Western North Carolina Regional Outlook. Center for Regional Development Western Carolina University

Transcription

1 Western North Carolina Regional Outlook Center for Regional Development Western Carolina University Kathleen M. Brennan Assistant Professor of Sociology Christopher A. Cooper Assistant Professor of Political Science & Public Affairs Inhyuck Steve Ha Assistant Professor of Economics

2 Table of Contents Executive Summary Chapter 1: Introduction and Scope of the Project Chapter 2: Public Opinion in WNC: Results from a Telephone Survey Chapter 3: The State of the Economy in WNC Chapter 4: Conclusion Appendix A: Additional Figures from Chapter Appendix B: Details on Survey Data Collection and Characteristics of the Sample Appendix C: Additional Figures from Chapter About the Authors Acknowledgements

3 Executive Summary The purpose of Western Carolina University s Regional Outlook is to provide a comprehensive overview of the major economic, social, and political issues and trends in Western North Carolina. 1 To accomplish this goal, aggregate county and regional data were compiled and analyzed and a public opinion poll was randomly distributed to residents in the 23 Westernmost counties in the state. Although we do not offer specific policy recommendations, we hope the findings presented here are useful to policymakers and interested citizens in the region. The North Carolina State Data Center recently estimated that the population of WNC is more than 1,18, people, an increase of roughly 16% since 199. Much of this increase was the result of migration from other parts of the country to WNC. The State Data Center predicts that more than 93% of the increase in WNC s population at the end of this decade will be the result of in-migration. The impact of migration on the changing demographic nature of WNC is important with regard to the effectiveness of policy decision-making in the region. Since 198, several notable changes have occurred in the demographic structure of WNC as a whole: An increase has occurred in all age groups over 4 years of age, a trend that is particularly evident in the 65 and over age group. The number of residents in these age groups has increased net of the natural increase in the aging population for the region. Counties that most notably demonstrate this trend include Alleghany, Ashe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Mitchell, Polk, Transylvania, and Yancey. An increase has occurred in all minority group racial categories in WNC, particularly since 199. Of these groups, the most marked increase over time has occurred for Hispanics, whose population in the region has grown by 4% since 199. This growth is represented to such a degree that, in many counties (e.g., Alleghany, Ashe, Clay, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, Mitchell, and Yancey), the Hispanic population has surpassed the African American population in number. Increases in educational status have also been observed. As a region, WNC has seen an increase in the number of residents who are attending and/or graduating from four year colleges. The number of residents who have some college or who have earned their college degrees has more than doubled since 198. Since 199, the region has also seen a 25% increase in the number of earned high school diplomas. Since 198, a notable increase in earned high school diplomas has been observed in Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, and Burke counties. Regional Outlook Poll In order to obtain a representative overview of public opinion in the 23 Westernmost counties of North Carolina, we conducted a telephone survey. The respondents were selected through random digit dialing and the data were collected during November 23. Student interviewers made phone calls weekdays from 4:-9:pm and 1:am-5:pm on Saturdays. 668 respondents were surveyed. We are 95% confident that our results are accurate within 1.3%. Our major findings are as follows: 1 As a region, Western North Carolina is defined using the 23 counties that constitute the AdvantageWest region of the state: Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Swain, Transylvania, Watauga, Wilkes, and Yancey Counties. 2

4 There is little consensus about zoning in the region. About 45% of citizens are either somewhat or strongly in favor of zoning while 35% are somewhat or strongly against zoning. The remaining 2% are indifferent with regard to zoning in WNC. Residents with lower incomes, those with less education, and those who have lived in WNC a greater proportion of their lives tend to oppose zoning. Residents tend to support building new roads and widening existing roads in WNC. More than 75% indicated that they support building new roads in Western North Carolina. Respondents who answered that they do not support building new roads were asked if they support widening already existing roads in Western North Carolina. About 71% of those who indicated that they did not support building new roads responded that they support widening already existing roads in WNC. Respondents generally don t feel that the rate of unemployment in WNC will improve in the coming year. When asked whether they think the number of working age adults who are currently unemployed in Western North Carolina will increase, decrease, or stay the same over the next year, about half responded that it will increase, compared to almost 3% who responded that it will decrease. When asked to consider unemployment over the next five years, the picture becomes slightly more positive, with about 4% responding that unemployment will increase and 35% responding that it will decrease. When asked what is the most important factor for attracting new business/industry to WNC, respondents tended to favor providing working age adults with continuing education (41%) and providing financial support for small business start-ups (35%). About 41% of WNC residents believe their families will be better off financially a year from now. Almost 75% of WNC residents believe it is a good time to buy a home. 85% of residents in Western North Carolina have some type of health care coverage; roughly equivalent to the nation as a whole. Of these residents, about 7% are covered through their place of employment. Although a moderate percentage of the region has health care coverage, nearly 45% of those polled were dissatisfied with health care in the Western region of the state. When asked to identify the biggest problem with health care in WNC, the majority of responses centered on the inflated cost of health care related to coverage, premiums, and prescriptions. Other frequently identified problems included lack of choice in carrier and provider. The majority of respondents believe they can trust their state, national, and local governments either none or some of the time (as opposed to most or all of the time) Economic Outlook Western North Carolina s economy is starting to rebound. While most economic indicators are currently incomplete, preliminary and estimated data since the second half of 23 indicate that the regional economy has come out of its two-year slowdown. We expect the economy to continue to grow in 24. Major findings and forecasts are as follows: The per capita personal income of North Carolina was 92.6% of the national average in The regional per capita personal income was $21,82, which was lower than the statewide average and only 79.% of the national average. WNC s median household income increased faster than other regions in North Carolina during the period of 1989 and However, the actual income level in 1997 was $29,742, which was the second lowest among seven economic development regions and only 84.2% of the statewide average. The annual percent changes in total employment in WNC and NC were 6.5% and 6.6% respectively in 2. In the two following years, WNC experienced negative employment 3

5 growth. WNC s employment has grown slowly; however, the growth rate was smaller than both statewide and nationwide averages. The projected annual growth in employment in 24 is about 1% compared to.4% in 23. Income disparities across the state still persist. In 1997, about 13% of persons in the region were below poverty level, giving WNC a moderate ranking compared to six other economic development regions. However, it was above the statewide average. Both business failure and new business rates were about the same as statewide averages. Historically, the largest sectors in this region were manufacturing and trade (both wholesale and retail-sectors). However, data show that services are currently the biggest sector in the region. Employment shares in the manufacturing industry decreased from 38.1% in 197 to 21.4% in 2. The retail trade industry grew from 12.% to 17.8% over 3 years, while wholesale trade stayed constant at 2.7% over the same period of time. Services increased rapidly from 15.9% in 197 to 25.8% in 2. The farm population declined over these years and agricultural service increased. In the private sector, agriculture, mining, and manufacturing lost a significant number of jobs. The mining industry lost about one-third of jobs during the past 1 years. Most new job creation occurred in the services and construction sectors. Both sectors experienced an increase of 5% in new jobs during this period of time. Based on the Location Quotient analysis, the top five employment-share industries are furniture (LQ=2.5), mining (LQ=2.42), pulp and paper (LQ=1.86), hotels and lodging (LQ=1.86), and rubber and leather products (LQ=1.63). In the tourism industry, the number of travelers by airline decreased in 23 compared to 22. Both airplane deplanements and enplanements in Asheville/ Hendersonville airport dropped 43.6% and 6.% in July 23 compared to a year ago. The monthly hotel/motel occupancy rates also show negative annual growth throughout the year. The number of welcome center visitors increased in 23. These data reflect changes in transportation preference from flying to driving after the 21 terrorist attacks. There is no significant evidence to show that the number of visitors increased in 23. 4

6 Chapter 1: Introduction and Scope of the Project One year ago, Western Carolina University (WCU) held its first Regional Summit in order to find ways in which the university can better contribute to the needs of Western North Carolina (WNC). Because Western is a state-identified growth institution, now is an ideal time for the university to interact and collaborate with its regional constituencies. Committed to regional engagement, Western is working to offer a source of expertise and knowledge that can be tapped for the benefit of all involved. The information published in this Regional Outlook report provides evidence of this regional commitment. The purpose of the Regional Outlook project is to provide a comprehensive overview of the major economic, social, and political issues and trends in WNC. The information gained from this project is intended to help decision-makers make more informed choices based on demographic and economic trends in the region, as well as the identified needs and concerns of the people of WNC. To accomplish our goal, we compiled and analyzed aggregate county and regional data. We also conducted a public opinion poll that was randomly distributed to residents in the 23 Westernmost counties in the state. To our knowledge, the information presented in this report represents the most comprehensive view of the region to date. To facilitate the distribution of this information, faculty and staff from WCU are available to participate in a series of forums at the request of interested parties and decision-makers WNC. These include, but are not limited to policymakers, members of regional planning boards, university officials, and the larger public. At these forums, the findings will be presented and discussed. Paper copies of this report are available upon request. Please contact The Center for Regional Development at WCU at (828) WNC Regional Outlook Area We define WNC using the 23 counties that constitute the AdvantageWest region of the state: Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, 5

