The real mandate and looking forward after this election. November 15, 2012

Transcription

1 The real mandate and looking forward after this election November 15, 2012

2 2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on several post-election surveys conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. This presentation mainly is based on a survey of 1, presidential voters (1000 weighted) nationwide for Democracy Corps and Campaign for America s Future, conducted from November 6-7, 2012 the night of and night after the election. This presentation also incorporates results from other post-election surveys conducted by Democracy Corps for Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund, Economy Media Project, and Human Rights Campaign. Survey results were weighted to reflect the National Exit Survey. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence.

3 The changing American electorate 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 3

4 *Note: Survey Results Reflect Estimates From Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls. 4 RAE nearly half the 2012 electorate Percent of the Electorate Rising American Electorate Unmarried women Youth African Americans Hispanics

5 By holding the Rising American Electorate, Obama held the White House *Note: 2008 results reflect the findings of the combined WVWV/CAF/RR/DCOR post-election results. 5 Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? Obama Romney Obama McCain Obama Romney Obama McCain Obama Romney Rising American Electorate Non-Rising American Electorate

6 The election was a battle for the middle class 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 6

7 The pervasive party brand context Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. President Congress Parties Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 54.3 Mean: 48.3 Mean: 46.8 Mean: 41.7 Mean: 49.8 Mean: 44.8 Net: +10 Net: +2 Net: -5 Net: -13 Net: +1 Net: Barack Obama Mitt Romney Democrats in Congress Republican Congress Democratic Party Republican Party *Note: From combined Democracy Corps National Post Election surveys, November

8 Election battle for middle class: Obama won it Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or the Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue Restoring the middle class Obama much better Romney much better Restoring the middle class Obama Romney *Note: From combined Democracy Corps National Post Election surveys, November

9 Jobs, retirement top among Obama and swing voters; debt and deficit concerns come entirely from Romney voters Both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney said in their campaigns that this election is about the future of the middle class. That was the big choice. Now, that the election is over, which THREE of the following are the most important things for us to focus on? Creating jobs and getting the economy going Certain Obama voters Wavering Obama voters Romney voters Percent saying most important thing (top 3) Protecting middle class retirement benefits including Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security Certain Obama voters Wavering Obama voters Romney voters Investing more in education and training Certain Obama voters Wavering Obama voters Romney voters Reducing the federal deficit and lowering debt for future generations Certain Obama voters Wavering Obama voters Romney voters *Note: From combined Democracy Corps National Post Election surveys, November

10 Defeating austerity and entitlement cuts 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 10

11 Investment preferred to austerity for long term Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements about the health care reform law. After I read them, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. We should avoid immediate drastic cuts in spending, and instead, we need serious investments that create jobs and make us more prosperous in the long term that will reduce our debt, too. The only way to restore prosperity and market confidence is to dramatically reduce government spending and our long-term deficits. Serious investments strongly +9 Reduce spending/deficits strongly Serious investments Reduce spending/deficits *Note: From Democracy Corps National Post Election Survey with the Economy Media Project, November 6-7,

12 Mandate from election: jobs and protecting Medicare much more than deficits Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Given where our economy is, we should invest now in infrastructure, education and technology, and re-hiring teachers and firefighters to get people back to work to make our country stronger in the long-term. Given where our economy is, we should cut government spending and reduce the federal deficit that weighs down our economy and give confidence to businesses to invest and create jobs. Given where our economy is, we should do everything we can to help the middle class, and that means protecting Medicare and Social Security. Given where our economy is, we should cut government spending and reduce the federal deficit that weighs down our economy and give confidence to businesses to invest and create jobs. +9 Strongly Strongly Invest now Cut spending/deficit Help middle class Cut spending/deficit *Note: From Democracy Corps National Post Election Survey with the Economy Media Project, November 6-7,

13 Almost two-thirds say bi-partisan deficit deal must raise taxes As you may know, there is a possibility there will be a grand bi-partisan bargain to reduce the deficit over 10 years by 4 trillion dollars. The 4 trillion dollar package of deficit reduction would have to include some amount of new revenue and cuts in spending. What, in your mind, are the right amounts? 62% 40% Almost 2/3 want some tax increases 40% want ½ or more tax increases All tax revenue increases and no spending cuts 2/3 increases, 1/3 cuts Half and half 2/3 cuts, 1/3 increases All spending cuts and no tax revenue increases *Note: From Democracy Corps National Post Election Survey with the Economy Media Project, November 6-7,

