Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour September Profile of the New Brunswick Labour Force

Transcription

1 Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour September 2018 Profile of the New Brunswick Labour Force

2 Contents Population Trends... 2 Key Labour Force Statistics... 5 New Brunswick Overview... 5 Sub-Regional Statistics... 6 Industry... 9 Occupation Wages and Employment Income Skills and Education Women Youth Older Workers Aboriginal Peoples Immigrants Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) Page 1 of 26

3 Population Trends According to Statistics Canada s annual demographic estimates, as of 2017, New Brunswick had a population of approximately 759,655; this total represented the highest level in the province s history (after two consecutive years of growth). Despite this, New Brunswick is in a vulnerable position due to its age structure and it will be a challenge to grow the population. Although Statistics Canada has various population projection scenarios, in general, it is expected that New Brunswick s population will remain fairly constant over the next five to ten years, with potential for slight growth. In the long term however, as the population continues to grow older it is expected that, barring an influx of youth (young professionals and their families), the province s population will decline. According to the population model used in the preparation of this report i, New Brunswick s population is expected to peak at approximately 767,300 persons in ,000 Age Distribution of the New Brunswick Population 600, ,000 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 13% 15% 17% 20% 24% 27% 30% 31% 63% 65% 67% 68% 68% 69% 70% 68% 65% 62% 59% 57% 56% 200, % 24% 22% 20% 19% 17% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% Historical Projections 0 to 14 years 15 to 64 years 65 years and over Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables and Declining fertility rates, increased life expectancy and the aging of the baby boom generation (that is, the children of the post-war era born between 1946 and 1965) have all been major contributing factors to the dramatic changes that the structure of the New Brunswick population has seen over the past several decades. Today, the province is faced with a senior cohort that is larger than ever, a shrinking typical working-age population (anyone between the ages of 15 Working-Age Population: Anyone who is 15 years or older. Typical Working-Age Population: Anyone who is 15 to 64 years old. Core Working-Age Population: Anyone who is 25 to 54 years old. and 64), and an under-fifteen population that has shrunk 40% over the past forty years. While this situation is not unique to New Brunswick, these issues have been further compounded in the province by consistently negative net interprovincial migration and international migration levels that historically Page 2 of 26

4 have been relatively low (although it s worth noting that international migration levels in the province have increased considerably in recent years ii ). Today, New Brunswick s population is one of the oldest of all provinces in Canada. In 2017, the median age of the New Brunswick population was 45.3 years, well above the Canadian median of 40.6 years (and second highest among the provinces and territories). This is in stark contrast to forty years ago, when the median age of the New Brunswick population was only 26.1 years (and 28.1 years nationally). To understand and describe this population structure, a measure called the Dependency Ratio iii is used. Dependency ratios are based on the idea that children under the age of 15 are more likely to be dependents, and seniors over 65 are more likely to be retired. Children (through educational spending) and seniors (through retirement and health related services) tend to require a larger proportion of tax payer dollars than the 15 to 64 year old group (In 2015, more than 50% of government healthcare expenditures in the province were spent on those ages 65 and older, despite this group only accounting for approximately 20% of the population). When the number of children or seniors is weighed against numbers of persons between 15 and 64, these ratios allow for easier comparison of changing population structures over time. The Senior Dependency Ratio is the ratio of the number of seniors (ages 65 or above) to every 100 individuals in the typical working-age population (ages 15 to 64). The Child Dependency Ratio is the ratio of the number of young people (ages 0 to 14) to every 100 individuals in the typical working-age population (ages 15 to 64). The Total Dependency Ratio is the ratio of the number of children (ages 0 to 14) and seniors (ages 65 or above) to every 100 individuals in the typical working-age population (ages 15 to 64). Population Trends (New Brunswick, 1977 to 2017) New Brunswick Canada Total Population 695, , , , , M Median Age (Years) Total Dependency Ratio Child Dependency Ratio Senior Dependency Ratio Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table Page 3 of 26

5 Profile of the New Brunswick Labour Force At first glance, the New Brunswick dependency ratio doesn t appear to be changing much. Between 1977 and 2017, the total dependency ratio decreased only slightly. However, the total dependency ratio masks a major shift in the population where the proportion of children has decreased significantly, and the proportion of seniors has continued to grow. Over the last forty years, the child dependency ratio has (approximately) been cut in half, while the senior dependency ratio has more than doubled. Compared to Canada as a whole, New Brunswick had a smaller child dependency ratio (22.3 compared to 23.9) and a greater senior dependency ratio (30.7 compared to 25.1) in New Brunswick Dependency Ratios (1977 to 2017 Historical, 2018 to 2037 Projections) Total Dependency Youth Dependency Senior Dependency Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables and Today, New Brunswick finds itself at a demographic crossroads. As the large population of baby boomers continues to enter the senior age (ages 65 and older) cohort, the senior dependency ratio is expected to increase dramatically over the next 20 years. This creates significant challenges for economic growth in the province as the working age labour force shrinks and the demand for healthcare and social services for seniors intensifies. Page 4 of 26

