Disruptive Demographics: Implications for Higher Education Institutions
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1 Disruptive Demographics: Implications for Higher Education Institutions James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Ins<tute of Private Enterprise Kenan- Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill September 2015
2 OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportuni<es Discussion
3 what CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL September 2015
4
5 6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises Again The Browning of America Marrying Out is In The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandma s Well and Grandpa s Too!
6 People on the Move The South Rises Again!
7 The South Continues To Rise...Again!
8 SOUTH S SHARE OF U.S. NET Years POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, U.S. Absolute Population Change South s Absolute Population Change South s Share of Change ,974,129 8,468,303 27% ,123,138 9,339,455 33% ,886,128 15,598,279 30% ,497,947 22,650,563 50% ,035,665 29,104,814 49%
9 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY Region REGION, Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S. 309,050,816 26,884, % Northeast 55,417,311 1,753, % Midwest 66,972,887 2,480, % South 114,555,744 14,318, % West 72,256,183 8,774, %
10 SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population Change Percent of Total UNITED STATES 26,884, NORTHEAST 1,753, MIDWEST 2,480, SOUTH 14,318, WEST 8,774,
11 NET MIGRATION TRENDS, Northeast Midwest South West Total -1,032-2,008 +2, Black Hispanic Elderly Foreign born = Net Import = Net Export
12 STATE SHARE OF SOUTH S NET GROWTH, Region/State Absolute Change State s Share The South 14,318, % Texas 4,293, % Florida 2,818, % Georgia 1,501, % North Carolina 1,486, % Other Southern States 4,218, %
13 GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, The Region Domestic Foreign Years In Out Net In Out Net ,125,096 3,470, , , , , ,874,414 3,477, , , , ,300 Florida Domestic Foreign Years In Out Net In Out Net , , ,002 41,745 24,108 17, , ,087-13,156 33,095 32,094 1,001
14 Absolute and Percent Population Change, Area 2010 Popula3on Absolute Change Percent Change U.S. 308,745,538 27,323, % South 114,555,744 14,318, % Georgia 9,687,653 1,501, % Atlanta MSA 5,268,860 1,005, %
15 Popula3on Change by County, Atlanta MSA,
16 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY Region REGION, Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S. 318,857,056 10,098, % Northeast 56,152, , % Midwest 67,745, , % South 119,771,934 5,208, % West 75,187,681 3,240, %
17 SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population Change Percent of Total UNITED STATES 10,098, NORTHEAST 833, MIDWEST 815, SOUTH 5,208, WEST 3,240,
18 STATE SHARES OF SOUTH S NET GROWTH, Region/State Absolute Change State s Share The South 5,208, % Texas 1,810, % Florida 1,088, % Georgia 408, % North Carolina 408, % Virginia 325, % Other Southern States 1,167, %
19 Absolute and Percent Population Change, Area 2014 Popula3on Absolute Change Percent Change U.S. 318,857,056 10, % South 119,771,934 5,208, % Georgia 10,097, , % Atlanta MSA 5,614, , %
20 Balance of Population Change Equation Popula3on Change = In- Flows Out- Flows where In- flows = [Births + In- Migrants] & Out- Flows =[Deaths + Out- Migrants]
21 Typology of Communities Demographic Experience Balanced Growth Natural Growth Migra3on Magnets Dying Biologically Declining Emptying Out Drivers Births exceed deaths and in- migra3on exceeds out- migra3on. Out- migra3on exceeds in- migra3on but this popula3on loss is offset by an excess of births over deaths. Deaths exceed births but popula3on loss is averted because in- migra3on exceeds out- migra3on. Deaths exceed births and out- migra3on exceeds in- migra3on, resul3ng in popula3on loss. In- migra3on exceeds out- migra3on but his net migra3on is not substan3al enough to offset an excess of deaths over births Births exceed deaths but out- migra3on exceeds in- migra3on, resul3ng in net popula3on loss
22 Types of Communities in Atlanta MSA Type of Community Number Balanced Growth 16 Natural Growth 4 Migra<on Magnet 0 Emptying Out 8 Dying 1 Biologically Declining 0
23 Typology of County Popula3on Change, Atlanta MSA,
24 Two colorful demographic processes are drivers of change Browning & Graying of America
25 The Browning of America Immigra<on- driven popula<on change
26
27 The Numbers Legal Immigrants Year Annual Flow , , , , ,137, ,067,000 Refugees, Parolees, Asylees Year Annual Flow , , , , ,500
28 The Numbers Cont d Illegal Immigrants 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades Three million granted amnesty in million illegal immigrants remained aher 1986 reforms October 1996: INS es<mated there were 5 million illegal immigrants in U.S. Since August 2005: Es<mates of illegal popula<on have ranged between 7 million and 15 million Today: An es<mated 11.5 million unauthorized immigrants reside in U.S.
