Six Disruptive Demographics That Will Change the U.S. Forever

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1 Six Disruptive Demographics That Will Change the U.S. Forever October 2017

2 OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Discussion October

3 what CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL October 2017 October

5 6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises Again The Browning of America Marrying Out is In The Silver Tsunami is About Hit The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandma s Well and Grandpa s Too! October

6 People on the Move The South Rises Again!

7 The South Continues To Rise...Again! October

8 Years South s Share of U.S. Net Population Growth, Selected Years, U.S. Absolute Population Change South s Absolute Population Change South s Share of Change ,974,129 8,468,303 27% ,123,138 9,339,455 33% ,886,128 15,598,279 30% ,497,947 22,650,563 50% ,035,665 29,104,814 49%

9 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, Region 2010 Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S. 309,050,816 26,884, % Northeast 55,417,311 1,753, % Midwest 66,972,887 2,480, % South 114,555,744 14,318, % West 72,256,183 8,774, % Pennsylvania 12,702, , %

10 SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population Change Percent of Total UNITED STATES 26,884, NORTHEAST 1,753, MIDWEST 2,480, SOUTH 14,318, WEST 8,774,

11 NET MIGRATION TRENDS, Northeast Midwest South West Total 1,032 2,008 +2, Black Hispanic Elderly Foreign born October 2017 = Net Import = Net Export 11

12 GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, The Region Domestic Foreign Years In Out Net In Out Net ,125,096 3,470, , , , , ,874,414 3,477, , , , ,300 Florida Domestic Foreign Years In Out Net In Out Net , , ,002 41,745 24,108 17, , ,087-13,156 33,095 32,094 1,001

13 State Share of South s Net Growth, Region/State Absolute Change State s Share The South 14,318, % Texas 4,293, % Florida 2,818, % Georgia 1,501, % North Carolina 1,486, % Other Southern States 4,218, % October

16 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, Region 2015 Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S. 321,418,820 12,071, % Northeast 56,283, , % Midwest 67,907, , % South 121,182,847 6,319, % West 76,044,679 3,925, %

17 SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region UNITED STATES Absolute Population Change Percent of Total 12,071, NORTHEAST 896, MIDWEST 929, SOUTH 6,319, WEST 3,925,

18 STATE SHARES OF SOUTH S NET GROWTH, Region/State Absolute State s Share Change The South 6,319, % Texas 2,244, % Florida 1,421, % Georgia 501, % North Carolina 483, % Virginia 357, % Other Southern States 1,311, %

19 Absolute and Relative Population Change, Area 2016 Population Absolute Change Percent Change U.S. 323,127,513 13,779, % Northeast 56,209, , % Mid Atlantic 41,473, , % Pennsylvania 12,784,227 71, % September

20 Balance of Population Change Equation Population Change = In Flows Out Flows where In flows = [Births + In Migrants] & Out Flows =[Deaths + Out Migrants]

21 Typology of Communities Demographic Experience Balanced Growth Natural Growth Migration Magnets Dying Biologically Declining Emptying Out Drivers Births exceed deaths and in migration exceeds outmigration. Out migration exceeds in migration but this population loss is offset by an excess of births over deaths. Deaths exceed births but population loss is averted because in migration exceeds out migration. Deaths exceed births and out migration exceeds inmigration, resulting in population loss. In migration exceeds out migration but his net migration is not substantial enough to offset an excess of deaths over births Births exceed deaths but out migration exceeds inmigration, resulting in net population loss

22 Area Estimated Change Pennsylvania, Total Population Change Natural Change Net Migration Pennsylvania 135, ,089 10,163

23 Area Net Migration Pennsylvania Total Net Migration International Net Migration Domestic Net Migration Pennsylvania 11, , ,614

24 Estimated Change Pennsylvania and GPNP Counties Area 2016 Population Absolute Change Percent Change Pennsylvania 12,784,227 71, % GPNP Counties 2,762,947-33, % Allegheny 1,225,365 1, % Armstrong 66,486-2, % Beaver 167,429-3, % Butler 186,847 2, % Cambria 134,732-8, % Fayette 132,733-3, %

25 Area Estimated Change GPNP Counties Total Population Change Natural Change Net Migration Greene 37,197-1, % Indiana 86,364-2, % Lawrence 87,294-3, % Somerset 75,061-2, % Washington 207, % Westmoreland 355,458-9, %

26 County Migration Magnet GPNP Counties Total Population Change Natural Change Net Migration Butler 2, ,227 Allegheny 2,027-2,894 8,028 Washington 133-3,161 3,572

