FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 30, 2010 INTERVIEWS AND QUESTIONS: DAVID FLAHERTY

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F IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 30, INTERVIEWS AND QUESTIONS: DAVID FLAHERTY 303--55 CHRIS DUDLEY AND JOHN KITZHABER IN DEAD HEAT, % TO % CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC BALLOT : 3% OCRAT, 35% UBLICAN OBAMA JOB OVAL:

1 F IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 30, INTERVIEWS AND QUESTIONS: DAVID FLAHERTY CHRIS DUDLEY AND JOHN KITZHABER IN DEAD HEAT, % TO % CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC BALLOT : 3% OCRAT, 35% UBLICAN OBAMA JOB OVAL: %, % OBAMA ADMINISTRATION HANDLING OF OIL SPILL: %, % Louisville, CO The election for Oregon Governor is currently a statistical dead heat with % of likely voters supporting businessman Chris Dudley, % supporting former Governor John Kitzhaber, % support another candidate, and % are undecided. The ballot test numbers are based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 3 likely Oregon voters fielded Monday, June th. Looking at ballot test results by voter subgroup, we find Republican Chris Dudley doing well among independent voters with % support compared to 2% for John Kitzhaber. While appealing to independent voters is a likely priority for both campaigns, it is a higher priority for the Dudley Campaign. We say this because of past statewide voting party demographics. In the 0 and 0 election cycles, Democrats averaged 5% of the total vote, followed by Republicans with 35%, and independents with %. For Chris Dudley to be in a position to win, he needs to appeal to a significant majority of independents. Any Democrat support for Chris Dudley, currently at 5%, will relieve the pressure to pick up independent voters. John Kitzhaber obviously does not need as many independent votes to get to 50%, but the larger the percentage of Democrat voters supporting Chris Dudley puts more pressure on the Kitzhaber Campaign to attract independent support. The table below shows the Governor ballot test by voter subgroup. A map of Oregon s Congressional Districts is included in this document. Oregon Governor Ballot Test All Dem Rep Ind Candidate Voters Men Wom Voters Voters Voters CD CD2 CD3 CD CD5 Dudley Margin Dudley % 5% 3% 5% 3% % 35% 50% % % 3% Kitzhaber % 3% % % % 2% % % 52% 3% 3% Other % % % % % % % % 5% % % Undecided % % % % % % % % % % %

2 Magellan ID# GOV-0 Oregon Governor General Election Survey Page 2 of 3 Field Date: //, 3N, MoE +/- 3.% Candidate Dudley Margin Dudley Favorable Dudley Unfavorable Kitzhaber Margin Kitzhaber Favorable Kitzhaber Unfavorable Candidate Image Ratings Both candidates are well known among all voters. Former Governor John Kitzhaber has name recognition of %, while businessman Chris Dudley has name recognition of 3%. John Kitzhaber has an image ratio of to, with 3% of voters having a favorable opinion of him and % having an unfavorable opinion. Chris Dudley has an image ratio of 2 to, with 2% of voters having a favorable opinion of him and 2% having an unfavorable opinion. John Kitzhaber s image rating is slightly upside down among men, 3% favorable/% unfavorable. Women have a more positive opinion of John Kitzhaber, with 3% favorable and 3% unfavorable. Chris Dudley has a stronger image among men than women, with % having a favorable opinion of him compared to 3% of women. Oregon Governor Candidate Image Ratings All Dem Voters Men Wom Voters Rep Voters Ind Voters CD CD2 CD3 CD CD % % 3% % 0% 2% 3% % 2% % % 2% 22% % 3% % % % 5% % % % % 3% 3% % % 3% % 3% 5% % % % % 3% % % 3% % 3% % 2% 3% Oregon Congressional Generic Ballot Test If the election for Congress was being held today, and all you know about the two candidates was that one was a Democrat, and the other was a Republican, for whom would you vote? Among all voters, 3% of respondents would vote for the Democrat candidate and 35% for the Republican candidate, a two point margin. Looking at responses by Congressional District, we find potentially competitive environments in the th and 5 th districts. The th district is represented by longtime Democrat incumbent Peter DeFazio and the 5 th is represented by freshman Kurt Schrader. Peter DeFazio is being challenged by college professor Art Robinson and Kurt Schrader is facing State Representative Scott Bruun. Candidate All Voters Men Wom Dem Voters Rep Voters Ind Voters CD CD2 CD3 CD CD5 Dem Margin Democrat 3% 3% 3% % % 2% 3% % % 35% % Republican 35% 35% 35% % % 30% 3% 2% 22% 3% 3% Undecided % % % 23% 23% % 23% % 30% % 3% Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300 Louisville, CO (303) -55