7 Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Swain, Transylvania, Watauga, Wilkes, and Yancey County. Located in the Blue Ridge/Appalachian Mountains, the Western part of the state makes up a distinct topographical region of North Carolina which is reflected in its unique culture and heritage. The North Carolina State Data Center 22 population estimate for the 23 Westernmost counties is more than 1,185,. The 2 North Carolina Census found that the population for the 23 counties had grown since 199 by more than 143, people, an increase of roughly 16% in 1 years. None of the counties experienced a loss of population from 199 to 2. Most of the population increase in the 23 counties was the result of migration from other parts of the country to WNC. From 199 to 2, many of the 23 counties experienced a negative natural growth, meaning there were fewer births than deaths. At the same time, these counties had a much higher gain from migration due to population increases. The State Data Center population projection for the year 21 for WNC indicates a population of more than 1,13, people, a 13% increase in population since 2. More than 93% of the increase in the region s population at the end of this decade will be the result of in-migration. Demographic Characteristics In light of the growth in population due to migration, the distributional trends of key demographic characteristics are important for understanding and addressing the changing economic, social, and political needs in the region. Changes in the demographic nature of WNC have a potentially important impact on the effectiveness of policy decision-making in the region. Regional demographic characteristics of interest include age, race, educational attainment, gender, and marital status. Using census data from 198, 199, and 2, we were able to identify several notable changes in the demographic structure of WNC as a whole: Age 6

8 Since 198, the population for all age groups over 4 years of age has exhibited an increase compared to populations under 4 years of age, a trend that is particularly evident in the 65 and over age group. The number of persons above age 4 has increased net of the natural increase in the aging population for the region. This suggests that the increase in older age groups in the region is at least partially due to the in-migration of persons from these age groups into the region. Counties that most notably demonstrate this trend include Alleghany, Ashe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Mitchell, Polk, Transylvania, and Yancey. In Allegheny, Ashe, Cherokee, Graham, Haywood, Mitchell, and Yancey counties, the above 4 age groups surpassed all other ages in size in 2, with the exception of those under 18 years of age. In Clay, Henderson, Macon, Polk, and Transylvania counties, the 65 and over population surpassed all other age group populations in size WNC Age yrs. & under years 3-39 years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years 65 yrs. & over Figure 1-1 At the same time the 4 years and over population has been increasing in WNC, the population aged 18 to 29 has been leveling off. In several counties, a noticeable decrease in this age population has occurred since 199. This trend is demonstrated in Ashe, Caldwell, Graham, Haywood, Mitchell, Rutherford, Transylvania, Wilkes, and Yancey counties. Of these counties, four are classified by the Rural Center as 1 st or 2 nd Tier economically distressed counties. 7

9 Race African Americans are the largest racial minority in WNC, followed by Hispanics, Native Americans, and Asians. Since 198, an increase has occurred in all racial minority group categories in WNC. This trend is particularly evident since 199. Since this time, the African American population has grown by 8%, the Native American population by roughly 25%, and the Asian American population by 15%. However, the most marked increase over time has occurred for persons of Hispanic origin, whose population in the region has grown by nearly 4% since 199. This growth is represented to such a degree that in 2, the Hispanic population of 9 out of 23 WNC counties surpassed the African American population to become the largest racial minority in those counties (e.g., Alleghany, Ashe, Clay, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, Mitchell, and Yancey). WNC Racial Minorities Black Asian Native American Hispanic Other Figure 1-2 In 1 of the remaining 14 counties, Hispanics were the second-most represented racial minority. Only in Cherokee County were Hispanics third after Native Americans and African Americans respectively. In Jackson and Swain Counties, the Hispanic population was roughly equal to the African American population, tying as the second largest racial minority group after Native Americans. In Burke County, the Hispanic population was roughly equal to the Asian population, tying as the second largest racial minority group after African Americans. 8

10 Educational Attainment There have also been changes in educational status in WNC. As a region, WNC has experienced an increase in the number of residents who are attending and/or graduating from fouryear colleges. The number of residents who have some college or who have earned their college degrees has more than doubled since 198. According to the Rural Center, 13-2% of the population in 11 WNC counties has an earned college degree, 2.1-3% of the population in six WNC counties has an earned college degree, and 3.1-4% of the population in the remaining six WNC counties has an earned college degree. WNC Educational Attainment 35 8th Grade or less Some High School H.S. Graduate Some College 4 s College - College Graduate 5+ s College - Graduate Degree Figure Although the number of residents with at least some college has increased, the plurality of residents have not been educated past High School. Since 199, the region has seen a 25% increase in the number of earned high school diplomas. In 19 of WNC s 23 counties, a curvilinear trend is demonstrated for high school graduates since 198. From 198 to 199, the number of residents with a high school education decreased, but then increased from 199 to 2. In the remaining four counties (Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, and Burke), notable increases in earned high school diplomas were observed from 198 to 2. 2 Education data represents population aged 25 and older 4 s College College Graduate category: 198 data represents population with 4 years college 199 and 2 data represents population with bachelors degree Graduate Degree 5+ s College category: 198 data represents population with 5+ years college 199 data represents population with Master s, Doctorate or Professional degree 2 data represents population with Graduate or professional degree 9

11 These trends in educational attainment reflect the general trend for North Carolina in educational attainment according to data published by the Rural Center. Compared to urban areas in North Carolina, rural areas have more persons with some high school or earned high school degrees, and fewer people with some college or earned college degrees. Because the majority of WNC is classified as rural, these findings are not surprising. Gender As a region, there are more women in WNC s population about 3% more women than men at every data point (198, 199, and 2). Since 198, the number of women to men has been roughly parallel, with the largest gap occurring in 199. This trend is demonstrated in most of the counties. Some notable exceptions include the counties of Burke, McDowell, and Watauga, which all demonstrated nearly identical numbers of women and men within each county in 2. Avery County and Swain County demonstrate nearly identical numbers of men and women at previous time points. WNC Gender Male Female Figure 1-4 Marital Status Since 198, there has been an increase in all marital status categories in WNC. The married population has increased by 23% since 198, the never-married population has increased by about 25%, and the widowed, divorced, and separated population has increased by roughly 65%. Counties 1

12 that demonstrate noticeably different trends in marital status include Ashe and Avery Counties. In Avery County, the size of the married population has almost doubled since 198. In Ashe County, the size of the married population has decreased by 25% since WNC Marital Status Married Wid/Div/Sep Never Married Figure Summary The county trends for key demographic variables of interest generally hold for the Western part of the state. Based on this, it seems that regional level policies could be very beneficial to WNC as a whole. We hope that the information presented in this report is useful to policymakers and interested citizens in the region. In subsequent chapters, we discuss our findings regarding social, political, and economic issues in WNC. The following two chapters will review the major social and political findings of the Regional Outlook poll that was conducted at the end of 23 and provide an economic analysis and forecast of the region. The final chapter will integrate the major conclusions of the study. In the final chapter, we offer a brief discussion of the implications of our findings. 3 Marital status data represents population aged 15 and older 11

13 Chapter 2: Public Opinion in Western North Carolina (Results from a Telephone Poll) To complement the demographic analysis presented in the previous chapter and the economic analysis in the subsequent chapter, we found it necessary to learn about perceptions of a variety of social, economic, and political issues in WNC. In order to obtain a representative overview of public opinion in the 23 Westernmost counties of North Carolina, we conducted a telephone survey. Survey items for the Regional Outlook poll were derived from responses to a previous poll of policymakers in WNC. The pre-poll presented policymakers with the opportunity to identify the primary issues of interest to the people they represent and to residents of WNC in general. See Appendix B for a discussion of the method of data collection and respondent characteristics. What Issues Are Most Important? The first goal of the poll was to determine which issues respondents believe are most important to the region. The issues represented in the poll that were identified as important by regional policymakers included education, employment and industry, health care, land use planning (zoning), regional heritage, technology, environment, tourism and transportation. Each respondent was asked the following question: On a scale of 1 to 1 where one equals not important at all and 1 equals very important, how important to you is (insert issue here)? To minimize question ordering effects, the order of the issues was rotated for each respondent. For instance, while one respondent might be asked a question about regional heritage first, another may be asked a question about the environment first. Minimizing question ordering effects increases our certainty that the responses we receive reflect the true opinion of the respondents and the region in general. Our survey results indicate that the issues of most importance to residents of the region are (ranked by order of importance): education, health care, employment and industry, the environment, and technology. Land use planning and tourism are comparatively less important to residents of WNC. 12

