A View On Brexit From The Expat Savings Team A View On Brexit FROM THE EXPAT SAVINGS TEAM A VIEW ON BREXIT

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Laureen Melton
5 years ago
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1 A View On Brexit FROM THE EXPAT SAVINGS TEAM 1

A View On Brexit From The Expat Savings Team Summary of Key issues 2 Our Thoughts on Brexit 5 Conclusions 6 2016 The content of this

2 A View On Brexit From The Expat Savings Team Summary of Key issues 2 Our Thoughts on Brexit 5 Conclusions The content of this guide is copyright protected and nothing may be copied out of this guide without credit and a link back to 2

Summary of Key issues Membership Fee Leaving the EU would result in an immediate cost saving to the Treasury. Last year the UK contributed around 13bn to the EU but received 4.

3 Summary of Key issues Membership Fee Leaving the EU would result in an immediate cost saving to the Treasury. Last year the UK contributed around 13bn to the EU but received 4.5bn back through farming subsidies and regional development investment. An additional 1.4bn is returned as grants to the private sector for a net contribution of 7.1bn. Talk to our team Get in touch for help and advice: enquiry@expatsavingsteam.com Trade The EU is a single market in which no tariffs are imposed on imports and exports between member states. More than 50% of all UK exports go to EU countries. Taking into account the additional benefit of bilateral trade agreements between the EU and other countries that also benefit Britain s exports, this figure rises to 62%. An exit from the EU would put unfettered trade access at risk, but remove large swathes of unpopular and restrictive bureaucracy that increase cost and restrict innovation. In addition Eurosceptics will rightly argue that the vast majority of small and mid-sized business do not directly trade with the EU but remain bound by excessive regulation. Last year the UK s net contribution was around 7.1bn. 3

Summary of Key issues Investment Inward investment slowed in the run up to the Scottish referendum, but bounced back after the outcome of the vote was known.

4 Summary of Key issues Investment Inward investment slowed in the run up to the Scottish referendum, but bounced back after the outcome of the vote was known. The protracted negotiation that can be expected to follow an exit vote suggests the investment hiatus for the UK could last for several years. Immigration Under EU law Britain cannot prevent anyone from a member state coming to live in the country. While Britons benefit from the same right, the result has been a huge increase in immigration into the UK largely from Eastern Europe. According to the office of national statistics nearly 950,000 Romanians, Bulgarians, Czechs and Poles have entered the country in comparison with less than 800,000 workers form Western Europe. Security Hand in hand with concerns over immigration are the growing tensions created by cross border security. Iain Duncan Smith s support for Brexit has been directly linked to the open door policy that allows unfettered access across the UK s border. While there is a very significant difference between the arguments for and against those seeking legitimate economic migration or political asylum and the threat posed by terrorist infiltration, the cross contamination of the two issues will be seen as a potential vote winner by the pro exit camp. Hand in hand with concerns over immigration are the growing tensions created by cross border security Talk to our team Get in touch for help and advice: enquiry@expatsavingsteam.com 4

5 Our Thoughts on Brexit What do you think the outcome will be? On balance we believe the outcome will be a narrow victory for the Remain. However the nature of the campaign and the relatively close nature of the outcome are unlikely to put the issue to rest. What would Brexit mean for the UK economy? While many commentators have focused on Sterling as the most likely casualty through this process, weakness during the first two months of the year allied to the monetary policy measures being pursued elsewhere suggest these fears may be overdone. While we would expect a short term hiatus on spending and investment plans ahead of the vote, this would clearly be a short term blip in the event of a vote to remain. An exit vote however would sustain this period of uncertainty through the two year negotiating period. Exit pursued by Mark Carney Estimates of the extent of the economic impact vary significantly, but are generally thought to be in the range of 0.5-2% reduction in GDP in the year after the vote to leave. In this event we would expect the Bank of England (BOE) under Mark Carney to do whatever is deemed necessary to maintain monetary and financial stability. In the medium term however, exit will pose a policy dilemma for the BOE. Weaker growth and declining FX rates will create potentially equal and opposite inflationary pressures requiring a policy balancing act. However, the relatively dovish positioning of the World s other major central banks gives scope for rate cuts or more Quantitative Easing (QE) should the uncertainty over negotiations become protracted. Talk to our team - Get in touch for help and advice: enquiry@expatsavingsteam.com 5

6 Conclusions Economists are notoriously incapable of forecasting the path of future growth even when operating in a steady state environment of known rules and a reasonably clear policy. Making bold claims about the long term risks or benefits of Brexit when the terms of any exit are at present unknowable smacks of little more than self-serving rhetoric. We would therefore discount many of the more sensationalist claims emanating from either camp, preferring to focus on what we know or can reasonably expect to happen. These are our key thoughts: We continue to believe that come June the UK will vote to remain within the EU Despite the closeness of the current polls the fear of change and the relative uncertainty over the path an exit would take will in all likelihood sway voters in favour of the Remain campaign Despite sterling weakness stock markets are generally assuming this outcome A deterioration in the standing of the Remain campaign in the polls leading up to the vote will therefore impact asset prices most notably Eurozone equity Talk to our team Get in touch for help and advice: Short-term domestic economic activity will be impacted though the outlook for the UK stock market is less clear cut With over 60% of FTSE 100 earnings generated outside the UK, the translation benefits of a weaker Sterling would represent a temporary boost to corporate earnings, helping to support dividends and even share buy backs Important information The value of investments, and the income derived from them, can go down as well as up and you can get back less than you originally invested. This is not a personal recommendation or advice to invest. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Different funds may carry varying levels of risk depending on the geographical region and industry sector(s) in which they invest. You should make yourself aware of these specific risks prior to investing. enquiry@expatsavingsteam.com 6

GOING ALONE UK TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION - AN EXPAT SAVINGS TEAM UPDATE. Going alone - UK to leave the European Union

GOING ALONE UK TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION - 1 GOING ALONE UK TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION - Introduction 3 More questions than answers 4 What happened / Market reaction 5 Outlook 6 Politics is a growing