Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 1994=2010. Report on the Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic bipartisan post election poll

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 1994=2010. Report on the Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic bipartisan post election poll"

Transcription

1 Date: November 9, 2010 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Stan Greenberg and James Carville 1994=2010 Report on the Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic bipartisan post election poll November 2 nd was a very bad day for Democrats indeed, the worst since November 8, 1994 when Democrats lost their four-decade hold on the House of Representatives, control of the US Senate and 472 state legislative seats across the country. Newt Gingrich and his new majorities were triumphant. I was polling then for President Bill Clinton and the poll findings today in this joint poll with Resurgent Republic look eerily similar. On election night, an identical twothirds said the country is seriously off on the wrong track; an identical 45 percent said Clinton and Obama were moving the country in the right direction; and Clinton and Obama had almost identical favorability ratings split evenly between favorable and unfavorable responses. And we all know how that story ended presidentially two years later, Bob Dole got only 41 percent of the vote and Bill Clinton won an Electoral College landslide. While this survey fully documents the scale of the Republican s historic election victory, it underscores even more the risks for the new Republican majority and opportunities for President Obama and the Democrats in seeing history repeat itself. What Message Voters Were Sending 1 Make no mistake about the seriousness of what the voters said on Election Day. Voters expressed their deep discontent voting against the Democrats and the Obama agenda and very conscious that they were seeking to end Democratic control of the Congress. Voters wanted to punish Democrats. Voters were angry over an economy stuck at 10 percent unemployment and economic policies that apparently failed to move the jobs numbers. They were angrier still at the lack of focus on jobs, as evident in the year-long struggle over health care. 1 Full results of the poll including graphs, memo and frequency questionnaire are available at

2 The president and Democrats offered no economic framework, economic vision, or campaign message appropriate to the scale of the crisis and that would provide voters with context for the spending, bailouts, and debt. The Democrats lost white non-college voters in general, and working class male voters in particular, who were put off by the Democrats assertions about economic progress they were not certain that Democrats stood with them, rather than Wall Street. Many of these were voters cut out of a Reagan-Democratic mold and who rejected Bush s economy in the last two elections they have to be won back. The road back to the industrial Midwest runs through their communities. And voters were angry with the continuing partisan warfare, the lack of change in Washington and lack of economic progress at a time of acute crisis. So, voters had plenty to say. As Whit Ayers notes in his memo, independent voters were the carriers of that message, cutting their vote for Democrats by 13 points, giving the Republicans an 18-point margin. Misreading the Election Results But the voters angry message for Democrats in this election is not the same as a mandate for action as became evident in 1994 and now and reflected in this important bi-partisan poll. 2 To begin, we should note how discerning these voters are about the Republicans. Much like the new Senator from West Virginia, they aimed their weapons at the Democrats, not the Republicans for whom they have little regard for. The standing of the Republicans is no higher in this survey than it was in our post-election polls in 2008 and They are unreconstructed. Amazingly, this electorate gave the Republicans an 8-point lead in the vote, but not in party identification. This election was about Democratic governance, not a new regard for the Republican agenda and philosophy. While some patterns in this electorate are worrisome like the further shift of the white South to the Republicans, making it very difficult to reclaim these states could well be unique encouraging Republican and conservative leaders to overreach. 2 Post election survey jointly conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Research and Ayres, McHenry & Associates for Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic on November 2-3, 2010 among 1, voters, 866 of whom voted in the 2010 election. 2

3 10 percent unemployment, with uneven job growth and no decline in the unemployment rate. Most would bet on that changing, even if rapid growth seems unlikely. Seniors played an immense role in this result raising their participation as a share of the electorate to 23 percent and their vote for Republicans by 10 points since They were clearly spooked by health care reform and the so-called cuts in Medicare. But the debate on Medicare will soon shift as Republicans seek to get Medicare savings. This is one of the few areas where voters give the Democrats an advantage. And more important, young voters will soon return to the electorate in larger numbers. The presidential electorate that matters most now will be more diverse, younger, more union and with more unmarried women. Their participation and support dropped in 2010 but both will surely rise as the presidential race develops. The first two years of Obama s presidency, much like the first two of Clinton s, produced a conservative surge and energy. This was an ideological election for the anti- Democratic voters. Conservatives formed 41 percent of this off-year electorate up 7 points from 2008 and 84 percent voted Republican up 9 points. That created a very special electorate and shaped the independents, but new battles can change the dynamics. Newt Gingrich soon found out how difficult this was to maintain and how difficult to control. The Tea Party movement was a big factor in this election: nearly 40 percent of Republican Party identifiers are strong supporters. But this is a double-edged sword. These voters went to the polls to stop the Obama agenda and they are determined to see Obama fail. On issue after issue, they are out-of-sync with the presidential year and swing voters, even many of the independents. Based on the first week, Republican leaders at all levels will compete in a race to the bottom to stop Obama. Misreading the Mandate The poll shows three big areas where the president has opportunities and where Republicans could find themselves at risk. The first is the Republicans focus on austerity, concentrating on spending cuts and deficits with a lack of attention to job growth and other priorities; second, the desire for a post-partisan politics where leaders make compromises and work together; and third, the battle over the touchstone issues for conservative Republicans health care and taxes. The straightjacket of austerity. Punishing the Democrats for spending is not the same thing as wanting to slash spending. Failing to see the difference could be fatal as Republicans head into a spiral of spending cuts, seeking to out-do other conservatives. When we asked this conservative off-year electorate what kind of Member they wanted one who would fight big corporate special deals and work for the middle class and American 3

