Open-Ended First Choice Ballot. South Carolina Tie
|
|
- Barry Neal
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 With Florida absentee ballots dropping in 40 days (January 30 th ), we wanted to take the month of December to analyze the attitude and opinions of likely Republican primary voters to serve as an appropriate bookend to our research from this past summer. To this end we initially conducted a 400 sample, likely Republican primary voter survey in advance of a focus group we conducted on Tuesday night December 8 th in St. Petersburg, FL. We picked this city because Pinellas County had the 2 nd highest number of Republican votes cast in the 2012 Florida Presidential Preference. That following week, after the 5 th and final Republican debate of 2015, we fielded an 800 likely Republican primary voter survey in Florida on Wednesday & Thursday, December 16 & 17 th. However, with so many states voting prior to March 15, and with two native sons in the race for the Republican nomination, we acknowledged that Florida very well could be an outlier. Therefore, in order to put the Florida data in proper context, we also fielded surveys in South Carolina (600 likely Republican primary voters) on Wednesday & Thursday December 16 & 17 and then in (500 likely Republican & Unaffiliated voters) on Thursday & Friday December 17 & 18. This summary provides the open-ended ballot tests of the three states first, followed by a second choice ballot in the early states only. We did not conduct a three-way ballot in Florida as it seems our winner take all primary occurs much too late in the calendar for a relevant comparison today. Trump + 8% Open-Ended First Choice Ballot Tie Florida Trump + 11% Donald Trump 24% Donald Trump 27% Donald Trump 29% Ted Cruz 16% Ted Cruz 27% Ted Cruz 18% Marco Rubio 14% Marco Rubio 12% Marco Rubio 17% Chris Christie 13% Ben Carson 11% Jeb Bush 10% Jeb Bush 9% Jeb Bush 7% Ben Carson 6% Others 13% Others 5% Others 8% Undecided 11% Undecided 11% Undecided 12% Second Choice Ted Cruz 20% Marco Rubio 26% Marco Rubio 19% Ted Cruz 23% Chris Christie 17% Ben Carson 11% Donald Trump 9% Donald Trump 9% Ben Carson 7% Jeb Bush 6% Others 17% Others 13% Undecided 11% Undecided 12% Given the considerable distance by which the top 3 candidates outpaced the rest of the field in these surveys, our analysis focuses on them rather than the complete field. There are two obvious findings in these top lines: one is that Senator Cruz has managed to now tie Donald Trump in. The second is that Senators Cruz & Rubio are dominating the second choice ballot, with Governor Chris Christie making a strong case in. There is a mountain of valuable data points in this research summarized here into 3 key points, however
2 this data solely reflects how the year is ending after the 5 debates, terrorist attacks at home and abroad and the Donald Trump phenomenon. 1) Early State Numbers Prove This Race is Still Young As of this writing there are 42 days remaining until the Iowa Caucuses, 50 and 61 days remaining until the & primaries respectively. These first three events we refer to as the early states and we underscore this data is a snapshot in time and only meant to detail how 2015 is ending. There is still plenty of time for movement within the top tier candidates and this is evidenced by the soft image ratings of virtually every candidate we surveyed in &. As a reminder, when a voter gives us their initial image of a candidate, whether it be favorable or unfavorable, we push for intensity on that opinion by asking if it s somewhat favorable or very favorable. We then collapse or add those numbers together for a topline rating (i.e. 23% and 20% is a 43% Favorability rating). The higher a candidate s very percentage, be it favorable or unfavorable, is a gauge of intensity. With that in mind the image ratings in these early states suggests there is still much room for movement for virtually all of the candidates, and we should expect the persuasion efforts to ramp up dramatically after the holidays. Below is a table of the image ratings for the candidates we selected: Marco Rubio Chris Christie Ted Cruz Ben Carson Donald Trump Jeb Bush Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Ben Carson Donald Trump Jeb Bush Lindsay Graham ) At the end of 2015, the Republican Primary is Essentially a Three Way Contest As of today this data suggests the race for the Republican nomination is essentially a three-way contest between Donald Trump, Senator Ted Cruz and Senator Marco Rubio. More specifically data from all three states confirm that Senator Cruz and Rubio find themselves deadlocked in a heated battle for second place, with their image numbers potentially serving as a leading indicator they could become the front runners before too much longer. We will note Governor Chris Christie has made up substantial ground in, however his current ballot placement in suggests that is largely a geographic advantage as he came in at
3 only 2% & 4% on the first & second choice ballot in, and only 3% in Florida. 3) 2015: Donald Trump s Perfect Storm Even though Mr. Trump is leading in Florida &, and is now tied with Senator Cruz in, it appears he may have now hit his ceiling. Our Florida focus group provided the most insight into this subject because it demonstrated that the large field of GOP candidates is likely doing as much or more to enable and sustain Donald Trump s frontrunner status than anything he himself has done. However, there also is a deep sense of division within the Republican Party and this divide can be described as the fuel which has propelled Mr. Trump s rise. Mr. Trump clearly has benefited from an environment within the Republican base which expresses deep disenchantment with their elected party leaders, as well as the entire political process as a whole. In our Florida focus group, all likely primary voting Republicans expressed negative sentiments about the direction of the