Establishment of peace and stability in Afghanistan

Transcription

1 Forum: Issue: Student Officer: Position: The Security Council Establishment of peace and stability in Afghanistan Woo Seong Yoon Deputy President Introduction Afghanistan is situated in the high mountains of the Pamirs which often referred as the Roof of the World. Having to be very geopolitically important as Afghanistan was situated right on the middle of the Eurasia, being the crossroad of the East and West, Afghanistan has constantly been shattered by wars and conflicts. Yet, Afghanistan never was fully conquered by foreign empires gaining the name of the Graveyard of Empires. There were prosperous times. Afghanistan enjoyed prosperity when the Silk Road was thriving with merchants, bringing huge wealth in the region. Afghanistan had this period of peace and stability in early 20th century as well. This peace and stability was gone after coup d état in 1973 eventually triggered the Soviet invasion of Society was shattered, extremists and warlords gained power, infrastructures were destroyed and the economy collapsed. Even after the United States came into the region after the 9.11 terror in 2001, Afghanistan is suffering from same problems they had in 1980s, and local Afghanis continue their life day by day in terror and violence. As this instability could easily infiltrate beyond the borders, and to guarantee the basic human rights of indigenous people, international efforts to bring peace and stability in Afghanistan must be made. Definition of Key Terms 9/11 This was a terrorist attack by Al-Qaeda on the global financial centre in New York city on the 11th of September 2001; this sparked the War on Terror and was the first time in history where any party dared to attack American soil since the bombing of Pearl Harbour in the Second World War. Al-Qaeda An Islamic militant and terrorist group responsible for the 9/11 attacks, they support the Taliban and were part of the Mujahedeen. Research Report Page 1 of 17

2 Coup d état A French term meaning the overthrow of a government or anything in power. Insurgency An organised rebellion aimed at overthrowing any government. Basically in this issue, it is used to collectively refer to the Al-Qaeda, other terrorist groups, the Taliban, the Mujahedeen, etc ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) Authorised in the Security Council in 2001, it is a coalition of an international military force with the task to assist the Afghan government in outside the Taliban. Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan ( ) The Taliban government set up after the fall of the Republic of Afghanistan. The government was characterised by harsh Islamic and Sharia laws. It was a theocratic dictatorship and had little value for human rights. It was only recognised by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates. One thing that it did achieve that this government is failing to however is to stomp out all crime, opium poppy and heroin production. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (2004-) The new government established by President Hamid Karzai and is currently the functioning government of Afghanistan. Kabul The political and economic capital of Afghanistan. Militants/Militia Any groups of armed people apart from the armed and police forces. It is general used to refer to the insurgent forces. Mujahedeen A group of loosely allied rebel groups that fought against the Soviet occupation in Afghanistan, they were the predecessors of the Taliban in Afghanistan, however they are still around and do offer the Taliban support. NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) A military alliance between the United States and the western countries, namely the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Turkey, etc They have a doctrine of collective security and reacted Research Report Page 2 of 17

3 to the 9/11 attacks as an attack on the United States, an attack on all the nations in NATO. Currently they make up a large part of ISAF. Northern Alliance The resistance group in the northern regions of Afghanistan that resisted the Taliban government and later on formed a government under Karzai. Operation Enduring Freedom The United States, led operation to oust terrorism from all the corners of the planet, though it is mainly associated with Afghanistan, it is also in effect in the Philippines, Somalia and a few other nations. UAV (Drone Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) These are remote controlled aircraft which can deploy missiles to attack militants remotely without causing much casualties to ISAF UNAMA (United Nations Mission in Afghanistan) Created by the Economic and Social Council and is tasked with aiding Afghanistan in building and developing infrastructure as well as a sustainable economy with projects. IED (Improvised Explosive Device) A deadly homemade bomb constructed on roadsides and fields. It has caused 66% of ISAF casualties, and threatening the life of locals as they are often buried under the soil. Hezbi-Islami A warlord of Afghanistan. Hezbi-Islami was a large recipient of military aids from US in mid 1990s. This enabled Hezbi-Islami to build trained and well-equipped army. Helmand Province The most Taliban-friendly region in Afghanistan, solid control of Taliban is continuing History Soviet Invasion of 1979 In 1973, the coup d état plotted by Sasardar Muhammad Daud Khan the cousin of the king, had overthrown the monarchy of Mohammed Zahir Shah, establishing the Democratic Republic of Research Report Page 3 of 17