6 Key Labour Force Statistics New Brunswick Overview Labour Force Statistics (New Brunswick, 2007 and 2017) Characteristic Change % Change Working-Age Population (Ages 15+) 607, , , % Labour Force 386, ,900-2, % Employment 357, ,900-4, % Full-Time Employment 300, ,900 +1, % Part-Time Employment 57,300 51,000-6, % Unemployment 28,900 31,000 +2, % Not in Labour Force 221, , , % Participation Rate 63.6% 61.5% -2.1 p.p. Employment Rate 58.8% 56.5% -2.3 p.p. Unemployment Rate 7.5% 8.1% +0.6 p.p. Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table In 2017, there were an estimated 383,900 persons participating in the labour force (i.e. employed or actively looking for work), representing a decrease of 2,700 (-0.7%) from This decrease was primarily the result of the province s core working-age (ages 25 to 54) population shrinking significantly (although in terms of overall population, this decrease was more than offset by an increase to the province s older population). The province s participation rate fell from 63.6% to 61.5% between 2007 and 2017, and was well below the national rate of 65.8% in It s worth noting that, if the age composition of the New Brunswick population were to be adjusted (or standardized ) to match the age composition of the country as a whole, the province s participation rate would be 64.3%. This implies that the province s aging population is a significant contributing factor to its relatively low participation rate. Approximately 352,900 New Brunswickers were employed in 2017, representing a decrease of 4,700 (-1.3%) from 2007, driven primarily by the province s shrinking core working-age population. This decrease was the net result of a decrease of 6,300 in terms of part-time employment, and an increase of 1,600 in terms of full-time employment. This decrease in parttime employment was driven in part by the province s shrinking youth population. New Brunswick had the highest percentage of employment that was full-time among the provinces in In 2017, there were approximately 31,000 unemployed New Brunswickers, an increase of 2,100 (+7.3%) from This increase in total unemployment resulted in an increase to the unemployment rate, from 7.5% in 2007 to 8.1% in Nationally the unemployment rate was 6.5% in Despite increasing slightly over the past ten years, in more recent years, unemployment in New Brunswick has been decreasing significantly; since 2013, New Brunswick s unemployment rate has decreased by 2.2 p.p. (percentage points), including a 1.5 p.p. drop between 2016 and 2017 Page 5 of 26

7 (the largest year-over-year decrease among the provinces).; this decrease was primarily the result of workers exiting the labour force. Sub-Regional Statistics Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and Census Agglomerations (CAs) are large urban areas (known as urban cores) together with adjacent urban and rural areas that have a high degree of social and economic integration with the urban cores. A census metropolitan area (CMA) has an urban core population of at least 100,000 and a census agglomeration (CA) has an urban core population between 10,000 and 99,999 based on the previous census As of the 2016 Census, the seven CMA/CAs in New Brunswick were: Moncton, Saint John, Fredericton, Bathurst, Campbellton, Miramichi and Edmundston iv. Labour Force Statistics by Geography (NB, 2017) Characteristic CMA/CAs Ages 15+ Ages 25 to 54 Non- CMA/CA CMA/CAs Non- CMA/CA Working-Age Population 394, , ,100 94,400 Labour Force 250, , ,100 79,200 Employment 233, , ,500 71,900 Full-Time Employment 198, , ,900 66,800 Part-Time Employment 35,000 16,000 12,600 5,100 Unemployment 16,700 14,300 8,600 7,300 Not in Labour Force 144,500 96,300 24,100 15,200 Participation Rate 63.4% 58.1% 87.1% 83.9% Employment Rate 59.2% 51.9% 82.5% 76.2% Unemployment Rate 6.7% 10.7% 5.3% 9.2% Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table In 2017, the majority of New Brunswick s working-age population (63.2%), and labour force (65.2%) was living in one of the province s seven CMA/CAs. Since 2012, the province s CMA/CA working-age population has increased by 15,600, while the non-cma/ca working-age population in the province has decreased by 13,400. Page 6 of 26

8 Those living in one of the province s seven CMA/CAs had a higher participation rate and a lower unemployment rate than those living in non-cma/ca parts of the province. In 2017, the province s CMA/CA population had a participation rate of 63.4% and an unemployment rate of 6.7%, while the province s non-cma/ca population had a participation rate of 58.1% and an unemployment rate of 10.7%. 47.3% of the province s non-cma/ca working-age population was 55 years or older, compared to 38.9% of the province s CMA/CA working-age population. Almost half (48.7%) of those who were employed in goods-producing sectors were living in non- CMA/CA parts of the province in 2017, despite the non-cma/ca population only accounting for 33.8% of overall employment. While this trend was true for most of the goods-producing sectors (agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas, and manufacturing in particular), employment in the utilities sector was largely concentrated in the province s CMA/CAs. Rural (non-cma/ca) parts of the province had lower participation rates and higher unemployment rates among both the total working-age and core working-age (ages 25 to 54) populations in Labour Force Statistics for the three Largest CAs in Northern New Brunswick (2017) Characteristic Bathurst CA Edmundston CA Miramichi CA Three CAs Combined Other Northern NB v Working-Age Population 27,700 15,700 23,500 66, ,800 Labour Force 16,100 9,200 13,900 39,200 86,700 Employment 14,200 8,600 12,400 35,200 76,300 Unemployment 1, ,500 4,000 10,300 Not in Labour Force 11,600 6,500 9,600 27,700 65,100 Participation Rate 58.1% 58.6% 59.1% 58.6% 57.1% Employment Rate 51.3% 54.8% 52.8% 52.6% 50.3% Unemployment Rate 11.8% 6.5% 10.8% 10.2% 11.9% Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Special Run Data and CANSIM Table Compared to the province as a whole, the three largest CAs in northern New Brunswick (Bathurst, Edmundston and Miramichi) had a relatively high unemployment rate (10.2% combined, compared to the provincial average of 8.1%), and a relatively low participation rate (58.6% compared to the provincial average of 61.5%) in However, Edmundston stands out among the cities in northern New Brunswick as having a low unemployment rate that is comparable to the southern parts of the province. In 2017, New Brunswickers living in non-cma/ca regions of northern New Brunswick had a relatively high unemployment rate (11.9%) and a relatively low participation rate (57.1%) compared to not only the province s CMA/CA population, but also to those living in non- CMA/CA parts of southern New Brunswick. Page 7 of 26

