Alan Stoga Senior Associate at Kissinger Associates. United States presidential elections 2016 Post debates Surveys Perspectives
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1 Alan Stoga Senior Associate at Kissinger Associates United States presidential elections 2016 Post debates Surveys Perspectives
2 With choices like these... Alan Stoga October, 2016
3 If you are a betting man Source: Iowa Electronics Markets CLINTON CLINTON 80 TRUMP TRUMP 20
4 Source: Armada Sept Voters feel frustrated, afraid and disenfranchised Two thirds of Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction, that life in America is changing for the worse, and that the country is in a state of decline More than half say that they are worse off than their parents were and that their children will be worse off than they are Three-quarters believe their values are under attack 85% say that political leaders protect their power and perks rather than do what is right for voters Only 1 in 5 voters say they trust government
5
6 White Americans are dying before their time Source: Princeton University
7 America, which would you prefer? 23% A factory owned by a Chinese company that employed 2,000 workers 9% Not sure 68% A factory owned by an American company that employed 1,000 workers Source: Bloomberg Poll, March 2016
8 Americans believe the system is rigged Q. Who has won since the recession? Gained Lost Banks 64% 13% Big business Workers 9 70 Managers/tech People like you Recent immigrants Two-thirds of voters say they want radical change
9 Voters don t like their choices One in three say Clinton would be a good or great president One in four say Trump would be good or great president
10 Why Donald Trump? Make America Great AGAIN resonates with voters who think they are worse off today and tomorrow Many white, non-hispanics (76% of voters) feel disenfranchised and fearful Trump s language: great, beautiful, winners Perception of Trump as powerful, successful outsider willing and able to stand up to system perceived to be rigged Demonstrated ability to control news cycle Comfortable in his own skin Enthusiastically politically incorrect Americans love celebrities!
11 Are there enough white voters to elect Trump? Source: Washington Post 5/31/16
12 Clinton has consistently led the national polls CLINTON 43.4% 41.4% TRUMP Source: Huffington Post
13 What matters is the Electoral College CLINTON TOSS UP TRUMP Source: Real Clear Politics
14 Two scenarios: Obama Redux vs. White Surge CLINTON wins! ELECTORAL COLLEGE 332 POPULAR VOTE 52% TRUMP wins! ELECTORAL COLLEGE 276 POPULAR VOTE 50% CLINTON wins by replicating Obama s coalition TRUMP wins by increasing non-college educated white turnout to 73% (57% in 2012) and receiving 66% of their votes (62% in 2012)
15 What might move voters? Debates Trump continues being outrageous Clinton political baggage including Foundation come back into focus Obama s activism shifts dynamics to Obama 3 Focus moves from personalities to issues like Supreme Court Outside factors: Russians in elections Russians in Ukraine Terrorism TRUMP CLINTON??
16 It matters who wins and how Narrow Clinton victory Narrow Trump victory Continued intense partisanship Deep fissures in both parties Limited policy progress Disrespect for politics increases Dramatic policy changes Democrats move further left Political environment worsens Clinton landslide Partisan gap narrows Republicans seek new identity Space for rational policies
17 Trump distilled Borders define countries Immigration policy is broken National interests should prevail over universal interests Entrepreneurship and incentives drive growth Decentralization matters Politically correct speech obscures truth Identity politics must be repudiated
18 CLINTON Path to citizenship Build infrastructure Income tax surcharge, exit tax, targeted incentives Expand health care coverage, increase minimum wage, active federal intervention Embedded in post war foreign policy consensus At best, fair trader What would they do? TRUMP Tighten border controls Build infrastructure Lower rates and simplify tax code Social policy left to states De-regulate where possible Increase military spending US exceptionalism and America First Anti-free trade agreements
19 Guessing the consequences is probably a fool s errand, but GDP growth (Q4/Q4) Fed Funds rate Source: Nomura Securities 10/4/16
20 The only sure prediction.
21 Alan Stoga Senior Associate at Kissinger Associates United States presidential elections 2016 Post debates Surveys Perspectives Q/A Session
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