4 Afghanistan. Daud Khan, who assumed the both position of presidency and prime minister, had driven strong internal reformation policy to transform the conservative Islam Afghan society into more secular society, and pursued pro-soviet Union policy. However although Daud Khan pursued the pro-soviet policy, He was not a communist. Daud Khan oppressed communist, socialist groups and Islamist groups in Afghanistan in order to constitute his power. This eventually brought the upheaval of the communists, resulting in the coup d état in 1978, which was staged by the People's Democratic Party. Daud Khan was murdered, and Nur Muhammad Taraki, the chief of the party assumed the office. When the People s Democratic Party came into the power, they adapted number of radical reformation to transform Afghanistan into a Marxist society including nationalisation of businesses and land. This radical approach had spread wide hostility among the Afghan society, which was still very conservative and religious. This eventually caused the appearance of the Mujahedeen, dragging down a nation into a state of civil war. Not only collapsing from the extensive opposition, the People s Democratic Party was tearing apart from inside. Power games between different factions within the party have weakened the control of Taraki, and he was removed from the office in the year of The next president Hafizullah Amin however, was deeply impressed by Tito of Yugoslavia, and stopped pursuing the pro-soviet policy, refusing any interference from Soviet Union. Amin also have tightened the oppression against anticommunist group, Islamist group and factions within the party. However, this resulted in acceleration of division of the society, and the regime was at risk of collapsing down. Soviet Union soon saw this as a threat. It was seemed that the instability in Afghanistan could result in loss of influence that they have built, and concerned that the instability in Afghanistan might influence Islamist population in their border. Soviet Union decided to confront this threat by using force under the code of the Brezhnev Doctrine the doctrine which declared that the sovereignty of an individual country can be restricted for the interest of the socialist allies as a whole. In December 24th, 1979, the Red Army have crossed the border, and 700 Spetsnaz agents (the special force of the Soviet military) which have infiltrated in prior of the invasion have eliminated the president Amin. Within few months, all of major cities in Afghanistan were captured by Soviet troops, and war seemed to be over. However, it was not. American and Chinese administrations were excited about the invasion as they figured out that they could easily exploit the situation. The Soviet-Afghan war is often referred as the Bear Trap. Jimmy Carter s administration successfully brought out the cooperation of China who shared the same interest, to transport weapons into Afghanistan for guerrillas. Mujahedeen soon started to engage Soviet troops under the cause of liberating the Afghanistan from foreign invaders. Mujahedeen, which were already popular even before the war successfully gathered support from resistance groups in Afghanistan and soon grew as a major armed faction in Afghanistan As the war continued for 10 years and as Afghanistan became Vietnam of Soviet Union, the cost of the war started to rage. Despite of the fact that the Red Army sustained kill death ration of 1 to 20, the political Research Report Page 4 of 17