14 How Important are the Following Issues Technology Regional Heritage Health Care Education Tourism Land Use P lanning Transportation Environment Employment and Industry Mean Figure 2-1 This information tells us what is salient to citizens of WNC, but it does not tell us specific information regarding how a respondent feels about each issue. For instance, it is revealing to know that education is an important issue to residents of WNC, but we do not know on which side of the education debate each respondent falls. We do not know whether they support paying higher taxes to fund regional education or they feel that too much money is put into education. To more fully understand some particulars of each issue, we asked respondents more specific questions related to the previously stated issues. The following sections address respondents views regarding specific aspects of these issues. The Personal Economy Our data suggest that residents of WNC make slightly, though not substantially, less money than the rest of the country. Eighteen percent of respondents reported a total household income between $3, and $39,999. The next largest income category was $2,-$29,, followed closely by $4,-$49,999. Regarding employment, we asked respondents what their primary activity was the prior week. About half (48%) reported working full-time. Twenty percent reported being retired. Substantially fewer respondents indicated that they worked part time, were in school, keeping house, unemployed, with a job (but not at work), or some other category. 13

15 Primary Activity Last Week Other Keeping House In Scho ol Retired Unemployed With a job, but not at work due Working Part Time Working Full-time % R e s p o nd ing Figure 2-2 Employed respondents were also asked about their primary jobs. Thirty-three percent reported that they work in professional and technical professions, 14% reported working as skilled laborers, and 13% reported working in sales. The least common type of occupation was farming, with about 2% of the sample occupying this job. Occupations in WNC Farm Unskilled Semi-Skilled Skilled Worker Service Sales Clerical Higher Administrator Professional and Technical % Responding Figure 2-3 For the most part, citizens of WNC feel positively about their place in the economy. Virtually half (49%) say they do not worry at all about the possibility of losing their job. More than half (52%) are very satisfied with the work they do. About 41% believe the financial outlook 14

16 of their families will be better off a year from now. Almost three quarters of the respondents (74%) believe it is a good time to buy a home. A portion of the region is less optimistic about their place in the economy. Approximately 14% claim that they are very dissatisfied with their job. About 11% worry about their job a great deal. Likewise, about 11% believe their families will be worse off financially a year from now. Finally, about one fifth of respondents (19%) believe it is a bad time to buy a home. These results are presented in figures 2-4 through 2-7. To What Extent do you Worry About the Possibility of Losing Your Job? 6 5 % Responding Not at All A Little To Some Extent A Great Deal Figure 2-4 How Satisfied are you With the Work you Do? 6 5 % Responding Very Dissatisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied Figure

17 Financial Outlook for your Family Better Off 41% Worse Off 11% About the same 48% Figure 2-6 Is This a Good Time or Bad Time to Buy a Home? Bad Time 19% Neither Good or Bad 7% Good Time 74% Figure 2-7 Perceptions of the Economy in General Perceptions of the economy in general vary more than perceptions of one s personal economic situation. When asked, Do you think the number of working age adults who are currently unemployed in WNC will increase, decrease, or stay the same? about half of the sample (54%) responded that unemployment in the region will increase. About one third of respondents (29%) answered that unemployment will decrease. The remaining 17% believed unemployment in the region will stay the same. Perceptions of the economy over the next five years are more positive, 16

18 with only 47% of the respondents believing it will decrease, and about 37% of respondents believing that it will stay the same over the next five years. Do You Think the Number of Working Age Adults who are Currently Unemployed in Western North Carolina Will: Decrease 29% Increase 54% Stay the Same 17% Figure 2-8 How About the Next 5 s? Do You Think the Number of Working Age Adults who are Currently Unemployed in WNC Will: Increase 16% Decrease 47% Stay the Same 37% Figure 2-9 In light of respondents perceptions of unemployment, we also asked respondents what they believe is most important for attracting new business and/or industry to WNC. We presented them with five options: providing better transportation access to the region, providing better Internet services, providing financial support for small business start-ups, providing working age adults with continuing education, or something else. The two most frequently cited responses were providing 17

19 working age adults with continuing education (41%) and providing financial support for small business start-ups (35%). The other options were considerably less popular. Citizens in the region seem to have fairly unified opinions of how to attract business and/or industry to WNC. Development and Construction Our pre-poll suggested that development is an important and frequently debated issue in WNC. To get a better feel of the types of development issues that concern residents, we asked a series of questions about development in general, followed by more specific questions about landusing planning, road construction, and tourism. First, we asked a fairly generic question: Do you support increased development in the Western region of the state? Although vague, we felt this question would give us a good sense of people s overall response to development. The results are somewhat surprising. Three quarters of the sample indicate that they support increased development. Despite perceptions that development is not popular in the region, we found that the majority of respondents support development. Clearly development involves trade-offs. To get at one commonly perceived trade-off, we next asked respondents how much green space they were willing to trade for this development. Responses to this question varied. Although a few respondents answered a lot (8%) or none (1%), the majority answered that they were willing to trade some (44%) or a little (39%). How Much Green Space are you Willing to Trade for This Development? % Responding A Lot Some A Little None Figure

20 Next, we asked respondents how they felt about growth in WNC. The responses do not show a discernable trend. Fifty-eight percent of respondents answered that they felt equally negative and positive, 25% answered mostly positive, and 17% responded that growth in WNC is mostly negative. How do you Feel About Growth in WNC? Mostly Positive 25% Mostly Negative 17% Equally Negative & Positive 58% Figure 2-11 All respondents then were asked if they supported building new roads in WNC. Seventyseven percent responded that they do support building new roads, compared to 23% who answered that they do not. Respondents who answered that they do not support new roads in WNC were then asked, Do you support widening already existing roads in WNC? About three quarters of respondents (71%) who indicated that they do not support building new roads responded that they support widening already existing roads in the region. Respondents clearly differentiated between building new roads and widening existing roads, and there seems to be a consensus in the region that something must be done regarding roads. Policymakers who wish to look for politically viable options may want to consider widening existing roads, rather than building new roads. This seemingly small change could substantially increase support for road development in WNC. 19

21 Do You Support Building New Roads in Western North Carolina No 23% Yes 77% Figure 2-12 Do you Support Widening Already Existing Roads in Western North Carolina? No 29% Yes 71% Figure 2-13 Zoning Zoning is generally considered a hot topic in WNC. Conventional wisdom in the region suggests that citizens do not support zoning. Until this point, however, there has been little evidence of how citizens of WNC actually feel about zoning. To move past perceptions of opinions and provide some evidence of the distribution of actual opinion, we asked respondents, How do you feel about zoning in the region? Our results indicate that the respondents in our sample are divided on this issue. Although 45% of citizens are strongly or somewhat in favor of zoning, 2

22 about 35% are strongly or somewhat against zoning. Despite perceptions that the region sharply opposes zoning, our data suggest that opinion is much more evenly split on the issue. To find out what types of citizens tend to support zoning, we ran an ordinal logistic regression model and found that individuals who have less education, who have lower incomes, and who have lived in WNC a greater proportion of their lives tend to oppose zoning. Those who seek to understand this issue in greater detail need to spend more time finding the reasons behind this division in opinion. How do you Feel About Zoning in the Region? 3 25 % Responding Strongly Against Somewhat Against Not Against or in Favor Somewhat in Favor Strongly in Favor Figure 2-14 Health Care Eighty-five percent of the polled residents in WNC have some type of health care coverage; roughly equivalent to the nation as a whole. Of these residents, about 7% are covered through their places of employment. According to The Rural Center, North Carolina is one of 1 states with the greatest number of people under age 65 without health insurance. Sixteen percent of our sample under the age of 65 reported that they did not have health insurance; roughly equivalent to the state as a whole. Although a moderate percentage of the sample has health care coverage, nearly 45% of those polled were dissatisfied with health care in the Western region of the state. When asked to identify the biggest problem with health care in WNC, the majority of responses centered on the inflated cost of health care related to coverage, premiums, and prescriptions. Other frequently identified 21

