National Security and the 2008 Election

Transcription

1 Click to edit Master title style April 3, 2008 National Security and the 2008 Election Democracy Corps Fourth and level Greenberg Quinlan Rosner March 25-27, likely voters nationwide

2 Click to edit Master title style Country Ready for Change Page 2 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

3 70 10 Click Nearly to three edit Master quarters title think style country headed in wrong direction Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Katrina Click to edit 55 Master text styles Second 37 level Fourth 34 level Election Iraq surge Right direction Petraeus Report Dec-04 May-05 Oct-05 Mar-06 Aug-06 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Wrong direction Net Difference Page 3 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

4 Click Bush to job edit approval Master title disapproval style worsens to highest ever Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president? Click 46 to 46 edit 46 Master text styles Approve Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Net +5 Difference Katrina 2006 Iraq Surge Election Petraeus Report Disapprove Page 4 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

5 Click Bush to personal edit Master favorability title style favorable feelings lowest ever Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. Cool Warm Katrina Click to edit Master text 48 styles Iraq Surge Petraeus Report Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Net Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several months. Page 5 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

6 Click to edit Master title style The Presidential Election Page 6 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

7 Click The presidential to edit Master vote: title generic style contest I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the election in 2008, if the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? 70 New Congress Republican Democrat Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Net Difference Page 7 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

8 Click to edit Master title style The Congressional Race Page 8 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

9 60 50 Click Democrats to edit hold Master steady title lead style in named congressional vote Thinking about the election for Congress in 2008, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate*? New Congress Third 43 level Democratic candidate Republican candidate Jan- 07 Feb- 07 Mar- 07 Apr- 07 May- 07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov- 07 Dec- 07 Jan- 08 Feb- 08 Mar- 08 Apr- 08 Net Difference Page 9 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner *Note: Actual names of incumbents inserted, and a generic candidate was inserted for the opposing party

10 Click to edit Master title style National Security Page 10 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

11 Which Click to party edit better Master on title foreign style policy Democrats Republicans Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08

12 Which Click to party edit better Master on title striking style right balance on foreign/domestic policy 60 Democrats Republicans Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08

13 Which Click to party edit Master associated title with stylethe phrase Now I d like to ask you which party you associate more with these terms when it comes to national security the Democrats or the Republicans. Associate with Republicans Associate with Democrats Net Work for democracy and human rights Click to edit Extreme Master text styles Stand up for Americans Second in global trade leveland commerce Reckless Patriotic Weak Not decisive in a crisis Respect the military

14 Which Click to party edit Master associated title with stylethe phrase Now I d like to ask you which party you associate more with these terms when it comes to national security the Democrats or the Republicans. Associate with Republicans Associate with Democrats Net Work for democracy and human rights Click to edit Extreme Master text styles Stand up for Americans Second in global trade leveland commerce Reckless Patriotic Weak Not decisive in a crisis Respect the military

15 Democrats Click to edit improved Master title on style National Security measures Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. Republicans Better Democrats Better Net Change from 2003 Improving global respect for America na Striking the right balance between foreign and domestic issues 32 The situation in Iraq Foreign policy The war on terrorism na +17 na National security Protecting America and its people Ensuring a strong military na

16 Which Click to party edit better Master on title national style security Democrats Republicans Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08

17 Democrats Click to edit improved Master title on style National Security measures Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. Republicans Better Democrats Better Net Change from 2003 Improving global respect for America na Striking the right balance between foreign and domestic issues 32 The situation in Iraq Foreign policy The war on terrorism na +17 na National security Protecting America and its people Ensuring a strong military na

18 Six Click in to ten edit Americans Master title hold style unfavorable feelings toward war Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold Third level Election Katrina Iraq Surge Cool Petraeus Report Warm Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Net Difference Page 18 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

19 More Click worry to edit Republicans Master title style will stay too long in Iraq I'm more concerned that the Republicans w ill w ait too long to w ithdraw our troops from Iraq I'm more concerned that the Democrats w ill leave Iraq too quickly Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Net Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several months.

20 Which Click to party edit Master associated title with stylethe phrase Now I d like to ask you which party you associate more with these terms when it comes to national security the Democrats or the Republicans. Associate with Republicans Associate with Democrats Net Work for democracy and human rights Click to edit Extreme Master text styles Stand up for Americans Second in global trade leveland commerce Reckless Patriotic Weak Not decisive in a crisis Respect the military

21 Click to edit Master title style 1. Take the Offensive Page 21 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

22 Click John McCain to edit Master on national title style security John McCain says: I have been involved in every national security issue over the past 20 years, and having served this country, I know how important our security is. Hillary Clinton has flip-flopped on Iraq, and now would run up Click the white to edit flag Master of surrender text styles in Iraq, pulling out our troops, handing al Qaeda a victory, and endangering our vital interests. I was the leading supporter of the surge, which is now succeeding, and I will press for victory in Iraq. Fifth I will level also strengthen our military, restructure our intelligence agencies, and build missile defenses to protect us from rogue regimes like Iran.