country, but the words used to describe the leadership of their own party mirrored rhetoric typically reserved to describe political figures on the left. These voters believed there is a profound alienation between them and their elected leaders at virtually all levels of government. They also sensed their elected leaders have no interest in the well-being of ordinary Americans but instead perpetuate a government that increasingly disconnects from the needs of the people they serve. It s clear that the candidates who best empathize with those sentiments (i.e. Trump & Cruz) will have the best starting position as the 2016 primaries begin. Our survey data suggests Mr. Trump s sustained lead, often described in the media as dominating the Republican field, is mostly a result of simple mathematics rather than his prowess as a candidate. After all, any candidate who is backed by 25% of a likely electorate will look dominant when ~65% of that electorate is split 12 ways and another ~10% remain undecided. More specifically Mr. Trump has the same level of support within the Republican Party s current 12-way primary as self-proclaimed socialist Senator Bernie Sanders has in his 3- way primary in the Democrat Party according to early state polls and a compilation of national survey averages. In each instance, both candidates extreme positions speak to an isolated, but distinct and very disenchanted base within their respective parties. Real Clear Politics Survey as of 12/20 Donald Trump Bernie Sanders National Average 34% 31% Iowa 30% 37% 28% 51% 34% 23% Florida 34% 21% Clearly though, the data is conclusive that Mr. Trump has successfully cornered the market on 24%-30% of the GOP primary base in the states we surveyed. His supporters are passionate. They describe the leadership of the Republican Party with adjectives not appropriate for this document and is not likely that they will be pulling their support of Mr. Trump, regardless of what he says or does, as long as he is in the race. If a single candidate emerges as an alternative to Mr. Trump it will not be due to the negatives of Mr. Trump alone. Either the field will have to
4 shrink and/or a candidate will have to empathize with these real feelings within the Party and rise on their own merits (as Senator Cruz appears to be doing). Do we believe Mr. Trump can still secure the GOP nomination? Possibly. But as of today it seems there are likely alternatives. To reiterate, as long as 60% of the Republican Primary electorate is spread amongst 12 candidates, Mr. Trump s ceiling of support very well may be enough to secure the nomination. However, we point to Mr. Trump's image in comparison to the other top contenders as a possible leading indicator of his true position in this race. The 2 nd & 3 rd place candidates enjoy a sizable advantage in their favorability rating over Mr. Trump. Therefore it is difficult today to envision the GOP nominating a candidate that ~40% of them collectively view unfavorably. Florida Fav UnFav Net Fav Fav UnFav Net Fav Fav UnFav Net Fav Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Beyond just image ratings, another way we tested our theory about Mr. Trump reaching his ceiling was a hypothetical 3-way ballot to the voters in &. In, Mr. Trump gains 6% from the collapsed field while Senator Rubio gains 14% and Senator Cruz gains 10% respectively. However, the image ratings of those three candidates amongst the 16% of the undecided respondents is telling in this hypothetical ballot. Mr. Trump s image is largely underwater amongst this critical segment of voters: 3-Way Ballot Result Net Favorability Amongst Undecided Trump 30% -30 Rubio 28% +18 Cruz 26% +20 Undecided 16% In the results are the same. Mr. Trump gains 6% compared to the full field resulting in a statistical tie with Senator Cruz who gains 5%, and Senator Rubio gains 12% while 11% undecided. The internal data of the survey again shows the same trend as in : Mr. Trump is largely underwater with the undecideds in this hypothetical ballot as compared to Senators Cruz and Rubio: 3-Way Ballot Result Net Favorability Amongst Undecided Trump 33% -15 Cruz 32% +23 Rubio 24% +22 Undecided 11%
5 While these are hypothetical scenarios, they demonstrate that based on Mr. Trump s negative image ratings with these voters, the real fight in this primary as of today is between Senator Cruz and Senator Rubio and the next 50 days will be a true battle royal. In closing it appears that after the fifth and final debate of 2015 that Governor Chris Christie s latest efforts have resulted in a noticeable surge in. Senator Ted Cruz appears to be the candidate with the most momentum in and Florida, with Senator Rubio showing similar potential. However, as we saw in the debate last week, it s the battle between Senators Cruz and Rubio that will likely take the center stage of this primary over the next 2 months. Mr. Trump s continued advantage is largely built on an overly crowded field, but it s clear from all three surveys that Senator Rubio and Senator Cruz are both far from reaching their potential ceilings. For now, both candidates are well liked and have also managed to secure the #2 or #3 ballot spots in the states we surveyed. They also top out the second choice ballots in both early state surveys in this project. However, with relatively soft positives and overall low negatives we should all expect a heavy dose of persuasion to increase from both of them as they and their allies continue to define each other and become the prime targets for those beneath them on the ballot. We must give a very special thanks to Matt Mitchell & Joel Searby of Data Targeting for their assistance in the quantitative and qualitative research and analysis in Florida which provided us much of our insight while tracking the Trump phenomenon throughout Thank you also to Barry Zeplowitz & Bill Lee with Telopinion Research for their assistance in the quantitative analysis in &.
