The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program Robert Puentes, Fellow

Transcription

1 The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program Robert Puentes, Fellow A Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Housing National Multi Housing Council Research Forum March 26, 2007 St. Louis, MO

2 A Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Housing CONTEXT FOR THE DISCUSSION Five broad demographic trends Affect of those trends on metropolitan areas Thoughts on metropolitan housing demand

3 Profound demographic, economic, social, and cultural forces are reshaping the nation Demographically, the country is growing, aging, and diversifying. Economically, the nation is being transformed by globalization, deindustrialization, and technological innovation. Culturally, the nation is changing its attitude towards cities and urban living.

4 The result: Cities and first suburbs have an opportunity to attract and retain young professionals, childless couples, baby boomers, new immigrants and the assets of the knowledge economy

5 A Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Housing Context for the discussion FIVE BROAD DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Affect of those trends on metropolitan areas Thoughts on metropolitan housing demand

6 Population Growth Immigration Aging Household Internal Migration Formation

7 The 1990s presented the strongest growth in four decades. And it continues through the current decade. US population growth % 20% 15% 10% 5% Decade 0% Source: Census Numerical increase (in millions) Percent Increase

8 Single person households made up -- by far -- the largest increase in household type since Other family, 1,758,377 Nonfamily, 3,416,246 1-person household, 11,825,702 Absolute change in households, Single female w /kids, 4,680,913 Single male w /kids, 2,165,939 Married no kids, 5,476,979 Married w /kids, 1,376,788 Source: Frey and Berube, 2003 and updated

9 Despite a decade of rapid immigration, the share of the U.S. population that is foreign-born is lower now than in the 1900s Total foreignborn and percent, Population in Millions % Foreign Born Population (in millions) Percent of Total Population 14.7% 13.2% 11.6% 8.8% 6.9% 5.4% 4.7% 6.2% 7.9% 11.1% 12.4% 16% 12% 8% 4% Percent of Total Population - 0% Source: Singer *

10 At the same time, the U.S. population is aging rapidly. US Age Distribution, 1970 vs Male Female Male Female <5 <5 <5 10% 5% - 5% 10% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Source: Census

11 Minorities, however, have younger age structures than whites, and differences will become more pronounced US Age Distribution Non-Hispanic White Hispanic 2000 Non-Hispanic White Hispanic 2025 Source: Census

12 Demographic change is also being driven by couples delaying marriage and having fewer children Age at first marriage, Source: U.S. Census Bureau Men Women

13 As men and women are delaying marriage and having fewer children, household size is declining Household Size Persons per household, Source: U.S. Census Bureau

14 The demographic components of change reveal increasingly sharp differences between states. Source: Frey, 2002 New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States

15 The demographic components of change reveal increasingly sharp differences between states. 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Immigration Domestic Natural New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland Demographic components of change, Source: Census Arizona Colorado Georgia Texas California New York Minnesota Missouri Pennsylvania

16 A Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Housing Context for the discussion Four broad demographic trends AFFECT OF THOSE TRENDS ON METROPOLITAN AREAS Thoughts on metropolitan housing demand

17 City resurgence Uneven growth Racial diversity Job sprawl Geography of poverty

18 Recent demographic and market changes have already led to a surge of population in cities and downtowns. 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Total population, 45 U.S. downtowns, % -2% 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 1,000, ,000 Population growth in 50 largest cities, , , Source: Census

19 The majority of downtowners in 2000 lived alone; the next largest group contained young couples and empty nesters Downtown households by type, 2000 Other nonfamily 11% Married with kids 6% Married without kids 14% Other family with kids 5% Other family without kids 5% Living alone 59% Source: Birch, 2005

20 Younger workers (age 25-44) form the largest number of downtowners, but older workers (age 45-64) are catching up Downtown residents by age, Source: Birch, , , , , , , ,000 50, Kids Students Younger workers (Under 18) (18-24) Older workers (25-44) (45-64) Seniors (Over 65)

21 The primary determinant for how a city grows is based on the metropolitan area it is in. City Category Number of Cities City Population Change Metro Population Change Rapid Growth (over 20%) 18 31% 26% Significant Growth (10 to 20%) 23 15% 22% Moderate Growth (2 to 10%) 33 6% 13% No Growth (-2 to 2%) 6 0% 11% Loss (below -2%) 20-7% 6% Source: Berube, 2003

22 City resurgence Uneven growth Racial diversity Job sprawl Geography of poverty

23 Population is continuing to decentralize in nearly every U.S. metropolitan area Selected cities and suburbs, population growth % 40% 44% 37% City Suburbs 30% 22% 20% 16% 19% 18% 10% 6% 4% 7% 9% 0% Atlanta Chicago Denver Memphis Top 100 Source: Census