4 jobs, or one who would go to Washington to rein in government spending, deficits, and higher taxes they chose the former by a wide margin (52 to 40 percent). That was true for independents and swing voters, and even more among presidential year voters who did not participate this year. When asked whether the highest priority for making the US economy stronger and more competitive should be cutting the deficit or whether it should be BOTH cutting the deficit and making growth-producing investments, voters want both by more than two-to-one. The same was true for independents. Voters are not looking for a cramped mission of simple austerity, but it is hard to see how Republican politicians get out of this straightjacket. Voters want policies that produce growth and reduce the deficit. Perhaps Dick Cheney was right when he dismissed deficits as a Republican mantra. Surprisingly, this electorate was divided fairly evenly on the standard question of whether government should do more or less, but that is not true of those who join the presidential electorate who strongly want more government involvement. The overwhelming desire for parties and leaders to work together. A large portion of the protest voters this year were voting against the dysfunctional polarized politics that they witnessed in Congress and Washington. They saw protracted conflict, divisions, special deals and a failure to fix the economy. One more time, voters are saying they want a different kind of politics. There is no clearer message in this survey. By two-to-one, voters say they want compromise to find common ground, not leaders who take principled stands on what they believe in and pass less legislation. Independents also endorse compromise in the same proportion, but the challenge for Republicans is that half of their voters say, do not compromise. Almost 60 percent of this off-year electorate and a plurality of independents say they want their member of Congress to work with President Obama to get things done. But over 60 percent of Republicans want their member to mostly oppose his policies and provide a check on his power. Over 60 percent say they want congressional Republicans to work with President Obama to find solutions including 56 percent of independents but two-thirds of Republicans say they should work to stop Obama because his agenda would harm America. What about the voters message would Republican leaders misunderstand? It is clear they feel compelled to respond to the very stronger views of their base that gravitates toward conflict. Clearly, President Obama has an opportunity in a number of policy areas to reach out to Republicans who will have difficulty responding with civility. 4

5 The Contested Issues. While health care was an important part of the critique of this year s off-year voters, do not assume that is a mandate on health care and taxes. A plurality of these off-year voters were opposed to the health care reform law and intensity was on the side of the opponents but that changes when looking forward: The debate on health care in the survey with Resurgent Republic advocating repeal and replace, and Democracy Corps pointing out that insurance companies are lobbying to be able to drop people again and impose lifetime limits again comes out a draw in this conservative electorate, with the intensity advantaged neutralized. This debate is only beginning. The debate on health care this time led by Republicans who are trying to stop it at state level and going to the brink in each budget battle can very quickly become a Republican obsession, while the country is looking for a focus on job creation. The debate on extending the Bush tax cuts breaks marginally for the Republicans (49 to 45 percent), but that is not decisive. The Democratic argument centered on addressing the deficit and protecting Social Security, but a Democratic message centered on middle class tax cuts and the economy might have proved stronger. In any case, neither side is decisively winning the health care or tax debates among these voters who gave us a Republican landslide. There is plenty of room for these debates to evolve. After the 1994 defeat, President Clinton s standing rose with a rising economy, but also a step back from the congressional battlefield. This is reflected in his response to the Oklahoma City bombing, his battle to defend Medicare, education, and the environment from the Gingrich Republicans, and his reaching agreement with Republicans on key issues. Times are different, but the president has an opportunity to embrace growth, defend his approach to job creation, the deficit, taxes, health care, and reach out to Republicans on a range of other issues. The Republicans may have even less freedom than Speaker Gingrich to engage in each of these areas. 5

The real election and mandate Report on national post-election surveys

The real election and mandate Report on national post-election surveys Date: November 13, 2012 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, and Campaign for America s Future Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Erica Seifert, Greenberg Quinlan

More information

Friends of Democracy Corps and Campaign for America s Future. It s Jobs, Stupid

Friends of Democracy Corps and Campaign for America s Future. It s Jobs, Stupid Date: January 18, 2011 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Campaign for America s Future Stan Greenberg, James Carville, Robert Borosage It s Jobs, Stupid The voters have a clear and dramatic message

More information

MEMORANDUM. Independent Voter Preferences

MEMORANDUM. Independent Voter Preferences MEMORANDUM TO: Interested Parties FROM: Ed Gillespie, Whit Ayres and Leslie Sanchez DATE: November 9, 2010 RE: Post-Election Poll Highlights: Independents Propel Republican Victories in 2010 The 2010 mid-term

