2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll

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1 2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll Conducted by the University of Maryland in conjunction with Zogby International With special thanks to the Carnegie Corporation of New York Shibley Telhami, Principal Investigator Nonresident Senior Fellow, Saban Center at Brookings Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development, University of Maryland EMBAGOED UNTIL 10:00 AM, THURSDAY AUGUST 5, 2010

2 2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll Survey conducted June 29 -July 20, 2010 in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and UAE Sample size: 3,976 Margin of error: +/- 1.6%

3 Key Poll Findings Among the key poll findings are: A substantial change in the assessment of President Obama, both as President of the United States and of Obama personally. Remarkably stable views on the Arab-Israeli conflict and the prospects of its resolution A majority of the Arab public now see a nuclear-armed Iran as being better for the Middle East

4 Samples and Polling Dates Country Sample Margin of Start End Size Error Date Date Egypt 818 +/ /29/10 7/18/10 Saudi Arabia 812 +/ /30/10 7/16/10 UAE 512 +/ /30/10 7/14/10 Morocco 816 +/ /30/10 7/20/10 Lebanon 509 +/ /29/10 7/13/10 Jordan 509 +/ /30/10 7/16/10

5 United States & the Middle East

6 United States & the Middle East How would you describe your views of President Barack Obama of the United States? Positive Neutral Negative 62 23

7 United States & the Middle East How would you describe your attitudes toward the Obama Administration policy in the Middle East? Hopeful Neither hopeful nor discouraged Discouraged 63 15

8 United States & the Middle East When you look back at the past year of the Obama Administration, which one of the following policies are you most disappointed with? 2010 Palestine/Israel 61 Iraq 27 Attitudes toward Islam 5 Afghanistan 4 Human rights 1 Spreading democracy 1 Economic assistance 1

9 United States & the Middle East When you look back at the past year of the Obama Administration, which one of the following policies are you most pleased with? 2010 Palestine/Israel 1 Iraq 3 Attitudes toward Islam 20 Afghanistan 1 Human rights 8 Spreading democracy 5 Economic assistance 13

10 United States & the Middle East Generally speaking, is your attitude toward the United States Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable

11 United States & the Middle East What TWO steps by the United States would improve your views of the United States the most? Israel-Palestine peace agreement Withdrawal from Iraq Stopping aid to Israel Withdrawal from Arabian Peninsula Pushing more to spread democracy More economic aid to the region Stopping aid to Arab governments 2 2 3

12 United States & the Middle East Which TWO of the following factors do you believe are most important in driving American policy in the Middle East? Protecting Israel Controlling oil Weakening the Muslim world Preserving regional and global dominance Preventing spread of nuclear weapons Promoting peace and stability Fighting terrorism Spreading human rights Promoting democracy 5 5 4

13 United States & the Middle East Which of the following is closest to your views in describing US President Barack Obama? 2010 Unfavorable view of him and I am pessimistic about his foreign policy 51 Favorable personal view of him, but I don't think the American system will allow him to have a successful foreign policy 38 Favorable personal view of him and I am hopeful about his foreign policy 5

14 United States & the Middle East Generally speaking, is your attitude about the American people 2010 (All) 36 and over Under 36 Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable

15 Arab-Israeli Conflict

16 Arab-Israeli Conflict Describe your attitude toward Israel s power: Very powerful Has its strengths and weaknesses Weaker than it looks

17 Arab-Israeli Conflict Describe your attitude toward Israel s power: (2010) 36 and over Under 36 Very powerful Has its strengths and weaknesses Weaker than it looks 46 43

18 Arab-Israeli Conflict Which of the following statements is closer to your view? Prepared for peace if Israel is willing to return all 1967 territories including East Jerusalem, and Arab governments should put more effort into this Prepared for peace if Israel is willing to return all 1967 territories including East Jerusalem, but Israel will never give up these territories easily Even if Israel returns all 1967 territories, Arabs should continue to fight

19 Arab-Israeli Conflict Which of the following statements is closer to your view? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 Prepared for peace if Israel is willing to return all 1967 territories including East Jerusalem, and Arab governments should put more effort into this Prepared for peace if Israel is willing to return all 1967 territories including East Jerusalem, but Israel will never give up these territories easily Even if Israel returns all 1967 territories, Arabs should continue to fight 14 11

20 Arab-Israeli Conflict What do you believe motivates Israeli policies in the region and American support for these policies? Israel decides on its own interests and influences the US Israel is a tool of American foreign policy US and Israel have mutual interests