27 Dying GPNP Counties, County Total Population Change Natural Change Net Migration Greene -1, ,091 Armstrong -2,452-1,239-1,153 Indiana -2, ,254 Somerset -2,685-1,548-1,020 Beaver -3,110-2, Lawrence -3,846-1,228-2,498 Fayette -3,869-2,643-1,023 Cambria -8,942-3,046-5,721 Westmoreland -9,706-7,972-1,179

28 THE BROWNING OF AMERICA October

30 The Numbers Legal Immigrants Year Annual Flow , , , , ,137, ,067,000 Refugees, Parolees, Asylees Year Annual Flow , , , , ,500

31 The Numbers Cont d Illegal Immigrants 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades Three million granted amnesty in million illegal immigrants remained after 1986 reforms October 1996: INS estimated there were 5 million illegal immigrants in U.S. Since August 2005: Estimates of illegal population have ranged between 7 million and 15 million Today: An estimated 11.0 million unauthorized immigrants reside in U.S.

32 NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, Year All Classes Exchange Visitors Academic & Vocational Students ,756, ,023 (1%) 271,861 (2%) ,539, ,213 (1%) 285,496 (3%) ,574, ,644 (1%) 355,207 (2%) ,640, ,364 (1%) 395,480 (2%) ,690, ,743 (1%) 699,953 (2%) ,824, ,435 (1%) 741,921 (2%) ,907, ,176 (1%) 687,506 (2%) ,381, ,138 (1%) 917,373 (2%) ,082, , 931 (1%) 1,702,730 (3%)

34 U.S. Immigrant Population, Number of Immigrants (in millions) Year

35 U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2014 Race/Ethnicity Foreign Population Share of Total (%) Total 42,235, Hispanic 19,300, White Alone, not 7,655, Hispanic Black Alone, not 3,377, Hispanic Asian Alone, not 11,036, Hispanic Other Alone, not Hispanic 866,

36 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, Percentage Race 2010 Population Absolute Change Change Total 308,745,538 27,323, % Non-Hispanic 258,267,944 12,151, % White 196,817,552 2,264, % Black 37,685,848 3,738, % AI/AN 2,247, , % Asian 14,465,124 4,341, % NH/PI 481, , % 2 or More Races 5,966,481 1,364, % Hispanic 50,477,594 15,171, %

37 PENNSYLVANIA POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, Race 2010 Population Absolute Change Percentage Change Total 12,702, , % Non-Hispanic 11,982,719 95, % White 10,094, , % Black 1,327, , % AI/AN 16,909 2, % Asian 346, , % NH/PI 2, % Some other race 16,469 3, % 2 or More Races 178,595 65, % Hispanic 719, , %

38 NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF Area POPULATION GROWTH, Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share US 27,323, South 14,318, Texas 4,293, Florida 2,818, Georgia 1,501, NC 1,486, Pennsylvania 421,

39 NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share US 12,071, South 6,319, Texas 2,224, Florida 1,421, Georgia 501, NC 483, VA 357,

40 MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2014 Race Total Male Female United States White Alone White, Non-Hispanic Black Alone AI/AN Alone Asian Alone NH/PI Alone Two or More Races Hispanic September

Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in Pennsylvania, 2011 2015 Demographic Group All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander

41 Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in Pennsylvania, Demographic Group All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic Native Born Foreign Born Source: *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months. Median Age Fertility/1000 women* NA

42 TOTAL FERTILITY RATES FOR U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2012 Race/Ethnicity Total Fertility Rate All Races 1.88 Hispanic 2.18 Non-Hispanic White 1.76 Blacks 1.90 Asian 1.77 Native American 1.35

43 RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White 66% 50% 49.6% Blacks 17% 16% 15.0% Hispanics 15% 26% 26.0% Other 2% 8% 9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

44 RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White 67% 47% Blacks 12.8% 13% Hispanics 14% 29% Asian 5% 9% October Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

45 Marrying Out is In October

46 INTERMARRIAGE TREND, % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity October

47 INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008 October

48 THE SILVER TSUNAMI The Graying of America October

49 Key Drivers Changes in Longevity Declining Fertility Aging of Boomer Cohort

50 U.S. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH YEAR AGE

51 Centenarians in the U.S. Year Number , , ,000

52 COMPLETED FERTILITY FOR WOMEN YEARS OLD Year Percent Childless Avg. Number of Children Percent Higher Order Births* *Three or more Children