5 cost that Soviet Union could bear war far lesser than Afghanistan. By the 1988, Soviet Union was barely controlling the major cities and major roads across the Afghanistan. In 1988, Soviet Union started pulling out of the region, and finished their withdrawal in As the war ended, Soviet Union found their nearly bankrupted budget, and Afghanistan found their country in ruin. 15,000 of Soviet troops, and 300,000 Mujahedeen fighters were killed. Yet, Soviet withdrawal from the region did not solve everything. Huge stash of weapon which came from Middle Eastern countries which shared the same religious belief, and USA which intended to put Soviet Union into the Bear Trap were left in Afghanistan. About a decade later, ironically, these weapons which were supplied from United States open fire at American and ISAF troops entering Afghanistan. Rise of Taliban Even after the withdrawal, the government which was established under Soviet influence survived until After the Soviet withdrawal, Mujahedeen changed their target to the government. The government was in superior condition as they were given with military aid from Soviet Union, and as many of Soviet military equipments were left in Afghanistan during the withdrawal. However, following collapse of Soviet Union and unpopularity from the public have critically shaken the government authority. The government control was reduced to the capital city, Kabul and soon was captured by Mujahedeen in April 1992 after the major offensive. Collapse of the government and Mujahedeen takeover brought an internal strife. Essentially, Mujahedeen was a coalition of number of factions and warlords which had difference in tribes and political beliefs. Efforts made by some leaders of Mujahedeen such as a widely supported and skilled guerrilla leader, Ahmad Shah Massoud, attempted to bring genuine unity amongst Mujahedeen, but their attempts were never compensated. Taliban was formed in this chaos under the lead of Islam priest, Mullah Muhammad Omar in This fundamentalist group rapidly grew as they have brought out support of the devastated public from prolonging war. In 1996, Taliban have driven out Mujahedeen from Kabul, and Mujahedeen control was now reduced to the northern area under Ahmad Shah Massoud forming the Northern Alliance in Post 9/11 Afghanistan When the World Trade Centre (WTC) crumbled into a pile of ash and concrete blocks, it was apparent that United States was going to track down the de facto power. It soon turned out that Osama Bin Laden and Al-Quaeda were behind the attack, and they were taking haven in Afghanistan. Taliban refused to hand Bin Laden to US as they believed that US will not be able to enter Afghanistan as they were landlocked, and had close relationship with Pakistan. However Pakistan succumbed to the intimidation of United States and United States entered Afghanistan in October 7th, The ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) was formed two months after the invasion by the decision of Research Report Page 5 of 17

6 the Security Council. When the US military first entered in Afghanistan in October 7th, 2001, the easy victory was expected. With superior firepower and high-technology weapon, United States successfully toppled over Taliban government, and United States and ISAF won an easy victory. However, Taliban came back. Taliban alliance with Hezbi-Islami in 2003, and influx of volunteers, equipment and supplies from Pakistan made Taliban to replenish their loss. Now Taliban had more number, better equipment and better-trained fighters. Moreover, significant proportion of troops in Afghanistan was redeployed to Iraq as the war broke out in Taliban quietly rebuilt their force without provoking US, thus US built misperception that Afghanistan was stabilised. Priority of US was now Iraq, and Taliban took the best chance of the situation by carefully watching for an opportunity, concentrating on recovery. Taliban started striking back in mid 2000s. Having to successfully establish their stronghold in Pashtun region of Northern Pakistan and build alliance with Haqqani network another armed group suspected to be funded by Pakistani government, allowed Taliban to engage ISAF in large scale. Increasing civilian casualties during the battles and Taliban s increased presence brought distrust or even hostility, of locals to the US force. Especially, Pashto region in the south, which was traditionally more supportive to the Taliban regime, started supporting Taliban publicly. Taliban has recovered their strength, engaging guerrilla warfare in Kabul. This eventually brought increase in number of ISAF troops being deployed in Afghanistan. In 2006, 8,000 troops from ISAF member countries entered Afghanistan. This brought US military to launch several offensives against the Taliban. Despite of the far superior kill-death ratio, these attempts failed to shake Taliban as their losses were retainable. After it was decided that US was withdrawing from Iraq, Afghanistan retook their position as the US prior target. In February 2010, ISAF launched an offensive which was described as a decisive offensive, the Operation Moshtarak to test if ISAF could reverse the tide of the war and to cut supply of opium, which is the Taliban s main source of money. ISAF succeeded to capture Marza, their initial target within 3 days, however they failed to capture Helmand province as a whole and Afghan National Force displayed incompetence. The prospects of the war seemed gloomy. In May 2011, a person who provided the cause of the war Osama Bin Laden, was killed. Now US administration got a chance to pull out from Afghanistan. Other NATO nations in ISAF have started to pull out from Afghanistan. Obama declared that United States withdrawal will be on 2014, and US is concentrating on eliminating the threats and high officials of Taliban through covert missions and drone raids although control of Afghanistan is not solid at all even until now as proven by Kabul terror of Taliban has started to adapt more soft-liner policy to gain local support. By 2012, Taliban has appointed governors of every province apart from the capital city, Kabul, and exerting strong presence in all over the Afghanistan. Current ISAF control is only limited to major cities and proximate area near their military posts. Research Report Page 6 of 17

