The real election and mandate Report on national post-election surveys

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "The real election and mandate Report on national post-election surveys"

Transcription

1 Date: November 13, 2012 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, and Campaign for America s Future Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Erica Seifert, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Robert Borosage, Campaign for America s Future The real election and mandate Report on national post-election surveys President Obama won an Electoral College landslide and a 3 or 4-point national victory against the great odds posed by prolonged high unemployment, lack of income gains, a barely perceptible recovery and political gridlock that kept his job approval at just 50 percent at best. He won because he was able to engage the diverse national coalition of Latinos, African Americans and Asians, young people and unmarried women who formed nearly half the electorate, despite the fact that these groups suffered the brunt of recession and have benefited least from the halting recovery. He also succeeded because he waged class war and won. That was how he was able to define the choice, winning back voters who had been hammered by the economy and getting them mobilized again. That he waged class warfare successfully has critical consequences for what is the mandate in the weeks and months ahead. This memo reports the results of the survey that Democracy Corps conducted for Campaign for America s Future on Election Night and the night after so voters were still clear about what was in their head at the time of the election. 1 We will also incorporate results conducted for Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund, Economy Media Project, and Human Rights Campaign. The President came back in the race when he centered the choice on the future facing the middle class and equally important, defined Mitt Romney as out-of-touch rich guy who does not care about the 47 percent, shipped jobs overseas as CEO of Bain Capital, wanted to cut taxes for the rich and wanted to reform and change Medicare in major ways. 1 This memo is mostly based on a national post-election survey of 1, presidential voters, conducted November 6-7, 2012 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Campaign for America s Future. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/ Survey results were weighted to reflect the National Exit Survey. The memo is also based on a data from a combined set of surveys partnering with several other progressive groups, including Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund, Economy Media Project and Human Rights Campaign.

2 Understand that most voters voted to keep Obama in office, despite the fact that majorities thought the country was on the wrong track and wanted change. They have intensely negative feelings about Wall Street and the the richest 1 percent. Romney got voters attention, as this survey shows. By 11 points, they thought he might have a better chance of breaking the gridlock (47 to 36 percent) where Obama was perceived to have failed. And by 5 points, voters thought he had better ideas on creating jobs. Only 44 percent said Obama was better than Romney on jobs a critical gap in an election where economy and jobs were the number one issue and number one priority for the future. The starting point for this election is the near double-digit advantage Obama established on restoring the middle class (51 to 42 percent) the choice the two candidates battled to win right to the end. The advantage was triple Obama s advantage in the vote and tracked his vote at 51 percent. The advantage on the core election choice was reflected in a collection of partisan and ideological factors that put Obama at an 8-point personal advantage over Romney (comparing net favorability), the Democratic Party at a 7-point advantage over the Republican Party, and the Democrats in Congress, a 7-point net advantage over the Republican Congress. Voters most disliked Wall Street and the richest 1 percent, and the Tea Party movement. They felt most warm about Planned Parenthood and Medicare. That contributed directly to the Democrats 6-point advantage in party identification. Bottom line, the voters gave a very clear mandate to the president: address the economy and growth, and protect middle class social insurance. Addressing deficits was important, but further down the priority list. By two-to-one, voters say the top priority should be growing the economy rather than a plan to reduce our deficits. Voters are not looking for Simpson-Bowles, but nearly the opposite tax increases on top earners and protection of Medicare and Social Security. The political class should pay attention, lest they see a TARP-like reaction to what is deemed to be bold change at a critical turning point, with negotiations now beginning in the fiscal showdown. Yes, class warfare won. The President framed this election as a make or break moment for the middle class. That was the starting point in his battle for re-election: in effect, waging class war, standing with the middle class, insisting that everybody pay their fair share and get a fair shake, while advocating higher taxes on the wealthiest as a central plank in his platform. With the country upset with Wall Street and the top 1 percent, Obama defined Romney as out of touch, an outsourcer, and a champion of trickle down who wanted to protect tax cuts for the rich. When Obama and swing voters were asked their three biggest doubts about Romney, being for the rich and out of touch with average people encompass half of the total responses. 2

3 3

4 The volatile voters that Obama consolidated to produce his majority of 51 percent were more populist than those Obama voters who never wavered. They were more likely to mention the 47 percent video and much more likely to site outsourcing at Bain and return to trickle-down economics. Obama s majority was produced by those class attacks on Romney. The Rising American Electorate of unmarried women, minority, and young voters that gave Obama almost as big a percentage as in 2008 were also moved above all by this class characterization of Romney 63 percent of their total reasons given for voting against Romney. Ultimately, Obama won by 9 points on which candidate would restore the middle class the summary of the class battleground in this election. With the election centered on the future of the middle class and Obama s vote shaped by it, the country s real policy agenda for the future looks very different than the elites. We read voters this statement: Both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney said in their campaigns that this election is about the future of the middle class. That was the big choice. Now, that the election is over, which THREE of the following are the most important things for us to focus on? Across the whole electorate, 50 percent said create jobs and get the economy moving well ahead of deficit reduction, protecting middle class retirement benefits, 4

5 and investing in education. But note that the deficit number was produced almost entirely by the Romney voters. Among the certain and swing Obama voters, addressing the deficit ranked 3 rd and 4 th behind other priorities particularly protecting middle class retirement benefits, including Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. It should not be surprising that voters in this election now prioritize growth over deficit reduction and believe pretty simply that Medicare and Social Security should not be part of any big bi-partisan deficit reduction package. 5