53 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, Age 2010 Absolute Change Percentage Change < TOTAL 104,853,555 5,416, % 82,134,554-2,905, % 81,489,445 19,536, % 40,267,984 5,276, % 308,745,538 27,323, %

56 U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, ( ) Age 50 Age 55 Age 62 Age 65 Average Number/Day 12,344 11,541 9,221 8,032 Average Number/Minute September

60 Metropolitan and Micropolitan Destinations of Elderly Migrants,

Absolute and Percent Population Change by Age, 2000-2010 Age United

62 Absolute and Percent Population Change by Age, Age United States Pennsylvania All Ages < ,323,632 (9.7%) 5,416,292 (5.4%) 2,905,697 ( 3.4%) 19,536,809 (31.5%) 5,276,231 (15.1%) 421,325 (3.4%) 36,866 (0.9%) 381,774 ( 10.9%) 726,091 (25.6%) 40,142 (2.1%)

63 The Multigenerational Workforce

64 Multi-Generational Diversity Generation Birth Years Current Ages Est. Workforce Participation in 2013* Veterans Traditionalists WWII Generation Silent Generation Baby Boomers Boomers % (7M) % (60M) Generation X Baby Busters Generation Y Millennials % (51M) % (40M) September *Source: AARP Leading a Multi-Generational Workforce, 2007

65 Succession Planning & Accommodations for Elder Care Organizational Game Changers!

66 Signs of Global Aging Japan sells more adult diapers than baby diapers China has the 4:2:1 problem Today, 9% of the Chinese population is elderly (129 million) By 2050, the Chinese elderly population will total 330 million (25% of the total) larger than the entire U.S. population today

67 Signs of Global Aging, Cont d For the first time in 100 years, deaths exceeded births among U.S. non Hispanic whites in 2011 Today, 16% of the U.S. population is 65+; 26% will be elderly by Close to 40 million people in the U.S. provided unpaid eldercare in 2011 and 2012 at an estimated cost of $30 billion in loss work productivity.

68 Signs of Global Aging Cont d 10 million millennials are caring for adult family members. 25 percent of U.S. caregivers are between 18 and 34 years of age. Google launches a medical company Calico to defeat death by prolonging life.

69 Living Arrangements are more diverse And Interesting!

70 COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA S WELL And Grandpa s Too!

71 Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent Households, Household Type Absolute Number 2010 Absolute Change All 74,718 2, No Grandparents 67, Both 2, Grandparents Grandmother 1, Only Grandfather Only Percent Change September

72 Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent- Headed Households by Presence of Parents, 2010 Household Type All Children (in thousands) Living with Both Parents Living with Mother Only Living with Father Only All 74, % 23.1% 3.4% 4.0% No Grandparents Both Grandparents Grandmother Only Grandfather Only 67, % 21.2% 3.3% 2.1% Living with Neither parent 2, % 40.6% 5.2% 36.1% 1, % 48.4% 4.5% 33.2% % 45.9% 4.4% 23.6% September

73 Couple Households with Children, 2009 Type of Couple Married opposite sex Unmarried opposite sex Number of Households with Children Percent Own Children 23,453, ,493, Same Sex 104, Percent Unrelated Children

74 Same Sex Couple Households with Children, 2009 Type of Couple Number of Households with Children Percent Own Children Same Sex 104, Unmarried 33, Male Male Unmarried Female Female 71, Percent Unrelated Children

75 DIVERSITY RULES...but Challenges Abound September

76 Workforce Planning and Development Challenges The End of Men? The Triple Whammy of Geographic Disadvantage Education necessary, but not sufficient

77 The End of Men? October

78 FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION % Female October

79 JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) 2009 (Q3) RECESSION Industry Women Men Construction -106,000-1,300,000 Manufacturing -106,000-1,900,000 Healthcare +451, ,100 Government +176, ,000 Total -1,700,000-4,700,000

80 The Plight of Men Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to Selective male withdrawal from labor market rising nonemployment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. The percentage of prime aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.

