People on the Move: Implications for Career Education

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1 People on the Move: Implications for Career Education James H. Johnson, Jr. Ph.D. William Rand Kenan, Jr. Distinguished Professor of Management Kenan-Flagler Business School Director, Urban Investment Strategies Center Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill June

2 Overview Disruptive Demographics Impending Demographic Challenges Implications for Workforce Planning & Development June

3 Disruptive Demographics Browning of America Greying of America Nexus of diversity issues undergirding these two demographic shifts June

4 Core Values Family Personal and Lifestyle Characteristics by Veterans ( ) Respect for authority Conformers Discipline Traditional Nuclear Generation Baby Boomers ( ) Optimism Involvement Disintegrating Generation X ( ) Skepticism Fun Informality Latch-key kids Education A dream A birthright A way to get there Generation Y ( ) Realism Confidence Extreme fun Social Merged families An incredible expense June Source: FDU Magazine Online Winter/Spring 2005

5 Personal and Lifestyle Characteristics by Communication Media Dealing with Money Generation (cont d) Veterans ( ) Rotary phones One-on-one Write a memo Put it away Pay cash Baby Boomers ( ) Touch-tone phones Call me anytime Buy now, pay later Generation X ( ) Cell phones Call me only at work Cautious Conservative Save, save, save Generation Y ( ) Internet Picture phones Earn to spend June Source: FDU Magazine Online Winter/Spring 2005

6 People on the Move June

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8 The Numbers Legal Immigrants: : 206,000 annually : 561,000 annually : 800,654 annually : 879,400 annually Refugees, Parolees, Asylees : 2.1 million (65,000 annually) : 428,361 (85,672 annually) : 487,386 (81,231 annually) Illegal Immigrants: 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades Three million granted amnesty in million illegal immigrants remained in U.S. after 1986 reforms October 1996: INS estimated that there were 5 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. August 2005: Illegal population range from 7 to 15 million. June

9 Non-Immigrants Admitted to Year United States, Selected Years, All Classes Exchange Visitors Academic & Vocational Students ,756, ,023 (1%) 271,861 (2%) ,539, ,213 (1%) 285,496 (3%) ,574, ,644 (1%) 355,207 (2%) ,640, ,364 (1%) 395,480 (2%) ,690, ,743 (1%) 699,953 (2%) ,824, ,435 (1%) 741,921 (2%) ,907, ,176 (1%) 687,506 (2%) ,781, ,777(1%) 656,373(2%) June 2009 Source: Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service

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11 Immigration Population, Number of Immigrants (in millions) Year June 2009 Source: Center for Immigration Studies; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey 11

12 World Region of Birth for U.S. Population, ,619, ,709,906 Year ,767, ,379, ,244,000 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percent Europe Asia Latin America Other Areas June 2009 Source: Historical Census Statistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States: ; Current Population Survey 12

13 Population Estimations by Race/Ethnicity, Group Percent Change All Races 50% Whites 29% Blacks 94% Native Americans 109% Hispanics 238% Asians/Pacific Islanders 412% June

14 U.S. Fertility Rate by Race/Ethnicity, 2006 Race/Ethnicity Number of Children Avg. U.S. Women 1.9 Asian Women 1.7 White, Non-Hispanic 1.8 Black 2.0 Hispanic 2.3 June 2009 Source: Dye (2008) available at pubs/p ,pdf 14

15 America s Color Adjustment Race/Ethnicity White Blacks Hispanics Asian American Indian June

16 Relative Distribution of U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2005 and 2050* Race/Ethnicity White 67% 47% Blacks 12.8% 13% Hispanics 14% 29% Asian 5% 9% June 2009 Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected. 16

17 Women Who Had a Birth in the Last 12 Months, years old, by Select Characteristics, 2006 Characteristic Births per 1,000 Women All U.S. Women 55 Nativity Native Born 52 Foreign Born 71 June 2009 Source: Dye (2008) available at pubs/p ,pdf 17

18 Women Who Had a Birth in the Last 12 Months, years old, by Select Characteristics, 2006 (cont d) Characteristic Births per 1,000 Women All U.S. Women 55 Race White, non-hispanic 50 Black 58 American Indian/Alaska Native 68 Asian 54 Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 61 Some other Race 78 Two or More Races 58 June 2009 Source: Dye (2008) available at pubs/p ,pdf 18

