DEPARTMENT OF BIOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Transcription

1 DEPARTMENT OF BIOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Dicuing Population Growth - The Magazine Sverige Natur and Looking for Article about Population Growth a a Caue for Environmental Problem Ann-Marie Ljungberg Degree project for Mater of Science (120 hec) with a major in Biology BIO 795, Naturvårdbiologi, examenkur, 30 credit Second cycle Semeter/year: Spring 2018 Supervior: Frank Götmark, Department of Biological and Environmental Science Examiner: Håkan Pleijel, Department of Biological and Environmental Science

2 The picture on the front page i one of the illutration to The Human Crii by Inga Thoron in the yearbook from 1972, made by the ignature EWK (Ewert Karlon) 2

3 Table of content Abtract 4 Introduction... 5 Hypothei 5 The magazine Sverige Natur general trend during the period Previou work concerned with neglect of the population growth iue 6 The world population and the environment 7 Conference on population growth 7 Limitation 8 Method 9 Special problem 10 Reult Categorie and trend 14 Section 1 14 Section 2 16 Article Summary reult 21 Dicuion 22 Categorie of ilencing 22 Reaon to be cautiou 24 Concluion 25 Thank to 26 Reference 27 Attachment: Article, Popular Science 29 3

4 Abtract The global population increae. Even if the growth rate decreae, we currently become over 80 million more people on the Earth every year. According to UN DESA medium projection, the population will till be increaing in 2100 and by then we will be more than 11 billion people on the Earth. The propected curve for 0.5 more children per woman exceed 16 billion people in 2100, while 0.5 le children born per woman lead to a population of 7 billion in Thi mean that what we do i very important. The problem i that we do not eem to do much. Reearcher and environmentalit were concerned about population growth between the 1950 and the 1990, but ince then the interet eem to have declined. Current reearcher, Diana Coole, Martha Campbell and Garrett Hardin among other, explain why and when the ilence around the population quetion aroe. According to them, it wa a ucceive decline in interet tarting with the population conference in Bucharet in 1974, and final dimial or change of attitude regarding the population-topic at the conference in Cairo Thi paper i a tudy of a Swedih environmental magazine, Sverige Natur, and how thi magazine ha followed the international change in attention for population growth. Trend have been hown both by counting the number of mentioning population growth in iue publihed and , and when examining how the handle the ubject over time. The reult how a temporal decline in number of concerned with population growth in the majority of the categorie ued. The trend of how the ubject i handled over time are even clearer when it come to what conequence population growth i uppoed to have, and which political dicoure i ued when dicuing population growth. Sammanfattning Den globala befolkningen ökar. Även om ökningtakten minkar, växer jorden befolkning för närvarande med över 80 miljoner männikor per år. Enligt UN DESA mediumberäkning, ökar folkmängden fortfarande år 2100 och då kommer vi att vara fler än 11 miljarder männikor på jorden. Den beräknade kurvan för en ökning med ytterligare 0,5 barn födda per kvinna överkrider 16 miljarder männikor 2100, medan 0,5 barn färre per kvinna leder till en befolkning på 7 miljarder Det betyder att vad vi gör pelar tor roll. Problemet är att vi inte tyck göra å mycket. Forkare och miljövänner var engagerade i frågan om befolkningtillväxt mellan 1950-talet och 1990-talet, men edan de verkar intreet ha minkat. Nutida forkare, Diana Coole, Martha Campbell och Garrett Hardin, bland andra, förklarar varför och när tytnaden om befolkningfrågan upptod. Enligt dem har intreet för frågan ucceivt minkat, en minkning om började under befolkningkonferenen i Bukaret 1974, med lutgiltigt avfärdande eller ändring i attityd under konferenen i Kairo Den här uppaten är en tudie av en venk miljötidkrift, Sverige Natur, och hur denna tidkrift har följt de internationella förändringarna i uppmärkamhet för befolkningtillväxten. Trender har viat ig både när artiklar om nämner befolkningtillväxt har räknat i nummer publicerade och , och när artiklarna har underökt med aveende på hur ämnet hantera i artiklarna. Reultatet viar en nedgång över tid i antalet artiklar om refererar till befolkningtillväxt i majoriteten av de kategorier om har använt. Trenderna när det gäller hur ämnet hantera över tid är ännu tydligare. Det handlar om vilka konekvener befolkningtillväxten anta ha, och vilken politik dikur om använd när befolkningtillväxten dikutera. 4