9 Labour Force Statistics for the three Largest CMA/CAs in Southern New Brunswick (2017) Characteristic Moncton CMA Saint John CMA Fredericton CA Three CMA/CAs Combined Other Southern NB Working-Age Population 127, ,500 83, , ,500 Labour Force 81,800 69,700 53, ,800 69,400 Employment 76,900 65,500 50, ,700 63,000 Unemployment 5,000 4,200 3,000 12,200 6,300 Not in Labour Force 45,500 35,800 30, ,500 48,100 Participation Rate 64.3% 66.1% 63.8% 64.7% 59.1% Employment Rate 60.4% 62.1% 60.2% 60.9% 53.6% Unemployment Rate 6.1% 6.0% 5.6% 6.0% 9.1% Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Special Run Data and CANSIM Tables and Compared to the province as a whole, the province s three largest urban centres (Moncton, Saint John and Fredericton) had a relatively low unemployment rate (6.0% combined, compared to the provincial average of 8.1%), and a relatively high participation rate (64.7% compared to the provincial average of 63.4%) in Compared to the province as a whole, in 2017, those who were living outside of the province s three major urban centres, but still within southern New Brunswick, had a relatively high unemployment rate (9.1% compared to the provincial average of 8.1%) and a relatively low participation rate (59.1% compared to the provincial average of 63.4%). The labour force characteristics of the province s three largest urban centres are fairly in line with national averages. In 2017, Fredericton, Moncton and Saint John had a combined unemployment rate of 6.0% and a combined participation rate of 64.7%; nationally, CMA/CAs had an unemployment rate of 6.2% and a participation rate of 66.6%. Page 8 of 26

10 Industry The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is an industry classification system developed by the statistical agencies of Canada, Mexico and the United States. It is designed to provide common definitions of the industrial structure of the three countries and a common statistical framework to facilitate the analysis of the three economies. Employment by Sector (New Brunswick, 2017) Natural Resources Utilities Construction Manufacturing Retail and Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information, Culture and Recreation Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Business, Building and other Support Services Educational Services Healthcare and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Other Services Public Administration 13,400 3,500 24,800 31,700 17,300 10,800 16,900 15,600 16,300 26,200 23,800 15,300 23,300 56,300 57,800 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table In terms of employment, the healthcare and social assistance (57,800) and retail and wholesale trade (56,300) sectors were by far the largest sectors in New Brunswick in 2017, accounting for 16.4% and 16.0% of total employment respectively; nationally, these sectors accounted for 12.9% and 15.3% of total employment respectively. Employment in the following sectors was proportionally much more common in New Brunswick compared to the country as a whole in 2017: o Utilities o Healthcare and Social Assistance o Public Administration o Natural Resources Page 9 of 26

11 Employment in the following sectors was proportionally much less common in New Brunswick compared to the country as a whole in 2017: o Professional, Scientific and Technical Services o Information, Culture and Recreation o Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing 110% Employment in the Goods-Producing and Service-Producing Sectors, Relative to 2007 (New Brunswick, 2017) 100% 90% 80% Goods-Producing Sectors Services-Producing Sectors Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table Between 2007 and 2017 in New Brunswick, employment in the services-producing sectors experienced a modest increase (+1.3%), while employment in the goods-producing sectors experienced a noticeable decrease (-10.1%). In terms of specific sectors, the greatest employment growth was seen in the healthcare and social assistance (+20.7%), public administration (+10.4%) and finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+6.3%) sectors, while the natural resources (-19.8%), utilities (-18.6%) and information, culture and recreation (-17.6%) sectors saw the greatest relative decreases in employment. Page 10 of 26

