Case study: China s one-child policy

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Rose Wade
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1 Human Population

Case study: China s one-child policy In 1970, China s 790 million people faced starvation The government instituted a onechild policy China s growth rate

2 Case study: China s one-child policy In 1970, China s 790 million people faced starvation The government instituted a onechild policy China s growth rate plummeted In 1984, the policy exempted ethnic minorities and farmers Unintended consequences: killing female infants and a blackmarket trade in teenage girls

change, population and production will suddenly decrease In a sustainable

3 Computer simulations predict the future Simulations project trends in population, food, pollution, and resource availability If the world does not change, population and production will suddenly decrease In a sustainable world, population levels off, production and resources stabilize, and pollution declines

4 Population Growth All population principles apply to humans because environmental factors limit population growth. Humans can raise the environment s carrying capacity through technology.

5 Birth/Death Rate Defining population Population Density = Population Area = # births or deaths per year Total population Population Growth = births deaths Rate (r) Total population Rule of 70 states doubling = 70% = 0.70 time (years) r (%) r (decimal)

6 Demography Demography = the application of population ecology to the study of humans Demographers study population size, Density and distribution, Age structure, sex ratio, And birth, death, immigration, and emigration rates

7 Population size and density Nobody knows the ultimate human population size But numbers are not the only important aspect Highest population density areas are heavily impacted by urbanization, pollution, and fossil fuel use.

8 Population distribution Humans are unevenly distributed around the globe. Unpopulated areas tend to be environmentally sensitive (high S value in the IPAT equation)

9 Age structure affects future population size Having many individuals in young age groups results in high reproduction and rapid population growth Age pyramid of the U.S. in 2005

10 A changing age structure poses challenges Many populations are getting older Older people need care and financial assistance But, also reduces the number of dependent children and crime rates

11 Sex ratios Naturally occurring sex ratios for humans slightly favors males (100 females born to 106 males) In China, 120 boys were reported for 100 girls Cultural gender preferences, combined with the government s one-child policy, led to selective abortion of female fetuses Had the undesirable social consequences of many single Chinese men Teenage girls were kidnapped and sold as brides

12 Population growth depends on various factors Whether a population grows, shrinks, or remains stable depends on: Rates of birth, death, and migration Birth and immigration add individuals Death and emigration remove individuals Technological advances led to dramatic decline in human death rates Widening the gap between birth rates and death rates resulting in population expansion

13 Falling growth rates do not mean fewer people Falling rates of growth do not mean a decreasing population, but only that rates of increase are slowing

14 Factors affecting total fertility rate Total fertility rate (TFR) = the average number of children born per female Replacement fertility = TFR that keeps the size of a population stable Increasing urbanization decreases TFR More children go to school More women enter the labor force

15 Life expectancy is increasing Natural rate of population change = due to birth and death rates alone In countries with good sanitation, health care, and food, people live longer Life expectancy = average number of years that an individual is likely to continue to live Increased due to reduced rates of infant mortality

16 The demographic transition Demographic transition = a model of economic and cultural change to explain the declining death and birth rates in industrializing nations As mortality decreases, there is less need for large families. There is a shift to quality of life.

17 The demographic transition s four stages Population growth is seen as a temporary phenomenon

18 Is the demographic transition universal? It has occurred in Europe, U.S., Canada, Japan, and other nations over the past years But, it may or may not apply to all developing nations The transition could fail in cultures That place greater value on childbirth or Grant women fewer freedoms For people to attain the material standard of living of North Americans, we would need the natural resources of four and a half more Earths

19 Gender equity 2/3 of people who cannot read, and 60% of those living in poverty are women We are still a long way from achieving gender equality

20 Population policies and family planning work Many countries provide incentives, education, contraception, and reproductive health care Funding and policies that encourage family planning lower population growth rates in all nations Thailand has an educational based approach to family planning and its growth rate fell from 2.3% to 0.7% Brazil, Mexico, Iran, Cuba, and other developing countries have active programs

21 Poverty and population growth are correlated Poorer societies have higher growth rates than wealthier societies. Consistent with the demographic transition theory. 99% of the next billion people added will be born in poor, less developed regions that are least able to support them

22 Wealth also produces severe environmental impacts The population problem does not exist only within poor countries Affluent societies have enormous resource consumption and waste production People use resources from other areas, as well as from their own Individuals ecological footprints are huge One American has as much environmental impact as 6 Chinese or 12 Indians or Ethiopians

23 The wealth gap and population growth cause conflict The stark contrast between affluent and poor societies causes social and environmental stress The richest 20% use 86% of the world s resources Leaves 14% of the resources for 80% of the world s people to share Tensions between haves and have-not s are increasing

Chapter 8: Human Population

Chapter 8: Human Population Concepts and terms to know: Doubling rate Quality of life IPAT model (I = P x A x T x S) Demography Population size Population density/distribution Age structure Sex ratios