7 Key Issues Ethnic conflicts non existence of the national unity Tribes in Afghanistan never shared a sense of national unity ever since the ancient time. Isolated by mountainous terrains, tribes within Afghanistan considered each other as foreigner. Current border of Afghanistan was perpetuated in 20th century, when Afghanistan was first unified in history in 1919 by Durani dynasty. However, despite of the presence of the central government, tribes were never able to establish sense of belongingness to the united Afghanistan. This has continued until 21st century, left traditional antagonism, suspicions and power game between tribes in Afghanistan. Due to power game and reluctance between tribes, ISAF and Karzai government is finding harder to establish stable, united and functioning government in the region. Modern demographics of Afghanistan is composed of 40% of Pashutun the main supporting ethnicity of Taliban, 30% of Tajik, 10% of Uzbek and Hajara, and others minorities including Turkmen, Arab, Punjab and Kirgiz. Presence of Taliban and infiltrators Strong presence of Taliban in Afghanistan, especially in the southern area makes the ISAF almost impossible to get full grasp of the control of the situation. Now the US withdrawal in countdown, local residents tend to sympathise or even support the Taliban, as they were traditionally conservative and fear the retaliation of the Taliban. As the country is suffering continuous war prolonging over 10 years, the civil service and identification of citizen are hardly functioning. Insider attacks in ANF (Afghan National Force) and ANP (Afghan National Police) are common, adding more casualties. This derives difficulties of suppressing Taliban force, as significant portion of operational information is leaked to the Taliban. Chronic crisis of the government function Corruption is severe, economy is still in turmoil and the municipal government is in malfunction. Afghanistan scored 8 out of 100 in Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), ranked as the worst corrupted country in the world. Research Report Page 7 of 17

8 Afghanistan is poorest country in the world outside of Africa. GDP per capita is 1,055$, which is 10th lowest in the world, and Human Development Index is evaluated as 0.374, 13th lowest in the world. Over-reliance on foreign aid over 35% of their GDP coming from foreign aid, and lack of industrial background offers gloomy future of the Afghan economy after the withdrawal. Incompetence of the Afghan National Army and the Afghan Security Force With the full with withdrawal of ISAF forces by after 2014, the government is left to fend itself off from the Taliban. This may prove problematic to the government as the Afghan National Army and the Afghan Security Forces are considerably weaker and not as well trained as the coalition forces even though their numbers are much larger than the coalition s. They are unable to execute highly complex missions and operations like the coalition troops. Furthermore they lack communication, a strong centralised command and most importantly trust and transparency. Though this is improving it is still a very tedious job and requires a lot of work and time. As Afghanistan is visibly much poorer and more impoverished than the richer coalition forces, their equipment is also questionable after the withdrawal of ISAF. It is questionable whether they are able to act in full can act to their fullest without the equipment, currently nations such as the United Kingdom and the United States plan to be indirectly involved in the conflict in the future with joint military ventures and training of the Afghan troops. Anti-US and Anti-ISAF Sentiments It is historically proven that when two violent factions clash, locals tend to support a faction which is more similar to locals than other faction is. As the war continued over 10 years, and civilian casualty figure rose, locals are leaning towards Taliban in many of region especially in rural area. The ISAF mainly composed of American troops, is often seen as foreign invader rather than liberators, and such incidents like Quran burning incident, Kill Team incident, and Kandahar massacre are accelerating this sentiment. In addition to this, follow-measures which were taken by the US military often offended locals as their perspective and position onto these matters based on their individualism soil of the society. The US military tended to consider these incidents as a problem of the individuals, not the entire military. During April 2012 Kabul terror plotted by Taliban killing 29 ANF soldiers, locals have interrupted the ISAF counter-activity as they have thrown stones to American troops in activity. Although this might not represent the nation-wide sentiment, it is depressing the ISAF command as the presence of strong anti-us sentiment was verified even in a most well-controlled region in Afghanistan. Research Report Page 8 of 17

