Democrats set to win Massachusetts, Connecticut Senate races

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1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 2, 2012 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Democrats set to win Massachusetts, Connecticut Senate races Raleigh, N.C. PPP's final polls in Massachusetts and Connecticut find that Democrats are likely to pick up the Senate seat in the former and hold onto the open seat in the latter. Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown in the Massachusetts contest, while Chris Murphy has a advantage over Linda McMahon in Connecticut. Scott Brown has a 52/36 approval rating. Usually Senators with those kinds of approval numbers are safe for reelection. But Warren needed to do 2 things in this campaign: solidify the Democratic vote behind her and reduce Brown's advantage with independents. She's succeeded on both of those fronts. 84% of Democrats are planning to vote for her, only slightly less than the 88% of Republicans Brown's winning. And Warren's deficit with independents is only 21 points at Our final poll of the 2010 Massachusetts Senate special election found Brown defeating Martha Coakley with them so Warren's really made up a fair amount of ground on that front. In Connecticut our final poll finds Chris Murphy with his largest lead all year at 9 points. He's increased his advantage by 5 points since two weeks ago when he was ahead just Linda McMahon, already unpopular, has just become more disliked by voters in the state over the last couple weeks. Only 37% have a favorable opinion of her to 52% with an unfavorable one. In August polling found the Democratic candidates trailing in both of these New England Senate races, said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. But Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy have closed strongly and appear to be in a safe position for victory, which will go a long way toward helping their party keep its majority. Barack Obama leads the Presidential race comfortably in both of these states, 57/42 in Massachusetts and 55/42 in Connecticut. But both of those leads are down considerably from his margin of victory in he's dropped 11 points from his 26 point win in Massachusetts and 10 points from his 23 point win in Connecticut. PPP surveyed 1,089 likely voters in Massachusetts and 1,220 in Connecticut on November 1 st and 2nd. The margin of error for MA is +/-3.0% and for CT it s +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. Phone: Public Policy Polling Web:

2 Massachusetts Survey Results Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Barack Obama...57% Mitt Romney...42% Undecided... 2% The candidates for Senate are Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Republican Scott Brown. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Elizabeth Warren...52% Scott Brown...46% Undecided... 2% Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama s job performance?...51%...43%... 7% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?...40%...54%... 7% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ellizabeth Warren?...50%...43%... 7% Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Scott Brown s job performance?...52%...36%...12% Q7 Q8 Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John Kerry s job performance?...50%...33%...17% Generally speaking, if there was an election for Senate today, would you vote for Democrat John Kerry or his Republican opponent? John Kerry...54% Republican opponent...30%...15% Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat, or very? liberal...13% Somewhat liberal...23% Moderate...35% Somewhat...23%... 6% Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman...57%...43% Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3. Democrat...39% Republican...16% Independent/Other...% Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2. White...82% Other...18% Survey of 1,089 likely voters

3 Q13 If you are years old, press 1. If, press 2. If, press 3. If you are older than, press %...24%...41% than...20% Survey of 1,089 likely voters

4 Obam a/rom ney Barack Obama 57% 89% 88% 54% 25% 10% Mitt Romney 42% 11% 11% 43% 73% 88% Undecide d 2% - 1% 3% 1% 2% Warren/Brow n Elizabeth Warren 52% 84% 84% 47% 22% 9% Scott Brown 46% 16% 15% 49% 78% 90% Undecide d 2% - 1% 4% 1% 1% Obama Approval 51% 79% 78% 48% 24% 10% 43% 18% 16% 43% 71% 87% 7% 3% 6% 10% 6% 3% Romney Favorability 40% 11% 11% 40% 72% 83% 54% 86% 84% 50% 23% 11% 7% 3% 5% 10% 5% 6% survey of 1,089 likely voters

5 Warren Favorability 50% 84% 80% 44% 21% 9% 43% 15% 15% 47% 71% 82% 7% 0% 5% 9% 8% 8% Brown Approval 52% 22% 32% 55% 77% 82% 36% 69% 57% % 13% 9% 12% 8% 11% 16% 9% 8% Kerry Approval 50% 74% 76% 46% 28% 4% 33% 15% 11% 34% 51% 80% 17% 11% 13% 20% 22% 16% Kerry or GOP Opponent? John Kerry 54% 84% 85% 51% 24% 9% Republican 30% 12% 4% 30% 55% 78% opponent 15% 4% 11% 19% 21% 13% survey of 1,089 likely voters

6 Obama/Romney Warren/Brown Barack Obama 57% 59% 53% Elizabeth Warren 52% 55% 48% Mitt Romney 42% 39% % Scott Brown 46% 44% 49% Unde cided 2% 1% 2% Unde cided 2% 1% 3% Obama Approval Romney Favorability 51% 53% 47% 40% 38% 43% 43% 39% 47% 54% 55% 51% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 6% survey of 1,089 likely voters

7 Warren Favorability Brown Approval 50% 52% 47% 52% 51% 54% 43% 40% 48% 36% 35% 36% 7% 8% 6% 12% 13% 10% Kerry Approval 50% 49% 50% 33% 30% 36% 17% 21% 13% Kerry or GOP Opponent? John Kerry Republican opponent 54% 56% 52% 30% 28% 34% 15% 16% 15% survey of 1,089 likely voters