21 Arab-Israeli Conflict What do you believe motivates Israeli policies in the region and American support for these policies? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 Israel decides on its own interests and influences the US Israel is a tool of American foreign policy US and Israel have mutual interests 32 33

22 Arab-Israeli Conflict What do you believe is the likely outcome if the prospects of a two-state solution in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict collapse? State of intense conflict for years to come Status quo will continue One-state solution in which Israelis and Palestinians are equal Palestinians will eventually surrender to Israeli power 2 1 7

23 Arab-Israeli Conflict What do you believe is the likely outcome if the prospects of a two-state solution in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict collapse? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 State of intense conflict for years to come Status quo will continue One-state solution in which Israelis and Palestinians are equal 9 10 Palestinians will eventually surrender to Israeli power 2 2

24 Arab-Israeli Conflict Which of the following statements is closest to your view about the prospects of lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians? Don t believe it will ever happen Inevitable, but it will take more time Will happen in the next five years

25 Arab-Israeli Conflict Which of the following statements is closest to your view about the prospects of lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 Don t believe it will ever happen Inevitable, but it will take more time Will happen in the next five years 5 4

26 Arab-Israeli Conflict In the current conflict among the Palestinians, with whom do you sympathize most? Fatah Hamas Both to some extent Other / None of the above

27 Arab-Israeli Conflict In the current conflict among the Palestinians, with whom do you sympathize most? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 Fatah 6 8 Hamas Both to some extent Other / None of the above 10 10

28 Arab-Israeli Conflict As you look at the internal Palestinian political divisions, do you prefer to see a: Fatah government Hamas government National unity government Other / Not sure 30 7

29 Arab-Israeli Conflict As you look at the internal Palestinian political divisions, do you prefer to see a: (2010) 36 and over Under 36 Fatah government 6 8 Hamas government 13 9 National unity government Other / Not sure 27 31

30 Arab-Israeli Conflict A solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that leads to the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with East Jerusalem as its capital, will happen only: and over Under 36 Through serious negotiations By being imposed by the UN By being imposed by the United States Through another Arab-Israeli war It will never happen

31 Arab-Israeli Conflict When you look at the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which of the following issues is the most central to you, assuming that they may all be important: 2010 (All) 36 and over Under 36 Establishment of a fully independent contiguous Palestinian state in WBG Arab sovereignty over East Jerusalem Right of Palestinian refugees to return to their homes

32 Arab-Israeli Conflict When you look at the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which of the following issues is the most central to you, assuming that they may all be important: Establishment of a fully independent contiguous Palestinian state in WBG Arab sovereignty over East Jerusalem Right of Palestinian refugees to return to their homes % 31% 21% Egypt 52% 30% 14% Jordan 23% 38% 39% KSA 51% 23% 26% Lebanon 27% 39% 34% Morocco 33% 37% 30% UAE 52% 32% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

33 Arab-Israeli Conflict In your opinion, what has been the most important consequence of the Israeli attack on the Gaza Flotilla? 2010 (All) 36 and over Under 36 Tension in Turkish-Israeli relations International unanimity in condemning Israel Focus on the Gaza blockade and improving chances of its removal Bringing the solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict nearer Challenge it posed to the American position No important consequences Change in the power formula in the region 2 2 2

34 Arab-Israeli Conflict Whom among Palestinian leaders/personalities do you admire most? 2010 (All) 36 and over Under 36 Khalid Meshaal Mahmoud Abbas Marwan Barghouti Ismail Haniyeh Saeb Erekat Shaikh Ahmad Yaseen Salam Fayyad Mustafa Barghouti 5 4 6

35 Empathy

36 Empathy When you watch a movie or a program about the Jewish Holocaust, which of the following is closest to your feelings: 2010 (All) 36 and over Under 36 Resent it as I feel it brings sympathy toward Israel and Jews at the expense of Palestinians and Arabs I have mixed feelings Empathize with the Jews who suffered under the Nazis 3 4 3

37 Empathy When you watch a movie or a program about the Jewish Holocaust, which of the following is closest to your feelings: Resent that it brings sympathy toward Israel & Jews at the expense of Palestinians & Arabs I have mixed feelings Empathize with the Jews who suffered under the Nazis % 29% Egypt 50% 31% Jordan 39% 45% 16% KSA 59% 37% Lebanon 20% 59% 21% Morocco 85% 15% UAE 99% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