More information

What Next for President Obama and Democrats? Recommended action based on three post-election national surveys

What Next for President Obama and Democrats? Recommended action based on three post-election national surveys Date: November 19, 2010 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Stanley Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps What Next for President Obama and Democrats? Recommended

More information

The Big Decisions Ahead on Economic Renewal and Reduced Debt

The Big Decisions Ahead on Economic Renewal and Reduced Debt Date: August 12, 2010 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Campaign for America s Future Stan Greenberg, James Carville, Peyton M. Craighill The Big Decisions Ahead on Economic Renewal and Reduced

More information

Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Erica Seifert and Scott Tiell, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Erica Seifert and Scott Tiell, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Date: June 21, 2013 From: Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Erica Seifert and Scott Tiell, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Not so fast 2014 Congressional Battleground very competitive First survey

More information

The Budget Battle in the Republican-Obama Battleground

The Budget Battle in the Republican-Obama Battleground Date: March 28, 2011 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps Stan Greenberg, James Carville, Andrew Baumann and Erica Seifert The Budget Battle in the Republican-Obama Battleground Budget Debate Moves Voters

More information

Economic Agenda for Working Women and Men

Economic Agenda for Working Women and Men Date: July 22, 2014 To: Friends of and WVWVAF From: Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Page Gardner, WVWVAF James Hazzard, GQRR Economic Agenda for Working Women and Men The Difference in the Senate Battleground?

More information

Obama, Democrats Well Positioned For Budget Debate

Obama, Democrats Well Positioned For Budget Debate Date: March 20, 2009 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Stanley B. Greenberg, James Carville and Andrew Baumann Obama, Democrats Well Positioned For Budget Debate National

More information

The Changing Presidential Race after the Conventions

The Changing Presidential Race after the Conventions Date: September 15, 2008 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps Stan Greenberg and James Carville The Changing Presidential Race after the Conventions Report on national survey and survey of presidential

More information

Winning the Economic Argument Report on October National survey: The Economy

Winning the Economic Argument Report on October National survey: The Economy Date: November 3, 2011 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Stanley Greenberg, James Carville, and Erica Seifert Winning the Economic Argument Report on October National survey:

More information

Winning with a middle class reform politics and government message Report on a new national survey

Winning with a middle class reform politics and government message Report on a new national survey Date: December 17, 2015 To: Friends of & WVWVAF From: Stan Greenberg, Page Gardner, Women s Voices, Women Vote Action Fund David Walker, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Winning with a middle class reform politics

More information

The real mandate and looking forward after this election. November 15, 2012

The real mandate and looking forward after this election. November 15, 2012 The real mandate and looking forward after this election November 15, 2012 2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on several post-election surveys conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

More information

Revolt against Congress: Game On Survey of the Battleground House Districts

Revolt against Congress: Game On Survey of the Battleground House Districts Date: December 13, 2013 To: Friends of and Women s Voices Women Vote Action Fund From: Stan Greenberg, James Carville, and Erica Seifert Revolt against Congress: Game On Survey of the Battleground House

More information

Ten Economic Lessons from President Obama s State of the Union Address

Ten Economic Lessons from President Obama s State of the Union Address Date: March 7, 2013 To: Friends of and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner From: Stan Greenberg, James Carville, and Erica Seifert Ten Economic Lessons from President Obama s State of the Union Address 1. The economy

More information

Obama Closes the Democrats Historical National Security Gap

Obama Closes the Democrats Historical National Security Gap Date: May 19, 2009 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Jeremy Rosner and Kristi Fuksa, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

More information

The Role of the Rising American Electorate in the 2012 Election

The Role of the Rising American Electorate in the 2012 Election Date: November 9, 2012 To: From: Interested Parties Page Gardner, Women s Voices, Women Vote Action Fund; Stanley B. Greenberg, Democracy Corps/GQRR; Erica Seifert, Democracy Corps; David Walker, GQRR

More information

State of the Union 2014: At critical juncture, President makes major gains

State of the Union 2014: At critical juncture, President makes major gains Date: January 29, 2014 To: Friends of and Women s Voices Women Vote Action Fund From: Stan Greenberg, James Carville, Erica Seifert, and Scott Tiell State of the Union 2014: At critical juncture, President

More information

UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS LOWELL MASSACHUSETTS U.S. SENATE POLL Sept , ,005 Registered Voters (RVs)

UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS LOWELL MASSACHUSETTS U.S. SENATE POLL Sept , ,005 Registered Voters (RVs) UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS LOWELL MASSACHUSETTS U.S. SENATE POLL Sept. 22-28, 2011-1,005 Registered Voters (RVs) Sampling error on full sample is +/- 3.8 percentage points, larger for subgroups and for

More information

This Rising American Electorate & Working Class Strike Back

This Rising American Electorate & Working Class Strike Back Date: November 9, 2018 To: Interest parties From: Stan Greenberg, Greenberg Research Nancy Zdunkewicz, Page Gardner, Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund This Rising American Electorate & Working Class

More information

Making the Case on National Security as Elections Approach

Making the Case on National Security as Elections Approach Date: September 27, 2010 To: Interested Parties From: Stanley B. Greenberg, James Carville, Jeremy Rosner, Democracy Corps/GQR Jon Cowan, Matt Bennett, Andy Johnson, Third Way Making the Case on National

More information

Voters Ready to Act against Big Money in Politics

Voters Ready to Act against Big Money in Politics Date: November 10, 2014 To: Friends of and Every Voice From: Stan Greenberg and James Carville, David Donnelly, Every Voice Ben Winston, GQRR Voters Ready to Act against Big Money in Politics Lessons from

More information

ANOTHER CONGRESSIONAL WAVE ELECTION?