12 Occupation The National Occupational Classification (NOC) is the authoritative resource on occupational information in Canada providing a standard taxonomy and framework for dialogue on Labour Market Information. It gathers more than 30,000 job titles into 500 Unit Groups (occupations), organized according to skill levels and skill types. Employment by Broad Occupational Categories (New Brunswick, 2017) Management Business, Finance and Administration Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Health Education, Law And Social, Community and Government Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport Sales and Service Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators Natural Resources, Agriculture and Related Manufacturing and Utilities 27,300 53,500 19,500 32,000 43,700 5,800 52,000 10,700 16,600 92,000 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table Sales and service occupations (92,000) accounted for 26.1% of total employment in the province in 2017, by far the largest share of the ten broad occupational categories; nationally, sales and service occupations accounted for 24.3% of employment. Employment in the following broad occupational categories was proportionally much more common in New Brunswick compared to the country as a whole in 2017: o Natural Resources, Agriculture and Related Production o Health Employment in the following broad occupational categories was proportionally much less common in New Brunswick compared to the country as a whole in 2017: o Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport o Natural and Applied Sciences and Related o Management Page 11 of 26

13 110% Employment for Occupations Typically Requiring a Post-Secondary Education, Relative to 2007 (New Brunswick, 2017) 100% 90% 80% Occupations Typically Requiring a PSE Other Occupations Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table Between 2007 and 2017 in New Brunswick, employment in occupations that typically require a post-secondary education vi experienced a modest increase (+5.0%), while employment in occupations that do not typically require a post-secondary education experienced a noticeable decrease (-9.2%). In terms of specific broad occupational categories, the greatest employment growth was seen in occupations in health (+20.7%), education, law and social, community and government services (+9.8%) and business, finance and administration (+3.3%), while occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport (-20.5%), management (-14.2%) and manufacturing and utilities (-9.3%) saw the greatest relative decreases in employment. Page 12 of 26

14 Wages and Employment Income Wage Statistics for Working-Age and Core Working-Age Employees (2017) Working-Age Core Working-Age Statistic New New Canada Brunswick Brunswick Canada Median Hourly Wage Rate $19.35 $22.62 $21.63 $25.00 Average Hourly Wage Rate $22.39 $26.16 $24.15 $28.39 Percentage Earning Minimum Wage 7.2% 6.5% 3.0% 3.0% Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table In 2017, the median hourly wage rate among New Brunswick employees was $ This represented the second lowest median among the provinces, and was well below the national median of $ Among core working-age New Brunswickers, the median hourly wage rate was $21.63 ($25.00 nationally). In 2017, 7.2% of working-age New Brunswickers were earning minimum wage, compared to 6.5% nationally. Of the core working-age population, 3.0% were earning minimum wage, both within the province and at a national level. In 2017, New Brunswick minimum wage earners tended to be young, non-unionized, part-time employees who were working in lower skilled sales and service occupations. For more information on minimum wage earners, visit the Reports and Surveys section on NBjobs.ca (under the Job Trends tab). Employment Income Statistics for the Working-Age and Core Working-Age Populations (2015) Working-Age Core Working-Age Statistic New New Canada Brunswick Brunswick Canada Percentage with Employment Income 68.3% 71.3% 88.0% 87.1% Median Employment Income $29,124 $33,684 $38,276 $43,349 Average Employment Income $37,611 $46,057 $45,342 $54,179 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census Page 13 of 26

15 In 2015, within New Brunswick 68.3% of the working-age population had employment income in 2015, compared to 71.3% nationally; however, this disparity is in part the result of New Brunswick s relatively higher percentage of older residents. Within New Brunswick, 88.0% of core working-age New Brunswickers had employment income in 2015, compared to 87.1% at a national level. In 2015, median employment income in New Brunswick was $29,124 among the working-age population and $38,276 among the core-working age population. Nationally, median employment income was $33,684 among the working-age population and $43,349 among the core working-age population. Of New Brunswickers who had employment income, 37.1% earned less than $20,000 in 2015, compared to 34.8% at a national level. On the other hand, 4.9% of New Brunswickers who had employment income earned $100,000 or more in 2015, compared to 8.7% at a national level. Skills and Education In 2016, over half (57.6%) of New Brunswickers between the ages of 25 and 64, had completed some form of post-secondary education, 28.5% had only their high school diploma or equivalency certificate, while the remaining 13.9% had no certificate, diploma or degree. Of the 230,810 New Brunswickers ages 25 to 64 with a post-secondary education as of 2016, 37,715 had an apprenticeship or trades certificate, 104,595 were college graduates, 7,680 had a university certificate below a bachelor's degree and 80,820 had a bachelor degree or higher. New Brunswick had a lower percentage of its population aged 25 to 64 with a post-secondary education (57.6%) compared to Canada as a whole (64.8%). Among those aged 25 to 64, compared to the general Canadian population, New Brunswickers were more likely to have a college education, but less likely to have a university education or an apprenticeship or trades certificate in Page 14 of 26