3 Magellan ID# GOV-0 Oregon Governor General Election Survey Page 3 of 3 Field Date: //, 3N, MoE +/- 3.% Barack Obama Job Approval Among all voters, % approve and % disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President. Looking at responses by gender, women approve of the job Barack Obama is doing more than men, % to % respectively. The President s approval ratings by party are Republican: % approve, 0% disapprove, Democrat: % approve % disapprove, and among independent voters, 3% approve, 50% disapprove. Obama Administration s Handling of Oil Spill Do you approve or disapprove of the Obama Administration s handling of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? Among all voters, % approve of the Obama Administration s handling of the oil spill and % disapprove. Among men, 5% disapprove and % approve, and among women, % approve and 3% disapprove. Survey Methodology This survey was conducted using automated telephone touch tone technology. The sample for this survey was randomly drawn from an Oregon voter file. The response data was weighted to reflect past general election voting demographics from the 0 and 0 election cycles. The 3 interviews were conducted on Monday night, June th from 5:30 to pm. This survey has a margin of error of 3.% at the 5 percent confidence interval. The survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document along with a map of the polling regions. This release, survey crosstabs and presentation can be downloaded from our website under the Survey Archives tab at Any questions regarding this survey should be directed to David Flaherty at or dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com. About Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies Magellan CEO David Flaherty has extensive experience applying political data and technology to political and public affairs campaigns throughout his year career at the Republican National Committee, the U.S. House of Representatives, and public affairs firms specializing in influencing public opinion. The Magellan team has extensive knowledge constructing and building voter registration databases, performing political data analysis, applying GIS mapping technology, conducting quantitative live and automated survey research, as well as predictive modeling projects, and redistricting technology. Visit our website at MagellanStrategies.com for more information. Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300 Louisville, CO (303) -55

4 µ Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies 5 Boxelder St., Suite 300 Louisville, CO 002 (303) Clatsop CD Columbia Tillamook Washington Hood River Multnomah Yamhill CD 3 Clackamas Wasco Sherman Gilliam Morrow Umatilla Wallowa Union Lincoln CD 5 Polk Benton Marion Wheeler Baker Jefferson Linn Grant Crook Lane Deschutes CD 2 CD Douglas Coos Malheur Harney Klamath Lake Curry Josephine Jackson Oregon Congressional Districts

5 June 30, MEMANDUM TO: FR: RE: INTERESTED PARTIES DAVID FLAHERTY MAGELLAN DATA AND MAPPING STRATEGIES EGON GRN GENERAL ELECTION SURVEY TOPLINE RESULTS Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a 3N autodial survey of likely general election voters in the state of Oregon. The interviews were conducted June th,. This survey has a margin of error of +/ 3.% at the 5 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon voter turnout demographics from the 0 and 0 election cycles. T. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter? Republican... 35% Democrat... 5% Independent... % T2. How likely are you to vote in the November election for Governor, the US Senate and Congress? Extremely Likely... % Very Likely... % Somewhat Likely... % T3. If the election for Congress was being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Democrat and the other was a Republican, for whom would you vote? Democrat candidate... 3% Republican candidate... 35% Undecided... %

6 Magellan ID# GOV 0 Oregon Governor General Election Survey Topline Results Page 2 of 3 Field Dates: // MoE +/ 3.%, 3N Thinking now about people active in government T. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Kitzhaber? Favorable... 3% Unfavorable... % No Opinion... % Name ID... % Hard Name ID... 3% Never Heard Of... % T5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Chris Dudley? Favorable... 2% Unfavorable... 2% No Opinion... 30% Name ID... 3% Hard Name ID... 3% Never Heard Of... % T. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? Approve... % Disapprove... % No Opinion... % T. If the election for Governor was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were John Kitzhaber, Democrat, Chris Dudley, Republican or another candidate? Chris Dudley... % John Kitzhaber... % Another Candidate... % Undecided... % T. Do you approve or disapprove of the Obama Administration s handling of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? Approve... % Disapprove... % No Opinion... % Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300 Louisville, CO (303) 55

