Issues vs. the Horse Race

Transcription

1 The Final Hours: Issues vs. the Horse Race Presidential Campaign Watch November 3 rd, Is the economy still the key issue of the campaign? - How are the different networks covering the candidates? - What can we expect on election day? Basis of analysis: a total of 73,904 statements on Obama and McCain on ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs January 1 st to November 2 nd 2008 Roland Schatz r.schatz@mediatenor.com

2 Summary/Introduction With the election just one day away, both candidates are making their final pitches, both to the slim margin of voters who say they remain undecided and core supporters in efforts to get out the vote and recruit volunteers on election day. With early voting hugely popular this year and generating long lines, questions about poll access and how high turnout will effect the results remain. Who is leading?...p5 McCain: From Establishment to Underdog ( p5 ) Slant-o-meter The Economy...p10 Will changing coverage tone impact the election? What next?... p9 What is the next course of action needed to win media approval?

3 Political protagonist in ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox News Visibility and tone of coverage, 11/2008 Republican party faces sharp negatives Obama, Barack McCain, John S. Bush, George W. Palin, Sarah Republican Party Democrat Party Biden, Joe Kerry, John Clinton, Hillary Cheney, Richard 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Share of coverage Obama, Barack McCain, John S. Bush, George W. Palin, Sarah Republican Party Democrat Party Biden, Joe Kerry, John Clinton, Hillary Cheney, Richard 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% negative no clear rating positive With Obama ahead slightly in polls, the media is looking at the health of the Republican party, both in national and state races. Coverage focuses on the future of the party and how it will recover from the current administration's low approval ratings. Basis: a total of 453 statements by or on political protagonists in ABC, CBS and NBC and Fox news programs, 11/1-11/02/2008

4 Candidate coverage in ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox News McCain and Obama: Coverage most salient issues, 11/2008 It's all about the horse race now Campaign Campaign Horserace Public Appearance Policy Personality Policy Public Appearance Horserace Other Personality negative no clear rating positive negative no clear rating positive With record rates of early voting participation and many voters having to wait hours at the polls, media coverage is now focused on the race to the finish line for both candidates with policy issues receiving little attention. Basis: a total of 157 / 173 statements in ABC, CBS and NBC and Fox news programs, 11/1-11/02/2008

5 Who is leading? ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 10/20-11/02/2008 Slant-O-Meter : Who s rated better? Tone of coverage compared for Obama and McCain McCain better rated Obama better rated Economy in general Tax policy Health care Iraq* Foreign policy, other Leadership Personality Polls/predictions -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% McCain better / Obama worse (%) Obama better / McCain worse 100%: all statements (positive + negative + no clear rating) *low coverage on these topics In the final days of the campaign, McCain has regained a slight advantage on the critical issue of the economy. On issues, Obama only leads on healthcare. Despite this, he continues to receive a large share of positive statements on polls and predictions. Basis: a total of 5,070 statements by or on Obama and McCain in ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox news programs, 10/20-11/02/2008

6 Obama s top 5 topics ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 10/20-11/02/2008 Obama faces negatives on taxes and economy Top 5 topics: share of coverage Tone of coverage Campaigning Cam paigning Tax policy Tax policy Econom y in general Economy in general Polls Polls Voters potential Voters potential 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 100%: all statements by or on Obama 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% negative positive missing to 100%: no clear rating Despite positive ratings on Obama's potential performance in the vote, he is receiving a high share of negative statements on taxes, a consistently problematic issue for him. Even on the economy, where he has had past success, negatives have surged. Basis: all statements by or on Obama in ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 10/20-11/02/2008

7 McCain s top 5 topics ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 10/20-11/02/2008 McCain rated negatively on all top topics Top 5 topics: share of coverage Tone of coverage Cam paigning Cam paigning Tax policy Tax policy Polls Polls Campaign strategy Campaign strategy Voters potential Voters potential 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 100%: all statements by or on Obama 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% negative positive missing to 100%: no clear rating Yet McCain faces more negative ratings than positive ones on all five top topics. Most of these relate to campaign strategy and outcome, but he also faces negatives on taxation, a topic he has used to attack Obama with some success. Basis: all statements by or on McCain in ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 10/20-11/02/2008

8 Who is leading? ABC, NBC, CBS and FOX candidate coverage, 10 / 2-11/02/2008: tone of coverage by days Obama has edge going into election day 80% Media trend Obama ahead Gallup poll 12% 60% 9% 40% 6% 20% 3% 0% 0% -20% -40% McCain ahead 10/2 10/6 10/10 10/14 10/18 10/22 10/4 10/8 10/12 10/16 10/20 10/24 TV Tone Poll: McCain leads Poll: Obama leads ( nationwide (Poll: Gallup Poll daily tracking three-day rolling average. n = approx. 2,500 registers voters 10/26 10/28 10/30 11/01-3% -6% Obama has the edge in both the polls and the media trend going into election day. While Obama's advantage in the media trend has narrowed in the last week, the McCain campaign seems to have run out of time to capitalize on it. Basis: all statements by or on Obama and McCain in ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 10/2-11/02/2008