16 Distribution of Population by Highest Level of Education (Ages 25 to 64, 2016) No Certificate, Diploma or Degree 13.9% 11.5% High School Diploma or Equivalency 23.7% 28.5% Apprenticeship or Trades Certificate 9.4% 10.8% College 22.4% 26.1% University - Below Bachelor Level 1.9% 3.1% University - At or Above Bachelor Level 20.2% 28.5% NB Canada Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census Compared to those living in non-cma/ca parts of the province, New Brunswickers ages 25 to 64 living in one of the province s three major urban centres were: o Much more likely to have a bachelor s degree or higher (27.0% compared to 12.4%) o More likely to have a college diploma (27.0% compared to 24.6%) o Less likely to have an apprenticeship or trades certificate (8.0% compared to 10.7%) Population Distribution by Educational Attainment for Select Regions (Ages 25 to 64, NB, 2016) Highest Level of Education 3 Major Other Non- Centres CMA/CAs CMA/CA No Certificate, Diploma or Degree 8.9% 15.8% 20.0% High School Diploma or Equivalency 27.2% 28.5% 30.3% Post-Secondary 63.9% 55.7% 49.7% Apprenticeship or Trades Certificate 8.0% 11.3% 10.7% College 27.0% 26.7% 24.6% University - Below Bachelor Level 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% University - Bachelor Level or Above 27.0% 15.9% 12.4% Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census New Brunswickers with no certificate, diploma or degree had a much lower participation rate and a much higher unemployment rate relative to other New Brunswickers. While the population of those with no certificate, diploma or degree was significantly older than these other populations, this large gap persisted across all age groups. Page 15 of 26

17 Labour Force Statistics by Highest Level of Education (Ages 25 to 64, 2016) Characteristic No Certificate, Diploma or Degree High School Diploma or Equivalency Post-Secondary Population (Ages 25 to 64) 55, , ,810 Labour force 33,200 86, ,270 Employment 25,795 76, ,655 Unemployment 7,400 9,660 13,615 Not in Labour Force 22,440 28,300 35,540 Participation Rate 59.7% 75.3% 84.6% Employment Rate 46.4% 66.8% 78.7% Unemployment Rate 22.3% 11.2% 7.0% Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census In general, those with a post-secondary education earned considerably more than those without one. In 2015, median employment income among the population aged 25 to 64 with a bachelor s degree or higher was higher in New Brunswick than at national level ($56,876 compared to $54,653 for those with a bachelor s degree, and $72,009 compared to $65,118 for those with a university education above a bachelor s degree). Median Employment Income by Highest Level of Education (Ages 25 to 64, New Brunswick, 2015) No Certificate, Diploma or Degree High School Diploma or Equivalency Non-Apprenticeship Trades Certificate Apprenticeship Certificate College University - Below Bachelor Level $22,047 $30,201 $31,331 $43,221 $37,790 $43,443 University - Bachelor's Degree $56,876 University - Above Bachelor Level $72,009 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census For more information on education and other Census topics, visit the Reports and Surveys section on NBjobs.ca (under the Job Trends tab). Page 16 of 26

18 Women Labour Force Statistics by Sex (New Brunswick, 2017) Women Men Working-Age Population (Ages 15+) 319, ,100 Labour Force 185, ,700 Employment 173, ,200 Full-Time Employment 139, ,400 Part-Time Employment 34,200 16,800 Unemployment 11,500 19,500 Not in Labour Force 134, ,500 Participation Rate 58.0% 65.1% Employment Rate 54.3% 58.7% Unemployment Rate 6.2% 9.8% Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table Women (15+) had a lower participation rate than men in both New Brunswick (58.0% compared to 65.1%) and the country as a whole (61.5% compared to 70.2%); however, among New Brunswick s youth population (ages 15 to 24), women had a higher participation rate (64.7% compared to 60.0%) than men. Participation Rate by Age Group and Sex (New Brunswick, 2017) 64.7% 60.0% 83.0% 89.1% 58.2% 68.4% 8.0% 16.7% 15 to 24 years 25 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over Women Men While labour force participation among core working-age women has been increasing over time, over the past several years, this growth has levelled off. Between 1977 and 2009, the participation rate among core working-age women increased by an average of 1.2 p.p. annually; however, since then, it has remained largely unchanged (83.0% in 2017 compared to 83.1% in 2009). Women had a lower unemployment rate than men in both New Brunswick (6.2% versus 9.8%) and the country as a whole (5.8% versus 6.8%). While there are likely many factors contributing to this, this is large part a reflection of the types of industries and/or occupations that individuals from each sex are employed in; for example women in New Brunswick are much more likely to be employed in broad occupational groups that traditionally have had very low unemployment rates such as: o Health occupations o Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services Page 17 of 26

