The Implications of the Trump Presidency for NATO. The election of Donald Trump to the Presidency of the United States in November

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1 The Implications of the Trump Presidency for NATO The election of Donald Trump to the Presidency of the United States in November upended international relations in virtually every area of the international relations, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was no exception. Trump s rhetoric during the presidential campaign suggests a genuine possibility that the United States of America might attempt to withdraw from NATO, an action that would dramatically reduce the bloc s influence. His close ties to President Vladimir Putin of Russia have also raised significant concerns from members of NATO. 1 While Trump s well established unpredictability means that nothing is certain, his election likely heralds a new era for the coalition of states. During the 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump frequently questioned America s role in NATO and suggested that America might not honor its commitment to defend other NATO members under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. 2 Such an action would be tantamount to a United States withdrawal from the bloc, and would be a massive handicap on its efforts to deal with Russia and other powers in the future. 3 Trump s primary claim against NATO is that the United States pays a disproportionate share of the organization s costs. During a town hall on March 29, Trump said, The other thing that s bad about NATO, we re paying too much. We re spending a tremendous billions and billions of dollars on NATO. We re paying too much! You have countries in NATO, I think it s 28 countries you have countries in NATO that are 1 Birnbaum, Michael. European leaders, NATO caution Trump on warming relations with Russia. The Chicago Tribune. 15 November Smith, Alexander. Donald Trump s NATO Stance Threatens West as We Know It: Experts. NBC News. 12 November Ibid.

2 getting a free ride and it s unfair, it s very unfair. 4 Trump s claim is not entirely without merit. Direct funding costs for NATO are calculated based on each nation s Gross National Income. The United States accounts for just over 22% of NATO s direct funding. 5 That figure, while still the largest share of any NATO member, is proportional. 6 However, in terms of indirect spending, a significantly broader category, the United States does spend proportionally more than its NATO allies. The United States expends 3.7% of its GDP on defense, while the median figure for NATO members is just 1.2%, well below the NATO guideline of defense expenditures of 2% of GDP. 7 Trump s administration most likely will, at the very least, try to force changes to NATO s funding policies that will reduce the burden on the United States. Trump s close ties to Russia have raised major concerns within NATO during this period of conflict between Putin and the west. During the campaign, members of the Democratic Party frequently attacked Trump for receiving assistance from Russia, particularly after the American intelligence committee concluded that Russia was behind the cyberattacks on the Democratic National Committee that resulted in embarrassing s being leaked. These claims were all denied by the Trump Campaign, but after the election, Sergei Ryabkov, a Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia, states that the Russian government was in contact with Trump during the campaign. 8 This inconsistence alarmed many NATO members, particularly those in Eastern 4 Kessler, Glenn. Trump s claim that the U.S. pays the lion s share for NATO. The Washington Post. 30 March Ibid. 6 Ibid. 7 Ibid. 8 Oliphant, Roland. Concern over future of NATO as Russia admits to contacts with Donald Trump s team. The Telegraph. 10 November

3 Europe who view Russia as a direct threat. The incoming Prime Minister of Lithuania, Saulius Skvernelis, was quoted as saying, I really hope that the rhetoric on defence and Russia was mostly a part of the election campaign." 9 President Poroshenko of the Ukraine, an ally of NATO, congratulated Trump, but explicitly expressed his hope that Trump would stand with the Ukraine against Russian aggression. 10 Trump s selection of Rex Tillerson to lead the American State Department also alarmed NATO members, as Tillerson strongly opposed U.S. sanctions against Russia and even received the Order of Friendship from President Putin in Of course, the various NATO leaders have formally congratulated the president-elect, but there is an unmistakable undertone of worry in the capitals of Europe. 12 No one in NATO knows exactly what to expect from the next American president, but the next few years are likely to be very interesting indeed. 9 Ibid. 10 Ibid. 11 Krauss, Clifford. Rex Tillerson, an Aggressive Dealmaker Whose Ties with Russia may Prompt Scrutiny. The New York Times. 11 December Borger, Julian. Europe s leaders cannot hide their nerves amid Trump congratulations. The Guardian. 9 November

