A newspaper from Germany. Vol. 9, June/July Section A

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1 A ewspaper from Germay Vol. 9, Jue/July Sectio A I this issue Politics Froze coflict 2, 3 What does Ukraie s future look like? Ad what goals is Vladimir Puti pursuig? Dmitri Trei, Michael Stürmer ad Wolfgag Ischiger give their aswers. Iraia threat 6 Despite a uclear agreemet with Ira, the ightmare of a Iraia bomb is ot fudametally baished, wars Michael Wolffsoh. What the West also overlooks Ira is ot just a dager to Israel ad the wider Middle East. Summit fatigue? 8, 9 I Elmau, the heads of the world s seve leadig idustrial atios spet 27 hours talkig with each other. The results of the G-7 summit were poor. Theo Sommer says: The moutai i the Bavaria Alps wet ito labor ad gave birth to a mouse. Jihadi rivalry 10 The recet violet excesses of the Islamic State (IS) have diverted attetio i the West away from Al Qaeda. But it remais the more dagerous oppoet, wars Guido Steiberg. Busiess Everybody hurts 11 Ecoomic measures agaist Russia over Ukraie are also hittig Europe. Ad coutries like Chia are fillig the gap left by fallig EU exports. Germa busiess leader Eckhard Cordes calls for more politics ad fewer sactios. Ecoomic warfare 11 War is out. Ecoomic sactios are i they have the grammar of commerce but the logic of war. Mark Leoard o geopolitics of trade. No coal 13 Global warmig will icreasigly domiate the developmet of eergy markets. Climate protectio starts with reoucig fossil fuels. Stepha Kohler recommeds usig eergy more effectively. Life Party tow 14 Berli has become a playgroud for visitors from aroud the world. New York Times writer Aliso Smale says: Do t forget the history side! Past fider 15 Official Muich has ot yet dealt with its Nazi past, but the former capital of the movemet ow has a documetatio ceter. ISSN X EUR 3.90 GBP 2.70 HKD INR 220 IDR 50,000 JPY 630 KRW 5.00 LKR 630 MYR PHP 250 SGD 8.00 THB 180 USD 5.50 VND PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/HO Uder costructio: Fiery Cross Reef. Ever sice last year whe satellite imagery cofirmed that Chia was costructig artificial islads i the South Chia Sea, jouralists, security specialists ad eve govermet officials ucritically have adopted termiology that obfuscates rather tha clarifies the issues at stake. No term has bee so abused as lad reclamatio both i its everyday usage ad legal meaig. A commetary writte by Chiese academic She Digli argues that there is o prohibitio i iteratioal law about lad reclamatio. He cites the examples of Shaghai city, Japa s Kasai Iteratioal Airport, Hog Kog ad Dubai. Noe of these examples are comparable to what it takig place i the South Chia Sea. Let s be clear: Chia is ot reclaimig lad i the South Chia Sea i order to improve coditios o a lad feature a islad that has deteriorated due the impact of the eviromet or huma use. Chia is dredgig sad from the seabed ad coral reefs to create artificial islads. Chia misleadigly states it is reclaimig lad o islads over which it has sovereigty. This is ot the case. Chia The May 22 suicide attack o the Shi ite Imam Ali mosque i Easter Saudi Arabia has chaged everythig. For the first time, the Islamic State terrorist group maaged to attack a religious buildig i the coutry that is the custodia of the Muslim holy sites of Mecca ad Media ad killed 21 people i the process. This was the most serious attack o Shi ites i the history of the kigdom. The sectaria coflict fueled by the regioal powers of Saudi Arabia ad Ira for years has ow reached the heartlad of the Sui world ad raised the cofrotatio betwee the Shi ite regime i Ira ad Riyadh to a ew level. The provice of Ash Sharqiya i the easter part of Saudi Arabia, where all the importat oil facilities are located, is the kigdom s vulerable poit. Cocer that the may Saudi Shi ites livig here could act as a fifth colum for Ira has bee worryig the rulig elite aroud Kig Salma for years. Beijig s legal alchemy Chia is ot reclaimig lad, it is buildig artificial islads as forward stagig bases for its military By Carlyle A. Thayer is buildig artificial structures o low tide elevatios (submerged features at high tide) ad rocks. Chia caot claim sovereigty over these features. These features are ot etitled to maritime zoes or airspace. Artificial islads have a distict meaig i iteratioal law. Uder the Uited Natios Covetio o the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) sovereigty over artificial islads ca oly be exercised by a coastal state i its Exclusive Ecoomic Zoe (EEZ). Article 56 states, I the exclusive ecoomic zoe, the coastal State has jurisdictio with regard to... the establishmet ad use of artificial islads, istallatios ad structures Article 60 gives the coastal state exclusive right to costruct artificial islads. Ad Article 80 exteds this provisio to artificial islads o a coastal state s cotietal shelf. All seve of the features that Chia presetly occupies ad has coverted ito artificial islads are the subject of legal proceedig brought by the Philippies before the UN s Arbitral Tribual. The Philippies Notificatio ad Statemet of Claim argued that uder UNCLOS Mischief Reef, McKea Reef, Gave Reef The almost three millio followers of the Shi ite miority, o the other had, feel discrimiated by the strict Wahhabite iterpretatio of the Sui teachigs by the rulig class. I believe the govermet is resposible for the attack, said activist Nasima al Sada, who is based i the maily Shi ite city of Qatif, just a few kilometers from the village of al-qadeeh where the suicide attacker detoated his explosives. It should protect us ad ot promote sermos ad textbooks that vilify us as ubelievers. Shi ite believers have icreasigly bee the target of the govermet ad the reactioary religious police force sice the Iraia revolutio ad Subi Reef are submerged features ad both Mischief Reef ad McKea Reef form part of the Philippies cotietal shelf. Further, the Philippies argued that Scarborough Shoal, Johso Reef, Fiery Cross Reef ad Cuartero Reef are rocks uder UNCLOS. All of these features lie withi the Philippies EEZ or cotietal shelf. I summary, Chia cosiders these features to be islads i the legal sese ad therefore claims ot oly sovereigty over them but a territorial sea, EEZ, cotietal shelf ad airspace above them. The Philippies argues that these features are submerged baks, reefs ad low tide elevatios that do ot qualify as islads uder UNCLOS but are part of the Philippies cotietal shelf, or the iteratioal seabed. The issue of Chia s costructio of artificial islads has bee befuddled by three other issues. The first issue cocers Chia s attempt to eforce its jurisdictio over 12 autical miles of water surroudig these artificial islads ad the airspace above these features. Chiese law requires the promulgatio of baselie prior to the assertio of sovereig jurisdictio over maritime zoes. With the i Ideed, Saudi security forces i Qatif had to quell protests i the same year for the first time. Tesios icreased agai whe the uprisigs i the Arab world aroused hopes of political chage i a regio that is suppressed by authoritaria rulers. More tha two doze people were killed i Easter Provice i 2012 aloe whe the police suppressed demostratios i a violet maer. A Sharia court also codemed the promiet Shi ite imam Nimr Bakir al-nimr to death i the fall of There is othig ew about this policy: fears of beig ecircled by Ira have domiated the policies pursued by the royal govermet for years. Domestically, cocer exceptio of the Paracels, Chia has ot promulgated ay baselie over the features it occupies. It should be oted that all of Chia s artificial islads are located close to features occupied by Vietam. If these features were etitled to a 12 autical mile territorial sea Chia s zoe would overlap a similar zoe claimed by Vietam. The bottom lie is that all of these features are cotested ad sigatories to UNCLOS are ejoied ot to take actios that would chage the status quo. Chia s assertios of sovereig rights i these circumstaces represet a form of legal alchemy i which Chia attempts to covert submerged features ad rocks ito aturally formed islads. Chia has repeatedly challeged flights by military aircraft from the Philippies ad the Uited States orderig them to leave what Chiese military officials call a military alert area or a military security zoe. If media reports are accurate that Uited States warships have refraied from ecroachig withi 12 autical miles of the artificial islads ad US military aircraft have ot directly overflow these features the Chiese legal alchemy will have succeeded. No sig of victory The proxy war betwee Ira ad Saudi Arabia is creatig istability i half the Middle East ad will probably cotiue for years to come By Markus Bickel is primarily directed towards the cities ear the tiy islad state of Bahrai, where the Sui Kig Hamad bi Isa Al Khalifa keeps the Shi ite majority i check. Riyadh already set troops to Maama s Pearl Roudabout via the Kig Fahd Causeway i March 2011 to restrict the spread of the freedom movemet by followers there. However, protests are cotiuig, albeit at a low level, eve four years later. It is ot possible to suppress the uprisig agaist the Sui dictatorship permaetly through repressio aloe regardless of how strog the ifluece of Ira really is. The top priority for the rulig family i Riyadh has bee to curb The secod issue cocers the equivalecy of Chia s so-called lad reclamatio with similar efforts by Vietam, Malaysia ad the Philippies. Chia argues that the other claimats upset the status log ago ad Chia is oly catchig up. The critical questio is what activities have bee carried out sice 2002 ad for what purpose? The Philippies has carried out lad reclamatio o Palawa. Palawa is a aturally formed lad feature ad qualifies as a islad uder iteratioal law. The Philippies has sovereigty over Palawa ad therefore may legally reclaim lad for whatever purpose. The case of Vietam is differet. Satellite imagery of Vietameseoccupied Sad Cay ad West Lodo Reef, published by the Asia Maritime Trasparecy Iitiative (AMTI), idicates that sice 2010 Vietam has expaded these features by 21,000 ad 65,000 square meters, respectively. Does size matter? Jouralists, academic commetators ad govermet officials are quick to ote that the scope ad scale of Chia costructio dwarfs that of the other cotiued o page 4 this ifluece sice Kig Salma became ruler at the begiig of the year. The successor to Kig Abdullah, who died i Jauary, has made resistace to Ira s hegemoic ambitios the crucial chage i his regioal policy i additio to the fight agaist Islamic State, which has challeged the coutry ad its 29 millio ihabitats like o other terror orgaizatio. Not eve Al Qaeda, led iitially by the Saudi-bor Osama Bi Lade, maaged to cast doubts o the Al-Saud dyasty s exclusive claim to represet the atio i such a way as the fighters of the IS caliph Abu Bakr al-bagdadi. Dozes of IS cells have bee crushed sice it rose to become the most sigificat Sui force i Syria ad Iraq betwee Jeddah ad Dhara but the Saudis still failed to prevet the attack o the Imam-Ali mosque i al-qadeeh i May ad the Shi ite al-aoud mosque i Dammam oe week later. cotiued o page 10

2 2 Jue/July 2015 With or without Russia The task: Resolvig the Ukraie crisis By Wolfgag Ischiger The focus o the aexatio of Crimea ad the military coflict i Easter Ukraie, o the coflict with Russia, has teded to obscure the view of the secod, equally great or greater dager for Ukraiia stability, amely that of ecoomic collapse. Ukraie is facig a twofold strategic challege: that of partitio, ad that of bakruptcy. The hard truth is that either Ukraie s territorial itegrity ad political ad military security, or its log-term ecoomic rehabilitatio ca be realized while the coutry is ivolved i a sustaied coflict with its big eighbor Russia. The case of Ukraie demostrates the eed for a more sustaiable ad more comprehesive security architecture i Europe ot agaist Russia, but with Russia. At the same time, defedig agaist possible aggressio from Russia happes to be high o the ageda of may i the curret crisis. What eeds to happe to guaratee Ukraie s territorial itegrity ad to cosolidate the security architecture of the whole cotiet? I propose a dual strategy, combiig military stregth ad security ad NATO reassurace policies o the oe had, with offers of comprehesive cooperatio i the Euro-Atlatic regio o the other much as the origial Germa Ostpolitik did i the 1970s. Firstly, a clear military message remais essetial. Russia s aexatio of Crimea ad ogoig Russia support both ope ad cladestie for separatists i easter Ukraie have lead to very serious security cocers i Europe, particularly amog our eastermost NATO parters, the Baltic States ad Polad. NATO has rightly respoded with a program of political ad military reassurace. NATO s exteral borders are iviolable ad must remai so. Ad just as our NATO parters demostrated their solidarity with West Germay for more tha four decades, we must ow demostrate our solidarity with our Easter allies. This program eeds to be backed up by a reversal i the dowward tred i the defese budgets of may NATO parters. The 2 percet goal edorsed at the 2014 NATO summit i Wales should be take seriously. Equally importat are steps towards a more credible ad more capable EU security ad defese policy. Whe, if ot ow, has the time come to itroduce the priciple of itegratio, of syergies, to defese ad armamets? That would ot oly stregthe the EU s ability to act effectively, it would also sed a umistakable sigal to Moscow. Secodly what about deliverig arms to the Ukraiia military? Military support for Kiev, supportig the rehabilitatio ad democratizatio of the Ukraiia armed forces would eed to be part of a comprehesively coordiated political process because o oe will beefit from reewed escalatio of the coflict. O the other had, we should ot make a taboo out of military aid to Ukraie a defeseless Ukraie could also preset a threat to Europea security. Thirdly, the EU must advace the eergy uio, with the aim of greater diversificatio of oil ad gas imports ad a strategic reductio of depedece o Russia fuel. Fourthly, Ukraie eeds much greater fiacial ad ecoomic help ad backup. The aid that has bee agreed o with the Iteratioal Moetary Fud (IMF) will ot be eough. George Soros has let his voice to the chorus poitig this out, ad has rightly stressed that more aid from the West is of existetial importace for Ukraie far more importat tha puishig Russia with sactios. The Draghi model ca help here. Just as the Europea cetral Bak (ECB) presidet was able to calm the markets with a sigle setece, so the EU could make it clear that it will do everythig it ca to support Ukraie o its path to ecoomic recovery. Such a public statemet would create ew cofidece i Ukraie. But that aloe would ot suffice. If actios are to follow the words, it will cost moey a lot of moey which give the debate over Greece is ot likely to be a popular suggestio aywhere i the EU. But what is the alterative? Would t the follow-up costs political, military ad fiacial of a collapse of Ukraie, the EU s biggest easter eighbor, be potetially far greater? Of course, o such aid project ca be permitted to let the Ukraiia govermet off the hook regardig the reform ageda, particularly i the area of fightig corruptio. O the cotrary, the project would eed to be tied to clear progress i this area. A kid of Troika i Kiev, icludig a EU special evoy, could play a importat role i this ad i the implemetatio of the Associatio Agreemet (DCFTA). Fifthly, this is about far more tha gettig Ukraie back o its fiacial feet it is also about the coutry s civil society. I this greatest security crisis sice the collapse of the Soviet Uio, the EU ca demostrate the power of the Europea cao of values. We owe it to the youg geeratio of Ukraiias who protested o Maida Square ot agaist Russia, but agaist a corrupt Ukraiia elite, which was robbig the coutry s youth of its chace at a Europea future. These people youg jouralists reportig o fraud, juior politicias fightig epotism, NGOs promotig uderstadig ad recociliatio betwee the ethic groups are the hope for a better Ukraie, a Europea Ukraie. The EU ca do far more here, for istace, by allowig visa-free travel, creatig more grats for Ukraiia studets, ad by supportig NGOs i the coutry. That is oe side of the dual strategy reassurace by NATO parters ad comprehesive We eed a collective effort by all OSCE members icludig Russia to stregthe Europe s security architecture. help for, ad cooperatio with, Ukraie. The other side of the strategy should focus more o Russia. Firstly, the sactios must remai i place as far as ad as log as Moscow ad the separatists fail to comply comprehesively with the Misk Protocol. But obviously Kiev must also throw its full weight ito the implemetatio of the Misk deal or the sactios will lose their political purpose. We have to read the riot act to both sides. Secodly, the dispute over Ukraie s prospects of joiig NATO must be settled oce ad for all, i Ukraie s ow iterests. To be hoest, the questio of NATO membership for Ukraie was essetially aswered i the egative log ago. Oly the govermet i Kiev is still cligig oto the idea. Now, a courageous step is eeded which oly Kiev ca take. The EU could tie the comprehesive aid package proposed above to expectatios that Ukraie begi to more strogly defie itself as a bridge betwee East ad West rather as Filad, Austria, ad eve Switzerlad have doe i the past. Of course oly Ukraiias themselves ca decide to embark o such a course towards a idepedet, selfdetermied Ukraie with liks to the West ad the East. Thirdly, we eed a exit strategy from the politically uhelpful exclusio of Russia from the G-8. Give the aexatio of Crimea, the exclusio caot be reversed i the short to midterm without a loss of face for the West. Oe possible way out could be to tur the 5 plus 1 format used for egotiatios with Ira ito a much broader platform with Russia, which could address all kids of global ad regioal issues, such as Ukraie ad Syria. That would have the additioal beefit of makig Washigto a full parter agai i crisis maagemet efforts regardig Ukraie. Curretly, the US is either represeted i the Normady format or i the Trilateral Cotact Group of the Orgaizatio for Security ad Co-operatio i Europe (OSCE). That is ot i Ukraie s iterest or i the well-uderstood iterests of the EU. Fourthly, we eed a collective effort by all OSCE members icludig Russia to search for ways to stregthe Europe s security architecture. Covetioal ad uclear arms cotrol must be put back o the ageda as well as crisis prevetio ad cofidece-buildig measures. There ca be o place i Europe for military saber-rattlig, give the ever-preset uclear threat. IMAGO/PHOTOMAX Neither Ukraie's territorial itegrity ad political ad military security, or its log term ecoomic rehabilitatio ca be realized while the coutry is ivolved i a sustaied coflict with its big eighbor Russia, says Wolfgag Ischiger. Above: Carrier of a Smerch rocket i Kramatorsk, February Both sides should be iterested i reducig risks of miscalculatio ad escalatio by acceptig restraits o military overflights ad related activities. Ad visios of strategic ecoomic cooperatio also deserve attetio, harkig back to old ideas of a ecoomic zoe from Lisbo to Vladivostok. Ad fially, the OSCE which had almost bee proouced dead has demostrated its uique usefuless i the crisis, particularly with its Special Moitorig Missio to Ukraie (SMM), which works uder the most difficult coditios. What could be more obvious tha to build o the multilateral framework of the OSCE the three baskets of the Helsiki Accords i order to brig security ad cooperatio to the fore i Europe i the wake of the Ukraie disaster? It was ot impossible to get a diplomatic, political process goig eve durig the Cold War. We should propose to Moscow to restart such a diplomatic process. A OSCE coferece should, however, ot be allowed to udermie the Helsiki priciples or the Paris Charter. It should be about whether we ca work together to reaffirm ad reiforce Europea security priciples ad where ecessary, to add to them. The it is up to Moscow to say yes or o ad perhaps, if the aswer is o, to risk further isolatig itself amog the 57 participatig states i the OSCE. Wolfgag Ischiger, Germay s former ambassador to the US ad the UK, is the Chairma of the Muich Security Coferece. Four moths after the Misk II accords, the Ukraie crisis cotiues to simmer, with occasioal violet eruptios. The ceasefire i Dobass has ot preveted some 1,000 people from losig their lives sice February, addig to the previous fatality cout of more tha 5,000. Some of the heavy weapos that both sides should have pulled back from the lie of cotact are still positioed close to that lie, ad are active. Despite some techical cotacts with the participatio of both Kiev ad Dobass, political dialogue o the modalities of local electios has ot started. Kiev has balked at issuig pardo ad amesty to those it still terms terrorists. Exchages of prisoers ad hostages have take place, but some are defiitely still beig held agaist their will. Some humaitaria supplies are maagig to get through to the regio but o covoys are allowed to cross the ceasefire lies. Full restoratio of social ad ecoomic trasfers, icludig pesios ad taxes, has ot happeed. The reality is more of a tighteig ecoomic blockade. The restoratio of Kiev s cotrol of the Ukraiia- Russia border, which was supposed to begi right after the local electios ad be completed after the full political regulatio of the situatio i Dobass by the ed of 2015, has bee blocked by complete lack of progress o the political frot. There has bee o evidece of a pullout of foreig forces ad weapos ad disarmamet of illegal groups. Russia s support for the people s republics is uwaverig. Costitutioal reform i Ukraie aimed at drawig up a ew basic law for the coutry by the ed of 2015, eve if it proceeds, will go o without Dobass. This is a dismal record by ay stadard, but compared to the umerous ad highly authoritative recet predictios from Kiev, picked up i Brussels ad Washigto, of a immiet Russia ivasio, the situatio is less bad tha feared by may. Moreover, the moth of May has see some diplomatic activity betwee the West ad Russia, icludig the visits by Germa Chacellor Agela Merkel to Moscow ad by US Secretary of State Joh Kerry to Sochi. Harsh realities i Ukraie Stadoff betwee the West ad Russia as Misk II stalls By Dmitri Trei For the first time i may moths, Russia Presidet Vladimir Puti was egaged face-to-face by a seior member of the Obama admiistratio. These coversatios, particularly Kerry s, have provoked speculatios about a climb-dow from the 15-moths-old cofrotatio betwee Russia ad the West over Ukraie. This, ufortuately, is wishful thikig. The most that has bee achieved i Sochi is a degree of uderstadig betwee Washigto ad Moscow about the dagers of allowig the coflict to boil over ad potetially to wide. Both the Russias ad the Americas sought assuraces from the other party that they are ot pursuig a military solutio. The Obama Admiistratio, focusig o the presidet s foreig policy legacy, was also iterested i gettig Russia s cotiued cooperatio o the Iraia uclear issue, ad possibly also Syria ad the Islamic State (IS). The last thig Obama eeds is a coflict i Ukraie gettig out of cotrol, cofrotig his admiistratio with the risk of deeper ad more direct US ivolvemet. The Kremli, for its part, havig protected the rebel-held eclave i Dobass, is preparig ow to sit ad watch ecoomic hardship i Ukraie lead to

3 Jue/July Puti s game: Russia revache The Kremli captai is playig a log game by his ow rules: ew order or o order By Michael Stürmer Just playig aroud: Vladimir Puti i a ice hockey game i Sochi, May 16, New order or o order: This is how the participats of the aual Valdai Club meetig, high above the warm breezes of Sochi, were greeted by their Russia hosts i late October last year. It was a ote remiiscet of the worst days of the Cold War. The message to this aual meetig of diplomats, scholars, ad ex-spooks from the US ad Europe was clear. The Russias uderstad the aexatio of Crimea ad its aftermath as a turig poit from weakess to stregth, from a America-led world system to a ew competitio for global power, ad from cooperatio to cofrotatio wheever it suits the Kremli. Aoucig the great alliace with Chia is their versio of the US pivot to the Pacific. Never mid the hardship that Wester sactios iflict o the Russia people at a time of low oil prices or the strategic brikmaship the Russia commader i chief puts o display Russia uder Vladimir Puti, for better or for worse, has decided to tur the coflict over Ukraie s future ito a defiig momet i the history of the world. I a act of global oe-upmaship Puti wats to go back to time-hoored rules of geopolitics balace of power, spheres of ifluece, compesatio for losses icurred with a cotrollig stake for Russia. Puti, as he made umistakably clear i his combative prooucemet i Sochi, broadcast i full the ext day o Russia state televisio, is willig to let Russia ad the Russia people pay the price, o matter what. Eve more so, blamig the ew hardship o the West ad Wester sactios allows him to rally patriotic support for his regime at a time of austerity. This challege will ot soo go away. It will force Wester coutries ito a ew mode of realpolitik, a sizeable stregtheig of their defeses both military ad o-military, ad a coheret effort, ot ulike the policies of cotaimet iaugurated whe the World War Two trasited ito the Cold War. Much as George F. Kea, 70 years ago, argued for a patiet ad firm respose to Soviet expasioism, util oe day Soviet policy would mellow, the time has come to uderstad that the Russia leader is playig a log game. What is at stake is ot a brief momet of discomfort but a log ad streuous cotest betwee the trasatlatic way of life ad the Russia claim to set the rules. I this ew situatio the questios to guide future policies are three: How did we get ito the preset troubled state of affairs? What is at stake, ad what are the optios? Ad where do we go from here? 1. The crisis of our time Some time before the stadoff over Ukraie bega ad cofrotatio esued, George Shultz, secretary of state uder US Presidet Roald Reaga, addressed a meetig of the America Academy i Berli with a warig cocerig the future of Russia. Russia, this seasoed diplomat remarked, was like a badly wouded grizzly bear: Strog, upredictable, resetful, ad drive by a log memory. Shultz, who could ever be accused of havig too much sympathy for Russia ad its rulers, was, like Hery Kissiger, a practitioer of realpolitik who would ot forget that Russia is ever as strog as it looks ad ever as weak, ad that its strategies ad policies are ispired by stars differet from those used for guidace i the West, especially i the US. I the misery days of Yeltsi, the early 1990s, educated Russias could be heard describig their atio s state of mid i terms of Weimar ad Versailles. Russia, it seemed, was doomed, the half-hearted attempt at democracy associated with poverty ad weakess, ot much of a future was left for the heirs of the oce mighty Soviet Uio. Ayoe i a positio to abado the sikig ship did i fact leave. First to depart were the Baltic states who, after 50 years of occupatio, declared idepedece. But that was still oly a margial loss. The real break up of the Soviet Uio happeed o the last day of that aus horribilis 1991 whe all the costituet parts declared idepedece, otwithstadig their political, fiacial, ecoomic liks to what had bee the Russia ceter of power. The most importat stadard bearer i this exodus was Ukraie, with a fair share of Samuel Hutigto s Clash of Civilizatios ruig right across the coutry. Oce the Soviet Uio was goe, the Warsaw Pact followed suit. There was either ability i Russia to egotiate a ew security system, or ay willigess amog the coutries comig i from the cold to ask the Russias for permissio. I the West, ad especially i Washigto, Russia was see as a basket case. The more tha 15,000 uclear warheads of the Soviet arseal became the chief object of cocer; hudreds of them deployed i Ukraie. Nuclear arms cotrol cotiued, up to a poit. It took a ew, cooperative mode with the Nu/Lugar amedmet for joit uclear deactivatio ad, eve more importatly, the Budapest protocol guarateeig Ukraie s territorial itegrity i retur for givig up each ad every uclear warhead statioed o Ukraiia territory with the otable exceptio of the Russia-leased, Ukraiia-owed port of Sevastopol. It seemed that a lastig settlemet o the ew map of Easter Europe was uder way. The West proceeded with easter elargemet of NATO while the Russias remided Wester politicias that durig the Two plus Four egotiatios o Germa uity they were give to uderstad that i the foreseeable future the ew status quo would ot be challeged. Not a ich as Secretary of State James Baker had assured his Soviet couterpart would chage hads ad loyalty. Notwithstadig serious differeces, Moscow accepted the eastward movemet of NATO ad was compesated through the NATO-Russia Foudig Act. While the Russias had assumed that they would have a droit de regard, somethig aki to a veto over NATO policy, the view i Brussels was differet. Whe commuicatio was most eeded over Kosovo ad NATO s war agaist Serbia i 1999, the telephoe lies fell silet. Ever sice, while the oil price recovered from its historic low throughout the 1990s, Russia regaied egotiatig power ad the potetial to cause trouble. I 2007 Puti, i o ucertai terms, gave otice at the Muich Security Coferece that the time of weakess was over ad that the West had better recogize that Russia had serious grievaces. Oly oe year later, after Georgia s suicidal excursio ito disputed territory, Russia aexed South Ossetia ad Abkhazia while the West looked the other way preoccupied with drawig dow its oce mighty military wherewithal. The shape of thigs to come was loomig large. While the West celebrated the outbreak of democracy i Georgia ad Ukraie, the Kremli reseted color-revolutios ad feared cotagio, ever more so tha i 2013 o Kiev s Maida Square. I a preemptive actio, Russia aexed the Crimea peisula. Eve worse tha the breach of iteratioal law is the violatio of the Budapest Protocol of 1994 ad the challege to accepted stadards of behavior, all the way from military cofidece ad security buildig measures to well-established rules of civil aviatio. 2. Oly bad optios Ukraie is ot a sceario that would activate Article 5 of the North Atlatic Treaty. But it has the potetial to split the Wester alliace. Ay military solutio via NATO has bee excluded by the Germa chacellor. I cotrast, the America cocept of low level arms supply ad deploymet of military-techical advisors leads o a slippery slope. Ay such actio amouts to war by proxy ad, oce world power prestige is at stake, ca escalate ito more substatial military egagemet, strategic misuderstadig ad, ultimately, the threat of uclear war. IMAGO/ITAR-TASS To add fuel to the fire results oly i more casualties, more bitteress, ad more scars difficult to heal oce the hurly-burly is over. For the time beig the fightig over the Lugask ad Doetsk regios coforms to the Russia doctrie of hybrid or o-liear war. This is a war that Russia caot lose ad Ukraie caot wi. As far as the Crimea file is cocered, it ca oly be added to the log list of froze coflicts i the world, especially aroud Russia. The ma i the Kremli has ivested so much political capital that he is by ow the prisoer of his ow actios. The future of the rebel-regios i the Dobass remais much more of a ope questio. If they retur uder the jurisdictio of Kiev they will forever be a thor i the side of Ukraie, a fifth colum, icapacitatig ay authority i Kiev. But if they are ot retured to Ukraie they set a omious precedet ad cofirm the Russia claim that the Kremli is the overlord of ay former Soviet domiio. A statute of limited autoomy iside Ukraie, ad geerous help i the recostructio of those provices from he EU as well as Russia, plus a equitable settlemet of eergy supply looks like the oly chace to pacify a war tor regio. The EU s coutermeasures of choice are ecoomic ad fiacial sactios directed towards the stalwarts of Puti s regime. But while they are effectively hurtig the Russia ecoomy, they do t seem to have ay decisive impact o the powers that be. Give the Russia potetial for escalatio both vertical ad horizotal throughout the ill-defied Near Abroad, the West has resorted to fiacial ad ecoomic sactios. Sactios are measures betwee war ad peace. Therefore, time-hooured Clausewitzia rules should apply, first ad foremost the imperative to keep strategy uder the cotrol of policy. Meawhile, the problem for the West is twofold: The level of sactios was raised as far as EUuity ad ecoomic well-beig would allow, but the impact o the Russia ecoomy, while serious, failed to curb Russia policy. No further escalatio will likely chage the balace. It will oly be i the way of cooperatio where both atagoists eed it most, such as oproliferatio, arms cotrol, terrorism, drugs, huma traffickig, orgaized crime the world is still a dagerous place. 3. Ad where do we go from here? The aswer cocers both methodology ad substace. The preset dual track escalatio, military ad strategic by Russia, ecoomic ad fiacial by the West, is boud to ed i huge losses to both sides, possibly catastrophe. The demoizatio of Puti, Kissiger wars, is oly a ersatz policy. Aimig for regime chage through ecoomic sactios agaist Russia is a fatasy. It s the ecoomy, stupid is the America credo, Russia is differet. Whe the oil price recovers sooer or later this is boud to happe this will give a toic to Russia, weake the oil-depedet West ad deepe the misery of Ukraie. No time to loose. Why ot make use of formats ad istitutios that have prove their usefuless i overcomig the fault lies of the Cold War, such as the Helsiki Process or the OSCE? Cove- tioal arms cotrol is i urget eed of repair; so is uclear arms cotrol i the face of proliferators old ad ew. The NATO Russia Foudig Act is still o the statute books ad ca be revived ad put to good use. The volume should be lowere, displays of military prowess reduced to a symbolic miimum. All kids of gradstadig should be suspeded for the duratio of the stadoff. Self-restrait ad facesavig should oce agai be part of the diplomatic toolbox, icludig a sese of history, mutual respect ad commo groud. Backchaels should be used, wherever there is a chace commercial, cultural, diplomatic. The preset stadoff resembles the double crisis over Berli ad Cuba half a cetury ago. Whe the uclear superpowers wet to the brik, they saw the ashes of their ow destructio ad coverged i a ew balace of power, arms cotrol ad self-restrait. This time aroud, the stakes are as high as ever. The preset crisis may ideed give birth to a ew steady state. Depedig o the West, its egotiatig power, coherece ad leadership, a ew order may be foud, at best a rough balace, at worst a mix of cofrotatio ad cooperatio. For the time beig, we have to coted with the wisdom of Churchill: I caot tell you the future of Russia. It is a riddle iside a eigma shrouded i mystery. Historia Michael Stürmer has bee chief correspodet of the Berli-based daily DIE WELT sice social tesios ad ultimately to political upheavals overthrowig the Maida-istalled leadership i Kiev. Freezig the coflict for ow looks like the best optio for both the Uited States ad Russia. A froze coflict i Dobass is ot what the Europea Uio wats. Europe isists o full implemetatio of the Misk accords. However, it eeds to face up to the harsh realities. Dobass rebels wat a cofederal status withi Ukraie, complete with a veto o the coutry s potetial NATO membership. Kiev wats to crush the rebellio, puish its leaders ad activists, ad ed Russia iterferece i Ukraie. No compromise betwee the two seems possible. Misk II is defiitely headed for a trai wreck. Its likely failure, however, must ot be allowed to lead to a resumptio of the large-scale hostilities that we saw last summer ad witer. To avert loomig disaster, the parties to the Misk agreemet ad the Uited States eed to focus o those elemets of it which ca be implemeted: stabilizig the ceasefire; pullig back heavy weapos; ad exchagig prisoers. This meas i practice much tighter cotrol of the forces physically cofrotig each other across the lie of cotact. Russia, of course, will have to support Dobass ecoomically ad fiacially, but that burde will be light compared to the burde that others will have to carry to support Ukraie ad avert its meltdow. As for the rest of Misk II, the agreemet should be coverted ito a ope-eded diplomatic process, which might come i hady whe ad if coditios o the groud chage. Four decades after Helsiki ad a quarter-cetury after the fall of the Berli Wall, Europe has etered a ew period of isecurity. This is ot just oe crisis, however acute, which ca be resolved i short order, so that the situatio returs to ormal. Thigs will ot be fixed quickly. Behid the Ukraie crisis looms the Russia problem, which despite a umber of attempts, was ot solved by meas of the coutry s iclusio ito the Euro- Atlatic security system. Iroically, the problem ca hardly be solved by meas of Russia s exclusio from the rest of Europe; this is a recipe for a cotiued stadoff. No grad bargai betwee Russia ad the West is eve coceivable at this poit. Europea security is at a impasse. While o ew ed state of Europea security is visible at this time, thigs will likely have to play themselves out. The Baltic States ad Polad should feel safe: Russia is ot after them. New crises, however, are possible elsewhere for example i Trasistria, where the Russia-protected mii-state may be squeezed hard by Ukraie ad Moldova. I the bigger scheme of thigs, Ukraie s domestic evolutio will be of prime importace. Will the coutry fially be able to reform itself or will the coutry s elites, which have ot chaged much sice the Maida revolutio, use the coflict i Dobass as a excuse ot to? Fially, US cocers about alleged Russia violatios of the Itermediate Rage Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) might retur US missiles to Europe, so that they ca target Russia strategic assets at close rage. Should that happe, a ew Euromissile crisis will be ievitable. It may be that thigs will get worse before they get better. If so, the rather tha thikig about some grad architecture for the future, it would make more sese ow to thik about steppig away from the brik. Pathways leadig toward safer groud iclude stabilizig the situatio i Dobass; prevetig a ew crisis i Trasistria; usig cofidece-buildig measures ad direct lies of commuicatio to prevet accidets ad avoid miscalculatio. For the Uited States, Russia is ow Europe s problem to deal with. The Europeas eed to rise to the challege ad come up with a strategy of coflict maagemet, prevetio ad evetually resolutio. Their ow security depeds o it. Dmitri Trei is Director of the Caregie Moscow Ceter.