ANOTHER CONGRESSIONAL WAVE ELECTION? Date: June 3, 2008 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Stan Greenberg, James Carville and Ana Iparraguirre ANOTHER CONGRESSIONAL WAVE ELECTION? Democrats Improve Advantage

More information

New message platform for 2018 s key battlegrounds Report from phone survey & web-panel in the 12-state battleground

New message platform for 2018 s key battlegrounds Report from phone survey & web-panel in the 12-state battleground Date: May 3, 2018 To: Friends of WVWVAF and From: Page Gardner, Women s Voices Women Vote Action Fund Stan Greenberg, Greenberg Research Nancy Zdunkewicz, Report from phone survey & web-panel in the 12-state

More information

Consolidating Democrats The strategy that gives a governing majority

Consolidating Democrats The strategy that gives a governing majority Date: September 23, 2016 To: Progressive community From: Stan Greenberg, Page Gardner, Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund Consolidating Democrats The strategy that gives a governing majority On the

More information

The New Politics and New Mandate

The New Politics and New Mandate Date: November 12, 2008 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and the Campaign for America s Future Stanley Greenberg, James Carville, and Ana Iparraguirre The New Politics and New Mandate Report on the

More information

State of the Union 2015: Playing offense, President Obama makes gains on critical issues

State of the Union 2015: Playing offense, President Obama makes gains on critical issues Date: January 21, 2015 To: Friends of and Women s Voices Women Vote Action Fund and The Voter Participation Center From: Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Missy Egelsky and Ben Winston, Greenberg Quinlan

More information

Democracy Corps June Survey: Grim Stability Will Require Race-by-Race Fight

Democracy Corps June Survey: Grim Stability Will Require Race-by-Race Fight July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 20101 July 8, 2010 Democracy Corps June Survey: Grim Stability Will Require Race-by-Race Fight July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 2 Methodology This presentation is based primarily

More information

Rural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 2008

Rural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 2008 June 8, 07 Rural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 08 To: From: Interested Parties Anna Greenberg, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner William Greener, Greener and

More information

The Urgent Economic Narrative for 2014

The Urgent Economic Narrative for 2014 Date: April 16, 2014 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Stan Greenberg, James Carville, Erica Seifert, and Fredrica Mayer, Democracy Corps Page Gardner, Women s Voices Women

More information

The Budget Battle and AIG

The Budget Battle and AIG The Budget Battle and AIG Democracy Corps The surveys This presentation is based primarily on a national Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 2008 voters (834 landline, 166 cell phone weighted; 880 landline,

More information

The President-Elect s Standing: Now and 1992

The President-Elect s Standing: Now and 1992 Date: December 3, 2008 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps Stanley B. Greenberg, James Carville and Andrew H. Baumann The President-Elect s Standing: Now and 1992 Report on new national survey The latest

More information

The 2014 Election in Aiken County: Popularity of Six Key Provisions in the Affordable Care Act

The 2014 Election in Aiken County: Popularity of Six Key Provisions in the Affordable Care Act The 2014 Election in Aiken County: Popularity of Six Key Provisions in the Affordable Care Act A Public Service Report The USC Aiken Social Science and Business Research Lab Robert E. Botsch, Director

More information

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps Report on the Obama Generation Republicans on the Precipice of Becoming Irrelevant: Obama and Republicans Square off Among Younger People www.greenbergresearch.com

More information

CAPPELEN DAMM ACCESS UPDATE: THE PERFECT SLOSH

CAPPELEN DAMM ACCESS UPDATE: THE PERFECT SLOSH CAPPELEN DAMM ACCESS UPDATE: THE PERFECT SLOSH 2 The following article about the American Mid-Term elections in 2010 seeks to explain the surprisingly dramatic swings in the way Americans have voted over

More information

Moral Values Take Back Seat to Partisanship and the Economy In 2004 Presidential Election

Moral Values Take Back Seat to Partisanship and the Economy In 2004 Presidential Election Moral Values Take Back Seat to Partisanship and the Economy In 2004 Presidential Election Lawrence R. Jacobs McKnight Land Grant Professor Director, 2004 Elections Project Humphrey Institute University

More information

With country angrier, Republicans at edge of even bigger congressional losses

With country angrier, Republicans at edge of even bigger congressional losses Date: September 29, 2008 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps Stanley Greenberg, James Carville and Andrew Baumann With country angrier, Republicans at edge of even bigger congressional losses A new poll

