OVERVIEW. Demographic Trends. Challenges & Opportunities. Discussion
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1 People on the Move James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill January 2017
2 OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Discussion
3 what CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL January 2017
4
5 6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises Again The Browning of America Marrying Out is In The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandma s Well and Grandpa s Too!
6 People on the Move The South Rises Again!
7 The South Continues To Rise...Again!
8 Years SOUTH S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, U.S. Absolute Population Change South s Absolute Population Change South s Share of Change ,974,129 8,468,303 27% ,123,138 9,339,455 33% ,886,128 15,598,279 30% ,497,947 22,650,563 50% ,035,665 29,104,814 49%
9 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY Region REGION, Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S. 309,050,816 26,884, % Northeast 55,417,311 1,753, % Midwest 66,972,887 2,480, % South 114,555,744 14,318, % West 72,256,183 8,774, %
10 SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population Change Percent of Total UNITED STATES 26,884, NORTHEAST 1,753, MIDWEST 2,480, SOUTH 14,318, WEST 8,774,
11 NET MIGRATION TRENDS, Northeast Midwest South West Total -1,032-2,008 +2, Black Hispanic Elderly Foreign born = Net Import = Net Export
12 STATE SHARE OF SOUTH S NET GROWTH, Region/State Absolute Change State s Share The South 14,318, % Texas 4,293, % Florida 2,818, % Georgia 1,501, % North Carolina 1,486, % Other Southern States 4,218, %
13 GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, The Region Domestic Foreign Years In Out Net In Out Net ,125,096 3,470, , , , , ,874,414 3,477, , , , ,300 Florida Domestic Foreign Years In Out Net In Out Net , , ,002 41,745 24,108 17, , ,087-13,156 33,095 32,094 1,001
14 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, Region 2015 Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S. 321,418,820 12,071, % Northeast 56,283, , % Midwest 67,907, , % South 121,182,847 6,319, % West 76,044,679 3,925, %
15 SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region UNITED STATES Absolute Population Change Percent of Total 12,071, NORTHEAST 896, MIDWEST 929, SOUTH 6,319, WEST 3,925,
16 STATE SHARES OF SOUTH S NET GROWTH, Region/State Absolute Change State s Share The South 6,319, % Texas 2,244, % Florida 1,421, % Georgia 501, % North Carolina 483, % Virginia 357, % Other Southern States 1,311, %
17 Two colorful demographic processes are drivers of change Browning & Graying of America
18 The Browning of America Immigration-driven population change
19
20 The Numbers Legal Immigrants Year Annual Flow , , , , ,137, ,067,000 Refugees, Parolees, Asylees Year Annual Flow , , , , ,500
21 The Numbers Cont d Illegal Immigrants 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades Three million granted amnesty in million illegal immigrants remained after 1986 reforms October 1996: INS estimated there were 5 million illegal immigrants in U.S. Since August 2005: Estimates of illegal population have ranged between 7 million and 15 million Today: An estimated 11.5 million unauthorized immigrants reside in U.S.
22 NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, Year All Classes Exchange Visitors Academic & Vocational Students ,756, ,023 (1%) 271,861 (2%) ,539, ,213 (1%) 285,496 (3%) ,574, ,644 (1%) 355,207 (2%) ,640, ,364 (1%) 395,480 (2%) ,690, ,743 (1%) 699,953 (2%) ,824, ,435 (1%) 741,921 (2%) ,907, ,176 (1%) 687,506 (2%) ,381, ,138 (1%) 917,373 (2%) ,082, , 931 (1%) 1,702,730 (3%)
23
24 Number of Immigrants (in millions) U.S. Immigrant Population, Year
25 U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2014 Race/Ethnicity Foreign Population Share of Total (%) Total 42,235, Hispanic 19,300, White Alone, not Hispanic Black Alone, not Hispanic Asian Alone, not Hispanic Other Alone, not Hispanic 7,655, ,377, ,036, ,
26 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY Race RACE & ETHNICITY, Population Absolute Change Percentage Change Total 308,745,538 27,323, % Non-Hispanic 258,267,944 12,151, % White 196,817,552 2,264, % Black 37,685,848 3,738, % AI/AN 2,247, , % Asian 14,465,124 4,341, % NH/PI 481, , % 2 or More Races 5,966,481 1,364, % Hispanic 50,477,594 15,171, %
27 NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share US 27,323, South 14,318, Texas 4,293, Florida 2,818, Georgia 1,501, North Carolina 1,486,
28 NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share US 12,071, South 6,319, Texas 2,224, Florida 1,421, Georgia 501, NC 483, VA 357,
29 MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2014 Race Total Male Female United States White Alone White, Non-Hispanic Black Alone AI/AN Alone Asian Alone NH/PI Alone Two or More Races Hispanic January
30 RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White 66% 50% 49.6% Blacks 17% 16% 15.0% Hispanics 15% 26% 26.0% Other 2% 8% 9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).