29 NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, Year All Classes Exchange Visitors Academic & Voca3onal Students ,756, ,023 (1%) 271,861 (2%) ,539, ,213 (1%) 285,496 (3%) ,574, ,644 (1%) 355,207 (2%) ,640, ,364 (1%) 395,480 (2%) ,690, ,743 (1%) 699,953 (2%) ,824, ,435 (1%) 741,921 (2%) ,907, ,176 (1%) 687,506 (2%) ,381, ,138 (1%) 917,373 (2%) ,082, , 931 (1%) 1,702,730 (3%)
30
31 U.S. Immigrant Population, Number of Immigrants (in millions) Year
32 U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2011 Race/Ethnicity Foreign Popula3on Share of Total (%) Total 40,381, Hispanic 18,788, White Alone, not 7,608, Hispanic Black Alone, not Hispanic Asian Alone, not Hispanic Other Alone, not Hispanic 3,130, ,988, ,
33 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, Race 2010 Population Absolute Change Percentage Change Total 308,745,538 27,323, % Non-Hispanic 258,267,944 12,151, % White 196,817,552 2,264, % Black 37,685,848 3,738, % AI/AN 2,247, , % Asian 14,465,124 4,341, % NH/PI 481, , % 2 or More Races 5,966,481 1,364, % Hispanic 50,477,594 15,171, %
34 NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share US 27,323, South 14,318, Texas 4,293, Florida 2,818, Georgia 1,501, North Carolina 1,486,
35 MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2009 Race Total Male Female United States White Alone White, Non-Hispanic Black Alone AI/AN Alone Asian Alone NH/PI Alone Two or More Races Hispanic September
36 RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White 66% 50% 49.6% Blacks 17% 16% 15.0% Hispanics 15% 26% 26.0% Other 2% 8% 9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).
37 ATLANTA MSA POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, Race 2010 Population Absolute Change Percentage Change Total 5,268,860 1,005, % Non-Hispanic 4,721, , % White 2,671,757 95, % Black 1,679, , % AI/AN 10,734 2, % Asian 252, , % NH/PI 2, % Some other race 13,732 5, % 2 or More Races 90,673 37, % Hispanic 547, , %
38 Median Age and Fer3lity Rates for Females in Atlanta MSA, Demographic Group All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Na3ve Asian Na3ve Hawaiian & Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic Na3ve Born Foreign Born Source: *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months. Median Age Fer3lity/1000 women*
39 RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White 67% 47% Blacks 12.8% 13% Hispanics 14% 29% Asian 5% 9% Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.