6 In a post-election survey for The Economy Media Project, we contrasted two alternatives one to expand employment and other to protect social insurance against the conservative and elite priority, presented below Given where our economy is, we should cut government spending and reduce the federal deficit that weighs down our economy and give confidence to businesses to invest and create jobs. When given the alternative to invest now in infrastructure, education and technology, and rehiring teachers and firefighters, they opted for growth over deficit reduction by 9 points (52 to 43 percent). When given the alternative of helping the middle class by protecting Medicare and Social Security, they opt for protecting retirement programs over deficit reduction by 9 points (50 to 41 percent). It could not be clearer: this election produced a citizenry educated on how they want to address the economy and the future of the middle class. Since both Democrats and Republicans attacked the other side for cutting Medicare spending and endangering the program, it would be an unpleasant surprise to voters if Medicare were the first casualty of deficit reduction. Elite opinion risks another TARP where voters came to feel the elites of both parties took the wrong lesson from the election and economic crisis. 6

7 The Grand Bargain With Congress beginning to consider a grand bargain on long-term deficit reduction to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, our survey found that voters have clear and strong priorities and these contrast starkly with the terms discussed in the President s negotiations with House Speaker Boehner in the summer of 2011 and with the recommendations of the co-chairs of the President s deficit commission, Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles. We asked voters what they would find acceptable and unacceptable in a $4 trillion deficit reduction deal. They overwhelmingly and across the political spectrum want Medicare and Social Security protected. They found unacceptable cuts in domestic programs that failed to protect programs for infants, poor children, schools and college aid. More than two-thirds would find an agreement unacceptable if it did not raise taxes on the rich, or if it lowered top rates on the rich and the corporations. This is not because they oppose all measures to close the deficit. They favor raising taxes on the rich. Three in four found acceptable a plan that would create a higher tax rate on those earning over one million dollars a year (including a majority of Republicans). Seventy percent agreed with the president s call to raise taxes on the top 2 percent, while keeping them low for the middle and working class. More than two-thirds found acceptable shutting down corporate tax havens abroad by imposing a minimum tax on overseas profits (including 71 percent of Republicans). 7

8 Voters want cuts in waste and subsidies to special interests. For example, 89 percent found acceptable savings from negotiating lower drug prices from drug companies. Nearly twothirds (65 percent) favored cuts in subsidies to oil companies, agribusiness and multinational corporations. Nearly three-fourths favored cutting military spending by ending the war in Afghanistan (including 60 percent of conservatives). While voters think deficit reduction is a serious priority although below that of creating jobs and growth they do not believe that Social Security and Medicare need to be cut to address it. We gave voters a choice between two statements one acknowledging the federal deficit as a big problem, but arguing against major spending cuts in Social Security and Medicare and the other arguing deficits are such a national crisis that broad spending cuts must include possible future cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Even with this cautious statement, 60 percent preferred the no cut position (47 percent strongly) to 33 percent who accepted the potential of future cuts. Just as voters will be unpleasantly surprised if a deficit deal costs jobs and slows the economy, they are likely to object to legislators who vote for a deal that includes cuts in Medicare and Social Security, while failing to raise tax rates on the rich and the corporations, or to take on wasteful corporate subsidies. Defeating austerity The debate over Simpson-Bowles or any big bi-partisan budget deal up until now has taken for granted that the first priority for the country is reducing its long-term deficits. But that was before austerity drove much of Europe into recession and before we had an election on the topic. This is a serious debate where progressives have been making gains, despite the elite consensus on the need for restraining spending and deficits. Here is where we stand: On the simple choice between a plan to grow the economy and a plan to reduce the deficit, growth wins 62 to 30 percent among those who voted last week. Voters split evenly on whether the short-term pain is worth it even when conservatives argue that the short-term spending endangers our future. Growth wins the argument in a big way when joined with a commitment to reduce wasteful spending and eliminate special interest loopholes and subsidies. This is a critical part of the progressive argument. Growth plans gain support and win a decisive majority when they are more populist: A new plan must start by closing corporate loopholes and raising taxes on those at the top even as it affirms that any deficit plan must not entertain Medicare or Social Security cuts. 8

9 And the Economic Media Project s research shows increasing support for a liberal economic position that warns against drastic spending cuts and supports serious investments: We should avoid immediate drastic cuts in spending, and instead, we need serious investments that create jobs and make us more prosperous in the long term that will reduce our debt, too. We know that voters are skeptical about short-term stimulus spending that is not grounded in long-term investments for the country that will make us more prosperous with less debt. But serious investments that make us more prosperous in the long-term wins the public argument by 51 to 42 percent and those margins have been growing going into this period of debate about the economy and debt. Those elected last week are in a position to argue for investment-led growth to enrich us long-term, confident that that policy will supersede calls to focus on lower long-term deficits. We need not give into the hysteria over deficits and fiscal cliff. The jobs agenda The president won re-election by making the choice about the middle class and defining Romney as for the rich and out of touch. But on the main issue in voters minds the economy and creating jobs Obama did not gain an edge over Romney. Many of Obama s unwavering voters supported him because of his handling of the crisis and wanting to continue the progress, as well as his rescue of the auto industry. A nearly equal number supported him because of his plans on the economy and to raise taxes on the wealthy. In any case, the economic reasons for supporting Obama form just one-third of the total responses and they are divided between past and future judgments. Romney s positive offer was more focused split evenly between his jobs plans and business experience on the one hand and his intention to cut government spending, repeal Obamacare, and reduce the deficit. For the certain Romney voters, his job plans topped the reasons to vote for him. The result is that on Election Day, Romney enjoyed a 2-point advantage on the economy and was up 5 points on creating jobs: just 44 percent chose Obama on jobs 7 points below his vote. While voters are looking for action on the economy and jobs, Obama did not highlight what he intended to do differently on the economy. His argument for allowing his policy more time appealed largely to his most loyal supporters. We know the voters in this Election night survey responded very warmly to a plan to invest in new industries and rebuild the country and create jobs over the next five years: over two-thirds were very favorable to this idea and this result is 8 points higher than a longterm plan for addressing the deficit. 9