31 RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White 67% 47% Blacks 12.8% 13% Hispanics 14% 29% Asian 5% 9% Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.
32 The Graying of America The Silver Tsunami is about to hit
33 Key Drivers Changes in Longevity Declining Fertility Aging of Boomer Cohort
34 U.S. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH YEAR AGE
35 Centenarians in the U.S. Year Number , , ,000
36 COMPLETED FERTILITY FOR WOMEN YEARS OLD Year Percent Childless Avg. Number of Children Percent Higher Order Births* *Three or more Children
37 TOTAL FERTILITY RATES FOR U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2012 Race/Ethnicity Total Fertility Rate All Races 1.88 Hispanic 2.18 Non-Hispanic White 1.76 Blacks 1.90 Asian 1.77 Native American 1.35
38 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, Age 2010 Absolute Change Percentage Change < TOTAL 104,853,555 5,416, % 82,134,554-2,905, % 81,489,445 19,536, % 40,267,984 5,276, % 308,745,538 27,323, %
39
40 Prescription Drug Deaths,
41
42 U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, ( ) Age 50 Age 55 Age 62 Age 65 Average Number/Day 12,344 11,541 9,221 8,032 Average Number/Minute January
43
44
45
46 Metropolitan and Micropolitan Destinations of Elderly Migrants,
47
48 The Multigenerational Workforce
49 Multi-Generational Diversity Generation Birth Years Current Ages Est. Workforce Participation in 2013* Veterans Traditionalists WWII Generation Silent Generation Baby Boomers Boomers % (7M) % (60M) Generation X Baby Busters Generation Y Millennials % (51M) % (40M) January *Source: AARP Leading a Multi-Generational Workforce, 2007
50 Succession Planning & Accommodations for Elder Care Organizational Game Changers!
51 Signs of Global Aging Japan sells more adult diapers than baby diapers China has the 4:2:1 problem Today, 9% of the Chinese population is elderly (129 million) By 2050, the Chinese elderly population will total 330 million (25% of the total) larger than the entire U.S. population today
52 Signs of Global Aging, Cont d For the first time in 100 years, deaths exceeded births among U.S. non-hispanic whites in 2011 Today, 16% of the U.S. population is 65+; 26% will be elderly by Close to 40 million people in the U.S. provided unpaid eldercare in 2011 and at an estimated cost of $30 billion in loss work productivity.
53 Signs of Global Aging Cont d 10 million millennials are caring for adult family members. 25 percent of U.S. caregivers are between 18 and 34 years of age. Google launches a medical company Calico to defeat death by prolonging life.
54 Family Life is Changing Ozzie and Harriet are no longer the norm!
55 Marrying Out is In January
56 INTERMARRIAGE TREND, % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity January
57 INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008 January
58 Living Arrangements are more diverse And Interesting!
59 COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA S WELL And Grandpa s Too!
60 Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent Households, Household Type Absolute Number 2010 Absolute Change All 74,718 2, No Grandparents 67, Both Grandparents Grandmother Only 2, , Grandfather Only Percent Change January
61 Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent-Headed Households by Presence of Parents, 2010 Household Type All Children (in thousands) Living with Both Parents Living with Mother Only Living with Father Only All 74, % 23.1% 3.4% 4.0% No Grandparents Both Grandparents Grandmother Only Grandfather Only 67, % 21.2% 3.3% 2.1% Living with Neither parent 2, % 40.6% 5.2% 36.1% 1, % 48.4% 4.5% 33.2% % 45.9% 4.4% 23.6% January
62 Type of Couple Married opposite sex Unmarried opposite sex Couple Households with Children, 2009 Number of Households with Children Percent Own Children 23,453, ,493, Same Sex 104, Percent Unrelated Children
63 Same Sex Couple Households with Children, 2009 Type of Couple Number of Households with Children Percent Own Children Same Sex 104, Unmarried Male-Male Unmarried Female- Female 33, , Percent Unrelated Children
64 DIVERSITY RULES...but Challenges Abound September
65 Workforce Planning and Development Challenges The End of Men? The Triple Whammy of Geographic Disadvantage Education necessary, but not sufficient
66 The End of Men?
67 FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION % Female
68 JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) 2009 (Q3) RECESSION Industry Women Men Construction -106,000-1,300,000 Manufacturing -106,000-1,900,000 Healthcare +451, ,100 Government +176, ,000 Total -1,700,000-4,700,000
69 THE PLIGHT OF MEN Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to Selective male withdrawal from labor market rising non-employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.
