Disruptive Demographics and North Carolina s Global Competitiveness Challenge

Transcription

1 Disruptive Demographics and North Carolina s Global Competitiveness Challenge James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill March 2014

2 OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Discussion

3 what CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL March 2014

4 6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises Again The Browning of America Marrying Out is In The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandma s Well and Grandpa s Too!

5 The South Continues To Rise...Again!

6 Years SOUTH S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, U.S. Absolute Population Change South s Absolute Population Change South s Share of Change ,974,129 8,468,303 27% ,123,138 9,339,455 33% ,886,128 15,598,279 30% ,497,947 22,650,563 50% ,035,665 29,104,814 49%

7 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY Region REGION, Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S. 309,050,816 26,884, % Northeast 55,417,311 1,753, % Midwest 66,972,887 2,480, % South 114,555,744 14,318, % West 72,256,183 8,774, % North Carolina 9,535,483 1,486, %

8 SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population Change Percent of Total UNITED STATES 26,884, NORTHEAST 1,753, MIDWEST 2,480, SOUTH 14,318, WEST 8,774,

9 NET MIGRATION TRENDS, Northeast Midwest South West Total -1,032-2,008 +2, Black Hispanic Elderly Foreign born = Net Import = Net Export

10 STATE SHARE OF SOUTH S NET GROWTH, Region/State Absolute Change State s Share The South 14,318, % Texas 4,293, % Florida 2,818, % Georgia 1,501, % North Carolina 1,486, % Other Southern States 4,218, %

11 NC COUNTIES WITH THE LARGEST ABSOLUTE POPULATION GAINS,

12 NC COUNTIES EXPERIENCING POPULATION DECLINE,

13 Counties with Biologically Declining Populations, 2009 Alleghany Ashe Surry Stokes Person Northampton Pasquotank Caswell VanceWarren Gates Granville Hertford Camden Watauga Rockingham Wilkes Halifax Currituck Yadkin Chowan Forsyth Perquimans MitchellAvery Guilford Orange Franklin Bertie Caldwell Nash MadisonYancey Alexander Davie Alamance Durham Edgecombe Washington Iredell Wake Martin McDowell Davidson Tyrrell Burke Randolph Dare Rowan Chatham HaywoodBuncombe Catawba Wilson Pitt Beaufort Swain Lincoln Lee Johnston Hyde Rutherford Cleveland Cabarrus Greene Montgomery Graham Henderson Stanly Harnett Wayne Jackson Polk Gaston Moore Lenoir Craven Cherokee Macon Transylvania Mecklenburg Cumberland Pamlico Clay Union AnsonRichmondHoke Sampson Jones Duplin Scotland Onslow Carteret Robeson Bladen Pender 4 Columbus New Hanover Brunswick Legend Deaths > Births Deaths < Births Miles

14 GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, The Region Domestic Foreign Years In Out Net In Out Net ,125,096 3,470, , , , , ,874,414 3,477, , , , ,300 Florida Domestic Foreign Years In Out Net In Out Net , , ,002 41,745 24,108 17, , ,087-13,156 33,095 32,094 1,001

15 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY Region REGION, Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S. 316,128,839 6,802, % Northeast 55,943, , % Midwest 67,547, , % South 118,383,453 3,525, % West 74,254,423 2,138, % North Carolina 9,848, , %

16 SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population Change Percent of Total UNITED STATES 6,802, NORTHEAST 566, MIDWEST 571, SOUTH 3,525, WEST 2,138,

17 STATE SHARES OF SOUTH S NET GROWTH, Region/State Absolute Change State s Share The South 3,525, % Texas 1,203, % Florida 736, % Georgia 278, % North Carolina 258, % Virginia 235, % Other Southern States 812, %

18 NC Biologically Declining Counties,

19 Net Importers and Exporters of Population,

20 THE BROWNING OF NORTH CAROLINA

21 Number of Immigrants (in millions) U.S. Immigrant Population, Year

22 U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2011 Race/Ethnicity Foreign Population Share of Total (%) Total 40,381, Hispanic 18,788, White Alone, not Hispanic Black Alone, not Hispanic Asian Alone, not Hispanic Other Alone, not Hispanic 7,608, ,130, ,988, ,

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24 NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND ETHNICITY, % 547% 332% 129% 127% 133% 182% Native Immigrant White Black Hispanic Asian Pacific Islander

25 NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share US 27,323, South 14,318, Texas 4,293, Florida 2,818, Georgia 1,501, NC 1,486,

26 CONTRIBUTIONS OF NON-WHITES & HISPANICS TO NC POPULATION Area CHANGE, Absolute Population Change Percent Non- White* Percent Hispanic All Counties 1,486, Tier 1 Counties 69, Tier 2 Counties 327, Tier 3 Counties 1,088, Source: Census 2000 and Census *Non-whites include Blacks, Hispanics, American Indians and Alaskan Natives, Asians, Native Hawaiians & Pacific Islanders, and people of two or more races.