19 Women Who Had a Birth in the Last 12 Months, years old, by Select Characteristics, 2006 (cont d) Characteristic Births per 1,000 Women All U.S. Women 55 Hispanic Origin Hispanic (any race) 74 Non Hispanic 51 June 2009 Source: Dye (2008) available at pubs/p ,pdf 19

20 Women Who Had a Birth in the Last 12 Months, years old, by Select Characteristics, 2006 (cont d) Characteristic Births per 1,000 Women All U.S. Women 55 Citizenship Naturalized Citizen 49 Not a Citizen 83 June 2009 Source: Dye (2008) available at pubs/p ,pdf 20

21 Median Age by Race and Gender, 2006 Race/Ethnicity Both Male Female U.S White Alone White, Not Hispanic Black Alone Hispanic/Latino Asian Alone American Indian/Alaska Native Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Some Other Race Two or More Races June

22 Year Completed Fertility for Women Years Old Percent Childless Avg. Number of Children Percent Higher Order Births* *Three or more Children June 2009 Source: Dye (2008) available at pubs/p ,pdf 22

23 U.S. Total and Foreign Born Population Change, Population Absolute Change % Change Total 281,243,499 33,323, % Foreign Born 32,989,429 11,472, % Hispanic 14,410,703 6,331, % (Foreign Born) Hispanic (Native Born) 20,760,734 7,057, % June 2009 Source: Public Use Microdata Samples, 1990 and 2000 (5% samples) 23

24 Change in Regional Distribution of Foreign Born Population, ,619, ,709,906 Year ,767, ,379, ,244,000 June % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percent West South Midwest Northeast Source: Historical Census Statistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States: ; Current Population Survey 24

25 Percent Change in Total and Foreign Born Population, by Region, % 160% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Northeast 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Midwest 0% Total Foreign born Hispanics (Foreign born) Hispanics (Native born) 0% Total Foreign born Hispanics (Foreign born) Hispanics (Native born) 120% 70% 100% 60% 80% 60% 40% 20% South 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% West 0% Total Foreign born Hispanics (Foreign born) Hispanics (Native born) 0% Total Foreign born Hispanics (Foreign born) Hispanics (Native born) June

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32 States with Fastest Growing Immigrant Populations, % 233% 202% 196% 171% 169% 165% 160% 136% 135% States US Avg 57% NC (1) GA (2) NV (3) AR (4) UT (5) TN (6) NE (7) CO (8) AZ (9) KY (10) June 2009 Source: 1990, 2000 U.S. Census 32

33 States with Fastest Growing Immigrant Populations, % 40% 40% 38% 38% 37% 34% 31% 30% 30% States US Avg. 15% SC (1) TN (2) DE (3) GA (4) AL (5) AR (6) NH (7) NV (8) NC (9) IN (10) June 2009 Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 2005 American Community Survey 33

34 48% 46% 45% 45% 43% 43% States with Fastest Growing Hispanic Populations, % 39% 36% 36% States US Avg 19% AR (1) SC (2) GA (3) TN (4) NV (5) NC (6) NH (7) MD (8) AL (9) SD (10) June 2009 Source: 2000 U.S. Census 34

35 Blacks Return to the South Change in Population, , , , , , , , , , , ,491-42, , ,019 Northeast Midwest South West June

36 Net Population Change Attributable to Non-White Population Growth, Region 2000 Population Net Change % of Net Change Due to Nonwhite Population Growth United States 281,421,906 32,712,033 65% Northeast 53,594,378 2,785, % Midwest 64,392,776 4,724,144 62% South 100,236,820 14,790,890 52% West 63,197,932 10,411,850 69% June 2009 Source: 1990 U.S. Census; 2000 U.S. Census. 36

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38 Net Population Change Attributable to Non-White Population Growth, Region 2004 Population Net Change % of Net Change Due to Nonwhite Population Growth United States 293,655,404 12,233, % Northeast 54,571, , % Midwest 65,729,852 1,337, % South 105,944,965 5,708, % West 67,409,440 4,211, % June 2009 Source: 2000 U.S. Census; 2004 American Community Survey. 38