38 When you see Palestinian civilian casualties in the conflict with Israel, which TWO of the following best describe your feelings: 2010 (All) 36 and over Under 36 Empathy with the Palestinian victims Arab-Israeli Conflict Need for revenge against Israel Helpless Angry with Arab governments Angry with the US Angry with the Palestinian leadership Same as when I see other humans suffer Palestinians brought it upon themselves 1 0 1

39 Empathy When you see Palestinian civilian casualties in the conflict with Israel, which TWO of the following best describe your feelings: Empathy with the Palestinian victims Helpless Angry with the US Same as when I see other humans suffer Need for revenge against Israel Angry with Arab governments Angry with the Palestinian leadership Palestinians brought it upon themselves % 47% 35% 21% 16% 12% 8% Egypt 55% 51% 41% 15% 16% 16% 6% Jordan 43% 52% 38% 36% 13% 9% 8% KSA 60% 48% 38% 29% 14% Lebanon 38% 40% 32% 40% 15% 15% 19% Morocco 78% 40% 16% 24% 17% 7% 18% UAE 41% 43% 23% 23% 33% 32% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200%

40 Arab-Israeli Conflict When you watch Israeli civilian casualties in the conflict with the Palestinians, which TWO of the following best describe your feelings: 2010 (All) 36 and over Under 36 Empathy with the Israeli victims Revenge for the Palestinians Angry with Israeli leaders Angry with the US Angry with the Palestinians Same as when I see other civilians killed Israelis brought it upon themselves

41 Empathy When you watch Israeli civilian casualties in the conflict with the Palestinians, which TWO of the following best describe your feelings: Empathy with the Israeli victims Angry with Israeli leaders Angry with the Palestinians Israelis brought it upon themselves Revenge for the Palestinians Angry with the US Same as when I see other civilians killed % 35% 18% 9% 75% Egypt 65% 25% 14% 13% 78% Jordan 68% 25% 17% 80% KSA 50% 44% 14% 77% Lebanon 47% 50% 13% 21% 63% Morocco 52% 46% 33% 67% UAE 46% 59% 33% 59% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200%

42 Iran

43 Iran Do you believe that Iran is merely conducting research for peaceful purposes, or trying to develop nuclear weapons? Peaceful purposes Nuclear weapons

44 Iran Do you believe that Iran is merely conducting research for peaceful purposes, or trying to develop nuclear weapons? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 Peaceful purposes Nuclear weapons 55 59

45 Iran There is international pressure on Iran to curtail its nuclear program. What is your opinion? Iran has the right to its nuclear program Iran should be pressured to stop its nuclear program

46 Iran There is international pressure on Iran to curtail its nuclear program. What is your opinion? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 Iran has the right to its nuclear program Iran should be pressured to stop its nuclear program 19 20

47 Iran There is international pressure on Iran to curtail its nuclear program. What is your opinion? Iran has peaceful purposes Iran seeks nuclear weapons Iran has the right to its nuclear program Iran should be pressured to stop its nuclear program 6 27

48 Iran There is international pressure on Iran to curtail its nuclear program. What is your opinion? (Among those who believe Iran has peaceful goals) Iran has the right to its nuclear program Iran should be pressured to stop its nuclear program Egypt 97% 3% Jordan 94% 1% KSA 88% 12% Lebanon 92% 8% Morocco 84% 9% UAE 84% 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

49 Iran There is international pressure on Iran to curtail its nuclear program. What is your opinion? (Among those who believe Iran seeks nuclear weapons) Iran has the right to its nuclear program Iran should be pressured to stop its nuclear program Egypt 81% 16% Jordan 25% 68% KSA 50% 50% Lebanon 31% 67% Morocco 84% 11% UAE 16% 73% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

50 Iran If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, which of the following is the likely outcome for the Middle East region? More positive Would not matter More negative

51 Iran If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, which of the following is the likely outcome for the Middle East region? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 More positive Would not matter More negative 21 21

52 Iran If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, which of the following is the likely outcome for the Middle East region? Iran has peaceful purposes Iran seeks nuclear weapons More positive Would not matter More negative 12 26

53 Iran If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, which of the following is the likely outcome for the Middle East region? (Among those who believe Iran has peaceful goals) More positive Would not matter More negative Egypt 82% 11% 6% Jordan 57% 30% 9% KSA 40% 31% 29% Lebanon 61% 29% 8% Morocco 52% 36% 10% UAE 32% 38% 24% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