23 problems included lack of choice in carrier and provider. This finding coincides with data published by The Rural Center, in which 18 of the 23 counties in WNC have fewer than 2 physicians per 1, people. Do You Have Health Care Coverage? No 23% Yes 77% Figure 2-15 Are you satisfied with health care in the western region of the state? Yes 56% No 44% Figure 2-16 Internet Access If we had conducted this poll just a few years ago, it is likely that Internet access would not rank as a very important issue. Clearly, times have changed. When asked how important it is for residents of WNC to be connected to the Internet, about half (49%) of our respondents stated that 22

24 it is very important. Only 12% responded that Internet access is not very important. Next, we wanted to determine which residents felt Internet access was a more important issue. Interestingly, we found that age, gender and income make no difference. However, those who have lived in WNC a smaller proportion of their lives believe that Internet access is more important than those who have lived in the region for more of their lives. How Important is it for Residents of WNC to be Connected to the Internet? Not Very Important 12% Very Important 49% Somewhat Important 39% Figure 2-17 Respondents also were asked, What is the biggest problem with Internet access in WNC? We presented respondents with the following response choices: affordability of service, quality of service, choice of providers, something else, or no problem. Affordability of service was identified as the biggest problem. Quality of service and choice of service providers ranked as the next biggest problems with Internet service in WNC. Twenty-four percent of respondents felt there was no problem with Internet service in WNC. Not surprisingly, people with lower incomes were much more likely to believe that affordability was the most important issue. We hope to explore this issue further in future years. 23

25 Biggest Problem with Internet Service in WNC 3 25 % Responding Quality of Service Choice of Service Providers Affordability of Service Something Else No Problem Figure 2-18 Politics and Government WNC is a politically diverse region that has experienced rapid partisan change in recent years. For instance, from , there was a 15 percentage point increase in the average proportion of Republican office-holders at the county level in WNC. Even with these recent changes, however, the region is fairly split as to partisan identification. To find out about the political orientation of our sample, we asked respondents whether they generally think of themselves as Democrats, Republicans, or members of some other party. Our results suggest that our sample is not strongly Democratic or Republican. In fact, less than two percentage points separate the proportion of respondents who are Republican from the proportion who are Democrats. The data also suggest that there remain a number of independents in WNC, as about one quarter of respondents indicates that they generally think of themselves as independents. To find out if the ideology of WNC residents matched their party ID, we asked respondents to indicate their ideology on a standard seven-point ideology scale where 1 indicates extremely liberal and 7 indicates extremely conservative. Although more respondents indicate that they are in the middle of the ideological spectrum, Figure 2-2 indicates that residents of WNC tend to be more conservative. 24

26 Generally Speaking, do you Usually Think of Yourself as a Republican, Democrat, Independent, or a Member of some other Political Party? % Responding Republican Democrat Independent Other Party Party Figure 2-19 Ideology (1=Extremely Liberal; 7=Extremely Conservative 3 25 % Responding Figure 2-2 A number of commentators have expressed concern that citizens are less trusting of government at the national, state, and local levels than they used to be. This decline in trust has been linked to decline in voter turnout and is seen as a sign of the decline in trust and civic mindedness. As a result, scholars have investigated trust and social capital in a variety of communities across the United States. Although it is beyond the scope of this study to address social capital, we did seek to determine individual levels of trust in government in WNC. Specifically, we asked respondents three questions. We first asked, How much of the time do you think you can trust the local government to do what is right? We followed this with a similar 25

27 question about trust in state government, and another about trust in national government. Figures 2-21 through 2-23 display the results of this analysis. How Much of the Time do you Think you can Trust the Local Government to do What is Right? None Some Most All % Responding Figure 2-21 How Much of the Time do you Think you can Trust the State Government to do What is Right? None Some Most All Figure

28 How Much of the Time do you Think you can Trust the National Government to do What is Right? 6 5 % Responding None Some Most All Figure 2-23 Although local government seems to be the most trusted level of government, the data do not show a great deal of difference in trust between the three levels of government. It seems that residents of WNC do not differentiate between levels of government, but rather trust all three levels at approximately equal amounts. This is different from findings in the rest of the country that indicate that levels of trust in government are significantly higher for local and state than national government. Taken together, Figures 2-21 through 2-23 also indicate that residents of WNC are not particularly trusting of government. At all levels of government, less than one third of respondents believe they can trust their government most or all of the time. This could go a long way toward explaining why voter turnout has decreased from the levels of the 195s and 196s. This is a disconcerting finding for those who are concerned with the future of participatory democracy in the Western region of the state. Education Funding and Taxes Finally, we asked respondents whether they would be willing to pay higher taxes to improve education funding in the Western region of the state. About three out of every four respondents in our sample answered yes to this question. Previously, we learned that, compared to other issues in WNC, citizens are concerned with education. The findings displayed in Figure 24 indicate that they 27

29 are willing to pay to improve education. Citizens are clearly concerned about this issue and are willing to do something to improve regional education. Are You Willing to Pay Higher Taxes to Improve Educational Funding in the Western Region of the State No 28% Yes 72% Figure 2-24 Conclusion We have presented a variety of results about the most important issues to residents of WNC, but what do these findings lead us to conclude about the region? First, we conclude that there are a number of misconceptions about public opinion in WNC. For example, many would believe that residents of WNC are universally opposed to zoning. Instead, the region looks evenly divided on this subject. Second, we conclude that there are few issues in the region on which citizens are united. Unfortunately for policymakers, it appears that divisions are represented for most issues. Further, this division is frequently explained by how much of a person s life has been spent in WNC. It is the task of local policymakers and activists to unite natives and newcomers and achieve a unified vision of what WNC is and can be. 28

30 Chapter 3: Western North Carolina Economic Outlook From the second quarter of 1991 to the second quarter of 21, the United States experienced the largest economic expansion in the country s history. Unfortunately, the economic good times were short-lived. The nation witnessed a major economic downturn beginning in the third quarter of 21. This downturn hit North Carolina particularly hard. Although the attacks of September 11, 21 contributed to the nation s economic woes, economic forecasting models predicted a relatively quick recovery for 22. The national economy began to grow at the end of 23. The consistent monetary and fiscal policy of the federal government played an important role in boosting business and consumer spending. Western North Carolina s economy is starting to rebound. While most economic indicators are currently incomplete, preliminary and estimated data from the first half of 23 indicate that the regional economy is rebounding after a two-year slowdown. The majority of economists expect that the economy will continue to grow in 24, but no one is certain how fast the growth will occur. Can we return to the peak level of 2? Our study area is also known as AdvantageWest, which is one of seven economic development regions in North Carolina and consists of the 23 Westernmost counties in North Carolina (out of 1 in the entire state). The region covers approximately 1, square miles; which is larger than eight other U.S. states. The population in the region seems to be declining relative to the rest of the state. In 198, the region had 13.7% of the population in the state. By 199, this fell to 12.9% of the state s population. By 2, 12.4% of the NC population resided in WNC. The population increased by only 16.7% between 199 and 2 compared to the statewide average of 21.4%. The median age of the population was 4.5 in 2, which was the highest among seven regions. The white population in the region was 92.9%, which was the highest in the state. 29

31 Key Trend and Status Indicators by Economic Development Region Indicator s State of NC AdvantageW est Carolinas Partnership Piedmont Triad Research Triangle Southeast Global Transpark Northeast (%) 2 1.% 12.4% 22.5% 18.2% 19.3% 12.% 11.4% 4.3% Change % 16.7% 26.8% 17.9% 34.6% 19.5% 1.4% 8.1% Median Age in s White % 92.2% 76.2% 76.% 69.8% 61.1% 64.7% 58.5% Per Capita Personal Income 1998 $25,181 $22,416 $27,873 $26,325 $28,42 $21,574 $21,986 $19,48 Median Household Income 1997 $35,32 $29,742 $36,944 $34,887 $35,681 $29,465 $3,352 $27,739 Median Household Income 1989 $26,647 $21,627 $28,12 $26,65 $26,33 $22,157 $22,846 $21,257 Percent Change % 37.5% 31.9% 3.9% 35.5% 33.% 32.9% 3.5% Persons below poverty level % 13.1% 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.8% 16.3% 19.1% Business Failure Rate % 6.9% 6.9% 7.% 6.7% 7.1% 7.4% 7.2% New Business Rate % 11.4% 12.3% 11.5% 12.% 11.2% 1.7% 1.1% Unemployment Rate % 3.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.% 4.9% 5.% 5.4% Average Annual Wage 1999 $29,321 $24,642 $32,882 $28,929 $33,87 $24,78 $24,728 $22,39 Source: North Carolina Department of Commerce, 2 County and Regional Scans and Regional Economic Information System Table 3-1 The per capita personal income of North Carolina was 92.6% of the national average in The regional per capita personal income was $21,82, which was lower than the statewide average and only 79.% of the national average. WNC s median household income increased faster than other regions in North Carolina during the period of 1989 and However, the actual income level in 1997 was $29,742, which was the second lowest among seven economic development regions and only 84.2% of the statewide average. Income disparities across the state still persist. In 1997, about 13% of persons in the region were below poverty level, giving WNC a moderate ranking compared to six other economic development regions. However, it was above the statewide average. Both business failure and new business rates were about the same as statewide averages. Historically, the largest sectors in this region were manufacturing and trade (both wholesale and retail-sectors). However, data show that services are currently the biggest sector in the region. Employment shares in manufacturing industry decreased from 38.1% in 197 to 21.4% in 2. The retail trade industry grew from 12.% to 17.8% over 3 years, while wholesale trade stayed constant at 2.7% over the same period of time. Services increased rapidly from 15.9% in 197 to 25.8% in 2. The farm population declined over these years and agricultural services increased. 3

