GOING ALONE UK TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION - AN EXPAT SAVINGS TEAM UPDATE. Going alone - UK to leave the European Union
|
|
- Grant Miller
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 GOING ALONE UK TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION - 1
2 GOING ALONE UK TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION - Introduction 3 More questions than answers 4 What happened / Market reaction 5 Outlook 6 Politics is a growing factor 7 Disclaimer The value of investments, and the income derived from them, can go down as well as up and you can get back less than you originally invested. This article is not advice to invest, or to use any of our services The content of this guide is copyright protected and nothing may be copied out of this guide without credit and a link back to 2
3 Introduction Following an intense, often messy and in parts tragic campaign, the UK has voted to leave the European Union. Risk assets and the currency have reacted negatively and it now seems we ll enter an extended period of uncertainty both for the UK and the European Union (EU) as the details of the exit are worked out. In the grand scheme of things, the near-term economic impact is likely to be limited, but there is a risk that the shock of the result triggers wider pent-up concerns around more substantive factors. After months of discussion, intense campaigning and tinged by the tragic death of MP Jo Cox, the British people have gone to the polls for the first time in more than 40 years to decide on the nation s future in Europe. With a vote of 52% the electorate has instructed the Government to begin the process of negotiating an exit from the EU. With this widely held to be a one-way path, there is every reason to think this process will be protracted and difficult. On purely economic grounds, many will want as orderly and amicable a process as possible. However, with a number of polls on the continent showing increasing dissatisfaction with the EU and growing separatist sentiment, there is a very strong risk that the politics overrides the economic and investment case. In such a scenario, the incentive for EU politicians would seem to be to make any exit as painful as possible to quell domestic factions which could lead to further disintegration of the trading bloc. Talk to our team Get in touch for help and advice: enquiry@expatsavingsteam.com 3
4 More questions than answers UK voters have spoken and, contrary to the guidance of most of the political class, have voted to leave the European Union. This should now trigger a formal exit process, but given the constitutional challenges, lack of precedent and relatively close result, this will not be straightforward. The government may choose to delay formal notification until the Conservative party leadership situation is resolved and until its policy ducks are in a row. There is even a chance that the UK could remain in the EU the referendum is not legally binding and Parliament must vote to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act. Also, despite their rhetoric in the run up to the vote, European leaders may well explore new ways to keep the UK in the EU. Either way, following initial disruption to financial markets, there will be a period of reflection as all parties come to terms with the result. It should be remembered that until it secedes, the UK is a member of the EU and will continue to benefit from the single market while there will be uncertainty, the full economic impact of this vote will not be felt for some time. In the meantime, political uncertainties, particularly now that David Cameron has indicated that he will resign as prime minister, will continue to impact on financial markets. The full economic impact of this vote will not be felt for some time 4
5 What happened Whilst polling data had shown for some time that the result would be close, a shift in favour of the Remain camp in the last few days meant many were caught by surprise by final result, reflected in the market reaction. At the same time, although betting odds had been consistently tilted heavily towards a Remain vote throughout the campaign (last seen ranging between Market reaction 70-80% implied probability), further reports from the bookies had raised questions over the predictive ability of these odds given the unconventional betting patterns. With a strong turnout of 72% of the electorate, despite the fairly close result, it does seem clear that a strong mandate has been handed to the government. The initial market reaction has been negative after sentiment in the days preceding the referendum itself seemed to have shifted to favour a Remain vote. With a strong turnout of 72% of the electorate,despite the fairly close result, it does seem clear that a strong mandate has been handed to the government. The pressure valve that is the currency has seen sterling fall particularly sharply, touching levels not seen since 1985, while global equity markets are deeply into negative territory. Whilst market swings witnessed in the run up to the election had more to do with investors trying to second guess one another than true market impact, the prospect of protracted uncertainty across the UK and Europe is likely to keep volatility elevated. Following the immediate shock to UK equities there is scope for differentiation within the market large-cap stocks, which tend to be multi-nationals, could outperform both due to their relative lack of domestic economic exposure and the ability to repatriate overseas earnings at a favourable exchange rate. On the flipside, mid- and small-sized companies are likely to face more pressure, being more tapped in to the UK economy. Despite the current turbulence in markets, we don t believe the economic predictions from either campaign had any real validity and, despite an expectation for a short-term GDP hit, the underlying economic impact is likely to be limited in the grand scheme of things. With little fundamental basis to work on, following the initial impact, markets could stabilise somewhat, though the risk remains that the result is a trigger event that causes renewed investor worry about more substantive factors. As always, it is worth remembering that long-term investment returns are primarily driven by the topdown impact of global macroeconomic conditions, and the bottom-up factors of enterprise and innovation at individual investee companies. Talk to our team - Get in touch for help and advice: enquiry@expatsavingsteam.com 5
