Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy of the Russian Federation

Transcription

1 Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy of the Russian Federation Founder & Special Advisor, PIR Center Head, Center for Global Trends and International Organizations, Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Professor, MGIMO Lecture 1 October 2, orlov@pircenter.org

2 LECTURE 1. FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: UNDERSTANDING THE PRIORITIES AND THREAT PERCEPTIONS (1) 2

3 PART 1. RUSSIA IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT

4 What goals should Russia pursue in the 21 st century? (closed question, one answer) Return a superpower status-the one the USSR had 31 Be one of some developed and politically highpowered countries 58 Become a leader for the former Soviet Union 7 Russia should not pursue any global aims The WCIOM opinion poll conducted in May,

5 Will Russia manage to become a great power in the nearest years? (closed question, one answer) Most probably,yes 35 Most probably,not 11 Russia is already a great power The WCIOM opinion poll conducted in May,

6 What shall Russia do to be considered as a great power? (open question, no more than 3 answers) Efficient and well-armed army Willpower and spirit of the people Good and strong President 5 Vast reserves of natural resources The world's largest country 5 Independent policy Russian foreign policy Economic development of the country Nuclear weapons World's best weapon The WCIOM opinion poll conducted in May,

7 RUSSIA PARTICIPATES IN KEY GLOBAL FORUMS G20 G7 Canada Germany Italy Japan The US The UK France P5 Russia China BRICS Brazil India South Africa Australia The EU Argentina Indonesia Mexico South Korea Saudi Arabia Turkey 7

8 FOUR PILLARS OF RUSSIA S POWER AND STABILITY Nuclear weapons Energy resources High educational level Cultural heritage 8

9 ARSENALS OF NUCLEAR-WEAPON STATES (ESTIMATES) Country Deployed warheads Ready-to-use non-strategic nuclear warheads Nuclear warheads in reserve Total inventory 1, ,050 6,450 1,600-2,750 6, Source: Federation of American Scientists, May

10 WHAT AROUSES ANXIETY AND CONCERN IN YOUR MIND REGARDING THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION? (no more than 3 answers) Nuclear war Chemical and radiation contamination of water, air, products Clogging the planet with waste International terrorism Depletion of natural resources for energy and nutrition Deforestraction Epidemics, the spread of AIDS Natural disaster Climate change Plants and animals extinctions Planet overpopulation Ozone layer deplition Space disaster, meteorite or comet collision Nothing arouses anxiety and concern The FOM Public Poll, April

11 USA United Kingdom France China India Israel Pakistan North Korea Iran Al-Qaeda Chechen terrorists USA United Kingdom France China India Israel Pakistan North Korea Iran USA United Kingdom France China India Israel Pakistan North Korea Russia Other countries WHO WILL USE OR THREATEN TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS?(1) Which of following states, in your opinion, poses a threat of use of WMD (%) From which country does the threat of use of nuclear weapon emanate?(%) Which of the countries or organizations poses a threat to Russia associated with the use of WMD? Opinion Poll "Attitudes in the Russian Federation towards WMD Proliferation and Terrorism". PIR Center Report 2014 FOM opinion poll 2017 Survey of the WCIOM 11

12 WHO WILL USE OR THREATEN TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS?(2) Heard about the threat of a nuclear attack against South Korea and the United States by North Korea 81% Believe North Korea has the intention to strike 39% Don't believe North Korea has the intention to strike 43% Consider North Korea a potential aggressor 13% Believe that if the weapon is used it is most likely to be against the United States Believe that if the weapon is used it is most likely to be against South Korea Believe that if the weapon is used, it is most likely to be against Russia 3% 51% 33% Propose to give countries freedom in developing nuclear weapons 41% Consider it necessary to isolate countries developing nuclear weapons from the international community 38% Believe Russia should mediate in negotiations in the Korean peninsula conflict 73% Believe Russia should not participate in solving the conflict 19% The VCIOM Public Poll, May