32 Employment Shares by Industry in Western North Carolina Industry Farm 5.5% 5.8% 3.6% 2.8% Agricultural Services.4%.6% 1.% 1.3% Mining.3%.3%.2%.2% Construction 5.% 5.5% 6.4% 7.4% Manufacturing 38.1% 33.5% 27.5% 21.4% Transportation, Communications & Public Utility 3.1% 3.1% 3.4% 3.1% W holesale Trade 2.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% Retail Trade 12.% 13.8% 16.9% 17.8% Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 4.1% 4.9% 4.3% 4.5% Services 15.9% 16.3% 2.8% 25.8% Federal Civilian Government 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.% Federal Military Government 1.3%.8%.7%.5% State and Local Government 9.9% 11.9% 11.6% 11.5% Source: W oods and Poole Economics 2 Table 3-2 In 225, the projected employment share of the services sector is 31.3%. Figure 3-1 shows employment trends by industry from 197 to present and employment projection to 225. Several sectors are forecast to grow substantially, such as services and retail trade, while the manufacturing sector is expected to decline over this period. The other sectors are projected to stay stable. Refer to Appendix Table C-1 for details. Employment Projection in WNC until 225 Total Employment (Right Scale) and Others (Left Scale) 25 8 FARM EMPLOYMENT 7 AGRICULTURAL SERVICES, OTHER EMPLOYMENT 2 6 MINING EMPLOYMENT CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT In Thousands of Jobs MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS & PUBLIC UTILITY EMPLOYMENT WHOLESALE TRADE EMPLOYMENT RETAIL TRADE EMPLOYMENT FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE EMPLOYMENT SERVICES EMPLOYMENT FEDERAL CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT 1 FEDERAL MILITARY GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Figure

33 Employment The employment trend of WNC is quite similar to that of North Carolina in general. Figure 3-2 shows that the employment trends of both the region and the state since January 199 (seasonally adjusted). Total employment of the region increased 15.5% between 199 and 2, while the statewide average was 21.4%. Approximately 65, jobs were added during this period in the region. Total employment began to decline in 2. During the past three years, WNC has lost more than 25, jobs. Total employment started to rebound at the end of 23. However, the current employment is about 95% of the peak level in 2. Figure 3-2 also shows total employment projected until the end of 24. Economic growth is expected to continue through the year of 24. Total Employment, Seasonally Adjusted WNC (left scale) and North Carolina (right scale) 5, 48, 46, 44, 42, 4, 38, 4,2, 4,, 3,8, 3,6, 3,4, 3,2, 3,, May-91 May-92 May-93 May-94 May-95 May-96 May-97 May-98 May-99 May- May-1 May-2 May-3 May-4 WNC State of North Carolina Figure 3-2 Sometimes, unemployment rates alone might mislead us. Historically, the unemployment rate decreased between 1991 and 2. During the same period, total employment fluctuated significantly. In 21, total employment increased drastically while the unemployment rate also increased. Figure 3-3 shows unemployment rates of WNC and the state since 199. The unemployment rate started to decrease in 22 when total employment was still declining. The unemployment rate is not always a mirror image of total employment. The unemployment rate total employment generally move in opposite directions, but not always. 32

34 Unemployment Rates, Seasonally Adjusted Jan-9 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 State of North Carolina WNC Figure 3-3 The annual percent changes in total employment in WNC and the state were 6.5% and 6.6% respectively in 2. Then WNC experienced negative growth in employment during two consecutive years. WNC s employment has grown slowly. However, the growth rate was smaller than both nationwide and statewide averages. Figure 3-4 shows that the projected annual growth in employment in 24 is about 1% compared to.4% in 23. Annual Percent Changes in Employment United States North Carolina WNC Figure 3-4 As discussed briefly in the previous section, the industrial structure of WNC has changed. Table 3-3 shows detailed historical trends in employment by sector over the past 3 years. Total employment over a 1-year period has declined since 197 from 3.1% to 21.9%. The negative farm employment changes had significant effects on total employment. Between 198 and 199, 33

35 farm employment declined 23.8%, followed by a decline of 5.7% from 199 to 2. Non-farm employment did not fully absorb the change in the farm sector. Trends in Employment by Sector in Western North Carolina Total full-time and part-time employment 286, ,83 458, ,51 3.1% 22.9% 21.9% Wage and salary employment 242,97 35, , , % 22.4% 18.6% Proprietors employment 43,732 67,65 83, , % 25.1% 36.6% Farm proprietors employment 9,936 17,139 13,456 12, % -21.5% -6.8% Nonfarm proprietors employment 33,796 49,926 7,435 12, % 41.1% 44.9% Farm employment 15,872 21,438 16,336 15, % -23.8% -5.7% Nonfarm employment 27, , ,94 543, % 25.8% 22.9% Private employment 233, ,915 38,136 47, % 27.2% 23.8% Ag. services, forestry, fishing, & other 1,39 2,14 4,623 4, % 129.5% -2.6% Mining % 13.1% -29.6% Construction 14,345 2,464 28,888 43, % 41.2% 51.2% Manufacturing 19, , ,97 19, %.9% -13.4% Transportation and public utilities 8,843 11,572 15,537 17,3 3.9% 34.3% 9.4% Wholesale trade 7,67 8,376 11,265 15, % 34.5% 36.1% Retail trade 34,478 51,362 77,57 97,81 49.% 5.9% 26.2% Finance, insurance, and real estate 11,77 18,249 19,497 24, % 6.8% 28.% Services 45,643 6,728 95,242 15, % 56.8% 58.3% Government and government enterprises 36,789 52,477 61,84 72, % 17.8% 17.2% Federal, civilian 4,89 5,321 5,463 5, % 2.7% 4.7% Military 3,636 2,819 3,26 2, % 15.6% -14.% State and local 28,263 44,337 53,81 63, % 19.7% 2.4% State government - 15,781 18,91 18, % 1.4% Local government - 28,556 34,99 4, % 15.7% Source: Regional Economic Information System Table 3-3 In the private sector, agriculture, mining, and manufacturing lost a significant number of jobs. The mining industry lost about one-third of its jobs during the past ten years. Most new job creation occurred in the service and construction sectors. Both sectors experienced 5% increases in new jobs during this period of time. Location Quotient Analysis In light of the overall positive expectation about the economic growth for the state and the nation, the impact on each county or industry may vary. In North Carolina, for example, some traditional manufacturing industries such as apparel, furniture, textile, and tobacco have been shrinking over the years. It is very important to identify the regional characteristics of the industrial structure compared to the state economy because it provides an indication of the likely contribution of each industry to the overall economy. 34