40 The Graying of America The Silver Tsunami is about to hit
41 Key Drivers Changes in Longevity Declining Fer3lity Aging of Boomer Cohort
42 U.S. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH YEAR AGE
43 Centenarians in the U.S. Year Number , , ,000
44 COMPLETED FERTILITY FOR WOMEN YEARS OLD Year Percent Childless Avg. Number of Children Percent Higher Order Births* *Three or more Children
45 TOTAL FERTILITY RATES FOR U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ ETHNICITY, 2012 Race/Ethnicity Total Fertility Rate All Races 1.88 Hispanic 2.18 Non-Hispanic White 1.76 Blacks 1.90 Asian 1.77 Native American 1.35
46 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, Age 2010 Absolute Change Percentage Change < TOTAL 104,853,555 5,416, % 82,134,554-2,905, % 81,489,445 19,536, % 40,267,984 5,276, % 308,745,538 27,323, %
47 U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, ( ) Age 50 Age 55 Age 62 Age 65 Average Number/Day 12,344 11,541 9,221 8,032 Average Number/Minute September
48 Absolute and Percent Population Change by Age, Age All Ages < United States 27,323,632 (9.7%) 5,416,292 (5.4%) - 2,905,697 (- 3.4%) 19,536,809 (31.5%) 5,276,231 (15.1%) Atlanta MSA 1,005,422 (23.6% ) 341,205 (22.2%) 89,166 (5.9%) 431,888 (48.4%) 143,163 (43.6%)
49 The Multigenerational Workforce
50 Multi-Generational Diversity Generation Birth Years Current Ages Est. Workforce Participation in 2013* Veterans Traditionalists WWII Generation Silent Generation Baby Boomers Boomers % (7M) % (60M) Generation X Baby Busters Generation Y Millennials % (51M) % (40M) September *Source: AARP Leading a Multi-Generational Workforce, 2007
51 Succession Planning & Accommodations for Elder Care Organiza<onal Game Changers!
52 Signs of Global Aging Japan sells more adult diapers than baby diapers. Vancouver outlaws use of door knobs in all new construc<on, including private homes. China grappling with the problem. Census Benchmark for White Americans: More Deaths than Births (Roberts, 2013).
53 Family Life is Changing Ozzie and Harriet are no longer the norm!
54 Marrying Out is In September
55 INTERMARRIAGE TREND, % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity September
56 INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008 September
57
58 Living Arrangements are more diverse And Interes<ng!
59 COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA S WELL And Grandpa s Too!
60 Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent Households, Household Type Absolute Number 2010 Absolute Change All 74,718 2, No Grandparents 67, Both Grandparents Grandmother Only 2, , Grandfather Only Percent Change September
61 Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent-Headed Households by Presence of Parents, 2010 Household Type All Children (in thousands) Living with Both Parents Living with Mother Only Living with Father Only All 74, % 23.1% 3.4% 4.0% No Grandparents Both Grandparents Grandmother Only Grandfather Only 67, % 21.2% 3.3% 2.1% Living with Neither parent 2, % 40.6% 5.2% 36.1% 1, % 48.4% 4.5% 33.2% % 45.9% 4.4% 23.6% September
62 Type of Couple Couple Households with Children, 2009 Number of Households with Children Percent Own Children Married 23,453, opposite sex Unmarried 2,493, opposite sex Same Sex 104, Percent Unrelated Children
63 Same Sex Couple Households with Children, 2009 Type of Couple Number of Households with Children Percent Own Children Same Sex 104, Unmarried 33, Male- Male Unmarried Female- Female 71, Percent Unrelated Children
64 DIVERSITY RULES...but Challenges Abound September
65 Workforce Planning and Development Challenges The End of Men? The Triple Whammy of Geographic Disadvantage Educa<on necessary, but not sufficient
66 The End of Men?
67 FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION % Female
68 JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) 2009 (Q3) RECESSION Industry Women Men Construction -106,000-1,300,000 Manufacturing -106,000-1,900,000 Healthcare +451, ,100 Government +176, ,000 Total -1,700,000-4,700,000
69 THE PLIGHT OF MEN Today, three <mes as many men of working age do not work at all compared to Selec<ve male withdrawal from labor market rising non- employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabili<es & incarcera<on. The percentage of prime- aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 aher accoun<ng for infla<on. Aher peaking in 1977, male college comple<on rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.