5 Introduction Hypothei The ubject for thi tudy i how the amount of attention for population growth changed in the magazine Sverige Natur (Sweden Nature) during 50 year ( and ). According to academic reearch, there ha been a general decline of dicuion about population growth internationally. The lat UN-conference on population wa held in 1994, but the iue ha not become le urgent. The global population till increae, and thi i an important caue (among other), for climate change according to the IPCC-aement report According to Camilo Mora (1:2014) population growth i alo directly or indirectly linked to the deterioration of ecological ytem ( ) and a key factor for the ucce of conerving pecie and ecoytem ( ) 2. The magazine Sverige Natur might be een a one forum of how the attention for the ubject ha changed in the Swedih ociety. The magazine i choen a ubject for the tudy ince it i the environmental magazine which ha been publihed during the longet timepan in Sweden (from 1910 until today), and i alo well pread among intereted Swedih reader ( reader 2016) 3. The main hypothei i that the attention for global population growth a an environmental hazard ha followed the international trend in the magazine Sverige Natur during the year , and decreaed. The hypothei i baed on and book by for example Diana Coole (2013) 4, Martha Campbell (2007) 5, Camilo Mora (2014) and Garrett Hardin (1993) 6. Alternatively, report about the problem may have occurred in a teady flow, or they may have increaed (although thi latter poibility wa conidered unlikely). One prediction to be teted will follow, later in text. Other quetion, poed in thi paper and related to the hypothei, concern the way in which the attention for overpopulation covariate with the global population growth, and in which way the iue of overpopulation i dicued. Thi lat quetion can be divided in two part: 1. which environmental problem population growth i uppoed to caue mot frequently (for example eroion, lack of reource or freh water), and 2. with what political dicoure the iue of population growth i handled, for example if it i mentioned in connection with unevenly ditributed reource or overconumption, and how thi change over time. Formulated a ubhypothee thee quetion become: a. The attention for population growth in Sverige Natur doe not covariate with the global population growth over time. b. Over time, the about population growth in Sverige Natur will change view on which environmental problem population growth i (mainly) uppoed to caue. c. Over time, there will be a change in the political background for the dicuion about population growth in Sverige Natur. It turn out that the main hypothei i not fully clarified by only conidering number of mentioning population growth. But when the content of the were examined with regard to the ub-hypothee, trend howed up in the way the ubject were handled over time. 1 IPCC-aement report Mora, Camilo, Reviiting the environmental and ocioeconomic effect of population growth: a fundamental but fading iue in modern cientific, public, and political circle. Ecology and Society 19(1): Crona, Malin, Allt fler läer Sverige Natur, Sverige Natur, March 20, Coole, Diana, (2013) Too many bodie? The return and diavowal of the population quetion, Environmental Politic, 22:2, Campbell, Martha, 2007, Why the Silence on Population?, Popul Environ (2007) 28: Hardin, Garrett (1995), Living within Limit, Ecology, Economic and Population Taboo, Oxford Univerity Pre 5

6 The magazine Sverige Natur general trend during the period Sverige Natur i publihed by the Swedih organization Naturkyddföreningen (earlier Svenka Naturkyddföreningen ). During the 1980 the magazine had more page. The amount of content i not alway hown by the number of page though, but rather in the font, which ucceively get bigger and parer, and the amount of picture and ize of headline which fill up the page at the expene of text. In the 1950, a view of nature a wilderne eem predominant. Alo, there i concern about oil emiion in the Baltic Sea and declining amount of bird a a reult of the ue of peticide in Swedih agriculture. Other theme are hydropower plant, with impact on the nature in the northern part of the country. In the 1960 there wa a large focu on toxin in nature (probably due to Rachel Caron book Silent Spring, publihed in 1962). During the 1970 the acidification wa an urgent problem a well a exce fertilizer in nature. In the 1980, nuclear power wa dicued (not leat 1986, with the breakdown in Tjernobyl), and in the 1990 the mot common iue were biodiverity, nuclear power and nonrenewable reource. During the 1970 there were frequent illutration, ometime about population growth. Ewert Karlon illutrated the vignette Internationell naturvård and alo the article The Human Crii by Inga Thoron (yearbook, 1972) (picture 1). There i a gap in my reading of the magazine, between the year 1995 and The magazine changed during thee year. The iue from 2014 and onward eem thinner, the horter, and text eemingly implified. There i alo a new focu on conumption: which good to chooe for le impact on the environment (clothe, food, furnihing etc), other common topic in later iue are degradation of mangrove plantation, platic debri in the ea and global warming. Between 1950 and 1995, there were everal international conference on global environmental iue. The one in Stockholm 1972 and in Rio de Janeiro 1992 influenced the content of Sverige Natur, in increaing number of about population growth (ee below). Picture 1. One of the illutration to The Human Crii by Inga Thoron in the yearbook from 1972, made by the ignature EWK (Ewert Karlon). Previou work concerned with neglect of the population growth iue The prediction from hypothei to be teted i that the amount of about population growth in Sverige Natur decreae, epecially after the Cairo conference in The hypothei i baed on reearch by Garrett Hardin, Diana Coole, Martha Campbell, Helen Kopnina and Haydn Wahington 7 7 Kopnina, Helen and Wahington, Haydn, 2016, Dicuing why Population Growth i Still Ignored or Denied, Chinee Journal of Population Reource and Environment, Volume 14, 2016, Iue 2 6