10 We know that Obama got 39 percent of the white vote and over one-third (36 percent) of white non-college voters. Those voters had even more doubts about Romney being for the rich and out-of-touch and perhaps more would have moved to Obama had there been a bigger offer on jobs and long-term economic plans. Voters are still looking for action on the economy and jobs, and there is good reason to believe they are open to serious investments that put America on a track that rescues the middle class. 10

State of the Union 2014: At critical juncture, President makes major gains

State of the Union 2014: At critical juncture, President makes major gains Date: January 29, 2014 To: Friends of and Women s Voices Women Vote Action Fund From: Stan Greenberg, James Carville, Erica Seifert, and Scott Tiell State of the Union 2014: At critical juncture, President

More information

Hillary Clinton s strong debate defines closing election choice Clinton gains on honesty, middle class and economy and impacts U.S.

Hillary Clinton s strong debate defines closing election choice Clinton gains on honesty, middle class and economy and impacts U.S. Date: October 21, 2016 To: Progressive community From: Stan Greenberg and Nancy Zdunkewicz, Page Gardner, Women s Voices Women Vote Action Fund Hillary Clinton s strong debate defines closing election

More information

Rural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 2008

Rural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 2008 June 8, 07 Rural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 08 To: From: Interested Parties Anna Greenberg, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner William Greener, Greener and

More information

RE: Less Spending and More Government: the Conflicting Views of Voters Under 40

RE: Less Spending and More Government: the Conflicting Views of Voters Under 40 MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: Interested Parties Ed Gillespie and Jan van Lohuizen DATE: February 26, 2013 RE: Less Spending and More Government: the Conflicting Views of Voters Under 40 In the first installment

More information

President Obama and the Democrats at Six Months

President Obama and the Democrats at Six Months Date: August 10, 2009 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Stanley B. Greenberg, James Carville and Andrew Baumann President Obama and the Democrats at Six Months The last

More information

Turnout and the New American Majority

Turnout and the New American Majority Date: February 26, 2010 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Women s Voices. Women Vote Stan Greenberg and Dave Walker Turnout and the New American Majority A Year-Long Project Tracking Voter Participation

More information

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #14039 -- page 1 Interviews: 800 Adults, including 240 cell phone only respondents Date: January 22-25, 2014 Study #14039 48 Male 52 Female Please

More information

NPR/Democracy Corps/Resurgent Republic Frequency Questionnaire

NPR/Democracy Corps/Resurgent Republic Frequency Questionnaire NPR/Democracy Corps/Resurgent Republic Frequency Questionnaire September 26-30, 2012 800 Likely Voters 265 ground Voters (CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI) (65 from base, 200 from battleground

More information

National Security and the 2008 Election

National Security and the 2008 Election Click to edit Master title style April 3, 2008 National Security and the 2008 Election Democracy Corps Fourth and level Greenberg Quinlan Rosner March 25-27, 2008 1000 likely voters nationwide Click to

More information

The President, Congress and Deficit Battles April 15-20, 2011

The President, Congress and Deficit Battles April 15-20, 2011 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Thursday, April 21, 2011 6:30pm (EDT) The President, Congress and Deficit Battles April 15-20, 2011 With the possibility of more spending showdowns between President

More information

Health Care Speech Brings Small Rebound for Democrats and Serious Problems for Republicans

Health Care Speech Brings Small Rebound for Democrats and Serious Problems for Republicans Date: September 23, 2009 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Stanley B. Greenberg, James Carville, Jesse Contario and Kate Monninger Health Care Speech Brings Small

More information

President Obama Leads in Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania September 18-24, 2012

President Obama Leads in Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania September 18-24, 2012 Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times Poll For release: Wednesday, September 26, 2012 3:00 A.M. EDT President Obama Leads in Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania September 18-24, 2012 Recent national and

More information

CAPPELEN DAMM ACCESS UPDATE: THE PERFECT SLOSH

CAPPELEN DAMM ACCESS UPDATE: THE PERFECT SLOSH CAPPELEN DAMM ACCESS UPDATE: THE PERFECT SLOSH 2 The following article about the American Mid-Term elections in 2010 seeks to explain the surprisingly dramatic swings in the way Americans have voted over

More information

Public Opinion on Health Care Issues October 2012

Public Opinion on Health Care Issues October 2012 Public Opinion on Health Care Issues October 2012 One week before the 2012 presidential election, health policy issues including Medicare and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) remain a factor in voters views

More information

Making Sense of the Jewish Vote

Making Sense of the Jewish Vote To: From: Interested Parties Jim Gerstein Date: February 28, 2012 Making Sense of the Jewish Vote As November 2012 approaches, we can expect the familiar election year battle cry of Republican, conservatives,

More information

movements in the United States, namely the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street. The

movements in the United States, namely the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street. The Ádám Hushegyi M.A. Dissertation Evaluation The Evolution and Political Impact of the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street during Barack Obama s Presidency 2017 Ádám Hushegyi has written his M.A. dissertation

More information

The President-Elect s Standing: Now and 1992

The President-Elect s Standing: Now and 1992 Date: December 3, 2008 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps Stanley B. Greenberg, James Carville and Andrew H. Baumann The President-Elect s Standing: Now and 1992 Report on new national survey The latest

More information

I. The Role of Political Parties

I. The Role of Political Parties Political Parties I. The Role of Political Parties A. What is a Political Party? 1. A political party is an organization that tries to elect its members to office in order to promote its political goals.