4 4 Jue/July 2015 Mischief reefs Chia s ew strategy ad its behaviour i the South Chia Sea reveal its expasioist itetios By Felix Lee The first lies soud harmless eough. I late May, the Chiese leadership i Beijig preseted a white paper outliig a ew strategy for the developmet of its armed forces. The documet speaks of active defese ad the expasio of the military for exclusively peaceful purposes. At first glace, the govermet appears still to be adherig closely to the doctrie set out by Chia s great reformer Deg Xiaopig i the early 1980s: the defese of the atio s ow borders ad coastal waters. He rejected a aggressive foreig policy. But other choices of phrase make the reader sit up ad take otice: Suddely there is metio of Chia s military presece beyod atioal borders, of a combiatio of offshore waters defese ad ope seas protectio, Ad that Chia s leadership will give greater importace to the avy ad air force first ad foremost. Accordig to the documet, these will cocetrate o both defese ad attack i the future. So what is this the? A defesive military policy, or a aggressive oe after all? A reality check of recet moths shows: it is highly likely that a mometous paradigm shift is takig place i Chiese foreig policy. It appears to be aythig other tha peaceful. The clearest evidece of Chia s ew military strategy ca curretly be see i the islad dispute curretly goig o i the South Chia Sea. Satellite images take by the US thik tak the Ceter for Strategic ad Iteratioal Studies (CSIS) shocked South Chia Sea atios at the begiig of the year. The photos, take i the area of the disputed Spratly Islads archipelago, show dozes of freighters loaded with excavators tippig sad ad rubble oto the reefs ad sadbaks, ad securig them with cocrete to create ew islads. Members of the US military are coviced that Chia is buildig, amog other thigs, a 3,000-meter ladig strip for military jets o this mamade lad. We all kow that there is o military solutio to the South Chia Sea disputes, US Defese Secretary Ashto Carter reprimaded the Chiese i late May at the Shagri-La Dialogue i Sigapore, Asia s most importat security coferece. Chia rejected criticism of its islad buildig project. Beijig simply wated to be better able to fulfill its iteratioal obligatios, such as i sea rescue operatios, disaster cotrol, marie exploratio, weather forecastig ad evirometal protectio, said Admiral Su Jiaguo, deputy chief of staff of the People s Liberatio Army, also at the Shagri-La Dialogue. He also criticized what he described as the aggressive actios of eighborig coutries. I its defese white paper, Beijig accuses several eighbors of provocative behavior, claimig that they had bee reiforcig their military presece o illegally occupied Chiese reefs ad islads. Ad, the paper cotiues, the chage i military strategy comes i respose to this. Although the reefs themselves do ot serve ay practical uses, it is thought that there are large reserves of crude oil ad atural gas beeath the seabed. But above all, the South Chia Sea is strategically importat. I the course of the rapid ecoomic expasio of Chia ad South East Asia over the past 20 years, it has i the meatime become the world s busiest maritime tradig route. More tha half of global taker traffic ow passes through these waters. The Germa govermet has also ow recogized the gravity of the situatio. Defese Miister Ursula vo der Leye, who was also preset at the Sigapore meetig, stressed that the crises i Asia were also relevat to Germay ad Europe. We live i a globalized world, i which we also create access to wealth through free trade, she said, addig that secure ad stable relatios were a prerequisite for this. Chia claims almost the etire South Chia Sea as its territory ad cites history i justificatio: the area was already uder Chiese cotrol back i the 14th cetury, says Beijig. O official Chiese maps these borders ru through regios that are practically visible from the coastlies of other coutries. All of Chia s eighbors reject this geographical perspective. Vietam, Taiwa, Malaysia, Bruei ad the Philippies view Chia s artificial islads as a aggressio. But Chia s leadership views Vietam, which is also a Commuist atio, first ad foremost as a aggressor. This is because the Vietamese are also creatig their ow islads, thereby reiforcig their ow claim to these marie territories with the support of the US. Ever sice US Presidet Barack Obama tured his attetios to the Pacific regio three years ago, tesios with Chia have bee cosiderably heighteed. But the Americas are much better at sellig their policies to the outside world. They preset themselves as reliable parters i alliaces with small atios, while Chia comes over as a bully challegig them over their territory. While US Defese Secretary Carter coceded at the Sigapore meetig that other states were also establishig outposts i the regio, he defeded these actios by sayig that Chia had goe much further, ad that it was layig claim to a much larger area PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/HO tha the others. Beijig is feelig icreasigly forced ito a corer by Washigto s policy stace. Ideed, the US takes every opportuity to eedle Chia. It regularly seds aircraft ad aval vessels dagerously close to Chiese territory, eve close to the Chiese coast, thereby demostratig that despite bolsterig its arseals o a massive scale i recet years, Chia s military cotiues to be o match for its US couterpart. I mid-may, oe such sceario was made public whe the US military took a team of CNN reporters alog o a surveillace flight over the South Chia Sea. The reporters were able to capture the momet whe the Chiese military bombarded the aircraft with threats via radio. Such activities ca lead to misuderstadigs ad accidets, a ervous represetative of the Chiese People s Liberatio Army could be heard sayig. Aalysts from the idepedet thik tak IHS Jae s are still talkig about a PR war over the South Chia Sea. But they war: military upgradig ad icreasigly bellicose verbal threats are raisig the risk of actual military egagemet. The prospect of a aval battle betwee Chia ad the US is becomig a potetial threat, they say. PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/HO Uder costructio: Johso Reef South ad Gave Reef (below). Felix Lee is Chia correspodet for the Berli ewspaper TAGESZEITUNG ad lives i Beijig. He also rus the Chia blog o ZEIT ONLINE. WIKIPEDIA/RONHJONES Spratly Islads All of the Spratly Islads are claimed by Chia, Taiwa ad Vietam; part of them are claimed by Malaysia ad the Philippies. Bruei has a maritime claim i the area. The US does ot recogize these claims ad cosiders the sovereigty of the islads to be i dispute kilometers autical miles Publisher: Detlef W. Priz Executive Editor: Theo Sommer Editor i Chief: Peter H. Koepf Seior Editor: Rüdiger Rossig Associate Editors: Klaus Grimberg, Kevi Lych Art Director: Paul M. Ker Associate Art Director: Mauel Schwartz Layout: Mike Zastrow Traslatio: Kate Abbott, Nia Coo, Amada Crai, Nicolas Kumaoff, David Strauss Foudig Editor: Bruo Waltert Maagig Director: Gudru Heize Advertisig & Marketig: Jaie Kulbrok Head of Special Editios: Raier Bielig Prited i Germay by Doga Media Iteratioal GmbH, Mörfelde-Walldorf Times Media GmbH, Berli. The Asia Pacific Times is a iteratioal registered trademark. All rights reserved. Publishig House, Editorial Departmet ad Advertisig: Times Media GmbH The Asia Pacific Times Tempelhofer Ufer Berli, Germay Tel Fax ifo@asia-pacific-times.com Publishig deadlie: Jue 29, 2015 Digital editio: cotiued from page 1 Beijig s legal alchemy claimats. Vietam s so-called lad reclamatio amouts to 1.9 percet of the area built by Chia. Noe of these commetators, icludig the AMTI, have put lad reclamatio i the South Chia Sea i proper cotext. Secretary of Defese Ashto Carter s call for Vietam to halt lad reclamatio is misguided. The litmus test is ot the extet of artificial costructio but the itet behid this costructio. Chia ad all of the other claimats are sigatories to the o-bidig Declaratio o Coduct of Parties i the South Chia Sea (DOC) agreed to i November Uder the DOC the sigatories agreed to exercise self-restrait i the coduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes ad affect peace ad stability Quite clearly oe of the lad reclamatio udertake by the Philippies or elargemet carried out by Vietam rises to the poit of complicatig or escalatig disputes ad affectig peace ad stability i the South Chia Sea. Chia s actios, o the other had, have complicated disputes. Chia s costructio of artificial islads directly subverts UNCLOS ad represets a preemptive move agaist ay decisio by the Arbitral Tribual. Chia has chaged facts o the groud ad preseted the regio with a fait accompli. Chia is already challegig the freedom of avigatio ad overflight of aval vessels ad aircraft as well as fisherme i the area. For example, there are curret reports that a Chiese warship fired at Filipio fisherme ear oe of Chia s artificial islads. Chia s costructio activities have affected regioal peace ad stability because of Chia s repeated statemets that the artificial islads will serve defese purposes. Chia has repeatedly proclaimed its right uilaterally to declare ad eforce a Air Defece Idetificatio Zoe over the South Chia Sea. A Chiese commetator has goe so far to argue Chia should cofrot Australia military aircraft flyig over the airspace above Chia s artificial islads ad if ecessary shoot them dow. Chia has reportedly ceased lad reclamatio o four of its features ad moved to cosolidate its presece by buildig piers, harbors ad multi-storey buildigs. The costructio of a 3,110 meter log ruway o Fiery Cross Reef coupled with reports that a similar airstrip will be built at Subi Reef provide the ifrastructure to support the deploymet of all types of military aircraft i Chia s curret ivetory. Suddely ad at short otice Chia ca trasform ostesibly civilia ad scietific facilities ito forward stagig bases for military operatios. The third issue relates to the impact o the marie eviromet by Chia s costructio activities. As a sigatory to UNCLOS Chia is boud to protect the marie eviromet. Chiese officials repeatedly claim that they have take ito accout the evirometal impact of their costructio activities ad o harm is beig doe. Chia s assertios are challeged by Phillipie officials as well as marie scietists. Satellite imagery clearly shows dredgig marks o coral reefs adjacet to where Chia is buildig artificial islads. No, Chia is ot reclaimig lad. Chia is buildig forward stagig bases o artificial islads for its fishig fleet, oil ad gas exploratio vessels ad maritime law eforcemet vessels. Whe Chia completes buildig its ifrastructure, icludig log rage radar, it will be oly a matter of time before military aircraft ad aval warships make their appearace. I sum, Chia has succeeded i legal alchemy by trasformig UNCLOS ito iteratioal law with Chiese characteristics. This developmet will bolster Chia s assertio of idisputable sovereigty over the South Chia Sea. Chia is slowly ad deliberately excisig the maritime heart out of Southeast Asia. Carlyle A. Thayer is Emeritus Professor at the Australia Defece Force Academy, Caberra.

5 Jue/July A isecure army O its 60th aiversary, the Budeswehr looks back at two decades of dramatic reforms. But it may have to start all over agai By Eric Chauvistré A avy frigate o a atipirate missio off the coast of Somalia lackig the ecessary helicopters for its boardig teams; a brad ew military trasport aircraft grouded i orther Germay; the G36 assault rifle that turs upredictably iaccurate whe used i hot eviromets or after exteded use i combat: i the year of its 60th aiversary, the Germa Budeswehr is hittig the headlies with reports of malfuctioig military equipmet while its strategic focus remais uclear. The techical problems with the old Sea Lyx ad the ew NH90 helicopters, with the ew Airbus A400M trasport aircraft, or with the G36 rifle are ot iheretly liked. It may eve be a coicidece that they all made the ews at aroud the same time. But the issue is highly political. Both the curret miister of defese, Ursula vo der Leye, ad her predecessor Thomas de Maizière are see as potetial Christia Democratic party cadidates for the chacellorship, oce Agela Merkel steps dow. This explais the uusual degree of attetio. The defese portfolio has always bee see as the ultimate test for ambitious politicias i Germay. Most of them failed ad had to step dow early. So far, oly Helmut Schmidt, miister of defese i the early 1970s, actually wet o to the top job. But there is more to it tha party politics ad the persoal ambitios of some idividuals. The way the shortcomigs of the Germa military are debated ad scadalized idicate that they are a welcome distractio from the still uresolved questio of what the Budeswehr s premier missio ought to be. Ad it is ot oly decisio makers i govermet ad parliamet that are kee to avoid the tough questios. There is a deep-rooted reluctace i the geeral public to discuss the future role of its armed forces what the Budeswehr should be able to do, what oe could realistically expect of it, ad what price oe would be prepared to pay for maitaiig a effective force. The reports that create the image of a poorly equipped force come at a time whe Germa defese policy ad the Budeswehr itself face tremedous challeges, both domestically ad iteratioally. First, 25 years after the wall came dow, the Budeswehr is more ucertai tha ever about its strategic purpose. Secod, Germay still has to demostrate how it will fulfill the bold commitmet made by both Ursula vo der Leye ad Foreig Miister Frak-Walter Steimeier at the 2014 Muich Security Coferece to assume more resposibility i world affairs. Withi Germay, the promise was widely uderstood or misuderstood as a appeal to boost its military egagemets. Thirdly, doubts about Germay s equipmet are particularly embarrassig because the Budeswehr, as part of the Germa Netherlads Corps, are to be at the heart of Nato s ewly established Very High Readiess Joit Task Force (VJTF), set up i respose to Russia actio i the Ukraie to deter ay attacks o the Baltic states. Give the drastically reduced stocks i arms ad vehicles, puttig the cotiget together posed a uexpectedly high challege. Fourthly, the Budeswehr has bee strugglig with becomig a professioal army that is attractive to youg me ad wome after coscriptio was suspeded i Give the dramatic demographic chages Germay faces ad its, by Europea stadards, relatively low uemploymet rate, this is a challege that wo t go away. Fially, the Budeswehr is udergoig a ofte eglected geeratioal shift. Youg officers, whose ideas of a moder fightig force were formed i Afghaista, will soo replace the old guard recruited ad traied durig the East-West cofrotatio at a time whe the Budeswehr was a much stroger ad larger force but ever seriously expected to fight a real war. The ew geeratio of officers may have a clearer idea of what combat meas ad how little the use of force may sometimes achieve, but it is also a geeratio that was deeply frustrated by the lack of public support for the Afghaista missio. The Budeswehr is firmly established i Germa society. Yet, the fact that it was ot a itrisic part of the old Federal Republic resoates i may debates util today. Whe the ew Germa army was set up i 1955, the democratic state it was to serve was already six years old. The Wiederbewaffug (rearmamet), oly te years after the ed of World War II, was highly cotroversial. To egage i missios abroad, half a cetury later the Budeswehr had to trasform itself from a army equipped with thousads of mai battle taks cofrotig a potetial Soviet attack o the Elbe river ad i the Fulda gap to a light expeditioary army fightig guerrilla forces o the Kuduz river i Norther Afghaista. A deploymet that was hailed as a shiig example of the Budeswehr as a force brigig peace, democracy or at least some sort of stability to the regio, soo tured ito a combat missio that ever gaied wide popular support back home. Icreasigly, the purpose of the Budeswehr was called ito questio. No federal govermet dared to icrease the defese budget. The maiteace of existig equipmet was beig eglected. Eve though Afghaista is hardly ever metioed i the Germa debate o the G36 assault rifle, it may i fact be more about that missio that IMAGO/UPI PHOTO Techical problems: The ew Airbus A400M trasport aircraft. about the rifle itself. Whe the Budeswehr was set to Afghaista i 2001, either political or military leaders expected a real combat missio. The troops were see as a stabilizatio force i a relatively quiet eviromet. It was ot util 2008 that Germa soldiers got ito regular combat situatios. Now that the missio i Afghaista is drawig to a ed, there is a great reluctace to egage i aother large-scale deploymet. The Budeswehr is focusig o supposedly low-risk traiig missios i Mali, Somalia, ad Iraq. Eable ad ehace is the sappy phrase created for this sort of mior missio that allows the political leadership to demostrate global egagemet. But i the face of Puti s Ukraiia challege, the Budeswehr is preparig oce agai for coflict i Europe. I a attempt to stregthe deterrece, it will reactivate some of its previously mothballed Leopard 2 taks ad is eve plaig to develop a follow-up system. But eve if this is implemeted without the usual time delays ad cost overrus i arms procuremet, it will most certaily ot lead to the thousads of taks the Budeswehr had i its stocks durig the Cold War. It is iroic that, just at a time whe the Budeswehr had successfully trasformed itself ito a expeditioary force ad demostrated that it is able to sustai a sigificat presece i a remote ad hostile eviromet, that approach is beig all but abadoed. The strategic focus is shiftig agai. Ad the questio of a appropriate role for the Budeswehr is back o the ageda. Jouralist Eric Chauvistré has reported extesively o the Afghaista coflict ad has spet time embedded with Germa Budeswehr troops servig i the ISAF missio there. place where everyoe should be safe. Servig 85 millio customers i more tha 70 coutries. At Alliaz we value a ope dialogue ad thus believe i strog trasatlatic relatioships. 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6 6 Jue/July 2015 Peace for our time? Nuclear deal or ot Ira remais a threat to the whole Middle East A uclear agreemet with Ira is i sight, fially. The ightmare of a A-bomb i the hads of the Shiite revolutioaries seems to have bee baished. Thak you, permaet members of the UN Security Coucil ad Germay. That, briefly, is the geeral impressio. Neville Chamberlai pledged peace for our time i 1938 followig the Muich Coferece with Hitler. Bill Clito similarly hailed his 1994 uclear deal with North Korea, which trashed the agreemet years ago. Barack Obama has likewise bee sigig the praises of the Lausae framework accords. The world is celebratig; oly Israel is buckig the tred. Why? I was asked to cotribute a article discussig Israel s objectios ad cocers. I have ot doe so ad will ot, as I am a scholar ad essayist, ot a propagadist for ay side. However, I certaily ca ad will discuss why the supposed bearers of peace, the 5 + 1, who have bee egotiatig for so log, have oetheless come up short. O the techical side we ca say that the plaed fial accord will make it harder for Ira to build a uclear weapo substatially so, eve, but ot structurally. As the uclear powers kew durig the Cold War betwee East ad West, ad as both Israel ad Ira kow ow: the By Michael Wolffsoh Travels more tha 2,000 kilometers: A log rage Shahab-3 is lauched durig a test i Ira o Sept. 28, use of uclear weapos (assumig both sides have them) leads to mutual assured destructio. Neither would survive. The lethal radiatio of Iraia uclear devices agaist Israel would target ot oly the Jewish state, but also Ira s allies ad cliets: the Shi ite Hezbollah militia i Lebao, frieds ad foes i Syria, which uder the Assad regime is still a strategic player o Tehra s side, ad of course the pro-iraia Hamas groups i the Palestiia territories. Eve if oe cosiders the Iraia leadership totally irratioal, this kid of couterproductive coduct would be uthikable by ay coget stadard. It makes o strategic sese. Ulike Ira, Israel has a uclear secod-strike capability. That meas, should Israel be hit by Iraia uclear weapos, it could still retaliate. Thaks to Germa-built submaries that were partly subsidized ad partly doated, Israel has the capacity. I 1991, uder the Kohl-Gescher govermet, Israel got the possibility to build a secod strike capability. Deliveries were suspeded uder Gerhard Schröder ad Joschka Fischer, but Chacellor Agela Merkel has resumed them i the course of the three successive goverig coalitios she has headed sice Despite the satisfactio that a uclear secod-strike capability might give Israel, if uclear war were to break out PICTURE ALLIANCE/LANDOV/UPI/ALI SHAYGAN/FARS NEWS AGENCY it would ot prevet Israel s destructio. This secod strike has bee called the Samso optio. Just like the Old Testamet judge Samso, a Israel facig its demise would destroy its eemies as well. The deterret effect is clear. Israel s uclear doctrie has bee based o Samso from the begiig. Its priciple, if we go dow, we take our eemies dow with us, could also be stated as: that day will ot come, because our bomb deters the eemy from lauchig his strike i the first place. At the begiig of the Yom Kippur War i October 1973, it seemed as if Israel would have to implemet the Samso optio, as a crushig defeat appeared immiet. Whe the US provided aid to Israel, the Germa govermet uder Willy Bradt ad Walter Scheel refused at first to support US policy ad therefore Israel. The substace of the Samso Optio (excludig the Old Testamet ad Judaism, of course) may also have guided the fathers of the Iraia Bomb. I the First Gulf War ( ) the destructio of the Islamic Republic by Saddam Hussei s Iraq seemed at had. I this emergecy situatio, leaders i Tehra lauched a uclear weapos program. At the time, Israel played o part i their thikig. Israel still has a uclear weapos moopoly i the Middle East. Why ot Ira the too? What works for Israel would also be good for Ira, right? Oe could also see the matter differetly, historically ad empirically. Israel has kept its uclear moopoly for decades without threateig to use it, let aloe actually pushig the butto. Libya uder Gaddafi attempted to build a uclear device util 2003 ad the stopped. Israel