19 Youth o Business, finance and administrative occupations Women were more likely than men to be working part-time in 2017 (19.7% of employed women were working part-time, compared to 9.4% of employed men). At a national level, 26.2% of employed women were working part-time, compared to 12.7% of employed men. In 2017, 24.0% of New Brunswick women who were employed part-time were willing, able, and would have preferred to be working full-time, compared to 25.6% of men who were employed part-time. Although women had a higher incidence of post-secondary education credentials than men in 2016, they were less likely to be employed in an occupation that usually requires a postsecondary education or significant work experience. According to the 2016 Census, 60.6% of New Brunswick women ages 25 to 64 had some form of post-secondary certificate, diploma or degree, compared to 54.4% of men ages 25 to 64. On the labour side, 59.2% of employed females between the ages of 25 and 64 were employed in occupations that usually require a post-secondary education or significant work experience vii, compared to 62.9% of the employed male population. In New Brunswick in 2017, the median hourly wage rate for women was $18.22, compared to $20.00 for men. At a national level, the median hourly wage rate for women was $21.00, compared to $24.91 for men. This is likely in large part related to the types of industries and/or occupations that individuals from each sex are employed in, among other factors. Labour Force Statistics for Select Age Groups (New Brunswick, 2017) Youth (Ages 15 to 24) Core Working-Age (Ages 25 to 54) Working-Age Population 81, ,600 Labour Force 51, ,300 Employment 44, ,400 Full-Time Employment 26, ,600 Part-Time Employment 17,700 17,800 Unemployment 6,900 15,900 Not in Labour Force 30,900 39,300 Participation Rate 62.3% 86.0% Employment Rate 54.0% 80.3% Unemployment Rate 13.5% 6.6% Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table Those ages 15 to 24 accounted for 13.1% of the province s working-age population and 13.3% of its labour force in As of 2017, New Brunswick s youth population had decreased for 39 consecutive years.. New Brunswick youth (ages 15 to 24) had a slightly higher participation rate (62.3%) than the general New Brunswick working-age population (61.5%) in 2017; however, the participation rate Page 18 of 26

20 among the core working-age population (86.0%) far exceeded the youth participation rate. Since reaching a record high level of 68.5% in 2008, the province s youth participation rate has been trending downwards Participation Rate by Age Group (New Brunswick, 2017) 62.3% 86.0% 63.3% 12.1% 15 to 24 years 25 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table Youth in New Brunswick (62.3%) had a slightly lower participation rate in 2017 compared to the national average among youth (63.9%) 60.0% of the New Brunswick youth population who were employed in 2017 were working fulltime (30+ hours per week). While this was well above the national rate among youth of 51.0%, it was well below the percentage of employment that was full-time among the total working-age population (85.5%). New Brunswick youth had a higher unemployment rate (13.5%) than both the general New Brunswick working-age population (8.1%) and the Canada-wide youth population (11.6%) in Within the youth population, those ages 15 to 19 had a much higher unemployment rate (18.6% compared to 10.3%) and a much lower participation rate (50.5% compared 73.2%) than those between the ages of 20 and 24. The median hourly wage rate for New Brunswick youth in 2017 was $12.00, compared to $19.35 for the general population. At a national level, the median hourly wage rate for youth was $13.00, compared to $22.62 for the general population. New Brunswick students between the ages of 15 and 24 had a participation rate of 38.9% and an employment rate of 32.8% during the school months (January to April and September to December) in In contrast, the participation rate among non-student youth during the school months was 83.4%, while the employment rate was 71.6%. Page 19 of 26

21 Older Workers Labour Force Statistics for Select Age Groups (New Brunswick, 2017) Ages 55 to 64 Ages 65+ Core Working-Age (Ages 25 to 54) Working-Age Population 117, , ,600 Labour Force 74,200 17, ,300 Employment 67,100 16, ,400 Full-Time Employment 58,300 9, ,600 Part-Time Employment 8,800 6,800 17,800 Unemployment 7,100 1,200 15,900 Not in Labour Force 43, ,500 39,300 Participation Rate 63.3% 12.1% 86.0% Employment Rate 57.3% 11.2% 80.3% Unemployment Rate 9.6% 6.9% 6.6% Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table Of the estimated 262,200 New Brunswickers ages 55 and over in 2017, approximately 91,700 were participating in the labour force. The ages 55 and over population accounted for 42.0% of the province s working-age population and 23.9% of its labour force in In 2007, the ages 55 and over population accounted for 32.9% of the province s working-age population. In general, labour force participation is significantly lower among older age groups in the province. In 2017, the participation rate for New Brunswick s core working-age population was 86.0%, compared to 63.3% among the population ages 55 to 64, and 11.2% for those ages 65 and over. Labour force participation among the province s older population has increased significantly in recent years. Between 2007 and 2017, the participation rate among the population ages 55 to 64 increased from 53.9% to 63.3%, while the participation rate for those ages 65 and over increased from 6.5% to 12.1%. Compared to Canada as a whole, older workers in New Brunswick were slightly less likely to be participating in the labour force. The participation rate among New Brunswickers ages 55 to 64 (63.3%) trailed the comparable national rate (65.0%) by 2.7 p.p., while the participation rate for New Brunswickers ages 65 and over (12.1%) trailed the comparable national rate (14.2%) by 2.1 p.p. 62.3% Participation Rate by Age Group (New Brunswick, 2017) 86.0% 75.4% 50.4% 23.0% 6.3% 15 to 24 years 25 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 years and over Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table Page 20 of 26

