Disruptive Demographics: Implications for North Carolina s Health and Competitiveness

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1 Disruptive Demographics: Implications for North Carolina s Health and Competitiveness James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill November 2013

2 OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Discussion

3 what CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL November 2013

4 6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises Again The Browning of America Marrying Out is In The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandma s Well and Grandpa s Too!

5 The South Continues To Rise...Again!

6 Years SOUTH S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, U.S. Absolute Population Change South s Absolute Population Change South s Share of Change ,974,129 8,468,303 27% ,123,138 9,339,455 33% ,886,128 15,598,279 30% ,497,947 22,650,563 50% ,035,665 29,104,814 49%

7 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY Region REGION, Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S. 309,050,816 26,884, % Northeast 55,417,311 1,753, % Midwest 66,972,887 2,480, % South 114,555,744 14,318, % West 72,256,183 8,774, % North Carolina 9,535,483 1,486, %

8 SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population Change Percent of Total UNITED STATES 26,884, NORTHEAST 1,753, MIDWEST 2,480, SOUTH 14,318, WEST 8,774,

9 NET MIGRATION TRENDS, Northeast Midwest South West Total -1,032-2,008 +2, Black Hispanic Elderly Foreign born = Net Import = Net Export

10 GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, The Region Domestic Foreign Years In Out Net In Out Net ,125,096 3,470, , , , , ,874,414 3,477, , , , ,300 Florida Domestic Foreign Years In Out Net In Out Net , , ,002 41,745 24,108 17, , ,087-13,156 33,095 32,094 1,001

11 STATE SHARE OF SOUTH S NET GROWTH, Region/State Absolute Change State s Share The South 14,318, % Texas 4,293, % Florida 2,818, % Georgia 1,501, % North Carolina 1,486, % Other Southern States 4,218, %

12 NC COUNTIES WITH THE LARGEST ABSOLUTE POPULATION GAINS,

13 NC COUNTIES EXPERIENCING POPULATION DECLINE,

14 Counties with Biologically Declining Populations, 2009

15 Absolute and Relative Population Change, Area 2010 Population Absolute Change Percent Change North Carolina 9,535,483 1,486, % Guilford 488,406 67, % County Greensboro City 269,666 45, %

16 North Carolina Counties Experiencing Growth & Decline,

17 Balance of Population Change Equation Population Change = In-Flows Out- Flows where In-flows = [Births + In-Migrants] & Out-Flows =[Deaths + Out-Migrants]

18 Typology of Communities Demographic Experience Balanced Growth Natural Growth Migration Magnets Dying Biologically Declining Emptying Out Drivers Births exceed deaths and in-migration exceeds outmigration. Out-migration exceeds in-migration but this population loss is offset by an excess of births over deaths. Deaths exceed births but population loss is averted because in-migration exceeds out-migration. Deaths exceed births and out-migration exceeds inmigration, resulting in population loss. In-migration exceeds out-migration but his net migration is not substantial enough to offset an excess of deaths over births Births exceed deaths but out-migration exceeds inmigration, resulting in net population loss

19 Types of Communities in Eastern and Western North Carolina Type of Community Number Balanced Growth 13 Natural Growth 5 Migration Magnet 4 Emptying Out 3 Dying 23 Biologically Declining 7

20 Demographic Typology of NC Counties,

21 Guilford County Migration Trends, Indicator In-Migrants Out- Migrants Number of Migrants Average Adjusted Gross Income 113, ,961 +5,416 Net/Difference $39,412 $40,654 -$1,242

22 Components of Population Change in Guilford County, NC, Area Guilford County Total Population Change Natural Change Net Migration 12,473 4,697 7,871

23 THE BROWNING OF NORTH CAROLINA

24 U.S. Immigrant Population, Number of Immigrants (in millions) Year

25 U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2011 Race/Ethnicity Foreign Population Share of Total (%) Total 40,381, Hispanic 18,788, White Alone, not Hispanic 7,608, Black Alone, not Hispanic 3,130, Asian Alone, not Hispanic 9,988, Other Alone, not Hispanic 866, July