39 In-Migration, Out-Migration, Net Migration, and Movers from Abroad for Regions, Region In Out Net Internal Migration Movers From Abroad Net Migration (including from abroad) Northeast 3,666 6,178-2,512 2, Midwest 6,978 6, ,641 1,711 South 11,761 9,357 2,404 4,185 6,588 West 6,751 6, ,185 4,222 (data in thousands) June 2009 Source: 39

40 Absolute and Relative Population Change for the U.S. and Census Regions, Region 2000 Population Absolute Change Relative Change United States 281,421,906 32,712, % Northeast 53,594,378 2,785, % Midwest 64,392,776 4,724, % South 100,236,820 14,790, % West 63,197,932 10,411, % June 2009 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 40

41 Population by Race and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2000 RACE & HISPANIC OR LATINO NUMBER % OF TOTAL Total Population 281,421, % One Race 274,595, % White 211,460, % Black or African American 34,658, % American Indian & Alaskan Native 2,475, % Asian 10,242, % Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander 398, % Some other Race 15,359, % Two or More Races 6,826, % Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 35,305, % June 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau of the Census, Census

42 Net Population Change in the United States by Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin, Race and Hispanic or Latino 2000 Population Net Gain Percent Change Total 281,421,906 32,712, % White 211,460,626 11,774, % Black or African American 34,658,190 4,672, % American Indian or Alaska Native 2,475,956 2,475, % Asian 10,242,998 3,334, % Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander 398,835 33, % Some Other Race 15,359,073 5,554, % Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 35,305,818 12,951, % June 2009 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Fact Finder. 42

43 Net Population Change in the United States by Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin, Race and Hispanic or Latino 2005 Population Net Gain Percent Change Total 292,261,463 10,839, % White 218,236,353 6,775, % Black or African American 35,301, , % American Indian or Alaska Native 2,351, , % Asian 12,501,514 2,258, % Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander 387,691-11, % Some Other Race 17,732,254 2,373, % Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 45,733,818 10,428, % June 2009 Source: 2005 American Community Survey, PUMS Estimates; 2000 US Census. 43

44 Aging America: U.S. Median Age, June 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, San Francisco Chronicle 44

45 U.S. Population Turning 50, 55, 62, and 65 Years of Age, Age 50 Age 55 Age 62 Age 65 Average Number / Day 12,344 11,541 9,221 8,032 Average Number / Minute June

46 Absolute and Relative Change in the Gender/Age Composition of the U.S. Population, Gender/Age 2000 Population Net Change % Change Total 281,421,906 32,712, % Male 138,053,563 16,814, % Female 143,368,343 15,897, % Age ,035,178-2,878, % Age ,826,479 20,024, % Age ,274,684 3,126, % Age ,991,753 3,749, % June 2009 Source: U.S. Bureau of Census (2000) 46

47 Absolute and Relative Change in the Gender/Age Composition of the U.S. Population, Gender/Age 2005 Population Net Change % Change Total 292,261,463 10,839, % Male 143,203,258 5,149, % Female 149,058,205 5,689, % Age ,962,739-1,072, % Age ,399,619 3,573, % Age ,528,710 6,254, % Age ,199, , % June 2009 Source: 2000 U.S. Census; 2005 American Community Survey, PUMS Estimates 47

48 Age Profile of UNC-CH Faculty, 2002 Employee Type Number < Average Age Tenured/Tenure Track 1, , (%) (100) (17) (67) (16) Fixed Term (%) (100) (29) (66) (5) Total 2, , (%) (100) (21) (66) (13) June 2009 Source: Institutional Research - University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 48

49 Aging America: U.S. Population 65 and older, selected years, (in millions) June

50 Absolute and Percent Change in U.S. Population by Age, * Age % Change Total % Age % Age % Age % June Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

51 Older Workers in U.S. Workforces 65 or Older 75 or Older % 7.3% % 4.7% June

52 Change in Foreign Born and Hispanic Shares of Working Age Population (18-64), Age * Total 186 million 255 million Hispanic Share 14% 31% Foreign-born Share 15% 23% June 2009 Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected. 52