54 Iran If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, which of the following is the likely outcome for the Middle East region? (Among those who believe Iran seeks nuclear weapons) More positive Would not matter More negative Egypt 69% 16% 13% Jordan 19% 12% 58% KSA 28% 20% 52% Lebanon 16% 16% 59% Morocco 54% 31% 14% UAE 11% 10% 77% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

55 World View

56 World View In a world where there is only one superpower, which of the following countries would you prefer to be that superpower? France China Germany Britain Russia United States Pakistan 6 5 6

57 World View In a world where there is only one superpower, which of the following countries would you prefer to be that superpower? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 France China Germany Britain 9 9 Russia 9 8 United States 6 7 Pakistan 6 6

58 World View If you had to live in one of the following countries, which one would you prefer most? France China Germany Britain Russia United States Pakistan 2 1 3

59 World View If you had to live in one of the following countries, which one would you prefer most? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 France China 7 6 Germany Britain 8 10 Russia 2 3 United States 7 8 Pakistan 3 2

60 World View If a member of your family had to study in one of the following countries, which country would you prefer most? France China Germany Britain Russia United States Pakistan 2 1 2

61 World View If a member of your family had to study in one of the following countries, which country would you prefer most? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 France China 1 2 Germany Britain Russia 1 1 United States Pakistan 2 2

62 World View Name TWO countries that you think pose the biggest threat to you Israel United States Algeria United Kingdom Iran China Syria 1 1 1

63 Israel World View Name TWO countries that you think pose the biggest threat to you. (2010) 36 and over Under United States Algeria United Kingdom 8 8 Iran 9 11 China 4 3 Syria 0 1

64 World View Which TWO countries, Arab and non-arab, outside your own, are playing the most constructive role in the interest of the Middle East region? 2010 France 30 Turkey Saudi Arabia Egypt UAE Syria Lebanon Germany United States

65 World View Name TWO countries where you think there is the most freedom and democracy for their own people France United States Germany Canada Japan Switzerland United Kingdom Sweden Italy 8 6 7

66 World View Which world leader (outside your own country) do you admire most? Recep Erdogan Hugo Chavez Mahmoud Ahmadinajad Hassan Nasrallah Bashar al-assad Nicolas Sarkozy Osama bin Laden Jacques Chirac Sheikh M. bin Zayed Hosni Mubarak Sheikh M. bin Rashed Saddam Hussein

67 World View Which world leader (outside your own country) do you admire second most? Recep Erdogan Hugo Chavez Mahmoud Ahmadinajad Hassan Nasrallah Bashar al-assad Nicolas Sarkozy Osama bin Laden Jacques Chirac Sheikh M. bin Zayed Hosni Mubarak Sheikh M. bin Rashed Saddam Hussein

68 Identity

69 Identity When your government makes decisions, do you think it should base its decisions mostly on what is best for Muslims Your country Arabs The world

70 Identity When your government makes decisions, do you think it should base its decisions mostly on what is best for (2010) 36 and over Under 36 Muslims Your country Arabs The world 6 5

71 Identity When your government makes decisions, do you think it should base its decisions mostly on What is best for Muslims What is best for Arabs What is best for your country What is best for the world % 31% 23% 5% Egypt 37% 34% 24% Jordan 15% 53% 21% 11% KSA 32% 27% 36% 5% Lebanon 5% 60% 29% 6% Morocco 64% 20% 4% 11% UAE 19% 33% 27% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

72 Identity Which of the following is your most important identity? Muslim Citizen of your country Arab Citizen of the world 4 1 4

73 Identity Which of the following is your most important identity? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 Muslim Citizen of your country Arab Citizen of the world 4 3

74 Identity Which of the following is your most important identity? Muslim Citizen of your country Arab Citizen of the world % 32% 25% 4% Egypt 31% 37% 30% Jordan 16% 58% 19% 6% KSA 47% 19% 34% Lebanon 8% 55% 32% 4% Morocco 61% 25% 4% 10% UAE 23% 34% 31% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

75 Identity Which of the following is your second most important identity? Muslim Citizen of your country Arab Citizen of the world 2 2 5

76 Identity Which of the following is your second most important identity? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 Muslim Citizen of your country Arab Citizen of the world 2 2

77 Which of the following is your most important identity? (1 st & 2 nd choices combined) 2010 Identity Muslim Citizen of your country Arab Citizen of the world 6 3 9