NATIONAL: 2016 GOP REMAINS WIDE OPEN
Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, April 6, 2015 Contact: PATRICK MURRAY
More informationAkron Buckeye Poll: Ohio Presidential Politics. Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics University of Akron. Executive Summary
Akron Buckeye Poll: Ohio Presidential Politics Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics University of Akron Executive Summary The 2015 Akron Buckeye Poll investigates underlying attitudes toward the
More informationJanuary 19, Media Contact: James Hellegaard Phone number:
January 19, 2018 Media Contact: James Hellegaard Phone number: 561-297-3020 Florida Atlantic University Poll: Trump Surges in Sunshine State, Bernie Cuts into Clintons lead in Dem Primary. Grayson (D)
More informationTrump and Sanders Have Big Leads in MetroNews West Virginia Poll
Cincinnati Corporate Office 4555 Lake Forest Drive - Suite 194, Cincinnati, OH USA 45242 1-513-772-1600 1-866-545-2828 NEWS FOR RELEASE 10:15 a.m. EST February 22, 2016 For More Information, Contact: Rex
More informationTrump Has 2:1 Lead over Rubio and Cruz (Trump 41%, Rubio 20%, Cruz 16%)
P R E S S R E L E A S E FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 8, 2016 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Trump Has 2:1 Lead over Rubio and Cruz (Trump 41%, Rubio 20%, Cruz 16%) EAST LANSING, Michigan --- Although
More informationRepublican Presidential Race in New Hampshire Shifts Following the Recent National Republican Presidential Debate
August, Republican Presidential Race in New Hampshire Shifts Following the Recent National Republican Presidential Debate By: R. Kelly Myers Marlin Fitzwater Fellow, Franklin Pierce University 6.. Portsmouth,
More informationMarist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY Phone Fax
Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll* Trump Ahead
More informationTrump Leads Grows Nationally; 41% of His Voters Want to Bomb Country From Aladdin; Clinton Maintains Big Lead
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 18, 2015 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH
More informationEmerson Poll: With No Joe, Clinton Leads Sanders By Wide Margin. Trump Solidifies Support in GOP Field. Carson and Rubio Pull Away From Pack.
Emerson Poll: With No Joe, Clinton Leads Sanders By Wide Margin. Trump Solidifies Support in GOP Field. Carson and Rubio Pull Away From Pack. Boston (Oct. 19, 2015): A new poll shows former Secretary of
More informationHOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED
The Star Tribune Minnesota Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research from Jan. 18-20, 2016. Results for the questions about the presidential race were released on Sunday, Jan. 24, 2016. HOW
More informationCLINTON IN TROUBLE IN COLORADO, IOWA, VIRGINIA, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY SWING STATE POLL FINDS; TRUMP S NEGATIVES ARE ALMOST 2-1
Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, (203) 535-6203 Tim Malloy, Assistant Director (203) 645-8043 Rubenstein Associates, Inc., Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: JULY 22, 2015 CLINTON
More informationNovember 18, Media Contact: Jim Hellegaard Phone number:
November 18, 2015 Media Contact: Jim Hellegaard Phone number: 561-319-2233 Email: jhellegaard@fau.edu Florida Atlantic University Poll: Trump Laps Field in Florida GOP Primary, Clinton Dominates in Dem
More information(212) FOR RELEASE: AUGUST
Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, (203) 535-6203 Tim Malloy, Assistant Director (203) 645-8043 Rubenstein Associates, Inc., Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: AUGUST 20, 2015 BIDEN
More informationMarist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY Phone Fax
Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll* Trump Leads
More informationMarist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY Phone Fax
Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll* Bush and Walker Emerge as Republican
More informationSource institution: The Florida Southern College Center for Polling and Policy Research.
