It s Too Soon To Tell : Understanding the 2016 U.S. Presidential Race And Its Consequences

Transcription

1 It s Too Soon To Tell : Understanding the 2016 U.S. Presidential Race And Its Consequences Trevor W. Harrison, University of Lethbridge A Paper Prepared for the 11 th International Conference on Sociology, Athens, Greece, May 1-4, 2017

2 Three Candidates: Who Would Win? Hillary Clinton Donald Trump

3 America s Two Choices Conservative Republicans vs. Liberal Democrats Variations on liberalism (George Grant) Both have respective tribes But both similarly have supported neo-liberal globalization and U.S. military operations abroad; and have been supportive of finance and corporate capitalism at home

4 America s Media Landscape and Talk Radio A North American phenomenon About feeling; argutainment Hotbed of conspiracy talk Very influential

5 Table 1: Voter Choice by Race, Gender, and Religion Trump Clinton White Voters Black Voters 8 88 Hispanic Voters Men Women White Men White Women Black Men Black Women 6 94 Latino Men Latino Women Protestant Catholic White Evangelical or Born Again 81 16

6 Table 2: Voter Choice by Income, Education, and Place of Residence Trump Clinton <$30, $30,000-49, $50,000-99, $100, , $200, , >$250, <High School Some College College Graduate Post-Graduate Urban Suburban Rural 62 34

7 Nate Silver s Analysis (2016) High-education, medium-income white countries shifted to Clinton High-income, medium-education white counties shifted to Trump Highly educated majority-minority counties shifted toward Clinton Low educated majority-minority counties shifted toward Trump

8 Exceptionalism and the American Dream American revolution; manifest destiny John Locke s land of individual opportunity Both myths have largely collapsed Loss of identity in a changing world

9 Inequality in the U.S. Leonhardt (2016) notes that, for an American born in 1940, the chance of making more money than one s parents stood at 92 percent. For 1950, the figure still stood at 79 percent, but in the decades after steadily declined. Those born in 1980 have only a 50 percent chance of making more money than one s parents. Edsall (2016) notes that, Adjusted for inflation, the average hourly wage [for Americans] increased $1.49 from 1964 to 2014.

10 Neo-Liberal Globalization General Motors in the 1950s For Polanyi: laissez-faire markets/rapid change social and political disorder countermovements (The Great Transformation) Discontent throughout much of the western world (including Greece) Brexit and the American election

11 Possibilities to Come Much we do not know about the election and will perhaps never know Outcomes? Democrats regain Congress? U.S. retreat internationally? The economy? Impeachment or resignation? Neo-liberal globalization in retreat or retrenchment?

12 Selected References Cohen, Roger Trump s Weimar America. New York Times, December 14. Edelman, Richard Beyond the grand illusion. Executive Summary of the 2016 Edelman Trust Barometer. Trust-Barometer-Executive-Summary Edison Research National Election Poll. Edsall, Thomas Why Trump Now? New York Times, March 1. Leonhardt, David The American Dream, quantified at last. New York Times, December 8. Polanyi, Karl The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time. Originally published Boston: Beacon Press. Saurette, Paul, and Shane Gunster Ears wide shut: Epistemological populism, argutainment and Canadian conservative talk radio. Canadian Journal of Political Science 44: Silver, Nate. 2016a. The mythology of Trump s working class support. 538, May 3. Silver, Nate. 2016b. Education, not income, predicted who would vote for Trump. 538, November 22.

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