Special Committee Futuristic Security Council Topic B: Resolving Tensions in the Second Cold War. Chairs: Lucca Domingos Camila Sarmento

Transcription

1 Special Committee Futuristic Security Council Topic B: Resolving Tensions in the Second Cold War Chairs: Lucca Domingos Camila Sarmento 1

2 INDEX Statistics/ Important Facts..3 7 Background Information. 3 Timeline...8 Key Terms...17 Guiding Questions.. 18 Further Research..19 2

3 Statistics/ Important Fact (Present Days, 2015) Background Information Time frame of events: Security Council Background Under the Charter, the Security Council has primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. It has 15 Members, and each Member has one vote. Under the Charter, all Member States are obligated to comply with Council decisions. Only 5 members are permanent members and have VETO power, the other 10 members are non permanent members elected for two year terms by the General Assembly. From its creation till 2020, the Permanent members were: China, France, Russia Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. However in 2020 there was a slight change in the permanent members, as one more state was added, making it 6 permanent members, and now they are: China, France, Germany, Russia Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. While the elected non permanent members (with end of term date), are: Argentina (2021), Netherlands (2022), Iran (2021), Australia (2021), Chile (2022), Lebanon (2022), Egypt (2021), Israel (2022), India(2021) and Pakistan (2021). German Addition: Germany was added to the permanent members in December 23rd, 2019, due to the country s stability and influence on the world. Still in December, the military leader General Reltih Floda Izan conducted a coup d`état and overthrew the German Democratic Party, establishing a dictatorial regime. Which was supported by 93% of Germany s population in a referendum carried in Cold War II background Much has changed since Russia's decision to annex Crimea in 2014, however, old enmities still thrive, feeding off the rancour that has existed since the first Cold War began. The world has once again 3

4 been split into two blocs, in 2020, with the USA and the Russian Federation going head to head. With neither party showing signs of backing off, nuclear war is imminent. Russia has annexed all of Ukraine, and through several strategic treaties has obtained the facto control of the states that were originally a part of the Soviet Union, turning the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) into the Union of Eurasian States (EES), with only Georgia holding out. After NATO planes bombed Russian aircraft factories in Rostov on Don, in 2049, Russia has armed over 200 Sarmat Heavy Intercontinental ballistic missiles and has reportedly begun arming all of their RS 24 Yars ICBM's (Inter Continental Ballistic Missile) as well as bombing NATO bases across Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. The United States, along with it's NATO allies, has condemned Russian actions in the UN, and has justified their attacks on Russian bases across the newly formed Union as attempts to enforce the basic right to self determination of every country. Israel has annexed the Sinai Peninsula and parts of Lebanon and Syria as well as the West Bank and Gaza, and has subsequently set up military bases in the region with the capability to launch nuclear warheads. There have been allegations of United States and United Kingdom involvement in the establishment of these bases. A large number of Palestinian refugees have fled from these regions to Jordan and Egypt, or into UN Camps, established in Lebanon. India has left the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations and has broken all trade with China, after repeated Chinese incursions in what they claim is their sovereign territory and has strengthened trade relations with the EU and South American nations, such as Chile. China has created a 2,000,000 strong border force present from Aksai Chin to Tamang. Beijing demands that India withdraw its troops up to 200 km from the current border as it believes it to be Chinese territory. In the midst of 2049, due to continuous support of the USA to India, China broke all economic relations with the US and declared its position in the world as the strongest of the superpower. 4

5 The world was now divided into 3 blocs led by USA, China and the Russian Federation (also called the EES). China also placed ICBM's and MRV s turned to both the USA and Russia. China in an attempt to gather allies, improved relations with Pakistan, Iran, and Lebanon through military and financial aid. This act has also increased regional tensions in the middle East, with three nuclear powers at the brink of war. (detailed events explained in timeline) Antarctica / Antarctica War Background Until the 2030 s, there were many countries claiming territories of the South Pole (Antarctic Continent), including Australia, France, Norway, the UK, Argentina, Chile, and New Zealand. The US, China and Russia reserved rights to make claims without having formalizing it, until the late 1930 s when all three nations claimed the. Many other countries did not actually recognized most of these claims and were still highly interested in the region due to the myriad valuable natural resources available on the continent. Antarctica is undeniably important, till today (2050), to scientific research and abundant in natural resources. At the moment, the countries cited above claim around more than 3/4 of the continent's total area with some of their claims overlapping. Such countries are a part of the Antarctic Treaty but most of the members of the treaty do not actually recognize their claims. The Antarctic Treaty was first signed in Washington on December 1st, 1959 by countries whose scientists had been active in and around Antarctica during the International Geophysical Year ( ), as a result of a worldwide momentum which called for an extreme action, and the demilitarization of Antarctica. The main 5