More information

Growing the Youth Vote

Growing the Youth Vote Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps Youth for the Win! Growing the Youth Vote www.greenbergresearch.com Washington, DC California 10 G Street, NE Suite 500 Washington, DC 20002 388 Market Street Suite

More information

Democratic majority in Congress. No political mandate (43% of popular vote)

Democratic majority in Congress. No political mandate (43% of popular vote) FOR Democratic majority in Congress AGAINST No political mandate (43% of popular vote) ECONOMY FAMILIES EDUCATION CRIME HEALTH CARE ENVIRONMENT Led by Newt Gingrich Congressman from Georgia/ Speaker of

More information

Change versus more of the same: On-going panel of target voting groups provides path for Democrats in 2018

Change versus more of the same: On-going panel of target voting groups provides path for Democrats in 2018 Date: November 2, 2017 To: Page Gardner, Women s Voices Women Vote Action Fund From: Stan Greenberg, Greenberg Research Nancy Zdunkewicz, Change versus more of the same: On-going panel of target voting

More information

The Battleground: Democratic Perspective September 7 th, 2016

The Battleground: Democratic Perspective September 7 th, 2016 The Battleground: Democratic Perspective September 7 th, 2016 Democratic Strategic Analysis: By Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Corey Teter As we enter the home stretch of the 2016 cycle, the political

More information

Red Shift. The Domestic Policy Program. October 2010

Red Shift. The Domestic Policy Program. October 2010 The Domestic Policy Program TO: Interested Parties FROM: Anne Kim, Domestic Policy Program Director Jon Cowan, President, Third Way RE: The Deciders: Moderates in 2010 October 2010 Amid growing concerns

More information

Obama Emerging Ahead in Close Race

Obama Emerging Ahead in Close Race Date: May 29, 2008 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps Stan Greenberg and Ana Iparraguirre Obama Emerging Ahead in Close Race Race begins to take definition in latest Democracy Corps National Survey As

More information

CONSOLIDATING THE HISPANIC VOTE

CONSOLIDATING THE HISPANIC VOTE Date: August 29, 2008 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Mark Feierstein and Ana Iparraguirre, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner CONSOLIDATING THE HISPANIC VOTE

More information

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps Youth for the Win! Audacity of Hope

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps Youth for the Win! Audacity of Hope Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps Youth for the Win! Audacity of Hope www.greenbergresearch.com Washington, DC California 10 G Street, NE Suite 500 Washington, DC 20002 388 Market Street Suite 860

More information

Young Voters in the 2010 Elections

Young Voters in the 2010 Elections Young Voters in the 2010 Elections By CIRCLE Staff November 9, 2010 This CIRCLE fact sheet summarizes important findings from the 2010 National House Exit Polls conducted by Edison Research. The respondents

More information

NATIONAL: 2018 HOUSE RACE STABILITY

NATIONAL: 2018 HOUSE RACE STABILITY Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Friday, November 2, 2018 Contact: PATRICK MURRAY

More information

Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps. Mark Feierstein and Al Quinlan, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps. Mark Feierstein and Al Quinlan, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner DEMOCRACY CORPS Date: To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Mark Feierstein and Al Quinlan, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner WINNING THE IMMIGRATION ISSUE A Report

More information

Obama makes gains among swing voters on critical issues

Obama makes gains among swing voters on critical issues Date: February 13, 2013 To: From: Friends of, Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund, and the Economic Media Project, Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund, and the Economic Media Project Obama makes

More information

The perception of corporate bias is underscored by broad disagreement with many recent Supreme Court decisions, the Citizens United case among them.

The perception of corporate bias is underscored by broad disagreement with many recent Supreme Court decisions, the Citizens United case among them. The Next Supreme Court Justice To: Interested Parties From: MoveOn.org Greenberg Quinlan Rosner President Obama s nominee will be vetted on experience, scholarship, ideology, judicial philosophy, and a

More information

Edging toward an earthquake Report on the WVWV March National Survey

Edging toward an earthquake Report on the WVWV March National Survey Date: April 1, 2016 To: Page Gardner, Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund From: Stan Greenberg and Nancy Zdunkewicz, Edging toward an earthquake Report on the WVWV March National Survey new poll on

More information

THE TARRANCE GROUP. Interested Parties. Brian Nienaber. Key findings from the Battleground Week 6 Survey

THE TARRANCE GROUP. Interested Parties. Brian Nienaber. Key findings from the Battleground Week 6 Survey THE TARRANCE GROUP To: From: Re: Interested Parties Ed Goeas Brian Nienaber Key findings from the Battleground Week 6 Survey The Tarrance Group with its partners Lake Research Partners, POLITICO, and George

More information

Battleground 59: A (Potentially) Wasted Opportunity for the Republican Party Republican Analysis by: Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber

Battleground 59: A (Potentially) Wasted Opportunity for the Republican Party Republican Analysis by: Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber Battleground 59: A (Potentially) Wasted Opportunity for the Republican Party Republican Analysis by: Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber In what seems like so long ago, the 2016 Presidential Election cycle began

More information

Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps

Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Date: January 13, 2009 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Anna Greenberg and John Brach, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

More information

Election and Legislative Update for Healthcare Providers 2012 Southeast Healthcare Provider Conference September 25, 2012

Election and Legislative Update for Healthcare Providers 2012 Southeast Healthcare Provider Conference September 25, 2012 Election and Legislative Update for Healthcare Providers 2012 Southeast Healthcare Provider Conference September 25, 2012 Mary Moore Hamrick Grant Thornton LLP Stephanie Kennan McGuireWoods Consulting

More information

Breakthrough Economic Message Results of major web survey on the economy. July 18, 2011

Breakthrough Economic Message Results of major web survey on the economy. July 18, 2011 Breakthrough Economic Message Results of major web survey on the economy July 18, 2011 2 The experiment This presentation is based on a national web survey of 2,000 likely 2012 voters (2,000 weighted)

More information

The Morning Call / Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. Pennsylvania 2012: An Election Preview

The Morning Call / Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. Pennsylvania 2012: An Election Preview The Morning Call / Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion Pennsylvania 2012: An Election Preview Key Findings Report December 9, 2011 KEY FINDINGS: 1. While nearly half of Pennsylvanians currently

More information

A Powerful Agenda for 2016 Democrats Need to Give Voters a Reason to Participate

A Powerful Agenda for 2016 Democrats Need to Give Voters a Reason to Participate Date: June 29, 2015 To: Friends of and WVWVAF From: Stan Greenberg and Nancy Zdunkewicz, Page Gardner, Women s Voices Women Vote Action Fund A Powerful Agenda for 2016 Democrats Need to Give Voters a Reason

More information

Public Opinion Strategies/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research October 2010

Public Opinion Strategies/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research October 2010 Project #101309 2 This survey was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies in conjunction with Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for National Public Radio and is the 31st survey in the NPR series. These

More information

Behind Kerry s New Hampshire Win: Broad Base, Moderate Image, Electability

Behind Kerry s New Hampshire Win: Broad Base, Moderate Image, Electability ABC NEWS EXIT POLL ANALYSIS: THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 1/27/04 Behind Kerry s New Hampshire Win: Broad Base, Moderate Image, Electability A broad base on issues, a moderate image

More information

President Obama and the Democrats at Six Months

President Obama and the Democrats at Six Months Date: August 10, 2009 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Stanley B. Greenberg, James Carville and Andrew Baumann President Obama and the Democrats at Six Months The last

More information

President Trump And America s 2020 Presidential Election: An Analytical Framework

President Trump And America s 2020 Presidential Election: An Analytical Framework President Trump And America s 2020 Presidential Election: An Analytical Framework March 6, 2019 Trump 2020 Meets Trump 2016 Trump 2020 Is A Stronger Candidate Than Trump 2016 Looking purely at Trump s

More information

2018 at a breaking point? Impressive gains among base and persuasion targets, and potential for more

2018 at a breaking point? Impressive gains among base and persuasion targets, and potential for more Date: January 24, 2018 To: From: Page Gardner, Women s Voices Women Vote Action Fund Stanley Greenberg, Greenberg Research Nancy Zdunkewicz, 2018 at a breaking point? Impressive gains among base and persuasion

More information

Landslide election Potential for Democratic Gains. October 2016

Landslide election Potential for Democratic Gains. October 2016 Landslide election Potential for Democratic Gains October 2016 Methodology National phone survey of 900 Likely 2016 Voters. This survey took place October 21-24 among national likely voters. Likely voters

More information

Voters Push Back Against Big Money Politics. November 13, 2012

Voters Push Back Against Big Money Politics. November 13, 2012 Voters Push Back Against Big Money Politics November 13, 2012 2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps and Public

More information

1996 NEW JERSEY ELECTIONS CLINTON LEADS DOLE; FEW KNOW TORRICELLI AND ZIMMER

1996 NEW JERSEY ELECTIONS CLINTON LEADS DOLE; FEW KNOW TORRICELLI AND ZIMMER EMBARGOED NOT FOR RELEASE UNTIL: SUNDAY, JUNE 23, 1996 RELEASE: SL/EP 57-1 (EP 107-1) CONTACT: JANICE BALLOU (908)828-2210, Ext. 240 A story based on the survey findings presented in this release and background

More information

The President, Congress and Deficit Battles April 15-20, 2011

The President, Congress and Deficit Battles April 15-20, 2011 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Thursday, April 21, 2011 6:30pm (EDT) The President, Congress and Deficit Battles April 15-20, 2011 With the possibility of more spending showdowns between President

More information

CHAPTER 6 REPUBLICAN HYPOCRITES

CHAPTER 6 REPUBLICAN HYPOCRITES CHAPTER 6 REPUBLICAN HYPOCRITES Republicans usually go around saying they want less government. That kind of sounds like Libertarians, right? Would Republicans end the war on drugs, end mandatory Social