More information

Obama vs. Romney: Is It the Economy, Stupid?

Obama vs. Romney: Is It the Economy, Stupid? Obama vs. Romney: Is It the Economy, Stupid? Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes Pew Research Center October 24-25, 2012 The American Voter 2 Voter Turnout 2004 2008 % % Total 63.8 63.6 White

More information

SETTING THE STAGE. News in Review December 2012 Teacher Resource Guide U.S. ELECTION: OBAMA RE ELECTED. Check It Out

SETTING THE STAGE. News in Review December 2012 Teacher Resource Guide U.S. ELECTION: OBAMA RE ELECTED. Check It Out News in Review December 2012 Teacher Resource Guide U.S. ELECTION: OBAMA RE ELECTED SETTING THE STAGE A YouTube clip of a little girl crying and saying she was tired of Bronco Bamma and Mitt Romney captured

More information

Key Principles of an Effective Message

Key Principles of an Effective Message Message Guidance: Countering Trump and the Republican Majority, October 2017 1 To: Progressive Leaders and Allies Fr: Lake Research Partners Re: Message Guidance: Countering Trump and the Republican Majority

More information

The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities

The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities Report on new survey of Republicans February 2016 Methodology National Web-Survey of 800 Likely 2016 Republican Voters. This survey took place February 11-16, 2016.

More information

President Ronald Reagan: Trickle Down Economics and Cold War Defense Spending

President Ronald Reagan: Trickle Down Economics and Cold War Defense Spending President Ronald Reagan: Trickle Down Economics and Cold War Defense Spending E. America Enters World War II (1945-Present) g. Analyze the origins of the Cold War, foreign policy developments, and major

More information

How Progressives Can & Must Engage on NAFTA Renegotiations Findings from National Poll

How Progressives Can & Must Engage on NAFTA Renegotiations Findings from National Poll Date: October 20, 2017 From: Stan Greenberg, Greenberg Research How Progressives Can & Must Engage on NAFTA Renegotiations Findings from National Poll Trade stands out from every other policy issue because

More information

Grim Views of the Economy, the President and Congress September 10-15, 2011

Grim Views of the Economy, the President and Congress September 10-15, 2011 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Friday, September 16, 2011 6:30 PM EDT Grim Views of the Economy, the President and Congress September 10-15, 2011 72% of Americans think the country is off on

More information

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #13266 -- page 1 Interviews: 1000 Adults, including 300 cell phone only respondents Date: July 17-21, 2013 Study #13266 48 Male 52 Female Please

More information

Asian American Survey

Asian American Survey Asian American Survey Findings from a Survey of 700 Asian American Voters nationwide plus 100 each in FL, IL, NV, and VA Celinda Lake, David Mermin, and Shilpa Grover Lake Research Partners Washington,

More information

liberals triumph in federal election

liberals triumph in federal election liberals triumph in federal election Canada s 42nd general election, held on October 19, had an outcome that surprised many observers and one that will also bring about a dramatic change in government.

More information

In Health Reform s Hot Summer, Public Doubts are on the Rise

In Health Reform s Hot Summer, Public Doubts are on the Rise ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: HEALTH CARE REFORM EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Friday, Aug. 21, 2009 In Health Reform s Hot Summer, Public Doubts are on the Rise Public doubt about health care

More information

Tell us about your role within the Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC).

Tell us about your role within the Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC). An Interview with Osama Kadi Tell us about your role within the Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC). Kadi: I am not a Coalition member, but I was nominated to head the Friends of Syria (FoS) platform addressing

More information

CENTER FOR POLICY ALTERNATIVES

CENTER FOR POLICY ALTERNATIVES CENTER FOR POLICY ALTERNATIVES Findings from a Nationwide Survey November 2006 Created by: Celinda Lake, Joshua Ulibarri, Kelly Holland 2 Methodology Lake Research Partners designed and administered this

More information

PartnersCeli ndalakealysi asnelldavidm ermin Dr. RobertG.MeadowDani elgotoff JoshuaUlibarri

PartnersCeli ndalakealysi asnelldavidm ermin Dr. RobertG.MeadowDani elgotoff JoshuaUlibarri To: Interested Parties From: Celinda Lake and Daniel Gotoff, Lake Research Partners Re: Key Findings from 4-State Battleground Survey on Wall Street Reform Date: September 9, 2016 The following memo outlines

More information

Pew Research Center. December 10,

Pew Research Center. December 10, September 2011 A Snapshot of Hispanic Older Adults: Economic Security, Demographics & Voting Trends Overview The aging population in the United States is drastically growing and changing. It is estimated

More information

A Post-Primary Rally Boosts Trump, Albeit with Challenges Aplenty

A Post-Primary Rally Boosts Trump, Albeit with Challenges Aplenty ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: Clinton vs. Trump EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Sunday, May 22, 2016 A Post-Primary Rally Boosts Trump, Albeit with Challenges Aplenty A new ABC News/Washington

More information

Sequestration: What Is It? And How Could It Impact California?