23 Click to edit Master title style 2. Tie McCain to Bush s Policies Page 23 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

24 Click McCain to edit seen Master a continuation title style of Bush s foreign policy As President, John McCain would mostly continue the national security and foreign policies of President Bush As President, John McCain would mostly bring a different approach than President Bush to our national security and foreign policies

25 Click to edit Master title style 3. Stress Iraq Page 25 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

26 Click Surge to viewed edit Master a mistake title style The decision in 2006 to have a surge in American troops in Iraq was a mistake, because it cost us more money and lives, produced no real Iraqi political progress, and leaves us there indefinitely The decision in 2006 to have a surge in American troops in Iraq produced positive results, like setbacks for the terrorists, fewer US casualties, and Iraqi progress on solving their political issues

27 Click to edit Master title style Need to start reducing troops in Iraq We need to start reducing the number of U.S. troops in Iraq We must stay the course to achieve stability and finish the job in Iraq

28 Click to edit Master title style 4. Stress the Economic Dimension Page 28 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

29 Click to edit Master title style Priorities argument Hillary Clinton says: America's security depends on strength at home as well as abroad. We cannot go on spending billions on a failed policy in Iraq when our economy is floundering -- I will set our priorities straight and redirect more of our foreign spending on education and health care. John McCain says: America is at war in two countries, and waging a long-term fight against violent extremists who despise us and our values -- as president I will never short-change our security -- I will do whatever it takes to win this struggle and protect our people.

30 Click to edit Master title style 5. Stress Energy Page 30 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

31 Dependence Click to edit Master on foreign title oil, style nuclear weapons in hands of terrorists seen as greatest security threats Now I am going to read you a list of threats that some people say America faces. Please tell me which TWO of these you personally consider to be the biggest threats to America's security? America's dependence on foreign oil Terrorists obtaining nuclear, chemical, or biological materials Terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists Second China's level military build-up Global warming The war in Iraq Dangerous regimes like Iran and North Korea Resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan US failure to achieve victory in Iraq 7 11 Page 31 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

32 Click to edit Master title style 6. The Frame: Strengthening Security Page 32 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

33 Click Clinton and edit Obama: Master title Priorities style Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama says: We need a change of priorities in our policies abroad. George Bush failed to stand up for American workers on trade and oil, and his failed policies in Iraq cost us trillions of dollars and thousands of lives. John McCain was Bush's biggest supporter on Iraq, and would keep our troops there for 100 years. As president, I will start bringing our troops home from Iraq during my first 60 days, direct more of that spending to our needs at home, insist on labor protections in our trade agreements, and support alternative energy to reduce our dependence on oil from dangerous Click to edit regimes. Master text styles John McCain Second says: I level have been involved in every national security issue over the past Third 20 years, level and having served this country, I know how important our security is. Barack Obama seems hesitant to stand up for America, and Fourth would level run up the white flag of surrender in Iraq, pulling out our troops, handing Fifth al level Qaeda a victory, and endangering our vital interests. I was the leading supporter of the surge, which is now succeeding, and I will press for victory in Iraq. I will also strengthen our military, restructure our intelligence agencies, and build missile defenses to protect us from rogue regimes like Iran. Clinton/Obama statement beats McCain statement by average of +8

34 Click Clinton and edit Obama: Master title Strengthen style America s Security Barack Obama says: We cannot afford more of the reckless, extreme national security policies of the Bush years that lost us trillions of dollars and thousands of lives in Iraq. But John McCain was Bush's biggest supporter on Iraq and says he is willing to keep our troops there for 100 years. I would strengthen America's security by bringing home our troops from Iraq during 2009, doing what we need to win in Afghanistan, rebuilding our alliances, and pursuing a new alternative energy policy, including alternative sources, to reduce our dependence on oil from dangerous regimes. Hillary Clinton says: We cannot afford more of the reckless, extreme national security Second policies level of the Bush years that lost us trillions of dollars and thousands of Third lives level in Iraq. But John McCain was Bush's biggest supporter on Iraq and says he is willing to keep our troops there for 100 years. I would strengthen America's Fourth level security by starting to bring our troops home from Iraq during my first Fifth 60 level days, doing what we need to win in Afghanistan, rebuilding our alliances, and pursuing a new alternative energy policy, including alternative sources, to reduce our dependence on oil from dangerous regimes. Clinton/Obama statement beats McCain statement by average of +9

35 Which Click to party edit Master associated title with stylethe phrase Now I d like to ask you which party you associate more with these terms when it comes to national security the Democrats or the Republicans. Associate with Republicans Associate with Democrats Net Work for democracy and human rights Click to edit Extreme Master text styles Stand up for Americans Second in global trade leveland commerce Reckless Patriotic Weak Not decisive in a crisis Respect the military

36 Click to edit Master title style 7. Strengthen the Military Connection Page 36 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

37 Click to edit Master title style Concern about Democrats reluctance to use force I would be more worried about John McCain as president being too willing to use military force abroad I would be more worried about Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama as president being too reluctant to use military force abroad

38 Click to edit Master title style Washington, DC 10 G Street NE, Suite 0 Washington, DC California 50 California Street, Suite 1500 San Francisco, CA London, UK 5 Carrington House, 6 Hertford Street London, UK W1J 7SU Ph: Fax: Ph: Fax: Page 38 Ph: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Greenberg Quinlan Rosner