Louisiana Poll Results Romney 55%, Obama 34%, Third Party 4% (8% Undecided) Obama re-elect: 32-60% Healthcare reform support hurts 58-33%

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1 Louisiana Poll Results Romney 55%, Obama 34%, Third Party 4% (8% Undecided) Obama re-elect: 32-60% Healthcare reform support hurts 58-33% POLLING METHODOLOGY To ensure that polls we conduct for your campaign are the most accurate and relevant, it s important to first discuss the types of possible voter populations we use to conduct our polls: Registered Voters Randomly picking voters from the voter lists and calling them. While this is the least labor intensive, this is also, in our opinion, the least useful in the 2008 Presidential election, for example, 33% of registered voters in Louisiana did not vote. It doesn t make sense to include these voters in any poll sample! Likely Voters Using predetermined criteria to filter out unlikely voters. This criteria is subjective, but in general, those who have never voted or those who, in the pollster s judgment, are highly unlikely to vote, would not be included in a likely voter sample. Chronic Voters Using predetermined criteria to filter out unlikely and occasional voters. This criteria is even more subjective than the likely voter criteria, but in general, those who have not demonstrated a level of consistency in voting would not be included in a chronic voter sample. Our philosophy about which population to use depends on the election, but we are generally comfortable with a likely voter model (as opposed to a registered voter model) for most elections. For this poll, we chose a sample of minimally likely Louisiana households for an automated poll, and 683 responded to at least one of three poll questions. The survey was conducted August 18. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 3.8% The demographic breakdown of the respondents was 66-29% black, and the partisan breakdown (by voter registration) is 50-32% Democrat/Republican (the remaining 18% are Independent). The geographic breakdown of the respondents was by media market and was as follows: 5% from Alexandria, 20% from Baton Rouge, 14% from Lafayette, 6% from Lake Charles, 10% from Monroe, 33% from New Orleans, and 12% from Shreveport (The explanation of the boundaries of these regions is graphically depicted in Exhibit A at the end of the poll analysis). POLL RESULTS Question 1: If the Presidential election were held today, would you vote to re-elect President Barack Obama? LIKELY MIN. LIKELY Yes 32% 38% No 60% 54% Undecided 8% 8% Page 1 of 6

2 Question 2: If the Presidential election were held today, which candidate would you support? LIKELY MIN. LIKELY Barack Obama 34% 40% Mitt Romney 55% 49% Third Party Candidate 4% 3% Undecided 8% 8% Question 3: Would you be more or less likely to re-elect a Congressional incumbent who voted for healthcare reform or Obamacare? LIKELY MIN. LIKELY More Likely 33% 37% Less Likely 58% 54% No difference 9% 9% By Race Description White Black Other Yes 17% 88% 41% No 76% 5% 50% Undecided 7% 7% 9% By Party Registration Description Democrat Republican Other Yes 57% 7% 44% No 32% 90% 49% Undecided 10% 3% 7% By Voter Likelihood Description Unlikely Likely Chronic Yes 51% 28% 33% No 44% 65% 58% Undecided 5% 7% 9% CROSSTABS Question 1 Obama re-elect By Region (See Appendix A for Map) Baton Lake Rouge Lafayette Charles Monroe New Orleans Description Alexandria Shreveport Obama 2008 percentage 32% 42% 35% 34% 36% 43% 43% Yes 12% 43% 31% 22% 32% 46% 40% No 79% 53% 59% 69% 59% 45% 57% Undecided 9% 3% 10% 8% 10% 9% 2% Page 2 of 6