24 Every household type grew at faster rates in the suburbs than in cities 45% 35% Central City Suburbs Population growth, % 15% 5% Source: Frey, % All Households Married - no children Married - with children Other Family - no children Other Family - with children Nonfamily

25 While many cities are healthy and vibrant, others are not Nearly 17 million Americans live in a weak market city Source: Wolman and Furdell, George Washington University Weak market cities rank in the bottom 3rd across a range of economic indicators (ex. unemployment, poverty, income)

26 From 1980 to 2000 the states with the highest rate of rural land loss were concentrated in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Loss in developable rural land, >20% 10-20% 2-10% <2% Source: Theobald, 2005

27 City resurgence Uneven growth Racial diversity Job sprawl Geography of poverty

28 The country is becoming increasingly diverse Black 11.7% Asian 2.8% Hispanic 9.0% Native American 0.7% Other 0.1% Hispanic 14.4% Native American 0.7% Asian 4.3% Two or more races 1.3% White 75.6% Black 12.2% White 66.9% Share of population by race/ethnicity, 1990 and 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

29 In aggregate, the racial makeup of the 100 largest cities has shifted. The top hundred cities are now majority minority 7% Share of population by race and ethnicity, 2000 White Black Hispanic Asian Multi-racial 23% 44% 24% Source: Census

30 The percent of each racial/ethnic group living in the suburbs increased substantially Share of population by race and ethnicity, 1990, % 51% 55% 46% 50% 33% Source: Census Blacks Asians Hispanics

31 If not for immigration, several of the nation s largest cities would not have grown during the 1990s 20% 15% 18.1% Overall Without immigration Population growth with and without foreign-born, % 9.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 5% 1.7% 4.6% 4.0% 2.6% 0% -5% -1.4% -3.9% -1.7% -3.9% -10% Dallas New York Minneapolis Chicago Boston

32 Yet in many metro areas, the locus of immigration is shifting from the central city to the suburbs 100% 75% 50% Percent of foreignborn population in suburbs, 2000 In the U.S. 48% of all immigrants live in suburbs 25% 0% Atlanta Washington Miami Las Vegas Portland Chicago Los Angeles San Francisco Charlotte New York Source: Singer, New Immigrant Gateways, Brookings, 2003

33 Older, inner-ring first suburbs are now home to a large and growing number of foreign-born residents. 10,000,000 First Suburbs Primary Cities New er Suburbs 8,000,000 6,000,000 Foreign-born population, ,000,000 2,000, Source: Puentes and Warren, 2006

34 City resurgence Uneven growth Racial diversity Job sprawl Geography of poverty

35 Over half of all jobs in large metropolitan areas are located more than 10 miles outside of downtowns. Share of jobs within 3-, 10-, and greater- than-10- mile radius of center, % Outside 10 miles 17% Inside 3 miles 31% Between 3 and 10 miles Source: Berube, undated

36 But the level of employment decentralization varies widely across metropolitan areas. Portland Minneapolis New York San Francisco Denver Chicago < 3 miles 3-10 miles >10 miles Los Angeles Houston Atlanta Source: Berube, undated

37 In many metros, an exit ramp economy dominates office development. Share of metropolitan office space (SQ FT), % Central business district Edge cities Edgeless space 40% 20% Source: Lang, % Chicago Denver Los Angeles San Fran

38 City resurgence Uneven growth Racial diversity Job sprawl Geography of poverty

39 Most of America s poor live in large metropolitan suburbs. But residents of large cities are twice as likely to be poor. Below-poverty population by location, 2005* Percentage of people in poverty, Source: American Community Survey * Estimates are roughly +/- 0.5 % pts. Large Suburbs Smaller Cities/Towns Micropolitan/Rural Large Cities

40 During the 1990s, the number of high-poverty neighborhoods in central cities dropped significantly In Chicago, the number of high poverty tracts fell from 187 to

41 While the number of high-poverty areas is dropping sharply in cities, it is increasing at an alarming rate in first suburbs 10% Percent of census tracts in first suburbs exceeding specified poverty thresholds, % 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Tracts with 20% poverty rate Tracts with 30% poverty rate Tracts with 40% poverty rate Source: Puentes and Warren, 2006

42 A Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Housing Context for the discussion Five Broad Demographic Trends Affect of those trends on metropolitan areas THOUGHTS ON METROPOLITAN HOUSING DEMAND

43 Five key takeaways In 2030, about half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop will have been built after Household formation will have profoundly important impacts. Childless married-couple and single-person households will grow rapidly. Older, inner-ring first suburbs will figure prominently in conversations about metropolitan growth and development. The nation will continue to get much more diverse and multi-cultural. Suburbs especially will have to adapt. Demographics are not the only determinant of our urban future: economic restructuring, globalization, energy, education, governance.

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