The race against John McCain

Transcription

1 April 22, 2008 The race against John McCain Democracy Corps April 15-17, likely voters nationwide

2 Change election Page 2

3 Nearly three quarters think country headed in wrong direction Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Katrina Iraq surge Election Right direction Petraeus Report Wrong direction Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Net Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last couple years. Page 3

4 The Presidential Election Page 4

5 The presidential generic vote: stable landslide I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the election in 2008, if the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? New Congress Republican New Hampshire Primary Democrat Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Net +13 Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last year and a half. Page 5

6 Named presidential vote is even match Now let me ask you again about your vote for president but with candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama/Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote? Democrat Republican Lean Democrat Lean Republican Clinton McCain Obama McCain Page 6

7 McCain/Clinton match-ups by party Now let me ask you again about your vote for president but with candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote? Clinton McCain Clinton McCain Clinton McCain Clinton McCain Democrats Independents Republicans Page 7

8 McCain/Obama match-ups by party Now let me ask you again about your vote for president but with candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote? Obama McCain Obama McCain Obama McCain Obama McCain Democrats Independents Republicans Page 8

9 Voter Choice Scales: parallel worlds 28 Democratic Non-Democratic Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable Republican Non-Republican Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable Page 9

10 Obama underperformers Now let me ask you again about your vote for president but with candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote? White non-college Democrats White older Democrats White Democratic women White conservative Democrats 20 White Democrats 18 Older non-college women White, irreg. mainline Christians White seniors *Note: From Democracy Corps combined national survey of 2,000 likely voters conducted March 25-27, 2008, and April 15-17, 2008.

11 Presidential Candidate Thermometers Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Cool Warm Net Hillary Clinton Barack Obama John McCain Bill Clinton Michelle Obama Page 11

12 Candidate Favorability Among Independents Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Cool Warm Net John McCain Barack Obama Hillary Clinton Page 12

13 Barack Obama thermometer cools Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold Cool New Hampshire Primary Warm Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Net Difference Page 13 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last year and a half.

14 Barack Obama favorability among independents Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Cool Warm Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Net Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last year and a half. Page 14

15 Hillary Clinton favorability lukewarm and stable Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold Election Cool Warm New Hampshire Primary Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Net Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several years. Page 15

16 John McCain favorability steady Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold Cool New Hampshire Primary 34 Warm Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Net Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last year and a half. Page 16

17 John McCain favorability among independents Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Cool Warm Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Net Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last year and a half. Page 17

18 Democrats maintain lead in congressional race Page 18

19 Named Congressional Vote Thinking about the election for Congress in 2008, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (Democratic incumbent/candidate) or (Republican incumbent/candidate)? Democratic candidate Republican candidate Lean Democratic Lean Republican Democratic candidate Total Republican candidate Democratic Candidate Republican candidate Democratic-held *Note: For each district, the incumbent s name was inserted, and a generic candidate ( the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate ) was inserted for the opposition. Democratic candidate Republican candidate Republican-held Page 19

20 Democrats hold steady lead in named congressional vote Thinking about the election for Congress in 2008, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate*? New Congress Democratic candidate Republican candidate Hampshire Primary New Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Net Difference *Note: Actual names of incumbents inserted, and a generic candidate was inserted for the opposing party Page 20

21 Democrats at 65 percent in Democratic-held districts Thinking about the election for Congress in 2008, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate*? New Congress Democratic candidate Republican candidate New Hampshire Primary Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Net Difference For each district, the incumbent s name was inserted, and a generic candidate ( the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate ) was inserted for the opposition. Page 21

22 Republican incumbents only at 50 percent of the vote Thinking about the election for Congress in 2008, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate*? New Congress Democratic candidate Republican candidate New Hampshire Primary Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Net Difference For each district, the incumbent s name was inserted, and a generic candidate ( the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate ) was inserted for the opposition Page 22

23 Democratic House members (named) viewed favorably Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. Cool Warm New Congress New Hampshire Primary Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Net +24 Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several years. Page 23