More information

The Rising American Electorate & White Working Class Strike Back: Extended memo from post-election research

The Rising American Electorate & White Working Class Strike Back: Extended memo from post-election research Date: November 27, 2018 To: Interested parties From: Stanley Greenberg, Greenberg Research Nancy Zdunkewicz, Page Gardner, Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund The Rising American Electorate & White

More information

Health Care Speech Brings Small Rebound for Democrats and Serious Problems for Republicans

Health Care Speech Brings Small Rebound for Democrats and Serious Problems for Republicans Date: September 23, 2009 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Stanley B. Greenberg, James Carville, Jesse Contario and Kate Monninger Health Care Speech Brings Small

More information

President Obama Scores With Middle Class Message

President Obama Scores With Middle Class Message Date: January 25, 2012 To: Friends of and GQR Digital From: and GQR Digital President Obama Scores With Middle Class Message But Voters Skeptical That Washington, Including President, Can Actually Get

More information

Dead Heat in Vote Preferences Presages an Epic Battle Ahead

Dead Heat in Vote Preferences Presages an Epic Battle Ahead ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: The 2012 Election EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, July 10, 2012 Dead Heat in Vote Preferences Presages an Epic Battle Ahead Economic discontent and substantial

More information

How Progressives Can & Must Engage on NAFTA Renegotiations Findings from National Poll

How Progressives Can & Must Engage on NAFTA Renegotiations Findings from National Poll Date: October 20, 2017 From: Stan Greenberg, Greenberg Research How Progressives Can & Must Engage on NAFTA Renegotiations Findings from National Poll Trade stands out from every other policy issue because

More information

A Revolt Against the Status Quo Gives the Republicans a Record Lead

A Revolt Against the Status Quo Gives the Republicans a Record Lead ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: THE 2010 MIDTERMS EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 7, 2010 A Revolt Against the Status Quo Gives the Republicans a Record Lead Swelling economic

More information

Framing the 2010 election

Framing the 2010 election September 20, 2010 Page 1 September 20, 2010 Framing the 2010 election Message test using a web-panel experiment September 20, 2010 Page 2 Republican message frameworks The following is a statement by

More information

The POLITICO GW Battleground Poll September 2010

The POLITICO GW Battleground Poll September 2010 The POLITICO GW Battleground Poll September 2010 Democratic Strategic Analysis: by Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Matt Price This week s primaries demonstrated once again that conventional wisdom is

More information

Summer of Discontent Slams Obama And Congressional Republicans to Boot

Summer of Discontent Slams Obama And Congressional Republicans to Boot ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: Politics and the Economy EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 6, 2011 Summer of Discontent Slams Obama And Congressional Republicans to Boot More than

More information

The 1990s and the New Millennium

The 1990s and the New Millennium Section The 990s and the New Millennium The Democrats gain control of the White House by moving their party s platform toward the political center. The 990s and the New Millennium Clinton Wins the Presidency

More information

Democrats embraced strong message on Trump tax cuts and economy & won big in 2018

Democrats embraced strong message on Trump tax cuts and economy & won big in 2018 Date: November 14, 2018 To: Interested parties From: Randi Weingarten, American Federation of Teachers Stanley Greenberg, Greenberg Research Nancy Zdunkewicz, Democracy Corps Democrats embraced strong

More information

Creating a Mandate to Rewrite the Rules of the Economy July 2016

Creating a Mandate to Rewrite the Rules of the Economy July 2016 Creating a Mandate to Rewrite the Rules of the Economy July 2016 Methodology National phone survey of 900 likely 2016 voters from July 13-18, 2016. This survey took place July 13-18, 2016. Respondents

More information

Growth Leads to Transformation

Growth Leads to Transformation Growth Leads to Transformation Florida attracted newcomers for a variety of reasons. Some wanted to escape cold weather (retirees). Others, primarily from abroad, came in search of political freedom or

More information

The Economy Growing at Two Different Speeds

The Economy Growing at Two Different Speeds Date: February 2, 2010 To: From: Friends of and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Stanley B. Greenberg, James Carville and Jesse Contario The Economy Growing at Two Different Speeds Gap between micro and macro

More information

Obama Approval Moves Ahead Though Challenges Aplenty Remain

Obama Approval Moves Ahead Though Challenges Aplenty Remain ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: 2011 POLITICS EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, Jan. 18, 2011 Obama Approval Moves Ahead Though Challenges Aplenty Remain Aided by his response to the Tucson

More information

Survey of US Voters Issues and Attitudes June 2014

Survey of US Voters Issues and Attitudes June 2014 Survey of US Voters Issues and Attitudes June 2014 Methodology Three surveys of U.S. voters conducted in late 2013 Two online surveys of voters, respondents reached using recruit-only online panel of adults

More information

Making Sense of the Jewish Vote

Making Sense of the Jewish Vote To: From: Interested Parties Jim Gerstein Date: February 28, 2012 Making Sense of the Jewish Vote As November 2012 approaches, we can expect the familiar election year battle cry of Republican, conservatives,

