excerpt from report by our friend Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.

Transcription

1 From: John R Brakey johnbrakey@gmail.com Subject: THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN WISCONSIN PRELIMINARY REPORT Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. Date: November 18, 2016 at 9:34 AM To: Mickey Duniho **ET AUDITAZ maduniho@cox.net Cc: Arlene Leaf **ET AUDIT AZ glowleaf1@yahoo.com, Lianda Ludwig **ET AUDITAZ Lianda@Mac.com, lori Grace **ET CA lori@lorigrace.org, Bob Fitrakis **ET OH robertfitrakis@gmail.com, Jim March Simpson **ET AUDIT AZ 1.jim.march@gmail.com, Richard Hernandez **ET AUDITAZ rhndz109@gmail.com, Sandra Spangler **ET AUDITAZ msgif66@gmail.com, TJ O'Hara **ET CA drtjohara@gmail.com, JOANNE Scott Woods **ET Mar justice4allinaz@gmail.com, Russ Michaels **ET bathtimefilms@hotmail.com excerpt from report by our friend Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. In the City of Baraboo, Sauk County, according to the latest numbers posted on official government websites, there were 8,390 ballots cast, and 6,923 registered voters, which equates to a voter turnout of %. In the Village of Stockholm, Pepin County, voter turnout was % (57 ballots cast, 54 registered voters). In the City of Wisconsin Dells, Sauk County, voter turnout was % (89 ballots cast, 87 registered voters). In the Town of McKinley, Polk County, voter turnout was % (191 ballots cast, 191 registered voters. Nobody died or moved away. And everybody voted. In the Town of Tipler, Florence County, previous figures showed a voter turnout of % (104 ballots cast, 102 registered voters). These numbers have since been amended. In another 11 towns and villages, voter turnout was 95% or higher. In still another 80 towns and villages, voter turnout was 90% or higher. (I will have more to say on these high-turnout towns and villages in a follow-up report). Either these voter turnout percentages are an historic achievement, unparalleled in my experience, or the unofficial results are not true and correct. John THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN WISCONSIN PRELIMINARY REPORT Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. Overview

2 Overview Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin by 27,159 votes, or 0.885% of 3,068,434 ballots cast, according to unofficial results. The count was 1,410,027 for Trump, 1,382,868 for Clinton. Compared to the 2012 presidential election, the Democratic presidential candidate lost ground in all but 4 of 72 counties: Dane, Ozaukee, Washington, Waukesha. Statewide, Clinton in 2016 got 238,117 fewer votes than Obama in 2012, a loss of 14.69%. Trump got 2,061 more votes than Romney, a gain of 0.15%. The Democratic vote was down by 20% in 46 of 72 counties. Clinton carried 13 counties, 10 of which have paper ballots. Trump carried 59 counties, 12 of which have paper ballots. Trump flipped 22 counties from blue to red: Adams, Buffalo, Columbia, Crawford, Door, Dunn, Forest, Grant, Jackson, Juneau, Kenosha, Lafayette, Lincoln, Marquette, Pepin, Price, Racine, Richland, Sawyer, Trempealeau, Vernon, Winnebago. [ see "Wisconsin by County," attached ]. Voter turnout was 82.74% statewide (2,944,620 of 3,558,877). These are unofficial results. There may be votes yet to be counted. Turnout in the Democratic strongholds was 80.57% in Dane County (304,729 of 378,210), and 77.40% in Milwaukee County (434,970 of 561,965). Turnout in the rest of the state was 84.20% (2,204,921 of 2,618,702). This is, in my experience, extraordinarily high. It is said that Trump was elected because he was better able to turn out his supporters than was Hillary Clinton. The Republican base was more enthusiastic about Trump than for McCain or Romney, all across rural America, and the Democratic base was less enthusiastic about Clinton than for Obama, especially in urban black neighborhoods. Wisconsin is as good a place as any to test this hypothesis. 1 Voter registration data, as of 2 November 2016, town by town, or ward by ward,

3 Voter registration data, as of 2 November 2016, town by town, or ward by ward, are available from the Wisconsin Elections Commission, in a spreadsheet with a separate tab for each of the 72 counties: /statistics/registered-voters-2016 Unofficial election results, town by town, or ward by ward, are available from the Election Commissions of the various counties. Links to all 72 counties are found here: Milwaukee In Milwaukee County, in 2012, Obama got 67.49%, Romney got 31.45%. In 2016, Clinton got 66.44%, Trump got 28.99%. In Milwaukee County voter turnout was down by 11.69%, from 492,576 ballots cast in 2012 to 434,970 ballots cast in In Milwaukee County, the net loss for Clinton was 14,619 votes, or 3.36% of 434,970 ballots cast, due to reduced voter turnout. There are 478 wards in Milwaukee County (wards in Wisconsin are equivalent in size to precincts in other states). There are 324 wards are in the City of Milwaukee (excluding three that appear on the list but have zero registered voters). Of these, 114 were carried by Clinton by margins of ten to one or better. These are almost certainly predominantly black neighborhoods. In none of these wards was the voter turnout as high as 84.20%. The highest percentage, in Ward 153, was 81.60%. All others were below 80%. Voter turnout was below 75% in 103 of these 114 precincts, below 70% in 74 of these 114 precincts, below 65% in 33 of these 114 precincts, and below 60% in 11 of these 114 precincts. I have compiled the data for these 114 precincts, arranged numerically, and sorted according to percentage turnout (ballots cast divided by registered voters). [ see "Ten to One Wards Table," attached ]. In these 114 wards, the vote, in the aggregate, was 70,199 for Clinton, 3,135 for Trump -- a margin of better than 20 to 1. Turnout, in the aggregate, was 68.15% (75,648 ballots cast, 110,998 registered voters). While this is not, in my