6 Outlook Economists are notoriously incapable of forecasting the path of future growth even when operating in a steady state environment of known rules and a reasonably clear policy. Making bold claims about the long term risks or benefits of Brexit when the terms of any exit are at present unknowable smacks of little more than self-serving rhetoric. We would therefore discount many of the more sensationalist claims emanating from either camp, preferring to focus on what we know or can reasonably expect to happen. The economic impact of the UK leaving the EU is effectively unknowable, but in the grand scheme of things we expect the impact to be relatively limited economies and their agents will adapt, and the shock of the result will dissipate over time. Although uncertainty will remain, with the referendum complete we expect markets to get back to focusing on more substantive issues, which we have been continuing to monitor carefully even while much attention has been temporarily diverted. Perhaps one of the major investment concerns from the Leave vote is the risk it becomes a trigger for pent-up concerns over some of these. At the top of the list is how the US Federal Reserve manages US interest rates. We think the Fed has created a no-win scenario for itself, as its preferred measures of inflation and employment are approaching its targets just as profitability at US corporations seems to be coming under pressure. It now faces the risk of either accelerating the onset of recession by hiking too quickly, or letting an economic malaise take hold without the traditional re-boot mechanism of cutting interest rates. A less probable, at least in the near term, but higher-impact risk is a disorderly unwind of the debt bubble that has been fuelling Chinese growth for the last decade. Sharp but brief falls in global equity markets last summer and again at the start of this year provided a taster of what could happen if China continues to play fast and loose with its capital allocation. Against these concerns, we continue to see pockets of opportunity with policy stimulus continuing to be a key driver of markets in the near term. Talk to our team Get in touch for help and advice: enquiry@expatsavingsteam.com 6
7 Politics is a growing factor In closing, one key aspect of the EU referendum worth holding on to is the growing impact politics will play in the formulation of macroeconomic policy-making. Globally we are seeing antiestablishment rhetoric growing as extraordinary monetary policy drives an increasing sense of social inequality. Asset price inflation has materially exceeded wage growth for a prolonged period, giving rise to the perception that policy is being set for the benefit of the few at the expense of the many. This in turn is manifesting in antiestablishment politics, evidenced by the successes of Syriza, a far left party, and Golden Dawn, a far right party, in Greece as well as the rise of Donald Trump in the US and Jeremy Corbyn in the UK - regardless of your views of Mr Corbyn, I think most would agree he is decidedly not establishment. Not only is political instability likely to drive volatility in markets, there are also worrying signs of a growing appetite for government interference in the actions of nominally independent Central banks, just as the unconventional monetary policy experiments extend further into the unknown. Uncertainty around how the UK actually leaves the EU and on what terms will remain for the foreseeable future, but is likely to fade into more of a background process. In the meantime, there are more significant factors to consider that are likely to have broader ramifications on globally-diversified portfolios. Uncertainty around how the UK actually leaves the EU and on what terms will remain for the foreseeable future 7
A View On Brexit From The Expat Savings Team A View On Brexit FROM THE EXPAT SAVINGS TEAM A VIEW ON BREXIT
A View On Brexit FROM THE EXPAT SAVINGS TEAM 1 A View On Brexit From The Expat Savings Team Summary of Key issues 2 Our Thoughts on Brexit 5 Conclusions 6 2016 The content of this guide is copyright protected
UNCERTAINTY The Market Hates This Word
UNCERTAINTY The Market Hates This Word After Britain s vote to leave the European Union on June 24 th, opinions about the future ranged from this being as significant as the 2008 financial crisis to nothing
CIO Markets Report. Key Observations Implications Markets Charts. Stephen Sexauer, CIO. CIO Markets Report
Key Observations Implications Markets Charts Key Observations and Implications 1. 2017 Eurozone Votes Loom. There are three key Eurozone elections in 2017: The Netherlands, France, and Germany. Table 1
The EU Membership Referendum: Bigger Than Brexit June 23, 2016
Dear Partners, In our Q4 2015 Capital Markets Update, we identified political polarization in Europe as a key risk coming into 2016. On February 20 th of this year, UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced
A Political Economy to Examine Brexit
MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive A Political Economy to Examine Brexit Kui-Wai Li 29 September 2016 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74172/ MPRA Paper No. 74172, posted 1 October 2016 15:54
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. Winston Churchill.
