MASON-DIXON MARYLAND POLL FEBRUARY 2018

Transcription

1 MASON-DIXON MARYLAND POLL FEBRUARY GOVERNOR S RACE GENERAL ELECTION EMBARGO: Newspaper Publication - Friday, March 2, 2018 Broadcast & Internet Release - 6 am. Friday, March 2, 2018 Copyright 2018 Tracking public opinion in Maryland since 1983 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Feburary 2018 Maryland Poll 1

2 HOGAN MAINTAINS STRONG JOB RATING, VOTER RE-ELECTION SUPPORT HOVERS AT THE 50% MARK More than three out of five Maryland voters continue to give Republican Governor Larry Hogan their approval of his performance in office. Despite his popularity, Hogan s voter support in re-election match-ups against the three leading Democratic challengers still holds near the 50% line. The state s large Democratic voter registration advantage keeps his quest for a second term on a narrow path. Statewide, 63% approve Hogan s job performance, while only 26% disapprove and 11% are unsure. Respect for his handling of state government affairs is evident in that a majority of voters in every political party approve of his performance -- 85% of Republicans, 60% of Independents and 52% of Democrats. Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Feburary 2018 Maryland Poll 2

3 In general election match-ups against each of the leading Democratic candidates, Hogan holds a double-digit lead. However, Hogan s name recognition is over 30-points higher than any challenger and his personal favorability margin is more than 2-to-1. Yet even with these tangible advantages, his base voter support remains only near 50%. Statewide, Hogan is ahead of the current Democratic front-runner Rushern Baker by a 51%-36% margin. His leads are very similar in match-ups against the other two top tier Democratic challengers -- 50%-33% over Ben Jealous and 49%-34% over Kevin Kamenetz. While more than half of the state s Democratic voters approve of Hogan s job performance, only about one-in-three are currently inclined to re-elect him. As the Democratic primary race progresses and his potential general election opponents become more familiar to Democrats, it will be a challenge for Hogan to hold his current cross-over vote. Even a mere decline in support of 5-points among Democrats would make it mathematically challenging for Hogan to hold his support base above 50% in a one-on-one race. Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Feburary 2018 Maryland Poll 3

4 STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of? RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE Larry Hogan 58% 15% 25% 2% Rushern Baker 23% 14% 26% 37% Kevin Kamenetz 16% 11% 24% 49% Ben Jealous 15% 6% 25% 54% Richard Madaleno 7% 3% 13% 77% Krishanti Vignarajah 4% 1% 13% 82% Jim Shea 3% - 11% 86% Alec Ross 3% 1% 7% 89% Ralph Jaffe 2% 1% 5% 92% Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Feburary 2018 Maryland Poll 4

5 QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Larry Hogan's job performance as governor? APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE STATE 63% 26% 11% REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland 78% 16% 6% Baltimore County 68% 21% 11% Baltimore City 48% 44% 8% Central Maryland 70% 17% 13% Prince George's County 47% 36% 17% Montgomery County 54% 34% 12% Western Maryland 73% 20% 7% SEX APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Men 67% 24% 9% Women 60% 28% 12% AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE <50 58% 27% 15% % 25% 8% RACE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE White 68% 24% 8% Black 49% 33% 18% PARTY REGISTRATION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Democrat 52% 35% 13% Republican 85% 8% 7% Independent 60% 26% 14% Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Feburary 2018 Maryland Poll 5

6 QUESTION: If the 2018 general election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Rushern Baker, the Democrat, and Larry Hogan, the Republican? SEX PARTY REG RACE STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS WHITE BLACK HOGAN 51% 56% 46% 33% 85% 52% 65% 15% BAKER 36% 31% 41% 54% 5% 30% 23% 69% UNDECIDED 13% 13% 13% 12% 10% 18% 12% 16% QUESTION: If the 2018 general election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Kevin Kamenetz, the Democrat, and Larry Hogan, the Republican? SEX PARTY REG RACE STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS WHITE BLACK HOGAN 49% 54% 45% 30% 84% 52% 61% 19% KAMENETZ 34% 30% 38% 49% 9% 26% 25% 57% UNDECIDED 17% 16% 17% 21% 7% 22% 14% 24% QUESTION: If the 2018 general election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Ben Jealous, the Democrat, and Larry Hogan, the Republican? SEX PARTY REG RACE STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS WHITE BLACK HOGAN 50% 54% 47% 31% 88% 49% 64% 14% JEALOUS 33% 31% 34% 50% 5% 27% 21% 63% UNDECIDED 17% 15% 19% 19% 7% 24% 15% 23% Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Feburary 2018 Maryland Poll 6

7 HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Washington, DC from February 20 through February 22, A total of 625 registered Maryland voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All said they regularly vote in state elections. Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Maryland voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping. Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Feburary 2018 Maryland Poll 7

8 DEMOGRAPHICS PARTY REGISTRATION: Democrat 344 (55%) Republican 181 (29%) Independent or Other 100 (16%) AGE: (17%) (29%) (33%) (20%) Refused 4 (1%) RACE/ETHNICITY: White/Caucasian 415 (66%) Black/African American 164 (26%) Hispanic/Latino 25 (4%) Other 11 (2%) Refused 10 (2%) SEX: Male 295 (47%) Female 330 (53%) REGION: Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland 85 (14%) Baltimore County 90 (14%) Baltimore City 60 (10%) Central Maryland 125 (20%) Prince George's County 90 (14%) Montgomery County 105 (17%) Western Maryland 70 (11%) Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Feburary 2018 Maryland Poll 8