7 Magellan ID# GOV 0 Oregon Governor General Election Survey Topline Results Page 3 of 3 Field Dates: // MoE +/ 3.%, 3N T. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman? Female... 55% Male... 5% T. Which of the following age groups applies to you? 3... % % % % +... % T. For statistical purposes only, what is your race? Are you white, Hispanic or Latino, black or African American, Asian, or another ethnic group? White... % Hispanic/Latino... % Black/African American... 3% Asian... 2% Another ethnic group... 2% Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300 Louisville, CO (303) 55

8 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table - T. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter? GEND AGE PARTY GENERIC BALLOT AL AL PLUS DE CIDE 23 UBLICAN OCRAT EPENDENT

9 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table -2 T. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter? AL AL 3 KITZHABER IMG RATING DUDLEY IMG RATING OBAMA JOB OVAL GOV BALLOT OIL SPILL HANDLING CD COTY E 3 E 55 2 KITZ HABR DUD LEY 3 CD0 CD02 2 CD03 5 CD0 23 CD05 CLAK AMAS MULT NOMA WASH NGTN UBLICAN OCRAT EPENDENT

10 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table 2- T2. How likely are you to vote in the November election for Governor, the US Senate and Congress? GEND AGE PARTY GENERIC BALLOT AL AL PLUS DE CIDE 23 EXTREMELY LIKELY VERY LIKELY SOMEWHAT LIKELY

11 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table 2-2 T2. How likely are you to vote in the November election for Governor, the US Senate and Congress? AL AL 3 KITZHABER IMG RATING DUDLEY IMG RATING OBAMA JOB OVAL GOV BALLOT OIL SPILL HANDLING CD COTY E 3 E 55 2 KITZ HABR DUD LEY 3 CD0 CD02 2 CD03 5 CD0 23 CD05 CLAK AMAS MULT NOMA WASH NGTN EXTREMELY LIKELY VERY LIKELY SOMEWHAT LIKELY

12 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table 3- T3. If the election for Congress was being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Democrat, and the other was a Republican, for whom would you vote? GEND AGE PARTY GENERIC BALLOT AL AL PLUS DE CIDE 23 OCRAT UBLICAN DECIDED

13 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table 3-2 T3. If the election for Congress was being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Democrat, and the other was a Republican, for whom would you vote? AL AL 3 KITZHABER IMG RATING DUDLEY IMG RATING OBAMA JOB OVAL GOV BALLOT OIL SPILL HANDLING CD COTY E 3 E 55 2 KITZ HABR DUD LEY 3 CD0 CD02 2 CD03 5 CD0 23 CD05 CLAK AMAS MULT NOMA WASH NGTN OCRAT UBLICAN DECIDED

14 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table - T. Thinking now about people active in government Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Kitzhaber? GEND AGE PARTY GENERIC BALLOT AL AL PLUS DE CIDE 23 ABLE ABLE NO OPINION NAME ID HARD NAME ID NEVER HEARD OF

15 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table -2 T. Thinking now about people active in government Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Kitzhaber? AL AL 3 KITZHABER IMG RATING DUDLEY IMG RATING OBAMA JOB OVAL GOV BALLOT OIL SPILL HANDLING CD COTY E 3 E 55 2 KITZ HABR DUD LEY 3 CD0 CD02 2 CD03 5 CD0 23 CD05 CLAK AMAS MULT NOMA WASH NGTN ABLE ABLE NO OPINION NAME ID HARD NAME ID NEVER HEARD OF

16 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table 5- T5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Chris Dudley? GEND AGE PARTY GENERIC BALLOT AL AL PLUS DE CIDE 23 ABLE ABLE NO OPINION NAME ID HARD NAME ID NEVER HEARD OF

17 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table 5-2 T5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Chris Dudley? AL AL 3 KITZHABER IMG RATING DUDLEY IMG RATING OBAMA JOB OVAL GOV BALLOT OIL SPILL HANDLING CD COTY E 3 E 55 2 KITZ HABR DUD LEY 3 CD0 CD02 2 CD03 5 CD0 23 CD05 CLAK AMAS MULT NOMA WASH NGTN ABLE ABLE NO OPINION NAME ID HARD NAME ID NEVER HEARD OF

18 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table - T. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? GEND AGE PARTY GENERIC BALLOT AL AL PLUS DE CIDE NO OPINION

19 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table -2 T. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? AL AL 3 KITZHABER IMG RATING DUDLEY IMG RATING OBAMA JOB OVAL GOV BALLOT OIL SPILL HANDLING CD COTY E 3 E 55 2 KITZ HABR DUD LEY 3 CD0 CD02 2 CD03 5 CD0 23 CD05 CLAK AMAS MULT NOMA WASH NGTN NO OPINION