Sequestration: What Is It? And How Could It Impact California? october 2012 california senate office of research Sequestration: What Is It? And How Could It Impact California? In August 2011, Congress passed the Budget Control Act of 2011. 1 Unless Congress elects

More information

The Electoral Process STEP BY STEP. the worksheet activity to the class. the answers with the class. (The PowerPoint works well for this.

The Electoral Process STEP BY STEP. the worksheet activity to the class. the answers with the class. (The PowerPoint works well for this. Teacher s Guide Time Needed: One class period Materials Needed: Student worksheets Projector Copy Instructions: Reading (2 pages; class set) Activity (3 pages; class set) The Electoral Process Learning

More information

RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, July, 2016, 2016 Campaign: Strong Interest, Widespread Dissatisfaction

RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, July, 2016, 2016 Campaign: Strong Interest, Widespread Dissatisfaction NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE JULY 07, 2016 FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research Bridget Johnson,

More information

State of the Female Electorate. January 16-19, 2018 N = 1,200 respondents (1/3 Landline, 1/3 Cell, 1/3 Internet) margin of error: +/- 2.

State of the Female Electorate. January 16-19, 2018 N = 1,200 respondents (1/3 Landline, 1/3 Cell, 1/3 Internet) margin of error: +/- 2. State of the Female Electorate January 16-19, 2018 N = 1,200 respondents (1/3 Landline, 1/3 Cell, 1/3 Internet) margin of error: +/- 2.83% 1 With soaring stock markets, plummeting unemployment rates, and

More information

American Politics and Foreign Policy

American Politics and Foreign Policy American Politics and Foreign Policy Shibley Telhami and Stella Rouse Principal Investigators A survey sponsored by University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll fielded by Nielsen Scarborough Survey Methodology

More information

Bush, Clinton, Bush, & Obama Administrations

Bush, Clinton, Bush, & Obama Administrations Bush, Clinton, Bush, & Obama Administrations SWBAT Explain administrative policies of Bush, Clinton, Bush, & Obama Do Now: What two controversial decisions made by Gerald Ford may have cost him re-election

More information

Overview. Importance of Issues to Voters

Overview. Importance of Issues to Voters TO: FROM: Interested Parties Whit Ayres and Jon McHenry DATE: November 14, 2014 RE: Post-Election Survey of Registered Voters Regarding Room to Grow Messages Overview This post-election survey of registered

More information

Debt Ceiling Deadline Moved Up to August From November

Debt Ceiling Deadline Moved Up to August From November Debt Ceiling Deadline Moved Up to August From November June 6, 2017 by Gary D. Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Not Much Time Left For Trump/GOP Legislative Agenda 2. Congress Has a Jam-Packed Schedule

More information

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15398 -- page 1 Interviews: 1,000 Adults, including 350 respondents with a cell phone only and Date: September 20-24, 2015 44 respondents reached

More information

TUESDAY, MARCH 22, 2016 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11

TUESDAY, MARCH 22, 2016 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11 ARIZONA E L E C T I O N D A Y : TUESDAY, MARCH 22, 2016 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11 TOTAL POPULATION (2014): 6,731,484 LATINO POPULATION (2014): 2,056,456 Since 2000, Arizona has seen one particularly

More information

Macroeconomics and Presidential Elections

Macroeconomics and Presidential Elections Macroeconomics and Presidential Elections WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE JUNE 28, 2011 With the start of July, it s now just 16 months until we have our next presidential election in the United States. Republican

More information

US History The End of Prosperity The Big Idea Main Ideas

US History The End of Prosperity The Big Idea Main Ideas The End of Prosperity The Big Idea The collapse of the stock market in 1929 helped lead to the start of the Great Depression. Main Ideas The U.S. stock market crashed in 1929. The economy collapsed after

More information

Union Voters and Democrats

Union Voters and Democrats POLITICAL MEMO Union Voters and Democrats BY ANNE KIM AND STEFAN HANKIN MAY 2011 Top and union leaders play host this week to prospective 2012 Congressional candidates, highlighting labor s status as a

More information

Introduction to the Federal Budget Process

Introduction to the Federal Budget Process Introduction to the Federal Budget Process This backgrounder describes the laws and procedures under which Congress decides how much money to spend each year, what to spend it on, and how to raise the

More information

The margin of error for 1,008 interviews is ± 3.1%

The margin of error for 1,008 interviews is ± 3.1% HART/NEWHOUSE Study #6073--page 1 1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW Interviews: 1,008 adults Washington, DC 20009 Dates: June 8-11, 2007 (202) 234-5570 FINAL Study #6073 NBC News/Wall Street Journal 48 Male

More information

working paper Spending UNder President George W. BUSh No March 2009 (corrected) by Veronique de Rugy

working paper Spending UNder President George W. BUSh No March 2009 (corrected) by Veronique de Rugy No. 09-04 March 2009 (corrected) working paper Spending UNder President George W. BUSh by Veronique de Rugy The opinions expressed in this Working Paper are the authors and do not represent official positions

More information

plus is that polling is a more direct way for the public to express policy preferences than is going

plus is that polling is a more direct way for the public to express policy preferences than is going OPINION POLLS IN A DEMOCRACY (EXERCISE) Public opinion polls are an important form of public input into political decision making. There is some controversy about the role polls (also called surveys) should

More information

[ 11.1 ] Political Parties and What They Do

[ 11.1 ] Political Parties and What They Do [ 11.1 ] Political Parties and What They Do [ 11.1 ] Political Parties and What They Do Learning Objectives Understand the origins of political parties in the United States and analyze their major functions.