8 Democrat Republican Independent/Other Obam a/rom ney Barack Obama 57% 89% 11% % Mitt Romney 42% 11% 89% 52% Undecided 2% 0% - 3% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Warren/Brow n Elizabeth Warren 52% 84% 12% 38% Scott Brown 46% 15% 88% 59% Undecided 2% 1% - 3% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Democrat Republican Independent/Other Obama Approval Romney Favorability 51% 82% 11% 38% 40% 13% 85% 46% 43% 13% 86% 53% 54% 82% 13% 44% 7% 5% 3% 9% 7% 5% 3% 9% survey of 1,089 likely voters

9 Democrat Republican Independent/Other Democrat Republican Independent/Other Warren Favorability Brown Approval 50% 79% 13% 38% 52% 27% 87% 62% 43% 14% 80% 55% 36% 59% 8% 25% 7% 7% 7% 6% 12% 14% 4% 13% Kerry Approval Democrat Republican Independent/Other 50% 71% 17% 43% 33% 13% % 39% 17% 16% 17% 19% Kerry or GOP Opponent? John Kerry Democrat Republican Independent/Other 54% 85% 13% 42% Republican 30% 6% 73% 36% opponent 15% 9% 14% 21% survey of 1,089 likely voters

10 Obama/Romney Warren/Brown Barack Obama 57% 54% 71% Elizabeth Warren 52% 49% 66% Mitt Romney 42% % 27% Scott Brown 46% 50% 31% Unde cided 2% 1% 2% Unde cided 2% 2% 2% Obama Approval Romney Favorability 51% 47% % 40% 44% 22% 43% 46% 28% 54% 51% 67% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 11% survey of 1,089 likely voters

11 Warren Favorability Brown Approval 50% 47% 64% 52% 55% 42% 43% 47% 26% 36% 35% 41% 7% 6% 10% 12% 11% 18% Kerry Approval 50% 50% 47% 33% 33% 31% 17% 16% 22% Kerry or GOP Opponent? John Kerry Republican opponent 54% 53% 61% 30% 33% 19% 15% 14% 20% survey of 1,089 likely voters

12 than than Obama/Romney Warren/Brown Barack Obama 57% 61% 50% 58% 58% Elizabeth Warren 52% 48% 47% 54% 56% Mitt Romney 42% 37% 48% 41% 40% Scott Brown 46% 50% 50% % 42% Undecide d 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% Undecide d 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% than than Obama Approval Romney Favorability 51% 48% % 54% 52% 40% 34% 43% 41% 38% Dis approve 43% 41% 49% 41% 40% 54% 61% 46% 55% 54% 7% 11% 6% 5% 8% 7% 5% 10% 4% 8% survey of 1,089 likely voters

13 than than Warren Favorability Brown Approval 50% 54% 44% 49% 56% 52% 51% 59% 52% 46% 43% 43% 46% 44% 39% Dis approve 36% 32% 27% 39% 43% 7% 4% 9% 7% 5% 12% 17% 14% 9% 11% Kerry Approval Dis approve than 50% 42% 42% 56% 51% 33% 33% 36% 32% 33% 17% 25% 22% 13% 16% Kerry or GOP Opponent? John Kerry Republican opponent than 54% 56% 49% 58% 52% 30% % % 31% 33% 15% 15% 22% 11% 15% survey of 1,089 likely voters

14 Connecticut Survey Results Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Barack Obama...55% Mitt Romney...42% Undecided... 3% The candidates for Senate are Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican Linda McMahon. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Chris Murphy...52% Linda McMahon...43% Undecided... 4% Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama s job performance?...51%...42%... 7% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?...41%...52%... 8% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Chris Murphy?...40%...42%...18% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Linda McMahon?...37%...52%... 11% Q7 Q8 Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Dan Malloy's job performance?... 46%... 38% 17%... Generally speaking, if there was an election for Governor today, would you vote for Democrat Dan Malloy or his Republican opponent? Dan Malloy... 48% Republican opponent... 37% 15%... Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat, or very? liberal...10% Somewhat liberal...19% Moderate...36% Somewhat...24%...10% Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman...53%...47% Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3. Democrat...41% Republican...26% Independent/Other...34% Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2. White...82% Other...18% Survey of 1,220 likely voters

15 Q13 If you are years old, press 1. If, press 2. If, press 3. If you are older than, press %...26%...42% than...20% Survey of 1,220 likely voters

16 Obam a/rom ney Barack Obama 55% 89% 88% 62% 20% 16% Mitt Romney 42% 7% 10% 34% 76% 83% Undecide d 3% 3% 1% 4% 4% 2% Murphy/McMahon Chris Murphy 52% 85% 86% 57% 22% 11% Linda McMahon 43% 10% 14% 38% 74% 80% Undecide d 4% 5% 0% 5% 4% 9% Obama Approval 51% 86% 82% 57% 18% 11% 42% 5% 13% 35% 73% 84% 7% 9% 5% 8% 9% 4% Romney Favorability 41% 6% 12% 32% 74% 82% 52% 87% 85% 56% 19% 14% 8% 7% 4% 11% 7% 4% survey of 1,220 likely voters

