AFGHANISTAN. The Trump Plan R4+S. By Bill Conrad, LTC USA (Ret) October 6, NSF Presentation
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1 AFGHANISTAN The Trump Plan R4+S By Bill Conrad, LTC USA (Ret) October 6, NSF Presentation
2 Battle Company 2 nd of the 503 rd Infantry Regiment 2
3 Battle Company 2 nd of the 503 rd Infantry Regiment 3
4 Overview (To Understand the Trump Plan) The Graveyard of Empires (The Great Game) Civil War September 11, ISAF The Obama Plans The Trump Plan Where Do We Go From Here 4
5 5
6 Anglo-Afghan War The Great Game Anglo-Afghan Wars also called Afghan Wars, three conflicts ( ; ; 1919) Great Britain, from its base in India, sought to extend its control over neighboring Afghanistan and to oppose Russian influence there. The Great Game 6
7 Ethnic Breakdown & Political Borders Pashtun, ~55 % Pashtu/Sunni Tajik, ~30% Dari/Sunni Hazara, 4% Mongolian Origin, Shi a (Iran) Uzbek, Sunni 2 % Aimak, Turkmen, Baloch, Pashai, Nuristani, Gujjar, Arab, Brahui, Pamiri and a few others. The Afghan National Anthem and the Afghan Constitution mention a total of 14 ethnic groups. (< 1%) 7
8 Soviet War & Operation Cyclone Soviet Invasion Operation Cyclone Charlie Wilson s War -- US, Pakistan & Saudi Arabia assist Mujahedeen to defeat the Soviets Created a vacuum 8
9 Mujahedeen, Al-Qaeda, & Taliban Muslim countries provided thousands of volunteer fighters, known as Mujahedeen, to wage jihad against the USSR. US and Sandi Arabia funded Al-Qaeda evolves and lead by Osama bin Laden Madrasa (Muslim schools) established by the Saudi Wahhabi evolve into the Taliban. 9
10 Civil War 12 Warlords Mujahedeen (Jihadists) Taliban (Young religious fighters who came out of the Madrasas) Power shifts to Taliban (Controls Kabul) 10
11 September 11, 2001 to 2007 President Bush s Policies The Operation Enduring Freedom Starts (2001 present) as the response to 9/11 Purpose: Capture Osama bin Laden, destroy al- Qaeda, remove Taliban We sided with Warlords 11
12 Restored Warlords & Created Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Gul Agha Sherzai (son of the lion) 12 Sherzai was removed as Governor of Kandahar after criticisms of his warlord-style leadership, poor human rights record and suspected involvement in opium trafficking in the province.
13 USAID (Nation Building) JALALABAD TERMINAL 13
14 The Terrain The Silk Road "We re actually rebuilding the Silk Road," said Lt. Col. William Conrad, the civil-military affairs officer for Task Force Warrior, the unit in charge of the area. Stars & Stripes 14
15 Bamyan Province Restoration 15
16 KABUL Stabilizing the Government 16
17 President Obama Surge America must shift its defense resources from Iraq to Afghanistan, which he sees as ground zero for any war on terrorism. The only troops I will keep in Iraq will perform the limited missions of protecting our diplomats and carrying out targeted strikes on Al Qaeda 17
18 2008/9 The Bloody Surge They separated us from the people 18
19 CERP Is Cut (Money no longer a weapon) (Commanders Emergency Response Program) 19
20 Obama s Inconsistent War Plans 2009 troop surged (100,000 US total coalition 140,000) 2012 New rules of engagement (election year) -- Riskaverse politics 2014 US combat operations with the Taliban ended (8,500 US non combat operations) Afghan forces were left on their own, with no air cover to battle the Taliban, often taking heavy casualties 20
21 Broader approach to America s most pressing national security concerns are now consistent with efforts in Iraq and Syria. The Trump Plan R4-S Regionalize, Realign, Reinforce, Reconcile and Sustain "South Asia Strategy" Back to global perspective 21
22 The Trump Plan R4-S Regionalize, Realign, Reinforce, Reconcile and Sustain "South Asia Strategy" We are not nation-building again. We are killing terrorists, President Trump He is striving to differentiate his plan from failed approaches of the past. 22
23 2017 Current Situation 23
24 The Trump Plan R4-S Regionalize, Realign, Reinforce, Reconcile and Sustain "South Asia Strategy" Pressure Pakistan to fight the Taliban in tribal areas Deny the Taliban and other extremists the advantage of anticipating U.S. military moves. 24
25 The Trump Plan R4-S Regionalize, Realign, Reinforce, Reconcile and Sustain "South Asia Strategy" Decentralize military decisionmaking in the White House -- a critique often leveled at Obama Delegate authority to his defense secretary and warzone commanders 25
26 Why Trump s Plan Could Work Right People (Gen Mad Dog Mattis and Gen Dunford) Delegating Authority to Field Commanders Removing Politics from day to day operations Embedding US Advisors Providing Air Support Afghan Forces are becoming bolder in combat and going on the offensive. Condition-based (rather than time-based) withdrawal 26
27 Where Do We Go From Here? Looking at the education and the culture, it will take a generation to stabilize the region. Will the U.S. still be in Afghanistan 10 years from now? Certainly, we may have advisers there 10 years from now, Mattis said. but the Taliban will not be the enemy they are. 27
28 AFGHANISTAN The Trump Plan R4+S By Bill Conrad, LTC USA (Ret) October 6, 2017 NSF Presentation
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