RETIREMENT PLAN SOLUTIONS PRIVATE WEALTH SOLUTIONS INSTITUTIONAL SOLUTIONS Your information connection The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. Winston
Weekly Geopolitical Report
Weekly Geopolitical Report By Kaisa Stucke, CFA February 29, 2016 Brexit The U.K. joined the European Common Market, what is now known as the EU, in 1973. In 1992, the Maastricht Treaty formally created
BREXIT: WHAT HAPPENED? WHY? WHAT NEXT?
BREXIT: WHAT HAPPENED? WHY? WHAT NEXT? By Richard Peel, published 22.08.16 On 23 June 2016, the people of the United Kingdom voted in a referendum. The question each voter had to answer was: Should the
Influencing Expectations in the Conduct of Monetary Policy
Influencing Expectations in the Conduct of Monetary Policy 2014 Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference: Monetary Policy in a Post-Financial Crisis Era Tokyo, Japan May 28,
Another One Bites the Dust
DEC 19 2016 Another One Bites the Dust J. Patrick Bradley» Italy Ties Its Future to Ill-Fated Vote First there was Brexit, creating a blowback in the financial and currency markets. British Prime Minister
Change versus more of the same: On-going panel of target voting groups provides path for Democrats in 2018
Date: November 2, 2017 To: Page Gardner, Women s Voices Women Vote Action Fund From: Stan Greenberg, Greenberg Research Nancy Zdunkewicz, Change versus more of the same: On-going panel of target voting
Post Referendum Scenarios. The impact of the UK referendum on EU membership
Post Referendum Scenarios The impact of the UK referendum on EU membership Risk Assessment Issues Brexit: How We Got Here In the build-up to the UK General Election of 2015, Prime Minister David Cameron
UK Election Results and Economic Prospects. By Tony Brown 21 July 2017
UK Election Results and Economic Prospects By Tony Brown 21 July 2017 This briefing note summarises recent developments in the UK and presents a snapshot of the British political and economic state of
Remittances and the Macroeconomic Impact of the Global Economic Crisis in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Volume 8, No. 4 (2010), pp. 3-9 Central Asia-Caucasus
Lazard Insights. Italian Constitutional Referendum Basics for Investors. Summary. What Is the Purpose of Italy s Constitutional Referendum?
Lazard Insights Italian Constitutional Referendum Basics for Investors Giuseppe Ricotta, CFA, FRM, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Analyst Summary We believe needs structural reforms to address the country
What happens next? Legal Consequences of Brexit FABIAN AMTENBRINK ANASTASIA KARATZIA RENÉ REPASI
REFERENDUM IN THE UNITED KINGDOM TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION European Research Centre for Economic and Financial Governance euro-cefg.eu What happens next? Legal Consequences of Brexit FABIAN AMTENBRINK
Looking Forward Q4 2018
Looking Forward Q4 2018 Market Implications of Potential Presidential Impeachment While we view the potential impeachment of President Trump as unlikely at this time, the odds may have marginally increased
Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union, by Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin and Paul Whiteley
Dorling, D. (2017) Review of Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union, by Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, Paul Whiteley. Times Higher, May 4th, https://www.timeshighereducation.com/books/review-brexit-harold-d-clarke-matthewgoodwin-and-paul-whiteley-cambridge-university-press
The outlook for EU migration if the UK remains subject to the free movement of people
The outlook for EU migration if the UK remains subject to the free movement of people European Union: MW 416 Summary 1. Should the UK remain subject to free movement rules after Brexit as a member of the
Information note on the UK referendum decision and its potential implications
Information note on the UK referendum decision and its potential implications The AIRE Centre is a specialist legal charity. We use the power of European law to protect your human rights. On the 23rd June
US Watch. The 2018 Midterms Three scenarios. Group Economics Financial Markets Research. Insights.abnamro.nl/en. 28 September 2018