7 and other, decribing an international decline in interet. According to Coole (195:2013) population growth wa regarded a an urgent environmental iue during the 1960 and beginning of the 1970, which ugget that the decline in attention tarted already in the mid-1970 (196:2013). The world population and the environment In 1950, the Earth had 2.5 billion inhabitant. In 1990, the population wa 5 billion people (Coole, 195:2013). According to World Population Propect 8 (1:2017), in 2017 the global population wa 7.6 billion. In the Propect the population will have increaed to 8.5 billion in 2030 and to 11 billion in The current growth rate i 1.10 percent per year (2:2017). According to Mora (2014) and Crit et al. (2017) 9 there i reaon to be concerned about future food and water upplie, not leat becaue the production of both food and water caue maive environmental and climatic impact (Mora, 5:2014). Mora tate that agricultural expanion account for the annual deforetation of 5-10 million hectare of foret, wherea inappropriate practice have caued the eroion of ~3 of the world cropland at a rate of 10 million hectare per year. He alo tate that habitat lo i the leading factor in wildlife extinction, while alo releaing captured CO2 and tampering with the functionality of foret to tore CO2. On top of thi, more than 2.5 million metric ton of peticide and 142 million ton of fertilizer are ued in agricultural practice each year (Mora refer to the FAO, 2011), and thee peticide and fertilizer contribute to greenhoue gae due to methane emiion from livetock and nitrou oxide from oil fertilizer ( ) and are a leading caue of biodiverity change becaue of their runoff. (Mora, 5:2014) Conference on population growth Bucharet 1974 wa the UN-conference on the relationhip between population and development. According to a thei by Timothy J. McCune, 10 the Bucharet conference wa characterized by a growing international political rift (144:2012). The conference purpoe were, among other, to dicu way of limiting population growth through implementing population and ocial welfare policie with direct effect on fertility (McCune, 144:2012). But there were delegate (mainly from the Third World), who claimed that international population aitance wa racit, genocidal, or imperialitic, or accued Wetern nation of advocating population control a a ubtitute for foreign aid and intead, preed the neceity to bring about a new and more equitable international economic order (145, 146:2012). The reult wa, according to McCune, a compromie. According to Garrett Hardin, referring to the conference in Bucharet 1974 (36:1993) 11 it wa partly becaue of the need for a capegoat, that (mainly) the Chinee delegation managed to teer the conference away from dicuion of population control 12. The Chinee delegate, according to Hardin, declared Population i not a problem under ocialim, intead he blamed the imperialit aggreion and plunder. Hardin write that the Chinee delegate analyi wa warmly welcomed by other 8 World Population Propect: The 2017 Reviion Key Finding and Advance Table 9 Crit, Eileen; Mora, Camilo; Engelman, Robert. The interaction of human population, food production, and biodiverity protection, Science, 21 Apr 2017: Vol. 356, Iue 6335, pp McCune, Timothy J., 2012, Quantity in Light of Quality: Rethinking the Population Problem, UMI, Diertation Publihing 11 Hardin, Garrett, 1993, Living within Limit, Economic and Population Taboo, Oxford Univerity Pre 12 The term population control, tem, according to Campbell (242:2007) from the Cairo conference 1994, and wa ued derogatory by opponent for attempt of the earlier family planning effort. Inpite of thi, he ue it a a mean to decribe program or action with purpoe limit population growth, and I ue it in the ame way. 7

8 delegate from the Third World. The Indian delegate, according to Hardin, claimed that Development i the bet contraceptive. Since 1974, much national development ha occurred internationally. Diana Coole write: Depite developing countrie antagonim to American-led initiative on population control in Bucharet [1974], many had introduced donor-dependent, national family planning programme by the 1980 becaue they regarded population growth a detrimental to development (209:2013). During the conference in Mexico City 1984, the political rift from Bucharet 1974 remained, although ome of the countrie were le hotile to population control. Intead the US delegation tated that thoe developing countrie experiencing population preure hould reduce government interference in their economie in order to promote economic growth and thereby reduce fertility (McCune, 146, 147:2012, quoting Finkle and Crane, Ideology and Politic at Mexico City 1.). The plan from Mexico City advied government not to encourage women to have abortion, and no quantitative target were expreed. The ambition of the Cairo conference 1994 wa to formulate a conenu poition on population and development for the next 20 year (McCune, 148:2012, quoting C. Alion McIntoh and Jaon L. Finkle, June, 1995: 224). But the main focu wa on the role and welfare of women. However, the political rift had grown and delegate pent much of the conference arguing over term related to abortion. Some mulim nation were boycotting the conference, and the official reult from Cairo wa a non-binding programme containing a conenu meant to encourage voluntary policie in order to tabilize population growth to omewhere well below the projected 12.5 billion etimate for 2050 (McCune, 149:2012). Important i though, that all thee UN-conference declared that population policie are the overeign right of individual nation. Kopnina and Wahington alo date the turn of attention for population growth to the 1994 UNconference in Cairo. They write there they topped talking about family planning and intead poke of women reproductive health and right ( ). 13 John Bongaart and Steven W. Sinding 14 refer to a report from the UN ecretary general to the Commiion on Population and Development (2009) in which i tated that the proportion of population expenditure on family planning and on reproductive health both declined between 1995 and 2007 (from 55% to 5% and from 19% to 17%, repectively), which i directly after the Cairo-conference. According to an article by Karl-Erik Norrman and other in Svenka Dagbladet (October 14, 2015), the global funding for family planning ha decreaed and of the Swedih total aid only 5-7 percent are aimed for Sexual and Reproductive Health, and only a part of thi i for family planning 15. After the Cairo-conference in 1994, there were no more UN- conference on the theme of population growth (although the Cairo-conference wa planned for a period of twenty year ahead). Limitation Thi tudy will not be able to draw any concluion about general trend in Swedih media or global media. A tudy with that purpoe would need a broad tudy of different magazine, 13 Kopnina, Helen and Wahington, Haydn, 2016, Dicuing why Population Growth i Still Ignored or Denied, Chinee Journal of Population Reource and Environment, Volume 14, 2016, Iue 2 14 Bongaart, John; Sinding, Steven W. Letter, (in a reply to Petroni, Suzanne, The Decline in Funding for Family Planning), International Perpective on Sexual and Reproductive Health, Guttmacher Intitute, Volume 35, Iue 3, September 2009, page Karl-Erik Norrman, Carl Wahren, Lar Wedén and Ander Wijkman, Roling har fel om jorden befolkning, Svenka Dagbladet, October (In Englih: 8

