A PRIMER ON UNITED STATES VOTING BEHAVIOR

Transcription

1 BOB LOEVY Department Of Political Science at Colorado College A PRIMER ON UNITED STATES VOTING BEHAVIOR Based on the Statewide Partisan Average (SPA) 1

2 THE STATEWIDE PARTISAN AVERAGE Measures Democratic and Republican vote percentages. Based on major statewide elections U.S. President, state Governor, and U.S. Senator. Covers 20 years of elections. 2

3 STATEWIDE PARTISAN AVERAGE

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6 Statewide Partisan Average by Regions MAJOR CONCLUSIONS The shift of the South from the Democratic to the Republican Party is the major change from 1976 to A less notable but equally important shift has occurred of upper East Coast and Pacific Coast states to the Democrats (plus Illinois). There is a new regionalism. It is the two major coasts versus the central United States. (go to Part Two) 6

7 Colorado State Capitol Located in Denver, Colorado. A PRIMER ON VOTING BEHAVIOR IN COLORADO Knowing where the votes are is the first step. 7

8 THE SIX GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS OF COLORADO The Front Range is the highly-populated strip at the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains. It consists of Denver Metro plus Front Range (not Denver Metro). REGIONS OF COLORADO EXPLODED BY PRESIDENTIAL VOTE Republican vote for president in Colorado in 2008 added to Democratic vote for president in Colorado in 2008 to calculate two-party total. 8

9 TWENTY-YEAR VOTING PATTERN County votes for president, U.S. senator, and governor of Colorado from 1989 to Presidential Vote in 2008 Populous counties shifting from Democratic to Republican were Arapahoe, Jefferson, and Larimer. 9

10 COLORADO COUNTIES EXPLODED BY TWENTY- YEAR VOTING PATTERN County votes for president, U.S. senator, and governor of Colorado from 1989 to COLORADO COUNTIES EXPLODED BY PRESIDENTIAL PERCENTAGES IN 2008 Populous counties shifting from Democratic to Republican were Arapahoe, Jefferson, and Larimer. 10

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12 Major Conclusions About Colorado Voting Behavior DEMOCRATIC STRENGTH Traditional areas of Democratic strength are Denver City and County, Boulder County, Adams County, Southern Colorado, and the destination ski areas on the Western Slope. Major Conclusions About Colorado Voting Behavior REPUBLICAN STRENGTH Traditional areas of Republican strength are El Paso County, Douglas County, Weld County, the Eastern Plains, and the farming-ranching-mining counties on the Western Slope. 12

13 Conclusions on Voting (continued) The populous counties most likely at the present time to swing back and forth between the major political parties are Arapahoe County, Jefferson County, and Larimer County. A Grim Reality Similar Housing Choices Because people tend to settle in neighborhoods populated by people similar to themselves, large areas of party strength are created in many parts of the state. Upscale and well-educated urban voters as well as minorities create areas of Democratic strength. Working class voters in rural areas and outer suburbs create areas of Republican strength. 13

14 Similar Housing Choices (continued) Competitive areas, also called swing areas or marginal areas, are most likely to be found in older suburban areas where minorities are beginning to settle. PRECINCT LEVEL VOTING MAPS Where Voting Behavior Analysis Begins 14

15 A COUNTY IN TRANSITION A somewhat even balance of Democratic and Republican voters makes Arapahoe County a competitive county. A SECOND COUNTY IN TRANSITION A somewhat even balance of Democratic and Republican voters provides the opportunity for either political party to win elections. 15

16 WHERE REPUBLICANS MEET DEMOCRATS Hispanic voters moving out from Denver combine with upscale voters in the foothills to make Jefferson County more Democratic. NO PLACE FOR REPUBLICANS Only Democrats have a chance of getting elected in Denver City and County. 16

17 PRESIDENT- EL PASO COUNTY BLUE = DEMOCRATIC 50 PERCENT PLUS WHITE = REPUBLICAN PERCENT RED = REPUBLICAN 75 PERCENT PLUS BLUE COLORADO SPRINGS Democratic strength is concentrated around downtown Colorado Springs in Colorado s most heavily Republican county. 17