Source institution: The Florida Southern College Center for Polling and Policy Research. Title: Florida Presidential Primary Preference Poll For press use, the institutional source name may be shortened
More informationMarist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY Phone Fax
Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll* Cruz and
More informationTrump Continues to Lead Big in Michigan (Trump 41% - Rubio 19% - Cruz 16% - Kasich 11%)
P R E S S R E L E A S E FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 25, 2016 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Trump Continues to Lead Big in Michigan (Trump 41% - Rubio 19% - Cruz 16% - Kasich 11%) EAST LANSING,
More informationNBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll March 2016 Michigan Questionnaire
Residents: n=2570, MOE +/-1.9% Registered Voters: n=2229, MOE +/-2.1% NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Michigan Questionnaire Potential Republican Electorate: n=877, MOE +/-3.3% Likely Republican Primary Voters:
More informationTrump Has Huge 4:1 Lead Over Kasich, Rubio and Cruz (Trump 41%, Kasich 11%, Cruz 11%, Rubio 10%)
P R E S S R E L E A S E FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 18, 2016 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Trump Has Huge 4:1 Lead Over Kasich, Rubio and Cruz (Trump 41%, Kasich 11%, Cruz 11%, Rubio 10%) EAST
More informationIn battleground Virginia, Clinton beating all Republicans in 2016 presidential matchups; GOP voters divided, with Bush up, Christie down
February 12, 2015 In battleground Virginia, Clinton beating all Republicans in 2016 presidential matchups; GOP voters divided, with Bush up, Christie down Summary of Key Findings 1. Virginia voters like
More informationHALF OF U.S. VOTERS EMBARRASSED WITH TRUMP AS PRESIDENT, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; TRUMP AT TOP OF GOP PACK, BUT CRUZ CLOSES IN
Tim Malloy, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 645-8043 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: DECEMBER 22, 2015 HALF OF U.S. VOTERS
More informationThe Republican Race: Trump Remains on Top He ll Get Things Done February 12-16, 2016
CBS NEWS POLL For release: Thursday, February 18, 2016 7:00 AM EST The Republican Race: Trump Remains on Top He ll Get Things Done February 12-16, 2016 Donald Trump (35%) continues to hold a commanding
More information_ 06. Ben Carson 0% 27% 72% 19% 7% 9% 07. Ted Cruz 0% 23% 57% 33% 16% 10% _ 08. John Kasich 2% 18% 54% 24% 9% 20%
Michigan Republican Presidential Primary Election Commissioned by Detroit Free Press, WXYZ TV 7, WLNS TV 6, WOOD TV 8, and WJRT TV 12 [Frequency Report of Survey Responses 400 sample 4.9% error rate] [Survey
More informationSouthern States JSU Poll: Republicans Carson, Paul, Huckabee, Fiorina, Trump and Santorum Lose Ground to Cruz and Rubio
For Immediate Release Contact: Southern States JSU Poll: Republicans Carson, Paul, Huckabee, Fiorina, Trump and Santorum Lose Ground to Cruz and Rubio Democrat Bernie Sanders Benefits from Vice-President
More informationNational JSU Poll: Republicans Carson, Paul, Huckabee, Fiorina, and Santorum Lose Ground to Trump, Cruz and Rubio
For Immediate Release Contact: National JSU Poll: Republicans Carson, Paul, Huckabee, Fiorina, and Santorum Lose Ground to Trump, Cruz and Rubio Democrat Bernie Sanders Benefits from Vice-President Biden
More informationGA GOP Presidential Primary 12/17/15. Fox 5 Atlanta. 538 (weighted) ±4.2% (95% confidence)
Sponsor(s) Fox 5 Atlanta Target Population Sampling Method Likely presidential primary voters; Republican; Georgia; CNN debate watchers (subset) Landline: Registered Georgia voters were selected randomly
More informationFlorida Atlantic University Poll: Clinton and Trump Poised to win Florida; Cruz and Rubio in Battle for Second.
