in the well-to-do areas populated with a large number of well-educated people, whereas it was lowest in the rural parts of the country, the western part of Zealand and the western and northern parts of Jutland. In the municipal elections in 1997, we do not find the same centre-periphery pattern. On the contrary, the turnout was lowest in Copenhagen and higher in the rural areas in Jutland. It seems as if voter turnout is influenced by quite different factors in European and local elections in Denmark. 1

3 The turnout in the referendum on the single currency in 2000 and the national election to the Danish parliament, the Folketing, are very similar, but neither follows the geographical pattern of the European nor the local elections. The turnout was low in Copenhagen and high in rural areas in Jutland in this respect it is similar to the 1997 local elections but high in the well-to-do areas in and around Copenhagen a pattern that was similar to that noted for the European election of In order to explain the geographical patterns of turnout at various levels of government in Denmark we have estimated the turnout of various occupational groups. << See, figure 3 >> If we start with the turnout in the European Parliamentary elections, we find the highest - but also a declining - turnout among the farmers, while un-skilled workers persistently have the lowest turnout at these elections. It was only in 1999 that the retired had a turnout as low as the un-skilled workers. Increasing turnout among higher white-collar people in both the public and the private sector resulted in a higher turnout than the farmers at the European election in 1994 and A broader frame of reference and a greater interest in politics, which is widespread among the welleducated and higher social classes, seems to be associated with a European orientation to politics. << See, figure 4 >> In the local elections the farmers always have the highest turnout according to our analysis. Here we find the next highest turnout among the urban self-employed. But the main difference between local and European elections is that workers, in particular the un-skilled workers, have a fairly high turnout, and white collar people, both in the public and in the private sector, have a lower turnout than the workers. In the local elections high education and high social status seems to be less important than a preoccupation with more specific issues in the local community. << See, figure 5 >> The highest turnout in the Danish referendums on the European Union is found among senior white-collar employees in the public and private sectors, whereas the lowest turnout is found among 2

4 the un-skilled workers and the retired. Farmers have relatively lower turnout in referendums than in European and local elections. Here social class seems to be more important than urbanisation. << See, figure 6 >> The estimates of turnout at national parliamentary elections indicate that the difference in turnout between the different occupational groups is smaller than at the European Parliament elections. However, both farmers and higher white-collar employees in the public and the private sector turn out more than other social groups, whereas un-skilled workers and in particular retired people turn out to a lesser extent. Thus, national elections seem to be able to mobilise voters with a more general political orientation among the higher social classes and voters with more specific interests prevalent among the farmers. However, national election campaigns seem to suppress electoral participation among those who have fewer resources for involving themselves in political issues more generally or on the basis of some specific interests. A factor analysis reveals two geographical dimensions in turnout in Danish elections. On this basis we may not only be able to explain the geographical variation in the turnout at various levels of government, but also the level of turnout in these elections. As indicated in figure 7 we hypothesise that the first dimension may be called termed local orientation, because it is highly correlated with turnout at local elections and has high values in small rural communities. The second dimension may be termed European orientation, because it is highly correlated with turnout at European elections and referendums and has high values in areas with prominence of voters with high education and high-ranking occupations. Figure 7 further shows that the Danish Parliament elections have relative high loadings on both of these dimensions. The overall turnout at each election is closely related with the product of local and European orientation. From this relation it is possible to compute what we call a mobilization curves for expected turnout at the level of 70, 80, and 90 percent as shown in figure 7. Thus, the graph is divided in sections with expected turnout below 70, between 70 and 80 etc. This division shows that the position of the Danish national elections combines relatively high degrees of both local and European orientations, which results in turnout in the range from 80 to 90 percent. European elections or local elections on their own attract voters with mainly one kind of orientation, which results in lower expected turnout. 3

5 The conclusion that may be drawn from this evidence is that any election must combine both kinds of orientations to produce a high level of turnout, that is, both a local and specific orientation and a general and European or cosmopolitan orientation. We have in this presentation dealt with individual facilitation and mobilisation in order to explain the differences in turnout between elections at different levels of government in Denmark. This does not mean that we find institutional arrangements without importance an example of an institution that might contribute to the low turnout at European Parliamentary elections is the tradition of having the European election on a weekday, usually a Thursday, and not counting the votes until the following Sunday to be published at the same time as the results from the other European Union countries. This practice has undoubtedly contributed to the already low public interest in these elections. As this rule has been changed the Danes shall vote on a Sunday in June 2004, we expect a higher turnout in the forthcoming European Parliament Elections. The effect of this change should not, however, be overvalued. More important is that candidates during the campaign and incumbent Members of the European Parliament during their election period demonstrate to the voters that the work in the European Parliament has an impact on the daily life of the voters. To unite an over-all, European orientation and a local, more specific, orientation seems to be necessary to raise interest in and knowledge about the European Parliament - and in the end to increase turnout. 4

The Folketing Election 2015: Who and How? Rune Stubager, PhD, Professor, Department of Political Science

The Folketing Election 2015: Who and How?, PhD, Professor, Department of Political Science Slide 1 Topics The basics: The Danish constitution Democracy a la Denmark The political parties Old parties New(er)