More information

Globalisation Enters a New Phase

Globalisation Enters a New Phase b Globalisation Enters a New Phase B What was the reaction in your country to Donald Trump s election win? What do you think are the global implications of his victory? November 2016 The Guardian Globalisation

More information

Marxist Obama Wins as Conservative Predictions of a Romney Victory Go Up in Smoke

Marxist Obama Wins as Conservative Predictions of a Romney Victory Go Up in Smoke Marxist Obama Wins as Conservative Predictions of a Romney Victory Go Up in Smoke Although Republican Mitt Romney lost an easily winnable election, many conservative commentators and analysts took a beating

More information

REPUBLICANS VS. DEMOCRATS:

REPUBLICANS VS. DEMOCRATS: The upcoming 2016 presidential election has spurred several questions from our clients, such as which political party is better for the economy, particularly here in the Washington metro area, the seat

More information

How to Talk About Money in Politics

How to Talk About Money in Politics How to Talk About Money in Politics This brief memo provides the details you need to most effectively connect with and engage voters to promote workable solutions to reduce the power of money in politics.

More information

Election of May the Candidates Please Rise

Election of May the Candidates Please Rise Election of 1860 May the Candidates Please Rise The Election of 1860 During the election of 1860 four candies ran for office. Each candidate had different views. Slavery of course will be a major issue

More information

An Economy Moving Forward Again

An Economy Moving Forward Again An Economy Moving Forward Again The Flynn Plan to Increase Jobs and Wages in Wisconsin By now, the slow growth of jobs and wages during the seven years of the Walker Administration has wreaked enough hardship

More information

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #17433 -- page 1 Interviews: 800 Adults in Trump Counties, including 360 respondents with a cell phone only and Date: November 1-4, 2017 16 respondents

More information

Public opinion, socialization. Objective: SWBAT. and ideology

Public opinion, socialization. Objective: SWBAT. and ideology Public opinion, socialization Objective: SWBAT and ideology What is public opinion? Public opinion: How people think or feel about particular things Politics, weather, sports teams, clothing, etc. Not

More information

Obama Maintains Approval Advantage, But GOP Runs Even on Key Issues

Obama Maintains Approval Advantage, But GOP Runs Even on Key Issues MAY 8, 2013 Two-Thirds Say Obama Fights Hard for His Policies Obama Maintains Approval Advantage, But GOP Runs Even on Key Issues FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT THE PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE

More information

It's Still the Economy

It's Still the Economy It's Still the Economy County Officials Views on the Economy in 2010 Richard L. Clark, Ph.D Prepared in cooperation with The National Association of Counties Carl Vinson Institute of Government University

More information

For Voters It s Still the Economy

For Voters It s Still the Economy MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2012 Energy, Terrorism, Immigration Less Important Than in 2008 For Voters It s Still the Economy FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Kohut President, Pew Research Center Carroll

More information

Interview with Kim Monk, managing director, Capital Alpha 11/29/16

Interview with Kim Monk, managing director, Capital Alpha 11/29/16 Interview with Kim Monk, managing director, Capital Alpha 11/29/16 Hello. I'm Jackie Doherty, contributing editor with Yardeni Research. Today I'm interviewing Kim Monk, a founding partner of Capital Alpha,

More information

A New America A New Majority A New Challenge

A New America A New Majority A New Challenge A New America A New Majority A New Challenge Women's Voices. (WVWV) WVWV is a 501(c)3 nonprofit, nonpartisan organization and does not endorse candidates. WVWV is dedicated to increasing the share of unmarried

More information

Democrats set to win Massachusetts, Connecticut Senate races

Democrats set to win Massachusetts, Connecticut Senate races FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 2, 2012 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH

More information

AARP Minnesota Member Survey on the Health Care Reform Plan in the House of Representatives..

AARP Minnesota Member Survey on the Health Care Reform Plan in the House of Representatives.. AARP Minnesota Member Survey on the Health Care Reform Plan in the House of Representatives.. November 2009 AARP Minnesota Member Survey on the Health Care Reform Plan in the House of Representatives Copyright

More information

Remarks of AFL-CIO President Richard L. Trumka 29 th New Jersey State AFL-CIO Constitutional Convention Atlantic City, New Jersey June 21, 2016

Remarks of AFL-CIO President Richard L. Trumka 29 th New Jersey State AFL-CIO Constitutional Convention Atlantic City, New Jersey June 21, 2016 Remarks of AFL-CIO President Richard L. Trumka 29 th New Jersey State AFL-CIO Constitutional Convention Atlantic City, New Jersey June 21, 2016 Thank you, Brother Charlie [Wowkanech]. I appreciate you

More information

Obama trails Perry, Romney by single digits in Kentucky

Obama trails Perry, Romney by single digits in Kentucky FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 2, 2011 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH

More information

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Iowa September 20, 2012 Presidential Election Questionnaire