22 In 2017, 86.9% of employed New Brunswickers ages 55 to 64 were working full-time (compared to 82.4% nationally); however, individuals ages 65 and over were much less likely to be employed full-time. In 2017, 58.3% of employed New Brunswickers ages 65 and over were working full-time (compared to 57.6% nationally). In 2017, New Brunswickers between the ages of 55 and 64 had a higher unemployment rate (9.6%) than both the general New Brunswick working-age population (8.1%) and the Canadawide age 55 to 64 population (5.8%). Those 65 years and over had an unemployment rate of 6.9% within the province, and 5.1% nationally. According to the 2016 Census, 47.5% of New Brunswickers ages 55 to 64 had some form of postsecondary certificate (55.7% nationally), diploma or degree. On the labour side, 53.3% of employed New Brunswickers aged 55 to 64 were employed in occupations that usually require a post-secondary education or significant work experience (60.2% nationally). The median hourly wage rate for New Brunswickers 55 years and over in 2017 was $19.25, compared to $19.35 for the general population. At a national level, the median hourly wage rate for ages 55 and over was $23.45 compared to $22.62 for the general population. Aboriginal Peoples Labour Force Statistics by Aboriginal Identity (New Brunswick, 2016) Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Working-Age Population (Ages 15+) 22, ,795 Labour force 13, ,135 Employment 10, ,140 Unemployment 2,750 39,995 Not in Labour Force 8, ,655 Participation Rate 60.4% 61.6% Employment Rate 48.3% 54.9% Unemployment Rate 20.1% 10.9% Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census As of 2016, there were 22,600 working-age New Brunswickers who identified as Aboriginal, with 13,655 of these individuals participating in the labour force. The Aboriginal population accounted for 3.6% of both the province s working-age population and labour force; nationally, the Aboriginal population accounted for 4.3% of the country s working-age population and 4.0% of its labour force. Of the 22,600 working-age New Brunswickers who identified as Aboriginal, 26.9% were living on reserve in Page 21 of 26

23 In recent Censuses, the number of individuals who identify as Aboriginal has increased significantly (+67.1% between 2006 and 2016); while factors such as natural population growth and migration likely also played significant roles, this growth is likely in large part a product of changes in how individuals self-identify. In 2016, the participation rate of the Aboriginal population (60.4%), was very similar to that of the non-aboriginal population (61.6%); however, among the typical working-age (ages 15 to 64) population, this gap was much larger. In 2016, the participation rate among the typical workingage Aboriginal population was 67.2%, compared to 76.2% for the non-aboriginal population. The New Brunswick Aboriginal population had a much higher unemployment rate than the province s non-aboriginal population. In 2016, the unemployment rate of the Aboriginal population in New Brunswick was 20.1% (15.2% nationally), compared to 10.9% for the province s non-aboriginal population (7.4% nationally). In 2016, the participation rate for those who identified as Aboriginal and were living on reserve (54.4%) was noticeably lower than it was for both the off reserve Aboriginal population (62.3%) and the non-aboriginal population (61.6%). Similarly, the unemployment rate for those who identified as Aboriginal and were living on reserve (29.9%) was noticeably higher than it was for both the off reserve Aboriginal population (17.4%) and the non-aboriginal population (10.9%). It s worth noting that Aboriginal people in New Brunswick living off-reserve were much more likely to be living in one of the province s urban centres than the on-reserve population. In New Brunswick in 2016, among those ages 25 to 64, 53.4% of the Aboriginal population living off reserve, and 47.1% of the Aboriginal population living on reserve had some form of postsecondary education, compared to 57.8% of the non-aboriginal population. Aboriginal people in New Brunswick between the ages of 25 and 64 were more likely to have a apprenticeship or trades certificate than the non-aboriginal population (12.6% of the Aboriginal population compared to 9.3% of the non-aboriginal population). Aboriginal people in New Brunswick between the ages of 25 and 64 were much less likely to have a bachelor s degree or higher than the non-aboriginal population (10.9% of the Aboriginal population compared to 20.5% of the non-aboriginal population). Those with an Aboriginal identity in New Brunswick had a median individual total income of $23,869 in 2015, compared to $31,337 for the province s non-aboriginal population. For more information on Aboriginal Peoples and other Census topics, visit the Reports and Surveys section on NBjobs.ca (under the Job Trends tab). Page 22 of 26

24 Immigrants Labour Force Statistics of Immigrants and Non-Immigrants (New Brunswick, 2016) Immigrant Non-Immigrant Working-Age Population (Ages 15+) 30, ,020 Labour Force 17, ,415 Employment 16, ,535 Unemployment 1,530 40,880 Not in Labour Force 12, ,610 Participation Rate 59.0% 61.7% Employment Rate 53.9% 54.7% Unemployment Rate 8.5% 11.3% Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census As of 2016, there were 30,470 working-age immigrants living in New Brunswick, with 17,965 of these individuals participating in the labour force. Immigrants accounted for 4.9% of the province s working-age population and 4.7% of the province s labour force. More than one-fifth (22.3%) of these working-age immigrants had immigrated to New Brunswick between 2011 and The concentration of immigrants in 2016 was especially high in the province s three main urban centres: Fredericton, Moncton, and Saint John. These three areas alone (which accounted for approximately half the province s total population) accounted for 67.6% of the province s immigrant population and 80.0% of those who immigrated to the province between 2011 and In 2016, the participation rate among immigrants living in New Brunswick was 59.0%, compared to 61.7% for the non-immigrant population. For those ages 15 to 64, the participation rate for the New Brunswick immigrant population was 72.9%, compared to 76.0% for the nonimmigrant population. In 2016 the unemployment rate for the province s immigrant population (8.5% within the province, 7.7% nationally) was lower than that of the province s non-immigrant population (11.3% within the province, 7.7% nationally). New Brunswick immigrants were much more likely to have a post-secondary education than the non-immigrant population. In 2016, 71.3% of immigrants between the ages 25 and 64 who were living in the province had some form of post-secondary certificate, diploma or degree, compared to 56.8% of the non-immigrant population in this same age group. Immigrants living in New Brunswick were less likely to have a college education than the nonimmigrant population (20.6% of immigrants ages 25 to 64, compared to 26.5% of the nonimmigrant population). Immigrants living in New Brunswick were less likely to have an apprenticeship or trades certificate than the non-immigrant population (6.8% of immigrants ages 25 to 64 compared to 9.6% of non-immigrants). Page 23 of 26