24 Republican House member (named) favorability sees slight uptick April 22, 2008 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. Cool Warm New Congress New Hampshire Primary Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Net +18 Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several years. Page 24

25 Image for Democratic Congress not great Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. New Congress Cool New Hampshire Primary Warm Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Net Difference -6 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several years. Page 25

26 Barack Obama Page 26

27 Regressions: Obama attributes predictive of vote, therm Attributes that drive initial vote: Will bring the right kind of change Odds Ratio = 3.06 Patriotic 2.29 Makes me feel hopeful about the future 2.23 Strong leader 2.23 Just too many questions to take a chance Attributes that drive Obama thermometer: Will keep America strong 2.02 Will bring the right kind of change 1.97 Honest and trustworthy 1.91 On your side 1.73 Makes me feel hopeful about the future 1.69 Page 27

28 Obama positive attributes Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Not Well Well Net Patriotic Honest and trustworthy Cares about people like you Strong leader Can unite the country Makes me feel hopeful about the future

29 Obama positive attributes Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Not Well Well Net Will keep American strong Will bring right kind of change On your side What it takes to be president Will keep America safe Right experience to be president

30 Obama negative attributes Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Not Well Well Net Too willing to withdraw from Iraq Will raise my taxes Too liberal Too many questions to take chance on him as president Thinks he's smarter than everyone else Too reluctant to use military force

31 John McCain Page 31

32 Regressions: McCain attributes predictive of vote, therm Attributes that drive initial vote: Will bring the right kind of change Odds Ratio = 2.46 Will stay in Iraq too long Too eager to go to war 1.42 Will keep America safe 1.41 Attributes that drive McCain thermometer: Will bring the right kind of change 2.07 Will keep America strong 1.90 Cares about people like you 1.71 Honest and trustworthy 1.61 On your side 1.47

33 John McCain positive attributes Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes John McCain very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Not Well Well Net Strong leader Will keep America safe Honest and trustworthy Independent Will keep America strong Cares about people like you On your side Will bring right kind of change

34 John McCain negative attributes Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes John McCain very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Not Well Well Net Will stay in Iraq too long Supports big corp. intrsts not public intrst Too eager to go to war Part of mess in Washington Too cozy with lobbyists Too hotheaded Flip-flops on important issues His age concerns me

35 Obama versus McCain on issues and values Page 35

36 Regressions: Better Jobs measures predictive of vote, therms Better Jobs measures that drive initial vote: Bringing the right kind of change 2.21 Making you feel hopeful about the future 2.17 The situation in Iraq 1.93 Being in your side 1.68 Breaking the gridlock in Washington 1.58 Better Jobs measures that drive Obama thermometer: The economy 1.75 Sharing your values 1.73 The situation in Iraq 1.73 Making you feel hopeful about the future 1.46 Better Jobs measures that drive McCain thermometer: Taxes 1.48 Bringing the right kind of change 1.44 Foreign policy 1.41 Cleaning up the mess in Washington 1.30 April 22, 2008

37 Obama v. McCain who would do a better job with? Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or John McCain would do a better job with this issue: John McCain Barack Obama Net Making sure gov't works for middle class Breaking gridlock in Washington Bringing right kind of change Standing up to pwrfl spcl intrsts in Washington Making me hopeful about the future Making gov't more accountable Getting country moving again Cleaning up mess in gov't The economy

38 Obama v. McCain Who would do a better job with? Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or John McCain would do a better job with this issue: John McCain Barack Obama Net Wrkng w/ both parties to get things done Being on your side Sharing your values The federal budget and spending Taxes The situation in Iraq Foreign policy National security

39 Iraq opportunity Page 39

40 Iraq War thermometer back to low point Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold Election Election Surge 56 Cool 60 Warm Petraeus Report Petraeus Report # Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Net Difference Page 40 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several years.