s air force destroyed Syria s Iraia-backed uclear arms developmet facilities i September Eve today, most Arab states feel threateed ot by the Israeli moopoly, but by the prospect of a duopoly, should Ira succeed i buildig its ow bomb. Just look at the outraged reactio of Saudi Arabia ad the Gulf states to the Lausae talks. Why would Ira seek to build a bomb if the whole eterprise seems seseless? From the Iraia viewpoit, it is aythig but. As the coflict with the Arab states progresses a ed is owhere i sight a uclear deadlock would lead to a itesified covetioal arms race. I the log term, structurally, Israel ca oly lose this race: demographically, ecoomically, ad therefore, evetually, militarily. That is the mai Israeli criticism of the uclear deal with Ira. I o way is it limited to the hawks surroudig Prime Miister Netayahu. It is, ufortuately, real. Ofte overlooked ad eve ukow i the US ad Wester Europe is that Ira threates far more states tha just Israel. Tehra s missiles curretly have a prove rage of approximately 2,200 kilometers. Some uverified reports from Wester itelligece services which are more tha occasioally wrog (see Iraq 2003) claim that Ira is workig overtime to develop missiles with a rage of 10,000 kilometers. Prove because it has bee lauched ad displayed is also Ira s satellite program. The first lauch vehicle was built i Russia. Now Ira is buildig its ow. Ayoe who ca build rockets for satellites ca also build log-rage missiles for military purposes. I the shorter rather tha over the loger term, the, Ira will have strategic ballistic missiles. It will ot eed them to attack Israel, of course. Tehra is 1,600 kilometers away from Tel Aviv. Ira s existig missile arseal is already up to that task. This meas that Ira s leaders have far more tha Israel i their sights. Why else would they be ivestig billios (that the civilia populatio sorely eeds) i middle- ad log-rage missiles ad satellite programs? To hit New York, a ballistic missile would have to deliver a uclear warhead over a distace of 9,900 kilometers from Tehra. That is the geographic sese or isaity behid Ira s missile program. The distace from Ira to Berli (3,600 km), Paris (4,200 km) ad Lodo (4,400 km) is far shorter. As soo as Ira develops itermediate rage delivery systems, it will be able to defed itself usig missile deterrece agaist tough ad sometimes cripplig EU sactios that iclude bas o oil purchases from Ira. It is high time that Germay, Europe ad the US look ot oly at the cotets of uclear, biological, chemical ad covetioal warheads, but also at their delivery systems ad the strategy that derives from Ira s missile geography, ad gauge the threat they represet. Michael Wolffsoh is Professor of Moder History at the Budeswehr Uiversity i Muich. His recet book Zum Weltfriede. Ei politischer Etwurf (O world peace. A political pla) was published i IMAGO/UPI PHOTO Buildig cofidece Implicatios of the uclear deal with Ira By Ambassador Seyed Hossei Mousavia O April 2, 2015, Ira ad the P5+1 reached a framework agreemet that esures itrusive trasparecy ad cofidece buildig measures o Ira s uclear program i retur for a liftig of all uclear-related sactios ad respectig the legitimate rights of Ira for erichmet, with cotiued talks util the Jue 30 deadlie toward a comprehesive deal. This iitial agreemet is a positive step toward edig 12 years of cotetio over Ira s uclear program. The ext few weeks will be particularly difficult, as thory techical issues are egotiated ad specific phasig out of sactios is agreed upo. While the drama over the uclear talks will cotiue for the ext few weeks util the comprehesive agreemet is reached ad goes ito effect, we have to look at the post-deal eviromet. Implicatios for Ira s uclear program for the ext te to 25 years: Erichmet: Reduce istalled cetrifuges by approximately two-thirds of about 19,000 istalled today, limitig uraium erichmet to 3.67 percet, reduce curret 10,000 kg of loweriched uraium (LEU) to 300 kg of 3.67 percet LEU ad ot to build ew facilities for the purpose of erichig uraium. Fordo facility: No erichmet at Fordo, covertig the curret facility ito a R&D ceter ad o fissile material at Fordo. Nataz facility: The oly site where Ira will cotiue erichmet with oly 5,060 IR-1 first-geeratio cetrifuges ad 1,000 IR-2M cetrifuges curretly istalled will be placed i a Iteratioal Atomic Eergy Agecy (IAEA) moitored storage. Arak reactor: Ira will ot produce weapos grade plutoium, will ship all of its spet fuel from the reactor out of the coutry for the reactor s lifetime, will ot build ay additioal heavy water reactors ad will ot have reprocessig facility. Moitorig ad Ispectios: Ira will implemet the highest level of iteratioal ispectio measures (Subsidiary Arragemet, Modified Code 3.1 ad Additioal Protocol) ad will address the IAEA s cocers regardig the Possible Military Dimesios (PMD) issues. Followig the implemetatio of the comprehesive uclear deal, the Iraia uclear file will be removed from the Uited Natios Security Coucil ad retur to the IAEA. Ira s uclear facilities followig the te to 25 year limitatios will expad i accordace to the domestic eeds of the coutry ad i close coordiatio with the IAEA. The implicatios of the uclear deal for cofidece buildig ad uclear o-proliferatio: 1. Diplomacy: Negotiatios have succeeded where coercive policy ad military threat by a uclear weapo state agaist a o-uclear weapo state have failed i resolvig a major iteratioal cocer over Ira s uclear file. 2. Stregtheig the foudatios of the No-Proliferatio Treaty (NPT): the ialieable right of sigatory states to peaceful uclear eergy ad techology while adherig to robust verificatio ad moitorig measures to esure their respective program is peaceful. The April 2 agreemet put ito place the most itrusive moitorig mechaisms i the history of o-proliferatio ad these measures will set the stage for the evolutio of IAEA safeguards i the future. 3. Cofidece buildig: Resolvig the Iraia uclear file, while alleviatig the cocers of world powers ad regioal coutries regardig its ature, scope ad aim, will ievitably help cofidece ad trust regioally ad iteratioally. 4. No-proliferatio model: The comprehesive uclear deal could become a model the Middle East ad beyod eablig the same level of trasparecy, moitorig ad verificatio to be applied to emergig uclear programs. 5. Movemet toward the Nuclear Free zoe: Tailorig the uclear deal to reflect the domestic erichmet eeds of idividual coutries ad ehaced moitorig from raw material procuremet to erichmet will also cemet safeguards to esure o fissile material is diverted toward cladestie weapos programs. Oce agai the measures agreed upo i the fial comprehesive deal will be a buildig block for the uclear weaposfree zoe (NWFZ) ad brig the otio of a WMD Free Zoe i the Middle East oe step closer. Implicatios for Ira s relatios with the West ad the regio: Ira ad the US: The uclear egotiatios betwee Ira ad the world powers has eabled a forum for Ira ad the The oly site where Ira will cotiue erichmet: Members of the IAEA ispectio team iside the Nataz uraium erichmet plat o Ja. 20, Uited States to egage o a bilateral basis at foreig miister level for the first time i over 35 years. This developmet has brought about a sea chage i havig a direct lie of commuicatio betwee the two capitals. This track could ope up the possibility of direct egotiatios ad cooperatio betwee Tehra ad Washigto over multiple theaters of coflict ragig i Afghaista, Syria, Yeme, Iraq ad istability i the Levat with icreasig efforts to couter extremism ad terrorism. Ira ad the West: relatios betwee Ira ad the West deteriorated durig the 8-year presidecy of Ahmadiejad ad followig the electio of the moderate Iraia presidet Rouhai we are fially witessig both sides comig out of their coma. The Europea powers ivolved i the uclear talks have made major strides i a short time to rectify their relatios with Ira. The key to more stable ad secure Middle East will have to iclude the Iraias at every jucture. To this ed, Ira ad Europe should take costructive steps combatig risig tred of ew terrorist groups such as IS ad Al Qaeda ad crisis maagemet i the Middle East. Ira ad the regio: The resolutio of Ira s uclear dossier could ope the door for a collective forum for dialogue i the Persia Gulf regio. The most pressig issues iclude cooperatio o resolvig the humaitaria crisis ragig o i Syria, fight agaist the spread of extremists (IS), stability of Iraq, eergy security i the Persia Gulf ad brigig a ed to hostilities i Yeme. These iitial steps could develop to evetually iclude a list of iitiatives to address regioal challeges through regioal solutios ad pave the way toward formal security cooperatio. Ambassador Seyed Hossei Mousavia is a research scholar at Priceto Uiversity ad a former spokesma for Ira s uclear egotiators. His latest book, Ira ad the Uited States: A Isider s view o the Failed Past ad the Road to Peace was released i May 2014.

7 Jue/July The fog of peace Mitigatig the messy coflicts of the 21st cetury requires political savvy By Jea-Marie Guéheo Hidig behid humaitaria goals to avoid its political resposibility? Couterterrorism operatios as a substitute for politics? UN Security Coucil durig its summit o foreig terrorist fighters i New York, Sept. 24, The migrats tryig to reach Europe give a reewed urgecy to the debate o itervetio: Ca there be islads of peace ad prosperity i a ocea of turmoil ad despair? For the last 15 years, the aswer was a resoudig o. The uprecedeted growth of UN peacekeepig operatios, which saw the umber of peacekeepers deployed icrease from a few tes of thousads to more tha 100,000, embodied a ew activism of the iteratioal commuity. Today that cofidece has bee lost. Peacekeepig is see as costly, complicated, ad high risk. Is the ivestmet i blood ad treasure worth it, whe there are so few obvious success stories? Should the priority shift to securig borders ad coductig targeted couterterrorism operatios rather tha pursuig the elusive goal of stabilizig coutries? World leaders are ot sure what to make of a decade ad a half of itervetioism, eve if they kow that oe bout of violece avoided may save tes of thousads of lives, ad more tha compesates may failures. That may be why there has bee o sharp dowsizig of UN peacekeepig. As the head of UN peacekeepig for eight years, at the time of its fastest expasio, I believe two importat lessos should be brought ito the preset debate. First, o amout of force, whether deployed by the UN, US, or NATO, ca i ad of itself stabilize a coutry. Stabilizatio is about politics. Too ofte i the last 15 years, the focus has bee o the hardware of military deploymets rather tha the software of a smart political strategy. Peacekeepers, istead of providig leverage, ca actually become a disicetive for govermets to coduct ecessary reform. That is ow the risk i Mali, where Presidet Modibo Keita, elected ad secure i his positio, sees little reaso to ope up political space ad address the may problems of his coutry. Decisive military actio has ot bee followed by a well-thought out, ad iclusive, political strategy. Secod, force ca play a critical supportig role i a political process but to do so it eeds to be applied early ad itelligetly. I Afghaista, the US-led coalitio iitially relied o warlords, abadoig Kabul ad the coutryside to militias istead of establishig a strog ad impartial iteratioal presece. Whe it became apparet that the Taliba were recostitutig, it had to play catch up. However, applyig military force as well as egagig the Taliba was much more difficult oce the iitial widow of opportuity had closed. The same ca be said of the Democratic Republic of Cogo. The UN missio there was stregtheed i respose to crises, ad it has become more robust at the time whe its political capital is exhausted. O the cotrary, a robust posture i the early days of Sierra Leoe (after a iitial debacle) ad Liberia has allowed those two missios albeit i rather less challegig cotexts to come closer to success. The Security Coucil remais ambivalet o the relatioship betwee force ad politics. The priority give to protectio of civilias partly a reactio to its abstetio at the time of the Rwada geocide ca become a diversio: the creatio a year ago of a special brigade madated to protect the populatio of easter Cogo from armed groups is ot a sustaiable respose. Civilias will be protected oly whe there is a trusted Cogolese state. The Security Coucil caot hide behid humaitaria goals to avoid its political resposibility. Nor ca couterterrorism operatios substitute for politics. I Mali, a rushed political process risks leavig out groups that may IMAGO/UPI PHOTO the be pushed ito the terrorist orbit. I Libya, a military operatio without recociliatio betwee the two mai ceters of power would most likely further fragmet the coutry. From Syria to Libya, from South Suda to Cogo, the West would like to have it both ways: usig force without puttig too may boots o the groud, ad achievig peace without riskig serious political egagemet. That wo t work. Protectig civilias from the sky has major limitatios, ad the developig coutries that provide the bulk of peacekeepig troops are icreasigly reluctat to deploy i dagerous eviromets, leavig the UN reliat o iterested parties with the risk of regioalizig war ad losig its most critical asset, impartiality. Meawhile destroyig through droe strikes the chai of commad of terrorist groups is ot a political strategy. Most coflicts ed with a egotiatio, for which you eed iterlocutors. What is eeded is a combiatio of humility, determiatio, ad political savvy. Humility, because there is a moral hazard i pursuig overambitious ad usustaiable goals of social egieerig, ad we eed to scale dow ambitios. Determiatio, because abstetio is ot a optio, ad eve limited goals require a willigess to take risks, icludig through deploymets of high capacity forces i support of UN missios. Political savvy, because peace is usually achieved through imperfect compromises that avoid a biary oppositio betwee them ad us. The fog of peace is as treacherous as the fog of war, ad it is high time for the iteratioal commuity to ackowledge that the messy coflicts of the 21st cetury caot be described ad resolved through the prism of simplistic o-political categories. Jea-Marie Guéheo is the presidet & CEO of the Iteratioal Crisis Group. Deliverig solutios. You serve the world s markets. So do we. Your top priority is that your cargo reaches its destiatio ot how it gets there. 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8 8 Jue/Ju The world is out of joit, ad there is obody to set it right. Uder the violet impact of Islamism, state structures i the Middle East ad North Africa are uravelig. Wars of religio shake up parts of Black Africa. Perilous cofrotatios are buildig up i the Asia-Pacific regio. Ad 25 years after the ed of the Cold War i Europe, armed coflict has retured to the Old World hybrid, ot total war, but violet evertheless. Old certaities have evaporated i the process: that Europe is irrevocably o the way to a ever closer uio; that the security of Europe is cetral to US strategy; that Russia o loger poses a threat to Wester atios; that the rise of Asia, especially of Chia, would play out i the ecoomic field but would ot have ay geopolitical ad geostrategic ramificatios. Challeges, crises ad coflicts spaw cofereces. The year 2015 has a surfeit of them. Three big UN summits will make headlies i the ext six moths: o fiacig developmet (Addis Ababa i July), o the follow-up to the Milleium Goals (New York i September), ad o climate chage (Paris i December). All of these subjects figured o the ageda of the G-7 coferece at Elmau. Protected by 20,000 police ad cordoed off from the world by a 16-kilometer steel fece, the leaders of the world s seve leadig idustrial atios, spet 27 hours talkig with each other. There was hardly a topic they igored: Their sherpas had formulated detailed draft recommedatios ad actio plas: for climate chage ad riddig the oceas of plastic waste, resistace to atibiotics, wome s empowermet ad work stadards i developig coutries. I outreach sessios they focused o the Islamic arc of crisis, o trade ad aid, o the lessos to be leared from the Ebola epidemic. IMAGO/FUTURE IMAGE The limits of summitry Is the G-7 still fit for purpose i a chagig geo-political ladscape? By Theo Sommer But Elmau was a amazigly depoliticized summit, dealig, as it did, chiefly with societal problems ad issues of global goverace rather tha with geo-ecoomic, geostrategic ad geopolitical boes of cotetio. Ievitably, Ukraie, Chiese assertiveess, Greece cropped up i iformal talks, but officially foreig affairs were relegated to coversatios aroud the dier table. The moutai i the Bavaria Alps wet ito labor ad gave birth to a mouse. The fial commuiqué is about as verbose as all of its predecessors ad probably equally icosequetial. Was the outcome worth the effort, the 130 millio cost ot to metio the aoyig disturbace of public order? Would t it have bee less trouble if the leaders had met o a battleship (like Roosevelt ad Churchill, or Reaga ad Gorbachev) or o a cruiselier far out i the ocea? The Süddeutsche Zeitug ewspaper dubbed the G-7 summit a superfluous ritual ad asked: What is the poit of all this uecessary osese? Summit meetigs like Elmau wo t chage the world. First of all, they are gatherigs of the like-mided. The troublemakers are ot there which makes proceedigs less irksome but also less effective. Russia s Presidet Vladimir Puti should, of course, have bee preset; disivitig him deprived Wester leaders of a opportuity to reaso with him or, alteratively, to read him the riot act. Secod, these meetigs are far too short for the pricipals to really master their brief o such a vast array of issues. Third, the summit agedas are eormously overloaded; they lack focus. Differet formats are required to re-istall diplomacy i its rightful place. Sice glamorous ad time-cosumig get-togethers like the Cogress of Viea 1814/15 (ie moths of egotiatios) or the Berli Cogress of 1878 (four weeks) are usuitable istrumets i our age of acceleratio, settig up permaet ambassadorial cofereces for the settlemet of special problems might be the best way to mitigate ad miimize the political coflicts which are pittig the powers agaist each other i Ukraie, the Middle East ad the Asia-Pacific regio. I the pre-atomic age, diplomacy had three tools: persuasio, compromise ad threat of force. The latter must be ruled out i a world i cotaiig a stockpile of aroud 70,000 uclear weapos. For the mitigatio ad miimizatio of coflicts the powers are throw back to persuasio Trilateral stroll i Elmau: Barack Obama, Agela Merkel ad Shizo Abe. ad compromise. This meas three thigs. First of all: deal with the world as it is istead of dreamig about what it should be. The, while guardig your iterests, leave o stoe utured to discover complemetary iterests that facilitate accommodatio. Fially, heed Jea Moet s advice if a problem seems isoluble, wide the cotext of your deliberatios. For the Ukraiia crisis this meas that while it is ideed importat to implemet the Highspeed 2 powerful Herrekecht TBMs for the rail lik Stuttgart Ulm. Subsectio of a 1,500 km log high speed magistrale across Europe. Hightech First Maschie i actio at Filder Tuel. Maximum safety i difficult geology requires precise tuellig techology: The covertible Herrekecht Multi-mode TBM (ø m) bores with screw coveyor or belt coveyor discharge. Highlights Cotractors: Filder Tuel ARGE ATCOST 21 / Bossler Tuel ARGE ATA Porr Bau GmbH Tuelbau G. Hiteregger & Söhe Baugesellschaft m.b.h. Östu-Stetti Hoch-ud Tiefbau GmbH Swietelsky Baugesellschaft m.b.h. Gotthard, Halladsås, Crossrail, S21: Herrekecht tuellig techology creates uique rail coectios. Pioeerig Udergroud Techologies