9 Major parties involved and their positions United States of America United States has been taking a most active role in the region in last 13 years, participating as a biggest player of the Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan. By the end of 2013, 51,000 American troops were stationed in Afghanistan. United States is a pivotal role in the ISAF, involving in various activities from the local reconstruction programmes to the combat activities against Taliban, funding largest share in the war spending $100 billion dollars for war by the end of Not only funding the war, United States has been pouring $100 billion worth of aids into Afghanistan since However due to the rise in death toll, increase in financial burden, and most importantly the death of Osama Bin Laden; the cause of the war, Obama administration have pushed the withdrawal plan from Afghanistan. United States, while increasing the number of covert missions and drone strikes engaged, is withdrawing from Afghanistan. As the result of the suspension of the bilateral security agreement discussions and increasingly frustrated by his dealings with President Hamid Karzai, President Obama was giving in early July 2013 serious consideration to speeding up the withdrawal of United States forces from Afghanistan and to a zero option that would leave no American troops there after At the moment it is very likely that most of combat units in Afghanistan will be withdrawn by the end of United States also held their first peace talk with Taliban in June 2013, in Qatar. Although the talk was dismissed without fruitful gains, it is very likely that the talk will open once again Taliban Taliban is controlling, or have infiltrated into almost all of the regions in Afghanistan. The ISAF is facing with the similar situation the Soviet troops had. When the focus of United States was on Iraq, Taliban have successfully re-established their control, organisation and strongholds all over Afghanistan. From the prolonging war and the great efforts put by Obama administration to put the war including assassinations of key figures, the Taliban organisation is weakened and even divided in many areas. However, Taliban still stands as a most powerful military faction apart from ISAF, and is showing their military capability in many regions across the Afghanistan especially in Helmand, and Sangin regions. Their aim is simple. Toppling over the current government of Afghanistan once the ISAF pulls out, and to establish a state ruled under the Taliban rule which is based on Sharia law although its strictness was relaxed as an appeasement to the locals. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Afghanistan under Karzai government aims to establish stability, peace and economic prosperity in the country. However due to overall crisis of the government functioning, none of the elements are being achieved at the moment in Afghanistan. Research Report Page 9 of 17

10 The current government of Afghanistan was not even invited to the peace-talk between the US and Taliban, as the US often expressed their frustration against the Afghanistan government. It is very likely that Taliban is going to easily topple over the current government in Afghanistan once the ISAF pull out at the end of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan Pakistan had been playing as a patron of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan before the Operation Enduring Freedom. Although the Pakistani government never agreed to the suspicions about their connection with the Taliban and other factions which are suspected for terrorism such as Al-Qaeda, it is an open secret that the Northern Pakistan is a source of personnel, equipments and fund of the Taliban in Afghanistan. This connection was busted when Osama Bin Laden was found in the wealthy town near Islamabad, and the information implying the connection between Al-Qaeda and the Pakistani intelligence agency, ISI was picked up in Bin Laden s hideout. However, after Pakistan have experienced series of drone bombings which caused civilian casualties, and turmoil from the Taliban activity especially the 2009 incident of the Taliban capturing the Army Headquarter of Pakistan over 12 hours, have brought Pakistan to reconsider their doublefolded policy. Pakistan held the first formal meeting between Pakistani government and a Talibannominated team in Islamabad to bring peace in a country, as a move to constitute peace and stability on its northern and western border. United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland United Kingdom is the closest transatlantic ally of the United States and on the situation in Afghanistan. United Kingdom currently has 9,500 troops in Afghanistan, engaging from social reconstruction missions to combat missions. They have contributed over 18 million, equivalent to about US$28 million. The United Kingdom is strongly concentrated in the regions of Helmand, Kandahar and Nimrod in the southernmost regions of Afghanistan, which are known as the most dangerous areas in Afghanistan. Like the United States they are facing unpopularity of the war from home, and also suffer from an economic crisis which includes an economic standstill, unemployment and a massive government budget deficit. United Kingdom despite being the most pro-us in the coalition has opted to withdraw as well and they plan to have a full withdrawal by the end of 2014 and Prime Minister David Cameron has promised that by the end of 2013 there will be 5,200 left in Camp Bastion and Afghanistan. However they wish to have other indirect involvement in the issue in the future such as joint military ventures and training programmes with the Afghan National Army and the Afghan National Security Forces. Research Report Page 10 of 17