US Watch Group Economics Financial Markets Research 28 September 218 The 218 Midterms Three scenarios Bill Diviney Senior Economist Tel: +31 2 343 5612 bill.diviney@nl.abnamro.com Our base case is that
Global Economic Perspective: October
Global Economic Perspective: October October 19, 2017 by Fixed Income Group of Franklin Templeton Investments Drivers of Solid US Economic Expansion Remain in Place Recent data have supported our view
IHS Outlook: Global Supply Chain Trends and Threats
SUPPLY CHAIN ECONOMICS IHS Outlook: Global Supply Chain Trends and Threats By Chris G. Christopher, Jr., Director, U.S. Macroeconomics & Consumer Economics, IHS Markit Global trade and the many supply
Brexit Means Brexit But We Still Don t Know What It Means
Brexit Means Brexit But We Still Don t Know What It Means Jean-Philippe Bry Vice-President and Strategist Signature Global Asset Management March 20, 2019 Brexit means Brexit. British Prime Minister Theresa
This Expansion Looks Familiar
1 of 4 2/14/2007 8:28 AM February 13, 2007 This Expansion Looks Familiar By EDUARDO PORTER and JEREMY W. PETERS It is five years into an economic expansion and most Americans are still waiting for their
Government Briefing Note for Oireachtas Members on UK-EU Referendum
Government Briefing Note for Oireachtas Members on UK-EU Referendum Summary The process of defining a new UK-EU relationship has entered a new phase following the decision of the EU Heads of State or Government
Alan Stoga Senior Associate at Kissinger Associates. United States presidential elections 2016 Post debates Surveys Perspectives
Alan Stoga Senior Associate at Kissinger Associates United States presidential elections 2016 Post debates Surveys Perspectives With choices like these... Alan Stoga October, 2016 If you are a betting
European Tourism Trends & Prospects Executive Summary
European Tourism Trends & Prospects Executive Summary European tourism growth in 2018 European tourism demand remained on solid footing with a 6% upswing in international tourist arrivals in 2018 over
The Election and the Markets
November 2016 MARKET UPDATE The Election and the Markets "The basis of our political system is the right of the people to make and to alter their constitutions of government." George Washington George
Brazil: Low inflation and a longer easing cycle
Economic and Financial Analysis 15 March 2018 Article 15 March 2018 Global Economics Brazil: Low inflation and a longer easing cycle Recent data shows economic growth remains solid, but inflation has surprised
BBB3633 Malaysian Economics
BBB3633 Malaysian Economics Prepared by Dr Khairul Anuar L7: Globalisation and International Trade www.notes638.wordpress.com 1 Content 1. Introduction 2. Primary School 3. Secondary Education 4. Smart
What s Next For Europe as Merkel Is Reelected
What s Next For Europe as Merkel Is Reelected September 26, 2017 by David Zahn of Franklin Templeton Investments Angela Merkel s re-election as German Chancellor was very much expected, but the implications
Brexit - An Exit Story. Treasury Research & Strategy
Brexit - An Exit Story Treasury Research & Strategy 1 Key Highlights UK s exit from the European Union will be decided in a referendum that may be held as early as June 2016, should David Cameron fail
The fundamental factors behind the Brexit vote
The CAGE Background Briefing Series No 64, September 2017 The fundamental factors behind the Brexit vote Sascha O. Becker, Thiemo Fetzer, Dennis Novy In the Brexit referendum on 23 June 2016, the British
The post-brexit. fandango
The post-brexit fandango To leave the EU cleanly the UK must make sure that this path leads to unilateral free trade and not some halfhearted protectionist substitute, Patrick Minford argues In the referendum
EUROBAROMETER 71 PUBLIC OPINION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION SPRING
Standard Eurobarometer European Commission EUROBAROMETER 71 PUBLIC OPINION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION SPRING 2009 Standard Eurobarometer 71 / SPRING 2009 TNS Opinion & Social Standard Eurobarometer NATIONAL
Global Macro Strategy: Special Election Report
Global Investment Strategy Global Macro Strategy: Special Election Report February 10, 2016 Paul Christopher, CFA Head Global Market Strategist Craig Holke Global Research Analyst Analysis and outlook
THE ANDREW MARR SHOW, BBC1 9 TH SEPTEMBER 2018 FRANCES O GRADY, GENERAL SECRETARY OF THE TUC