9 ly Misk II agreemet, it is just as crucial to attai a basic uderstadig with Puti o the future relatioship betwee Moscow ad the West. Clearly Europe ad the US must ward off further Russia ecroachmets Thus far ad o further! must be the guidelie. Presidet Puti has lied through his teeth i the face of his Wester iterlocutors, o doubt about that. Still I thik that our leaders should beware of what Edmud Burke called the total wat of cosideratio of what others aturally hope or fear. I a iterview that Vladimir Puti gave to the Italia daily Corriere della Sera o the eve of the Elmau summit, he made a umber of statemets that should be take seriously. He cosiders Misk II the oly way to resolve the Ukraiia crisis, ad he will do everythig i his power to ifluece the self-proclaimed republics Doezk ad Lugask the separatists, i Wester parlace. He deies ay itetio to recreate the Soviet empire, let aloe of attackig NATO No oe has to be afraid of Russia. Ad he put i a plug for the cooperatio of the Europea Uio ad his ow Eurasia Ecoomic Uio i the vast space betwee Lisbo ad Vladivostok. He may be lyig agai, but the West had better probe his sicerity. Let s take him at his word. I a surprisig remark about arms cotrol, uclear weapos proliferatio ad iteratioal terrorism, Puti called himself a ally of the Uited States. Actually it is hard to imagie how the turbuleces i the Middle East could be eded without Russia support. The West has o promisig military optio i its fight with the Islamic State (IS). Cotaimet of the threat emaatig from the violet fragmetatio of both Syria ad Iraq requires Russia s assistace ad ot oly Russia s. Other regioal ad global actors will have to get ivolved i the effort to crush radical jihadism, amogst them Turkey ad Ira, Saudi Arabia ad the rest of the gulf states. Most cosequetial i this cotext would be a rapprochemet betwee Saudi Arabia ad Ira, both curretly fuelig proxy wars betwee Sui ad Shia from Mesopotamia to Yeme. As log as their rivalry for regioal hegemoy rus o uabated, the Middle East will remai a crucible of violece. The Asia-Pacific regio is a differet story agai. Uder Presidet Xi Jipig, Beijig has begu to traslate its ecoomic weight The moutai i the Bavaria Alps wet ito labor ad gave birth to a mouse. ito geopolitical clout. The objective of its Oe Belt, Oe Road iitiative is to develop the old Silk Road to the Middle East ad Europe ad the ew Maritime Silk Road to the West ito itercotietal trade routes. Massive Chiese ivestmets i the ifrastructure of the coutries alog these two trade corridors have worrisome ramificatios, however for Idia, but i the loger term also for Russia. At the same time, Chia s claim to about 1 millio square kilometers i the waters of the South Chia Sea keeps tesios risig i the regio. May of the islets, atolls, reefs, shoals ad sadbars iside the ie-dash lie are also claimed by Vietam, Malaysia, Bruei ad the Philippies. Beijig has ow started to tur seve of these reefs ito artificial islads, thereby gaiig 1,500 acres of ew lad aloe this year. It is buildig ruways for military aircraft, harbor facilities for its avy, ad accordig to some reports has deployed artillery. Already the Chiese avy has begu to war off US surveillace plaes overflyig the Spratly Islads. The escalatory potetial of these actios which the Chiese call fair, reasoable ad lawful is quite frighteig. I the East Chia Sea, where Chia claims the Sekaku/ Diaoyutai islads admiistered by Japa, the US has already made it clear that it will come to Tokyo s aid i case of coflict. Regardig the South Chia Sea, the US has ot yet give a similar promise, but the risks of cofrotatio keep growig. The problem is that o security architecture exists i the regio comparable to the oe i Europe. Beijig expects the other littoral coutries to defer to its perspective; yet those coutries icreasigly seek protectio uder the US umbrella. Creatig a platform o which the Asia- Pacific atios could tackle the regio s problems would seem to be the first task of diplomacy; a security framework, that ca establish rules of the road, a code of coduct for all ad esure compliace to boot. The Arctic Coucil provides the model of a forum where all coastal states, claimats or ot, ca address the issues of commo cocer. The world would be a better place, if true diplomacy would oce agai replace gradstadig; if accommodatio were ot reflexively be deigrated as appeasemet; ad if foreig policy were drive by hope rather tha fear. As Wisto Churchill oce put it: Fear must ever be allowed to cast out hope. Theo Sommer is the executive editor of THE ASIA PACIFIC TIMES ad former editor of the Germa weekly DIE ZEIT. Steppig out of the comfort zoe Is Germay ready to assume more resposibility? Herfried Mükler defies the coutry s chagig role Yes, we re ready to lead, said Germa Defese Miister Ursula vo der Leye at the Muich Security Coferece last Jauary. Not of course with militaristic gestures, she expaded, ot by takig hold of the steerig wheel to set the course, ad ot out of the covictio that it must be umber oe i Europe. But the chaged political ad ecoomic situatio i Europe ad the world ad the o loger avoidable questio of Germay s role withi it, demads more precise aswers. This is what reowed 64-yearold Professor Herfried Mükler from Berli s Humboldt Uiversity is attemptig to do. After publishig a legthy bestseller o World War I i 2013, this sprig he preseted his latest book, Power i the Ceter. Germay s ew duties i Europe, which has bee debated i Berli s political circles ever sice. With the cocept of a power i the ceter, Mükler draws upo a idea set out by vo der Leye, who spoke i Muich of a leadership from the ceter. Criticized at the time as a platitude, i Mükler s versio the idea has bee developed ito a more determied readiess, ideed if ecessary a itegrative, but at the same time strog Germa role: It behoves the power i the ceter to hold Europe together, to couter the ew cetrifugal forces that repeatedly emerge, to break dow diverget iterests ad moderate compesatory processes, he writes. Mükler cosiders a regioal power to be somethig differet tha a world power. However, with the relatively decreasig power of the US, world order higes o the ability of several of those regioal powers to prevet or at least cotai coflicts. The book takes stock of the curret situatio ad how we have arrived here; it is a summary i cosideratio of how cocepts have bee developed over time of what it meas to be a geographical ad political ceter, ad a cautious recommedatio for Germay s future political course. I its role as a power i the ceter, Germay has udergoe various chages over the past two decades, says Mükler. Followig two rouds of the Europea Uio s eastwards expasio program, Germay has moved ito the geographical ceter of the politically composed Europe, he writes. A Europe that will remai a esemble of atios, ad will ot oe day emerge as a supraatioal Uited States of Europe. Because the US has largely withdraw from Europea security policy issues, writes Mükler: Europe must solve its problems itself, it ca o loger cout o beig take by the had ad led by the US. Mükler recommeds that Germa policies maitai the atio s ecoomic power while deployig it i a compesatory maer aimed at achievig balace; without the et cotributor Germay, o EU. Berli will have to isist o good compliace more forcefully tha i the past whe it comes to EU treaties. Domestically, whether this is a popular otio or ot, military spedig will have to exceed 1.3 percet of GDP i future ad the coutry will have to ramp up its military commitmets alog with it. Although it is especially importat for a power i the ceter to proceed with cautio i this regard, Germay ca however make a equally effective security policy cotributio by limitig the flow of refugees, a udertakig that must primarily iclude fiacial support for the Middle East ad sub-sahara Africa. I view of Germay s stregth, Mükler s recommedatios may soud reassurigly sesible ad moderate to those abroad. Withi Germay itself, the questio is beig asked whether politics ad the geeral public will be able to step out of this comfort zoe ad assume more resposibility. That would mea ot watig to be loved by everyoe aymore: We have to be cotet with beig well-esteemed ad respected, sometimes beig admired but that will have to be it. Lutz Lichteberger Herfried Mükler s groudbreakig 2004 study of The New Wars about the shift from symmetrical coflicts betwee states to asymmetrical global relatioships of force is available i Eglish. His ew book Power i the Ceter has ot bee traslated yet. AMTRON by MENNEKES. Charged with ideas. The wall box desiged for the mobility of the future. MENNEKES Elektrotechik GmbH & Co. KG Idustrial plugs ad sockets Aloys-Meekes-Str. 1 D Kirchhudem Telephoe +49 (0) 2723 / 41-1 Fax +49 (0) 2723 / ifo@mennekes.de

10 10 Jue/July 2015 Before the Iraqi terror orgaizatio kow as ISIS ad IS came to the world s attetio, it had bee fightig for almost a decade as a regioal orgaizatio of Al Qaeda. From 2004 to 2006, it called itself al Qaeda i Mesopotamia. This caused some cofusio i 2013 ad 2014, whe it became icreasigly clear that ot oly did Al Qaeda ad IS represet fudametally differet jihadist schools of thought, but whe IS bega opely to fight agaist al Qaeda ad its allies i Syria. But as early as 2004, the associatio with Al Qaeda could barely coceal the fact that this was a marriage of coveiece. Iraqi Al Qaeda ad its fouder Abu Musab al-zarqawi was ever subordiate to Bi Lade ad the Al Qaeda leadership i Pakista, but rather pursued their ow goals ad strategies, for which they wated to make use of recruits ad cash from the Gulf regio. Al Qaeda o the other had was goig through a weak phase at the time, ad the fealty of the Iraqis helped it to geerate the impressio that Al Qaeda was a etwork that spaed the globe. That the disputes emergig i 2005 did ot lead to a immediate rupture was primarily to do with the fact that cotact betwee Pakista ad Iraq was broke off ad both orgaizatios were fightig for their survival i the esuig years. It was oly whe both groupigs supported the same local jihadists i the Syria civil war that they came ito reewed cotact with each other. The coflict was overlaid with a battle for power ad ifluece ad as it progressed, it became apparet that ISIS/IS by o meas viewed itself as part of Al Qaeda, but much more as a autoomous orgaizatio that was seekig to wrest cotrol of the jihadist movemet from Al Qaeda. IS success i Iraq ad Syria made the group so attractive that umerous jihadists declared their allegiace. Just as may regioal orgaizatios joied Al Qaeda after 2001, ow IS groups have bee formig i Libya, Egypt, Afghaista ad the Caucasus, amog other places. I additio from early 2014, may voluteer fighters carried out attacks i the West i the ame of IS. May commetators believed this spelled the ed for Al Qaeda. Although Abu Musab al-zarqawi publicly joied Al Qaeda i 2004, he ever wholly submitted to Osama Bi Lade s leadership. This was already evidet i 2005, whe Bi Lade s deputy ad later successor, the Egyptia Aima al-zawahiri, wrote a letter to Zarqawi sharply criticizig his approach. The Al Qaeda leadership was especially perturbed by the brutal attacks o Shiite targets that had become a hallmark of the Iraqi group. The executio of Wester hostages i filmed decapitatios arraged by Zarqawi was also criticized. Istead of creatig a climate of horror ad fear withi the Muslim commuity with their acts of violece, said Zawahiri, Iraqi Al Qaeda should make efforts to wi the support of the populatio. But Zarqawi ad his followers did ot chage their coduct. Shortly after the death of Zarqawi i Jue 2006, they eve wet a step further by proclaimig the Islamic State i Iraq (ISI) ad demadig that other Iraqi rebel groups fall ito lie with them. This also cotradicted Al Qaeda strategy, which had relied o robust alliaces with like-mided orgaizatios first ad foremost with the Taliba ad which had succeeded i overcomig several problematic phases. Iraqi Al Qaeda formulated a leadership claim that edures to this day, but that resulted i a bitter defeat i Iraq. Faced with the ew eemy withi their ow raks, may rebels gave up the armed struggle ad allied themselves with US troops, which moved quickly to force back ISI util it appeared to have bee almost totally vaquished i But ISI survived, as a small but very strog terrorist orgaizatio. It profited from the America withdrawal that bega i 2009 ad was completed i late But eve more sigificat were the policies of the Shiite-domiated Iraqi govermet led by Prime Miister Nuri al-maliki, who used his exteded powers to eradicate Suis from the atio s political system. Late 2011 saw the start of a cocerted campaig of persecutio agaist Sui politicias ad may civilias detaied without trial i their thousads. The Iraqi govermet lost all support i Sui regios of the coutry, where ISI were icreasigly able to recruit ad operate without fear of recrimiatios. The umber of attacks ad victims steadily icreased from 2012; ISI gaied i stregth. It captured Fallujah i late 2013, followed by Mosul i Jue 2014, util large swathes of wester ad orthwester Iraq were uder jihadi cotrol. cotiued from page 1 No sig of victory As i Iraq ad Syria, where the royal family departed from its traditioal policy of checkbook diplomacy last summer ad attacked IS positios with its ow fighter aircraft, Salma is ow usig military might agaist Tehra s allies. The Saudi air force, which is commaded by his so Mohammed Bi Salma as defese miister, has bee bombardig the Zaidist Houthi rebels i Yeme sice March. Riyadh views the supporters of the liberal Shi ite movemet as followers of Ira, eve if Tehra s ifluece o the Asar Allah party ad its leader Abd al Malik al-houthi is far less tha o the Hezbollah movemet i Lebao or o Shi ite militias i Iraq. Allies of Saudi Arabia ad Ira are also facig off i Mesopotamia. The proxy war betwee the two regioal powers, which has provided additioal impetus to the sectaria coflict betwee the Shi ite ad Sui teachigs, has log sice replaced the coflict PICTURE ALLIANCE/AP PHOTO My brother, my eemy I 2013, the Islamic State bega to opely fight agaist Al Qaeda ad its allies i Syria. The two terror groups represet fudametally differet jihadist schools of thought By Guido Steiberg betwee moderate ad extremist forces, which still domiated politics i the Middle East i the glory days of the Palestiia Liberatio Orgaizatio (PLO). Why are you goig to Camp David? the Iraia Foreig Miister Javad Zarif said at the ed of May, appealig to his Saudi brothers to fid a solutio at a regioal level. We re kee o good relatios i cotrast to America, which is oly pursuig its ow iterests. However, the Arab rulers i the Gulf regio ot oly doubt this but also worry about Barack Obama s determiatio to guaratee their security i the face of Ira s expasioism. The America presidet had ivited the leaders of the Gulf Cooperatio Coucil (GCC) to his coutry estate at Camp David i the US state of Marylad. However, four of the six seats reserved for the heads of state remaied empty both the kigs of Saudi Arabia ad Bahrai ad the Sulta of The start of the civil war i eighborig Syria furthered this developmet, as ISI also celebrated successes there. The orgaizatio did ot make ay public appearaces util April 2013, but istead supported a offshoot callig itself the Nusra Frot (The Support Frot for the People of Al-Sham). The group was fouded by Syria members of ISI ad also copied the car bomb attacks of its Iraqi paret orgaizatio. But its strategy followed the guidelies of Al Qaeda. I cotrast to ISI, it very pragmatically sought out allies amog the Syria rebels i pursuit of a commo goal the topplig of the Assad regime. The evets of April 2013 showed that the Nusra Frot did ideed alig itself with Al Qaeda. Durig the previous moths, ISI leader Abu Bakr al-baghdadi had tried i vai to brig the group ito lie. I April he aouced that he was dissolvig the Syria orgaizatio ad mergig it, together with ISI, ito a ew group called the Islamic State i Iraq ad Syria (ISIS). The formatio of ISIS led to a ope coflict betwee Baghdadi ad Zawahiri. The Nusra Frot sought help from the Al Qaeda leader who issued the prompt decree that the Nusra Frot should cotiue to operate i Syria ad ISI i Iraq uder the supreme commad of Zawahiri. But Baghdadi refused to obey Zawahiri ad a power struggle bega i Syria that oly came to a temporary halt i 2014 whe ISIS/IS bega fightig Oma ad the emir of Abu Dhabi tured dow the ivitatio. They have sesed a lack of support from America for some time ad fear that Obama s rapprochemet with the Shi ite regime i Ira could udermie their security iterests. They believe that their role as the most importat regioal allies of the Uited States could be i jeopardy as a result of the positive uclear talks i Lausae, which could lead to a historic agreemet betwee Washigto ad Tehra i Viea at the ed of Jue. Their role was very secure for decades: i retur for supplyig oil, US presidets had provided protectio for the most importat tradig routes sice the overthrow of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi i Ad Washigto tured a blid eye to the suppressio of the Saudi populatio. That could all be over by the ed of this summer: The iteratioal comeback of the Islamic Republic uder the Supreme Leader of the revolutio Ayatollah Ali Khameii would ievitably create a i the orth ad east, ad the severely weakeed Nusra Frot i the orthwest of the coutry. Zawahiri threw ISIS out of the Al Qaeda etwork i early 2014, whereupo Baghdadi declared himself the Caliph of the Islamic State. This resulted i the creatio of two eemy camps locked i a bitter duel. It did ideed seem as though Al Qaeda had passed its zeith i Itesified persecutio sice 2001 had put the orgaizatio uder huge pressure, ad it was rarely able to carry out highprofile attacks o Wester targets the 2005 Lodo attacks were the last i Europe for a log while. I 2011, weak spots i the oce powerful terror orgaizatios Al Qaeda relies o allegiaces with the Taliba ad tries ot to make too may eemies at the same time. became especially apparet: the jihadists played absolutely o part at all i the Arab revolutios, because they had ever maaged to garer broad popular support. At the same time, the ruthless US droe war i Pakista was bearig fruit, edig the lives of most of Al Qaeda s top brass. The killig of Osama Bi Lade i May 2011 appeared to cofirm this tred. But by establishig regioal orgaizatios i the Arab world, Al Qaeda had sice 2002 already bee workig o safeguardig its ow survival idepedetly of the fate of the leadership i Pakista. Al Qaeda braches were set up i Saudi Arabia i 2003, i Iraq i 2004, Algeria i 2007 ad Yeme i Ad while Iraqi Al Qaeda broke away i 2013 to become a rival ad eemy, the situatio where the Arab states would icreasigly take a back seat i strategic terms. Already, the petro-dollars are uable to halt the isidious declie of the Sui dictatorships, which solely rely o repressio ad state hadouts. The triumphat progress made by Islamic State threates the stability of the Arab world from Morocco to the Gulf. Saudi Arabia s allies have bee weakeed both politically ad militarily i all the locatios where they are competig with Tehra s followers. Riyadh failed to stregthe the Sui tribes i Iraq, which are promotig the establishmet of a atioal guard to create a couterweight to the Shia-domiated army ad the militias fiaced by Ira. Like the Sui stroghold of Tikrit, Ramadi, the capital of the provice of Abar o the border with Saudi Arabia, will probably be recoquered by Shi ite popular mobilizatio forces (Hashed Shaabi), ot by state forces. The Sui allies of Riyadh o loger have a voice i the largest Iraqi provice. Yemei subsidiary ot oly tured out to be absolutely loyal to the Al Qaeda leadership, with which it maitaied close cotacts, but also assumed the role of a paret orgaizatio i the battle agaist the US. I 2009 ad 2010 it attempted to detoate bombs o trasatlatic flights shortly before the plaes laded i the US; the explosives were detected at the last miute durig e route stopovers. Al Qaeda i Yeme evetually scored a major coup i Jauary 2015: It had traied at least oe of the two attackers who murdered jouralists workig at the satirical magazie Charlie Hebdo i Paris. After 10 years, Al Qaeda had yet agai carried out a successful attack o Europea soil. IS triumphs i Iraq ad Syria ad the may attacks by sympathizers of the group i the West had almost maaged to obscure Al Qaeda s edurig stregth. This stregth will cotiue to edure. This is first ad foremost due to the group s strategy, which is more pragmatic. It is primarily focused o the battle with the West, which it aims to weake i a protracted war of attritio. Its log-term goal is also to establish a Islamic state, but it believes attempts to do this are hugely premature, because the West would today fid it easy to destroy such a state. Its strategy is much more focused o meticulously plaed, well coceived, high profile attacks such as the oe carried out i Paris, aimed at provokig a overreactio from the West or i other words: military itervetios i the Muslim world where Al Qaeda is better placed to cotiue the battle. To icrease its chaces of success, Al Qaeda relies o allegiaces with groups such as the Taliba ad tries ot to make too may eemies at the same time which explais its oppositio to IS ati-shiite violece. Nor has Kig Salma so farachieved ay of his goals o the souther flak of the kigdom either, eve after almost 100 days of air strikes agaist the Houthi, their fighters are still advacig. Yeme s Presidet Abd Rabbo Masur, who fled to Riyadh i March, has ot bee reistated ad his militias have ot maaged to decisively weake the fighters of the Asar-Allah militia led by Abdul Malik al Houthi. Not eve the massive air strikes have dispelled Riyadh s fears that Saaa could become the fourth Arab capital to be permaetly cotrolled by Tehra, followig Baghdad, Damascus ad Beirut. Saudi Arabia s parters i Lebao have bee o the back foot strategically for years. The Shi ite militia Hezbollah, supported by Ira, cotrols the army ad govermet i Beirut ad it has bee prevetig the electio of a ew presidet for more tha 12 moths. Moderate Sui groups are ot gaiig the upper had i Lebao, but the local brach of Al Qaeda, the Nusra Frot, ad Dagerous ot oly for the Middle East: Fighters of the Islamic State (IS), here i Raqqa, Syria. (This udated file photo was posted by the Raqqa Media Ceter of the Islamic State, August 2014.) IS o the other had perceives itself as beig i a world full of eemies, who must either toe the lie or be destroyed as ifidels. This applies to the US, the West as a whole, the govermets of the Arab world, the Jews, Christias, Shiites ad eve Suis who do ot share their jihadist iterpretatio of Islam without reservatio. IS supporters wat to live i a Islamic state ad have o cocers about deployig ay kid of violece to stabilize this state. IS could ejoy lastig success first ad foremost because its jihadist approach is more appealig tha that of Al Qaeda, as evideced by the iflux of foreig recruits ad the support of may small groups i the Arab world ad South Asia. But Al Qaeda s strategy is by far the more promisig, as it pays heed to its ow weakesses. A terrorist orgaizatio caot take o half the world aloe ad hope for success i such a udertakig. The differig strategies also impact upo the threat to Europe preseted by both groups. Because IS is cocetrated o the establishmet of its state, it is first ad foremost a dager to Iraq, Syria ad its eighbors. Al Qaeda o the other had cotiues to focus o major attacks i the Wester world ad has show i Paris that it ca succeed i carryig these out. It ca be assumed that its Yemei subsidiary is still plaig attacks o trasatlatic flights. This meas that i the ear future at least, it represets the most dagerous terrorist threat to Europe. Guido Steiberg is a Middle East expert at the Germa Istitute for Iteratioal ad Security Affairs (SWP). Islamic State. This is all takig place very close to Israel, which is already facig the possibility of the war i Syria spillig over to the Gola Heights. Saudi Arabia recetly lauched a ew military iitiative i the coutry that has bee wrecked by civil war for four years to topple the dictator i Damascus, who is allied to Tehra. The successes ejoyed by Sui militias i the south ad orth-west of Syria will probably oly lead to a escalatio i the power struggle with Shi ite militias ad officers from the Iraia Revolutioary Guards, who have rushed to assist the exhausted army of Bashir al- Assad. So there is o ed i sight to the Iraia-Saudi proxy war, eve if agreemet is reached at the uclear talks i Viea at the ed of Jue. O the cotrary, the coflicts i Iraq, Yeme ad Syria are likely to cotiue for a log time. Markus Bickel is the Cairo correspodet of the FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG ad the author of a book etitled Der vergessee Nahostkoflikt" (The Forgotte Coflict i the Middle East, 2011).