53 Impending Demographic Challenges June

54 June 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division (2005) 54

55 Population of U.S. children under 18 years by race/ethnicity, income, and other social characteristics, 2004 All Children under 18 Families w/ low income($30,000/yr) Householders or Parents w/ no college experience Householders or Parents w/ no college experience and low income All White Non-white Hispanic 72,879,035 42,845,704 16,142,067 13,891, % 19.5% 43.1% 42.6% 47.7% 41.6% 46.4% 68.2% 18.8% 10.6% 25.9% 35.7% June 2009 Source: American Community Survey (2004). 55

56 Population of U.S. children under 18 years by race/ethnicity, income, and other social characteristics, 2004 All Children under 18 Non-Homeowner Families Foreign-born Head of Household w/ no college experience All White Non-white Hispanic 72,879,035 42,845,704 16,142,067 13,891, % 15.9% 50.8% 66.2% 12.9% 2.8% 10.4% 46.9% June 2009 Source: American Community Survey (2004). 56

57 Implications and Challenges Managing transition from the greying to the browning of America. Competition for talent will be fierce and global. Successful recruitment and retention will hinge on your ability to effectively manage the full nexus of diversity issues. June

58 Work Ethic and Values Workplace Characteristics Veterans ( ) Hard work Respect Authority Sacrifice Duty before fun Adhere to rules by Generation Baby Boomers ( ) Workaholics Work efficiently Crusading causes Personal fulfillment Desire quality Question authority Work is.. An obligation An exciting adventure Generation X ( ) Eliminate the task Self-reliance Want structure and direction Skeptical A difficult challenge A contract Generation Y ( ) What s next Multitasking Tenacity Entrepreneurial Tolerant Goal Oriented A means to an end Fulfillment *As this group has not spent much time in the workforce, this characteristic has yet to be determined. June Source: FDU Magazine Online Winter/Spring 2005

59 Workplace Characteristics Leadership Style Interactive Style by Generation (cont d) Veterans ( ) Directive Commandand-control Individual Baby Boomers ( ) Consensual Collegial Team Player Loves to have meetings Generation X ( ) Everyone is the same Challenging others Ask why Entrepreneur Generation Y ( ) *TBD Participative *As this group has not spent much time in the workforce, this characteristic has yet to be determined. June Source: FDU Magazine Online Winter/Spring 2005

60 Workplace Characteristics Communications Feedback and Rewards by Generation (cont d) Veterans ( ) Formal Memo No news is good news Satisfaction in a job well done Baby Boomers ( ) In person Don t appreciate it Money Title recognition Generation X ( ) Direct Immediate Sorry to interrupt but how am I doing? Freedom is the best reward Generation Y ( ) Voice mail Whenever I want it, at the push of a button Meaningful work June Source: FDU Magazine Online Winter/Spring 2005

61 Workplace Characteristics Messages That Motivate Work and Family Life by Generation (cont d) Veterans ( ) Your experience is respected Ne er the twain shall meet Baby Boomers ( ) You are valued You are needed No balance Work to live Generation X ( ) Do it your way Forget the rules Balance Generation Y ( ) You will work with other bright, creative people Balance June Source: FDU Magazine Online Winter/Spring 2005

62 Succession Planning June

63 Succession Planning Succession Planning Definition Succession planning enables your organization to identify talented employees and provide education to develop them for future higher level and broader responsibilities. Succession planning helps you build bench strength. Succession planning helps you decide where people belong on the bus. June

64 Another Definition Succession planning is not just about replacing people at the top of your organization; it is about getting the right people in place for every job. Fulmer (2002) June

65 Effective Succession Planning Identify organizations long term goals Retain superior employees Hire superior staff Identify and understand developmental needs of employees Ensure that key employees understand career paths and roles they are being developed to fill Be aware of employment trends on local area June 2009 Source: Heathfied, About.com 65

66 Responding to the Challenges Higher education must better prepare K-12 education leaders. Develop an education curriculum to better prepare our children for 21 st -century realities Provide the requisite mentoring and academic supports to maximize academic success Develop more effective strategies to recruit and retain qualified teachers. June

67 What Our Youth Must Do Learn to code-switch Display entrepreneurial acumen Development contextual intelligence Embrace diversity June

Disruptive Demographics: Implications for Workforce Planning and Development

Disruptive Demographics: Implications for Workforce Planning and Development James H. Johnson, Jr. Ph.D. William Rand Kenan, Jr. Distinguished Professor of Entrepreneurship and Strategy Kenan-Flagler Business