11 Russian Federation Russian Federation, though they do not directly involve in on-going war of the region, Russia holds lots of interest in Afghanistan. Most of opium produced in Afghanistan passes through the Central Asia and Russia, on the way to their destination in Europe. Also, Russia concerns the future of the Afghanistan. Moscow does not prefer the idea of zero option which is being carried out by Obama. Russia is a strong supporter of the ISAF activity in Afghanistan from both international and domestic reason; regional security of the Central Asia and the justification of their activity in Chechnya. Traditionally, CIS countries and Russia have perceived Afghanistan as their southern border and a defence line against the Islam extremism. They wish the ISAF to stay in the area, securing the regional security and preventing any future deterioration of the condition in their southern republics of CIS countries. People s Republic of China China, shares the same view with Russia that they do not want the ISAF withdrawal in As the ISAF force engaged Taliban in Afghanistan, China could enjoy their regional security in the border area, being freed from worrying about possible coalition between independence activists in Xinjiang region which is Muslim majority, and the Taliban. Afghanistan stayed less important issue for China for long time. However as the withdrawal date is getting closer, Afghanistan is having more significance in Chinese politics. Traditionally, China s approach to consolidating a strong cooperative relationship with Afghanistan has been different from ISAF and the other western powers. Instead of donating or aiding it, China resorts to bilateral talks on trade and initiate economic projects in which both nations will benefit from. These large development project plans can be seen all across Africa in states like Nigeria in which China is trying to spread their influence. The French Republic France is an important player in this war as well, being a major NATO country and has in the past deployed 3,500 troops in Afghanistan. However France is not as aligned with the United States as the United Kingdom. Amidst an economic crisis and the Eurozone crisis, the war became increasingly unpopular as the war was perceived as a burden of the economy, causing financial deficits. Initially they planned to have a full withdrawal by the end of However as the centre-rightist President Nicolas Sarkozy lost in presidential elections in 2012 by a small margin to Socialist President Francois Hollande, the French forces began to pull out immediately from Afghanistan as promised in Hollande s manifesto. In December 2012, the last French troop left Afghanistan soil, its position on indirect military involvement is similar the United Kingdom s in terms of military training and foreign aid in money Research Report Page 11 of 17

12 Timeline of Relevant Resolutions, Treaties and Events Date Description 1978 Soviet Union invades the new Democratic Republic of Afghanistan to protect communist administration of the state under the Brezhnev Doctrine Soviet Union withdraws from Afghanistan after a 10 year war leaving country in turmoil 1992 The Najibullah government collapses with the Mujahedeen taking over, the country was renamed the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Taliban takes over Afghanistan after the conflict inside the Mujahedeen, the country was renamed the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance was formed under the lead of Ahmad Shah Massoud, a widely-supported guerrilla leader during the Soviet-Afghan war /11 attacks on World Trade Centre (WTC), located in New York, killing 3,000 civillians. The United States of America and its allies launch Operation Enduring Freedom and invade Afghanistan without the authorisation of the United Nations Security Council. ISAF is formed under the Security Council to aid Afghanistan in ousting the militants and making it a safer place The Afghanistan Transitional Administration was formed The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan was formed and for the first time in many years, Afghanistan has had its first election with Hamid Karzai winning as the President NATO takes responsibility for all of the Security issues in Afghanistan The Kingdom of the Netherlands if the first to withdraw completely from Afghanistan in the coalition. NATO agrees to give control and responsibility of all security related issues to Afghanistan by the end of 2014 Research Report Page 12 of 17