1 THE ANDREW MARR SHOW, BBC1 9 TH SEPTEMBER 2018 FRANCES O GRADY, GENERAL SECRETARY OF THE TUC Andrew Marr (AM): Now, 150 years ago groups of trade unionists gathered in Manchester to form one single organisation
CONFIDENCE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY PREVAILS DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES
CONFIDENCE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY PREVAILS DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES MARKET INSIGHT BUSINESS SWEDEN, DECEMBER 15 2016 CONFIDENCE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY PREVAILS DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES The world economy continues
Uncertainties in Economics and Politics: What matters? And how will the real estate sector be impacted? Joseph E. Stiglitz Munich October 6, 2017
Uncertainties in Economics and Politics: What matters? And how will the real estate sector be impacted? Joseph E. Stiglitz Munich October 6, 2017 Unprecedented uncertainties Geo-political Rules based global
Vote that reverberates around world: Britain wants to leave European Union
Vote that reverberates around world: Britain wants to leave European Union By Associated Press, adapted by Newsela staff on 06.27.16 Word Count 952 Level 1190L Demonstrators opposing Britain's exit from
After the Brits Have Gone? Turning a Drama into A Crisis That Will Not Go to Waste.
After the Brits Have Gone? Turning a Drama into A Crisis That Will Not Go to Waste. Intereconomics Conference, Berlin 10/10/16 Mark Blyth Eastman Professor of Political Economy The Watson Institute for
Catalonia, a New State within Europe?
Catalonia, a New State within Europe? October 14, 2015 by Kaisa Stucke of Confluence Investment Management Catalonia, a New State within Europe? Catalonia, a new state within Europe is the slogan of the
CURRENT IMPASSE IN BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS AND FUTURE OUTLOOK
CURRENT IMPASSE IN BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS AND FUTURE OUTLOOK Ryuji Hiraishi Strategic Information & Research Dept. Mitsui & Co. Europe PLC BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS DEADLOCKED AS TIME RUNS OUT The negotiations
EU REFERENDUM Policy
EU REFERENDUM Policy Background to the debate and the potential impacts on real estate Contents Introduction 3 Background 3 The campaign 4 The process of leaving 5 The EU and UK real estate: potential
The 2016 U.S. elections
CIO View Special Stefan Kreuzkamp Chief Investment Officer The 2016 U.S. elections Our base case and risk scenarios Should investors care about political campaigns? As we argued in the CIO View Special
China s Response to the Global Slowdown: The Best Macro is Good Micro
China s Response to the Global Slowdown: The Best Macro is Good Micro By Nicholas Stern (Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank ) At the Global Economic Slowdown and China's Countermeasures
Investing & Geopolitics: Risks & Opportunities In 2017
October 2013 January 2017 Investing & Geopolitics: Risks & Opportunities In 2017 Marko Papic Senior Vice President Geopolitical Strategy Can Geopolitical Analysis Be Investment Relevant? Focus on the constraints
VENEZUELA: Oil, Inflation and Prospects for Long-Term Growth
VENEZUELA: Oil, Inflation and Prospects for Long-Term Growth Melody Chen and Maggie Gebhard 9 April 2007 BACKGROUND The economic history of Venezuela is unique not only among its neighbors, but also among
The real election and mandate Report on national post-election surveys
Date: November 13, 2012 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, and Campaign for America s Future Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Erica Seifert, Greenberg Quinlan
The Commonwealth Paper
1 10191 2 The Commonwealth Paper This piece is focussed on the idea of a hard-brexit, followed by the creation of a Commonwealth trading bloc, whilst maintaining trading relations with EU states under
The first eleven years of Finland's EU-membership
1 (7) Sinikka Salo 16 January 2006 Member of the Board The first eleven years of Finland's EU-membership Remarks by Ms Sinikka Salo in the Panel "The Austrian and Finnish EU-Presidencies: Positive Experiences
French Election Result: Macron Wins, But Can He Deliver?