9 televiion program etc. If uch a tudy would be done, thi paper might contitute a part of it. Alo, thi paper might be een a indicative. Another limitation i that thi paper cannot tell anything about the proportion of entence connected to population growth per iue, ince it hould, if done properly, be done in word per iue, which wa not poible within the time-plan. While writing thi, there are till two iue, and two yearbook miing. Thee are iue , iue , yearbook of 1991 and yearbook of Method I have read iue of the magazine during the period and , including advertiement. I have collected referring to population growth in a global ene, or connected to population growth in a local or national ene, which relate to problem on a global cale. Thi i often the cae with population growth in India, China, ome African countrie and Indoneia for example. Alo, I have included many different variation of the concept, like overpopulation, increaing fertility, increaing birth rate and many other a long a they fulfill the condition poed above. Article have been divided into three categorie: 1. mentioning population growth (or formulation equal in meaning to population growth) at leat once, 2. with at leat two entence on the ubject of population growth, 3. containing at leat five entence about population growth. The reulting trend in concerning population growth get tronger with a many a poible a bai, which i a reaon to include with only one entence. But apart from the rik of miing ingle word of population growth in the about page, there i reaon for changing the main category of invetigation to containing at leat two entence about population growth: the variety between containing only one entence i large. Sometime meage are keen even if hort, for example the editorial in iue 1, 1974: The time for deciion regarding the energy politic i getting cloer. In global repect only the population quetion i of more importance and ometime more caual a in iue : National Conference -82 (tranlation of Riktämman -82 ). The delegate from 122 SNF-circuit dicued a erie of propoition the population quetion, conervation of the genetic reource, the threat to pature and wetland, traffic of nowmobile, and many other thing. Thi variety decreae when excluding containing le than two entence, and thi category would give a more correct picture of the attention for the ubject of population growth in Sverige Natur. Unfortunately, analyzing of get more difficult with fewer, epecially regarding the from the 2010 of which there i a total of eleven, but only two of them contain at leat two entence about population growth. Many reult from the examination of with more than five entence alo uffer from being too few which rik bia in analyi of combined ubject and other characteritic, compared to the from other decade or categorie. A problem which i harder i that there eem to be a tendency of the in total to become horter over time. A will be een below, there i a clear increae over time in proportion of which mention population growth only in one entence. Therefore, when it come to frequency of, I will conider with more than two entence, but when it come to comparing the content of the, mainly from all the three categorie will be taken into account. 9

10 Categorie of the 160 in proportion over time 82% % 33% 33% 31% 25% 25% 17% 47% 37% 17% 42% 29% 29% 18% Article with only one entence Article with 2-4 entence Article with more than five entence 1950: : : : : 11 Figure 1. The proportion of containing only one entence increae with time, while the other two categorie decreae. Thi might mean that (1) the general trend i that in Sverige Natur decreae in ize or (2) a general trend i that the interet for population growth decreae (3) both or (4) it i coincidental. In addition, it how that the proportion of with more than five entence are more common than both other categorie in the 1970-column, which might be een a a ign of more concern for the problem of population growth during thi period (Appendix 1). Special problem 1. In iue 4, 1987 theme One Single Earth (tranlation of En enda jord ), the were cloe, hould it be one long article or many horter? The deciion fell on many horter, ince that wa in line with the other in ize and form, at that period. The year 1987 got four more. Thi i ignificant for the reult. 2. Article from 2010 are few (eleven) and conit mainly of one and two entence about population growth. It work if counting all of the mentioning population growth, it alo work when counting only thoe who mention population growth in more than five entence (none) but it doe not work when counting thoe which mention population growth in two-four entence, ince there are only two pot in the 2010, and the reult can only become, 5 or 10. The five-entence-category ha the ame problem for decade with few. Reult The um of iue and yearbook examined i 362. The um of all found connected to population growth i 160. Sum of containing at leat two entence about population growth i 96. And um of containing at leat five entence about population growth i 42. Thi mean that there are 64 containing only one entence about population growth and 54 containing two-four entence about population growth. It turn out that the quetion about precie tarting point for the decline of interet for population growth a an environmental iue i not fully clarified. The frequency of doe decreae after 1994 in the firt category (Figure 3a), but only compared to the 1970 and early Compared to the 1950 and 1960 the number of after 1994 increae in thi category. But if uing the diagram covering with at leat two entence (Figure 3b) the after 1994 decreae. In thee diagram there are two peak, one in 1972 and one in Thee are the peak for the conference in Stockholm (1972) and Rio de Janeiro (1992). In 1994, the conference in Cairo took place, which wa the year the decline in attention for population growth wa uppoed to have begun. The decline may have happened after 1995, but the actual time of decline i not een in the diagram of frequency, due to gap in iue tudied. 10

11 All over time: 12 Frequency overpopulation (all) Figure 2: Frequency diagram over time (per year), all. Average per iue over time, category 1, 2 and 3. 3a. Category 1. 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0, b. Category 2. Average per iue 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 3c. Category 3. Population growth, average per iue (all) Populaion growth, average per iue (containing at leat two entence)

12 Population growth, average per iue (containing at leat five entence) 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0, Figure 3: Apart from howing difference between categorie, thee diagram how at leat two peak: One during the 1970 and one during the 1990, which are connected to the conference in Stockholm 1972 and Rio de Janeiro in a. doe not how any decreae in the after 1995, which contradict the prediction of thi tudy. The increae of about population growth during the 1970 wa not only an increae in, but alo in the expreed concern about population growth within the (Figure 3). Before the conference in Stockholm and in Rio de Janeiro, what influenced the interet in population growth may have been book, for example The Road to Survival by William Vogt, (1948), Our Plundered Planet, by Fairfield Oborn (1948), and later The Population Bomb by Anne and Paul Ehrlich, publihed 1968, and (mainly) The Tragedy of the Common by Garrett Hardin, publihed 1968, but alo by Barry Commoner, The Cloing Circle, 1971, who wa critical to the referral of population growth a an environmental problem. The Club of Rome and their firt report The Limit to Growth (1972) ha alo been mentioned. In appendix 2, there are diagram and tet for the probability of the number of (in average) to have increaed in number in accordance with the ize of the population increae. A chi2-tet (Figure 4 and Appendix 2) how 0.05 probability for the amount of attention for population growth being related to the increae of the global population for the firt category, containing all the. Figure 4 how expected value for average increae in about population growth per year and oberved value for the average amount of about population growth per year. 12