13 2011 Canada pulls out of Afghanistan 2012 Taliban attacks the diplomatic centre in the City of Kabul; the event was blamed on the Haqqani Network. France pulls out of Afghanistan The United Kingdom begins the withdrawal stage, leaving 5,200 behind by the end of 2013 and then completely removed by the end of Evaluation of Previous Attempts to Resolve the Issue Conventional Military Operations to Defeat Taliban The conventional military operation was the first choice of United States, the ISAF and the NATO. All of these parties involved in Afghanistan have been engaging Taliban ever since ISAF force have been making tactical victory almost every time they engage Taliban force estimated to have kill death ratio of 16:1, however it has been proven that ISAF will never be able to control the Afghanistan and eradicate Taliban. Taliban, based in Pakistan is known to have control in most of the rural regions in south and east of Afghanistan even after the 13 years of war. The conventional warfare is catastrophic to the economy as well. US alone has spent 6.9 trillion dollars in war, and recorded for 2,000 deaths. It is 3,500 deaths in ISAF overall, and those with severe injuries including loss of limb and severe brain damage are more than just 3,500. Distinction between civilian and enemy is blurry as well. This is why the war has been continuing over a decade, ISAF recording casualties. Thus when the distinction between enemy and the innocent civilian is unclear, the conventional warfare is not going to create any remarkable accomplishment. Supporting the Karzai government to establish the legitimacy and self-governing state The government under Karzai has often been accused of being inept and corrupt all over. Though democracy is good and can be seen as something as an indicator of development it does not ensure a government that is working. Nepotism runs all through the government and Karzai is being accused of giving government positions to warlords in order to appease them and get their support. There are two problems that arise from this; the first being that the ineptness of the government gets nothing done and the second this is that the corruption as it runs throughout the government. The question to answer is; Is democracy really a good thing to have in a young nation that has just emerged from war? Research Report Page 13 of 17

14 Covert missions and UAV drone attacks Ever since the start of the war, UAV drones participated as a main player of the war. Armed with a Hellfire missile, UAV drones were often utilised to provide fire support and recon service for ISAF troops. It has soon proved their value as an effective counter measure against Taliban infantry and targets out of their infantries reach. When the Bush administration was replaced by Obama administration, the withdrawal from Afghanistan became the main topic of discussion. As the withdrawal date started to get closer, United States have started to put their military effort to ensure the survival of current Karzai regime even after their withdrawal using not conventional tactics, but using asymmetric tactics the drones and special force. Use of these assets were not only limited within Afghanistan, but also Pakistan which became the source of fund and power for Taliban. The Obama administration have authorised 283 drone strikes in Pakistan by September 2012, which is 6 times more than the number during 8 years of Bush administration. Moreover, the existence of the Task Force 373 (TF373) was verified by the Wikileaks. TF373 s main objective is known as to eliminate the important figures of Taliban, and they are totally independent body detached from the ISAF command. They have been assassinating Taliban figures according to JPEL (Joint Prioritised Effects Lists) a hit list. The numbers of the covert missions have increased dramatically under the Obama administration, indicating determination of the current administration to end the war. However, despite of its effectiveness they are known to have eliminated number of important figures of Taliban, the covert missions have been causing another problem, which was named as the Collateral Damage by the Obama administration. During their missions, civilian casualties and friendly fire against Afghan National Force and Afghan National Police are often made, causing resentment from the local residents, and causing questioning of the morality of the ISAF by mass media. Bringing cooperation from local residents When the American military and ISAF entered the region, they started to involve in reconstruction of the society, not just combating against Taliban. Many of regions especially major cities and towns near the military base, were benefited from their missions. New roads were paved, wells were repaired and hospitals and schools were opened again. However effectiveness of this activity was limited. Benefits of this mission were not spread evenly across Afghanistan, and incidents like Kandahar Massacre have tarnished good will of the ISAF mission. Farmers were disappointed by low price of their wheat harvest, which the ISAF have guided them to farm instead of opium. Also, now the ISAF pulling out of the region by 2014, locals started to lean towards Taliban over the ISAF. Majority of the locals expect that the Taliban regime would retake the control of Afghanistan, and hesitates to cooperate the ISAF as they fear the retaliation. Research Report Page 14 of 17