41 Republicans too slow to leave Iraq the bigger concern Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right: Statement 1: I'm more concerned that the Republicans will wait too long to withdraw our troops from Iraq Statement 2: I'm more concerned that the Democrats will leave Iraq too quickly. First statement not so strongly First statement strongly Second statement not so strongly Second statement strongly I'm more concerned that the Republicans will wait too long to withdraw our troops from Iraq. I'm more concerned that the Democrats will leave Iraq too quickly. Page 41

42 Worry Republicans will stay too long Now I m going to read you some statements. Please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right: I'm more concerned that the Republicans w ill w ait too long to w ithdraw our troops from Iraq I'm more concerned that the Democrats w ill leave Iraq too quickly Petraeus Report Petraeus Report # Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 Net Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several months.

43 Large majority start reducing troops not stay until stable Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right: Statement 1: We need to start reducing the number of U.S. troops in Iraq. Statement 2: We must stay the course to achieve stability and finish the job in Iraq First statement strongly Second statement strongly First statement not so strongly Second statement not so strongly Reduce number of troops Stay the course Reduce number of troops Stay the course March 2008* April 2008 *Note: From Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted nationally March 25-27, Page 43

44 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Iraq priorities debate (positive) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Barack Obama says: Bush's failed policies in Iraq cost us trillions of dollars and thousands of lives. I will bring our troops home from Iraq during 2009, direct more of that spending to our needs at home, and reduce our dependence on oil from dangerous regimes. OR John McCain says: I was the leading supporter of the surge, which has caused a dramatic reduction in violence in Iraq. We are no longer looking at defeat, but now see the genuine prospect of a stable, democratic state that poses no threat to its neighbors and contributes to the defeat of terrorists. Page 44

45 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Iraq security debate (positive) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement somewhat McCain statement somewhat Obama statement McCain statement Page 45

46 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Iraq priorities debate (negative) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Barack Obama says: We need a change of priorities in our policies abroad. John McCain has given Bush a blank check for Iraq, where we are spending over 2 billion dollars a week. McCain's commitment to stay in Iraq would cost a trillion dollars over his term in office. OR John McCain says: Having served this country, I know how important our security is. Senator Obama's promise to withdraw from Iraq, regardless of the consequences to our most vital interests and the future of the Middle East, is the height of irresponsibility. It is a failure of leadership. Page 46

47 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Iraq priorities (negative) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement somewhat McCain statement somewhat Obama statement McCain statement Page 47

48 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Iraq extreme debate (negative) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Barack Obama says: We cannot afford more of Bush's reckless policies, but Senator McCain was Bush's biggest supporter on the war and says he wants to send even more troops to Iraq. He rejects diplomacy and says there will be, quote, "more wars" with countries like Iran. OR John McCain says: Having served this country, I know how important our security is. Senator Obama's promise to withdraw from Iraq, regardless of the consequences to our most vital interests and the future of the Middle East, is the height of irresponsibility. It is a failure of leadership. Page 48

49 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Iraq extreme (negative) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement somewhat McCain statement somewhat Obama statement McCain statement Page 49

50 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Experience vs. Judgment Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Barack Obama says: The most important thing is not how many years you've spent in Washington, but what kind of judgment you've shown on important issues. On the most important issue of our generation, Senator McCain supported George Bush's war in Iraq and still thinks it was the right decision. I did not. OR John McCain says: I have been involved in every national security issue over the past 20 years, and I was one of the first to criticize our failed policy in Iraq. Because of my experience I know how to keep our country safe. Senator Obama has demonstrated he is too naïve to protect our country. Page 50

51 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Experience vs. Judgment Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement somewhat McCain statement somewhat Obama statement McCain statement Page 51

52 Changing Washington Page 52

53 Current leaders seen as the problem in Washington Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right: Statement 1: The government in Washington is making a mess of things because of what our current leaders have been doing Statement 2: The government in Washington is making a mess of things because government always makes a mess of things. First statement not so strongly First statement strongly Second statement not so strongly Second statement strongly The government in Washington is making a mess of things because of what our current leaders have been doing. The government in Washington is making a mess of things because government always makes a mess of things. Page 53

