Six Disruptive Demographics That Will Change the U.S. & South Carolina Forever
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1 Six Disruptive Demographics That Will Change the U.S. & South Carolina Forever James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill March 2018
2 OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Keys to Maintaining & Enhancing Competitiveness Discussion
3 6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises Again The Browning of America Marrying Out is In The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandma s Well and Grandpa s Too!
4 The South Continues To Rise...Again!
5 Years SOUTH S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, U.S. Absolute Population Change South s Absolute Population Change South s Share of Change ,974,129 8,468,303 27% ,123,138 9,339,455 33% ,886,128 15,598,279 30% ,497,947 22,650,563 50% ,035,665 29,104,814 49% ,381,975 7,763,830 54%
6 NET MIGRATION TRENDS, Northeast Midwest South West Total -1,032-2,008 +2, Black Hispanic Elderly Foreign born = Net Import = Net Export
7 SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region UNITED STATES Absolute Population Change Percent of Total 14,381, NORTHEAST 892, MIDWEST 1,014, SOUTH 7,763, WEST 4,711,
8 STATE SHARES OF SOUTH S NET GROWTH, Region/State Absolute Change State s Share The South 7,763, % Texas 2,717, % Florida 1,811, % Georgia 622, % North Carolina 611, % Virginia 410, % Other Southern States 1,590, %
9 Absolute and Percent Population Change, Area 2016 Population Absolute Change Percent Change U.S. 323,127,513 14,381, % South 122,319,574 7,763, % South Carolina 4,961, , %
10 Gross and Net Migration, Charleston-North Charleston MSA, Inmigrants Outmigrants Net Migration South Carolina 75,432 56,987 18,445 Charleston- North Charleston, MSA Dorchester County 15,993 12,606 3,387 2,803 2, Berkeley County 3,993 3, Charleston County 9,197 6,889 2,308
11 Per Capita Adjusted Gross Income of In-Migrants and Out-Migrants, Inmigrants Outmigrants Difference South Carolina $35,545 $27,951 $7,594 Charleston- North Charleston, MSA Dorchester County $44,145 $30,468 $13,677 $26,710 $25,266 $1,443 Berkeley County $35,537 $25,066 $10,471 Charleston County $55,316 $35,718 $19,597
12 Charleston County, SC In Migration Fields, Seattle Chicago Manhattan Brooklyn Brookhaven Columbus Rockville Herndon Los Angeles Charlotte Raleigh San Diego Marietta Decatur Atlanta Savannah Jacksonville Miami Source: IRS Migration File
13 Geographic Origins of Migration Dividends Charleston County, SC, * Brookhaven $3,818 In Migrant Returns from Different State 1,274 Herndon $24,093 Manhattan $96,268 Number of Migrants > 140 Rockville $54,302 Columbus $14,083 Chicago $19,641 Other Flows Northeast 845 $19,329 Median Migration Dividend $19, Raleigh $235 Charlotte $18,853 Seattle $40,065 Midwest 801 $5,426 Marietta $2,999 Los Angeles $16,014 Charleston County Atlanta $28,891 *Compared to Non-migrant Per Capita AGI ($42,156) in Source: IRS Migration File
14 Two colorful demographic processes are drivers of change Browning & Graying of America
15 The Browning of America Immigration-driven population change
16 Number of Immigrants (in millions) U.S. Immigrant Population, Year
17 U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2014 Race/Ethnicity Foreign Population Share of Total (%) Total 42,235, Hispanic 19,300, White Alone, not Hispanic Black Alone, not Hispanic Asian Alone, not Hispanic Other Alone, not Hispanic 7,655, ,377, ,036, ,
18 South Carolina 335, NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share US 14,381, South 6,502, * Texas 3,550, Florida 2,100, Georgia 841, NC 875, VA 357,
19 MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2014 Race Total Male Female United States White Alone White, Non-Hispanic Black Alone AI/AN Alone Asian Alone NH/PI Alone Two or More Races Hispanic March
20 Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in South Carolina, Demographic Group All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic Native Born Foreign Born Source: *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months. Median Age Fertility/1000 women*
21 RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White 66% 50% 49.6% Blacks 17% 16% 15.0% Hispanics 15% 26% 26.0% Other 2% 8% 9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).
22 RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White 67% 47% Blacks 12.8% 13% Hispanics 14% 29% Asian 5% 9% Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.
23 The Graying of America The Silver Tsunami is about to hit
24 Key Drivers Changes in Longevity Declining Fertility Aging of Boomer Cohort
25 U.S. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH YEAR AGE
26 TOTAL FERTILITY RATES FOR U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2012 Race/Ethnicity Total Fertility Rate All Races 1.88 Hispanic 2.18 Non-Hispanic White 1.76 Blacks 1.90 Asian 1.77 Native American 1.35
27 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, Age 2010 Absolute Change Percentage Change < TOTAL 104,853,555 5,416, % 82,134,554-2,905, % 81,489,445 19,536, % 40,267,984 5,276, % 308,745,538 27,323, %
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29
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31 Metropolitan and Micropolitan Destinations of Elderly Migrants,
32 The Multigenerational Workforce
33 Multi-Generational Diversity Generation Birth Years Current Ages Est. Workforce Participation in 2013* Veterans Traditionalists WWII Generation Silent Generation Baby Boomers Boomers % (7M) % (60M) Generation X Baby Busters Generation Y Millennials % (51M) % (40M) March *Source: AARP Leading a Multi-Generational Workforce, 2007