6 commitment that this treaty demanded from the signatories was guaranteeing Antarctica's future peaceful usage, aiming to benefit all humanity. In addition, the conservation of the parties' efforts toward the avoidance of strife. Nevertheless, this treaty does not recognize any territorial claim made by any country in the past, present or future. The treaty entered into force in 1961 and was acceded to by many other nations. On July 3rd, 2038, a second Antarctic Treaty was signed, also in washington, but this time the US, China and Russia were added to the treaty. The aim of the the second Antarctic Treaty was to ensure that no country would extract resources from the continent and to maintain peace in the area. The first country to make official claims over the Antarctic territory was the Great Britain in However, a Norwegian explorer reached Antarctica before Great Britain and placed down a Norwegian flag in order to claim the territory as theirs. This was just one of the many expeditions made by many countries to the continent. In 2034 a Chinese authority tried to ship 3,400 Chineses to Antarctica to develop the first city and claim Antarctica as Chinese, however the idea was condemned by the UN and China withdrew. In the first decade of the 20th Century, three countries United Kingdom, Argentina and Chile claimed a part of the region called the Antarctic Peninsula to be rightfully theirs for sovereignty, but these territories claims overlap, creating tense conflict between such nations. In the 4th decade of the 21th Century, three countries China, USA and Russia also claimed the Western Antarctica (region that was never claimed before), creating tension and conflict among the superpowers of the world. 6

7 With the shift in temperature, due to climate change, in the years of 2045 to 2050, Antarctica lost 45% of its land territory, which was originally composed by ice and 97% of its ice cap, which before covered 98% of Antarctica. This brought more tension to the territorial disputes over Antarctica. With the loss of almost all the ice in Antarctica Continent, scientists were able to study the Antarctic soil and discovered that it contains more than billion barrels of oil reserve, which is equivalent to 200 or more years worth of reserves of oil. Much more than what Venezuela had in 2015, when it was considered the holder of the largest oil reserves in the world. Immediately after the discovery in late 2047, claims for Antarctica started pop up again and with more intensity than ever before. The countries were clearly desperate for the oil to reconstruct their economies, which had been really badly shaken by the increase in sea level, which submerged many important economic and cultural cities of these countries. On January 2050, the American president, Jonh Marshall, spoke at the UN urging the sovereignty of the Western side of Antarctica due to the fact that it was the country who suffered the most with the increase in sea levels. The Security Council could not agree with any solution for the American urges. All resolution proposed by the US were vetoed by Russian Federation and China. On february, 2050, president Marshall ordered the installation of 40 oil wells in Western Antarctica. Soon after, February 8th, Russia and China declared war on the USA over the region of Antarctica, claiming that the US violated the Antarctic Treaty. 7

8 Timeline February 4: Germany added to the P July 1: The Eurasian Union is formed, and as a result Russia has de facto control Belarus and Kazakhstan. Western Media nicknames the EEU "the New Soviet Union." 2021 July 2: Armenia joins the Eurasian Union August 11: A second Minsk Protocol (deal between Ukraine and pro russian rebels) is signed after the first one falls apart November 1: Kyrgyzstan joins the Eurasian Union February 16: Newly elected Russian president, Vladimir Nilats Vehcaborg, meets with the american president at the White House. Vehcaborg speaks of Russian economic problems which he states were threatening the survival of its regime, and advises that if a firm stand is taken on Ukraine, then Vehcaborg will be deterred from war January 29: Iran and Egypt join the CSTO January 30: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu II makes a speech condemning Egypt for joining the CSTO. He says "The United States has always promised to protect Israel, and now Israel must promise to protect the United States." He threatens to renounce the 1979 Israel Egypt Peace Treaty if Egypt declared war on the United States in the event that war breaks out between the United States and Russia. 8

9 2026 March 14: Transnistria, a region of Moldova, joins the Eurasian Union. Moldova retaliates by cutting off a Russian Romanian trade route that goes through Moldovan territory. Vehcaborg considers this action an act of war March 20: Russian troops occupy Moldova. The Moldovans cannot put up any organized resistance May 27: Nilats Vehcaborg orders the Russian Navy to begin an expansion program with the goal of returning to its pre 1991 size by July 31: China signs pact with Pakistan, Lebanon, and Iran, pledging support in the development of a MIRV nuclear missile to match India's Agni V September 26: China signs multi billion dollar trade agreements with both Chile and Argentina December 18: Nilats asks advisors to begin drawing up plans for an invasion of Ukraine December 21:China strengthens its troops on the Eastern Sino Indian border nearing Sikkhim and Arunachal Pradesh January 24: 39 Egyptian soldiers are killed in a border skirmish with Israel 2031 March 18: Israel once again refuses to allow the IAEA to inspect the Negev Nuclear Research Center April 16: Estonia and Latvia join the EEU 9