36 Location quotients (LQ) indicate the employment density of economy by industry based on overall state economy. In other words, it is one way to measure industry s labor concentration in a specific region relative to the rest of the state. It can be simply estimated by taking an industry s share of regional employment and dividing it by the industry s share of state employment. If the location quotient of an industry is 1, then the industry s share of regional employment is the same as the industry s share of employment in the state. For example, in Table 3-3, the employment shares of personal services locally and in the state are 1.75% and 1.74% respectively, which gives a location quotient of 1.1. If the location quotient of an industry is greater than 1, it means that the industry employs a bigger share of the workforce locally than on a state basis. It is more likely that the region is a net exporter in an industry if the location quotient is greater than 1 because the region produces more goods or services than would be consumed locally. The rule of thumb to understand the statistical confidence interval is ±.15. This means that a location quotient between.85 and 1.15 is likely to be considered 1, which does not indicate that there is a significant difference between regional and statewide employment shares. In the WNC region, the top five employment-share industries are furniture (LQ=2.5), mining (LQ=2.42), pulp and paper (LQ=1.86), hotels and lodging (LQ=1.86), and rubber and leather products (LQ=1.63). Four of the declining manufacturing industries in North Carolina mentioned in Table 3-3 have LQ s of greater than 1. They are apparel (LQ=1.31), textiles (LQ=1.2), and furniture (LQ=2.5). As Table 3-3 suggestions, the tobacco manufacturing industry is non-existent in WNC, which means that the economic impact of downsizing in these three industries is more likely bigger in WNC than in the entire state of North Carolina. In the service industry, WNC shows relatively big employment shares in tourism and health services. Location quotients are 1.86 for hotels and lodging, 1.57 for recreation services, and

37 for health services. However, for business services (LQ=.57), professional services (LQ=.59), finance and insurance (LQ=.62), WNC employs a lower percent of the workforce than state average employment percentages. Location Quotients and Employment Multipliers Industry WNC North Carolina Location Employment Number Percent Number Percent Quotient Multiplier Farms 15, % 84, % Forestry and Fishing % 7,429.15% Ag Services 4,397.79% 44,627.9% Mining 1,15.2% 4,62.8% Construction 49, % 387,6 7.8% Food processing 5,68.91% 54,3 1.9% Tobacco mfg.% 14,327.29%.. Textiles 19, % 143,94 2.9% Apparel 5,51.98% 37,432.75% Wood products 7, % 45,424.91% Furniture 22, % 79, % Pulp and paper 4,974.89% 23,691.48% Printing and publishing 3,96.55% 36,65.74% Chemicals and Petroleum Products 4,213.75% 49,732 1.% Rubber and Leather Products 8, % 44,11.89% Stone, glass and clay 2,579.46% 22,579.45% Metal Products 3,739.67% 57, % Industrial machinery 8, % 7, % Electrical equipment 1,65 1.9% 6, % Transportation equipment 4,314.77% 37,384.75% Scientific instruments 1,999.36% 15,785.32% Miscellaneous mfg % 1,796.22% TCPU 16, % 198, % Wholesale Trade 15, % 217, % Retail Trade 96, % 87, % Finance and Insurance 13, % 21, % Real estate 11, % 97, % Hotels and Lodging Places 9, % 44,28.89% Personal services 9, % 86, % Business services 21, % 342, % Automotive services 4,941.88% 47,367.95% Repair services 2,756.49% 22,92.46% Motion Pictures 1,112.2% 11,97.24% Recreation services 13, % 74, % Health services 43, % 293, % Legal Services 2,84.5% 31,8.62% Education services 6,18 1.9% 65, % Social services 11, % 83, % Non-profit organizations 11, % 78, % Professional services 9, % 143, % State & local non-ed government 2, % 251,17 5.5% Federal non-military 7, % 85, % Federal Government - Military 2,821.5% 116, % State & Local Government - Educatio 4, % 36, % Domestic Services 3,43.61% 29,438.59% Total 559,49 1.% 4,968,299 1.% 1. Source: Authors' computation using IMPLAN Data 2 Table

38 Economic Multiplier Analysis New job creation in one industry normally has a secondary impact on other industries. For instance, tourist spending at a restaurant stimulates the related suppliers to provide materials to make more foods. These effects can be captured by economic impact analysis using multipliers. This secondary impact of the same dollar spending varies from industry to industry. In general, manufacturing industries show largest secondary impacts than service industries. Regarding economic development issues, it is very important to understand the difference in multiplier effects by industry. An economic impact analysis normally differentiates three effects, the direct, indirect, and induced effects. The direct effect is the original impact of new spending on the first tier of suppliers. For example, $2 spent by a visitor at a local restaurant counts as a direct effect of $2. In order to produce the $2 meal, the local restaurant has to purchase some inputs from the second tier suppliers. Suppose that the restaurant purchases $7 worth of agricultural products from a wholesale trader (the second tier supplier). The wholesale trader also buys a $4 value of products from local farmers (the third tier supplier). To the extent that these transactions occur locally, these purchases represent additional local spending, which are called indirect effects. In this example, the indirect effects would be $11. The induced effect, the third factor, also can occur because of the income paid by employers involved both directly and indirectly in producing the meal. The part of the income will be spent locally by households that received wage income associated with this meal production. Suppose they spend $6 in the local groceries and department stores. The total effects-- sum of direct ($2), indirect ($11), and induced ($6) effects--will be $37. In this case, the multiplier will be This means that every dollar spent on a certain industry eventually has a total impact of $1.85 on the local economy. The multiplier effect also can be estimated in the number of jobs created by an external shock or extra spending, such as new company or visitor spending. Table 3-2 shows employment multipliers by industry. Note that induced effects are not included in the estimation because no 37

39 transactions actually occur. As a result, the total effects will change significantly when we consider real impacts. However, it still can provide the baseline information on the magnitude of indirect effects of each industry. As shown in Table 3-4, the food processing industry has the biggest indirect effects on the economy (whose employment multiplier--direct + indirect-- is 2.332), followed by scientific instruments (1.895), and the pulp and paper industry (1.811). The employment multipliers are large for the three major industries in the region mentioned above: for textile, for apparel, and for furniture. Likewise, these industries will have bigger negative impact when they are declining. Most service industries show relatively low employment multipliers around Tourism Data are very rare in the tourism sector. The North Carolina Division of Tourism, Film and Sports Development in the Department of Commerce started to collect and release tourism-related statistics for the seven economic development regions in September 21. Given this short time span, no statistical analysis is available. However, year-to-year changes of several variables show what happened for the past couple of years (Table 3-5). Not surprisingly, the number of travelers by airline decreased in 23 compared to 22. Both airplane deplanements and enplanements in the Asheville Regional Airport dropped 43.6% and 6.% in July 23 compared to a year ago. The monthly hotel/motel occupancy rates also show negative annual growth throughout the year, but the number of welcome center visitors increased in 23. These data reflect changes in transportation preference from flying to driving following the 21 terrorist attacks. There is no significant evidence to show that the number of visitors increased in 23. Airplane travelers did increase in October 23--the only month to show positive growth. It is still not clear whether this recent growth is a sign of a permanent change, or merely a short-term gain. Appendix Table 3 shows detailed information on regional tourism. 38

40 Tourism in Western North Carolina: -to- Changes Date Airport Deplanements Airport Enplanements Revenue Per Hotel/Motel Avg Daily Available Occupancy Room Rate Room Welcome Centers State Parks Sep % -1.2% 3.9% 2.8% -27.3% -5.9% Oct-2.3% 1.% -5.2% 3.5% -1.9% -15.6% -15.2% Nov % -7.8% 4.6% -3.5% -13.8% -16.7% Dec-2 1.7% -.4% -.9% -2.7% -3.6% -1.5% -38.4% Jan % -1.1% 8.3% 7.3% -4.% -36.% Feb % -2.4% -7.6% -9.8% -7.% -35.9% Mar % -6.1% -.5% -6.7% -.2% -22.5% Apr % -23.4% -6.7% -.4% -7.2%.7% -31.2% May-3-2.2% -18.5% -.7%.7%.% 6.6% -31.5% Jun % -8.9% -1.1% -.2% -1.3% 3.9% -12.8% Jul % -6.% -4.3% -17.1% -2.7% % Aug-3-5.9% -6.4% -3.9%.1% -3.7% 14.2% 7.2% Sep-3-2.6% -.2% -1.8% -1.6% -3.3% 46.6% 15.7% Oct-3 7.9% 4.6% 4.9% 2.7% 7.7% 27.3% 39.2% Source: Each Month of the NC Travel Tracker, North Carolina Department of Commerce Table 3-5 WNC County Performance The region-wide analysis cannot fully reflect the characteristics of individual counties, even though it provides overall economic performance of the region. Several major economic indicators for counties will be evaluated in this section, such as employment, income, earnings, and so on. Note that counties vary in population. For example, the population of Buncombe County (the largest) is about 26 times bigger than that of Graham County 4 (the smallest). We focus on the percent change, instead of the actual size, in the county comparisons presented in this section. The magnitude of contribution to the region would be different, however, based on the scale of each county. In the decade between 199 and 2, population increased faster than the statewide average in six counties: Cherokee, Clay, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, and Polk. During the same period, population growth rates of Buncombe, Burke, and McDowell were larger than the regional average, but still lower than the statewide average. These six southern counties share a state border with Georgia and South Carolina. On the other hand, most Tennessee-border-shared counties 4 Clay County had the smallest county in population until the 2 Census. 39

