How unmarried women, youth and people of color defined this election. November 8, 2012

Transcription

1 How unmarried women, youth and people of color defined this election November 8, 2012

2 2 Methodology and Specifications This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. The survey of 1001 likely 2012 voters nationwide was conducted from November 5-7, Survey results weighted to reflect National Exit Survey. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence.

3 The Rising American Electorate (RAE) includes unmarried women, people of color, and those under the age of 30. In total, they comprise the majority (53%) of the November 15, 2011 voting eligible population. Unmarried women are the largest segment of this group and drive its composition. 111 million eligible voters (52.8% of all eligible voters) are in the RAE Latino 21 million 5.7 m Latina unmarried women Unmarried 53 million 17.3 m young unmarried women Youth 45 million Other 12m 9.7 m AA unmarried women African American 25 million Source: 2010 CPS/November CPS supplements on voting and registration

4 By Holding the RAE, Obama Held the White House Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? Obama Romney Obama McCain Obama Romney Obama McCain Obama Romney Rising American Electorate Non-Rising American Electorate *Note: 2008 results reflect the findings of the combined WVWV/CAF/RR/DCOR post-election results. 4

5 *Note: Survey Results Reflect Estimates From Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls. 5 RAE Nearly Half the 2012 Electorate Percent of the Electorate Rising American Electorate Unmarried women Youth African Americans Hispanics

6 *Note: 2008 results come from Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls. 6 Obama Holds Unmarried and Grows Hispanic Support Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? Obama McCain Obama Romney Obama McCain Obama Romney Obama McCain Obama Romney Youth (18-29) Unmarried Hispanics

7 *Note: Survey Results Reflect Estimates From Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls. 7 Gender Gap is Big, but Marriage Gap is Huge Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? Gender Gap: 18 Marriage Gap: Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Men Married Unmarried

8 *Note: 2008 results reflect the findings of the combined WVWV/CAF/RR/DCOR post-election results, 8 Congressional Democrats Rebound from 2010 Among Unmarried Now let me ask you about the election for Congress, did you vote for -- (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? Marriage Gap: Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Married Unmarried Married Unmarried Married Unmarried

9 9 Marriage Gap Dwarfs Gender Gap Last Three Elections Marriage Gap Gender Gap Nov-92 Nov-96 Nov-00 Nov-04 Nov-08 Nov-12

10 10 Huge Disparity in Personal Appeal Among RAE Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Barack Obama Mitt Romney Mean: 67.5 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 42.8 Mean: 40.0 Mean: 59.6 Net: Net: -14 Net: -18 Net: RAE Non-RAE RAE Non-RAE

11 11 Cultural Divide Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Planned Parenthood Gay Marriage Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Tea Party Mean: 69.6 Mean: 52 Mean: 55 Mean: 44.8 Mean: 36.8 Mean: 45.9 Net: Net: +8 Net: +13 Net: -9 Net: -22 Net: RAE Non-RAE RAE Non-RAE RAE Non-RAE

12 12 Republican Brand Problem with RAE Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Democrats in Congress Republican Congress Democratic Party Republican Party Net: +22 Net: -27 Net: -20 Net: +1 Net: +26 Net: -20 Net: -18 Net: RAE Non-RAE RAE Non-RAE RAE Non-RAE RAE Non-RAE

13 13 Ratings on new health care reform law have improved in recent months Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold The new health care reform law. Warm Cool Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12

14 14 Favorable Reaction to Healthcare Among RAE voters Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Mean: 53.7 Net: The New Health Care Reform Law Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 34.0 Net: RAE 60 Non-RAE

15 #1 reason people voted for Obama brought us through economic crisis Now let me read you a list of reasons to support Barack Obama. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Barack Obama? Took out Osama bin Laden and ended wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Respect him as a leader Leadership and National Security Passed Affordable Health Care Act for all Will protect Medicare and Social Security from cuts Social Insurance Brought America through the economic crisis and needs more time 39 His jobs plan for American energy, auto efficiency, infrastructure and more teachers Will get millionaires to pay higher taxes and pay their fair share Economic Action Rescued U.S. auto industry 13 For Planned Parenthood, preventive health care and pay equity for women Stood up for minorities and equal rights, like the Dream Act Support and Minorities

16 s Narrative a Leading Reason to Support President among Unmarried Now let me read you a list of reasons to support Barack Obama. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Barack Obama? Total RAE Unmarried Brought America through the economic crisis and needs more time Passed Affordable Health Care Act for all Took out Osama bin Laden and ended wars in Iraq and Afghanistan For Planned Parenthood, preventive health care and pay equity for women Will protect Medicare and Social Security from cuts Respect him as a leader His jobs plan for American energy, auto efficiency, infrastructure and more teachers Stood up for minorities and equal rights, like the Dream Act Will get millionaires to pay higher taxes and pay fair share Rescued U.S. auto industry Could not vote for Romney

17 Romney vote from jobs and economic plans, as well as cutting spending Now let me read you a list reasons to support Mitt Romney. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Mitt Romney? Successful businessman who knows how to manage and create jobs Plan to expand offshore oil drilling, coal, and natural gas on federal lands Plan to cut taxes across the board Economic plans Will protect small businesses from taxes and regulation 16 Compassionate and religious man Worked with both Democrats and Republicans Leadership qualities Plan to cut spending and reduce national debt 37 Will repeal Obamacare Ending culture of dependency by cutting food stamps and welfare Government and spending Will tackle reform of Medicare and Social Security 13 I don't want four more years of Barack Obama

18 Anti-Obama Vote Driven by Concern with Growing Deficit and Size of Government Let me read you a list of doubts about Barack Obama. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Barack Obama? America less respected under Obama America would not be the same if Obama had second term Weakened America Increased deficit and size of government Obamacare Cut Medicare by 700 billion dollars to pay for a health reform plan no one wanted Hurt small businesses with taxes and regulations Bailed out big banks while doing nothing to help homeowners Paid off union supporters in the auto bailout and failed clean-energy projects Government and Spending His economic plans failed 22 Economy Failed to change Washington and break gridlock 15 Gridlock Support for abortion rights

19 Voted against Romney because out-of-touch and for the rich above all Let me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney? With the rich and out of touch with average people 28 His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent" Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors Would repeal Obamacare For rich and out of touch Threats to Social Insurance Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington Being against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan Leadership Qualities Foreign Policy 19

20 s Narrative Hurts Romney Among Unmarried Let me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney? Total RAE Unmarried Being against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent" With the rich and out of touch with average people Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash Would repeal Obamacare Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan

21 Agenda Moving Forward Now that Barack Obama has won another term in office and we have a Republican Congress, which two or three of the following do you believe should be the first priority of Congress and the President: Total RAE Unmarried Invest in education, including hiring 100,000 more teachers, more Pell Grants for college and investing in early childhood education Protect Social Security and Medicare from significant cuts Support a grand bargain to reduce the deficit where Democrats agree to cuts in spending and Republicans agree to tax increases for the wealthy Invest in an "all of the above" energy strategy that exploits domestic oil, gas and coal, but also expands new, clean energy like wind, solar and bio-fuels. Pass a new jobs bill that increases exports and rebuilds roads, bridges and economic infrastructure Crack down on companies that pay women LESS money if they perform THE SAME job as their male colleagues Raise taxes on top earners to help reduce the deficit and pay for important programs Fully implement the health care reform law Protect Planned Parenthood and women's health care choices, including the right to choose to have an abortion Protect programs for the vulnerable, including food stamps and Medicaid

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