54 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Special interests (positive) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Barack Obama says: I am the only candidate who doesn't take money from lobbyists and as president I will end their stranglehold by closing the revolving door between government and K-Street and requiring Congress to make all of their earmarks and corporate tax breaks public. OR John McCain says: The taxpayers' money should not be squandered on wasteful pet projects. As president, I will reform Washington by ending earmarks and pork barrel spending so we can end the practice of deficit spending that robs the American people of their right to responsible government. Page 54

55 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Special interests (positive) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement somewhat McCain statement somewhat Obama statement McCain statement Page 55

56 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Special interests debate (negative) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Barack Obama says: Washington is a place where good ideas go to die because of the corrupting influence of lobbyists. Senator McCain can't change the system because he's taken millions from lobbyists and special interests and 11 of his top aides are corporate lobbyists. OR John McCain says: Senator Obama can't be trusted to clean up Washington because his long-time backer Tony Rezko is on trial for corruption. Prosecutors argue that Rezko directed part of an illegal "finder's fee" to Obama's campaign. Yet, Obama refuses to answer questions about his ties to Rezko. Page 56

57 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Special interests debate (negative) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement somewhat McCain statement somewhat Obama statement McCain statement Page 57

58 Economy Page 58

59 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Economy message (positive) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Barack Obama says: As president, I will cut taxes on the middle class, end tax breaks for companies that outsource and give them to businesses that create jobs at home, develop new energy sources, and invest in education to develop the jobs of tomorrow. OR John McCain says: As president, I will reduce the size of government, get spending under control, end pork-barrel spending, and enact a pro-growth tax policy that reduces taxes for the middle class and entrepreneurs who are the engine of our economy. Page 59

60 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Economy message (positive) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement somewhat McCain statement somewhat Obama statement McCain statement Page 60

61 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Economy message (negative) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Barack Obama says: Senator McCain insists that the fundamentals of our economy remain strong. His plan would expand the Bush tax cuts for corporations, companies that outsource jobs and the wealthy, but do virtually nothing for the middle class OR John McCain says: Senator Obama supports a trillion dollar tax plan that has been called, quote, "the mother of all tax increases" and wants to spend 1.4 trillion dollars on his socialized healthcare plan and other social programs. His plan would slow economic growth and job creation. Page 61

62 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Economy message (negative) Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement somewhat McCain statement somewhat Obama statement McCain statement Page 62

63 Health care debate Page 63

64 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Healthcare debate Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Barack Obama says: I will fundamentally reform our system by guaranteeing that every American has affordable health insurance and can never be denied coverage. Under Senator McCain's plan 20 million Americans who get their health care through work would lose their coverage and be forced to buy insurance directly from the insurance companies. OR John McCain says: I will enhance quality and control costs in our health care system by promoting competition and providing families a five thousand dollar credit so they can lower their costs in the private market. Senator Obama's government-run plan will mean higher taxes for American families, a "one-sizefits all" approach, and waiting lists like they have in France Page 64

65 Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Healthcare Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. As I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement somewhat McCain statement somewhat Obama statement McCain statement Page 65

66 Attacks on Obama Page 66

67 Top Obama Doubts Let me read you a series of statements about Democrat Barack Obama. For each statement, please tell me whether this description, if accurate, raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts in your own mind about Democrat Barack Obama At a recent public event, Obama didn't cover his heart during the national anthem. Obama's wife says she has never been proud of America and Obama refuses to disassociate himself with his pastor and mentor who says that blacks should sing, quote "God Damn America," instead of God Bless America. Obama supports a trillion dollar tax plan that has been called "the mother of all tax increases" and will be the largest tax increase in American history. He wants to repeal the Bush tax cuts and raise the Social Security tax by another trillion dollars. Obama's tax increases will damage the economy and hurt the pocketbooks of average Americans at the worst possible time. Obama says Jeremiah Wright, his long-time pastor, is his biggest mentor. But Wright is a hateful and unpatriotic anti-semite. He once gave an award for, quote, "greatness" to Louis Farrakhan. He says that America is to blame for the AIDS virus, that we are a, quote, "white supremacist" country and even that we brought the nine-eleven attacks upon ourselves. Very Serious Page 67 Total Serious