11 Jue/July 2015 Sectio B 11 Ecoomic sactios hurt everyoe Blockig trade does ot oly damage Russia s ecoomy. The Ukraie crisis should be solved by diplomacy By Eckhard Cordes The coflict over the future of Ukraie has become a major focus for the Germa busiess commuity s Committee o Easter Europea Ecoomic Relatios. The committee has orgaized may talks ad cofereces i Ukraie, Russia ad Germay over the past 18 moths of this ogoig crisis. It has become clear that the coflict did ot begi i Kiev or i Crimea. It is the cosequece of a profoud loss of trust betwee Russia ad the West that bega over te years ago. Both sides have grouds to self-critically examie the causes of that breakdow. Whe the Europea Uio elarged by te coutries i 2004, expadig its borders to meet the wester border of Russia, Moscow accepted it. The ew proximity would geerate immese opportuities that were obvious for both sides. The EU s ew easter border was ot iteded to be a dividig lie. Istead, it was to become more ad more permeable for people ad goods. We experieced a phase of aual twodigit trade growth ad costat growth i ivestmet. The people of the EU, Russia ad the eighborig coutries i Easter Europe, the Caucasus ad Cetral Asia all beefited. At the ed of 2003, a joit EU-Russia task force preseted a cocept for creatig a commo Europea ecoomic regio at a summit i Rome. Sice the, the cocept is waitig to be implemeted. Now, i 2015, that goal of creatig a commo ecoomic regio seems like a idea from a completely differet era. The speed with which the two ecoomic blocks are demergig is breathtakig. Mutual ecoomic sactios are acceleratig the process. I 2014 aloe, bilateral trade betwee Russia ad Germay shrak by 6.5 billio ad i the first few moths of 2015, there was aother dramatic declie of 35 percet. Compaies are puttig their ivestmets o ice ad the labor market is losig jobs because of ucertaity over the future. The ecoomically weaker coutries i Easter Europe ad Cetral Asia are sufferig most. But specialized medium-sized compaies i Germay are also i dager. Accordig to a curret Federatio of Germa Idustries (BDI) ad Deutsche Bak survey of 400 major Germa family-ru busiesses, 57 percet fear cotiued egative cosequeces as a result of the Ukraie crisis. I the eyes of the Wester world, Russia has committed a breach of iteratioal law by aexig Crimea. Will ecoomic sactios ad cacellig established dialog formats really brig us closer to a solutio to the coflict ad reder the Russia govermet more ready to compromise? Curret experiece shows there is o uambiguous aswer. While EU exports to Russia are droppig disproportioately, coutries such as Chia, South Korea, Taiwa ad Switzerlad have filled the gaps. Last summer, Russia ad Chia fially shook hads o the comprehesive gas deal they had bee usuccessfully egotiatig for the past te years. I May of this year, it was aouced that Chiese baks pla to support Russia compaies cut off from the capital markets by the Wester sactios with loas of up to $25 billio. Siemes has bee workig for years to try ad lad the order for the Moscow-Kaza high-speed trai, but Chiese compaies are ow realizig the project. These are oly three strikig examples of a tred that could lead to a log-term chage i the ecoomic ad therefore, political architecture. The Germa ecoomy, the approximately 6,000 Germa compaies that have ivested more tha $20 billio i Russia, did ot cause the political crisis that is curretly takig o dramatic proportios. Over the past te to 15 years may have ivested private capital i this market. These compaies are rightly demadig that the political problems be solved by diplomatic meas ad ot at the expese of their work. Russia s total lad area, icludig the Asia part, is four times larger tha the total area of the Europea Uio. With each severed busiess cotact ad each ivestmet ot made, the potetial for Germa ad Europea ifluece shriks. Without Russia, it will be difficult to develop a secure, prosperig Europe. Agaist Russia, it will be practically impossible. But Russia i tur eeds the West as a parter to achieve stable ecoomic developmet. Germay bears a historical resposibility to esure that this ecessary partership is (oce agai) recogized by the EU as well as Russia. At the height of the Ukraie crisis, Berli comprehesively lived up to that special role for which the Germa busiess commuity is very grateful. The Normady format egotiatios i Misk i February 2015 showed that it pays to stubborly remai o the path of diplomacy. We Germas are still heard i Moscow. The Misk II agreemet, which came about due to the persoal commitmet of Germa Chacellor Agela Merkel ad Foreig Miister Frak- Walter Steimeier, has opeed up the prospect of a peaceful solutio. Ad there are sigs that the Germa govermet s diplomatic teacity is bearig further fruit. The battles i the easter part of Ukraie are still goig o, but their umber has declied sigificatly. The lives of may people have bee saved. Ad ow that four joit task forces o the subjects of security, the political process, humaitaria issues ad ecoomic developmet have bee set up, there are bodies i which the coflictig parties ca iro out their differeces over how to implemet the Misk protocol. Whether it was wise of the EU to rule out liftig the sactios util Misk II has bee completely implemeted is certaily ope to debate. O the oe had, implemetig the agreemets does ot oly deped o Russia. There are two other parties the Ukraiia govermet ad the separatists that have a sigificat impact o its success. Ad the EU o loger has the opportuity to iitiate a positive stimulus i the peace process by revokig the sactios step by step. O the other had, the EU Commissio is ow i the process of critically reviewig its ow strategy with regard to Easter Europe ad Russia. This is a positive result. The cosultatio mechaism o this poit was iitiated i March. Policy papers issued by EU Commissioer for Europea Neighborhood Policy Johaes Hah ad EU foreig policy chief Federica Mogherii poit i the right directio. I have two key thoughts o the subject: 1. Russia is a geopolitical factor. It must be itegrated ito the Europea Neighborhood Policy. 2. The visio of a joit ecoomic regio from Lisbo to Vladivostok must be revived. The first MA8/FOTOLIA step i that directio must be prepared i joit discussio betwee the Europea ad Eurasia ecoomic commissios. Russia cosidered the NATO accessio of several Easter Europea coutries a direct geopolitical challege. More so, the lauch of the EU Easter Partership iitiative targeted at six former republics of the Soviet Uio i The Europea Uio overlooked that Moscow sees a direct lie from plaed EU associatio agreemets with some of the Easter Partership coutries, to EU membership ad NATO itegratio. Moscow cosiders NATO membership a direct threat to Russia atioal security. The EU should have built up trust, acted more trasparetly with regard to the program ad goals of the Easter Partership ad take Russia misgivigs ito cosideratio ad dispelled them at a early stage. It is importat to do this ow, i retrospect. The agreemets aimed at calmig easter Ukraie that were cocluded i Misk o Feb. 12, 2015 iclude trilateral talks betwee the EU, Russia ad Ukraie. Eergy issues ad airig Russia misgivigs about the EU free trade treaty with Ukraie will be o the ageda. It would make sese to istitutioalize this meetig betwee the EU, Russia ad the Easter Partership coutries as a forum for solvig crises ad i geeral, prevetig them. All the coutries i the Easter Partership, icludig Ukraie, have oe thig i commo: it is ot oly ratioal for them to maitai relatioships with both the EU ad Russia, but is also oe of the oly optios for stabilizig the coutries tor by ier tesio. This is why there should ot be a either-or decisio betwee itegratio ito the EU market or membership i the Eurasia Ecoomic Uio. A EU associatio agreemet with Ukraie ca oly be successful if Ukraie does ot lose the importat Russia market as a result. Ad this is why the Germa busiess commuity s Committee o Easter Europea Ecoomic Relatios has log called for direct talks betwee the Eurasia Ecoomic Uio ad the Europea Commissio o joit trade stadards, certificatio regulatios, ad customs regulatios. Ufortuately, there is o political cotact betwee the two istitutios at this time. However, i February they agai achored the visio of a joit humaitaria ad ecoomic regio from the Atlatic to the Pacific i the acillary agreemets to the Misk protocol. The Germa chacellor has emphasized this visio several times, most recetly durig her visit to Moscow o May 10. We hope that the debate o this subject will fially take off. Ogoig talks are the oly meas of emergig from the curret political ad ecoomic coflict ad crisis mode. We do everythig we ca to support this effort from the side of the Germa ecoomy ad we all kow that this process of commuicatio ad recociliatio will take time. But everyoe kows that every jourey begis with the first step. Eckhard Cordes is the chairma of the Germa Committee o Easter Europea Ecoomic Relatios, represetig Germa busiess. I the uclear talks with Ira, the timig of whe ad how to lift the ecoomic ad fiacial sactios has emerged as the mai stickig poit. The fact that sactios have played the starrig role i these egotiatios will ot surprise ay observers of recet US foreig policy. For the Obama admiistratio, sactios are the ew droes offerig devastatigly effective but surgical itervetios without ruig the risk of havig to sed i groud troops. However, the log-term legacy of Wester sactios goes beyod the questio of Ira s uclear program. The proliferatio of the use of sactios poses bigger questios about the global ecoomic system. As liberals predicted, globalizatio allowed states to come together. But the growig iterdepedece created by globalizatio has also provided states with the tools to compete more effectively by maipulatig their depedece o oe aother. I fact, the ever-growig use of sactios is a example of the rise of geoecoomics a cotest defied by the grammar of commerce but the logic of war that risks uravelig the global system ad its istitutios. Those who believed that geopolitics was dead, that major powers would rather do busiess tha fight each other, will be Ecoomic warfare Sactios are the ew droes they have the grammar of commerce but the logic of war By Mark Leoard disappoited. Geopolitics is ot dead, it oly chaged the battlefield for today s strategists ad diplomats choosig their weapo of choice: It s the ecoomy, stupid! Five treds are challegig globalizatio: First, the outbreak of ecoomic warfare. There is as much talk i Wester capitals today about sactios policy as about trade towards Ira, towards Russia towards Syria, sactios are the order of the hour. With every year after the Cold War, there have bee more. Betwee 1990 ad 2007 aloe, ecoomic sactios were used by the US, Greece, Russia, the UN ad EU, Chia, Germay, Belgium, Frace, Saudi Arabia, Eglad, the Netherlads, Spai, Japa, the OAU ad ECOWAS, Mercosur, ad Turkey. I part this is a cosequece of the icreased sophisticatio of sactios. Sactios used to be broad, aimed at the populatio, which was expected to revolt agaist their govermet. Moder sactios are smart they target specific idividuals, groups or compaies. Treasuries ad foreig offices aroud the world are workig o ever-more sophisticated fiacial istrumets. The secod developmet challegig the curret order is the geopoliticisatio of trade. Rather tha creatig a sigle global market, we are seeig the comig together of regios cocetrated aroud large powers, i particular the EU, US, Russia ad Chia. A surge of regioal ad bilateral trade talks ca be observed across the world. Russia is promotig the Eurasia Ecoomic Uio i its ear-abroad ad Chia pushes for the Regioal Comprehesive Ecoomic Partership ad agaist the rival US Tras-Pacific Partership. Smaller states fid themselves i the middle of this, forced to choose betwee competig great powers spheres of ifluece. These ew types of regioalism ofte stregthe major regioal powers at the expese of the periphery. Third, we are witessig the rise of state capitalism. Eve before the global ecoomic crisis, Chia s ecoomic success story led may to questio the liberal ecoomic cosesus. With the crisis, the state has retured as a major player i ecoomic affairs. US ad Europea cetral baks are pursuig quatitative easig, ad more ad more idustry sectors from yoghurt productio to IT are beig declared strategic ad their busiesses protected. Fourth, ew alliaces are beig forged through ad aroud ifrastructure projects. Where classical Wester alliaces were built aroud trade, the removal of trade barriers ad iteratioal law, Chia is developig ifrastructure fiace projects as a major foreig policy tool. I late 2013, Chiese Presidet Xi Jipig aouced the Oe Belt, Oe Road project that will lik Chia to Bagkok ad Budapest (the belt ) ad develop the Eurasia coast (the maritime road ). This is just oe example of the type of ifrastructure projects aimed at expadig Chia s access to raw materials ad export markets. Globalizatio also faces a challege from the maipulatio of commodity prices. The world was shocked whe Chia used its domiat positio i the rare earths market to puish Japaese compaies for their atioal govermet s stace o territorial issues i the East Chia Sea. More recetly, some aalysts have claimed that Saudi Arabia s decisio to keep the oil price low was as much a geopolitical decisio as a ecoomical oe. Commodities used to be cosidered a stable store of value durig times of broader ecoomic ucertaity they are t aymore. The ew ecoomic reality is oe of commodity price volatility this is uiversally bad ecoomic ews. These five treds pose real challeges to globalizatio, ad risk to evetually uravel the global ecoomic system that developed after the Cold War. Ecoomics is ot simply about growth ad uemploymet aymore. It has become a core foreig policy tool. But whe govermets use it too much, they could make the system seem ureliable ad treacherous ad thus ecourage other powers to hedge agaist it, which would further udermie the system. Mark Leoard is Director of the Europea Coucil o Foreig Relatios ad oe of the authors of the EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY SCORECARD 2012 (

12 12 Jue/July 2015 Boomtow Berli: The sciece ad techology park i Berli-Adlershof, home of te o-uiversity research istitutes ad some 1,000 busiesses. IMAGO STOCK&PEOPLE Berli is poor, but sexy. With this sloga, the last mayor cast his city as a brad. But Berli was sexy log before Klaus Wowereit. Ad ot i the least bit poor. Oe thig it certaily was, was iovative. Whe Thomas Ediso illumiated the first office high-rises i New York i 1882, Berliers were strollig alog Leipziger Straße beeath 36 electrically powered arc lamps. The first subway ra i Scherig supplied the world with medicatio to treat gout ad isomia, Borsig built locomotives ad other machies for the whole of Europe. AEG, Alliaz, Siemes, Deutsche Bak, Korr Bremse, Lufthasa ad Osram are all Berli compaies. Betwee the wars, four out of every 10 people workig i the Germa electro idustry worked i Berli, dubbed Elektropolis at the time. Other robust sectors: mechaical egieerig, steel costructio, vehicle maufacturig, the iro, steel ad metalworkig idustries, costructio, cosumer goods, textiles. Berli had itellect: Albert Eistei worked here. Ad art: expressioist paiters such as Erst Ludwig Kircher chaged perceptio ad style i Berli before World War I. Ad politics: Philipp Scheidema declared the first republic o Germa soil i Berli. Ad of course sex: I the 1920s, Berli was oe of the sauciest places to party i Europe. I short: Berli was busy. Berli was wired. Berli smelled of sweat Resurrected from the ruis Berli was a rich idustrial city, before it suffered the cosequeces of the Nazi war. 25 years after the fall of the Wall, the capital is back o its feet By Peter H. Koepf ad champage. Ad the came the Nazis ad the torch processios, which Berli paiter Max Lieberma commeted o thus: I ca t eat as much as I d like to throw up. The city has oly bee poor sice The Allies i Yalta had agreed that all Germa weapo factories should be destroyed. May of those were based i Berli, ad Comrade Stali kew o mercy: Of course Germay Smart City caot be allowed to retai its heavy idustry, he said. So the Red Army seized compay accouts ad pludered factories. Betwee May ad Jue 1945, Russia commados seized aroud 2,000 machies with a total weight of aroud 11,000 tos. The Wester allies also claimed the right to reparatios util I the ed, 460 plats had bee broke dow, almost all of them right dow to the last Berli is a laboratory for future solutios. All uiversities, research istitutes, techology sites ad compaies such as Siemes ad Bosch will joi forces to work o urba future techologies, to make the city eve smarter. Specifically: Berli will serve as a referece city for attempts to develop a self-drivig car. The trasport system will be remodeled to make it more evirometally friedly ad socially sustaiable, the search for a parkig space 30 percet of all traffic! made easier usig a app. Electricity will be derived from gree sources, public buildigs give a eergy overhaul usig itelliget processes. That s the smart city that the CEO of busiess developers Berli Parter, Stefa Frazke, is hopig for. He ivites idustry represetatives to lear from ad i Berli, i particular also for Asia megacities: I Berli they ca gather experiece o a smaller scale ad use them as a referece for the etire world, he says. Cisco has chose Berli as its traiig ad developmet ceter ad set up its iovatio ceter for the Iteret of Everythig i Berli. switch or i other words iclusive of supplies, semi-fiished ad fiished goods. Ad the came the blockade of 1948/49: The cady bombers may have flow material ito the city for maufacturig at Siemes & Halske ad 6,000 tos of fiished products out, but the iflated trasport costs remaied eve oce the blockade had bee lifted. Withi just a few years, 900 other compaies relocated Wired their operatios to wester sectors, hudreds relocated idividual corporate divisios, wester Germa compaies closed their Berli braches. By the ed of 1950, oe i every four jobseekers could t fid work. The damage is irreparable, says ecoomics historia Johaes Bähr. Siemes will always remai i Muich, ad Deutsche Bak i Frakfurt. Alog with the big compaies, the workforce also Berli already had electric cars i Siemes-Schuckert, for example, preseted the Electric Victoria i Top speed: 30 km/h. Rage: 60 kilometers. Oly 50 were built. Or the Slaby-Beriger (picture) built i 1919 especially for the war wouded. The siglepasseger car weighed just 180 kilograms with battery cars were built by A origial Slaby-Beriger, formerly the property of Buckigham Palace, is ow o show at the Germa Museum of Techology i Berli. Berli is ow followig o this traditio: Brose is the oly Germa maufacturer of electric motors for bicycles, Berli is testig startup Ubitricity s idea of chargig electric cars from street lamps. The Berli-Bradeburg regio aims to be see as a iteratioally recogized pioeer i the electromobility sector by the year PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/ MAURIZIO GAMBARINI tured its back o Berli, above all people with qualificatios: Ayoe with career aspiratios wet to the West. That was Berli s greatest loss: huma capital, says Bähr. But ow, 70 years after the ed of the war, huma capital is returig. Berli is drawig thousads of youg creatives from Spai, Italy ad Israel, start-ups are tryig out ew thigs, the spirit of the coutry s late 19th cetury Grüderzeit has retured. Berli is the start-up metropolis of Europe, says Stefa Frazke, CEO of Berli Parter for Busiess ad Techology. We brig startups ad idustry together i the capital thereby likig the best of two worlds: the digital kowhow of youg compay fouders ad the log-term market experiece of established idustry. Evidetly with success: over the past year, Berli has collected much more tha 1 billio veture capital for startups i techology ad digital media, almost as much as Lodo, which is still Europe s frotruer i this sector. Almost 90 percet of ewly-fouded compaies create a market iovatio. Oe i every eight ew jobs arises i the digital sector. Corelia Yzer, Seator for Busiess, Techology ad Research believes that as a ivestmet ad iovatio locatio for atioal ad iteratioal compaies, Berli is more attractive tha ever sice reuificatio. The Germa capital ca agai compete o a level playig field with other metropolises, she says. Chacellor Agela Merkel defeded the policies of the Europea Cetral Bak (ECB). At the Day of the Germa Family Busiess i Berli o Jue 12 she said a strog euro would make it difficult for coutries like Portugal ad Spai to reap the beefits of their extesive reform efforts. Referrig specifically to exports ad high uemploymet rates, Merkel said she appreciated the ECB askig: what ca be doe whe the iflatio rate is still so low? The Germa chacellor said it was the ECB s madate to make sure we do t eter a deflatioary spiral. She was respodig to a speech by Bru-Hage Heerkes, the chairma of the Germa Foudatio for Family Busiesses, i which he called for a more stable commo currecy. A stable euro requires us to put a ed to the ECB s ulawful actios, he said, a referece to the ECB s cotetious bodbuyig program. Oly the will we be able to ed the cotiuig march towards a weak currecy, replace the ti euro ad revive the strog euro, Heerkes said. The Europea Court of Justice, the EU s top judicial body, ruled Jue 16 that the bod-buyig pla complies with Europea law. Merkel also defeded the plaed trasatlatic free trade agreemet TTIP, curretly beig egotiated betwee the EU ad the US to the approval of the assembled busiess leaders. Chacellor defeds ECB Agela Merkel tells meetig of Germa Foudatio for Family Busiesses that bak has madate to ward off deflatio STIFTUNG FAMILIENUNTERNEHMEN/WERNER SCHUERING (2) Referrig to oe of the more cotroversial issues surroudig the plaed pact, the harmoizatio of guidelies ad regulatios. Europea stadards are i fact ot always higher tha those i the US, Merkel said. She said she felt it was more importat that two ecoomic regios could use the agreemet to set stadards for the etire world. As a cosequece Europe ad the US would be ahead of the game. The chacellor also wared agaist too much reluctace i dealig with customer data. Despite data protectio, icreasig digitalizatio will chage our lives, Merkel said. Compaies at the itersectio of cosumer ad product who collected data would have a better uderstadig what products customer wated, she said. There is competitio i this area. Compaies that are too cautious, will ot profit from the creatio of value i the future. Former Frech Presidet ad guest of hoor Nicolas Sarkozy also spoke. He praised the members of the Family Busiess Foudatio for ot beig solely focused o makig the biggest profits: If the people would uderstad that capitalism ad a market ecoomy are ot primarily tools for the iterests of traders ad hedge fuds, ot meat to uwid compaies, cash out ad move o, but a type of ecoomy where freedom ad resposibility go had i had, we would have more propoets of a free market ecoomy i Germay, i Frace, all over the world, Sarkozy said. Left: A-list guests at the Day of the Germa Family Busiess at the Hotel Adlo i Berli o Jue 12: (left to right) Presidet of Bulgaria Rosse Pleweliew; Robert Lidema-Berk, member of the board of trustees of the Foudatio for Family Busiesses i Germay; Chacellor Agela Merkel ad Stefa Heidbreder, maagig director of the Foudatio for Family Busiesses i Germay. Nicolas Sarkozy (right) ad Bru-Hage Heerkes.