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Iowa September 20, 2012 Presidential Election Questionnaire Screener Are you 18 years of age or older? Do you consider your permanent home address to be in Iowa? HH SELECTION LANDLINE FRAME ONLY GENDER GUESS NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Iowa

More information

Obama Job Approval Improves, GOP Contest Remains Fluid

Obama Job Approval Improves, GOP Contest Remains Fluid THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2011 Continued Lackluster Ratings for Republican Field Obama Job Approval Improves, GOP Contest Remains Fluid FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Kohut President, Pew Research

More information

Inequality and Growth in the Knowledge Society. Joseph E. Stiglitz Siena May 4, 2017

Inequality and Growth in the Knowledge Society. Joseph E. Stiglitz Siena May 4, 2017 Inequality and Growth in the Knowledge Society Joseph E. Stiglitz Siena May 4, 2017 There has been growing inequality within most countries of the world Is this growth a result of forces of nature the

More information

DeHavilland Information Services Ltd

DeHavilland Information Services Ltd The Netherlands voted yesterday to elect a new Parliament, with talks now set to begin on the formation of a new government. 2017 is a crucial year for Europe, with France and Germany also going to the

More information

state offices - are Wk7 Wk8 * 1 2 * 1 *

state offices - are Wk7 Wk8 * 1 2 * 1 * 0 Weekly Political Tracking Poll Week : Oct, 0 S. Many people are busy and don t get a chance to vote in every election. Thinking ahead to the November 0 election, what would you say the chances are that

More information

AP AMERICAN GOVERNMENT STUDY GUIDE POLITICAL BELIEFS AND BEHAVIORS PUBLIC OPINION PUBLIC OPINION, THE SPECTRUM, & ISSUE TYPES DESCRIPTION

AP AMERICAN GOVERNMENT STUDY GUIDE POLITICAL BELIEFS AND BEHAVIORS PUBLIC OPINION PUBLIC OPINION, THE SPECTRUM, & ISSUE TYPES DESCRIPTION PUBLIC OPINION , THE SPECTRUM, & ISSUE TYPES IDEOLOGY THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM (LIBERAL CONSERVATIVE SPECTRUM) VALENCE ISSUES WEDGE ISSUE SALIENCY What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of

More information

University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll Topline Results Oct. 31, 2012 October 2012 poll of Iowa respondents

University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll Topline Results Oct. 31, 2012 October 2012 poll of Iowa respondents University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll Topline Results Oct. 31, 2012 October 2012 poll of Iowa respondents Sample: 320 participants in Iowa, margin of error for full sample is plus or minus 5.6 percent. The October

More information

Period 9: 1980 to the Present

Period 9: 1980 to the Present Period 9: 1980 to the Present In a Nutshell As the United States transitioned to a new century filled with challenges and possibilities, it experienced renewed ideological and cultural debates, sought

More information

MoveOn.org: Outreach Analysis:

MoveOn.org: Outreach Analysis: Memorandum: Date: 1/26/14 To: Danielle DeVoss From: Elizabeth Bell Re: Outreach Analysis MoveOn.org: Outreach Analysis: Introduction: MoveOn is a community of more than 8 million Americans from all walks

More information

Tea Party s Image Turns More Negative

Tea Party s Image Turns More Negative OCTOBER 16, 2013 Tea Party s Image Turns More Negative Ted Cruz s Popularity Soars among Tea Party Republicans FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT THE PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS Michael

More information

Challenges and Opportunities for Colombia s Social Justice and Economy. Joseph E. Stiglitz Bogota February 16, 2017

Challenges and Opportunities for Colombia s Social Justice and Economy. Joseph E. Stiglitz Bogota February 16, 2017 Challenges and Opportunities for Colombia s Social Justice and Economy Joseph E. Stiglitz Bogota February 16, 2017 Multiple Challenges facing Colombia today Managing its economy through the weak phase

More information

Reconciliation 101 December 6, 2016

Reconciliation 101 December 6, 2016 CHAIRMEN MITCH DANIELS Reconciliation 101 December 6, 2016 LEON PANETTA TIM PENNY PRESIDENT MAYA MACGUINEAS DIRECTORS BARRY ANDERSON ERSKINE BOWLES CHARLES BOWSHER KENT CONRAD DAN CRIPPEN VIC FAZIO WILLIS

More information

U.S. OFFICE OF SPECIAL COUNSEL. Report of Prohibited Political Activity under the Hatch Act OSC File No. HA (Kellyanne Conway) March 6, 2018

U.S. OFFICE OF SPECIAL COUNSEL. Report of Prohibited Political Activity under the Hatch Act OSC File No. HA (Kellyanne Conway) March 6, 2018 U.S. OFFICE OF SPECIAL COUNSEL Report of Prohibited Political Activity under the Hatch Act (Kellyanne Conway) March 6, 2018 This report represents the deliberative attorney work product of the U.S. Office

More information

Data Models. 1. Data REGISTRATION STATUS VOTING HISTORY

Data Models. 1. Data REGISTRATION STATUS VOTING HISTORY Cambridge Analytica offers a range of enhanced audience segments drawn from our national database of over 220 million Americans. These segments can be used individually or together to power highly targeted

More information

American Inequality in Six Charts

American Inequality in Six Charts Page 1 of 8 «Six Reasons the Affordable Care Act Isn t Hurricane Katrina Main Americans Like Obamacare Where They Can Get It» November 18, 2013 American Inequality in Six Charts Posted by John Cassidy

