Issue Two Voters in Ohio

Transcription

1 HART RESEARCH A S S O C I A T E S Issue Two Voters in Ohio Key findings from survey among 1015 voters, including early voters and Election Day voters Conducted for the AFL-CIO

2 Strong Vote On Issue 2 How did you vote on Issue 2? All Voters Description of Issue 2 provided: One of the measures on the ballot was Issue Two, which would place certain limits on government union contracts and collective bargaining for government employees. A "yes" vote on Issue Two would APPROVE a law placing limits on government union contracts and collective bargaining for government employees. A "no" vote on Issue Two would REJECT the law placing limits on government union contracts and collective bargaining for government employees. Early Voters 31% 69% Election Day Voters 41% 59% 2 Ohio Issue Two Voters vember 2011 Hart Research for AFL-CIO

3 Broad Opposition To Issue Two Union Status n-union members Union members Public employee in HH PE in household PE in household Race Whites Blacks Age 18 to to 59 60/over 48% 14% 43% 27% 42% 7% 34% 38% 42% 52% 86% 57% 73% 58% 93% 66% 62% 58% Ideology Liberals Moderates Conservatives Party ID Democrats Independents Republicans Lib/Mod GOPs Conserv GOPs 2010 Vote Kasich Strickland 8% 30% 64% 6% 43% 70% 58% 77% 74% 9% 92% 70% 36% 94% 57% 30% 42% 23% 26% 91% Education/Whites n-college grads College graduates 39% 46% 61% 54% 3 Ohio Issue Two Voters vember 2011 Hart Research for AFL-CIO

4 Voters: Issue Two t The Change Ohio For In 2010 Would you say Issue Two and Senate Bill Five was the change Ohio was voting for when it elected Governor Kasich and a Republican majority in the legislature? All Voters This is the change Ohio was voting for in 2010: Democrats Independents Republicans Cleveland Cincinnati/Dayton Columbus 6% 22% 45% 28% 20% 27% Issue Two is the change Ohio was voting for Ohio was voting for different kind of change 4 Ohio Issue Two Voters vember 2011 Hart Research for AFL-CIO

5 Ohio Voters Favor Collective Bargaining Rights for Public Employees Regardless of how you voted on Issue Two, should public employees who work for state or city government, or a school district be allowed to engage in collective bargaining over wages, benefits, and working conditions, such as staffing levels? All Voters 66% PE Hhld n-pe Hhld Definitely should 57% 27% Should be allowed Should not be allowed 73% 23% 64% 28% PE should be allowed collective bargaining Definitely should not 18% PE should not be allowed collective bargaining 5 Ohio Issue Two Voters vember 2011 Hart Research for AFL-CIO

6 Issue Two Expected To Have Negative Effects Expected Impact if Issue Two Approved Issue Two would have negative impact on this Issue Two would have positive impact on this Wages and benefits for workers Middle class All voters Voters: Negative Impact 80% 80% Public safety 80% Jobs and the economy Quality of public education 75% 74% 6 Ohio Issue Two Voters vember 2011 Hart Research for AFL-CIO

7 Kasich Coalition w Divided Kasich Voters by Vote on Issue Two Kasich as Governor: Approve Disapprove GOPs in OH Legislature: Approve Disapprove Issue Two/SB5: Was change Ohio was voting for in 2010 Support CB for public employees Partisan attack on unions 90% 4% 78% 10% 60% 23% 7% 28% 62% 49% 39% 12% 87% 65% 7 Ohio Issue Two Voters vember 2011 Hart Research for AFL-CIO

8 Perceptions Of Governor Kasich And Republicans In Legislature % saying each statement applies to the Governor & Republican leaders in Ohio Kasich Defectors Unfairly blamed public All voters employees for state s 69% fiscal problems Putting interests of big corporations ahead of 61% average working people Pursuing partisan political agenda instead of doing what s needed to improve 54% economy Look out for interests of people like me 30% Create jobs/strengthen Ohio economy Brought govt spending under control w/out harming education/svcs 21% 26% 8 Ohio Issue Two Voters vember 2011 Hart Research for AFL-CIO

9 Support For Issue Two Will Hurt GOP minee Mitt Romney and Rick Perry have said they strongly support Issue Two. How will this affect your support for Romney or Perry if he is the GOP nominee for president? Mitt Romney Less likely to support him for president More likely to support him for president Rick Perry Less likely More likely voters 10% 43% voters 73% 4% Less likely More likely voters 9% 40% voters 78% 4% 9 Ohio Issue Two Voters vember 2011 Hart Research for AFL-CIO

10 Ohio Voters To GOP: Drop The Issue And Move On If Ohio voters reject Issue Two, Governor Kasich and Republicans in the state legislature have said they might try to pass similar legislation again. If the voters reject Issue Two, I think Republicans should: 60% Feel strongly 55% 35% Feel strongly 30% If my senator/legislator votes to pass another law similar to Issue Two: I would be less likely to vote for him/her I would be more likely to vote for him/her 56% 32% Drop the issue and move on to other issues Try to pass similar legislation 10 Ohio Issue Two Voters vember 2011 Hart Research for AFL-CIO

11 HART RESEARCH A S S O C I A T E S Issue Two Voters in Ohio Key findings from survey among 1015 voters, including early voters and Election Day voters Conducted for the AFL-CIO