March 12, 2016 Media Contact: James Hellegaard Phone number: 561-297-3020 Florida Atlantic University Poll: Clinton and Trump Poised to win Florida; Cruz and Rubio in Battle for Second. A new Florida Atlantic
More informationSubject: Florida Statewide Republican Primary Election survey conducted for FloridaPolitics.com
9887 4 th St. N., Suite 200 St. Petersburg, FL 33702 Phone: (727) 245-1962 Fax: (727) 577-7470 Email: info@stpetepolls.org Website: www.stpetepolls.org Matt Florell, President Subject: Florida Statewide
More informationThe 2016 Republican Primary Race: Trump Still Leads October 4-8, 2015
The 2016 Republican Primary Race: Trump Still Leads October 4-8, 2015 CBS NEWS POLL For release: Sunday October 11, 2015 10:30 am EDT Donald Trump (27%) remains in the lead in the race for the Republican
More informationConducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center
Conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center Interviews with 914 adults in New Hampshire conducted by land line and cellular telephone on January 27-30, 2016 including 409 who say they plan
More informationClinton leads all Republican challengers in 2016 presidential matchups in battleground Virginia; GOP voters divided, but Christie, Bush top pack
March 3, 2014 Clinton leads all Republican challengers in 2016 presidential matchups in battleground Virginia; GOP voters divided, but Christie, Bush top pack Summary of Key Findings 1. Hillary Clinton
More informationEmerson College Poll: Iowa Leaning For Trump 44% to 41%. Grassley, Coasting to a Blowout, Likely to Retain Senate Seat.
November 4, 2016 Media Contact: Pr. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor Spencer_Kimball@emerson.edu 617-824- 8737 Emerson College Poll: Iowa Leaning For Trump 44% to 41%. Grassley, Coasting
More informationNATIONAL: TRUMP HOLDS NATIONAL LEAD
Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Wednesday, 20, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769
More informationLikely Iowa Caucus Voters Attitudes Toward Social Security
Likely Iowa Caucus Voters Attitudes Toward Social Security Copyright 2016 AARP AARP Research 601 E Street NW Washington, DC 20049 Reprinting with Permission AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization,
More informationTrump Back on Top, Cruz Climbs to Second December 4-8, 2015
CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Thursday, December 10, 2015 7:00 am EST Trump Back on Top, Cruz Climbs to Second December 4-8, 2015 With his highest level of support yet in CBS News polls, Donald
More information2016 GOP Nominating Contest
2015 Texas Lyceum Poll Executive Summary 2016 Presidential Race, Job Approval & Economy A September 8-21, 2015 survey of adult Texans shows Donald Trump leading U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz 21-16, former U.S. Secretary
More informationCompared to: Study #2122 June 19-22, Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa 1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district
BLOOMBERG POLITICS/DES MOINES REGISTER IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY Study #2125 400 Republican likely goers August 23-26, 2015 404 Democratic likely goers 2,975 contacts weighted by age, sex, and Margin
More informationGOV. KASICH IS NUMBER ONE IN OHIO PRESIDENTIAL RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; CLINTON TIES OR TRAILS ALL REPUBLICANS
Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 535-6203 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: FEBRUARY 24, 2016 GOV. KASICH IS
More informationMarist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY Phone Fax
Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Marist Poll* 2016 Wide Open GOP Field in
More informationSanders, Trump sweep New Hampshire primary election
Sanders, Trump sweep New Hampshire primary election By Associated Press, adapted by Newsela staff on 02.10.16 Word Count 684 Republican presidential candidate businessman Donald Trump waves as he arrives
More informationTHE GEORGE WASHINGTON BATTLEGROUND POLL
THE GEORGE WASHINGTON BATTLEGROUND POLL A national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican
More informationthat changes needed to be made when electing their Presidential nominee. Iowa, at the time had a
Part I The Iowa caucuses are perhaps the most important yet mysterious contest in American politics. It all began after the 1968 Democratic National Convention protest, the party decided that changes needed
More information(212) FOR RELEASE: JUNE
Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, (203) 535-6203 Tim Malloy, Assistant Director (203) 645-8043 Rubenstein Associates, Inc., Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: JUNE 17, 2015 CLINTON,
More informationMSNBC/Telemundo/Marist Poll December 2015 National Questionnaire. Screener <Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older?
Screener Are you 18 years of age or older? HH SELECTION LANDLINE FRAME ONLY GENDER GUESS MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist Poll December 2015 National Questionnaire December 2015: Residents:
More informationQ Political Insight Survey
Q1 2016 Political Insight Bush/Clinton Political Match-Up Most Lucrative for Advertisers Strata s media buying software handles $50 billion in advertising annually, approximately 25% of US advertising
More informationAlabama Republican Presidential Primary Poll 2/26/16. None
Sponsor(s) None Target Population Sampling Method Alabama; likely presidential primary voters; Republican Likely Republican primary voters were selected at random from a list of registered voters. Only
More informationOctober 29, 2016 Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor
October 29, 2016 Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor Spencer_Kimball@emerson.edu 617-824- 8737 Emerson Polls: Clinton With Mostly Slim Leads in 4 of 5 Battleground States.