34 Succession Planning & Accommodations for Elder Care Organizational Game Changers!
35 Absolute and Percent Population Change by Age, Age All Ages < United States 14,381,977 (4.7%) -201,520 (-0.2%) 2,911,286 (3.5%) 2,725,030 (3.3%) 8,947,181 (22.2%) South Carolina 335,709 (7.3% ) 9,238 (0.6%) 61,093 (5.1%) 67,066 (5.4%%) 198,358 (31.4%)
36 Family Life is Changing Ozzie and Harriet are no longer the norm!
37 Marrying Out is In March
38 INTERMARRIAGE TREND, % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity March
39 INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008 March
40 Living Arrangements are more diverse And Interesting!
41 COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA S WELL And Grandpa s Too!
42 Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent Households, Household Type Absolute Number 2010 Absolute Change All 74,718 2, No Grandparents 67, Both Grandparents Grandmother Only 2, , Grandfather Only Percent Change March
43 The End of Men?
44 FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION % Female
45 THE PLIGHT OF MEN Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to Selective male withdrawal from labor market rising non-employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.
46 COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010 DEGREE MALE FEMALE DIFFERENCE Associate s 293, , ,000 Bachelor s 702, , ,000 Master s 257, , ,000 Professional 46,800 46, Doctor s 31,500 32,900 1,400 TOTAL 1,330,300 1,902, ,000
47 Gender Composition of Student Head Count Enrollment in NC Colleges & Universities, Fall 2014 Type of Institution Total Enrollment Male Enrollment Percent Male Enrollment All Institutions 554, , Bible Colleges 3,880 2, Public Institutions 459, , UNC System 220,121 95, PWIs 181,246 81, MSIs 38,875 14, HBUs 32,653 11, Community Colleges 239, , Private Institutions 90,974 38, Senior Colleges & Universities 90,296 37, Junior Colleges
48 The World of Working is Changing
49 The New World of Work Outsourcing Offshoring Robotic Outsourcing Freelancing & the Gig economy
50 THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT Analytical Reasoning Entrepreneurial Acumen Contextual Intelligence Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity Agility and Flexibility
51 Opportunities The Elder Care Economy
52 The BIG Opportunity I
53 The Aging Boomer Market A $15 Trillion Prize Globally Bloomberg BusinessWeek
54 Boomers will redefine what it means to be old
55 Remember The majority of Baby Boomers work and play little different from those in their 40s. They re not obsessing over arthritis, incontinence, and dementia.
56 Boomers Defined More are working past 65 More likely to purchase a car today than other generations. Watch significantly more TV than Millennials. More than half are on Facebook Major consumers of Apple s products
57 Boomers Defined Cont d. AARP has started an over 50 model search. Amazon.com has launched a website dedicated to customers over % of Americans plan to work during retirement.
58 The Aging Consumer Paradox Seniors don t like to be singled out and reminded that they are old. The company that does a great job of making products for seniors takes great pains not to make products for seniors.
59 The Big Opportunity II Encore Entrepreneurship
60 Fifty is the New 20 One quarter of population interested in becoming entrepreneurs. Americans start new business ventures at a higher rate than any other group, including 20 somethings. 23% of new entrepreneurs were age in 2010, up from 14% in 1996.
61 Fifty is the New 20 Cont d 50% of businesses started by 50+ entrepreneurs still operating 5 years later. Encore Entrepreneurs alleged to have: Double E-SP: Experience, Expertise, Seasoned Judgement & Proven Performance.
62 The BIG Opportunity III How do we help seniors age gracefully in their homes and their communities? That is, how to help them age in place and keep them out of hospital emergency rooms, expensive nursing homes, and long term care facilities? What role can digital technologies play in healthy aging?
63 Age-Related Challenges Mobility Limitations Hearing Loss Vision Impairments Mental Disorders Substance Abuse Issues Chronic Disabilities Economic Constraints
64 The Triple Whammy Aging Boomers Face Mortality Elder Care Responsibilities Raising Grandchildren
65 Think about Urban Design for Our Aging Population
66 Urban Design Principles Visitability of institutional settings Senior playgrounds & fitness parks Universally accessible transport systems Complete street ordinances Extended walk times at pedestrian crosswalks Senior friendly street signage
67 LABELING & PACKAGING Easy to Read Easy to Understand Easy to Carry Easy to Enjoy Safer to Use March
68 Maintaining & Enhancing Competitiveness Managing transition from the graying to the browning of America. Competition for talent will be fierce and global. Embrace immigrants. Address the wayward sons problem Actively engage in K-12 Education to ensure a steady flow of talent into all sectors of the SC economy. Successful recruitment and retention will hinge on your ability to effectively manage the full nexus of diversity issues. March
69 THE END
OVERVIEW. Demographic Trends. Challenges & Opportunities. Discussion
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