French Election Result: Macron Wins, But Can He Deliver? May 8, 2017 by Philippe Brugere-Trelat, David Zahn, Dylan Ball, Emilie Esposito, Uwe Zoellner of Franklin Templeton Investments New President Will
The EU debate #1: Identity
The EU debate #1: Identity Q: Britain is a European nation. A: Geography has given Britain a shared cultural history with continental Europe. From the Roman Empire, to the Renaissance, and now through
Forecasting the 2016 EU Referendum with Big Data: Remain to win, in spite of Cameron
Forecasting the 2016 EU Referendum with Big Data: Remain to win, in spite of Cameron Ronald MacDonald, University of Glasgow and Xuxin Mao, UCL This report summarises predictions about the outcome of the
Fed Will 'Wait & Watch' Before Raising Interest Rates
Fed Will 'Wait & Watch' Before Raising Interest Rates January 16, 2019 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Powell Repeats: The Fed Can Be Patient On Rate Policy 2. No Talk of
Briefing: The EU referendum and housing associations
8 April 2016 Briefing: The EU referendum and housing associations Framing the debate, and posing the questions Summary of key points: This briefing seeks to enable housing associations to assess the significance
VOTE TO LEAVETHE EU. Brexit/Iceland Option
VOTE TO LEAVETHE EU Brexit/Iceland Option Iceland Option Page 1 If I asked any of you to tell me what our objective is in this fight, you would tell me that the answer is obvious: our objective is to win
Should Fiscal Policy be Set by Politicians?
Should Fiscal Policy be Set by Politicians? E. Maskin Harvard University Jean Monnet Lecture European Central Bank Frankfurt September 29, 2016 European Union an enormous success 2 European Union an enormous
Economic Aspects in National Independence Debates: The Cases of Scotland and Catalonia. Dr Krzysztof Winkler
Economic Aspects in National Independence Debates: The Cases of Scotland and Catalonia Dr Krzysztof Winkler Poznań 2016 1 Preface Taking responsibility for their own country is a dream for many nations
WORKSHOPS. Proceedings of OeNB Workshops. Recent Developments in the Baltic Countries What Are the Lessons for Southeastern Europe?
OESTERREICHISCHE NATIONALBANK EUROSYSTEM WORKSHOPS Proceedings of OeNB Workshops Recent Developments in the Baltic Countries What Are the Lessons for Southeastern Europe? March 23, 2009 Stability and Security.
DR LIAM FOX ANDREW MARR SHOW 18 TH DECEMBER, 2016
ANDREW MARR SHOW 18 TH DECEMBER, 2016 1 AM: A year ago I had you on the show and you announced that you were going to campaign to leave the EU and you were very clear about what that meant. You said no
Congress Spends Big To Avoid Government Shutdown
Congress Spends Big To Avoid Government Shutdown October 3, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. GALLUP Says Things Look Bad For GOP in November 2. Congress Quietly Passes Another Huge
HOT TOPIC Mature economies. From What If? to Then What? First insight into the Trump s presidency. November 15, 2016
HOT TOPIC Mature economies November 15, 2016 From What If? to Then What? First insight into the Trump s presidency Once again after the case of Brexit, our models signaled a plausible unexpected outcome
US Mid-Term Elections: Which Implications? November 2014
US Mid-Term Elections: Which Implications? November 214 PERSPECTIVES Paresh Upadhyaya Senior Vice President, Director of Currency Strategy, US Key Insights The Republican Party added to its majority in
Fall 2016 U S E L E C T I O N S T H E W I T C H I N G H O U R A P P R O A C H E S S A M S I V A R A J A N J.D., MBA, CFP (UK)
Fall 2016 S A M S I V A R A J A N J.D., MBA, CFP (UK) Managing Director, Head of Manulife Private Wealth U S E L E C T I O N S T H E W I T C H I N G H O U R A P P R O A C H E S Hallowe en is fast approaching
Brexit Essentials: Dispute resolution clauses
Brexit Essentials: Dispute resolution clauses In this briefing, we consider the potential impact of Brexit on contractual dispute resolution clauses. EU law underpins these clauses. When that law ceases
Research UK Hung parliament adds government risk premium to GBP
Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 June 2017 Hung parliament adds government risk premium to GBP Hung parliament but the Conservative Party seems likely to form a minority government backed
The Economy Today By Bradley Schiller READ ONLINE
The Economy Today By Bradley Schiller READ ONLINE Article 40 of the Spanish Constitution: 1. The public authorities shall promote favourable conditions for social and economic progress and for a more equitable
Afternoon Keynote Speech at Harvard University s 9th Annual African Development Conference
Afternoon Keynote Speech at Harvard University s 9th Annual African Development Conference Antoinette Monsio Sayeh Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Center for Global Development March 24, 2018 Opening Thank
Labour a Government in waiting?