78 Media

79 Media How often do you use the internet, if at all? Almost daily / Several times a week Several times a month / Rarely Never % 31% 28% % 26% 38% % 15% 52% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

80 Media How often do you use the internet, if at all? Almost daily / Several times a week Several times a month / Rarely Never % 31% 28% Egypt 28% 30% 42% Jordan 23% 45% 33% KSA 63% 14% 23% Lebanon 41% 42% 17% Morocco 47% 52% UAE 90% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

81 Media How often do you use the internet, if at all? Almost daily / Several times a week Several times a month / Rarely Never 2010: 36 and over 34% 33% 32% 2010: Under 36 45% 30% 25% 2009: 36 and over 23% 24% 52% 2009: Under 36 46% 27% 27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

82 Media When you watch international news, which of the following network s news broadcasts do you watch most often? Al Jazeera Egyptian network MBC Al Arabiya

83 Media When you watch international news, which of the following network s news broadcasts do you watch most often? 2010 (w/ Egypt) 2010 (w/o Egypt) Al Jazeera Egyptian network 29 3 MBC Al Arabiya 9 13

84 Media When you watch international news, which of the following network s news broadcasts do you watch most often? Al Jazeera Egyptian network MBC Al Arabiya % 29% 11% 9% Egypt 31% 54% 9% 4% Jordan 24% 21% 6% KSA 41% 5% 12% 30% Lebanon 20% 14% Morocco 65% 14% UAE 15% 9% 16% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

85 Media Which network s news broadcast is your second choice? Al Jazeera Egyptian network MBC Al Arabiya

86 Media Which network s news broadcast is your second choice? Al Jazeera Egyptian network MBC Al Arabiya % 12% 8% 22% Egypt 53% 22% 5% 8% Jordan 23% 15% 15% KSA 23% 14% 40% Lebanon 27% 10% 11% Morocco 27% 6% 46% UAE 15% 18% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

87 Media When you watch international news, which of the following network s news broadcasts do you watch most often? (1 st & 2 nd choices combined) Al Jazeera Egyptian network MBC Al Arabiya

88 Media When you watch international news, which of the following network s news broadcasts do you watch most often? (1 st & 2 nd choices combined) % 41% 19% 31% Egypt 84% 76% 14% 12% Jordan 48% 36% 21% KSA 65% 26% 70% Lebanon 47% 24% 14% Morocco 92% 20% 47% UAE 31% 12% 34% 19% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% Al Jazeera Egyptian network MBC Al Arabiya

89 Media What is your primary source for international news? Television Internet Newspapers/Magazines Radio % 8% 5% Egypt 86% 9% 5% Jordan 64% 9% 12% 14% KSA 88% 9% Lebanon 57% 15% 15% 12% Morocco 95% UAE 50% 20% 19% 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

90 Media Which TV channel is your first choice for entertainment? MBC Al Hayat Moga Comedy MBC-2 Rotana Egypt % 9% 8% 5% 5% Egypt 6% 17% 15% 5% 6% Jordan 16% 4% 6% KSA 32% 10% Lebanon Morocco UAE 5% 12% 5% 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

91 Media Which TV channel is your second choice for entertainment? MBC Al Hayat Moga Comedy Rotana Cinema Rotana Nile Comedy Melody Film % 9% 6% 5% 5% 5% Egypt 13% 11% 8% 8% 6% Jordan 10% KSA 12% 9% 7% 5% Lebanon 9% 9% Morocco 6% 8% UAE 16% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

92 Media When you use the internet, do you spend most of your time on language sites? (Among internet users only) Arabic French English Other Total 73% 13% 8% 6% Egypt 70% 6% 9% 15% Jordan 95% 4% KSA 96% 4% Lebanon 88% 5% 6% Morocco 52% 38% 10% UAE 90% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

93 Media When you use the internet, do you spend most of your time on language sites? (Among internet users only) (2010) 36 and over Under 36 Arabic French English 9 8 Other 5 6

94 Media When you watch television, how many days per week do you watch American or European movies, shows or music videos? Daily Total 47% 14% 12% 24% Egypt 49% 13% 13% 22% Jordan 11% 16% 24% 49% KSA 26% 20% 17% 36% Lebanon 37% 24% 16% 22% Morocco 73% 6% 13% UAE 26% 37% 13% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

95 Media When you watch television, how many days per week do you watch American or European movies, shows or music videos? (2010) 36 and over Under 36 Daily

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