26 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY Race RACE & ETHNICITY, Population Absolute Change Percentage Change Total 308,745,538 27,323, % Non-Hispanic 258,267,944 12,151, % White 196,817,552 2,264, % Black 37,685,848 3,738, % AI/AN 2,247, , % Asian 14,465,124 4,341, % NH/PI 481, , % 2 or More Races 5,966,481 1,364, % Hispanic 50,477,594 15,171, %

27 NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND ETHNICITY, % 547% 332% 129% 127% 133% 182% Native Immigrant White Black Hispanic Asian Pacific Islander

28 NORTH CAROLINA FOREIGN BORN POPULATION GROWTH, , % 430, % 21,978 28, % 0.6% 78, % 115, %

29 Area CONTRIBUTIONS OF NON-WHITES & HISPANICS TO NC POPULATION CHANGE, Absolute Population Change Percent Non- White* Percent Hispanic All Counties 1,486, Tier 1 Counties 69, Tier 2 Counties 327, Tier 3 Counties 1,088, Source: Census 2000 and Census *Non-whites include Blacks, Hispanics, American Indians and Alaskan Natives, Asians, Native Hawaiians & Pacific Islanders, and people of two or more races.

30 GUILFORD COUNTY POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, Race 2010 Population Absolute Change Percentage Change Total 488,406 67, % Non-Hispanic 453,580 48, % White 265, % Black 156,982 34, % AI/AN 2, % Asian 19,059 8, % NH/PI % Some other race 1, % 2 or More Races 8,924 3, % Hispanic 34,826 18, %

31 GREENSBORO POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, Race 2010 Population Absolute Change Percentage Change Total 269,666 45, % Non-Hispanic 249,330 35, % White 122,888 2, % Black 108,233 25, % AI/AN 1, % Asian 10,711 4, % NH/PI % Some other race % 2 or More Races 5,571 2, % Hispanic 20,336 10, %

32 CONTRIBUTIONS OF NON-WHITES & HISPANICS TO GUILFORD COUNTY POPULATION CHANGE, Area Absolute Population Change Percent Non-white Percent Hispanic North Carolina 1,486, Guilford 67, County Greensboro City 45,

33 Marrying Out is In October

34 INTERMARRIAGE TREND, % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity October

35 INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008 October

36 OUT-MARRIAGE PATTERNS BY RACE AND GENDER, NC Hispanic Men 21.4 Hispanic Women 21.6 Black Men 9.4 Black Women 3.4 White Female 18.0 White Male 16.4 White Female 6.0 White Male 0.6 Black Female 1.5 Black Male 3.7 Hispanic Female 1.4 Hispanic Male 1.9 Asian Female 0.7 Asian Male 0.2 Asian Female 0.5 Asian Male 0.1 Other Female 1.2 Other Male 1.3 Other Female 1.5 Other Male 0.9 White Men 3.3 White Women 3.4 Asian Men 12.3 Asian Women 31.4 Hispanic Female 1.1 Hispanic Male 1.2 White Female 10.0 Hispanic Male 1.5 Black Female 0.3 Black Male 1.1 Black Female 0.6 White Male 25.8 Asian Female 0.9 Asian Male 0.2 Hispanic Female 0.5 Black Male 2.7 Other Female 1.0 Other Male 0.9 Other Female 1.2 Other Male 1.3

37 MEDIAN AGE & FERTILITY RATES FOR FEMALES IN NC, Demographic Group Median Age Fertility/1000 women* All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic Native Born Foreign Born Source: American Community Survey *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months

Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in Greensboro, 2007-2011 Demographic Group All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander

38 Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in Greensboro, Demographic Group All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic Native Born Foreign Born Source: *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months. Median Age Fertility/1000 women*