27 Marrying Out is In October

28 INTERMARRIAGE TREND, % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity October

29 INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008 October

30 OUT-MARRIAGE PATTERNS BY RACE AND GENDER, NC Hispanic Men 21.4 Hispanic Women 21.6 Black Men 9.4 Black Women 3.4 White Female 18.0 White Male 16.4 White Female 6.0 White Male 0.6 Black Female 1.5 Black Male 3.7 Hispanic Female 1.4 Hispanic Male 1.9 Asian Female 0.7 Asian Male 0.2 Asian Female 0.5 Asian Male 0.1 Other Female 1.2 Other Male 1.3 Other Female 1.5 Other Male 0.9 White Men 3.3 White Women 3.4 Asian Men 12.3 Asian Women 31.4 Hispanic Female 1.1 Hispanic Male 1.2 White Female 10.0 Hispanic Male 1.5 Black Female 0.3 Black Male 1.1 Black Female 0.6 White Male 25.8 Asian Female 0.9 Asian Male 0.2 Hispanic Female 0.5 Black Male 2.7 Other Female 1.0 Other Male 0.9 Other Female 1.2 Other Male 1.3

31 Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in North Carolina, Demographic Group All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic Native Born Foreign Born Source: *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months. Median Age Fertility/1000 women*

32 RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White 66% 50% 49.6% Blacks 17% 16% 15.0% Hispanics 15% 26% 26.0% Other 2% 8% 9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

33 CHANGE IN THE RACE/ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF NC PUBLIC SCHOOLS, Group 2009 Enrollment 2000 Enrollment Absolute Change Percent Change Share of Net Change Total. 1,427,960 1,268, , % AI/AN 20,378 18,651 1, % Black 444, ,712 51, % Asian 35,140 23,576 11, % Hispanic 152,605 56,232 96, % White 774, ,251-1, Source: DPI, The Statistical Profile Online

34 NC s SILVER TSUNAMI

35 Absolute and Percent Population Change by Age, Age United States North Carolina All Ages < ,323,632 (9.7%) 5,416,292 (5.4%) -2,905,697 (-3.4%) 19,536,809 (31.5%) 5,276,231 (15.1%) 1,486,170 (18.5%) 449,385 (16.2%) 73,209 (2.9%) 698,545 (38.6% ) 265,031 (27.3% )

36 U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, ( ) Age 50 Age 55 Age 62 Age 65 Average Number/Day 12,344 11,541 9,221 8,032 Average Number/Minute October

37 DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE AMERICAN SOUTH Source: Census 2010

38 NC ABSOLUTE POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, Age All Counties Tier 3 Counties Tier 2 Counties All Ages 1,486,170 1,088, ,859 69,365 <25 449, ,818 85,481-5, , ,248-36,139-49, , , ,101 88, , ,175 79,416 36,440 Tier 1 Counties

39 Dependency Rates for North Carolina and Economic Development Tiers, Dependency Rate North Carolina 68.7 Tier Tier Tier

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41 COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA S WELL And Grandpa s Too!

42 Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent Households, Household Type Absolute Number 2010 Absolute Change All 74,718 2, No Grandparents 67, Both Grandparents Grandmother Only 2, , Grandfather Only Percent Change October

43 Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent-Headed Households by Presence of Parents, 2010 Household Type All Children (in thousands) Living with Both Parents Living with Mother Only Living with Father Only All 74, % 23.1% 3.4% 4.0% No Grandparents Both Grandparents Grandmother Only Grandfather Only 67, % 21.2% 3.3% 2.1% Living with Neither parent 2, % 40.6% 5.2% 36.1% 1, % 48.4% 4.5% 33.2% % 45.9% 4.4% 23.6% October

44 GRANDPARENTS LIVING WITH GRANDCHILDREN AGES 18 AND YOUNGER IN NORTH CAROLINA Total Households with Grandparents Grandparents Responsible for Grandchildren Child's Parents in Household Percent Change 146, , , , ,679 67,

45 The End of Men?

46 FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION % Female

47 JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) 2009 (Q3) RECESSION Industry Women Men Construction -106,000-1,300,000 Manufacturing -106,000-1,900,000 Healthcare +451, ,100 Government +176, ,000 Total -1,700,000-4,700,000

48 THE PLIGHT OF MEN Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to Selective male withdrawal from labor market rising non-employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.

