I am a Brit talking at an international conference. So, of course, I am here to talk about one thing.

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Marlene Hopkins
5 years ago
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1 Guy Platten Remarks to ICS conference Ladies and Gentlemen it s a great honour to be addressing you today. Thank you to the ICS for asking me to speak to you and thanks also for organising this excellent conference day. I am a Brit talking at an international conference. So, of course, I am here to talk about one thing. The B word. The decision to leave the EU, albeit by a margin of 52% to 48%, came as a surprise to many. Over the past couple of months, and indeed the months before it, I ve heard a lot being said about Brexit both by people in the UK and those around the world. And frankly, in searching for an answer as to why the UK voted to leave the European Union, there has been a tendency towards gross over simplification. Was it a protest vote against the ruling elite, concerns over immigration, return of sovereignty, left behind in the globalisation race, a belief the UK can fare better without the shackles of Brussels or numerous other reasons?

2 This decision was, at the very least, 40 years in the making. It was voted for by people on the left, right and centre of the political spectrum. People of all ages, of all circumstances. The EU is a complex set of institutions. People s attitudes towards it are therefore complex. The UK, granted by a small margin, did not vote to leave because of one single reason. To blame or celebrate the decision on one phenomena, the actions of one politician or indeed the arguments expressed during the referendum campaign will miss the point. It is a decision that has caused uncertainty. Yes, absolutely. But so far the sky has not fallen. There has been no plague of locusts. The economic panic of the day after the referendum has been replaced by a quiet, stoic resolve. The FTSE100 and 250 are strong. The pound is slowly recovering. Exports, manufacturing and tourism have gone up. Services have recovered sharply. Consumer confidence is high. Banks have revised growth forecasts upwards and the short term recession that was promised does not appear to be materialising. The UK Government has been approached by a number of economies around the world paving the way for potential future trade deals and the Government itself has said it wants to reclaim the pioneering spirit of Adam Smith and again be a champion for free trade across the world,

3 opening up new opportunities for importers, exporters, and the shipping companies that serve them. These are not the hallmarks of a nation in retreat. Nor do they signal a lack of opportunity for shipping. Quite rightly though people will say that we will not know the economic reality of Brexit for many years, but I would like friends from around the world to consider at least that this is not the revolutionary upheaval, the moment of madness or resignation from the global economy that some appear to believe. It is time for people to stop thinking of Brexit as being a good or bad thing. It will just be different. The UK voted to leave a supranational, political, legislative construct. It did not vote for, or even suggest any preference for, cutting ties and ending centuries old friendships with its neighbours. The UK s changing relationship with the EU does not, in truth, mean a worse relationship. Put simply, as the MEP Dan Hannan says, the EU will lose a bad tenant, and gain a good neighbour. Surely it is in everyone s interests for there to be an orderly and friendly departure. There will be bluster and hyperbole and emotion. And no doubt arguments conducted in the press. But when things finally settle down I think the outlook for both the UK and the EU will be better than people currently realise.

4 But to get to that point we need to know what the deal between the UK and the EU might look like. There has been a huge amount of discussion about this a Norway option, a Swiss option, a Canadian option, even a Greenland option. I don t think any of them are viable or necessarily even desirable. The UK s economy is much larger and much more complex than those nations, its population is bigger and its role in the world more deep rooted. The EU will look very different without it. So whatever deal emerges, it will be bespoke, and unlike any done before. I sincerely hope tariff and customs free trade, and passporting rights for financial services will be achieved. I believe it is possible. But anyone who at this stage is making a firm prediction is certain to be wrong and therefore I cannot in truth tell you the full implications of Brexit on international shipping. But whatever deal emerges, we should accept that Brexit does mean Brexit. The UK will leave the European Union and anyone attempting to argue that there will be some sort of change of heart will likely be disappointed. Yes there are many people who demand the immediate invocation of Article 50 and the publication of negotiating positions but they too will be

5 disappointed. I like many others, do not want government to rush this. I would rather it be right, than right now. But we do have now a stable government. I don t believe there will be a snap election nor do I see the imminent break up of the United Kingdom. For a start, the opinion polls in Scotland don t suggest a second independence referendum is sufficiently desired, or indeed likely to be won by the SNP. Indeed the First Minister sttod up in the Holyrood Parliament yesterday to essentially shelve plans for a quick second referendum and instead embark on a conversation. Nor is it likely that Scotland would be able to negotiate some special deal with the EU. Spain has already said it would veto such an allowance, as it would an application for an independent Scotland to join the EU at a later date. That gives some indication. So I think we can be comforted that we will have a degree of political stability for some time now which will allow at least some freedom for the government to begin the process of negotiation. But when analysing the UK s political situation, and trying to extrapolate from that what might happen in the negotiations, you can t look at the UK in isolation. You have to look also at the political situation in the EU and what pressures are being put on Member State Governments and Brussels itself.

6 Of course 45% of the UK s exports are to the EU and 53% of imports originate there with all the largest EU economies linked and interdependent on this trade. It could be said that on that basis the UK could be a net beneficiary of any trade tariffs. The EU Single Market has evolved from the EU Customs Union around the four key principles we have heard so much of the free movement of goods, people, capital and services. The UK s exit from the EU in what could be as soon as 2019 requires a new model for our trade relations internationally and with our former partners. But it s easy to forget. The EU is losing its second biggest member. Arguably one of its most globally influential member. Certainly its most well funded military. Nor should we ignore that Euroscepticism is on the rise across the EU, not just with fringe radical or extreme groups, but with ordinary people. There is a continued Eurozone crisis, debt crisis, migration crisis that the EU as a collective has not proven itself particularly good at dealing with. As a block, its economy has not moved forward in comparison to other continents and its ability to develop improved trade links with major economies appears fraught with problems just look how tortous the TTIP negotiations are proving. If we are talking about how political and economic stability define whether or not somewhere is a good place to do business, then there are question marks as to whether the European Union meets those tests.

7 But the UK is not starting from scratch we were a great maritime trading nation before the vote, and we are a great maritime trading nation day. Our skills have not evaporated. The size of our market, our time zone, our use of common law and the English language haven t disappeared. Our military will be no less strong, our contribution to global diplomacy no less important. And I believe that leaving the European Union, for all its challenges could provide the UK with a new sense of purpose and focus. And we have already seen that government is listening to business and industry like never before. I am happy to be shameless in my ambition for the UK shipping industry. But for those ambitions to be met we do need change. I believe our flag can become more competitive and grow significantly. Indeed, we are already in talks with the government as to how this can happen and I am excited and optimistic for the flag s future. Our tonnage tax can be made more attractive, our workforce more skilled and economy more entrepreneurial. And if we get this right then Brexit can work for the shipping industry and beyond. Britain is not still open for maritime business it is open for maritime business full stop.

8 So too do I believe leaving the European Union will deliver a stronger voice at IMO, not just for ourselves but for our European friends who feel constrained by the Commission s attempts at harmonisation. At present the UK is subject to EU Coordination on many issues in the IMO. The UK can again become more vocal regaining a position of leadership and influence within the IMO. And a hand of friendship can and should be held out to our European neighbours to ensure they too can benefit from that influence. I deliberately conclude my remarks by using the phrase hand of friendship. Because whilst there will no doubt be many disagreements and arguments among politicians in the years ahead, those arguments will not spill over into our truly global industry. The UK will continue to play its role in global shipping. Its long standing relationships will endure and strengthen. It will continue to be ambitious and forward thinking. There is no point in fearing Brexit. I encourage you all to accept it, embrace it, and begin to look with interest at the significant opportunities that will emerge for all of us. Thank you.

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