39 RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White 66% 50% 49.6% Blacks 17% 16% 15.0% Hispanics 15% 26% 26.0% Other 2% 8% 9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

40 CHANGE IN THE RACE/ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF NC PUBLIC SCHOOLS, Group 2009 Enrollment 2000 Enrollment Absolute Change Percent Change Share of Net Change Total. 1,427,960 1,268, , % AI/AN 20,378 18,651 1, % Black 444, ,712 51, % Asian 35,140 23,576 11, % Hispanic 152,605 56,232 96, % White 774, ,251-1, Source: DPI, The Statistical Profile Online

41 NC s SILVER TSUNAMI

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2009 Age 2009 Absolute Change 2000-2009 Percentage Change 2000-2009 <25 104,960,250 5,258,492 5.

42 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, Age 2009 Absolute Change Percentage Change <25 104,960,250 5,258, ,096,278-1,898, ,379,439 16,977, ,570,590 4,496, TOTAL 307,006,550 24,834, October

43 U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, ( ) Age 50 Age 55 Age 62 Age 65 Average Number/Day 12,344 11,541 9,221 8,032 Average Number/Minute October

44 DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE AMERICAN SOUTH Source: Census 2010

45 NC ABSOLUTE POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, Age All Counties Tier 3 Counties Tier 2 Counties All Ages 1,486,170 1,088, ,859 69,365 <25 449, ,818 85,481-5, , ,248-36,139-49, , , ,101 88, , ,175 79,416 36,440 Tier 1 Counties

Absolute and Percent Population Change by Age, 2000-2010 Age All Ages <25 25-44 45-64 65+ Greensboro 45,775 (20.4% ) 18,815 (23.

47 Absolute and Percent Population Change by Age, Age All Ages < Greensboro 45,775 (20.4% ) 18,815 (23.1%) 5,099 (7.2%) 17,467 (38.7%) 4,394 (16.5%) Guilford County 67,358 (16.0% ) 25,500 (17.5%) -902 (-0.7%) 32,113 (34.5%) 10,647 (21.5% )

48 COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA S WELL And Grandpa s Too!

49 Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent Households, Household Type Absolute Number 2010 Absolute Change All 74,718 2, No Grandparents 67, Both Grandparents Grandmother Only 2, , Grandfather Only Percent Change October

50 Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent-Headed Households by Presence of Parents, 2010 Household Type All Children (in thousands) Living with Both Parents Living with Mother Only Living with Father Only All 74, % 23.1% 3.4% 4.0% No Grandparents Both Grandparents Grandmother Only Grandfather Only 67, % 21.2% 3.3% 2.1% Living with Neither parent 2, % 40.6% 5.2% 36.1% 1, % 48.4% 4.5% 33.2% % 45.9% 4.4% 23.6% October

51 GRANDPARENTS LIVING WITH GRANDCHILDREN AGES 18 AND YOUNGER IN NORTH CAROLINA Total Households with Grandparents Grandparents Responsible for Grandchildren Child's Parents in Household Percent Change 146, , , , ,679 67,

52 The End of Men?

53 FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION % Female

54 JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) 2009 (Q3) RECESSION Industry Women Men Construction -106,000-1,300,000 Manufacturing -106,000-1,900,000 Healthcare +451, ,100 Government +176, ,000 Total -1,700,000-4,700,000

55 THE PLIGHT OF MEN Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to Selective male withdrawal from labor market rising non-employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.