3 Comments: Obama s re-election is a polarizing issue. While blacks overwhelmingly support his re-election (with far fewer undecideds than is typical in most polls), whites are nearly as overwhelmingly against his re-election; While 88% support from blacks is impressive, it s also worth noting that Obama s support in the black community was close to 100% in the 2008 election. That drop in support is quantifiably about 3-4% of the statewide vote; There are also regional splits at play within the white community. Overall, white Democrats oppose his reelection 59-27%, white Independents are opposed 65-27%, and white Republicans are nearly unanimously opposed 92-5%. However, white Democrats in the Baton Rouge/New Orleans media markets only oppose his re-election 49-36% (in the rest of the state, white Democrats are 70-18% opposed). White Independents oppose President Obama s re-election 58-34% in Baton Rouge/New Orleans (that figure is 74-17% opposed in the rest of the state). And among Republicans, 90% in Baton Rouge/New Orleans oppose his reelection, while that figure is 95% outside of those two metropolitan areas; President Obama s re-election numbers closely match his 2008 percentages in most metropolitan areas; curiously, his numbers plunged in Alexandria and Lake Charles because his black support in those regions was less than 85%; We used a 2008 electorate in constructing our poll model. If there is lower Democratic intensity (as evidenced by Obama s 51-44% showing among occasional voters), Obama s re-elect numbers amongst likely and chronic voters is significantly less, at 32-60%. Incidentally, 37% of occasional voters are black, which is significantly higher than the 29% black portion of the electorate we used in our model; In other polls, Obama has been polling strongly among non-black minorities, like Asians and Hispanics. That was the case in this poll, where his re-elect numbers among these minority groups was 41-50% (significantly more favorable than Obama s numbers in the white community). By Race Description White Black Other Obama 18% 90% 45% Romney 69% 4% 42% Third Party 4% 2% 6% Undecided 10% 5% 6% Question 2 Ballot test By Party Registration Description Democrat Republican Other Obama 60% 6% 43% Romney 27% 85% 43% Third Party 3% 3% 4% Undecided 9% 6% 10% By Voter Likelihood Description Unlikely Likely Chronic Obama 52% 27% 36% Romney 37% 56% 54% Third Party 3% 4% 3% Undecided 9% 12% 6% Page 3 of 6

4 By Region (See Appendix A for Map) Lake Lafayette Charles Baton Rouge New Orleans Description Alexandria Monroe Shreveport Obama 2008 percentage 32% 42% 35% 34% 36% 43% 43% Obama 21% 42% 34% 26% 30% 49% 40% Romney 67% 46% 55% 59% 59% 39% 52% Third Party 3% 4% 2% 5% 3% 4% 1% Undecided 9% 8% 9% 10% 8% 8% 7% Comments: When you compare the ballot test to the re-elect question, Obama s numbers are slightly higher, and this bump is driven by increased support from blacks (2% increase) and non-white minorities (4% increase); Mitt Romney is polling at 49% because there are undecided votes, although 78% of this voter bloc are white; If you were to compare those who do not support President Obama s re-election against those supporting Romney, you will see the sources of undecided votes. With white Democrats, that gap (i.e., the difference between the percent for Romney and the percent opposing Obama s re-election) is 5%, while it is 4% with white Republicans and 11% with white Independents (15% among white Independents living in Baton Rouge/New Orleans); As mentioned before, we used a 2008 electorate in constructing our poll model. If there is lower Democratic intensity (as evidenced by Obama s 52-37% showing among occasional voters), the ballot test is less favorable to President Obama in that case, Romney s lead increases to 55-34%; By Race Description White Black Other More Likely 20% 74% 31% Less Likely 74% 10% 54% No Difference 5% 16% 15% By Party Registration Description Democrat Republican Other More Likely 54% 9% 40% Less Likely 34% 85% 55% No Difference 12% 6% 5% By Voter Likelihood Description Unlikely Likely Chronic More Likely 46% 28% 34% Less Likely 47% 60% 57% No Difference 8% 12% 9% Question 3 Healthcare reform Page 4 of 6

5 By Region (See Appendix A for Map) Description Alexandria Baton Rouge Lafayette Lake Charles Monroe New Orleans Shreveport More Likely 18% 37% 29% 22% 30% 46% 44% Less Likely 68% 56% 61% 62% 63% 45% 51% No Difference 15% 7% 10% 16% 7% 9% 5% Comments: In a previous poll taken in June 2011, we specifically asked if Senator Landrieu s vote for healthcare reform (also known as Obamacare ) would affect people s decision to support her re-election, and that poll showed by a 46-30% margin that people would be less likely to vote for her; Curiously, the point spread has remained about the same since that poll, as there is now a 54-37% negative verdict on an unnamed incumbent who supported healthcare reform; Healthcare reform is also a polarizing question by race and party affiliation, although blacks are not as unanimous on this question as they were on Obama s re-election; If you were to remove marginal voters (the unlikely voters in the crosstab) who are almost certainly not going to be participating in the midterm elections of 2014, the numbers are even more unfavorable against those supporting healthcare reform: support for such an incumbent plunges to 33-58% against. Page 5 of 6

6 Appendix A: Media Markets/Regions of Louisiana (SHR = Shreveport, MON = Monroe, ALX = Alexandria, LKC = Lake Charles, LAF = Lafayette, BR = Baton Rouge, NO = New Orleans) Page 6 of 6