13 Jue/July The days of coal are umbered Climate protectio starts with reoucig fossil fuels ad usig eergy more effectively By Stepha Kohler The iteratioal eergy markets, particularly oil ad atural gas, have developed i a iterestig way over the past few moths. A declie i the price of oil to $50 per barrel was icoceivable eve a short while ago, although a oil price above $50 was cosidered absolutely detrimetal to the global ecoomy at the begiig of this Chia has already siged logterm eergy supply agreemets with Ira. Russia will icreasigly supply Chia with oil ad gas too, ot least because of the Wester ecoomic sactios as a result of the Ukraie coflict. This competitio betwee Europe ad Asia for eergy sources will icrease. Future climate protectio policy will be crucial for the The Iteratioal Eergy Agecy (IEA) has demaded the followig i its World Eergy Outlook: CO 2 emissios amoutig to approximately 30 gigatos (GT) i 2010 must be reduced to 22 GT by the year This would require a major reductio i the use of fossil eergy sources. Coal would have to be replaced first, as it geerates the highest CO 2 emissios whe Iovative solutios for the highest IT security requiremets. Attacks o computers ad etworks are o the rise. Cyber crime ad data theft have dramatic cosequeces ragig from eormous ecoomic damage to loss of image ad customers. Years of work ca be destroyed i miutes. Rohde & Schwarz supports govermet, society ad busiess with IT solutios ad ecryptio techology made i Germay. Esure your security at: The days of coal are umbered. A brow coal power statio i Schkopau, Saxoy-Ahalt. IMAGO STOCK&PEOPLE/RAINER WEISFLOG cetury. However, the price of oil has always bee subject to major fluctuatios. I November 2001, a barrel cost about $17; the price rose to a maximum figure of $147 i August 2011; it had falle to $35 by December 2008 ad the exceeded the $100 threshold agai durig These fluctuatios ofte cause huge social ad ecoomic damage, either for the oil-producig atios or for cosumer coutries. Both oil suppliers ad customers had adapted to a price of about $100 for more tha three years ad had accepted that it would remai at this level. With this high price, the suppliers of atural gas ad coal also had reliable markets ad a good reveue situatio, reewable eergy sources were ecoomically more attractive ad may coutries decided to adopt major subsidy programs to reduce their depedece o fossil eergy sources ad meet goals desiged to protect the climate too. However, oil ad eergy prices are ot stable. They are subject to may iflueces: global ecoomic growth ad its structure, political iterferece (e.g. how OPEC behaves), wars ad civil wars (e.g. Iraq, Libya), sactios (Ira), evirometal disasters (hurricaes), the developmet ad use of ew drillig techiques like frackig or those desiged to tap ito deposits out at sea or i Arctic regios. Liquid atural gas (LNG) is also expected to exert a major ifluece o the iteratioal atural gas markets, where similar tradig coditios could be created to those goverig the oil market i.e. global trade, which does ot deped o pipelies. This is particularly iterestig for Europeas, who hope that they ca reduce depedecy o Russia for imports of atural gas through pipelies by switchig to LNG. This was the reaso why the speech by Iraia Eergy Miister Bija Namdar was eagerly awaited at the Eergy Security Summit held i Berli i May Ira is oe of the world s coutries with huge atural resources ad it has cosiderable deposits of oil ad atural gas. How will Ira behave after the liftig of Wester sactios? Namdar made it very clear that Ira will ot costruct ay pipelies to Wester Europe ad LNG exports will target markets with the highest price levels i.e. ot Europe, but Asia. ogoig developmet of eergy markets. Germay ad Europe pla to reduce their CO 2 emissios by 40 percet ad 20 percet respectively by the year 2020, although Germay is shuttig dow all its uclear power plats at the same time. At their Elmau Summit, the G-7 agreed to reduce CO 2 emmissios by 40 to 70 perecet by It will therefore be iterestig to see what is agreed at the World Climate Coferece i Paris i the fall. If delegates adopt ambitious climate protectio goals for the whole plaet, it will be ecessary to reduce the use of coal to a sigificat degree i the future. These kids of political decisios agaist the use of coal have a effect o the eergy mix ad they would trigger greater demad for oil ad atural gas. The fiacial markets are ow havig serious misgivigs about the cotiued use of coal, too. The Norwegia State Fud has decided to o loger ivest i corporatios that are ivolved i the coal busiess. Oil ad gas coglomerates are supportig a global CO 2 levy to protect the climate i the ru-up to the coferece. It is coceivable that climate chage will icreasigly domiate the developmet of eergy markets. The major focus is o the use of fossil eergy sources. They are believed to be resposible for the growig umber of storms with their eormous potetial to do damage, hurricaes ad torados with wid speeds previously ukow (350 km/h) ad the itese ad log-lastig disasters caused by drought ad periods of extreme heat, ot least i the US ad Idia. Foresight is better tha combatig damage; may coutries caot afford the latter ayway. The poorest people i the world suffer the most. The world caot afford to allow this to happe. Climatologists geerally agree ow that the average global temperature must ot be allowed to rise by more tha 2 degrees Celsius by the year This goal provides a reliable basis for determiig ad itroducig a future climate ad eergy strategy. The coutries attedig the climate coferece i Paris should reach a agreemet o this. There is a eed to fially defie a clear developmet path for global CO 2 emissios. beig coverted ito eergy. However, coal is almost always cheaper tha oil ad atural gas, it is available aroud the world ad it will be so for several hudred years to come. This also helps esure reliable supplies. The CO 2 emissio goals ca also be achieved by higher degrees of eergy efficiecy ad eergy savigs, accordig to the IEA s World Eergy Outlook, but this would oly create half the ecessary reductios i CO 2 by the year Therefore, the highest priority should be give to itroducig these efficiecy goals. Ca these efficiecy goals be achieved through a global CO 2 levy, with higher eergy prices that lead to greater savigs? This is oly true to a certai extet. Expertise, techology ad capital are all required to achieve efficiecy potetial. Those ivolved ofte lack the ecessary capital ad the expertise. It is therefore ecessary to itroduce a program for developig eergy efficiecy i additio to ay global CO 2 levy. This meas ivestmets i traiig, providig ivestmet fuds ad developig iovative eergy services. This will ope up ew busiess opportuities for eergy corporatios ad create skilled jobs aroud the globe. This efficiecy strategy will mea a fall i demad o the fossil eergy markets ad therefore greater pressure o prices or fallig prices. The CO 2 levy is therefore essetial i order ot to jeopardize the cost-effectiveess of efficiecy measures. However, the CO 2 levy will ot help orgaize the switch i eergy sources from coal to atural gas; the price differeces are simply too high. The CO 2 levy will ot placate eergy markets overall either, although fallig demad might reduce depedecy o fossile fuels ad their market domiace. Eergy efficiecy is particularly importat so that ay icrease i demad for atural gas ad oil triggered by climate policy does ot trigger risks regardig eergy supplies or eergy prices that are o loger acceptable. Climate policy must ot create a situatio where developig coutries o loger have ay ecoomic prospects. Stepha Kohler is the maagig parter of EergyEfficiecyIvest-Eurasia GmbH ad a member of the committee of the World Eergy Coucil with a focus o Germay. SITGate L500 Next Geeratio Firewall SITLie ETH Ecryptor

14 14 Sectio C Jue/July 2015 The former o ma s lad has become the party zoe of Berli: Visitors at the Mauerpark ( Wall Park ) coectig the Berli districts Prezlauer Berg (former East) ad Weddig (former West). IMAGO/SNAPSHOT Cosmopolita ad democratic The Germa capital has become the political ceter of Europe agai, sigifyig a ew chapter i the city s storied past By Stefa Aust The post-wall party tow Berli has become a playgroud for millios of visitors from aroud the world. But remats of its darker past are still visible By Aliso Smale You re still aware of it, but you ca hardly imagie it aymore, eve though some remats of the wall remai as a remider. Oly whe the trai drivers go o strike agai ad the trais all grid to a halt, you fid yourself logig for Tempelhof ad PaAm ad the short flights out of the walled-i city. Ad whe they strike agai, you hope for a ew airlift, at least util the preset-day luatics retur to their seses. Otherwise Berli is just a city agai, loud ad shrill, ufiished ad glitzy ad full of tourists ad migrats from all over the world, old ad ew federal states ad those parts of the world that are eve poorer ad much less sexy tha the ew Berli. A metropolis, almost as large as it used to be, before the wars, whe the world still appeared to be i imperial order ad yet fragile, because rulers met the challeges ad crises of the ew era with old methods. Here o the Spree, a aive Emperor allowed himself to be dragged ito a devastatig war by his bureaucrats ad military strategists, supported by croies ad relatives o the throes of eighborig coutries, the revolutio was declared here, this was the area for battles betwee Spartacists ad Nazi paramilitaries, the place where Hitler celebrated his takeover, where he paraded his troops, before they attacked Europe, here the bombs raied dow util o stoe remaied attached to aother. The Cold War bega here. It also eded here, whe the Wall fell oe ight i November. Uexpected by all those who are sposored with edless taxes as a way of foreseeig political developmets. As log as the Bradeburg Gate was closed, sealed off o the wester side with a elegatly curved, meter-thick wall, the Germa questio remaied ope. Richard vo Weizsäcker brought history ito sharp focus o this poit. Ad Willy Bradt, who as Mayor of Berli had to look o, agry ad powerless, as the Wall was built, could hope that what beloged together would ow grow together. Ad that was t just divided Germay. The fall of the Wall also allowed Europe to grow back together, easter ad wester Europe. Ad agai, Berli was right i the middle. A ceter, a bridge betwee East ad West. Where a woma from East Germay could become oe of the most ifluetial political figures of the West, where Europea history was ad is still beig writte by peaceful meas. Perhaps a cotiuatio of the cociliatory policies of a Bismarck, who always kew that politics is t just about drillig through thick boards, but also about balacig these. But eve that is ot without risk. A policy of equaimity ca become a seesaw policy, short-term tactics ca udermie log-term strategy. Those who o loger kow where they stad ca suddely ed up where they did t wat to be. The Berli Wall served as a magifyig glass to track the Cold War arrative. To this day, agai as though uder a magifyig glass, Berli s govermet quarter brigs global lies of coflict ito stark relief. For example, i ivestigative committees, above all i oe, the committee charged with sheddig light o the activities of the NSA i Germay. All lies coverge here: how much should a coutry allow itself to be spied o by Big Brother US, how close must their cooperatio be i the fight agaist Jihadists, what data should be passed o, what do we get for it, what should be revealed ad what ot, whe are we still a ally, whe are we just a stooge ad to what extet have we distaced ourselves from the alliace i the meatime? Paris, Brussels, Lodo, Washigto, Moscow, Beijig, Jerusalem, Erbil ad ot least Athes they are all sedig their evoys to Berli providig for movemet i politics ad gridlock i the govermet quarter. There are few other capitals i the world where politics ad the public sphere are so close, where politicias, lobbyists ad jouralists, busiess maagers ad artists rub shoulders to such a extet, day by day, ight by ight. A hadful of restaurats serve as commual waterig holes for Germa ad foreig politicias, with Hollywood stars ad state premiers, Germa ad Europea parliametarias, secret service agets ad former US presidets sittig cheekby-jowl at their diig tables to the astoishmet of some foreig observers. Here, the traditioal political class is beig eroded bit by bit. I some way it is cosmopolita ad democratic, the ew Berli, ad that s quite somethig after a history such as this. Stefa Aust has bee publisher of the ewspaper DIE WELT sice Berli i may ways, it is fittig that Berli played host to the UEFA Champios League fial at the begiig of Jue eve with o Germa team participatig. Not oly is Germay the curret holder of the World Cup. Not oly was the atioal celebratio of the victorious team held i Berli, at the Bradeburg Gate. But it was Germay s, ad Berli s, hospitality ad happiess at hostig the 2006 World Cup which decisively put the ewly imagied capital of reuited Germay o the tourist map. Berli is the most visited urba tourist destiatio i Germay. Foreig visitors totaled some 4.5 millio last year. Foreig overight stays have icreased from 7.45 millio i 2009 to some 12.5 millio last year. O ay give weeked, a multitude of laguages is heard as youg people from all over roam Berli i search of its legedary techo, or simply a good time. The lack of a Sperrstude, or closig time, i may bars has log give Berliers a reputatio as ight owls. Now the rest of the world jois i! Behid these figures ad images lurks a cosiderably more somber, murderous past. Today, Berli may seem relaxed, tolerat ad ope to may. But remiders of the times whe this was ot so are everywhere. Walk aroud the circle ecompassig the Victory Pillar i the lush Tiergarte you ca t fail to miss the giat statues of Bismarck ad military me resposible for the Prussia victories the pillar commemorates. Go from there alog Jue 17 Street to the Bradeburg Gate ad you will see the Soviet memorial, complete with T-34 taks, that Stali made sure was built i 1945 to stamp o Germa ad Allied mids the Soviet part i defeatig Nazism. Speakig of Jue 17, that is a referece to the day i 1953 whe workers i Commuist East Germay rebelled agaist the Staliist system istalled by Germas ad their Soviet allies. If you go to Wilhelmstrasse at the corer of Leipziger Straße, a little southeast of the Bradeburg Gate, you will see a photo exhibit ad placards markig the protest, which was quickly crushed by Soviet taks ad largely lost i memory util this ope-air display was mouted o the 60th aiversary i Ad that exhibit i tur opes a door ito yet more deadly history. For it is mouted o oe corer of a buildig which today is the Fiace Miistry, but started life i the 1930s as the Air Force miistry built for Herma Görig, the No. 2 to Adolf Hitler. Eve the it seems, war must have bee part of the Nazis calculatios. Uder the bulky miistry oce the largest office buildig i Europe Görig had giat bukers. Apparetly, he aticipated havig to use them, as the Thousad Year Reich crumbled uder the Allied assault o Berli ad Germay i This massive buildig ot much harmed was first the seat of Soviet admiistratio, the of a East Germa That availability of space was a key factor i Berli becomig a creative hub. assembly that proclaimed that zoe s costitutio i 1949, ad evetually the seat of several East Germa miisteries. As you face its mai etrace, the 1953 display is to your right. O the left had side of the buildig, ear a still stadig sectio of the grim Berli Wall ( ) is a display chroiclig how oe East Germa family used the House of Miisteries to lauch a (successful) bid to escape over the Wall. Opposite that display, i tur, is the Topography of Terror, a detailed exhibit of how the Nazis rose, took power ad fell. Visitig it properly takes several hours, so perhaps it is somethig for a future visit. Ayoe who wats more remiders of Nazi terror ca go to the Jewish Museum ad/or walk to the earby Holocaust Memorial adjacet to the Bradeburg Gate. It is a idescribable moumet, ot uiversally loved, but its labyrith reflects the loss of orietatio, values or a straight path forward that a moder visitor ca oly imagie as a small part of what millios of Europea Jews edured e route to their destructio. For a detailed feel of the Wall, it is well worth it to make the jourey to Berauer Straße, where a large ope air display shows the divisio of the city at a poit where houses themselves formed part of the Wall. Here, hudreds of people succeeded i jumpig or tuelig free; scores died i the attempt. Voice recordigs of people ivolved from escapees to jouralists ad other cotemporaries ca be heard at special listeig posts all alog the oe kilometer site. Opposite the ope display are two glass houses with more exhibits. Why dwell o all this? Because it forms the essetial backdrop to today. After 1989, whe first Commuist govermets i Polad ad Hugary, ad the the Berli Wall ad East Germay crumbled, a great sese of opeig was felt across cetral ad easter Europe. Evetually, the Soviet Uio itself collapsed. While the ed of the Cold War was swiftly proclaimed, ad much has chaged irrevocably i the quarter-cetury sice, the eormity of evets i 20th cetury Europe was such that they defiitely were ot eradicated, either physically, or from mids. I Berli, which sprawls over a area ie times the size of the arrodissemets of Paris, there is space eough both to recall those evets, ad to build somethig ew. That availability of space ad abadoed buildigs was a key factor i Berli becomig a creative hub, a force to attract ayoe with a idea to realize to try to do it here, a cheaper cosmopolita ceter tha ever more expesive places like Lodo or New York. If all this seems heavy, that is because it is much easier to fid what is light ad you ca celebrate that you are here for a Europea sports happeig that 30 years ago could ever have bee such a citywide, cosmopolita evet i Berli. Ejoy pedalig the mobile bike beer bars up ad dow the streets of the ceter. But look aroud at what you see, for all those buildigs, moumets ad eve the empty spaces represet blood ad treasure spilled ad spet i ad for this extraordiary city, so that today it ca preset itself i the eviable light of beig whole, ad free. Aliso Smale is the Berli bureau chief of THE NEW YORK TIMES.