13 Oberved increae in number of and expected increae in number of (all ) Oberved increae in number of Expected increae in number of Chi2 One-tailed tet: Probability: and Figure 4: Expected value for average increae in about population growth per year, if the amount of would correpond to the increae in global population growth (light blue taple) and oberved value for average amount of about population growth per year (dark blue taple). The lat taple are the oberved and expected value for the 1990 and 2010, which are ten year if counted together, in order to make them equal the previou taple with ten year in each taple. Average (year) v global population (category: all) 5a b 2,532 2,532 3,038 1,2 1,2 5,8 3,696 4, , ,896 Average (year) v global population (category: at leat two entence) 3,038 0,8 0, ,696 3, ,453 1, ,306 3,67 6,123 2,25 Population in billion Average article per iue 6,896 Population in billion Average per iue ,5 13

14 Average (year) v global population (category: at leat five entence) ,038 2, ,22 0, , ,453 0, ,306 2,33 6, ,896 0 Population in billion Average per iue 5c Figure 5: The amount of attention for population growth in Sverige Natur compared to the global population growth. (Appendix 2) Categorie and trend Several trend how up when examining the in the three categorie. In appendix (3, 4, 5), there i a cheme in which the ubject mentioned in connection to population growth in all the eparate are arranged in group (the concept of group i choen in order to avoid confuion with the concept of categorie which refer only to the diviion of in number of entence). In appendix 6, there i a ummary diagram. The group are divided in two ection. Section 1 are group concerning environmental problem mentioned in connection with (uually caued by) population growth, uch a hortage of reource, hortage of food, lo of biodiverity, eroion, toxin, problem related to freh water, handling of wate and climate change. There were alo other problem mentioned in the, uch a hortage of oil for cultivation, the ozone layer etc, but to a maller extent, and therefore got orted under the label other (with a note). Section 2 are political character of the, uch a if they mention global injutice, aociated environmental degradation to conumption, if the ubject of population growth wa dimied, and if contain any uggetion of olution to population growth. Among writer of the, ome eem to be more concerned about population growth than other. Mot abundant i Kai Curry-Lindahl, who wrote even concerned with population growth, although not all of them are treing the ubject very hard. Georg Borgtröm wrote five which all of them contain at leat five entence about population growth, a well a treing the global injutice, and uually alo overconumption in the wetern ocietie. Of all the examined, only a few are entirely about population growth a the main ubject. Thee are for example Inga Thoron in the yearbook of 1972 The Global Crii of Humanity (tranlation of Mänkligheten globala krier ) More People do not caue the poverty (tranlation of Mer folk orakar inte fattigdomen from the pecial iue for the Rio conference of 1992) by María Elena Hurtado, who quetion the number of the amount of people willing to ue birth control, Yearbook 1973: The Global Deforetation Grand Final of Foret Robbery (tranlation of Den globala kogkövlingen baggböleriet tora final ) by Georg Borgtröm. Reult: Section 1 Thi analyi only regard trend within of population growth, not in the whole magazine. Still it i poible to ee that many connect population growth to toxin during the 1960, which probably i due to the overall interet for environmental toxin connected to the publihing of Rachel Caron Silent Spring in (Figure 6) 14

15 Overpopulation and toxin Overpopulation and toxin (all) Overpopulation and toxin (more than five entence) Overpopulation and toxin (more than two entence) 5 33% 25% 22% 17% 17% 18% 16% 25% 14% 6% 8% 3% Figure 6. Thi diagram how the amount (in percent) of each category mentioning toxin in combination with population growth every decade. (Appendix 6). The total amount of i 1950 category 1: 12, category 2: 8, category 3: 2, for 1960 category 1: 12, category 2: 9, category 3: 3, for 1970 category 1: 58, category 2: 40, category 3: 21, for 1980 category 1: 30, category 2: 16, category 3: 5, for 1990 category 1: 38, category 2: 22, category 3: 11 and for 2010 category 1: 11, category 2: 2, category 3: 0 Another trend, in the category all (Figure 7) what eem to be regarded a the mot overwhelming problem, connected to population growth, i lack of reource. All curve decreae with time, apart from the curve concerning population growth and biodiverity which end about at the ame place (9%) a it tarted (8%). (More detail: Appendix 3, 4, 5) 7a. (Appendix 3) Overpopulation and all environmental problem (all) Amount (in percent) of the attention every ubject get per decade 51% Overpopulation and eroion 42% 42% 42% 42% 33% 33% 17% 17% 8% 1950: 12 25% 8% 8% : 12 33% 35% 39% 19% 16% 16% 14% 16% 13% 6% 1 4% 3% 1970: : 30 24% 22% 16% 16% 8% 3% 1990: 38 18% 9% : 11 Overpopulation and food hortage Overpopulation and wate Overpopulation and toxin Overpopulation and reource Overpopulation and biodiverity Overpopulation and freh water 7b. (Appendix 4) 15