25 A much larger share of the immigrant population ages 25 to 64 (39.6%) had a bachelor s degree or higher, compared to the non-immigrant population (19.0%). This is in large part a reflection of Canada and New Brunswick s immigration policies; more than two-thirds of the immigrant population aged 25 to 64 with a bachelor s degree or higher received their certificate, degree or diploma in a country other than Canada. The New Brunswick immigrant population had a median individual total income of $28,978 in 2015, compared to $31,205 for the province s non-immigrant population. For more information on the Immigrant population and other Census topics, visit the Reports and Surveys section on NBjobs.ca (under the Job Trends tab). Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) Labour Force Statistics of Typical Working-Age Persons with Disabilities (New Brunswick, 2012) Characteristic Persons With Persons Without Disabilities Disabilities Typical Working-Age Population (Ages 15 to 64) 61, ,020 Labour force 28, ,430 Employment 23, ,520 Unemployment 4,730 33,910 Not in Labour Force 29,260 90,990 Participation Rate 49.4% 79.2% Employment Rate 41.2% 71.4% Unemployment Rate 16.6% 9.8% Source: Statistics Canada, 2012 Canadian Survey on Disability As of 2012, there were 61,650 typical working-age (ages 15 to 64) persons with disabilities (PWDs) in the province, with 28,580 of these individuals participating in the labour force. PWDs accounted for 12.3% of the typical working-age population, but only 7.6% of the typical workingage population who were participating in the labour force. Of the 61,650 typical working-age PWDs in the province, 29,940 (48.6%) had disabilities that were classified as mild or moderate, while the remaining 32,710 (53.1%) had disabilities that were classified as severe or very severe. Of the various types of disabilities in the province in 2012, the most common types of disabilities among the typical working-age population were related to pain, flexibility and mobility. Page 24 of 26

26 PWDs in New Brunswick have a much lower participation rate than persons without disabilities; in 2017, the participate rate among typical working-age PWDs in the province was 49.4%, compared to 79.2% for typical working-age persons without disabilities. Participation rates for typical working-age PWDs were lowest among those with memory and development disabilities. Of the 29,260 PWDs not in the labour force, 15,750 reported being completely prevented from working as a result of their disability/disabilities. PWDs have a much higher unemployment rate than persons without disabilities; in 2017, the unemployment rate among typical working-age PWDs in the province was 16.6% compared to 9.8% for typical working-age persons without disabilities. Disabilities are much more prevalent among older New Brunswickers. In 2012, 19.0% of the ages 44 to 64 population in the province had a disability, compared to 8.2% of the ages 25 to 44 population, and 4.0% of the ages 15 to 24 population. Prevalence of Disability for Typical Working-Age Adults by Age Group (New Brunswick, 2012) 19.0% 4.0% 8.2% 15 to 24 years 25 to 44 years 45 to 64 years Source: Statistics Canada, 2012 Canadian Survey on Disability In 2011, 54.0% of New Brunswick working-age PWDs made under $20,000 in total income (including both employment income and government transfers),, compared to 38.0% of those without a disability. viii Results from the 2017 Canadian Survey on Disability are planned to be released in December i For the purposes of this document, Statistic Canada s medium growth (M1) projection scenario #1 was used; for more information on these projections and scenarios, visit: x eng.pdf ii While international migration levels in New Brunswick have historically been low in comparison to levels in other parts of the country, they have increased considerably over the past two years, reaching recorded highs (since Statistics Canada began tracking such numbers in 1971). Similarly, while net interprovincial migration is consistently negative, it has been trending in the positive direction over the past three years. iii The dependency ratio is sometimes also referred to as the demographic dependency ratio (with the same going for the senior and child dependency ratios); furthermore, the age categories used may vary. iv Disaggregated data was not available for the CA of Campbellton Page 25 of 26

27 v For the purposes of this document, Northern New Brunswick is defined as the Northeast and Northwest Economic Regions, while Southern New Brunswick is defined as the Southeast, Southwest or Central Economic Regions. vi Employment counts for occupations typically requiring a post-secondary education are based on NOC (National Occupational Classification) skill levels and include all management occupations and all occupations that were assigned skill level A ( occupations usually require university education ) or skill level B ( occupations usually require college education or apprenticeship training ). vii For the purposes of this document, occupations that usually require a post-secondary education or significant work experience refers to occupations that are classified as skill level A (including management occupations) or B by NOC (National Occupational Classification) skill level A or B, or for more details visit: viii Income shares include individuals with no income Page 26 of 26