9 Who is leading? 10/20-11/02/2008: tone of coverage by media outlets Obama rated better by all four networks Tone of Obama coverage Tone of McCain coverage NBC new s NBC new s ABC new s ABC new s CBS new s CBS new s FOX New s (Hum e) FOX News (Hume) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% negative positive missing to 100%: no clear rating Obama received better ratings that McCain on all four networks analyzed, largely because of positive coverage relating to polls and election predictions. That said, Fox News still rated Obama more negatively than positively, the only network to do so. Basis: all statements by or on Obama and McCain in ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox evening news programs 10/20-11/02/2008

10 Focus on economy - What effect has the economy had? Is the economy still the issue that will decide the race? With economic coverage becoming less bleak and the price of gasoline dropping, the level of panic over America's economy has begun to subside in the media. Even so, many voters are still concerned about jobs, wages and inflation, meaning that the economy is still a big factor in voting decisions. While McCain's new edge on economic issues is definitely an advantage, it may prove too slight and to have come too late in the race to make a difference.

11 Focus on economic policy ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 10/20-11/02/2008 No clear winner on the economy Tone of coverage of economic issues John McCain Barack Obama 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% negative positive missing to 100%: no clear rating Much as been made of the economy as critical to the outcome of the election. The candidates have both received criticism on the topic, implying voters are dissatisfied with the status quo while not being convinced either candidate can bring change. Basis: all statements by or on Obama or McCain in ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 10/20-11/02/2008

12 Focus on economy ABC, NBC and CBS coverage about the economy, 7/1/ /02/2008 Coverage of the economy more positive 35% 30% 25% Evaluation of the economic development -20% -30% -40% 100% TV News: Evaluation of the economic development 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% share of reports about the economy on ABC, NBC and CBS news TV news: share trend -50% -60% -70% -80% -90% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% negative reports no clear rating positive reports With some stabilization in the stock markets and a lack of further high profile bank failures, moving into November the tone of economy coverage has become less negative and also a smaller share of the news broadcasts. Basis: a total of 26,667 stories on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 7/1/ /02/2008

13 The economy in the media: Fox vs. ABC, CBS and NBC Tone of coverage 10/1/ /02/2008 Economic perceptions still depend on media choices Brit Hume 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% % negative no clear rating positive negative no clear rating positive The discrepancy in the tone of economic coverage remains as November begins, with significantly less negative ratings on Fox News than on the three broadcast networks. However, this gap in tone is smaller than it's been in some time. Basis: 3,112 / 1,034 reports

14 Focus on tax policy ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 10/20-11/02/2008 Tax policy still Obama's biggest problem Tone of coverage of tax policy John McCain Barack Obama 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% negative positive missing to 100%: no clear rating McCain has continued to attack Obama on tax issues, utilizing Joe the Plumber to put a human face on the complex issue. Despite these attacks, McCain is also rated negatively on taxation, although much less so than Obama, giving him an advantage. Basis: all statements by or on Obama or McCain in ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 10/20-11/02/2008

15 Focus on polls and predictions ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 10/20-11/02/2008 Poll coverage strongly favor Obama Tone of coverage regarding polls and predictions John McCain Barack Obama 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% negative positive missing to 100%: no clear rating Poll coverage continues to favor Obama strongly. But despite a high share of negative statements for McCain, the media hasn't given the election to Obama yet, noting that many polls have narrowed and that this election is too unusual to predict. Basis: all statements by or on Obama or McCain in ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 10/20-11/02/2008

16 - What s Next? What will be the outcome of this historic election season? We predict that the election outcome will be closer than many are currently predicting, and that polling numbers may not accurately reflect voter intentions. Obama should focus on get out the vote efforts. McCain should reiterate his experience to capture voters with last minute doubts.

17 METHODOLOGY For both TV and print, we analyse the entirety of the content, statement by statement, with human coders. This allows us to then look at every statement made about any issue, company or politician amongst others, and quantify the aggregate picture. This means we can look at how the coverage of any candidate, on any topic, looks like when one puts together all the sources. We get media because we take the broad approach, allowing or customers to see beyond demographics, at the broadest of levels, or down to the most minute details. We can just as easily find out the aggregate image of Barack Obama as we can the evolving biases of a particular journalist over the multi year span of his or her career.