49 COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010 DEGREE MALE FEMALE DIFFERENCE Associate s 293, , ,000 Bachelor s 702, , ,000 Master s 257, , ,000 Professional 46,800 46, Doctor s 31,500 32,900 1,400 TOTAL 1,330,300 1,902, ,000

50 Area ENROLLMENT IN 2 YEAR COLLEGES, 2009 Total Enrollment Full Time Enrollment (%) Male Enrollment (%) Black Enrollment (%) U.S. 20,966, Southeast Region North Carolina NC- 2 Yr Colleges 4,731, , ,

51 UNC SYSTEM STUDENT ENROLLMENT BY GENDER AND TYPE OF INSTITUTION, 2010 Type of Institution Total Enrollment Male Enrollment Percent Male UNC System 175,281 76, Majority Serving Minority Serving 139,250 63, ,031 13, HBUs 29,865 11,191 37

52 Percentage Passed Average EOG Scores Math 8 EOG Scores Boys Girls State Avg / / / /2011 Year Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

53 Percentage Passed Average EOG Scores Reading 8 EOG Scores Boys Girls State Avg / / / /2011 Year Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

54 Percentage Passed Average EOC Scores Algebra 1 EOC Scores Boys Girls State Avg / / / /2011 Year Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

55 % of Students Passing EOC Composite Scores EOC Composite Pass Rates Males Females State / / / /2011 Year Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

56 Number of Test Takers Male-Female Presence Disparity 6400 Total Number of EOC Test Takers males females / / / /2011 Year Graph shows total number of male and female students tested of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Duplin, Halifax, Northampton, and Pamlico)

57 Percent Graduated High School Graduation Rates Graduation Rates (LEAs Grouped) Boys Girls / / / /2011 Year Avg. graduation rates of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

58 The Minority Male Challenge

59 EOG Pass Rate Third Grade EOG Reading Test Pass Rates For Males by Race/Ethnicity 80% 70% 65% 66% 68% 69% 60% 50% 40% 55% 38% 59% 57% 55% 52% 52% 50% 45% 46% 46% 48% 49% 43% White Boys Black Boys Latino Boys American Indian 30% 33% 31% 20% Year

60 EOG Pass Rate Third Grade EOG Math Test Pass Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity 100% 90% 84% 90% 90% 90% 90% 80% 76% 77% 79% 80% 70% 67% 74% 75% 80% 77% White Boys Black Boys 60% 67% 65% 65% 67% 68% Latino Boys American Indian 50% 54% 40% Year

61 EOG Pass Rate Eighth Grade EOG Reading Test Pass Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity 100% 90% 80% 77% 80% 80% 81% 70% 66% 60% 50% 40% 30% 32% 35% 54% 49% 44% 54% 48% 43% 55% 56% 56% 52% 50% 48% White Boys Black Boys Latino Boys American Indian 20% 30% Year

62 EOG Pass Rate Eighth Grade EOG Math Test Pass Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity 100% 90% 87% 89% 89% 90% 80% 70% 60% 78% 56% 77% 73% 74% 66% 65% 65% 79% 80% 78% 77% 67% 68% White Boys Black Boys Latino Boys American Indian 50% 51% 54% 40% Year

63 DIVERSITY RULES...but Challenges Abound September

64 September

65 Percent of High School Graduates Requiring Remedial Course Work , , , , , None One Two or MoreHS more GradsPercent of HS Grads

66 Education is Necessary...but insufficient

67 BACHELOR S DEGREE HOLDERS (UNDER AGE 25) WHO WERE JOBLESS OR UNDEREMPLOYED Year Percent

68 CHANGE IN INCIDENCE OF POVERTY BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN NC, , Educational Attainment Percent Change Less than High School 253, , % High School Graduate 216, , % Some College, Associate Degree 136, , % Bachelor s degree or higher 49,082 57, % Source: American Community Survey

69 THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT Analytical Reasoning Entrepreneurial Acumen Contextual Intelligence Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity Agility and Flexibility

70 Implications for Workforce Planning and Development Managing transition from the graying to the browning of America. Competition for talent will be fierce and global. Successful recruitment and retention will hinge on your ability to effectively manage the full nexus of diversity issues. September

71 MOVING FORWARD Higher Education must become more actively engaged in K-12 Education. Improve Male Education Outcomes Embrace immigrants Education and business must establish stronger ties to ensure that students graduate with the requisite skills to compete in an ever-changing global economy. Prepare students for the freelance economy. Augment efforts to recruit plants with a human capital recruitment strategy (particularly to attract the NC born and bred).