81 COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010 DEGREE MALE FEMALE DIFFERENCE Associate s 293, , ,000 Bachelor s 702, , ,000 Master s 257, , ,000 Professional 46,800 46, Doctor s 31,500 32,900 1,400 TOTAL 1,330,300 1,902, ,000 October

82 Gender Composition of Student Head Count Enrollment in NC Colleges & Universities, Fall 2014 Type of Institution Total Enrollment Male Enrollment Percent Male Enrollment All Institutions 554, , Bible Colleges 3,880 2, Public Institutions 459, , UNC System 220,121 95, PWIs 181,246 81, MSIs 38,875 14, HBUs 32,653 11, Community Colleges 239, , Private Institutions 90,974 38, Senior Colleges & 90,296 37, Universities Junior Colleges

83 Jobs Lost/Gained by Gender During 2007 (Q4) 2009 (Q3) Recession Industry Women Men Construction 106,000 1,300,000 Manufacturing 106,000 1,900,000 Healthcare +451, ,100 Government +176, ,000 Total 1,700,000 4,700,000 October

84 The Triple Whammy of Geographical Disadvantage The Human Capital Challenge

85 Racial Typology of U.S. Counties

86 Racial Typology of U.S. Counties

87 Racial Typology of U.S. Counties

88 Racial Typology of U.S. Counties

89 U.S. Racial Segregation by Census Tract

90 U.S. Racial Segregation by Census Tract

91 U.S. Racial Segregation by Census Tract

92 U.S. Racial Segregation by Census Tract

93 U.S. School Age Poverty by Census Tract

94 U.S. School Age Poverty by Census Tract

95 U.S. School Age Poverty by Census Tract

96 U.S. School Age Poverty by Census Tract

97 The Triple Whammy of Geographic Disadvantage

98 Summary Indicators of Level of Vulnerability Exposure Number of Youth Percent Non White Triple Whammy 9.8 million 93 Double 12.2 million 81 Whammy Single Whammy 20.0 million 39 No Whammy 32.1 million 24

100

101

102 Male-Female Presence Disparity 6400 Total Number of EOC Test Takers Number of Test Takers males females / / / /2011 Year Graph shows total number of male and female students tested of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Duplin, Halifax, Northampton, and Pamlico)

103 Percent of High School Graduates Requiring Remedial Course Work , , , , , None One Two or MoreHS more GradsPercent of HS Grads

104 Education is Necessary...but insufficient

105 BACHELOR S DEGREE HOLDERS (UNDER AGE 25) WHO WERE JOBLESS OR UNDEREMPLOYED Year Percent

106 CHANGE IN INCIDENCE OF POVERTY BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN NC, , Educational Attainment Percent Change Less than High School 253, , % High School Graduate 216, , % Some College, Associate Degree 136, , % Bachelor s degree or higher 49,082 57, % Source: American Community Survey

107 The World of Working is Changing

108 The New World of Work Outsourcing Offshoring Robotic Outsourcing Freelancing & the Gig economy

109 THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT Analytical Reasoning Entrepreneurial Acumen Contextual Intelligence Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity Agility and Flexibility

110 Maintaining & Enhancing Competitiveness Managing transition from the graying to the browning of America. Competition for talent will be fierce and global. Embrace immigrants. Address the wayward sons problem Actively engage in K 12 Education to ensure a steady flow of talent into all sectors of the SC economy. Successful recruitment and retention will hinge on your ability to effectively manage the full nexus of diversity issues. September

Race/Skin Color Iceberg Model of Diversity Visible Diversity Traits If all I know about you is what I can see Gender Visible Disability Age Group Ethnicity Physical Attributes Invisible Diversity

111 Race/Skin Color Iceberg Model of Diversity Visible Diversity Traits If all I know about you is what I can see Gender Visible Disability Age Group Ethnicity Physical Attributes Invisible Diversity Traits Level in Organization Culture Marital Status Values Education MBTI Religion/Religious Experiences International Cultural Immersion Communication Style Conflict Style Beliefs Teaching Style Recreational Habits IQ Learning Styles Academic Discipline Literacy Sexual Orientation Personality Style Orientation to Time Family Relationships Orientation to Tasks Physical Abilities/Qualities EQ Military Experience Socioeconomic Status Geographic Background Work Background Smoker/Non-Smoker Parental Status Native Born/Non-Native Born Political Ideology Thinking Style

112 THE END

113 Supplemental Slides October

114 Area Net Migration GPNP Counties Total Net Migration International Net Migration Domestic Net Migration Somerset -1, ,214 Beaver Lawrence -2, ,680 Fayette -1, ,400 Cambria -5, ,057 Westmoreland -1, ,797

115 Area Net Migration GPNP Counties Total Net Migration International Net Migration Domestic Net Migration Butler 3, ,594 Allegheny 8,028 19,756-11,728 Washington 3, ,653 Greene -1, ,106 Armstrong -1, ,186 Indiana -2, ,807

OVERVIEW. Demographic Trends. Challenges & Opportunities. Discussion

OVERVIEW. Demographic Trends. Challenges & Opportunities. Discussion People on the Move James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill January 2017 OVERVIEW Demographic