More information

Franklin Pierce University / WBZ Poll

Franklin Pierce University / WBZ Poll Franklin Pierce University / WBZ Poll September 17, By: Mark Rooney Analyst RKM Research and Communications 603.433.3982 Republican Presidential Primary RINDGE, NH As the 2008 New Hampshire Presidential

More information

Election 2012 in Review

Election 2012 in Review Election 2012 in Review Photo source: AP, Bradenton Herald John John Coleman Coleman University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Clark University Harrington Lecture, October 24, 2011 Clark University

More information

Nevada Poll Results Tarkanian 39%, Heller 31% (31% undecided) 31% would renominate Heller (51% want someone else, 18% undecided)

Nevada Poll Results Tarkanian 39%, Heller 31% (31% undecided) 31% would renominate Heller (51% want someone else, 18% undecided) Nevada Poll Results Tarkanian 39%, Heller 31% (31% undecided) 31% would renominate Heller (51% want someone else, 18% undecided) POLLING METHODOLOGY For this poll, a sample of likely Republican households

More information

The 2014 Election and Looking Ahead National Survey of 2016 Likely Voters November 7, 2014

The 2014 Election and Looking Ahead National Survey of 2016 Likely Voters November 7, 2014 The 2014 Election and Looking Ahead National Survey of 2016 Likely Voters November 7, 2014 2 The method: survey of 2014 voters and presidential year voters This presentation is based on this unique survey

More information

2002 United States Senate Runoff Survey

2002 United States Senate Runoff Survey University of New Orleans ScholarWorks@UNO Survey Research Center Publications Survey Research Center (UNO Poll) 11-1-2002 2002 United States Senate Runoff Survey Susan E. Howell University of New Orleans

More information

Post-mortem survey: the historic 2010 election

Post-mortem survey: the historic 2010 election November 2-3, 2010 Post-mortem survey: the historic 2010 election Campaign for America s Future Democracy Corps Methodology and Overview The results of the following survey are displayed throughout this

More information

2016: An Election Year to Remember. Ron Elving Senior Washington Editor National Public Radio

2016: An Election Year to Remember. Ron Elving Senior Washington Editor National Public Radio 2016: An Election Year to Remember Ron Elving Senior Washington Editor National Public Radio Anger and Anxiety An Election Year to Remember : Ron Elving / NPR FMI / Meat Conference February 22, 2016 Nashville

More information

The 2010 Midterm Election What Really Happened and Why

The 2010 Midterm Election What Really Happened and Why MEMORANDUM To: Interested Parties From: Jim McLaughlin and John McLaughlin Re: National Post-Election Survey Date: November 17, 2010 Methodology: The 2010 Midterm Election What Really Happened and Why

More information

In 2008, President Obama and Congressional Democrats

In 2008, President Obama and Congressional Democrats Report MODERATE POLITICS NOVEMBER 2010 Droppers and Switchers : The Fraying Obama Coalition By Anne Kim and Stefan Hankin In 2008, President Obama and Congressional Democrats assembled a broad and winning

More information

Obama Builds Real Lead in Presidential Contest

Obama Builds Real Lead in Presidential Contest Obama Builds Real Lead in Presidential Contest Report on post-convention survey September 14, 2012 2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

More information

Political Parties. Chapter 9

Political Parties. Chapter 9 Political Parties Chapter 9 Political Parties What Are Political Parties? Political parties: organized groups that attempt to influence the government by electing their members to local, state, and national

More information

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY Phone Fax

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY Phone Fax Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu NBC News/Marist Poll: Romney and Santorum Neck and Neck in Michigan ***

More information

Council President James A. Klein s memo to members: policy priorities will need to overcome partisan conflict

Council President James A. Klein s memo to members: policy priorities will need to overcome partisan conflict NR 2016-20 For additional information: Jason Hammersla 202-289-6700 NEWS RELEASE Council President James A. Klein s memo to members: policy priorities will need to overcome partisan conflict WASHINGTON,

More information

ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN MEDICAL COLLEGES (AAMC) NOVEMBER NATIONAL SURVEY MEMO SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN MEDICAL COLLEGES (AAMC) NOVEMBER NATIONAL SURVEY MEMO SUMMARY OF FINDINGS TO: FROM: RE: ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN MEDICAL COLLEGES (AAMC) BILL McINTURFF/ELIZABETH HARRINGTON NOVEMBER NATIONAL SURVEY MEMO SUMMARY OF FINDINGS DATE: NOVEMBER 28 th, 2011 Methodology This memorandum

More information

The Urgent Policy Agenda for Unmarried Women Unmarried women focused on critical economic issues

The Urgent Policy Agenda for Unmarried Women Unmarried women focused on critical economic issues The Urgent Policy Agenda for Unmarried Women Unmarried women focused on critical economic issues March 25, 2013 Methodology: cell and demographic change This presentation is based on our latest national

More information