More informationAtlantische Onderwijsconferentie Republicans Abroad Netherlands 9 maart 2016
Atlantische Onderwijsconferentie Republicans Abroad Netherlands 9 maart 2016 Renee Nielsen The presidential candidates of the Republican Party and the battle for nomination Table of contents Introduction
More informationUMass Lowell/7News Daily Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Voters Release 7 of 8
Center for Public Opinion Dr. Joshua J. Dyck and Dr. Francis Talty, co-directors http://www.uml.edu/polls @UML_CPO UMass Lowell/7News Daily Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Voters Release 7 of 8 Survey produced
More informationMarist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY Phone Fax
Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll* Clinton Leads GOP Rivals, but
More informationRECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, May, 2015, Republicans Early Views of GOP Field More Positive than in 2012, 2008 Campaigns
NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE MAY 19, 2015 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS REPORT: Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research
More informationSanders is Up, GOP Race is Steady and Terrorism Worries are Back
ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: 2016 Election EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 Sanders is Up, GOP Race is Steady and Terrorism Worries are Back Terrorism suddenly rivals the
More informationNBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll. April New York Questionnaire
Residents: n=2,521, MOE +/- 2.0% Registered Voters: n=1,987, MOE +/- 2.2% NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New York Questionnaire Potential Republican Electorate: n=477, MOE +/- 4.5% Likely Republican Primary
More informationThe Battleground: Democratic Perspective April 25 th, 2016
The Battleground: Democratic Perspective April 25 th, 2016 Democratic Strategic Analysis: By Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Olivia Myszkowski The Political Climate The tension and anxiety recorded in
More information455 Democratic likely caucusgoers 1,838 active registered voter contacts. Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.
DES MOINES REGISTER/CNN/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY Study #2182 December 10-13, 2018 450 istered Republicans 503 registered Republican contacts Margin of error: ±4.6 percentage points weighted
More informationPalmetto Poll. primary voters go to the polls on June 10, finds incumbents doing well, some
Palmetto Poll The first Palmetto Poll of 2014, taken just before Democratic and Republican primary voters go to the polls on June 10, finds incumbents doing well, some unfamiliarity with candidates and
More informationPastor Views on Presidential Candidates. Survey of Protestant Pastors
Pastor Views on Presidential Candidates Survey of Protestant Pastors 2 Methodology The phone survey of Protestant pastors was conducted January 8-22, 2016 The calling list was a random sample stratified
More informationThe Iowa Caucuses. (See Attached Page Below) B R C T R B R R C C B C T T T B
Date: 9/27/2016 The Iowa Caucuses Part I: Research the Iowa Caucuses and explain how they work. Your response should be a one-page (250-word) narrative. Be sure to include a brief history, how a caucus
More informationLikely New Hampshire Primary Voters Attitudes Toward Social Security
Likely New Hampshire Primary Voters Attitudes Toward Social Security Copyright 2016 AARP AARP Research 601 E Street, NW Washington, DC 20049 Reprinting with Permission AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan
More informationIMMEDIATE RELEASE DECEMBER 22, 2014
Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 www.eagleton.rutgers.edu eagleton@rci.rutgers.edu 732-932-9384 Fax: 732-932-6778
More information2016 Presidential Election Chartbook
2016 Presidential Election Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX December 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself
More informationFOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 21, 2015
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 21, 2015 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH
More informationPresidential Race November 2 Polls. Arizona Colorado Georgia Missouri. Hillary Clinton 43% 44% 42% 37% Donald Trump 47% 41% 51% 52%
November 2, 2016 Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor Spencer_Kimball@emerson.edu 617-824- 8737 Emerson College Polls: Colorado Flips to Clinton While Trump Takes Back Arizona
More informationCase: 2:16-cv GCS-EPD Doc #: 9-13 Filed: 03/10/16 Page: 1 of 5 PAGEID #: 451 EXHIBIT 9
Case: 2:16-cv-00212-GCS-EPD Doc #: 9-13 Filed: 03/10/16 Page: 1 of 5 PAGEID #: 451 EXHIBIT 9 Case: 2:16-cv-00212-GCS-EPD Doc #: 9-13 Filed: 03/10/16 Page: 2 of 5 PAGEID #: 452 OFFICIAL DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
More informationToplines. UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of NH Likely Primary Voters
Toplines UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of NH Likely Primary Voters Field Dates: January 29 - February 2 Sample: 800 Likely Primary Voters in New Hampshire 410 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 390 Likely Republican
More informationCRUZ & KASICH RUN STRONGER AGAINST CLINTON THAN TRUMP TRUMP GOP CANDIDACY COULD FLIP MISSISSIPPI FROM RED TO BLUE
CRUZ & KASICH RUN STRONGER AGAINST CLINTON THAN TRUMP TRUMP GOP CANDIDACY COULD FLIP MISSISSIPPI FROM RED TO BLUE If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination, Mississippi and its six electoral
More informationMarist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY Phone Fax
Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC4/Marist Maryland Poll* Maryland: Trump Up 12 Points
More informationTHE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL
THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL February 29, 2016 SANDERS LEADS ALL GOP CONTENDERS IN NH, CLINTON SUPPORT VARIES BY MATCHUP By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. andrew.smith@unh.edu Zachary S. Azem, M.A. 603-862-2226
More informationSTAR TRIBUNE MINNESOTA POLL. April 25-27, Presidential race
STAR TRIBUNE MINNESOTA POLL April 25-27, 2016 Presidential race A total of 800 Minnesota registered voters were interviewed April 25-27. The selfidentified party affiliation of the respondents is 38 percent
More information(212) FOR RELEASE: FEBRUARY
Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, (203) 535-6203 Tim Malloy, Assistant Director (203) 645-8043 Rubenstein Associates, Inc., Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: FEBRUARY 3, 2015 CLINTON
More informationTopline Questionnaire
33 Topline Questionnaire 2016 S AMERICAN TRENDS PANEL WAVE 14 January FINAL TOPLINE Jan. 12 Feb. 8, 2016 TOTAL N=4,654 WEB RESPONDENTS N=4,339 MAIL RESPONDENTS N=315 9 ASK ALL WEB: SNS Do you use any of
More informationAmerican Dental Association
American Dental Association May 2, 2016 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1 Heading into the Election Year SLIDE 2 Direction of country remains strongly negative for over a decade. Right Track Wrong Direction WT 80
More informationWhat s Happening Out There
What s Happening Out There Political Scene Fall 2015 Presentation to Pacific Northwest Waterways Association By John Horvick, DHM Research October 8, 2015 Horse Race Public s Mood Economy & Labor Trade
More informationTrump Still Leads NC; Bond Likely To Pass
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 13, 2016 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF
More information1. Are you currently a resident of the United States and 18 years of age or older?
National Survey 1016 People (general population) Conducted May 28 June 4, 2014 By the Saint Leo University Polling Institute Margin of Error: +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence Some percentages may
More informationClinton could win Texas in 2016
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 31, 2013 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH
More informationMCCAIN, GIULIANI AND THE 2008 REPUBLICAN NOMINATION February 8-11, 2007
CBS NEWS POLL For Release: Saturday, February 17, 2007 6:30 pm ET MCCAIN, GIULIANI AND THE 2008 REPUBLICAN NOMINATION February 8-11, 2007 Two of the front-runners for the Republican 2008 Presidential nomination,
More informationU.S Presidential Election
U.S Presidential Election The US has had an elected president since its constitution went into effect in 1789. Unlike in many countries, the Presidential election in the US is rather a year-long process
More informationHART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #16027 -- page 1 Interviews: 800 Registered Voters, including 280 respondents with a cell phone only and Date: January 9-13, 2016 22 respondents
More information(212) FOR RELEASE: APRIL
Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, (203) 535-6203 Tim Malloy, Assistant Director (203) 645-8043 Rubenstein Associates, Inc., Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: APRIL 9, 2015 PAUL BLOOMS
More informationRUBIO FIRST IN GOP PACK, RUNS BEST AGAINST CLINTON, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; CLINTON ON TOP, BUT MOST VOTERS SAY SHE S NOT HONEST
Tim Malloy, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 645-8043 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: APRIL 23, 2015 RUBIO FIRST IN GOP PACK,
More informationConducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center
Conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center Interviews with 1,010 adults in New Hampshire conducted by land line and cellular telephone on 18-24, including 402 who say they plan to vote
More informationEagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey
Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu eagleton.poll@rutgers.edu 848-932-8940 Fax: 732-932-6778
More informationPresidential Race. Virginia Illinois Maine. Published Nov 1 Oct 13 Nov 1 Sept 22 Oct 31 Sept 7. Hillary Clinton 49% 46% 53% 45% 46% 44%
November 1, 2016 Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor Spencer_Kimball@emerson.edu 617-824- 8737 Emerson College Polls: Clinton Leads in Virginia (+4), Maine (+4) and Illinois
More informationToplines. UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Likely Primary Voters
Toplines UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Likely Primary Voters Field Dates: February 19 - February 25 Sample: 891 Registered Voters in Massachusetts 400 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 292 Likely Republican
More informationOct14f Generally available Available but limits Should not be permitted Don't know/no answer
CBS NEWS POLL 2016: A Wide Open Republican Field, While Clinton Leads the Pack for the Democrats March 21-24, 2015 CBS NEWS POLL For release Sunday, March 29, 2015 10:30 AM EDT Q15. Which comes closest
More informationClinton Lead Cut to 8% in Michigan (Clinton 49% - Trump 41%- Johnson 3% - Stein 1%)
P R E S S R E L E A S E FOR RELEASE: October 24, 2016 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Clinton Lead Cut to 8% in Michigan (Clinton 49% - Trump 41%- Johnson 3% - Stein 1%) EAST LANSING, Michigan ---
More informationELECTION OVERVIEW. + Context: Mood of the Electorate. + Election Results: Why did it happen? + The Future: What does it mean going forward?