4 experience, extraordinarily low, it was not enough to overcome the 84.20% turnout in rural Wisconsin. 2 A record turnout in these 114 wards would not have been sufficient for Clinton to carry Wisconsin. As stated above, Trump defeated Clinton by 27,159 votes statewide. If Clinton defeated Trump by 67,064 votes in these 144 wards, with a turnout of 68.15%, it stands to reason that a turnout of %, in these 144 wards, could only have produced a margin of about 98,400 votes, barely enough to break even statewide. Clinton did carry Milwaukee County, in its entirety, by 162,895 votes, with a turnout of 77.40% (434,970 ballots cast, 561,965 registered voters). It stands to reason that a turnout of 90.00%, countywide, would have produced a margin of about 189,400 votes, not quite enough to break even statewide. Clinton did carry Dane County, where Madison is located, by 146,236 votes, with a turnout of 80.57%. Clinton carried the two counties combined by 309,131 votes, with a turnout of 78.68%. It stands to reason that a turnout of 86.00%, in these two counties combined, would have produced a margin of about 337,900 votes, barely enough to carry the state of Wisconsin. Simply stated, there were simply not enough voters in Milwaukee and Madison for Clinton to overcome the margin enjoyed by Trump in rural Wisconsin. The question becomes: How did Trump manage to do so well in the Wisconsin countryside? Rural Wisconsin According to data from the Wisconsin Elections Commission, voter turnout was 86% or higher in twelve counties in Wisconsin: Burnett, Calumet, Chippewa, Florence, Green, Outagamie, Pepin, Polk, Sauk, Washington, Waushara, Wood. [ see "Wisconsin Voter Turnout 2016," attached ]. For these twelve counties I have downloaded the unofficial results, town by town, from the websites of the Election Commissions of the various counties, and compiled tables of data, showing for each town the number of registered voters, the number of ballots cast, and the voter turnout as a percentage. The countywide percentages have increased somewhat, probably due to the counting of absentee and provisional ballots.

5 and provisional ballots. The twelve tables are presented in one file. [ see "County Turnout Files," attached ]. 3 The countywide figures are compiled below: Registered Voters Ballots Cast Percentage Turnout Burnett 10,087 8, % Calumet 30,495 26, % Chippewa 36,107 31, % Florence 3,071 2,676

6 87.14% Green 21,670 18, % Outagamie 109,491 95, % Pepin 4,324 3, % Polk 26,328 22, % Sauk 37,195 34, % Washington 87,270

7 87,270 78, % Waushara 13,715 11, % Wood 43,433 37, % Voter turnout, according to the latest unofficial figures, was highest in Sauk County, at 92.28% countywide (34,323 ballots cast, 37,195 registered voters). Upon closer examination, these numbers are not credible. In the City of Baraboo, Sauk County, according to the latest numbers posted on official government websites, there were 8,390 ballots cast, and 6,923 registered voters, which equates to a voter turnout of %. In the Village of Stockholm, Pepin County, voter turnout was % (57 ballots cast, 54 registered voters). In the City of Wisconsin Dells, Sauk County, voter turnout was % (89 ballots cast, 87 registered voters). In the Town of McKinley, Polk County, voter turnout was % (191 ballots cast, 191 registered voters. Nobody died or moved away. And everybody voted. In the Town of Tipler, Florence County, previous figures showed a voter turnout of % (104 ballots cast, 102 registered voters). These numbers have since been amended. In another 11 towns and villages, voter turnout was 95% or higher. In still another

8 In another 11 towns and villages, voter turnout was 95% or higher. In still another 80 towns and villages, voter turnout was 90% or higher. (I will have more to say on these high-turnout towns and villages in a follow-up report). Either these voter turnout percentages are an historic achievement, unparalleled in my experience, or the unofficial results are not true and correct. 4 Where%some%of%us%gamed?%Brad%Friedman%radio%show%exposes%how%Fake%News%worked%for%pro8 Trump/an;8Clinton%on%internet.%Also%big,%Elec;on%integrity%expert%and%exit%poll%analyst%and%friend Dr.%Jonathon%Simon%said;%"Let%me%put%it%this%way,%the%ques;on%that%I%would%want%to%put%to anybody%keeping%score%at%home%would%be,%'what%would%trump%do?'%if%these%same%numbers%came out,%only%they%were%reversed%888%in%a%parallel%universe,%trump%won%the%popular%vote,%and%hillary Clinton%won%the%Presidency%and%the%electoral%college,%and%there%were%all%these%states%in%which the%exit%polls%favored%trump%and%somehow%the%vote%counts%favored%clinton%888%you%can%bet%your borom%dollar,%based%on%what%he%said%going%into%the%elec;on,%based%on%the%astude%he%had%about not%conceding,%about%making%sure%if%he%felt%there%was%any%suspicion%that%he%would%challenge,%that they%would%be%challenging%these%results." FULL STORY, LISTEN: %