70 COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010 DEGREE MALE FEMALE DIFFERENCE Associate s 293, , ,000 Bachelor s 702, , ,000 Master s 257, , ,000 Professional 46,800 46, Doctor s 31,500 32,900 1,400 TOTAL 1,330,300 1,902, ,000
71 Gender Composition of Student Head Count Enrollment in NC Colleges & Universities, Fall 2014 Type of Institution Total Enrollment Male Enrollment Percent Male Enrollment All Institutions 554, , Bible Colleges 3,880 2, Public Institutions 459, , UNC System 220,121 95, PWIs 181,246 81, MSIs 38,875 14, HBUs 32,653 11, Community Colleges 239, , Private Institutions 90,974 38, Senior Colleges & Universities 90,296 37, Junior Colleges
72 The Triple Whammy of Geographical Disadvantage The Human Capital Challenge
73 Racial Typology of U.S. Counties
74 Racial Typology of U.S. Counties
75 Racial Typology of U.S. Counties
76 Racial Typology of U.S. Counties
77 U.S. Racial Segregation by Census Tract
78 U.S. Racial Segregation by Census Tract
79 U.S. Racial Segregation by Census Tract
80 U.S. Racial Segregation by Census Tract
81 U.S. School Age Poverty by Census Tract
82 U.S. School Age Poverty by Census Tract
83 U.S. School Age Poverty by Census Tract
84 U.S. School Age Poverty by Census Tract
85 The Triple Whammy of Geographic Disadvantage
86 Summary Indicators of Exposure Level of Vulnerability Number of Youth Percent Non-White Triple Whammy 9.8 million 93 Double Whammy 12.2 million 81 Single Whammy 20.0 million 39 No Whammy 32.1 million 24
87
88
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90 NC s Triple Whammy of Geographical Disadvantage The Human Capital Challenge
91 Absolute and Percent Population Change, Area 2010 Population Absolute Change Percent Change U.S. 308,745,538 27,323, % South 114,555,744 14,318, % North Carolina 9,335,483 1,46, %
92
93 NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND ETHNICITY, % 547% 332% 129% 127% 133% 182% Native Immigrant White Black Hispanic Asian Pacific Islander
94 Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in North Carolina, Demographic Group All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic Native Born Foreign Born Source: *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months. Median Age Fertility/1000 women*
95 Absolute and Percent Population Change, Area 2015 Population Absolute Change Percent Change U.S. 321,418,820 12,071, % South 121,182,847 6,319, % North Carolina 10,042, , %
96 NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share NC 408,
97 NC Absolute Population Growth by County,
98 NC Absolute Population Growth by County,
99 NC Absolute Population Growth by County,
100 NC Absolute Population Growth by County,
101 Demographic Change Typology, NC Counties,
102
103 CHANGE IN THE RACE/ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF NC PUBLIC SCHOOLS, Group Enrollment Enrollment Absolute Change Percent Change Total 1,443,471 1,268, , AI/AN 19,347 18, Black 370, ,712-22, Asian 43,108 23,576 19, Hispanic 238,837 56, , White 714, ,251-61, Source: DPI, The Statistical Profile Online
104 Race/Ethnic Profile of NC Public Schools, Race/Ethnicity Absolute Number Share of Total All Students 1,443, American Indian 19, Asian 43, Hispanic 238, Black 370, White 714, Two or more races 55, Pacific Islander 1,
105 Racial Typology of North Carolina Counties
106 Racial Typology of North Carolina Counties
107 Racial Typology of North Carolina Counties
108 Racial Typology of North Carolina Counties
109 North Carolina Racial Segregation by Census Tract
110 North Carolina Racial Segregation by Census Tract
111 North Carolina Racial Segregation by Census Tract
112 North Carolina Racial Segregation by Census Tract
113 North Carolina Poverty by Census Tract
114 North Carolina Poverty by Census Tract
115 North Carolina Poverty by Census Tract
116 North Carolina Poverty by Census Tract
117 The Triple Whammy of Geographic Disadvantage
118 Suspension Rates by County Type, Grades 9-13, County Type Majority- Majority Racial Generation Gap Majority- Minority Average Daily Membership Number of Suspensions Suspensions /100 Students Range of rates 263,910 40, ,535 33, ,885 11,
119 Reportable Crimes by County Type, Grades 9-13, County Type Majority- Majority Racial Generation Gap Majority- Minority Average Daily Membership Reportable Crimes Reportable Crimes/1000 Students Range of Rates/1000 students 253,793 3, ,706 1, ,
120 Number of Test Takers Male-Female Presence Disparity 6400 Total Number of EOC Test Takers males females / / / /2011 Year Graph shows total number of male and female students tested of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Duplin, Halifax, Northampton, and Pamlico)
121 Percent of High School Graduates Requiring Remedial Course Work , , , , , None One Two or MoreHS more GradsPercent of HS Grads
122 Education is Necessary...but insufficient
123 Key Takeaways Addressing the challenges facing our young people is a strategic imperative. We must create a more inclusive economy. Rejecting our diversity is the wrong path to take if the U.S. is to remain globally competitive.
124 THE END
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