70 COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010 DEGREE MALE FEMALE DIFFERENCE Associate s 293, , ,000 Bachelor s 702, , ,000 Master s 257, , ,000 Professional 46,800 46, Doctor s 31,500 32,900 1,400 TOTAL 1,330,300 1,902, ,000
71 Area ENROLLMENT IN 2 YEAR COLLEGES, 2009 Total Enrollment Full Time Enrollment (%) Male Enrollment (%) Black Enrollment (%) U.S. 20,966, Southeast 4,731, Region North Carolina NC- 2 Yr Colleges 574, ,
72 UNC SYSTEM STUDENT ENROLLMENT BY GENDER AND TYPE OF INSTITUTION, Type of Institution Total Enrollment 2010 Male Enrollment Percent Male UNC System 175,281 76, Majority Serving 139,250 63, Minority Serving 36,031 13, HBUs 29,865 11,191 37
73 The Triple Whammy of Geographical Disadvantage The Human Capital Challenge
74 Racial Typology of U.S. Counties
75 Racial Typology of U.S. Counties
76 Racial Typology of U.S. Counties
77 Racial Typology of U.S. Counties
78 U.S. Racial Segregation by Census Tract
79 U.S. Racial Segregation by Census Tract
80 U.S. Racial Segregation by Census Tract
81 U.S. Racial Segregation by Census Tract
82 U.S. School Age Poverty by Census Tract
83 U.S. School Age Poverty by Census Tract
84 U.S. School Age Poverty by Census Tract
85 U.S. School Age Poverty by Census Tract
86 The Triple Whammy of Geographic Disadvantage
87 Summary Indicators of Exposure Level of Vulnerability Number of Youth Percent Non- White Triple Whammy 9.8 million 93 Double Whammy 12.2 million 81 Single Whammy 20.0 million 39 No Whammy 32.1 million 24
88
89
90
91 Male-Female Presence Disparity 6400 Total Number of EOC Test Takers Number of Test Takers males females / / / /2011 Year Graph shows total number of male and female students tested of 6 LEAs (Ber<e, Bladen, Duplin, Halifax, Northampton, and Pamlico)
92 Percent of High School Graduates Requiring Remedial Course Work , , , , , None One Two or MoreHS more GradsPercent of HS Grads
93 The Atlanta MSA Triple Whammy
94 Racial Typology of Atlanta MSA Coun3es
95 Racial Typology of Atlanta MSA Coun3es
96 Racial Typology of Atlanta MSA Coun3es
97 Racial Typology of Atlanta MSA Coun3es
98 Distribu3on of School Age Popula3on by County Typology
99 Atlanta MSA Segrega3on by Census Tract
100 Atlanta MSA Segrega3on by Census Tract
101 Atlanta MSA Segrega3on by Census Tract
102 Atlanta MSA Segrega3on by Census Tract
103 Distribu3on of School Age Popula3on by Race and Level of Neighborhood Segrega3on
104 Atlanta MSA Poverty by Census Tract
105 Atlanta MSA Poverty by Census Tract
106 Atlanta MSA Poverty by Census Tract
107 Atlanta MSA Poverty by Census Tract
108 Distribu3on of School Age Popula3on by Race and Level of Neighborhood Poverty
109 The Triple Whammy of Geographic Disadvantage
110 Education is Necessary...but insufficient
111 BACHELOR S DEGREE HOLDERS (UNDER AGE 25) WHO WERE JOBLESS OR UNDEREMPLOYED Year Percent
112 CHANGE IN INCIDENCE OF POVERTY BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN NC, , Educational Attainment Percent Change Less than High School 253, , % High School Graduate 216, , % Some College, Associate Degree 136, , % Bachelor s degree or higher 49,082 57, % Source: American Community Survey
113 THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT Analy<cal Reasoning Entrepreneurial Acumen Contextual Intelligence Soh Skills/Cultural Elas<city Agility and Flexibility
114 Implications for Workforce Planning and Development Manage the transi<on from the graying to the browning of America. Embrace immigrants. Address the wayward sons problem in U.S. educa<on and labor markets. Become more ac<vely involved in K- 12 educa<on as a form of enlightened self- interest. Establish stronger <es with business to ensure that students graduate with the requisite skills to add value and enhance U.S. compe<<veness in an ever- changing global marketplace. Adopt the Iceberg Model of Diversity
115 Race/Skin Color Gender Visible Disability Age Group Iceberg Model of Diversity Visible Diversity Traits Ethnicity Physical Attributes Invisible Diversity Traits If all I know about you is what I can see Level in Organization Culture Marital Status Values Education MBTI Religion/Religious Experiences International Cultural Immersion Communication Style Conflict Style Beliefs Teaching Style Recreational Habits IQ Learning Styles Academic Discipline Literacy Sexual Orientation Personality Style Orientation to Time Family Relationships Orientation to Tasks Physical Abilities/Qualities EQ Military Experience Socioeconomic Status Geographic Background Work Background Smoker/Non-Smoker Parental Status Native Born/Non-Native Born Political Ideology Thinking Style