PORTLAND 1 Labour a Government in waiting? Why business should engage with Labour Party policy 3 PORTLAND Contents INTRODUCTION 04 BY CHRIS HOGWOOD A GOVERNMENT IN WAITING? 06 AYESHA HAZARIKA 2 DIGITAL
International Employee Mobility after Brexit
International Employee Mobility after Brexit September 2016 Brussels / Dusseldorf / Hamburg / London / Manchester / Milan / Munich / Paris / Rome / Shanghai / Silicon Valley International Employee Mobility
Spain needs to reform its pensions system even at the cost of future cutbacks in other areas, warns the President of the ifo Institute
www.fbbva.es DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNICATION AND INSTITUTIONAL RELATIONS ANNOUNCEMENT Presentation of the EEAG Report What Now, With Whom, Where To The Future of the EU Spain needs to reform its pensions system
Speech given by Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England. At Salts Mills, Bradford, Yorkshire 13 June 2005
1 Speech given by Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England At Salts Mills, Bradford, Yorkshire 13 June 2005 All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/pages/speeches/default.aspx
IAMREC 2016 Foundational Preparatory Document for the IAMREC
IAMREC 2016 Foundational Preparatory Document for the IAMREC During the last months, the American continent is going through various political changes that have generated new debates and uncertainties
The Party Throws a Congress: China s Leadership Strengthens Control
The Party Throws a Congress: China s Leadership Strengthens Control OCTOBER 2017 Snapshot China s National Party Congress concluded this week with Xi Jinping retaining firm control, as expected. Economic
Voter Turnout to Be Record High in Midterms Implications
Voter Turnout to Be Record High in Midterms Implications October 31, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. 3Q Economy Grew Faster Than Expected at 3.5% GDP 2. Voter Turnout Set to Top 50-Year
SMART STRATEGIES TO INCREASE PROSPERITY AND LIMIT BRAIN DRAIN IN CENTRAL EUROPE 1
Summary of the Expert Conference: SMART STRATEGIES TO INCREASE PROSPERITY AND LIMIT BRAIN DRAIN IN CENTRAL EUROPE 1 6 November 2018 STATE OF PLAY AND CHALLENGES Citizens of new EU member states are increasingly
GCE AS 2 Student Guidance Government & Politics. Course Companion Unit AS 2: The British Political System. For first teaching from September 2008
GCE AS 2 Student Guidance Government & Politics Course Companion Unit AS 2: The British Political System For first teaching from September 2008 For first award of AS Level in Summer 2009 For first award
Venezuela: Summary Bond Terms
Venezuela: Summary Bond Terms Venezuela Bonds 12.75%, 2022 9.25%, 2027 9.25%, 2028 7%, 2038 Issuer Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela Currency USD Issue Date August 23, 2010 September 18, 1997 May 7, 2008
OUR GENERATION NEEDS YOUR GENERATION S HELP TO SAVE OUR FUTURE.
OUR GENERATION NEEDS YOUR GENERATION S HELP TO SAVE OUR FUTURE. 70% of 18-24 year olds voted to Remain in the EU referendum, with 1.5 million other young people unable to vote at the time. Now, as the
Britain, the EU & Tourism
Written evidence submitted by VisitBritain (IOB0027) Britain, the EU & Tourism About VisitBritain and VisitEngland Tourism is currently worth 126.9 billion to Britain s economy. It is Britain s third largest
A2 Economics. Enlargement Countries and the Euro. tutor2u Supporting Teachers: Inspiring Students. Economics Revision Focus: 2004
Supporting Teachers: Inspiring Students Economics Revision Focus: 2004 A2 Economics tutor2u (www.tutor2u.net) is the leading free online resource for Economics, Business Studies, ICT and Politics. Don
Brexit: Six Months Later. Karl Whelan University College Dublin AEA Meetings, Chicago January 6, 2017
Brexit: Six Months Later Karl Whelan University College Dublin AEA Meetings, Chicago January 6, 2017 Reasons for Brexit Vote Brexit Referendum followed Years of fiscal austerity. Flat GDP per capita for
ASEAN ECONOMIC BULLETIN January 2016
ASEAN ECONOMIC BULLETIN January 2016 HIGHLIGHTS Although 2016 started with heightened global uncertainty, it could be a better year for ASEAN s economy, equivalent to the world s 7 th largest. The IMF
1 TONY BLAIR ANDREW MARR SHOW, 29 TH MAY, 2016 TONY BLAIR
1 ANDREW MARR SHOW, 29 TH MAY, 2016 AM: I spoke to him a little earlier this morning and I began by asking him about the big story of the day, whether the current level of EU migration is sustainable.