20 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table - T. If the election for Governor was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were John Kitzhaber, Democrat, Chris Dudley, Republican or another candidate? GEND AGE PARTY GENERIC BALLOT AL AL PLUS DE CIDE 23 CHRIS DUDLEY JOHN KITZHABER ANOTHER IDATE DECIDED

21 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table -2 T. If the election for Governor was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were John Kitzhaber, Democrat, Chris Dudley, Republican or another candidate? AL AL 3 KITZHABER IMG RATING DUDLEY IMG RATING OBAMA JOB OVAL GOV BALLOT OIL SPILL HANDLING CD COTY E 3 E 55 2 KITZ HABR DUD LEY 3 CD0 CD02 2 CD03 5 CD0 23 CD05 CLAK AMAS MULT NOMA WASH NGTN CHRIS DUDLEY JOHN KITZHABER ANOTHER IDATE DECIDED

22 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table - T. Do you approve or disapprove of the Obama Administration s handling of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? GEND AGE PARTY GENERIC BALLOT AL AL PLUS DE CIDE NO OPINION

23 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table -2 T. Do you approve or disapprove of the Obama Administration s handling of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? AL AL 3 KITZHABER IMG RATING DUDLEY IMG RATING OBAMA JOB OVAL GOV BALLOT OIL SPILL HANDLING CD COTY E 3 E 55 2 KITZ HABR DUD LEY 3 CD0 CD02 2 CD03 5 CD0 23 CD05 CLAK AMAS MULT NOMA WASH NGTN NO OPINION

24 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table - T. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman? GEND AGE PARTY GENERIC BALLOT AL AL PLUS DE CIDE 23 MALE FEMALE

25 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table -2 T. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman? AL AL 3 KITZHABER IMG RATING DUDLEY IMG RATING OBAMA JOB OVAL GOV BALLOT OIL SPILL HANDLING CD COTY E 3 E 55 2 KITZ HABR DUD LEY 3 CD0 CD02 2 CD03 5 CD0 23 CD05 CLAK AMAS MULT NOMA WASH NGTN MALE FEMALE

26 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table - T. Which of the following age groups applies to you? GEND AGE PARTY GENERIC BALLOT AL AL PLUS DE CIDE PLUS

27 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table -2 T. Which of the following age groups applies to you? AL AL 3 KITZHABER IMG RATING DUDLEY IMG RATING OBAMA JOB OVAL GOV BALLOT OIL SPILL HANDLING CD COTY E 3 E 55 2 KITZ HABR DUD LEY 3 CD0 CD02 2 CD03 5 CD0 23 CD05 CLAK AMAS MULT NOMA WASH NGTN PLUS

28 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table - T. For statistical purposes only, what is your race? Are you white, Hispanic or Latino, black or African American, Asian, or another ethnic group? GEND AGE PARTY GENERIC BALLOT AL AL PLUS DE CIDE 23 WHITE HISPANIC LATINO BLACK AFRICAN AMERICAN ASIAN ANOTHER ETHNIC GROUP

29 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table -2 T. For statistical purposes only, what is your race? Are you white, Hispanic or Latino, black or African American, Asian, or another ethnic group? AL AL 3 KITZHABER IMG RATING DUDLEY IMG RATING OBAMA JOB OVAL GOV BALLOT OIL SPILL HANDLING CD COTY E 3 E 55 2 KITZ HABR DUD LEY 3 CD0 CD02 2 CD03 5 CD0 23 CD05 CLAK AMAS MULT NOMA WASH NGTN WHITE HISPANIC LATINO BLACK AFRICAN AMERICAN ASIAN ANOTHER ETHNIC GROUP

30 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table - CONGRESSIONAL TRICT GEND AGE PARTY GENERIC BALLOT AL AL PLUS DE CIDE 23 CD CD CD CD CD

31 Oregon Governor General Election Survey, June th,, 3N, 3.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, 5 Boxelder St. Ste 300, Louisville, CO 002, Table -2 CONGRESSIONAL TRICT AL AL 3 KITZHABER IMG RATING DUDLEY IMG RATING OBAMA JOB OVAL GOV BALLOT OIL SPILL HANDLING CD COTY E 3 E 55 2 KITZ HABR DUD LEY 3 CD0 CD02 2 CD03 5 CD0 23 CD05 CLAK AMAS MULT NOMA WASH NGTN CD CD CD CD CD

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