56 COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010 DEGREE MALE FEMALE DIFFERENCE Associate s 293, , ,000 Bachelor s 702, , ,000 Master s 257, , ,000 Professional 46,800 46, Doctor s 31,500 32,900 1,400 TOTAL 1,330,300 1,902, ,000

57 Area ENROLLMENT IN 2 YEAR COLLEGES, 2009 Total Enrollment Full Time Enrollment (%) Male Enrollment (%) Black Enrollment (%) U.S. 20,966, Southeast 4,731, Region North 574, Carolina NC- 2 Yr Colleges 253,

58 UNC SYSTEM STUDENT ENROLLMENT BY GENDER AND TYPE OF INSTITUTION, 2010 Type of Institution Total Enrollment Male Enrollment Percent Male UNC System 175,281 76, Majority Serving 139,250 63, Minority Serving 36,031 13, HBUs 29,865 11,191 37

59 Average EOG Scores Math 8 EOG Scores Percentage Passed Boys Girls State Avg / / / /2011 Year Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

60 Average EOG Scores Reading 8 EOG Scores Percentage Passed Boys Girls State Avg / / / /2011 Year Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

61 Average EOC Scores Algebra 1 EOC Scores Percentage Passed Boys Girls State Avg / / / /2011 Year Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

62 EOC Composite Scores EOC Composite Pass Rates % of Students Passing Males Females State / / / /2011 Year Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

63 Male-Female Presence Disparity 6400 Total Number of EOC Test Takers Number of Test Takers males females / / / /2011 Year Graph shows total number of male and female students tested of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Duplin, Halifax, Northampton, and Pamlico)

64 High School Graduation Rates Graduation Rates (LEAs Grouped) Percent Graduated Boys Girls / / / /2011 Year Avg. graduation rates of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

65 The Minority Male Challenge

66 Third Grade EOG Reading Test Pass Rates For Males by Race/Ethnicity 80% 70% 65% 66% 68% 69% EOG Pass Rate 60% 50% 40% 55% 38% 59% 57% 55% 52% 52% 50% 45% 46% 46% 48% 49% 43% White Boys Black Boys Latino Boys American Indian 30% 33% 31% 20% Year

67 Third Grade EOG Math Test Pass Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity 100% 90% 84% 90% 90% 90% 90% 80% 76% 77% 79% 80% EOG Pass Rate 70% 60% 67% 67% 74% 75% 65% 65% 80% 77% 67% 68% White Boys Black Boys Latino Boys American Indian 50% 54% 40% Year

68 Eighth Grade EOG Reading Test Pass Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity 100% 90% 80% 77% 80% 80% 81% EOG Pass Rate 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 32% 66% 35% 54% 49% 44% 54% 48% 43% 55% 56% 56% 52% 50% 48% White Boys Black Boys Latino Boys American Indian 20% 30% Year

69 Eighth Grade EOG Math Test Pass Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity 100% 90% 87% 89% 89% 90% EOG Pass Rate 80% 70% 60% 78% 56% 77% 73% 74% 66% 65% 65% 79% 80% 78% 77% 67% 68% White Boys Black Boys Latino Boys American Indian 50% 51% 54% 40% Year

70 September

71 Percent of High School Graduates Requiring Remedial Course Work , , , , , None One Two or MoreHS more GradsPercent of HS Grads

72 THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT Analytical Reasoning Entrepreneurial Acumen Contextual Intelligence Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity Agility and Flexibility

73 Implications for Workforce Planning and Development Managing transition from the graying to the browning of America. Competition for talent will be fierce and global. Embrace immigrants. Successful recruitment and retention will hinge on your ability to effectively manage the full nexus of diversity issues. Actively engage in K-12 Education to ensure a steady flow of talent into the health care sector. July

74 MOVING FORWARD Foster & facilitate successful aging in place as a form of enlightened self-interest. Develop and/or expand falls prevention programs. Promote healthy eating by design and active living by design. Explore the feasibility of entering the retail clinic market. Review HR procedures and training materials to ensure the delivery of culturally competent care. Audit existing facilities to ensure equal opportunity access. across the life course and build new facilities according to universal design principles and standards. Leverage smart technologies expand the reach of high quality health care and prevention programs.

OVERVIEW. Demographic Trends. Challenges & Opportunities. Discussion

OVERVIEW. Demographic Trends. Challenges & Opportunities. Discussion People on the Move James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill January 2017 OVERVIEW Demographic