More information

Presidential Race. Virginia Illinois Maine. Published Nov 1 Oct 13 Nov 1 Sept 22 Oct 31 Sept 7. Hillary Clinton 49% 46% 53% 45% 46% 44%

Presidential Race. Virginia Illinois Maine. Published Nov 1 Oct 13 Nov 1 Sept 22 Oct 31 Sept 7. Hillary Clinton 49% 46% 53% 45% 46% 44% November 1, 2016 Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor Spencer_Kimball@emerson.edu 617-824- 8737 Emerson College Polls: Clinton Leads in Virginia (+4), Maine (+4) and Illinois

More information

Latino Voters in the 2008 Presidential Election:

Latino Voters in the 2008 Presidential Election: Educational Fund Latino Voters in the 2008 Presidential Election: Post-Election Survey of Latino Voters National Assoication of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund On November

More information

Voting and Elections

Voting and Elections Voting and Elections The Two Step Election Process Primaries: Held by the parties to select their nominees. Organized on the state level. Generally held in the spring, but dates vary state to state. Democrats

More information

Presented By: Brooks Kochvar. Greg Strimple. SC Primary Survey: October 18 19, 2011; 400N/4.90% Margin of Error

Presented By: Brooks Kochvar. Greg Strimple. SC Primary Survey: October 18 19, 2011; 400N/4.90% Margin of Error AARP SURVEY: SOUTH CAROLINA Presented By: Brooks Kochvar Greg Strimple GS Strategy Group 350 N. Ninth Street, Suite 550 Boise, ID 83702 (208) 342 1545 SC Primary Survey: October 18 19, 2011; 400N/4.9 Margin

More information

History of Our Parties

History of Our Parties History of Our Parties -the first parties -Federalist/Democratic- Republicans Hamilton did not trust people Jefferson give power to people -Democrats/Whigs Formed just before Civil War -Democrats / Republicans

More information

Obama s Majority and Republican Marginalization

Obama s Majority and Republican Marginalization October 24, 2008 Obama s Majority and Republican Marginalization National and Presidential Battleground Surveys Methodology and Overview The results of the following survey are cited throughout this presentation:

More information

Obama Hits a New Low for Leadership, With Criticism on ISIS & Immigration Alike

Obama Hits a New Low for Leadership, With Criticism on ISIS & Immigration Alike ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: The President and the Midterms EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 9, 2014 Obama Hits a New Low for Leadership, With Criticism on ISIS & Immigration Alike

More information

An in-depth examination of North Carolina voter attitudes in important current issues. Registered Voters in North Carolina

An in-depth examination of North Carolina voter attitudes in important current issues. Registered Voters in North Carolina An in-depth examination of North Carolina voter attitudes in important current issues Registered Voters in North Carolina January 21-25, 2018 Table of Contents Key Survey Insights... 3 Satisfaction with

More information

U.S. Presidential Candidate Spending Analysis Ron Paul. Total Net Spending Agenda: -$1.221 trillion (savings)

U.S. Presidential Candidate Spending Analysis Ron Paul. Total Net Spending Agenda: -$1.221 trillion (savings) U.S. Presidential Candidate Spending Analysis Ron Paul Total Net Spending Agenda: -$1.221 trillion (savings) Economy, Transportation, and Infrastructure: -$4.565 billion (savings) A. Establish Sound Money

More information

SIENA COLLEGE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY

SIENA COLLEGE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY SIENA COLLEGE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY www.siena.edu/scri For Immediate Release: Friday, October 6, 2017 Contact: Steven Greenberg, 518-469-9858 PDF version; crosstabs; website:

More information

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congress is doing? Dec 07 25% Democrats 62% Nov 07 26% Republicans 19% 74 8

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congress is doing? Dec 07 25% Democrats 62% Nov 07 26% Republicans 19% 74 8 19 February 2009 Polling was conducted by telephone February 17-18, 2009, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Results are

More information

Appendix: Some voting scenarios to think about

Appendix: Some voting scenarios to think about Appendix: Some voting scenarios to think about Scenario 1 In an election to select 1 representative for a constituency, there are 3 candidates and 100 voters. Each voter casts one vote, as follows: Red

More information

J Street National Post-Election Survey

J Street National Post-Election Survey J Street National Post-Election Survey November 6, 2012 800 Jewish Voters Q.2 First of all, are you currently registered to vote? Yes... 100 No... - (ref:votereg) Q.3 As you may know, there was an election

More information

Experiencing the Presidential Nomination Process: Caucuses and Iowa s Role

Experiencing the Presidential Nomination Process: Caucuses and Iowa s Role Experiencing the Presidential Nomination Process: Caucuses and Iowa s Role NCSS Thematic Strand: Civic Ideals and Practices Grade Level: 9-12 Class Periods Required: 1-50 minute class period Purpose/Background/Context:

More information

Frustrated with Congress, Americans See More Gridlock July 18-22, 2013

Frustrated with Congress, Americans See More Gridlock July 18-22, 2013 CBS News Poll For release: Wednesday, July 24, 2013 6:30 PM ET Frustrated with Congress, Americans See More Gridlock July 18-22, 2013 76% of Americans now disapprove of Congress; 59% say they are frustrated

More information

Chapter 08 - Political Parties

Chapter 08 - Political Parties Chapter 08 - Political Parties The state of the political parties is a matter of constant concern for the media. Even when an election is relatively far off, commentators obsessively assess the relative

More information