16 Overpopulation and all environmental problem (at leat two entence) Amount (in percent) of the attention every ubject get per decade 63% 5 25% 5 38% 13% 13% 1950: 8 33% 33% 22% 44% 11% : 9 41% 38% 23% 18% 18% 13% 3% 1970: 39 31% 25% 44% 25% 13% 6% 1980: 16 33% 24% 24% 24% 14% 5% 52% 1990: : 2 Overpopulation and eroion Overpopulation and food hortage Overpopulation and wate Overpopulation and toxin Overpopulation and reource Overpopulation and biodiverity Overpopulation and freh water 7c. (Appendix 5) Overpopulation and all environmental problem (at leat five entence) Amount (in percent) of the attention every ubject get per decade 10 Overpopulation and eroion Overpopulation and food hortage : 2 67% 6 33% 5 33% 33% 35% 35% 25% 25% : 3 5% 1970: : : : 0 Overpopulation and wate Overpopulation and toxin Overpopulation and reource Overpopulation and biodiverity Overpopulation and freh water Figure 7. Summary table for environmental hazard, uppoed to be cloely connected to population growth (uually referred to a caued by population growth). The table how the proportion of attention, in number of referring to the problem, in percent. A an example, 7a how that during the 1950, 42 percent of the referred to lack of reource a cloely connected to population growth in the category including all, while in category 2 (7b) 50 percent of the during the 1950 refer to lack of reource a cloely connected to population growth. A in all figure, the total amount of i 1950 category 1: 12, category 2: 8, category 3: 2, for 1960 category 1: 12, category 2: 9, category 3: 3, for 1970 category 1: 58, category 2: 40, category 3: 21, for 1980 category 1: 30, category 2: 16, category 3: 5, for 1990 category 1: 38, category 2: 22, category 3: 11 and for 2010 category 1: 11, category 2: 2, category 3: 0 Reult: ection 2 Two group which are cloe but differ, are the not conidering population growth a problem, and the in which the ubject of population growth a a problem i dimied. The group of which do not conider population growth a a problem include mentioning population growth in ome way, but do not problematize it (Figure 8). Since I have already limited the number of uitable for the tudy a thoe concerned with population 16

17 growth a a global iue, thi group i mall (ten ). The other group, in which population growth i dimied, contain in which the ubject may have been preented a a problem, but then till i dimied (Figure 9). Thi group i alo mall (eight ). Article which do not ee overpopulation a a problem Overpopulation not a problem (all) Overpopulation not a problem (more than five entence) Overpopulation not a problem (more than two ) 5 46% 4% 3% 11% Figure 8: Proportion of not conidering population growth a problem in percent (Appendix 6) Total amount of i 1950 category 1: 12, category 2: 8, category 3: 2, for 1960 category 1: 12, category 2: 9, category 3: 3, for 1970 category 1: 58, category 2: 40, category 3: 21, for 1980 category 1: 30, category 2: 16, category 3: 5, for 1990 category 1: 38, category 2: 22, category 3: 11 and for 2010 category 1: 11, category 2: 2, category 3: 0 Article in which overpopulation i dimied Overpopulation dimied (all) Overpopulation dimied (more than five entence) Overpopulation dimied (more than two entence) 5 29% % 18% 1 5% 6% 4% 3% Figure 9: Proportion of in which population growth i dimied, in percent of in each category which dimied population growth a a problem (Appendix 6). Total amount of i 1950 category 1: 12, category 2: 8, category 3: 2, for 1960 category 1: 12, category 2: 9, category 3: 3, for 1970 category 1: 58, category 2: 40, category 3: 21, for 1980 category 1: 30, category 2: 16, category 3: 5, for 1990 category 1: 38, category 2: 22, category 3: 11 and for 2010 category 1: 11, category 2: 2, category 3: 0 In Section 2 containing ome kind of problematizing of overconumption are included. The article mut alo contain the ubject of population growth, but the two ubject (population growth and conumption) mut not necearily be connected in the article (which i the cae in the firt ection). 17

18 Population growth and conumption eem to be of great concern for many author in Sverige Natur (Figure 10), and the interet increae with time, apart from in the category with more than five entence, which how a omewhat inconitent trend poibly a reult of too few in thi category. Thi inconitency in the reult for category 3 how in figure 11 a well. Overpopulation and conumption Overpopulation and conumption (all) Overpopulation and conumption (more than two entence) Overpopulation and conumption (more than five entence) % 8% 33% 22% 17% 5 36% 38% 32% 28% 46% 29% 2 18% Figure 10. Population growth and conumption in percent (Appendix 6) Population growth and unevenly ditributed reource Overpopulation uneven reource (all) Overpopulation uneven reource (more than two entence) Overpopulaton uneven reource % 33% 33% 25% 42% 65% 49% 81% 81% 71% 51% 5 54% Figure 11. Population growth and unevenly ditributed reource, or unevenly ditributed pollution (in percent of mentioning population growth) (Appendix 6) Amount of are 1950 category 1: 12, category 2: 8, category 3: 2, for 1960 category 1: 12, category 2: 9, category 3: 3, for 1970 category 1: 58, category 2: 40, category 3: 21, for 1980 category 1: 30, category 2: 16, category 3: 5, for 1990 category 1: 38, category 2: 22, category 3: 11 and for 2010 category 1: 11, category 2: 2, category 3: 0 The lat figure (12) in thi ection how the ditribution of which contain ome kind of uggetion of olution for the problem of population growth. 18