15 Possible Solutions Military option The ISAF made number of military attempts to reverse the situation in Afghanistan by launching small to large scale offensives. However as Taliban was able to create solid base in Northern Pakistan for their manpower, equipments and fund, ISAF found it was almost impossible to fully control Afghanistan. Despite of the fact that ISAF claims that the situation is getting better day by day and year by year, the number of battles Taliban engages to ISAF is not decreasing. Poverty of the region and almost inaccessible terrains composed of steep mountains all over the Afghanistan, are offering perfect environment for Taliban s asymmetric warfare. Presence of anti-us and ISAF sentiments in significant portion of locals as proven in Kabul terror 2012 is making military activities in the region more difficult, as it could incite locals to join the Taliban. As the withdrawal of the US military is reserved in late 2014, military option is hardly possible at this phase. Although drone strikes using UAV and covert missions against Taliban figures could hinder Taliban control s effectiveness, this has only tactical and limited impact on the war as a whole. Thus this will not reverse the tide of the war. Diplomatic option reconciliation with Taliban Most current and most rational solution at the moment is reconciliation. Despite of the Karzai government s objection, the peace talk between United States and Taliban was brought to the table in June, The Karzai government was excluded from the talk, indicating loss of trust and US prediction of the future politics in Afghanistan. Taliban demanded to release Taliban prisoners in Guantanamo in return of releasing US prisoners they captured. Although the peace talk between two parties was dismissed without any fruitful conclusion, but it is apparent that the peace talk will be held again in near time. United States, who is rapidly losing control of the situation in Afghanistan, can alternatively choose the option that they have opted in the past the US Vietnam relationship. By doing this, instead of causing further deterioration of the situation, United States can expect temperance of Taliban regime in return of not challenging their authority, and even offering them economic aid to reconstruct their economy if necessary. Containment policy United States, the main participant in the region has another option. Instead of totally pulling out of the region, United States could leave some of their personnel and assets in Pakistan under Pakistani cooperation. With the cause of combating terrorism, they could engage in counter-terrorism activity in Northern Pakistan in order to reduce the risk of Taliban expansion and infiltration in Pakistan. Although Research Report Page 15 of 17

16 this will not remove the Taliban government in Afghanistan, this will reduce weapon flow into Afghanistan and allow United States and her allies to prevent toppling security in the region. This will be a relatively expensive option, and will be seen as a violation of national sovereignty if Pakistani cooperation is not derived. Yet, taking in account of the potential threat to Pakistan s nuclear arsenal and Taliban s strength in Pakistan, this could be a rational option to prevent potential threat to the global security, given that Pakistan agrees to cooperate. However, cooperation of Pakistan is hardly expected as Pakistani authority adhere tacit support to Taliban activity in Afghanistan Taliban had support of the Pakistan government until the United States threatened Pakistan allow access to Afghanistan. Research Report Page 16 of 17

17 Bibliography US Army map of Afghanistan -- circa < Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan < Pakistan enters peace talks with Taliban. < UK and Afghanistan < Russia's Afghan agenda. < China s Afghanistan Challenge < Drone is Obama's weapon of choice < Research Report Page 17 of 17