68 Obama Doubt Second Tier Let me read you a series of statements about Democrat Barack Obama. For each statement, please tell me whether this description, if accurate, raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts in your own mind about Democrat Barack Obama Obama's father was a Muslim and he grew up in the world's most populous Islamic country. At a recent public event he didn't cover his heart during the national anthem. Obama's wife says she has never been proud of America and his pastor and mentor even says that blacks should sing, quote "God Damn America," instead of God Bless America. Obama says that people in small towns are bitter and, quote "cling to guns or religion as a way to explain their frustrations." But hard-working Americans aren't bitter. They love their country, their faith, their traditions and their culture. Obama is a liberal elitist who looks down on regular Americans who didn't get the Ivy League education he did. Very Serious Total Serious Page 68

69 Attacks on McCain Page 69

70 Top McCain Doubts Let me read you a series of statements about Republican John McCain. For each statement, please tell me whether this description, if accurate, raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts in your own mind about Republican John McCain. Incomes have not risen for most Americans in seven years while prices have skyrocketed and the economy is losing jobs. Yet McCain says we are better off than we were eight years ago. He insists we are not facing a recession and that the fundamentals of our economy remain strong. He even says the problems Americans are facing are, quote, "psychological." The war in Iraq costs taxpayers 12 billion dollars a month - more than a trillion dollars so far. With our economy in recession, jobs headed overseas and gas prices skyrocketing, we could be using that money to rebuild our schools and roads, invest in alternative energy and create jobs. But McCain's commitment to a blank check in Iraq would cost another trillion dollars over his term in office. McCain's health care plan would undermine our entire employer-based system. Under his plan 20 million Americans who get their health care through work would lose their coverage and be forced to buy insurance directly from the insurance companies. But McCain would also give insurance companies more power to deny coverage or boost premiums if your needs threaten their profits. Very Serious Total Serious

71 McCain Doubts Second Tier Let me read you a series of statements about Republican John McCain. For each statement, please tell me whether this description, if accurate, raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts in your own mind about Republican John McCain. McCain won't protect Social Security. His top economic adviser says that, quote "you can't keep promises made to retirees." McCain supports raising the retirement age and cutting Social Security benefits and says he is, quote, "totally in favor" of George Bush's plan to privatize Social Security by taking money out of the Social Security Trust Fund and putting it in private stock market accounts. With our economy in recession, the war in Iraq is only making our economic problems worse. The war adds 12 billion dollars to our national debt every month, it prevents us from investing in our economy and creating jobs, and it's caused the price of oil and gas to increase. Economists say that McCain's blank-check commitment to Iraq will cause, quote, "substantial" long-term harm to our economy. McCain admits that he will bring a continuation of George Bush's policies. He proudly declares that, quote, "no one has supported President Bush on Iraq more than I have" and that he is, quote, "totally in favor" of Bush's plan to privatize Social Security. McCain wants to continue Bush's tax cuts for corporations and the rich and even supported Bush's veto of health care for children. Very Serious Total Serious

72 After the Debate and Attacks Page 72

73 Post-Debate Presidential Match-ups Now let me ask you again about your vote for president but with candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote? Obama McCain Lean Obama Lean McCain Obama McCain Obama McCain Initial Final Page 73

74 Washington, DC 10 G Street NE, Suite 400 Washington, DC California 50 California Street, Suite 1500 San Francisco, CA London, UK 405 Carrington House, 6 Hertford Street London, UK W1J 7SU Ph: Fax: Ph: Fax: Page 74 Ph: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0)