19 Overpopulation and olution to overpopulation Overpopulaton and olution (all) Overpopulation and olution (more than five entence) Overpopulation and olution (more than two entence) 8 67% 5 22% 17% 17% 13% 5 36% 28% 4 31% 24% 16% 14% Figure 12. Population growth and olution (in percent of mentioning population growth). Thi diagram how that the majority of in ome way mentioning population growth do not ugget a olution to the problem. Mot of them do conider it a problem. A few mean that omething could or hould be done about it but not pecifying what, and only a few of them, the amount hrinking during time, do ugget olution. (Appendix 6) The amount of are 1950 category 1: 12, category 2: 8, category 3: 2, for 1960 category 1: 12, category 2: 9, category 3: 3, for 1970 category 1: 58, category 2: 40, category 3: 21, for 1980 category 1: 30, category 2: 16, category 3: 5, for 1990 category 1: 38, category 2: 22, category 3: 11 and for 2010 category 1: 11, category 2: 2, category 3: 0 There are eleven publihed which in ome way mention population growth. A can be een in the appendix 3, 4, 5, nine of thee eleven contain only one entence regarding population growth, while two contain at leat two entence. And for all the four year, 46 percent of thee which do acknowledge population growth, or a growing population in a global ene, till do not regard population growth a a problem. 46 percent i higher than in any other decade (econd come the 1990 in which eleven percent of the do not regard population growth a a problem). Article The mentioning population growth publihed between 2014 and 2017 are: (1): Living Environmentally Friendly in India (tranlation of Leva miljövänligt i Indien ) by Louie Wileen Bjarke It i difficult to bring environmental awarene to the Indian. We are overpopulated and have an enormou poverty. People make their own prioritie (4): Exodu from the Open Landcape (tranlation of Uttåget ur det öppna landkapet by Ann-Helene Meyer von Bremen. In the [governmental] invetigation of competitivene it i aumed that the demand for food will increae a the population and well-being grow on earth. Likewie, the interet i believed to increae for food-ecurity, health iue and knowledge about the production condition. Thi hould be a benefit for the Swedih farmer, which i highlighted by the LRF, but in the progrereport they do not believe in thi, which i a ign of a particularly ober view 3. Yearbook 2015: Small village with Big Dream (tranlation of Liten by med tora drömmar ) by Anna Axelon About an iolated village in India, which manage by itelf by ue of olar energy. The Indian government face the twofold challenge to expand power-net or eparate olution for all of thoe who are living without acce to electricity today, and to ecure a afe power upply for the entire country. But with a growing population, growing economy and thereby growing emiion of 19

20 carbon dioxide, the indutrialized countrie poe increaingly tringent demand on India to tart reducing emiion (3): Changing carbohydrate into protein (tranlation of Förvandlar kolhydrater till protein ), not igned. In a growing population, there will be more [people] which will have to fight obeity and heart dieae, new invention in the food ector mut have propertie that counteract thi. But there are many who do not want to change their eating habit, which make it important to be able to offer product which tate and feel jut like people are ued to, but are more nutritiou and healthy than before (4): Giant Leap for Africa? (tranlation of Stort prång för Afrika?) by Mat Hellmark Two third of the population outh of Sahara, 621 million people, completely lack acce to electricity and the area total conumption of electricity i maller than Spain. Urbanization, population growth and economic growth make the need for electricity in Africa increae by four percent each year, according to calculation by International Energy Agency. According to the report Power People Planet by Africa Progre Panel the preent ituation provide the continent with an opportunity to take the leading poition when it come to developing utainable energy (5): Threatened Life beneath the Surface (tranlation of Hotat liv under ytan ) by Ylva Johnon One poible explanation for the decreaing fihing tock i a growing population which ue new fihing method (4) The Right Jane for Tarzan (tranlation of Rätt Jane åt Tarzan ) by Mat Hellmark An interview with Jane Goodall: For the nature and the ecoytem globally he ee three main problem: extreme poverty which make people cut the lat tree in deperation. Unutainable lifetyle in the rich world. Population growth. We are o many today. The lat thing i hard to do anything about. But I alo ee that the concioune about the vulnerability of the ecoytem increae among the youth. Johan Rocktröm argue that we are approaching a point where we are many enough to change the development. The mot important meage I would like to mediate i that every individual influence every day. We have a choice, ay Jane Goodall (5): The Doomday Vault (tranlation of Domedagvalvet ) by Ivar Anderen Threatened biodiverity. The population of the earth i growing. The climate get warmer. 75 percent of the biodiverity of agriculture i gone. Our food upply i facing a eemingly unolvable equation. Deep inide the permafrot of the Arctic i an attempt to a olution 9. Årbok 2017: Good Soil Carrie Itelf (tranlation of Bra jord reder ig jälv ) by Marit Lardotter and Okar Sonn Lindell 10. In 2015, the UN found that the tate of the earth field wa o depreing that the year 2015 wa deignated International year of oil. It wa clear that the equation could not be olved: we needed to feed a growing world population by producing more food, while in the ame time, exactly that wa made harder by the agriculture contantly intenifying impoverihment of the earth. 11. Årbok 2017 How Fact Can Win the Battle (tranlation of Så kan fakta vinna fajten ) by Marit Lardotter and Okar Sonn Lindell The chip were free and intead of betting on their lucky number the gambler wa to chooe number from quetion a What do you think i the average life pan in Pakitan?, How many children do you think a woman in Bangladeh give birth to in average? and How many do you think die in nature diater today compared to hundred year ago? ( ) Far from the correct anwer, that the average life pan in Pakitan i 66 year, that a woman in Bangladeh give birth to le than 2.5 children in average and that half a many die of nature diater now compared to 100 year ago even though the population i four time bigger 20