1 ELECTION OVERVIEW + Context: Mood of the Electorate + Election Results: Why did it happen? + The Future: What does it mean going forward? + Appendix: Polling Post-Mortem 2 2 INITIAL HEADLINES + Things
More informationClinton Lead Cut in Half from August (Clinton 47% - Trump 42% in 2-way and Clinton 45% - Trump 39% in 4-way)
P R E S S R E L E A S E FOR RELEASE: September 9, 2016 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Clinton Lead Cut in Half from August (Clinton 47% - Trump 42% in 2-way and Clinton 45% - Trump 39% in 4-way)
More information2016: An Election Year to Remember. Ron Elving Senior Washington Editor National Public Radio
2016: An Election Year to Remember Ron Elving Senior Washington Editor National Public Radio Anger and Anxiety An Election Year to Remember : Ron Elving / NPR FMI / Meat Conference February 22, 2016 Nashville
More informationFont Size: A A. Eric Maskin and Amartya Sen JANUARY 19, 2017 ISSUE. 1 of 7 2/21/ :01 AM
1 of 7 2/21/2017 10:01 AM Font Size: A A Eric Maskin and Amartya Sen JANUARY 19, 2017 ISSUE Americans have been using essentially the same rules to elect presidents since the beginning of the Republic.
More informationCampaign 16. A Hawthorn Group visit with Kansas City Chamber June 24, 2016
Campaign 16 A Hawthorn Group visit with Kansas City Chamber June 24, 2016 Agenda I. The Knowns II. The Unknowns III. The Early Appeals IV. The Hard Questions Bring Down Title The Knowns It s a Big Political
More informationClinton Maintains 3% Lead in Michigan (Clinton 47% - Trump 44% - Johnson 4% - Stein 1%)
FOR RELEASE: November 3, 2016 P R E S S R E L E A S E Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Clinton Maintains 3% Lead in Michigan (Clinton 47% - Trump 44% - Johnson 4% - Stein 1%) EAST LANSING, Michigan
More informationHART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #16091 -- page 1 Interviews: 800 Registered Voters, including 280 respondents with a cell phone only and Date: February 14-16, 2016 21 respondents
More informationA Post-Primary Rally Boosts Trump, Albeit with Challenges Aplenty
ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: Clinton vs. Trump EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Sunday, May 22, 2016 A Post-Primary Rally Boosts Trump, Albeit with Challenges Aplenty A new ABC News/Washington
More informationTHE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION CONTESTS May 18-23, 2007
CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Thursday, May 24, 2007 6:30 P.M. EDT THE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION CONTESTS May 18-23, 2007 The current front-runners for their party's Presidential nomination Senator
More informationBattleground 59: A (Potentially) Wasted Opportunity for the Republican Party Republican Analysis by: Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber
Battleground 59: A (Potentially) Wasted Opportunity for the Republican Party Republican Analysis by: Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber In what seems like so long ago, the 2016 Presidential Election cycle began
More informationelection guide Primaries & caucuses debates filing deadlines conventions
election guide Primaries & caucuses debates filing deadlines conventions about quantum communications Quantum Communications is a premier communications consulting firm, with offices in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania,
More information1,107 Iowa likely voters in the 2016 general election and congressional district Margin of error: ± 2.9 percentage points
THE DES MOINES REGISTER /BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL Study #2106 1,000 Iowa likely voters in the 2014 general election October 3-8, 2014 Margin of error: ± 3.1 percentage points 1,651 contacts weighted
More information