4 Weapons in Kaliningrad Sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave located approximately 400 miles from the rest of Russia. Although the population is almost entirely ethnic Russian, Kaliningrad, originally named Konigsberg (German for King s City ), had long been a major German military stronghold and trading and industrial center, anchoring the territory of East Prussia. After Germany s defeat at the end of World War I, however, East Prussia became geographically isolated from the rest of Germany to allow the newly independent Polish republic a port on the Baltic Sea, and a purported need to regain access to the exclave served as part of Hitler s justification for his invasion of Poland in 1939, leading to World War II. Subsequently, Konigsberg was severely damaged by British air raids and obliterated by the Soviet Red Army, who occupied the city as they expelled the Nazis from Eastern Europe. At the end of the war, Konigsberg was renamed Kaliningrad (after Soviet war hero Mikhail Kalinin), its German population was forcibly expelled and replaced by Soviet soldiers and their families, and Kaliningrad itself was directly incorporated into the Soviet Union as a Russian oblast, or administrative region. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Kaliningrad remained part of Russia but was, again, geographically separated from the rest of the country. As NATO and the European Union expanded eastwards, Russian foreign policy has become increasingly defensive and aggressive, conferring Kaliningrad a greater role in Russian foreign policy and military strategy. After Poland and the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) accession into NATO and the EU, Kaliningrad has become surrounded by EU/NATO states, forcing both land and maritime transportation between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia to traverse through an adversarial region. Despite this setback, Kaliningrad s close proximity to the West also serves as a strategic asset for both Russia s economy and its military. On one hand,

5 not only does the Baltic Sea shelf off the coast of Kaliningrad contain an estimated 9.1 million tons of oil, but the Russian government has declared Kaliningrad a free trade zone, taking advantage of its location near economic powerhouses further west. 13 On the other hand, however, missiles and other military technologies that are otherwise incapable of quickly striking Western Europe from Russia can be relocated to Kaliningrad, placing major European capitals easily within their range. Hence, any Russian military activity in the territory can easily be construed as a threat to NATO and the European Union. As of late 2016, US spy satellites have revealed Russia is in the process of permanently basing a new generation of Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad. These missiles are capable of carrying nuclear weapons and, from Kaliningrad, can strike Berlin. 14 According to Igor Korotchenko, chief editor of the Russian magazine National Defense, the deployment of Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad can be likened to an insurance policy which prevents neighboring NATO countries from fulfilling their aggressive plans, 15 neutralizing outside threats as NATO ramps up its military presence in Poland and the Baltic States in response to perceived Russian expansionism in Ukraine. In particular, Russian officials describe this move as a direct response to anti-missile installments in Romania and Poland, which are expressly 13 Sukhankin, Sergey. Kaliningrad: Russia s stagnant enclave. European Council on Foreign Relations. 31 March Solovyov, Dmitry, and Andrius Sytas. "Russia Moves Nuclear-capable Missiles into Kaliningrad." Ed. Andrew Roche. Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 08 Oct Web. 21 Dec < 15 Sputnik. "Moscow's Baltic 'Insurance': Advanced Weapons Keeping Russia Safe in Kaliningrad." Sputnik International. Sputnik, 19 Dec Web. 21 Dec <

6 intended by Washington to counteract threats from states such as Iran but seen by the Kremlin as militarily provocative moves aimed at Russia. 16 Nevertheless, it is not thought that Russia intends to actually utilize these systems against the West. Rather, it is a common tactic intended to escalate tensions, create a discord and then expect concessions elsewhere. 17 In light of recent, crippling economic sanctions as a response to the Ukrainian conflict, Russia has much to gain by intimidating the West from a geographical location within the EU and NATO themselves. 16 Hodge, Nathan. "Russia's Buildup in Kaliningrad to Test Donald Trump on NATO." The Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones & Company, 09 Dec Web. 21 Dec < 17 Solovyov, Dmitry, and Andrius Sytas. "Russia Moves Nuclear-capable Missiles into Kaliningrad." Ed. Andrew Roche. Reuters.