The New Shape of the Republican Race

Transcription

1 The New Shape of the Republican Race Insights based on the work of Ronald Brownstein February 26, 2016 First Published: February 26, 2016 Producer: Alexander Perry Director: Afzal Bari

2 Trump Has Strong Hold on the Lesser Educated Vote; More Educated, White Collar Voters Have Yet to Coalesce Shape of Republican Race after South Carolina Primary Candidate Donald Trump Standing in Race As in New Hampshire, Trump s support in South Carolina has transcended usual divides in the Republican Party, with one big exception: education Trump has not run as well among voters with a college degree as he has among those lacking advanced education Simply put, Trump has consolidated blue-collar Republicans, while the party s white collar wing remains divided Ted Cruz So far in the presidential race, Cruz s voter base has been lopsidedly dependent on evangelical Christians; he has not effectively broadened his appeal The contests through mid-march portend to be decisive for Cruz, as they occur in states where blue collar workers and evangelicals make up a large component of the electorate Marco Rubio Rubio s relatively strong performance with college-educated Republicans suggests a path with these voters as a centerpiece may be open to Rubio as the race continues In South Carolina, Rubio garnered support from many different parts of the electorate; however, he did not win more than 30% with any key group, suggesting that his coalition of support has so far been too shallow Source: Ronald Brownstein, The New Shape of the Republican Race, The Atlantic, Feb 21, 2016; South Carolina Exit Polls, CNN Politics, Feb 20, 2016

3 Trump Has Consolidated the Blue-Collar Vote, Dominating Among Those Lacking Higher Education Blue Collar Vote in South Carolina GOP Primary, CNN Exit Polls So far, Donald Trump has dominated the working class vote and transcended normal demographic divides in the Republican party Trump even captured a plurality of evangelical voters without a college degree, eating into the group of voters Cruz targeted most directly 45% of Electorate Despite Trump s strong hold on the blue-collar vote, two key questions remain: Does Trump have a ceiling of support and can any of his rivals unify enough of the remaining voters to defeat him? Source: Ronald Brownstein, The New Shape of the Republican Race, The Atlantic, Feb 21, 2016; South Carolina Exit Polls, CNN Politics, Feb 20, 2016; Noun Project: Luis Prado.

4 Trump Displays Less Support Among Educated Voters; White Collar Vote is Still Fractured Educated Vote in South Carolina GOP Primary, CNN Exit Polls Better-educated voters are relatively less likely to have voted for Trump; Among voters with a postgraduate education, Rubio won in SC by a significant margin March 15 After March 15, the primary calendar shifts toward more affluent, bettereducated states, where Trump may be more vulnerable 54% of Electorate 33% of Electorate 21% of Electorate Source: Ronald Brownstein, The New Shape of the Republican Race, The Atlantic, Feb 21, 2016; South Carolina Exit Polls, CNN Politics, Feb 20, 2016; Noun Project: Creative Stall. February 24, 2016 Alexander Perry

5 Trump Holds Broad Appeal Across Ideological Spectrum; Cruz Wins Among Very Conservative Voters Ideological Vote in South Carolina GOP Primary, CNN Exit Polls Trump s appeal spanned the ideological spectrum, as he held a significant lead among somewhat conservative and moderate voters and carried 29% of very conservative voters Cruz has not been able to break out beyond voters who identify as very conservative 38% of Electorate 43% of Electorate 17% of Electorate Source: Ronald Brownstein, The New Shape of the Republican Race, The Atlantic, Feb 21, 2016; South Carolina Exit Polls, CNN Politics, Feb 20, 2016; Noun Project, Alex Tai, Alexander Wiefel.

6 Cruz s Grasp on the Evangelical Vote Slipped in South Carolina Evangelical Vote in South Carolina GOP Primary, CNN Exit Polls This is a particularly concerning number for Cruz, who has not effectively broadened his appeal So far in the presidential race, Cruz s voter base has been lopsidedly dependent on evangelical Christians; however, he has not effectively broadened his appeal. Among non-evangelical voters, Cruz has thus far performed poorly: 18% in IA, 8% in NH, 13% in SC, and 18% in NV Worryingly for Cruz, his grasp on the evangelical vote was squeezed on two fronts in South Carolina: Rubio won among evangelicals with a college degree and Trump won among evangelicals without a college degree 72% of Electorate 28% of Electorate Source: Ronald Brownstein, The New Shape of the Republican Race, The Atlantic, Feb 21, 2016; South Carolina Exit Polls, CNN Politics, Feb 20, 2016, Noun Project, Prasad.