13 ENERGY RESOURCES International Herald Tribune, January 9,

14 Leading global oil and gas producers, 2018 Oil Natural gas Country Mln tones per annum Country Bln cubic meters per annum Saudi Arabia Russia USA 543,0 Iraq 218,9 Canada 218,2 Iran 216,4 China 199,7 The UAE 182,4 Kuwait 152,7 Brazil 136,7 USA 749,2 Russia 579,4 Iran 202,4 Qatar 181,2 Canada 152,0 China 138,4 Norway 116,6 Saudi Arabia 109,4 Algeria 91,3 Australia 91,2 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy,

15 ROSATOM GLOBAL PRESENCE, 2018 Geographic coverage: 50 states Foreign orders: $ 133,50 bln Portfolio for 2018 year: 36 blocks Source: 15

16 World largest economies, 2018 Country Annual GDP at current prices (US$ millions) Inflation (%) Unemployment level (%) USA 18, ,9 China 11,199 2,0 4,6 Japan 4,939-0,1 3,1 Germany 3,466 0,5 4,3 United Kingdom 2,618 0,6 4,8 France 2,465 0,2 10,0 India 2,263 4,9 3,5 Italy 1,849-0,1 11,5 Brazil 1,796 8,7 11,5 Russia 1,578 2,5 4,9 Canada 1,529 1,4 7,1 Spain 1,232-0,2 19,4 Mexico 1,045 2,8 4,0 Source: The World Bank, April The World Factbook (CIA),

17 RUSSIA S MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS IN 2018 China Germany Netherlands Belarus Turkey USA South Korea Poland Japan Kazakhstan France Italy Export Import Source: Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation (January - July, 2018) 17

18 Position HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX: G7, RUSSIA, AND BRICS COUNTRIES, 2018 Life expectancy at birth (years) Expected years of schooling (years) Gross national income per capita (PPP US$) Human Development Index Value 5 Germany , Canada , The US , The UK , Japan , France , Italy , Argentina , Oman , Russia , Montenegro , Bulgaria , Brazil , China , South Africa , India ,353 6, Source: Human Development Report

19 Russia s cultural heritage 19

20 TOP-10 LANGUAGES SPOKEN IN TODAY'S WORLD (MLN SPEAKERS) Language Number of countries COUNTRIES MLN PEOPLE 1. Chinese Spanish English 118 China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Macau, Cambodia 1,299 Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Spain, USA, Venezuela, Peru, Chile, Cuba, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, 442 Uruguay, Panama USA, UK, Canada, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, Jordania, Zimbabwe, Mexico, Barbados, Singapore, Namibia, Israel, Sri Lanka, Germany, Puerto Rico, Japan, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea, Zambia, Philippines, Italy, GUAM, Venezuela, Honduras, Malawi, Denmark Arab 58 Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Libya, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Palestinian authority, Israel, Iran, France, Oman, Turkey, Argentina, UAE, Kuwait, Chad, Bahrain, Niger, Tanzania, USA, Netherlands, Belgium, Eritrea, Malta, Qatar, Nigeria 5. Hindi 4 India, South Africa, Bangladesh, Uganda, Yemen Bengal 4 Bangladesh, India, UAE, Saudi Arabi Portuguese 15 Brazil, Portugal, France, Paraguay, South Africa, USA, India, Luxembourg, Canada, Switzerland, Belgium, Germany, Angola, Mozambique, Uruguay Russian Japanese 2 Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Latvia, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Israel, Georgia, Germany, Turkmenistan, Lithuania, USA, Tajikistan, Armenia, Poland 154 Japan, USA, Brazil, Peru, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Singapore, Germany, Paraguay, Australia, UK, Taiwan Lahnda 6 Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore 119 Source: the encyclopedia «Ethnologue»,

21 USAGE OF LANGUAGES FOR WEBSITES CONTENT, 2018 (%) % web pages English Russian German Spanish Japanese French Portuguese Italian Chinese Farsi 6,2 6,2 5,1 4,2 4,1 2,8 2,5 2 1,9 52,3 Source: Statistics on the use of different languages on the Internet, W3Techs,