17 Murphy Favorability 40% 64% 68% 44% 15% 7% 42% 8% 14% 38% 69% 83% 18% 28% 18% 18% 16% 10% McMahon Favorability 37% 7% 15% % 64% 71% 52% 78% 79% 58% 25% 18% 11% 15% 5% 13% 12% 12% Malloy Approval 46% 68% 64% 49% % 13% 38% 15% 20% 33% 53% 76% 17% 17% 16% 18% 18% 11% Malloy or GOP Opponent? Dan Malloy Republican opponent 48% 89% 71% 50% 22% 16% 37% 5% 15% 30% 61% 76% 15% 6% 13% 20% 17% 7% survey of 1,220 likely voters

18 Obama/Romney Murphy/McMahon Barack Obama 55% 59% 51% Chris Murphy 52% 55% 48% Mitt Romney 42% 37% 47% Linda McMahon 43% 39% 48% Unde cided 3% 4% 2% Unde cided 4% 5% 3% Obama Approval Romney Favorability 51% 54% 47% 41% 37% % 42% 38% 46% 52% 55% 48% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 7% survey of 1,220 likely voters

19 Murphy Favorability 40% 42% 38% 42% 39% 46% 18% 19% 16% McMahon Favorability 37% 35% 38% 52% 53% 51% 11% 12% 10% Malloy Approval 46% 49% 42% 38% 33% 43% 17% 18% 15% Malloy or GOP Opponent? Dan Malloy Republican opponent 48% 51% % 37% 32% 42% 15% 17% 13% survey of 1,220 likely voters

20 Democrat Republican Independent/Other Obam a/rom ney Barack Obama 55% 88% 16% % Mitt Romney 42% 11% 82% 47% Undecided 3% 1% 2% 7% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Murphy/McMahon Chris Murphy 52% 84% 19% 39% Linda McMahon 43% 14% 77% 53% Undecided 4% 2% 4% 8% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Democrat Republican Independent/Other Obama Approval Romney Favorability 51% 83% 15% 39% 41% 12% 80% % 42% 13% 80% 48% 52% 83% 14% 43% 7% 4% 5% 13% 8% 6% 6% 12% survey of 1,220 likely voters

21 Democrat Republican Independent/Other Democrat Republican Independent/Other Murphy Favorability 40% % 16% 28% 42% 16% 73% 50% 18% 19% 11% 22% McMahon Favorability 37% 13% % 44% 52% 78% 24% 42% 11% 9% 10% 15% Malloy Approval Democrat Republican Independent/Other 46% 62% 26% 40% 38% 22% 59% 41% 17% 16% 15% 19% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Malloy or GOP Opponent? Dan Malloy 48% 77% 17% 38% Republican 37% 12% 69% 41% opponent 15% 11% 14% 21% survey of 1,220 likely voters

22 Obama/Romney Murphy/McMahon Barack Obama 55% 53% 67% Chris Murphy 52% 52% 55% Mitt Romney 42% % 27% Linda McMahon 43% % 35% Unde cided 3% 2% 7% Unde cided 4% 3% 10% Obama Approval Romney Favorability 51% 48% 62% 41% 44% 26% 42% 44% 32% 52% 49% 63% 7% 8% 6% 8% 7% 10% survey of 1,220 likely voters

23 Murphy Favorability 40% 38% 46% 42% 44% 36% 18% 18% 18% McMahon Favorability 37% 38% 28% 52% 52% 54% 11% 10% 18% Malloy Approval 46% 44% 51% 38% 40% % 17% 16% 20% Malloy or GOP Opponent? Dan Malloy Republican opponent 48% 48% 50% 37% 39% 27% 15% 14% 23% survey of 1,220 likely voters

24 than than Obama/Romney Murphy/McMahon Barack Obama 55% 53% 55% 56% 54% Chris Murphy 52% 47% 50% 53% 56% Mitt Romney 42% 42% 41% 41% 44% Linda McMahon 43% 42% 46% 44% 41% Undecide d 3% 5% 4% 2% 2% Undecide d 4% 12% 4% 3% 3% than than Obama Approval Romney Favorability 51% 44% 51% 52% 50% 41% 46% 38% 40% 43% Dis approve 42% 44% 41% 42% 44% 52% 51% 53% 52% 50% 7% 12% 8% 6% 6% 8% 2% 10% 8% 7% survey of 1,220 likely voters

25 than than Murphy Favorability 40% 35% 38% 40% % 42% 43% 43% 43% 40% 18% 23% 19% 17% 15% McMahon Favorability 37% 43% 36% 36% 37% 52% % 52% 53% 54% 11% 13% 13% 11% 9% Malloy Approval Dis approve than 46% 42% 42% 47% 49% 38% 32% 43% 39% 33% 17% 26% 16% 14% 18% Malloy or GOP Opponent? Dan Malloy Republican opponent than 48% 53% 49% 46% 50% 37% 34% 37% 38% 35% 15% 13% 14% 17% 15% survey of 1,220 likely voters