116 Responding to the Crisis Leveraging the Power of Collec<ve Ambi<on!
117 Collective Ambition Supersedes individual goals and aspira<ons. Takes into account the key elements required to achieve and sustain excellence at the organiza<onal & community levels. Provides a framework that paves the way for successful organiza<onal & community change. October 2012
118 FOUNDATIONS OF COLLECTIVE AMBITION Collabora<ve Engagement (glue) Disciplined Execu<on of Strategy (grease)
119 Collaborative Engagement Making sure everybody is on the bus, in the right seat, headed in the right direc<on. Convincing aging empty nesters that they do have a dog in the K- 12 educa<on fight.
120 BUILDING COLLECTIVE AMBITION Government Private Sector Higher Educa3on Faith Community Philanthropic Community
121 The Strategy Challenge Most organiza<ons are long on vision and mission and short on strategy the road map for change. Explicit ac<ons are required to achieve vision and mission. Key community stakeholders must understand their specific roles in strategy execu<on. Key targets & milestones must be established to assess progress toward vision and mission. Leaders must be vigilant in strategy execu<on and not hesitate to adjust strategy when necessary. Failure is an op<on.
122 Postscript We must view solving The Triple Whammy of Geographic Disadvantage conundrum as a form of enlightened self- interest a strategic impera<ve for our communi<es and our na<on in the hyper- compe<<ve global economy of the 21 st century.
123 THE END
124 Supplemental Slides
125 Type of Demographic Change by County in Atlanta MSA
126 Area Estimated Change Atlanta MSA, Total Popula3on Change Natural Change Net Migra3on Atlanta MSA 236, , ,057
127 Net Migration Atlanta MSA, Area Total Net Interna3onal Domes3c Migra3on Net Migra3on Net Migra3on Atlanta MSA 100,057 53,103 46,954
128 County Balanced Growth Counties, Total Popula3on Change Natural Change Net Migra3on Dawson Pickens Barrow 2,086 1, Rockdale 1,704 1, Newton 2,488 1, Walton 1,986 1, Paulding 4,626 3,452 1,016 Dawson Pickens
129 County Balanced Growth Counties, , Cont d Total Popula3on Change Natural Change Net Migra3on Douglas 4,064 2,943 1,018 Fayeze 1, ,465 Henry 7,249 4,068 3,111 Coweta 5,863 2,595 3,239 Cherokee 10,760 5,187 5,585 Cobb 29,114 18,538 10,519 Forsyth 19,894 4,188 15,468 Gwinnez 53,980 25,880 27,695 Fulton 63,710 23,808 38,364
130 County Natural Growth Communities, Total Popula3on Change Natural Change Net Migra3on Clayton 4,753 8,843-4,189 DeKalb 21,450 22, Bartow 1,116 1, Carroll 1,740 1,
131 Emptying Out Communities, County Total Popula3on Change Natural Change Net Migra3on Heard Morgan Haralson Pike Lamar Buzs Jasper Spalding
132 Dying Communities, County Total Popula3on Change Natural Change Net Migra3on Meriwether
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