41 demonstrated below-average change. For instance, Mitchell County showed only 8.7% population growth for the past 1 years, the lowest in the region. Between 198 and 199, a couple of counties showed negative population growth-ashe (-.7%) and Graham (-.3%). Four counties experienced growth rates of less than 1 percent. They were Alleghany (.2%), Haywood (.9%), Madison (.8%), and Mitchell counties (.3%). Only three counties experienced changes above the statewide average during that period. The regional growth rate was only 6.6%. Most counties showed one-digit increase in 1 years. Overall, Henderson County had the highest population growth over the past 3 years followed by Macon County and Polk County. As many people have observed, inflows of retirees continue to increase in Henderson County. Total employment increased in Graham County faster than any other county from both (89.4%) and (5.2%). Four other counties experienced more than 4% growth in total employment during 199 and 2; Jackson (47.8%), Avery (42.4%), Macon (42.2%), and Clay (42.1%). Overall, 1 out of 23 counties increased in employment higher than the statewide average. However, both Rutherford County and Swain County experienced less than 1% growth. The percent of farm employment in North Carolina was 1.7% in 2 while that of WNC was 2.8%. Farm employment growth rates were -11.1% and -5.7% for North Carolina and region respectively. However, farm employment is still relatively large and important in some WNC counties, such as Madison (13.5%), Ashe (11.8%), Alleghany (11.6%), and Yancey (9.6%). In particular, farm employment increased 76.4% between 199 and 2 in Avery County, which also showed 4.4% growth in non-farm employment. There is no significant trend in the relationship between farm and non-farm employment changes. Focusing on non-farm employment, Graham County still showed the fastest growth rate in the region. Changes in employment by industry vary across counties. Construction is currently growing in WNC. In fact, construction growth rates are bigger than the statewide average in more than twothirds of the counties. In particular, Madison, Graham, and Clay experienced 182.9%, 154.8%, and 4

42 9.2% increases between 199 and 2 respectively. Cherokee County also grew 87.7%. On the other hand, Henderson County grew only 19.3% during the same period. Avery County s growth rates almost doubled every ten years. As mentioned earlier, the manufacturing industry has declined significantly in the region as well as in North Carolina. Most counties show negative or close-to-zero growth in manufacturing. Considering population growth rates, Alleghany County and Madison County show small positive growth. Overall, the region showed -13.4% growth in manufacturing between 199 and 2. On the other hand, many counties grew in the service industry faster than the statewide average. Graham County increased 133.8% for the past 1 years, followed by Jackson County (124.8%), and Cherokee County (17.2%). Yancey County also increased 97.8% in services. The average growth in the region (58.3%) is still slightly lower than the statewide average (61.5%). The average annual earning per job in the state was $32,31 in 2. None of WNC s counties reached the statewide average. Henderson County showed the highest average earning per job in WNC, which was $29,615. However, it was still 92.5% of the statewide average. Clay County s average earning per job was the lowest in the region. It was $19,93, which was only 62.2% of the statewide average. Historically, Haywood and Buncombe Counties were the highest average earning counties in the region in 197s. However, they grew more slowly than other counties since 198. In particular, Haywood County experienced the lowest growth rate (25.9%) during 199 and 2, while the statewide average was 46.6% during the same period. Henderson County became the highest-paying county in the average earning per job, followed by Transylvania County. Buncombe County was the third in 2. What is the wealthiest county in the region? Polk County ranks at the top with $3,189 per capita personal income in 2. Only Polk and Buncombe are above the statewide average. Income disparities across the region persist. Personal income per capita of Polk County is about 77% higher 41

43 than that of Swain County, which has the lowest per capital income in the region. The income gap between the two counties was about 7% in the 197s. When local economic developers are interested in attracting new businesses into a specific county for the well-being of local residents, commuting patterns should be considered seriously. Depending on the structure of the economy, most new jobs are filled by in-commuters who live outside the county. Identifying the characteristics of the unemployed might be a key issue to increase local employment. The number of net commuters indicates the difference between persons working in a certain county but living outside (in-commuters) and persons living in the county but working in other counties (out-commuters). Five counties show positive net commuters; Avery, Buncombe, Jackson, Swain, and Watauga. The commuting ratio also provides additional information to identify commuting patterns where it can be estimated as the ratio of persons working in the county (in-commuters) to employed residents of the county (out-commuters). By definition, the above five counties have ratios which are greater than 1. Swain County shows the highest commuting ratio (1.12) with 36.1% incommuting and 28.5% out-commuting. In other words, 36.1% of local jobs are filled by nonresident workers while 28.5% of residents commute to work in another county. While most counties show normal commuting patterns in the region, commuting ratios are low for three counties; Clay (.68), Madison (.68), and Polk (.678). In Madison County, for example, 54.2% of residents have jobs outside of the county while only 24.7% of local jobs are filled by in-commuters. Historical changes in trends for each county are very minimal even though some counties show changes from positive to negative in commuting ratios or vice versa. 42

44 Chapter 4: Conclusion This report presented the results of three major data collection efforts: a demographic analysis, a public opinion poll, and an economic analysis of WNC. We believe that this is the most comprehensive picture of the demographic, social, and economic state of WNC. We hope that in its entirety, this report gives the reader an empirically grounded, practical view of the region. Although each chapter stands alone, together this analysis has produced three key insights. First, WNC is changing. As Chapter 1 suggests, the region is demographically different than it was a few years ago. WNC has experienced a population boom over the past few decades. Although many groups are increasing, this population increase can be seen particularly in the recent influx of retirees and others from out of the region. Chapter 2 discusses how those who have lived in WNC for a smaller proportion of their lives think differently on a variety of social, economic and political issues. Chapter 3 discusses the rapidly changing economic base of the region. Manufacturing jobs are disappearing in WNC. Unfortunately, the forecast presented here does not suggest that the situation will improve in the near future. A key challenge for policymakers and activists in the region is to find ways to maintain the cultural heritage of the region while adapting to the changing environment in WNC. Second, although we have examined WNC as a whole, the region is surprisingly heterogeneous. Chapter 1 highlights the demographic differences across the region and demonstrates that, although the region may face certain problems, each county also has its own individual challenges and opportunities. Chapter 3 supports this notion by identifying a number of counties that experience very different economic situations. For instance, while employment increased by 5% in Graham County from 199-2, Rutherford County and Swain County experienced less than 1% growth. Those interested in WNC must consider each individual county, in addition to the region as a whole. 43

45 Third, we believe this report highlights the value of empirical analysis. For years, residents and policymakers in WNC have been forced to rely on anecdotal evidence to determine what residents of WNC think. Likewise, there has been no single source of information for demographic and economic information about the region. By providing a systematic, empirically grounded basis for analysis, we have reinforced some conventional wisdom, and shattered some myths about WNC. We intend to repeat this analysis each year, highlighting ways in which the region is changing and ways in which it is not. This enterprise cannot succeed as a purely intellectual one, however. To provide a report that is useful to policymakers, academics, activists, and residents of WNC, we need to engage in an ongoing dialogue about the kinds of information and data that are available to those who read this report. 44

46 Appendix A: Additional Figures from Chapter 1 Clay Age Age yrs. & under years 3-39 years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years 65 yrs. & over Figure 1-6 Henderson Age yrs. & under years 3-39 years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years 65 yrs. & over Figure 1-7 Macon Age yrs. & under years 3-39 years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years 65 yrs. & over Figure1-8 45

47 Polk Age yrs. & under years 3-39 years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years 65 yrs. & over Figure 1-9 Transylvania Age yrs. & under years 3-39 years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years 65 yrs. & over Figure

48 Ashe Age yrs. & under years 3-39 years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years 65 yrs. & over Figure 1-11 Caldwell Age yrs. & under years 3-39 years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years 65 yrs. & over Figure 1-12 Graham Age yrs. & under years 3-39 years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years 65 yrs. & over Figure

49 Haywood Age yrs. & under years 3-39 years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years 65 yrs. & over Figure 1-14 Mitchell Age yrs. & under years years 4-49 years 5-59 years years 5 65 yrs. & over Figure 1-15 Rutherford Age yrs. & under years 3-39 years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years 65 yrs. & over Figure

50 Transylvania Age 7 17 yrs. & under years years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years yrs. & over Figure 1-17 Wilkes Age yrs. & under years 3-39 years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years 65 yrs. & over Figure 1-18 Yancey Age Figure yrs. & under years 3-39 years 4-49 years 5-59 years 6-64 years 65 yrs. & over 49