21 And Climate change have led to more extreme weather. Still only half a many people die from natural diater today compared to 100 year ago even though the population ha quadrupled during the ame time And For thoe who by profeion or voluntarily engage it i of coure important to know what to work with, and what to aroue opinion for or againt. I it enible to put effort on birth control in a country in which the birthrate already decreae? (5): Concept Which Change the World (tranlation of Begrepp om förändrar världen, by Sverker Sörlin. About the hitory of the environmentalim: The concept environment wa for Vogt a way to tie together thi whole diverity of phenomena, including the population growth, which he regarded a the mother of all environmental problem Regarding population growth a poitive Article number 2, 2014 (4) Exodu from the Open Landcape, and article number (4): A Giant Leap for Africa differ from the other in uggeting population growth might be a benefit. Not regarding population growth a a problem Article number (5) Concept which change the world. The writer (Sverker Sörlin), implie that William Vogt conidered population growth a problem while he, the author of the article, doe not. There i reaon to quetion thi concluion though, ince the author of the text, Sverker Sörlin, ha written about population growth a one of many caue to environmental detruction before, although nineteen year earlier (yearbook of 1995: The Wetern ociety ha cloed the circle, tranlation of Väterlandet har gått varvet runt ). Regarding population growth a a problem but not o eriou Article number 10: Yearbook of 2017: How fact can win the battle Referring to a growing population a a problem, although not for the environment Article number 4: 2015 (3): Changing carbohydrate into protein Regarding population growth a a threat, but we are not able to do anything Article number (4): The right Jane for Tarzan Five out of eleven, which mention population growth, do not conider population growth a an environmental problem (Article number 6 i till conidered a one which doe conider it a problem, even if peimitic). Thi leave ix : 2014 (1): Living Environmentally Friendly in India, Yearbook 2015: Small village with Big Dream, 2015 (5) Threatened Life Beneath the Surface, 2016 (4) The Right Jane for Tarzan, 2016 (5): The Doomday Vault and Yearbook 2017: Good Soil Carrie Itelf Thee do mention population growth, but only with one entence each, except for 2016 (4) The Right Jane for Tarzan, which doe refer to population growth in two entence. Summary reult The number of over time doe not follow the trend of the increaing problem of the population growth. And there i a decline in the number of with time if looking at which contain at leat two entence. Other trend are the focu on toxin, which i high in all categorie during the 1960, the decline in focu on food hortage and eroion with time, and the dominant focu on hortage of reource during almot all categorie and all decade. Overall, the quetion of global jutice apparently increae with time in the concerned with population growth. There i alo, importantly, a decreae in the ambition to ugget olution to population growth (apart from in the category containing more than five entence), and maybe mot ignificant of all: an increae in dimiing the negative conequence of population growth or 21

22 population growth itelf, a well a an increae in the proportion of which do not conider population growth a problem, although both thee categorie contitute a mall proportion of the total amount of mentioning population growth. Thee finding ugget that omething change between the earlier decade and the lat decade, which ditort the ubject of all three categorie. The reult from do not how a clear decreae in occurrence of about population growth. But they do how irregularitie compared to the from the other decade. None of the from thi lat period propoe any olution to population growth (compared to the next in line, the 1990, in which 14 percent did propoe ome kind of olution to the problem of population growth). Further, 46 percent of the from the 2010 do not regard population growth a a problem (compared to cloet in line, the 1990, during which eleven percent of the did not regard population growth a a problem). Even cloer examination howed that two out of the eleven from the 2010 reaoned about poible benefit of more people globally. In one article from 2015, there are conideration only about the problem with more obeity and other related health problem a conequence of population growth, in another of the eleven, it i expreed that the problem of population growth i about to olve itelf, and finally one of the eleven, the interviewed peron ay it i not poible to do anything about the global population growth. Dicuion 1. Categorie of ilencing according to Diana Coole Coole (199:2016) ugget the ilencing of the ubject of population growth can be divided in five different, but till interconnected, dicoure of ilencing: population-haming, populationcepticim, population-declinim, population-decompoing and population-fatalim 16. Coole decribe the dicoure, or ditinction, a analytical and profoundly political, that they overlap or work in conjunction and that they all hare antipathy to the Malthuian equation between population growth and reource hortage (196:2016). The firt dicoure, population-haming, i probably a reult of the Firt World attempt to introduce populationcontrol in Third World countrie, with method which were accued of racim and other colonial attitude. The population-haming dicoure denie that there i an objective demographic growth problem and charge neo-malthuian for pervaive upicion that limiting population actually mean limiting certain categorie of people who are deemed redundant or undeirable (Coole, 199:2013). It i poible to ee apect of thi dicoure in a few of the in Sverige Natur. One of thee i Concept which change the world which ugget that the author (Sverker Sörlin) doe not agree with Vogt about population growth being an environmental problem. It could alo be een in the two which conider the benefit of growing population: 2014 (4) Exodu from the Open Landcape, and 2015 (4): A Giant Leap for Africa, both of them poibly affected by population-haming, and alo the dicoure population-cepticim. Coole preent two kind of population-cepticim: the firt one doubt that there i any longer a population problem ince fertility i declining almot everywhere (202:2016), and the other one i a political variant ( ) that ugget population growth i not detrimental anyway (202:2016). Probably thi i the cae with the tatement alo in article 10, yearbook of 2017 How fact can win the battle, and the quetion: I it enible to put effort on birth control in a country in which the birthrate already decreae? Concerning thi lat tatement, it might be intereting to know that the fertility rate in Bangladeh i 2.4 while for example the fertility rate in Madagacar it i 4.6. The lower fertility rate of 16 Diana Coole (2013) Too many bodie? The return and diavowal of the population quetion, Environmental Politic, 22:2,