Migration and Development Brief
Migration and Development Brief 9 Migration and Remittances Team Development Prospects Group, World Bank Revised Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009 2011: Remittances expected to fall by 5 to 8 percent in
ETUC Platform on the Future of Europe
ETUC Platform on the Future of Europe Resolution adopted at the Executive Committee of 26-27 October 2016 We, the European trade unions, want a European Union and a single market based on cooperation,
Housekeeping. Designated Opponents (link on syllabus) Committee chairs ( manage committee tab on LegSim) Pocket rules (for floor debates)
Housekeeping Designated Opponents (link on syllabus) Committee chairs ( manage committee tab on LegSim) Pocket rules (for floor debates) Coalition building Attract cosponsors? Persuade committees that
The unheard winning and bold economic agenda Findings from the Roosevelt Institute s Election night survey
Date: November 15, 2016 To: The Roosevelt Institute From: Stan Greenberg and Nancy Zdunkewicz, The unheard winning and bold economic agenda Findings from the Roosevelt Institute s Election night survey
China s meteoric rise over the past half century is one of the most striking examples of the impact of opening an economy up to global markets.
China s meteoric rise over the past half century is one of the most striking examples of the impact of opening an economy up to global markets. Over that period the country has undergone a shift from a
ANDREW MARR SHOW, 19 TH JUNE, 2016
1 I/V JEREMY CORBYN 09:23 AM: Good morning, Mr Corbyn, before we start you obviously knew Jo as a colleague. Any particular memories of her as a person? JC: Very passionate, very committed. Before she
The 2030 Most Likely Best Case Scenario
The 2030 Most Likely Best Case Scenario February 20, 2013 by Bill O'Grady Kaisa Stucke of Confluence Investment Management Two weeks ago we started looking at the 2030 alternative world development scenarios
Market Commentary June 2016
Brexit: Much ado about something The U.K. Referendum, on whether to stay in the European Union (EU), vote will occur on June 23. Market Impact: Greater long term uncertainty irrespective of the result,
COMMENTARY. Evidence and values: The UK migration debate PUBLISHED: 24/04/2013
COMMENTARY Evidence and values: The UK migration debate 2011-2013 PUBLISHED: 24/04/2013 www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk In the two years since the Migration Observatory was launched in March 2011, immigration
Ipsos MORI November 2016 Political Monitor
Ipsos MORI November 2016 Political Monitor Topline Results 15 November 2016 Fieldwork: 11 th 14 th November 2016 Technical Details Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,013 adults aged 18+
France. Political update
France Political update November 2016 1 Our initial assessment of the French economy included a look at the domestic political situation, in an attempt to determine the likely economic impact of the May
Much of Trump s Agenda Will Be Impossible to Achieve
Much of Trump s Agenda Will Be Impossible to Achieve PODCAST December 27, 2016 JR: Welcome to RiskHedge Radio. I m your host, Jonathon Roth. Today, I am joined by one of the world s pre-eminent demographers,
Brexit: The economic, political and financial fallout One more uncertainty in an already shaky global situation
Brexit: The economic, political and financial fallout One more uncertainty in an already shaky global situation June 27, 2016 The Brits June 23 vote to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union
TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF KOREAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: FROM AN INTELLECTUAL POINTS OF VIEW
TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF KOREAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: FROM AN INTELLECTUAL POINTS OF VIEW FANOWEDY SAMARA (Seoul, South Korea) Comment on fanowedy@gmail.com On this article, I will share you the key factors