51 Racial Minorities Allegheny Racial Minorities Black Asian/PI Native American Hispanic Other Figure 1-2 Ashe Racial Minorities Black Asian/PI Native American Hispanic Other Figure 1-21 Clay Racial Minorities Black Asian/PI Native American Hispanic Other Figure

52 Haywood Racial Minorities Black Asian/PI Native American Hispanic Other Figure 1-23 Henderson Racial Minorities Black Asian/PI Native American Hispanic Other Figure 1-24 Macon Racial Minorities Black Asian/PI Native American Hispanic Other Figure

53 Madison Racial Minorities Black Asian/PI Native American Hispanic Other Figure 1-26 Mitchell Racial Minorities Black Asian/PI Native American Hispanic Other Figure 1-27 Yancey Racial Minorities Black Asian/PI Native American Hispanic Other Figure

54 Burke Racial Minorities Black Asian/PI Native American Hispanic Other Figure

55 Educational Attainment 5 Allegheny Educational Attainment Figure 1-3 Ashe Educational Attainment 8th Grade or less Some High School H.S. Graduate Some College 4 s College - College Graduate Graduate Degree - 5+ s College Figure th Grade or less Some High School H.S. Graduate Some College 4 s College - College Graduate Graduate Degree - 5+ s College 5 Education data represents population aged 25 and older. 4 s College College Graduate category: 198 data represents population with 4 years college 199 and 2 data represents population with bachelors degree Graduate Degree 5+ s College category: 198 data represents population with 5+ years college 199 data represents population with Master s, Doctorate or Professional degree 2 data represents population with Graduate or professional degree 54

56 Avery Educational Attainment Figure 1-32 Burke Educational Attainment 8th Grade or less Some High School H.S. Graduate Some College 4 s College - College Graduate Graduate Degree - 5+ s College Figure th Grade or less Some High School H.S. Graduate Some College 4 s College - College Graduate Graduate Degree - 5+ s College 55

57 Gender Burke Gender Male Female Figure 1-34 McDowell Gender Male Female Figure 1-35 Watauga Gender Male Female Figure

58 Avery Gender Male Female Figure 1-37 Swain Gender Male Female Figure

59 Marital Status 6 Avery Marital Status Married Wid/Div/Sep Never Married Figure 1-39 Ashe Marital Status Married Wid/Div/Sep Never Married Figure Represents population aged 15 and older. 58

60 Appendix B: Details on Survey Data Collection and Characteristics of the Sample The data were collected over a two-week period in November 23 via phone calls conducted weekdays from 4:-9:pm and 1:am-5:pm on Saturday. The sample consisted of roughly 3,8 phone numbers that were selected using random digit dialing. Of these numbers, 515 were ineligible (i.e., non-working or disconnected number), 522 were no answers, and 993 were refusals. In the end, 668 respondents were surveyed. We are 95% confident that our results are accurate within 1.3%. Roughly 63% of the respondents in our survey were female, a common outcome with telephone surveys of the general public. Respondent ages ranged from 18 to 85 years, with 48 years being the average respondent age. More than half of the sample (56%) were married, 8% were widowed, 11% were divorced, 3% were separated, and 16% were never married. Educational attainment was slightly higher than that in the population; roughly 26% of the sample had a high school degree or equivalent, 28% had some college or trade school experience, 25% were college graduates, and 13% had a graduate degree. The majority of the sample was white. 59

61 Appendix C: Additional Figures from Chapter 3 Top 25 Leading Employers in Western North Carolina Company County Product/Service Employment Memorial Mission Hospital, Inc. Buncombe Health Care 5,+ Harrah's Cherokee Casino Swain Casino 2,+ Mastercraft Fabrics, LLC Rutherford Textiles 2,+ Drexel Heritage Furnishings multiple locations Furniture 2,+ Broyhill Furniture Industries m ultiple locations W ood Products 2,+ Appalachian State University W atauga University 2,+ Pardee Hospital Henderson Health Care 1,+ Continental Teves multiple locations Transportation 1,+ Cone M ills m ultiple locations Textiles 1,+ Blue Ridge Paper Products Inc. Haywood Paper 1,+ Coats Am erica m ultiple locations Textiles 1,+ Leviton Southern Devices multiple locations Electrical 1,+ Baxter Healthcare Corp. McDowell Chemicals 1,+ H enredon Furniture Industries m ultiple locations Furniture 1,+ General Electric Co. Henderson Electrical 1,+ Sonopress, LLC Buncombe Electrical 1,+ Tyson Foods Inc. Wilkes Food 1,+ Ingles Markets, Inc. Buncombe Groceries 1,+ Merchants Distributors, Inc. Caldwell Groceries 1,+ Lowes Com panies, Inc W ilkes Building Supply 1,+ Grove Park Inn & Country Club Buncombe Recreation 1,+ The Biltmore Company Buncombe Recreation 1,+ W estern Carolina University Jackson University 1,+ Buncombe County Schools Buncombe K-12 Education 1,+ Henderson County Schools Henderson K-12 Education 1,+ Source: AdvantageWest Table 3-6 Employment Projection by Industry in Western North Carolina (In thousands of jobs) Farm Agricultural Services Mining Construction Manufacturing TCPU Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Services Federal Civilian Government Federal Military Government State and Local Government Total Employment Source: Woods and Poole Economics 2 Table 3-7 6

62 Detailed Tourism Industry in Western North Carolina Date Airport Deplanements Airport Enplanements Hotel/Motel Occupancy Avg Daily Room Rate Revenue Per Available Room Welcome Centers Regional Visitor Centers State Parks Sep , , ,933 - Oct-1 22,43-21, , ,339 - Nov , , ,39 - Dec-1 16,99-17, , ,423 - Jan , , ,123 - Feb , , ,63 - Mar , , ,93 - Apr-2 2,3-19, , ,862 - May-2 22,631-22, , ,246 - Jun-2 25,127-23, , ,11 - Jul-2 24,938-25, ,258-29, ,95 - Aug-2 22,841-23, ,94-19, ,566 - Sep-2 18,91-19, % % % % 154, % 14,97-165, % Oct-2 22,13.3% 22,27 1.% % % % 225, % 23,944-22, % Nov-2 15,78-18, % % % % 162, % 11,99-17, % Dec-2 17,21 1.7% 17, % % % % 139, % 9,356-5, % Jan-3 11,523-11, % % % % 99,894-4.% 6,526-43,62-36.% Feb-3 12,93-11, % % % % 15,521-7.% 4,951-41, % Mar-3 14,4-14, % % % % 15, % 8,31-75, % Apr-3 15, % 15, % % % % 173,66.7% 11,644-94, % May-3 18,56-2.2% 17, % % % 4.3.% 25, % 13, , % Jun-3 21, % 21, % % % % 221, % 2,81-221, % Jul-3 14, % 1,33-6.% % % % - 28,85 -.9% 259, % Aug-3 21, % 22, % % % % 22, % 53, % 239,71 7.2% Sep-3 18, % 19, % % % % 227, % 49, % 191, % Oct-3 23, % 23,51 4.6% % % % 286, % 5,33 19.% 281, % Source: Each Month of the NC Travel Tracker, North Carolina Department of Commerce Table 3-8 Net Commuters and Commuting Ratios in Western North Carolina FIPS County Name Net Commuting Commuters Ratio Net Commuters Commuting Ratio Net Commuting Commuters Ratio Percent of Incommuters Percent of Out- Commuters 375 Alleghany County % 22.5% 379 Ashe County -1, , , % 25.2% 3711 Avery County % 29.% 3721 Buncombe County 3, , , % 1.6% 3723 Burke County -2, , , % 31.% 3727 Caldwell County -3, , , % 3.9% 3739 Cherokee County % 18.7% 3743 Clay County , , % 48.4% 3775 Graham County % 24.4% 3787 Haywood County -1, , , % 27.2% 3789 Henderson County -1, , , % 25.9% 3799 Jackson County , % 25.7% McDowell County 1, , % 25.3% Macon County % 16.9% Madison County -1, , , % 54.2% Mitchell County % 3.5% Polk County -1, , , % 49.7% Rutherford County -1, , , % 21.2% Swain County % 28.5% Transylvania County % 21.6% Watauga County , % 13.8% Wilkes County -2,4.92-3, , % 21.8% Yancey County -1, , , % 34.5% 37 North Carolina 2, , , Source: North Carolina State Data Center Table

63 Seven Economic Development Regions in North Carolina Figure Westernmost Counties of North Carolina Figure