10 2032 June 22: Egypt announces that it will begin a program of nuclear armament to ensure that future peace is maintained. USA and China denounce and criticize Egypts act, while Russia supports the initiative October 17: Egypt imports 200 SS 27 Topol M warheads from Russia April 21: Vehcaborg calls for a special session of the Duma. During his speech, he renounces all START treaties, essentially beginning nuclear rearmament October 26: Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, says in an interview that he does not approve of Egypt's actions November 30: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu officially announces that Israel possesses and is developing nuclear weapons December 1: Chinese authority tried to ship 3,400 Chineses to Antarctica December 16: The Arab League condemns what it terms Israeli hypocrisy in manufacturing nuclear weapons whilst pretending to want a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction December 30: China signs a pact with Iran in which it agrees to provide military support to one another if attacked by another country s airforce or naval forces February 14: Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Jordan simultaneously announce the start of their Nuclear Weapons program May 2: American attempts to make Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Jordan sign Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty fail. 10

11 2038 June 16: Arab League nations sign a pact with China which entails increasing arms purchases from China and receiving Chinese assistance in establishing their Nuclear Weapons programs June 30: The United States of America condemns the actions of the Arab nations and China and advises against the escalation of tensions in the historically volatile region July 3: Second Antarctic Treaty Signed January 18: Iraq, Iran and Syria attempt to justify increased arms purchases by announcing in a joint press conference of their Chiefs of Army Staff that they will be used in the fight against ISIS August 15: India strengthens troops on Line of Actual Control; supplies them with additional heavy armaments and creates two new divisions of troops for the region March 27: China announces that the region from Aksai Chin to Tamang will be connected by road by July November 19: NATO summit declares unconditional support for Ukraine if it's sovereignty is violated. Reaffirms the importance of the right of every nation to self determination December 27: 11 Israeli civilians killed in Jerusalem by rocket fire from HAMAS February 17: Israeli Defence Forces bomb Hamas headquarters in Gaza, killing Mahmoud al Zahar and Khaled Mashal. 11

12 2042 July 5: President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan is assassinated by the Taliban. There are riots and clashes between the army and the Taliban across Afghanistan.The President of the United States of America laments the loss and sends 10,000 troops to Afghanistan in attempts to counter terrorism November 12: Iran sends in troops, as a humanitarian intervention, citing a responsibility to protect Afghani citizens, based on respect for the principles that underlie international law, especially the underlying principles of law relating to sovereignty, peace and security, human rights, and armed conflict May 14: Tajikistan and Uzbekistan join the EEU June 26: Iranian troops defeat Taliban fighters, however keep troops in Afghanistan until next elections.the United States of America evacuate troops from the region.the president of Iran calls this a selfish act on the part of the United States July 8: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemns Iranian actions as being an infringement of their ally, Afghanistan's sovereignty August 19: During a visit to India, Nilats Vehcaborg proclaims support for Iran, encourages India to also accept that Iranian actions are for the benefit of Afghanistan October 27: Border skirmish between Indian and Chinese forces in the disputed area of Tamang, 89 soldiers dead November 24: US send 200 thousand troops to help India December 15: China increases the number of troops on Line of Actual Control ten fold. 12

13 2046 March 3: 42 people are killed in Sevastopol, as Ukrainian forces clash with Pro Russian separatists, violating the ceasefire. Amongst the dead are ethnic Russians April 15: Nilats begins mobilising troops on the border with Ukraine May 12: Mossad releases reports suggesting that Egypt armed and trained HAMAS as troops for attack on Jerusalem in April 23: Discovering of mass amounts of oil in Antarctica May 18: NATO hold emergency summit to discuss Ukraine issue May 22: NATO releases statement reminding Russia that an invasion of Ukraine would be met with a strong, possibly armed, response June 14: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu makes the findings of Mossad report public, says in a speech that the civilians must be avenged and that Arab nations would pay for each civilian life with a thousand of their troops June 28: Following another clash of troops at the border in Nathu La, India announces an embargo on any trade with China and formally leaves the BRICS association July 5: The fallout from the embargo has had severe consequences for both nations, creating mass unemployment and a sharp fall in the value of the Indian Rupee July 18: China announces that the road connecting Aksai Chin and Tamang has been completed. It moves over 1,000,000 troops to the region, drawing from it's reserves. 13