15 Jue/July Facig up to the past Official Muich has ot yet dealt with its Nazi past, but the former capital of the movemet ow has a documetatio ceter By Peter H. Koepf Rome, Mecca ad Moscow. For Adolf Hitler, they all embodied a worldview. The Führer also wated this kid of symbolic place for his movemet, a poit of idetificatio ad a cathedral for celebratig the political religio called Natioal Socialism. Of course his choice was Muich, the city where the Nazi party, the NSDAP was established ad our movemet witessed the first blood sacrifices. As Hitler phrased it: The city must become the Moscow of our movemet. The blood sacrifices were the 16 me who lay dead o the square i frot of the Feldherrhalle loggia after Hitler s dilettatish coup ad a shoot-out with the police ad Imperial Army o November 9, O that day, they had marched from the Bürgerbräukeller taver to the tow ceter with Hitler, former field marshal Erich Ludedorff ad thousads of other heavily armed Nazis. I a beer hall the day before, Hitler had fired a bullet ito the ceilig ad declared the atioal revolutio. The revolutio was postpoed, but i 1925 after a short, cozy stay i Ladsberg Priso Hitler was able to celebrate the reaissace of the NSDAP i Muich. After major electio victories throughout the empire, a jump i the umber of members (by 1931: 430,000) ad doatios from baks ad idustry, he moved ito the ew party headquarters. The Brow House seemed like a foreig body i the quiet, well-todo district of Köigsplatz Square. O the roof of our ew home, o oe of the most attractive squares i Muich, our symbol is flyig to the joy of our followers ad the distress of our oppoets, crowed the party media. Two years later, the Nazis had take cotrol. The NDSAP acquired dozes of buildigs i the surroudig streets for their party orgaizatio, icludig the Nuciature - the diplomatic missio of the Vatica - ad the house of Jewish mathematics professor Alfred Prigsheim, Thomas Ma father-i-law. The district was trasformed ito a Nazi showplace. Köigsplatz Square had bee a gardelike area with two museums, the Glyptothek ad the State Atiquities Collectios i Muich, ad the Propylaea gate o the west side. Hitler had it coverted ito a huge square where year after year, the Nazis could rally to coduct their gigatic memorial, requiem, ad resurrectio services. 21,545 graite tiles measurig 99 x 99 cm each, two-thirds of them 5 cm thick ad the rest 10 cm thick, covered the square after costructio was completed i Not a blade of grass was visible. O the east side of the square, which had bee ope util the, they built two Temples of Hoor the altars of the Natioal Socialists political religio o the axis to the Brow House. Next to them, the large party buildigs, the Führer Buildig ad the admiistrative buildig o the Prigsheim property, domiated the skylie. From that time o, Köigsplatz Square was a Mecca for practicig Natioal Socialists ad the Temples of Hoor were the atioal shries of the Germa people. Twety fluted colums towerig 7 m ito the sky were arraged o two 21-meter-wide limestoe pedestals. The colums supported a ope roof built of steel ad cocrete. Etched glass mosaics decorated the uderside. Each temple housed eight sarcophagi with the corpses of the 16 martyrs from November Durig a mythical two-day ceremoy, Hitler had brought his dead comrades to their fial restig place. Twelve years after the attempted coup, o Nov. 7, 1935, the 16 bodies were exhumed ad take to the Feldherrhalle, escorted by SA storm troops. After the pallbearers ceremoiously carried the caskets Rallyig place ad pilgrimage destiatio for practicig Natioal Socialists: Köigsplatz Square i the former capital of the movemet. I the backgroud, the two Temples of Hoor, behid the left oe, the Brow House where the Nazi documetatio ceter is located today. IMAGO/EPD Muich was Adolf Hitler s city. I Muich, he paited his pictures, his party was bor ad matured i Muich, i Muich the Nazis celebrated their bizarre political religio, ad the city ejoyed beig called the capital of the movemet. After 1945, Muich swept this reality uder the carpet. The city was siletly ashamed of its Nazi past ad successfully avoided buildig a ceter for documetig Muich s Natioal Socialist history. O May 1, 2015, Muich fially dedicated its Nazi documetatio ceter. It occupies the place of the formed NSDAP party headquarters, directly o Köigsplatz Square. If you hurry, you ca take advatage of the free admissio period from Tuesday-Suday (10 a.m.-7 p.m.) util July 31, up the massive steps, the crowd struck up the Horst Wessel sog: Flag high, raks closed, / The SA marches with silet solid steps. / Comrades shot by the red frot ad reactio / March i spirit with us i our raks. That morig, Muich was awakeed by a 16-gu salute. The Nazis had gathered agai at the Bürgerbräukeller taver to commemorate the ifamous march to Feldherrhalle of From 1935 owards, the old comrades ad the party members exteded the warlike demostratio, edig their march at Köigsplatz Square. Julius Streicher led the silet processio. Behid him were three me bearig the Blutfahe (literally, blood flag), a relic salvaged from the 1923 street battle. Hitler was flaked by vetera fighters ad followed by members of his Blood Order, SA ad SS troops, Hitler Youth, ad paramilitary troops accompaied by the mootoous beat of marchig drummers. Tes of thousads of spectators stood alog the route lied by a A detailed study, published by foudig director Wifried Nerdiger: Muich ad Natioal Socialism, published by C.H. Beck, 624 pages, 38 Euro. A short ad crisp book, recommeded by The Atlatic Times: Mike Kopleck: Muich from the series Past fider. Traces of Germa History A Guidebook, published by Ch. Liks, 110 pages, 13 Euro. cordo of SA soldiers. The Horst Wessel Sog blared from gigatic loudspeakers. Black smoke billowed from the 400 blazig pylos alog the route, each bearig the ame of oe of the martyrs of the movemet i gold letters. Flag-bearig delegatios from the Nazi admiistrative districts stood earby. As Hitler passed each pylo, the ame of the martyr was aouced over the loudspeakers. The caskets were take o carriages to Köigsplatz Square. Whe the first carriage arrived, a shot was fired ad the flags were lowered. Vetera soldiers placed the caskets o the podium. Two large swastika baers were raised i uiso. The Völkischer Beobachter, the Nazi ewspaper, reported that the ceremoy had trasformed Köigsplatz Square ito a mighty forum for the movemet. The heroes were ow restig i the Nazi Party s holy shrie. Hitler proclaimed: Just as they marched fearlessly, so too shall they lie i the wid ad weather, i the storms ad rai, i the sow CH. LINKS VERLAG ad ice, ad i the su, uder the heaves. They will lie here i the ope as a eteral symbol of the Germa atio. For us, they are ot dead. The retired lieuteat resposible for establishig the SS, Josef Berchtold, wrote i the same paper: Their martyrdom has arise to become a ifiite symbol of our commitmet. Just as the hour of death at the Feldherrhalle has become the hour of birth of the future Reich, the dead have plated the seeds of today s victory. Whe their ames were called out, oly a small group of Natioal Socialists oce aswered Here! Today, a etire atio cries out 'Here!' for the dead of Nov. 9, 1923, ad for the murdered victims of our struggle. The Germa people have bee resurrected, ad with them, our deeds. Every year of their regime thereafter, the Nazis celebrated the resurrectio of the 16 martyrs of the movemet this way. Millios of Hitler Youth ad Nazi Party members visited this NS memorial ad regarded the me buried there as role models of selfsacrifice. Muich s tourist ceter advertised the sloga Capital of the Movemet ad the ew sights to attract visitors. I 1945, Germay lay i ruis ad the defeated Nazis were busily tryig to forget the past. O the ight of July 5, 1945, Muich s gravediggers removed the 16 bodies from the Temples of Hoor. The pla was to bury them somewhere else quickly, without ay publicity. O Jue 27, 1945, Mayor Karl Scharagl, who was appoited by the America occupyig forces, gave the gravediggers the followig istructios: Ay public participatio durig the burials, or ay kid of outward display whatsoever, must be avoided. O July 12, the director of Muich s muicipal cemeteries submitted his report to the mayor: O July 5, 1945, the bodies, or the remais thereof, were removed from the temples o Köigsplatz Square without icidet. The bodies were placed i family gravesites or buried i commo graves. This was carried out at a time of day whe the cemetery was closed to the public. The Muich officials decided to eradicate the former Nazi shrie. Eve Karl Meitiger, who had bee head of the City Plaig departmet uder the Nazis, was busy thikig about the future. Speakig at the city coucil s first postwar meetig i August 1945, he said: We must strive to salvage the form ad appearace of the old city ceter at all costs. He expressed the hope that, withi a few decades, our beloved Muich would be restored to what it oce was. The city would be the focus of a ew era of tourism, ad its reputatio as Germay s city of the arts could flourish oce agai. To this ed, he said that Köigsplatz Square should be de-nazified ad the Temples of Hoor tor dow. Muich has maaged to avoid buildig a memorial to the past. The former capital of the Nazi movemet has trasformed ito the Weltstadt mit Herz (cosmopolita city with a heart). Ad o May 1, the city faced up to its past. Peter H. Koepf is Editor-i-Chief of THE ASIA PACIFIC TIMES. He is the author of the book Der Köigsplatz i Müche. Ei deutscher Ort, published by Ch. Liks Verlag, Berli, 2005.

16 16 Jue/July 2015 Media battle for the true faith The public portrayal ad self-image durig the Reformatio: Luther ad the prices at Hartefels Castle i Torgau By Klaus Grimberg Leaflets ad prited works were the ew media i the early 16th cetury. It is therefore completely irrelevat whether the uiversity lecturer Marti Luther actually ailed his 95 theses o the sale of idulgeces withi the Roma Catholic Church to the portal of the Castle Church i Witteberg or ot. Thaks to the ivetio of pritig a few years earlier, the polemic pamphlet published o 31 October 1517 spread like wildfire i the Germa states. Withi a very short time, it received a huge umber of likes to put it i moder terms. Ca a believer reduce the puishmet for his or her sis with moey? Ad ca the church trade i these kids of idulgeces i order to icrease its ow riches? Luther had a clear respose to these questios: No. His criticism, however, wet much deeper: Luther raised fudametal questios about the worldly ad spiritual authority of the church hierarchy. I his view, God s grace aloe led to eteral life, but ot the itermediary activities of church digitaries. I other words, a system of bouses ad pealties should ot exist with a view to purgatory ad priests, abbots ad bishops should ot have the right to act as middleme withi this system. The Germa prices immediately recogized the explosive power of Luther s efforts to reform the church. They realized that this would completely redefie their relatioship to the Roma Curia. If the church lost its worldly power ad riches, they could cosolidate their ow power ad stregthe their political ifluece. O display i Torgau: Lucas Craach s Joha Friedrich of Saxoy ad the Protestat reformers, aroud 1543 TOLEDO MUSEUM OF ART, GIFT OF EDWARD DRUMMOND LIBBEY/PHOTOGRAPHY INCORPORATED, TOLEDO The exhibitio etitled Luther ad the prices. The public portrayal ad self-image of rulers i the Reformatio era. at Hartefels Castle i Torgau tells the story of this process. It is the first of four special atioal exhibitios to mark the 500th aiversary of the Reformatio. The major players of the day were fully aware of the power of images eve o the threshold of the moder age. The prices who had joied Marti Luther s Reformatio surrouded themselves with a sese of pomp hitherto ukow ad celebrated their faith with spledid, sumptuous clothes ad weapos. They commuicated the spirit of the ew age i paitigs, egravigs ad works created by goldsmiths ad they adopted a clear stad. Those prices who retaied their old faith were forced to compete. For their part, they tried to ostetatiously uderpi the faith by makig particularly geerous doatios to the Catholic Church. The battle to fid the right way to God was also a fight for the most impressive self-portrayal at that time too. More tha 200 items o loa from may major museums aroud the world visualize this i a spectacular way at the exhibitio. If a price maages to be a good father at home, a statesma ad a hero at the same time, he is truly a great gift of God, Luther ( ) commeted oce i oe of his table coversatios. He was fortuate with his ow ruler: Elector Friedrich III of Saxoy ( ), kow as the Wise, had Luther kidapped i 1521 after the impositio of the imperial ba agaist him ad hid him as Squire Jörg at the Wartburg Castle ear Eiseach. Luther traslated the New Testamet ito Germa there usig a popular laguage full of images. As a result, the bold itervetio of Friedrich the Wise o behalf of the outlawed church revolutioary boosted the Reformatio i a decisive maer. Torgau with its mighty Hartefels Castle was the residetial tow of the Saxo Elector ad became the political ceter of the Reformatio durig the ext few decades. Luther was the most importat adviser i religious policy matters both to Joha the Stable ( ad particularly his so, Joha Friedrich the Magaimous ( ). Luther travelled to the tow located upstream o the Elbe River from Witteberg 50 kilometers away more tha 40 times; Hartefels Castle became the Elector s mighty fortress through structural modificatios ad extesio work. This all had symbolic sigificace: Fouded o the religious ad academic authority of the Reformers, the role model for the Luthera versio of the Price of the Holy Roma Empire emerged i Saxoy. The Elector himself became head of his state church ad represeted it forcefully towards the outside world. The result of this attitude is still visible i the Castle Chapel at Torgau, which Luther persoally cosecrated i 1544 as the first ew Protestat church buildig. The simple iterior very clearly illustrates his ideas of a reewed church: This was the meetig place of the church to hear the preachig of the gospel. I accordace with this thikig, the pulpit became the cetral elemet for the church service; it was placed i the middle. The altar, o the other had, forfeited its importace ad was a simple table supported by agels. The ma later to become Elector August ( ) married his wife Aa i this chapel i He tured the Saxo court ito oe of the most magificet i Europe durig his 30-year period as ruler. He was the ideal model of The major players of the day were fully aware of the power of images eve o the threshold of the moder age. a Luthera price for his cotemporaries scholarly, idustrious ad disciplied. Because he was also loyal to the empire ad the Emperor, he played a key role i egotiatig the Peace of Augsburg i Nie years after Luther s death, the Germa prices ad magistrates agreed to accept the peaceful coexistece of Protestat ad Roma Catholic imperial estates. Their subjects had to follow the faith of their state rulers or they were allowed to migrate. This provided the fulfilmet of a word spoke by Luther: The prices do ot have ay power to order their subjects to do aythig agaist God s commads. Luther ad the prices. The public portrayal ad self-image of rulers i the Reformatio era. 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