14 Voters look for cooperation 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 14

15 Voters want Republicans in Congress to work with President Obama Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. If Barack Obama is elected, Republicans in Congress should work with him to achieve his plans. If Barack Obama is elected, he will lead the country down the wrong path and Republicans in Congress should oppose his plans. Asked on Election Night Republicans in Congress should work with Barack Obama to achieve his plans. Barack Obama will lead the country down the wrong path and Republicans in Congress should oppose his plans. Asked night after Election Night Strongly Strongly Work with Obama Oppose his plans Work with Obama Oppose his plans *Note: From Democracy Corps National Post Election Survey with Campaign for America s Future, November 6-7,

16 6 in 10 independents want Republicans in Congress to work with Obama Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Republicans in Congress should work with Barack Obama to achieve his plans. Barack Obama will lead the country down the wrong path and Republicans in Congress should oppose his plans Combined data from both nights Strongly Strongly Work with Obama 27 Oppose his plans Work with Obama 6 5 Oppose his plans Work with Obama 27 Oppose his plans 23 Work with Obama *Note: From Democracy Corps National Post Election Survey with Campaign for America s Future, November 6-7, Oppose his plans TOTAL DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS 16

17 Voters desire for cooperation nearing 2008 levels when Obama had strong mandate for change Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Republicans should give Barack Obama the benefit of the doubt and help him achieve his plans. Barack Obama will lead the country down the wrong path and Republicans should oppose his plans Strongly Strongly Republicans in Congress should work with Barack Obama to achieve his plans. Barack Obama will lead the country down the wrong path and Republicans in Congress should oppose his plans. Combined data from both nights Work with Obama Oppose his plans Work with Obama Oppose his plans Work with Obama *Note: From prior Democracy Corps National Post Election Surveys, 2008 and Slight question wording change in Oppose his plans 17

18 Intense negativity toward PACs across all parties Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Super PACs Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 26.6 Mean: 24.0 Mean: 22.5 Mean: 33.3 Net: -37 Net: -42 Net: -47 Net: ALL VOTERS DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS *Note: From Democracy Corps National Post Election Survey with Public Campaign Action Fund, November 6-7,

19 Driven by huge amounts of spending in campaign more than a quarter saying it was bad for democracy How would you characterize the level of advertising by the campaigns and outside groups in this election? 61%: Negative impact 71%: More Advertising More and unhealthy for our democracy More, harder to hear different points of view More, and I tuned out More, but helpful to hear points of view About normal Less than normal *Note: From Democracy Corps National Post Election Survey with Public Campaign Action Fund, November 6-7,

20 What does influence? Alarming number say elected officials beholden to special interests Now I'm going to read you some various people and organizations that might influence how members of Congress vote. Of the following, which TWO do you think have the most influence on how members of Congress vote? Percent saying most influential (top 2) Of the following, which two do you think have the MOST influence on how members of Congress vote? Special interest groups and lobbyists Campaign contributors Party leaders The media Views of their constituents Their own conscience *Note: From Democracy Corps National Post Election Survey with Public Campaign Action Fund, November 6-7,

21 Negative view of influence on Congress cuts across party lines, whether voted for Democratic or Republican representative Now I'm going to read you some various people and organizations that might influence how members of Congress vote. Of the following, which TWO do you think have the most influence on how members of Congress vote? Special interest groups and lobbyists 60 Special interest groups and lobbyists 58 Campaign contributors 46 Campaign contributors 45 Party leaders 28 Party leaders 29 The media 26 The media 33 Views of their constituents 14 Views of their constituents 15 Their own conscience 13 Voted for Cong. Democrat Their own conscience 11 Voted for Cong. Republican *Note: From Democracy Corps National Post Election Survey with Public Campaign Action Fund, November 6-7,

22 Uniform desire across parties to see transparency on spending from outside groups Require corporations, unions, and non-profit groups to disclose their sources of spending when they participate in elections Support Oppose Support Oppose Support Oppose Support Oppose ALL VOTERS DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS *Note: From Democracy Corps National Post Election Survey with Public Campaign Action Fund, November 6-7,

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