14 2047 August 14: Attempts at beginning bilateral talks between India and China have thus far failed, and the global economy begins to feel the impact January 30: Georgia refuses to join CSTO or EEU. Russia begins mobilising troops in neighbouring Armenia February 28: The CSTO convenes their summit, reaffirms their casus foederis and commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state to be an armed attack against them all April 15: The EEU convenes March 28: Israel begins mobilising troops in Sinai Peninsula, West Bank, Gaza and on borders with Lebanon and Jordan June 3: The Russian invasion of Ukraine begins with the Russian Air Force attacking several targets in Eastern Ukraine. The Russian Navy attacks several targets in the Black Sea. Libya, Lebanon, Belgium and Switzerland declare neutrality. The United States orders a general mobilization of its troops. Meanwhile, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan join the Eurasian Union July 15: Israeli troops march on Sinai peninsula, West Bank, Gaza and on the Golan Heights August 27: USA and it's allies try to pass a resolution in the UNSC, condemning Russian actions and demanding a ceasefire. It is, however, vetoed October 2: Arab forces have been quickly over run by the IDF. Israel has annexed the Sinai Peninsula and parts of Lebanon and Syria as well as the West Bank and Gaza. 14

15 2048 November 5: NATO and the EU issue to an ultimatum to Russia: Withdraw from Ukraine or face war. Iran declares neutrality. Switzerland orders a general mobilization of its troops. The United States reinstates the draft to include all able bodied adult males born on or after November 5, 1978 who are not currently enrolled in an educational institution. Russia annexes Novorossiya December 22: IDF begins rounding up ethnic Arabs in Israel, along with any known supporters of the Arabs or Hamas and expelling them from the country. No records are being maintained of the refugees January 28: The last Ukrainian forces are expelled from Donetsk and Luhansk May 29: NATO launches attacks on Russian naval ships in the North Sea and in the Arctic Ocean June 7: NATO planes bomb Russian aircraft factories in Rostov on Don, near Ukraine. Russia responds by sanctioning the export of its oil to all NATO countries.china follows by halting trade with the United States of America and to the EEU July 20: China breaks all economic relations with the US and declares itself as the world s strongest superpower August 12: Russia begins arming nuclear warhead equipped ICBMs November 19: China places ICBM s and MRV s turned to both USA and Russia December 14: Russia carries out strikes on the newly established NATO bases in Poland, Romania and Bulgaria.China demands that the Indian troops on the Line of Actual Control be 15

16 moved 200 km towards the Indian mainland as it is a breach of sovreignity. Prime minister Narendra Modi responds by willing to participate in peace talks, however all attempts fail January 2: USA claimed sovereignty of the Western side of Antarctica February 6: USA ordered the installation of 40 oil wells in Antarctica February 15: Russia and China declared war over the USA February 20: FCC Convenes. 16

17 Key Term Cold War T he state of political hostility that existed between the Soviet bloc countries and the US led Western powers from 1945 to 1990 characterized by measures of open warfare such as threats and propaganda. Non Proliferation Treaty is a landmark international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament. M.A.D. mutually assured destruction (MAD), is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy in which a full scale use of high yield weapons of mass destruction by two or more opposing sides would cause the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender. CSTO The Collective Security Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance, acting as counterpart to the NATO alliance, which was signed on 15 May EEU An economic union created in 2014 by a treaty signed by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. The Eurasian Economic Union treaty allows citizens of EEU member countries the right to work in any other member country without having to obtain special work permits and is expected to reduce trade barriers among members. 17

18 Guiding Questions How can the use of weapons of mass destruction in on going global wars can be prevented? How can world peace be secured? How can the invasion of several countries by the Eurasian Union (Russia) be resolved? How to deal with dispute over sovereignty on the Indo Sino border? How to deal with Israeli occupation of the West Bank? How to limit the development of weapons of mass destruction in countries of the Middle East? How to deal with EEU expansionism? 18

19 Further Research Further Research for this Committee can be done, but information must be approved by the chairs. If the Delegate would like to predict a fact or state what will happen in the future (from ), they must find relevant statistics or information (from today) that proves that what the delegate is saying can happen in a determined time frame. The information must be sent via to the chairs, for the verification of veracity and approval: 16domingosl@pasb.com.br 16nettoc@pasb.com.br 19